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West Region Gas Pipelines
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Cautionary Language Regarding Forward-Looking Statements
This presentation contains forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are identified as any statement that does not relate strictly to historical or current facts. In particular, statements, express or implied, concerning future actions, conditions or events, future operating results or the ability to generate revenues, income or cash flow or to make distributions or pay dividends are forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of performance. They involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions. Future actions, conditions or events and future results of operations of Kinder Morgan Energy Partners, L.P., Kinder Morgan Management, LLC, El Paso Pipeline Partners, L.P., and Kinder Morgan, Inc. may differ materially from those expressed in these forward-looking statements. Many of the factors that will determine these results are beyond Kinder Morgan's ability to control or predict. These statements are necessarily based upon various assumptions involving judgments with respect to the future, including, among others, the ability to achieve synergies and revenue growth; national, international, regional and local economic, competitive and regulatory conditions and developments; technological developments; capital and credit markets conditions; inflation rates; interest rates; the political and economic stability of oil producing nations; energy markets; weather conditions; environmental conditions; business and regulatory or legal decisions; the pace of deregulation of retail natural gas and electricity and certain agricultural products; the timing and success of business development efforts; terrorism; and other uncertainties. There is no assurance that any of the actions, events or results of the forward-looking statements will occur, or if any of them do, what impact they will have on our results of operations or financial condition. Because of these uncertainties, you are cautioned not to put undue reliance on any forward-looking statement.
Privileged and Confidential
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Opening Remarks – Will Brown
Macro Presentation – George Wayne
Break – 15 Min
Business Development Project Update – Greg Ruben
Operational/Pipeline Management Update – Mark Westhoff
Commercial Update/Customer Meeting Logistics – Tim Dorpinghaus
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West Region Gas Pipelines
Chris Meyer President
West Region Gas Pipelines
Curt Moffat V.P. & Deputy
General Counsel
Tom Martin President
KM Gas Pipelines
Allyson Schuur Executive Assistant
Greg Ruben VP
Business Development
Bill Wible VP
Regulatory
Will Brown VP
Business Management
Ray Jordan Director
Account Services
Tim Dorpinghaus Director
Marketing
Billy English Director
Asset Optimization
George Wayne Director
Market Services
Mark Westhoff VP
Pipeline Management
Jim Cordaro Director
Pipeline Mgmt Rockies
Kevin Johnson Director
Pipeline Mgmt DSW
Ken Ulrich Director Bus Dev
Laine Lobban Acct Director
Bus Dev
Tony Sanabria Acct Director
Bus Dev
Tim Mang Acct Director
Asset Optimization
Dan Tygret Acct Manager
Asset Optimization
Marcus Stewart Acct Manager
Keystone Storage
Thania Delgado Acct Manager
Marketing
Mark Iverson Acct Director
Marketing
Steve Newell Acct Director
Marketing
Robin Janes Acct Director
Marketing
Randy Barton Acct Director
Marketing
Damon McEnaney Acct Director
Marketing
Kim Wetzel Sr Analyst Bus Dev
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Kinder Morgan West Region
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George Wayne Director, Market Services
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+9.6 Bcfd Res +1.9 Bcfd
+20.1 Bcfd +1.5 Bcfd -2.0 Bcfd
+7.7 Bcfd
U.S. becomes net exporter Industrial demand growth
Less Canadian Exports to U.S. More U.S. Exports to Mexico Continued supply increases
Gas-fired generation increases
Source: ICF International and Kinder Morgan Analysis
Ind +3.1 Bcfd
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Supply (Dry Gas)
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Wellhead production has declined 0.7 Bcf/d over last year due to continued low rig count
Relative to 2015, declines are projected through 2018, followed by growth as gas prices recover. Only basin with material growth over the next decade is the Denver basin
Horizontal drilling = 65% of all rigs
Powder River activity increasing – 9 rigs
Basin Current Dry Production
MMcf/d
YOY Prod Growth MMcf/d
Current Rigs
Gas/Oil
Green River 2,770 (355) 11/0
Piceance 1,387 (104) 6/0
Uinta 667 (144) 0/7
Denver/Julesburg 1,617 17 0/25
Powder River 371 (71) 0/9
Other 106 (13) 0/1
Total 6,918 (669) 17/41
Rockies Active Rigs
Wellhead Production
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(Volumes are Wellhead – Measured in MMcfd)
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Active Rigs
Oil Production
2016 to 2026 Growth
+1.3 Bcfd +600 MBo/d
DJ Basin rigs almost 50% of total Rockies rigs. Transition to horizontal wells over last 6 years. Increased use of XRL drilling. Anticipate additional rigs added in 2017 –
Anadarko, Noble, PDC, Extraction, BBG
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Drilling activity in the San Juan Basin has been steadily declining. Coal Bed Methane (CBM) is depleting; however, we have started to see some recent horizontal drilling in the CBM. Moreover, since 2012, liquids rich plays are being develop (Gallup) with some optimistic results.
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San Juan Basin Production is expected to decline by approximately 670 MMcf/d over the next decade. Coal Bed Methane depletions are
primary driver of production decline.
Coal Bed Methane accounts for approximately 56% of total
production. Associated gas from the Gallup is projected to grow.
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$2.69
$2.66
$2.73
$2.17
$2.44
Prices are Prompt Month (Jun, 2017) Forwards, volumes are 2017 YTD average. 1Excludes Vancouver, B.C.
Pembina is acquiring Veresen and will continue developing the Jordan Cove LNG export terminal. Key FERC filing milestones expected in late 2017.
Northwest Innovation Works is developing 300 MDth/d Methanol export facility in Kalama, WA. They recently contracted I/T capacity on NWPL and may contract for additional firm capacity on upstream pipelines as needed. Future expansions in OR could bring total Methanol demand to 1 Bcf/d.
Woodfibre B.C. and Pacific NW LNG projects have received full Canadian Gov’t approval, but FID still pending. Woodfibre has begun remediation work at its brownfield site in preparation for possible facility construction.
PNW Demand
NoCal Demand
2016-2017 +240 -228
SUPPLY DEMAND
Sumas 1,114 PNW Demand1 2,490
GTN 2,135
NWPL 326 Malin Deliveries
1,757 Ruby 673
TOTAL 4,247 TOTAL 4,247
Sumas
Ruby Malin A
A
B
C
D
B
C D
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+2.6 Bcfd
+6.5 Bcfd
Most of the Permian Basin supply growth is coming from the Midland and Delaware Basins
based on superior economics. BE $35+/bo Permian Basin Forecast – 400 Rigs
Active Rigs
Oil Production
+3.0 MMBo/d
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Midland
Delaware
Midland and Delaware NGL production eclipsed 2 MMBbls.
Although NGL prices have improved since 2016, they are still not anticipated by the market to exceed pre-2014 pricing in the
next few years.
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Key Interstate Pipeline
Design
Capacity
Bcfd
A EPNG (San Juan Crossover) 0.613
B EPNG South Mainline (Cornudas West) 2.441
C TW (West Texas Lateral) 0.748
D NGPL (Segment 8 Capacity) 0.394
E NNG (Permian system) 0.455
Total Interstate Capacity 4.651
Key Intrastate Pipeline
Estimated
Capacity
Bcfd
F OneOK WestTex Red River* 0.400
G OneOK WestTex Elcor System* 0.143
H Enbridge Palo Duro Pipeline 0.075
I ATMOS 1.000
J Enterprise Texas 1.000
K KM Texas Pipeline 0.205
L Oasis Pipeline (Energy Transfer Fuels) 1.200
M Enterprise Texas 0.560
P Trans Pecos (early 2017) 1.356
Q Comanche Trails (early 2017) 1.135
R OneOK RoadRunner (2016-2018) 0.640
Total Intrastate Capacity 7.714
* OneOK WestTex Transmission – includes the Elcor System between the Permian and El Paso, TX (previously owned by EPNG) and the Red River pipeline between the Permian and the Texas Panhandle. - Elcor System – 20” pipeline with maximum capacity of 143 MMcfd - Red River Pipeline – 24” with maximum capacity between 300 and 400 MMcfd
P
Q
Source: Ventyx data, KM research, CFE
R
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Western markets and Mexico are the high value markets for Permian gas, but they are demand limited
LNG and Mexico exports (South TX) are key drivers for Gulf-
directed Permian gas
Local demand growth is driven by power
generation and processing
Midwest & North Central TX markets are “overflow” for
Permian gas as pipe capacity is
filled
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Without additional western demand or Permian capacity additions to the east,
Permian prices under Rockies and MidCon with continued competition
from AECO and the Northeast.
SoCal Border
MidCon
STX
Cheyenne AECO
Leidy
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Perm
ian
dry
gas
pro
du
ctio
n
Widening of Seasonal Spreads
Spreads Widen Further
Out of
Capacity
Without additional pipeline capacity to the east, Permian price is lower in 2019
with greater seasonal volatility
By 2021 as production continues to grow, eastbound capacity is full; hence, Permian prices lower to compete into
the MidCon
By 2024, Permian production outstrips all takeaway capacity out of the basin
The forward Permian basis narrows in 2020, suggesting the market is expecting expansion capacity to the east (not “yet”
assumed in the fundamental forecast)
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Source: Existing to planned capacity from Velocity Suite; Gas demand impacts derived from ICF International generation forecast data
Given the projections for existing and new renewable power, the West Region may see a
maximum demand destruction in power gen of 3.2 Bcfd (1.8 winter to 4.5 summer) by 2025.
CA natural gas intensity is decreasing while overall U.S. is increasing
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The EIM seeks to optimize generation resources across a broad power market region to reduce costs
and emissions: Minimizes sub-hourly dispatch
Reduces reserve capacity requirements Reduces renewable generation curtailments
Seattle City Light, Portland General Electric, Idaho Power, and Salt River Project will also join the EIM
100-200 MMcfd net impact to WECC region gas demand
Since its inception, EIM has saved $146 MM and averaged 5 MMcfd of reduced gas-fired generation
demand in 2016
Source: CAISO
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Rising gas production in the Permian begins to decrease Permian gas price after 2020. DSW and Mexico demand
increases market price. The net result is an increase in the spread to
Arizona and California; especially during summer peaks.
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Keystone Gas
Storage
Natural gas storage provides value due to
daily, monthly, and seasonal volatility.
Market changes are increasing volatility.
Increasing supply and outflows
Local unforeseen Events
Source: CAISO, ABB, Kinder Morgan Analysis
Growing renewables
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SENER Forecasts demand in Mexico to grow by 1.3 Bcfd between 2016
and 2026
Imports are forecasted to grow by 850 MMcfd between 2016 and 2026
Production in Mexico is forecasted to grow 460 MMcfd from 2016 to 2026
24 GW of renewable power generation capacity being installed
between 2016 and 2030
Currently, there is no existing natural gas storage in Mexico
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MX Import Demand vs. Import Pipe Capacity
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-230
Much of the Northeast, and
much of the Central and West-Central, demand
is supplied by Eagle Ford
Most of the Northwest, West-Central, and some Northeast demand supplied from Rockies and Permian
+700
+440
+380
-20
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Pipeline Capacity in Western Mexico
Sasabe El Paso
Tucson
Hueco
Waha
Guaymas
Topolobampo
Mazatlán
Presidio/ Ojinaga
El Encino
Puerto Libertad
IENova 30” ISD – Jun, 2017
510 mmcf/d
Transcanada 24” ISD – Jun, 2017 202 mmcf/d
Transcanada 30” ISD – Mid 2017 670 mmcf/d
IENova ISD – 2014 36” - 770 mmcf/d Fermaca
ISD – 2013 36” 850 mmcf/d
IENova ISD – May, 2017 42” - 1,350 mmcf/d
Transpecos ET Consortium
ISD – Mar, 2017 42” - 1,356 mmcf/d
Samalayuca
Fermaca ISD – Jan, 2018 42” - 1,500 mmcf/d
La Laguna
Comanche Trails – ET Consortium ISD – Jan, 2017 42” 1,135 mmcf/d
San Elizario/ San Isidro
IEnova - San Isidro to Samalayuca ISD – 2017 24-42” – 1,135 mmcf/d Carso - Sam to Sasabe
ISD – 2018 36” – 472 mmcf/d
ISD – 2015 510 mmcf/d
Aguascalientes
EPNG – South Mainline
• Information sourced from CFE Requests For Proposals and related press releases • ISD – In Service Date (actual or estimated) • mmcf/d – million cubic feet per day
Roadrunner - OneOk Fermaca Consortium
ISD – PH1 Mar, 2016; PH2 Oct, 2016; PH3 2019 30” 170-640 mmcf/d
Fermaca ISD – 2018 42” - 1,150 mmcf/d
KM/MGI/Mitsui - Sierrita PL ISD – Oct. 2014 36” – 201 mmcf/d (431 mmcf/d by 2020
SoCal Border
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Demand growth continues
LNG exports and Power Generation are primary sources of demand growth
Low gas prices incentivize Industrial and Residential growth
Supply growth continues to outpace domestic demand
Supply growth occurs in low-cost, highly productive fields
Fewer imports (Canada) and more exports (LNG and Mexico) provide balance between supply and demand
The Permian is an area of opportunity and challenges
Highly productive with direct access to premium western market and growth in Mexico
Growth may begin to test capacity
Increasing price and basis volatility
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Greg Ruben V.P. Business Development
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Facilities: 4 Cavern Bedded Salt Storage
4 Bcf Working Capacity 400 MM/D Withdrawal/183 MM/D Injection 15,100 HP compression, 16.6 mile 24” lateral to tie into EPNG (1100 Lines), 12.3 mile 16” lateral to tie into EPNG 2000/1600 Lines
Contract: November 2020 in-service
20 year term from final Cavern In-Service (2024)
Provides No-Notice Service to AGS Shippers Negotiations ongoing
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Description Expand capacity of Sierrita by 230 MDth/d;
total revised capacity of 431 MDth/d
Incremental volumes to serve growing
demand in Western Mexico Facilities
New compressor station (~16,000 HP) Transportation Agreement with CFE
19.5 year term
Status
CFE awarded capacity in Open Season:
October 2015
Finalizing compressor site acquisition
Sonora, Mexico
Ehrenberg Phoenix
Sierrita Pipeline
Tucson
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SAN JUAN
PERMIAN
ANADARKO
New Compression
17-mile Pipeline Loop
Ehrenberg Phoenix
El Paso
Waha
Sierrita Pipeline
Description
Expand west flow capability by 271MDth
Incremental volumes to Sierrita and Ehrenberg
Facilities
New compression near Deming and Willcox
17-miles of 30” line loop (Hueco towards El Paso)
Transportation Agreement with CFE
15+ Years
Status
CFE awarded capacity in Open Season: June 2016
Supplemental Open Season closes May 15 to
provide up to 50MDth additional capacity
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EPNG Permian Interconnection Activity
Keystone
Waha
Wink
Gresham
Black River
Cornudas
Eunice
New Mexico
Texas
Carlsbad
Hobbs
Puckett
Line 3
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2
Plains
Guadalupe
Delaware Basin
Midland Basin Central
Platform
Status Receipt (Mcfd)
2012 610,000
2013 615,000
2014 492,000
2015 1,566,200
2016 1,337,200
2017* 3,827,000
* Includes interconnects currently under construction
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EPNG Permian Expansion Projects
Keystone
Waha
Gresham
Black River
Cornudas
Eunice
New Mexico
Texas
Carlsbad
Hobbs
Puckett
Plains
Guadalupe
Orla
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493 KMTP
Expansion Underway
Potential Expansions
LINE 1600
LINE 2000
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CIG line 5A/B expansion project currently underway
190 MDth/d incremental capacity
Open season awarded in March 2017
In-service date targeted for September 2017
~1 Bcf/d of DJ north to Cheyenne Hub expansion potential without laying pipe
400 MDth/d on High Plains
300 MDth/d on CIG 5C
300 MDth/d on Front Range Pipeline
In-service as early as 3rd QTR 2018
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CIG DJ Basin Interconnect Activity
Volume (Mcf/d)
2013 625,000
2014 604,700
2015 236,630
2016 22,300
2017* 428,000
COLORADO
WYOMING
Denver
Colorado Springs
Ft. Collins
* Includes interconnects currently under construction
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Mark Westhoff V.P. Pipeline Management
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DJ Basin
Permian Basin
Rawlins
West Slope
San Juan Basin
Ehrenberg
South Mainline
North Mainline
Wind River Lateral
Cheyenne Plains Colorado Interstate Gas (CIG) El Paso Natural Gas (EPNG) Mojave Pipeline Ruby Pipeline TransColorado Wyoming Interstate Company (WIC)
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Proximity to demand centers
Rapid response to production issues
Coordination with receipt/delivery operators
Mainline flow reversals
Blending rich supplies on Wind River
Utilizing the assets of Western Pipes
Blending limits being reached
Decline of CIG west end receipts
Challenges for west slope deliveries
Pressure maintenance
Denver
Colorado Springs
Cheyenne
Rifle
Trinidad
Rawlins
Wind River Lateral
DJ Basin
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Plains south constraint reversed
San Juan production decline
North mainline utilization decline San Juan Crossover bi-directional Transport capacity usable linepack
Increasing utilization of south mainline
Line 2000 segregation Ehrenberg control valves Higher base linepack More narrow linepack range
San Juan Basin
North Mainline
Ehrenberg
Permian Basin
South Mainline
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Inconsistent with EPNG current operations
Impair effective communications
Create false impressions, nuisance notices
Maintain existing procedures, eliminate limits
7200 MMcf for high probability draft SOC
7000 and 7900 MMcf for low and high SOC
Tariff sections 11.1 (a) (i) (A) and (ii)
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Transport capacity at high utilization
Hard lesson: April 20
Safety related testing and maintenance
Coordination with stakeholders
Focus on those requiring shut in
General capacity impacts demanded much better communication
Going forward
Regular maintenance coordination
Emergent work: detailed analysis and communication
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Tim Dorpinghaus Director, KM West Pipeline Marketing
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Coding and Testing Nominations and Scheduling, Invoicing - 75% Complete Capacity Management – 80% Complete Allocations – 90% Complete Contracts - 100% Complete
Regulatory Update
Tariff changes approved by FERC – order received in November 2016
Customer Training Update WebEx refresher training sessions planned for – August/September (Dates TBD) Will provide in-house assistance for October business nominations (COS) – September
Key Dates
Complete all testing by September 1st Compliance filing for the approved Tariff Changes will be filed in September Open to Customers for October Business September 18th
Additional Questions
Conversion: please email #[email protected] Training: Patty Beavers at 719-520-4321 or [email protected] Training: Evelyn Spencer at 719-520-4753 or [email protected]
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Dinner: Northern Sky Terrace/Rainmakers Ballroom 6pm
Breakfast: Deseo Room 6:30am- 8:30 am
Archers:
Depart from South Terrace at 8:30 am and return at 11:30am
Billy English (719) 433 - 1467
Botanical Gardens:
Depart from South Terrace at 9:00 am and return 12:30pm
Thania Delgado (719) 246 - 2324
Golf:
Pro-shop by 7:00am for 7:30 am tee off
Pro-shop – go out the back of the hotel and turn left
Damon McEnaney (719) 510 - 2219
South Terrace
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