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1 VEYSEL KAYA/SUNSEEDMAN, www.sunseedman.com, [email protected]

THE EXPERT SUPPORT ON REPORTING, ANALYSES, CONSULTING AND BROKERAGE AS PER 21-YEAR SECTOR EXPERIENCE

WEEKLY PANORAMA 18 OCTOBER 2019

PAGE 2 – USD/TL PARITY

PAGE 3 – EUR/USD PARITY

PAGE 4 – PETROL/CRUDE

PAGE 5 – SUNSEED LOCAL MARKETS

PAGE 6 – SUNSEED FOREIGN MARKETS

PAGE 7 – SUNOIL/SUNMEAL LOCAL MARKETS

PAGE 8 – SUNOIL FOREIGN MARKETS

PAGE 9 – SOY COMPLEX MARKETS

PAGE 10 – RAPESEED/CANOLA COMPLEX MARKETS

PAGE 11 – PALM OIL MARKETS

PAGE 12 – WEATHER REPORT

QUOTE OF THE WEEK: Where there is no vision, there is no hope ... George Washington CARVER

http://www.sunseedman.com/

mailto:[email protected]

http://www.quotationspage.com/quote/1362.html



SOURCE : BARCHART

USD/TL PARITY

Weekly Summary: While the parity made an entry to the week with 5.8852 level, it moved at 5.8107 –

5.9414 range and now around 5.815 level.

Bullish Fundementals: Unfortunately, the bloody terror ( lots of martyries and innocent citizens ) is still

underway. Besides, geopolitical troubles ( esp. on Syria and Iraq ) are kept. Dollar is still the strongest

currency against others including Turkish Lira. BREXIT is also quite risky since EU is the biggest export

destination of Turkey. Credit note has been downgraded ( so many critics also recently ). Tension in btw

TR & EU, the main export destination. Conflicts in btw USA and TR on S-400, F-35, Iran, Syria, Iraq, East Mediterranean and Quds/Jerusalem ( Peace Spring Operation ??? ). Confusing results of local elections

including the renewal of Istanbul Municipality Mayor. Turkish Central Bank has significantly cut the interest

rates ( 16.50 vs 19.75% ) by 12 Sep 2019.

Bearish Fundementals: Turkish Central Bank may take the required measures. Reportedly still hot

Money inflows as safety port from the neighboors. The markets do not prefer stronger Dollar. More tourists

potential since Turkey becomes the cheapest destination ( record visits ). Partly friendly ambiance in btw

USA and TR ( Reportedly, 120-hour-pause for Peace Spring Operation to secure Safety Zone and so no

sanctions ). Fed has cut the interest rate by 18 Sep 2019 as 25 basis point and announced the financial

stimulus. ECB has also cut the interest rate and announced the financial stimulus. The local elections are

somehow over and reportedly no Turkish elections till 2023. Current account surplus after 17 years ( 5.1

Mlrd Dollar ).

Our Projection: ?, The direction is still BULLISH as long as it stays over critical 5.5 level. Let’s watch

also political/geopolitical as well as financial developments closely. The developments in btw USA and TR

are really so crucial. Interest rate cuts and financial stimulus from other central banks ??? Peace Spring

Operation ???





SOURCE : BARCHART

EURO/USD PARITY

Weekly Summary: Following 1.1043 level entry to the week, the parity moved at 1.0991 – 1.1139 range

within the week and now moves around 1.1120 level.

Bullish Fundementals: Fed ( started to be dovish and has once cut the interest hike by 18 Sep 2019 as 25

basis points ) and the markets may prefer cautious mode with TRUMP! EU leaders still give the unity messages

after BREXIT ( but opposite parties were stronger in the latest EU Parliamentary elections )! Technical correction

is likely. MERKEL and SDP have agreed on GREAT COALITON with the approval SPD voters as well ( but some

cracks on the immigrant policies recently, plus the political and health future of MERKEL is unknown ). BREXIT

deal hopes.

Bearish Fundementals: UK tries to fulfill the BREXIT process and the approval vote at the Parliament by

this week-end. In EUROZONE, albeit huge financial supports, still mixed economical figures have been

releasing, mainly by Germany, the locomotive. The terror/refugee/safety crisis are underway ( YELLOW VESTS

??? ). Banking crisis in Italy & Spain ( even Germany ) is still troublesome. Greece may also appear suddenly

( No TSIPRAS at all )! Turkey may use refugee card soon! Confusing political Outlook in Italy ( also budget

crisis ) and Spain as well as Germany! Catalonia Liberilization in Spain with possible domino effects! Trade

wars. Iranian Nuke Deal uncertainty. ECB announced its stimulus plan with the troubles in EU and globally.

Our Projection: ??, We suppose that Technical chart implies CONSOLIDATION/DRICTION-SEEKING

trends at 1.10 – 1.15 range. Below 1.10 implies bearish and over 1.15 bullish Outlook.





SOURCE : BARCHART

PETROL/CRUDE

Weekly Summary: Brent Crude made an entry to the week with 60.69 $/Barrel and moved at 58.00 –

60.73 $/Barrel range within the week. Now, it moves around 59.60 $/Barrel as well.

Bullish Fundementals: Speculative funds ( new-price balloons! ) are possible!

Geopolitical/weather/terror/wildfire risks and so output disruptions still go on! USA-Iran tension ( Renewal of

sanctions ??? Withdrawal from Nuke Deal ??? Pressures on the Crude-importer countries from Iran ). USA vs

Middle East tension! Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Persian Gulf, Israel/Jerusalem are also crucial! War tam-tams in

Syria. Trade wars ( esp in btw USA and China ). Political future/coup attempt in Venezuela ( the most Crude

sourced country ) is questionable. OPEC/Non-OPEC will keep lower output policy till Mar20 following the

meeting of 1 – 2 July 2019 as well as other options soon to keep the prices stronger. Drone attacks to Saudi

refinery facilities as well as rocket attack to Iranian tanker.

Bearish Fundementals: Record stocks and outputs still exist in USA nowadays. There are economical

troubles in China, the second Crude consumer as well as in Japan, the third Crude consumer. Iran is still

partly pumping Crude to worldwide markets ( sustainable ??? ). TRUMP makes pressure on OPEC/Non-

OPEC. Global production is also over demand still. US Shale Gas output and Drilling Rigs No may further

recover soon. Somehow solid Dollar. Saudi Arabia/OPEC/Russia may rehike the output soon to compensate

Iran.

Our Projection: ?, below 60 $/Barrel level of BRENT implies TOTALLY DOWNWARD trend!

Nevertheless, let’s watch the OPEC/Non-OPEC meeting and the output applications closely ( esp. Saudis

one ). Let’s also watch geopolitical developments in Middle-East especially. TRUMP is also important! USA-

Iran tension is also crucial! Let’s also do not disclude the tension in Saudi Arabia/Yemen/Israel! War tam-

tams in Syria/Kashmir/Azov Sea ??? Venezuela ??? Libya ???





SOURCE : SUNSEEDMAN

SUNSEED LOCAL MARKETS

Weekly Summary: 18/19 season national acreage ( 590 vs 675 kha of 17/18 ) and old-crop size ( 1.430

vs 1.625 of 17/18 ). Higher import-duties after 22 Aug 2019 ( 27 vs 20% import-duty and 450 $/mt of Reference

Price still ), 650 kha of new-crop acreage and the harvestings at the earlier Cukurova regions are totally over

as well as 99% and 98-99% paces in Thrace and others respectively. New-crop size may be around 1.600

kmt.

Bullish Fundementals: By 22 Aug 2019, the import-duty was once hiked to 27 vs 20% to support local

farmers during the harvesting season. 335 $/mt CIF Marmara price’s import cost is 2.565 TL/mt for 40 basis.

Some lobbies to ban the imports, to extend the legislation change by 1 Feb 2020 ( 13%/380 ) to 1 Mar even

1 Apr 2020 as well as to renew duty-free Tariff Quotas.

Bearish Fundementals: There are financial troubles and refined shelf adulterations. Global old-crop is

the record ( record 52.75 Mln T vs 49.3 ) and the new-crop is also record potential as 53.65 Mln T around.

There’s a dizziness/confusion still in the markets! USD/TL is so volatile to take positions. Weaker Sunseed CIF

offers. Almost gratis local Sunoil and esp. Sunmeal prices.

Our Projection: ??, Let’s be more focused on Sunoil/Sunmeal prices, Legislation, USD/TL parity and

CIF prices. Thracian new-crop prices may be at 2.400 +/- 25 TL/mt range in near term.

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

2400

2600

2800

2016/17 & 2017/18 & 2018/19 & 2019/20 SEASONS LOCAL SUNSEED PRICES

40% BASIS, TL/mt





SOURCE : SUNSEEDMAN

SUNSEED FOREIGN MARKETS

Weekly Summary: In Constanza/Varna, the heart of Sunseed biz in Black Sea, Nov19 new-crop FOB

prices are at 335 - 340 $/mt vs 325 - 330 $/mt of bids. CIF Marmara prices are also at 305 - 310 $/mt vs 335 -

345 $/mt.

Bullish Fundementals: All BSea countries are increasing their crushings to create added-value! Weather

risks globally. Solid Soy and Rapeseed with US and EU weather troubles respectively. Weather risks in BSea

during harvestings of the new-crop. BG/RO new-crop sizes were well-below the forecasts.

Bearish Fundementals: UA/RU achieve huge crushings, so they are available to offer cheaper Sunoil (

as well as Sunmeal ) prices by creating zero/minus crushing margins for other countries. There are many

global financial turmoils and uncertainties. There are trade wars globally. Record global old-crop size (

record 52.75 Mln T vs 49.3 of 17/18 ) and promising/record new-crop prospects. Turkish Crushers are

also focused on local new-crop and not workable imports with new legislation.

Our Projection: ??, 340 $/mt +/- 10 of new-crop CIF Marmara prices are likely. But let’s watch also

weather conditions, Turkish ( and others ) buying interest/legislation and global oilseeds/vegoils and financial

markets!

300

325

350

375

400

425

450

475

500

2016/17 & 2017/18 & 2018/19 & 2019/20 SEASONS SUNSEED IMPORT PRICES

CIF MARMARA, $/MT





SOURCE : SUNSEEDMAN

SUNOIL/SUNMEAL LOCAL MARKETS

Weekly Summary: In Thrace/Anatolia, we lastly noticed the Crude Sunoil prices of around 5.375 +/- 25

TL/mt EXW. Sunmeal prices for 26/28 P were also around only 810 - 830 TL/mt EXW Thrace.

Bullish Fundementals: Less Rapeoil and Safoil adulterations with new legislation by implying more Sunoil

demands locally. Sunoil import duties were still pegged at 36%/1.000 $/mt Referece Price. The Sunoil cost

from imported Sunoil is at least 6.165 TL/mt. Tourism season is still somehow underway with more demands.

Private Label ( approx 40 – 50% share local sales ) prices as 34.95 TL/5 L PET, ie 5.400 TL/mt of Crude Sunoil

conversion. By 22 Aug 2019, the import-duty was once hiked to 27% vs 20 to support local farmers during

the harvesting season. Even 335 $/mt CIF Marmara is 5.785 TL/mt of Crude Sunoil cost ( with 450 $/mt of

Reference Price and 27% of import-duty ). Almost gratis Sunmeal prices will increase the loadings on the

shoulders of Sunoil.

Bearish Fundementals: Real/fair market conditions still do not unfortunately work due to the

adulterations as well as illegal/unethical leakages of imported Sunoil for domestic market. There’s a

dizziness/confusion still in the markets! Government is trying to curb the inflation rate in foodstuffies.

Resumption of duty-free Bosnian and Serbian as well as even Kosovan Sunoil imports. Already active new-

crop crushings. Volatile USD/TL parity to take positions.

Our Projection: ??, With current conjoncture, Crude Sunoil prices may move at 5.375 +/- 25 TL/mt

range gradually. However, especially, USD/TL parity, legislation and Sunseed/Sunmeal local/international

prices will determine actual markets. 26/28 P SFM prices, may stay still sluggish/gratis with active crushings,

lower demands and alternative cheaper feedstuffies.

3400

3650

3900

4150

4400

4650

4900

5150

5400

5650

5900

2016/17 & 2017/18 & 2018/19 & 2019/20 SEASONS LOCAL CRUDE SUNOIL PRICESEXW THRACE, TL/MT





SOURCE : SUNSEEDMAN

SUNOIL FOREIGN MARKETS

Weekly Summary: Sunoil Nov19 delivery FOB Black Sea prices were SLIGHTLY LOWER ( 5 $/mt ) and

now move as 675 - 680 $/mt of buyers vs 685 - 690 $/mt of sellers for FOB UA ( 640 - 645 vs 660 - 670 FOB RU

as well ).

Bullish Fundementals: Weather risks globally may be supportive. Relatively weaker Grivna and Ruble

will promote more exports! Bottom out attacks are further likely ( from the lowest during last 10 years ).

Weather risks in BSea during harvestings of the new-crop. Almost exhausted ARG Sunoil export potential.

Bearish Fundementals: UA/RU Sunoil productions will be still solid/record. There are global economical

risks! Premiums of Sunoil may lessen the demands. 38.5% import-duty in India. Confused alternative vegoils

( foremost Palmoil ). Russia has still significantly less premiums. Sluggish Petrol recently. Aggressive

crusher/exporter sales with abundant/record new-crop crushings.

Our Projection: ?, Sunoil crop Premium vs RBD Palmoil and may be positive still. At this point, 660

+/- 15 $/mt FOB Black Sea ( esp. Russian ) prices are quite likely. Nevertheless, if other vegoils ( Soy, Palm,

Rape etc ) keep climbing/sliding, Sunoil may also partly accompany to this trend. USD/RUB and USD/UAH

parities are also quite crucial! Farmer Sales interests, Sunseed and Sunmeal prices are also so important!

Do not forget Petrol and weather conditions in USA and BSea esp. as well!

650

675

700

725

750

775

800

825

850

2016/17 & 2017/18 & 2018/19 & 2019/20 SEASONS UA CRUDE SUNOIL PRICE

CIF MARMARA, $/MT





SOURCE : BARCHART

SOY COMPLEX MARKETS

Weekly Summary: Soy Complex experienced MIXED mode for FOB cash prices, so Soybean, SoyMeal

and Soyoil have drawn, 5 $/mt, 5 $/mt, and 5 $/mt of the performances respectively.

Huge speculative funds! New significant US biodiesel mandates. Possible global weather anomalies/risks

during growings/harvestings for USA and globally. China somehow keeps up the purchasings. Not-

promising farmer sales interests! There are logistics/strike troubles in South America. ARG is still significant

importer. Higher ARG export taxes. SO DELAYED US PLANTINGS/LOWER ACREAGE/WORSE OUTLOOK. Revised

down USDA US old-crop size and carry-overs. USA/CHINA will the negotiations and reportedly huge

Chinese purchasings recently as gesture. Dryness in Argentina and Brazil.

Bearish Fundementals: China, the biggest destination, has economical troubles. BREXIT jitters and

global economical/geopolical risks are kept. Record US Soy old-crop size and carry-over stocks. Underway

US Soy harvestings. TRUMP uncertainty/trade wars, especially in btw USA and China. Higher old-crop sizes

for South America. Stronger Dollar and sluggish Petrol. South American plantings are underway with higher

acreage forecasts.

Our Projection: ??, Right now, huge global supplies still, promising South American old-crop sizes

and cheaper prices, record US stocks, BREXIT, stronger Dollar, sluggish Petrol, TRUMP’s uncertainty and

Chinese angst/trade wars may be BALANCED vs weather risks globally and USA, lower USDA US Spring19

Soy acreage, delayed plantings and worse conditions, lower farmer sales, logistics troubles, strike risks.

Neverthless, weather conditions in USA especially will be the main determinant soon. Besides, Fed and

TRUMP’s policies and so Dollar Index as well as Chinese economical Outlook are also important. 925 +/- 25

range is reasonable for CBOT Soy! Please also pay attention to BREXIT and Chinese demand/trade war

policies!





SOURCE : BARCHART

RAPESEED/CANOLA COMPLEX MARKETS

Weekly Summary: French MATIF Rapeseeds were STEADY to SLIGHTLY LOWER as EUR/mt, AND Rotterdam

Rape Oil was also LOWER. In Turkey, CIF Marmara Rapeseed prices were at 400 - 405 $/mt and local Rapeoil

and Rapemeal prices were 4.800 +/- 50 TL/mt and 1.350 +/- 50 $/mt respectively. Enlarged Turkish FALL18

planting acreage and so 225 kmt of new-crop size. Fall19 plantings were also over.

Bullish Fundementals: Weather risks globally! Lower new-crop size for EU-28 ( 17.25 Mln T vs 20 ).

Somehow sluggish EUR/USD parity nowadays. Promising Chinese buying appetite globally. Lower Australian

and Canadian crop sizes. China is seeking alternative origins due to trade wars with Canada. Somehow

solid Soybean prices globally.

Bearish Fundementals: Global economical risks make pressure. BREXIT is confusing. Reference Price by

Turkey ( 1.000 x 0.10 = 100 $/mt of duty ). USD/TL parity is also so volatile to take position. Lower import duties

for ARG biodiesel by implying probably lower demands for EU Rapeoil. Turkish 2018/2019 new-crop size

forecast is around 225 kmt vs 115 of 17/18. China/Canada trade war.

Our Projection: ??, Weather risks, stronger Soybean and lower global Rape crop sizes may be

BALANCED vs sluggish Petrol, ARG biodiesel imports, BREXIT and global economical risks. Please pay

attention to weather conditions as well as Petrol! Do not forget also Chinese policies!





SOURCE : SUNSEEDMAN

PALM OIL MARKETS

Weekly Summary: Malaysian Palmoil markets were ALMOST FLATTISH ( ). Now, it moves around 535 -

540 $/mt for RBD Palmoil FOB Malaysia Nov19 shipment.

Bullish Fundementals: El-Nino created below-average yields with drier conditions in Malaysia

especially. Somehow weaker Ringgit promotes Palmoil exports. More supplies may be shifted to biodiesel

in Malaysia and Indonesia ( especially albeit US import-duty ). Prices try to bottom out. Malaysia keeps no

export tax by Oct19 as well. Somehow solid alternative vegoils. Recovered exports ( 1 – 15 Oct 2019, AMSPEC, 2% ).

Bearish Fundementals: There are overall demand anxieties globally, esp. China and EU. Carcinogen

accusations and Palmoil biodiesel ban ( for 2020 even 2030 programme ) in Europe. Huge stocks ( 2.45 Mln

T by end-Sep19 vs 2.25 of end-Aug19 ). Trade wars globally, esp. in btw USA and China. Sluggish Petrol. Recovered output ( Sep19, 1% ) seasonally. Sluggish exports ( SGS/ITS, 6-9% by 1 – 15 Oct 2019 ).

Our Projection: ??, Global weather risks, partly weaker Ringgit, somehow solid alternative vegoils,

cancelled export tax may be NEUTRAL vs sluggish Petrol, higher output seasonally, huge stocks, lower

demands and global trade wars and economical risks and so RBD Palm Oil FOB Malaysia prices may move

at 525 - 550 $/mt range. In the future; Crude, Soyoil, global economical conditions ( esp. India, China and

EU ) and weather conditions ( La-Nina, El-Nino etc ) will determine the direction. Attention for BREXIT and

TRUMP’s policies!

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2016/17 & 2017/18 & 2018/19 & 2019/20 SEASONS MALAYSIAN RBD PALM OIL

FOB, $/MT





BLACK SEA & SOUTH-EAST ASIA & SOUTH AMERICA & USA 1-WEEK PRECIPITATION MAP ( SOURCE: NOAA )

In Black Sea; following mostly drier and warmer conditions throughout the week, once

msotly drier and warmr conditions are likely soon. Winter crop plantings are underway.

Sunflower harvestings are also underway ( almost over in Balkans, 92 - 93% in UA and 65%

in RU as well ).

In Thrace; following mostly warmer and drier conditions within the week, once mostly

drier and warmer conditions are likely soon. Sunflower harvestings are virtually over with

98% pace. Also over Fall19 Rapeseed plantings and almost over Paddy Rice harvestings.

In South Asia; in addition to recent rainy conditions in Indonesia and Malaysia during the

week, once rains are likely for Palm Oil areas. In India; rainy conditions may prevail soon.

In South America; Sunflower plantings are over at northern earlier areas and now

expanding to central and southern areas gradually. Soybean plantings were also

initiated by trials. Brazilian Soy plantings are underway ( 15 – 20% being behind earlier

seasons ). However, drier conditions recently, but promising wetter forecasts soon.

In USA; Corn/Soybean/Sunflower harvestings are underway ( 35% Soybean pace being

well-behind earlier season ). There were also frost risks at northern parts. Current Outlook

is also mostly worse than recent years and soon also so mixed/volatile weather forecasts

with further new-crop size risks.

BY MONDAY, LET’S KEEP UP BLACK SEA SUN COMPLEX UPDATE MARATHON WITH BULGARIA…

© SUNSEEDMAN This report has been launched complimentarily and all a/m comments, news and prices contained herein are believed reliable. SUNSEEDMAN does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete. SUNSEEDMAN will not accept any responsibility of losses or damages with the relevant comments and prices. Any uses of reproduction, dissemination, copying, disclosure, modification, distribution and/or publication are strictly prohibited.

WEATHER REPORT



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