global and regional new-crop outlook for...
TRANSCRIPT
GLOBAL AND REGIONAL NEW-CROP OUTLOOK
FOR OILSEEDS
01 NOVEMBER 2018, Varna/BULGARIA
GRAIN ACADEMY 2018
AGENDA
1-OILSEEDS OUTLOOK GLOBALLY
2 – OILSEEDS OUTLOOK IN BLACK SEA
3 – 2018/19 NEW-SEASON PROSPECTS
4- PRESENTATION SUMMARY
OILSEEDS OUTLOOK GLOBALLY
IN 2017/18 SEASON;
WORLD OILSEEDS OUTPUT WAS RECORD AROUND
565 MLN T.( 16/17, 560 )
HOWEVER, BY 17/18 SEASON,THE OUTPUT OF OILSEEDS WAS
LOWER THAN WHEAT AND EVEN THE HALF OF CORN.
- CORN, 1.04 MLRD T ( 16/17, record 1.08
),
- WHEAT, 760 MLN T ( 16/17, 750 ),
- OILSEEDS, 565 MLN T ( 16/17, 560 ),
- RICE, 490 MLN T ( 16/17, 485 ).
SOYBEAN WAS
THE LOCOMOTIVE
OF OIILSEEDS WITH OVER 60% SHARE.
IN 2017/18 SEASON;
- SOYBEAN, 340 MLN T ( 16/17, record 350
),
- RAPESEED, 70 MLN T ( 16/17, 68 ),
- SUNSEED, 49.2 MLN T ( 16/17, 50.25
),
- COTTONSEED, 44.5 MLN T ( 16/17, 39 ).
OILSEEDS OUTLOOK IN BLACK SEA
IN OUR PRESENTATION;
WE WILL TRY TO PROVIDE OILSEEDS OUTLOOK FOR
MAJOR BLACK SEA COUNTRIES INCLUDING
TURKEY, UKRAINE, RUSSIA ROMANIA, BULGARIA,
MOLDOVA AND KAZAKHSTAN.
1- TURKEY
TURKEY IS THE NET OILSEEDS IMPORTER COUNTRY AND THE MAIN DESTINATION
FOR BLACK SEA OILSEEDS EXPORTERS.
TURKISH OILSEEDS OUTPUT ( KMT )
Sunseed 1.625 51%Cottonseed 1.350 43%
Soybean 125 4%
Rapeseed 45 1% Safflowerseed 30 1%
2017/18 Season, 3.175 KMT total
Source: SUNSEEDMAN
AS IT'S SEEN;
SUNSEED IS THE MOST RAISED OILSEED OF
TURKEY.
COTTONSEED ALSO HAS BIG SHARE.
HOWEVER, OTHER OILSEEDS ARE JUST MINOR ONES.
IN 2017 CALENDAR YEAR;
TURKEY IMPORTED 3.29 MLN T OF OILSEEDS
AND SOYBEAN WAS THE BIGGEST ONE WITH
2.34 MLN T & 71% SHARE.
TURKISH OILSEEDS IMPORTS ( KMT )
Soybean 2.341 71%
Sunflower 610 18%
Rapeseed 29,5 1%CornGerm 91 3%
Safflowerseed 91 3%
Sun Flour 4 0%
Linseed 121,5 4%
2017 Calendar Year, 3.29 Mln T total
Source: TURKSTATS
IN 2017 CALENDAR YEAR;
TURKEY PAID
3.24 MILLIARD USD
FOR THE IMPORTS OF
OILSEEDS & DERIVATIVES.
IN 2017 CALENDAR YEAR;
TURKEY EXPORTED
ALMOST NIL OF OILSEEDS.
2- UKRAINE
UKRAINE IS THE NET OILSEEDS EXPORTER
COUNTRY AND THE BIGGEST SUPPLIER OF
OILSEEDS & DERIVATIVES IN BLACK SEA.
UKRAINIAN OILSEEDS OUTPUT ( KMT )
Sunseed 13.500 67%
Soybean 4.450 22%
Rapeseed 2.300 11%Linseed 50 0%
2017/18 Season, 20.3 Mln T total
Source: SUNSEEDMAN & OIL WORLD
AS IT'S SEEN;
SUNSEED IS THE LEADER OILSEED OF UKRAINE AS WELL.
BOTH RAPESEED AND SOYBEAN OUTPUTS ARE ALSO GETTING
HIGHER IN RECENT YEARS.
IN 2017/18 SEASON,
UKRAINE;
- RAISED 20.3 MLN T OF GLOBAL OILSEED OUTPUT OF
565 MLN T, IE 3.6% SHARE.
- RAISED 13.5 MLN T OF GLOBAL SUNSEED OUTPUT OF
49.2 MLN T, IE 27.5% SHARE.
IN 2017 CALENDAR YEAR;
UKRAINE EXPORTED 5.2 MLN T OF OILSEEDS
AND SOYBEAN WAS THE BIGGEST ONE WITH
2.87 MLN T & 55% SHARE.
UKRAINIAN OILSEEDS EXPORTS ( KMT )
Soybean 2.866 55%
Sunflower 142 3%
Rapeseed 2.137 41%
Linseed 57 1%2017 Calendar Year, 5.2 Mln T total
Source: OIL WORLD
DUE TO AROUND 10% EXPORT-DUTYAND LUCRATIVE LOCAL PRICES,
ALMOST ALL OF UKRAINIAN SUNSEED HAS BEEN CRUSHED LOCALLY
AND SO
UKRAINE BECOMES THE LEADER GLOBAL SUNOIL AND SUNMEAL
EXPORTER BY CREATING ADDED-VALUE.
IN 2017 CALENDAR YEAR;
UKRAINE IMPORTED ALMOST NIL OF
OILSEEDS EXCEPT HYBRID PLANTING
SEEDS.
3- RUSSIA
RUSSIA IS THE NET OILSEEDS IMPORTER
COUNTRY ( THE SECOND BIGGEST IMPORTER AFTER TURKEY ), BUT ALSO THE
SECOND BIGGEST EXPORTER OF SUNOIL AND SUNMEAL IN BLACK SEA.
RUSSIAN OILSEEDS OUTPUT ( KMT )
Sunseed 11.250 66%
Soybean 3.700 22%
Rapeseed 1.500 9%
Safflowerseed 100 0% Linseed 575 3%
2017/18 Season, 17.13 Mln T total
Source: SUNSEEDMAN & OIL WORLD
AS IT'S SEEN;
SUNSEED IS ONCE THE LEADER OILSEED OF
RUSSIA AS WELL.
BOTH RAPESEED AND SOYBEAN OUTPUTS ARE ALSO GETTING
HIGHER IN RECENT YEARS.
IN 2017/18 SEASON,
RUSSIA;
- RAISED 17.13 MLN T OF GLOBAL OILSEED OUTPUT OF
565 MLN T, IE 3.0% SHARE.
- RAISED 11.25 MLN T OF GLOBAL SUNSEED OUTPUT OF
49.2 MLN T, IE 23% SHARE.
IN 2017 CALENDAR YEAR;
RUSSIA EXPORTED 1.660 KMT OF OILSEEDS
AND LINSEED WAS THE BIGGEST ONE WITH
533 KMT & 32% SHARE.
RUSSIAN OILSEEDS EXPORTS ( KMT )
Soybean 520 31%
Sunflower 315 19%
Rapeseed 192 12%
Safflowerseed 100 6%
Linseed 533 32%
2017 Calendar Year, 1.660 kmt total
Source: OIL WORLD
DUE TO 6.5% EXPORT-DUTY
( IN EFFECT SINCE SEP 1, 2016 VS 9.88% EARLIER ) AND LUCRATIVE LOCAL PRICES,
ALMOST ALL OF RUSSIAN SUNSEED HAS BEEN CRUSHED LOCALLY
AND SO
RUSSIA ALSO BECOMES AMIDS SIGNIFICANT GLOBAL SUNOIL AND SUNMEAL EXPORTERS BY
CREATING ADDED-VALUE.
IN 2017 CALENDAR YEAR;
RUSSIA IMPORTED 2.54 MLN T OF OILSEEDS
AND SOYBEAN WAS THE BIGGEST ONE WITH
2.24 MLN T & 88% SHARE.
RUSSIAN OILSEEDS IMPORTS ( KMT )
Soybean 2.237 88%
Sunflower 105,5 4%
Rapeseed 34 1% Groundnuts 139 5%
Sesameseed 14 1%
Linseed 16 1%
2017 Calendar Year, 2.54 Mln T total
Source: OIL WORLD
4- ROMANIA
ROMANIA IS THE NET OILSEEDS
EXPORTER COUNTRY ( THE BIGGEST GLOBAL SUNSEED EXPORTER, ).
ROMANIAN OILSEEDS OUTPUT ( KMT )
Sunseed 2.500 53%
Soybean 350 7%
Rapeseed 1.900 40%
Linseed 5 0%2017/18 Season, 4.76 Mln T total
Source: SUNSEEDMAN & OIL WORLD
AS IT'S SEEN;
SUNSEED IS ONCE THE LEADER OILSEED OF ROMANIA AS WELL.
BOTH RAPESEED AND SOYBEAN OUTPUTS HAVE BEEN ALSO
GETTING HIGHER IN RECENT YEARS.
IN 2017/18 SEASON,
ROMANIA;
- RAISED 4.76 MLN T OF EU-28 OILSEED OUTPUT OF
35 MLN T, IE 13.5% SHARE.
- RAISED 2.5 MLN T OF EU-28 SUNSEED OUTPUT OF
9.85 MLN T, IE 25% SHARE.
IN 2017 CALENDAR YEAR;
ROMANIA EXPORTED 3.14 MLN T OF OILSEEDS
AND RAPESEED WAS THE BIGGEST ONE WITH
1.53 MLN T & 49% SHARE.
ROMANIAN OILSEEDS EXPORTS ( KMT )
Soybean 272 9%
Sunflower 1338 42%Rapeseed 1.530 49%
2017 Calendar Year, 3.14 Mln T total
Source: OIL WORLD
IN 2017 CALENDAR YEAR;
ROMANIA IMPORTED 500 KMT OF OILSEEDS
AND SUNSEED WAS ONCE THE
BIGGEST ONE WITH 275 KMT & 55% SHARE.
ROMANIAN OILSEEDS IMPORTS ( KMT )
Soybean 133 27%
Sunflower 275 55%
Rapeseed 77 15%
Groundnuts 12 2% Sesameseed 3 1% 2017 Calendar Year, 500 kmt total
Source: OIL WORLD
5- BULGARIA
BULGARIA IS ALSO THE NET OILSEEDS
EXPORTER COUNTRY ( THE SECOND BIGGEST GLOBAL
SUNSEED EXPORTER ).
BULGARIAN OILSEEDS OUTPUT ( KMT )
Sunseed 1.950 79%
Soybean 35 2%
Rapeseed 475 19%
Groundnut 5 0%2017/18 Season, 2.47 Mln T total
Source: SUNSEEDMAN & OIL WORLD
AS IT'S SEEN;
SUNSEED IS ONCE THE LEADER OILSEED OF BULGARIA AS WELL.
RAPESEED OUTPUT ALMOST STAGNATES AND THERE ARE SOME
SOYBEAN OUTPUT TRIALS .
IN 2017/18 SEASON,
BULGARIA;
- RAISED 2.47 MLN T OF EU-28 OILSEED OUTPUT OF
35 MLN T, IE 7.0% SHARE.
- RAISED 1.95 MLN T OF EU-28 SUNSEED OUTPUT OF
9.85 MLN T, IE 20.0% SHARE.
IN 2017 CALENDAR YEAR;
BULGARIA EXPORTED 1.25 MLN T OF OILSEEDS
AND SUNSEED WAS THE BIGGEST ONE WITH
785 KMT & 63% SHARE.
BULGARIAN OILSEEDS EXPORTS ( KMT )
Soybean 4 0%
Sunflower 785 75%
Rapeseed 255 25%
2017 Calendar Year, 1.25 Mln T total
Source: OIL WORLD
AS SUNFLOWER;
BULGARIA EXPORTS
- OIL-BEARING/TO BE CRUSHED,- DEHULLED ( LEADER GLOBALLY ),- SUNFLOWER FLOUR
( BY PRODUCT OF DEHULLING SECTOR )
IN 2017 CALENDAR YEAR;
BULGARIA IMPORTED 240 KMT OF OILSEEDS
AND SUNSEED WAS ONCE THE
BIGGEST ONE WITH 178 KMT & 74% SHARE.
BULGARIAN OILSEEDS IMPORTS ( KMT )
Soybean 5 2%
Sunflower 178 74%
Rapeseed 43 18%
Groundnuts 14 6%2017 Calendar Year, 240 kmt total
Source: OIL WORLD
6- MOLDOVA
MOLDOVA IS ALSO THE NET OILSEEDS
EXPORTER COUNTRY ( THE MAIN ORIGIN OF TURKISH
SUNSEED IMPORTS).
MOLDOVIAN OILSEEDS OUTPUT ( KMT )
Sunseed 900 88%
Soybean 50 5%Rapeseed 70 7%
2017/18 Season, 1.020 kmt total
Source: SUNSEEDMAN & OIL WORLD
AS IT'S SEEN;
SUNSEED IS ONCE THE LEADER OILSEED OF MOLDOVA ( INCLUDING
TRANSNISTRIA ) AS WELL.
THERE ARE ALSO SOME LOWER RAPESEED AND SOYBEAN
OUTPUTS.
IN 2017 CALENDAR YEAR;
MOLDOVA EXPORTED 602 KMT OF OILSEEDS
AND SUNSEED WAS THE BIGGEST ONE WITH
521 KMT & 86.5% SHARE.
MOLDOVIAN OILSEEDS EXPORTS ( KMT )
Soybean 18 3%
Sunflower 521 87%
Rapeseed 63 10%
2017 Calendar Year, 602 kmt total
Source: OIL WORLD
IN 2017 CALENDAR YEAR;
MOLDOVA IMPORTED ONLY 4 KMT OF OILSEEDS ( MOSTLY HYBRIDS )
INCLUDING SOYBEANS, SUNFLOWER AND
GROUNDNUTS.
7- KAZAKHSTAN
KAZAKHSTAN IS ALSO
THE NET OILSEEDS EXPORTER COUNTRY.
KAZAKH OILSEEDS OUTPUT ( KMT )
Sunseed 850 42%
Soybean 250 12%
Cottonseed 140 7%
Linseed 550 27%
Rapeseed 250 12%2017/18 Season, 2.04 Mln T. total
Source: OIL WORLD & SUNSEEDMAN
AS IT'S SEEN;
SUNSEED IS ONCE THE LEADER OILSEED OF
KAZAKSTAN.
THE COUNTRY IS ALSO ONE OF THE BIGGEST
GLOBAL LINSEED PRODUCERS/EXPORTERS.
IN 2017 CALENDAR YEAR;
KAZAKHSTAN EXPORTED 540 KMT OF OILSEEDS
AND LINSEED WAS THE BIGGEST ONE WITH
292 KMT & 54% SHARE.
KAZAKH OILSEEDS EXPORTS ( KMT )
Soybean 17 3%
Sunflower 152 28%
Linseed 292 54%
Rapeseed 79 15%
2017 Calendar Year, 540 kmt total
Source: OIL WORLD
IN 2017 CALENDAR YEAR;
KAZAKHSTAN IMPORTED ONLY
30 KMT OF OILSEEDSINCLUDING 14 KMT OF
GROUNDNUTS, 9 KMT OF SUNSEED AND 7 KMT
SOYBEAN
2018/19 SEASON GLOBAL & REGIONAL
PROSPECTS
IN 2018/19 NEW-SEASON
OUR GLOBAL SUNSEED NEW-CROP SIZE FORECAST ARE
AS FOLLOWINGS;
- UKRAINE, 15.0 MLN T ( 17/18, 13.50 ),
- RUSSIA, 12.0 MLN T ( 17/18, 11.25 ),
- EU-28, 9.5 MLN T ( 17/18, 9.85 ),
- ARGENTINA, 3.75 MLN T ( 17/18, 3.45 ),
- CHINA, 3.0 MLN T ( 17/18, 2.9 ),
- TURKEY, 1.430 KMT ( 17/18, 1.625 ),
- USA, 900 KMT ( 17/18, 975 ),
- TOTAL, record 51.4 MLN T ( 17/18, 49.2 ), 2.2 MLN T
IN 2018/19 NEW-SEASON
OUR REGIONAL SUNSEED NEW-CROP SIZE FORECAST ARE
AS FOLLOWINGS;
- UKRAINE, 15.0 MLN T ( 17/18, 13.50 ),
- RUSSIA, 12.0 MLN T ( 17/18, 11.25 ),
- ROMANIA, 2.5 MLN T ( 17/18, 2.5 ),
- BULGARIA, 1.9 MLN T ( 17/18, 1.95 ),
- TURKEY, 1.43 MLN T ( 17/18, 1.63 ),
- MOLDOVA, 950 KMT ( 17/18, 900 ),
- KAZAKHSTAN, 850 KMT ( 17/18, 850 ),
- TOTAL, 34.63 MLN T ( 17/18, 32.58 ), 2.05 MLN T
IN 2018/19 NEW-SEASON
OUR GLOBAL RAPESEED NEW-CROP SIZE FORECAST ARE
AS FOLLOWINGS;
- CANADA, 21.0 MLN T ( 17/18, 21.25 ),
- EU-28, 19.5 MLN T ( 17/18, 22.0 ),
- CHINA, 7.5 MLN T ( 17/18, 9.0 ),
- INDIA, 6.75 MLN T ( 17/18, 6.5 ),
- AUSTRALIA, 2.25 MLN T ( 17/18, 3.85 ),
- UKRAINE, 2.7 MLN T ( 17/18, 2.3 ),
- RUSSIA, 2.0 MLN T ( 17/18, 1.5 ),
- TOTAL, 66.15 MLN T ( 17/18, 70.0 ), 3.85 MLN T
IN 2018/19 NEW-SEASON
OUR REGIONAL RAPESEED NEW-CROP SIZE FORECAST ARE
AS FOLLOWINGS;
- UKRAINE, record 2.70 MLN T ( 17/18, 2.3 ),
- RUSSIA, record 2.0 MLN T ( 17/18, 1.5 ),
- ROMANIA, 1.7 MLN T ( 17/18, 1.9 ),
- BULGARIA, 425 KMT ( 17/18, 475 ),
- KAZAKHSTAN, 250 KMT ( 17/18, 250 ),
- TURKEY, 115 KMT ( 17/18, 45 ),
- MOLDOVA, 70 KMT ( 17/18, 70 ),
- TOTAL, 7.26 MLN T ( 17/18, 6.54 ), 720 KMT
IN 2018/19 NEW-SEASON
OUR GLOBAL SOYBEAN NEW-CROP SIZE FORECAST ARE
AS FOLLOWINGS;
- USA, record 128 MLN T ( 17/18, 120 ),
- BRAZIL, record 121 MLN T ( 17/18, 119.5),
- ARGENTINA, 52 MLN T 17/18, 35 ),
- CHINA, 15 MLN T ( 17/18, 16.0 ),
- INDIA, 10.35 MLN T ( 17/18, 8.35 ),
- PARAGUAY, 10 MLN T ( 17/18, 9.8 ),
- CANADA, 7.5 MLN T ( 17/18, 7.75 ),
- TOTAL, record 370 MLN T ( 17/18, 340 ), 30 MLN T
IN 2018/19 NEW-SEASON
OUR REGIONAL SOYBEAN NEW-CROP SIZE FORECAST ARE
AS FOLLOWINGS;
- UKRAINE, 4.40 MLN T ( 17/18, 4.45 ),
- RUSSIA, record 4.1 MLN T ( 17/18, 3.7 ),
- ROMANIA, 325 KMT ( 17/18, 350 ),
- KAZAKHSTAN, 250 KMT ( 17/18, 250 ),
- TURKEY, 100 KMT ( 17/18, 125 ),
- MOLDOVA, 50 KMT ( 17/18, 50 ),
- BULGARIA, 25 KMT ( 17/18, 35 ),
- TOTAL, 9.25 MLN T ( 17/18, 8.96 ), 290 KMT
AS IT'S SEEN;
GLOBAL SUNSEED AND ESPECIALLY SOYBEAN
NEW-CROP SIZES WILL BE HIGHER, BUT RAPESEEDOUTPUT WILL BE LOWER
IN 2018/2019 SEASON.
AS IT'S ALSO SEEN;
BLACK SEA SUNSEED, RAPESEED AND SOYBEANOUTPUTS WILL BE HIGHER
IN 2018/2019 SEASON.
PRESENTATION
SUMMARY
• BLACK SEA IS THE HEART OF GLOBAL SUNSEEED OUTPUT AND TRADE.
• UKRAINE & RUSSIA ARE GLOBAL LEADERS IN SUNSEED OUTPUT AND THE
EXPORTS OF SUNOIL & SUNMEAL.
• ROMANIA IS THE BIGGEST GLOBAL SUNSEED EXPORTER.
• SUNSEED NEW-CROP SIZE IN BLACK SEA BY 2018/19 SEASON WILL BE AT RECORD
34.63 MLN T BEING 2.05 MLN T MORE THAN 2017/18 SEASON.
• BLACK SEA IS RATHER SMALL PART OF GLOBAL RAPESEED OUTPUT ( 66.15 MLN T )
WITH ONLY 11% SHARE ( 7.26 MLN T ).
• RAPESEED NEW-CROP SIZE IN BLACK SEA BY 2018/19 SEASON WILL BE HIGHER
WITH RECORD UKRAINIAN AND RUSSIAN NEW-CROP ALBEIT BALKAN LOSSES.
• BLACK SEA MAY BE NEGLIGIBLE FOR GLOBAL SOYBEAN OUTPUT WITH ONLY 2.5%
SHARE.
• NEVERTHELESS, UKRAINE IS THE BIGGEST IMPORT ORIGIN OF TURKEY.
• SOYBEAN NEW-CROP SIZE IN BLACK SEA BY 2018/19 SEASON WILL BE ALSO
SLIGHTLY HIGHER VS 2017/18 SEASON.
• WITH RECORD NEW-CROP SIZES, ESPECIALLY FOR LOCOMOTIVE SOYBEAN, THE
PRICES OF OILSEEDS & DERIVATIVES MAY BE UNDER PRESSURE DURING 2018/19
SEASON. WEATHER CONDITIONS AND US/CHINESE TRADE WARS ARE CRUCIAL.
Great thanks for your kind attention…
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