water for agriculture in 2050: are we ready?
TRANSCRIPT
Based on a paper by Uma Lele, Herve Plusquellec and Richard Reidinger
The Borlaug Summit on Wheat for Food Security, Cd. Obregon, Mexico
25-28 March 2014
Water for Agriculture in 2050: Are We Ready? Uma Lele
“Fierce national competition over water resources has prompted fears that water issues contain the seeds of violent conflict. If the entire world’s peoples work together, a secure and sustainable water future can be ours.” (Kofi Annan, World Water Day 2002).
“We need to move beyond the ‘complacency of denial mode.” (Mihir Shah, member of India’s Planning Commission, February 24, 2011; Keynote Speech, Global Water Partnership (GWP) and International Water Management Institute (IWMI) Workshop, Colombo, Sri Lanka).
“Growing water related conflicts will be Asia’s defining crisis of the 21stcentury.” (Chellaney 2011).
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
Total Renewable Water Resources per capita (actual) by Country (m3/inhab/yr)
1958-1962 2008-2012
Source: Lele and Associates, based on the AQUASTAT database, FAO.
Low and Declining Per Capita Water Availability is Leading to Intense
Competition
Latest Example: California Ag: 1% of GDP 66% of Water Use
Globally 42% of Production from 16 percent of Area For developing countries– ◦ 21 percent of arable land, and 49 percent of all crop
production from Irrigation ◦ 60 percent of cereal production from Irrigation
◦ R and D on Rain fed Agriculture only now beginning to
receive attention in policy and investments--- barring LAC
Source: Alexandratos, N., and J. Bruinsma. (2012). World Agriculture Towards 2030/2050: The 2012 Revision. ESA Working Paper No. 12-03. Agricultural Development Economics Division, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
Large and Medium Scale Surface Irrigation—Largely Public Sector-- about 100m hectares.
Public + Farmer Managed—Irrigation Management
Transfers, also known as PIM Farmer Managed—Tube wells, Sprinklers, Drip Traditional Farmer Managed Peri-Urban
Public Private Partnerships –Contract Farming
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Groundwater Irrigated Area as Percentage of Area Equipped for Irrigation by Region (%)
(2009)
Source: Lele and Associates, based on AQUASTAT database . http://www.fao.org/nr/aquastat and FAO. 2012. FAOSTAT database . http://faostat.fao.org/
Northern Africa 1.8%
Sub-Saharan Africa 0.3%
Northern America 15%
Central America and Caribbean
0.5%
Southern America 1.7%
Middle East 10%
Central Asia 1%
South Asia 45%
East Asia 17%
Western and Central Europe
6%
Eastern Europe 0.8%
Oceania 1%
Area Irrigated by Groundwater (2009) Total= 117.2 (million ha)
Source: Lele and Associates, based on AQUASTAT database . http://www.fao.org/nr/aquastat and FAO. 2012. FAOSTAT database . http://faostat.fao.org/
Drilling of Tube wells Sprinklers Drip Little or No Reliable Data on these changes Little and Fragmented Regulation and absence of
comprehensive water policies. On the Contrary Subsidies for Promotion of Water
Use combined with subsidies for power
Holistic? Australia Israel China Morocco State of Gujarat in India Very Limited Research on improving Water Management or Water
conservation—IWMI’s Water for Food study? Few Independent studies of Impacts Almost no Studies that measure outcomes ◦ zero tillage, Direct Seeding, AW & D, PIM, Watershed development
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
100000
196
1
196
2
196
3
196
4
196
5
196
6
196
7
196
8
196
9
197
0
197
1
197
2
197
3
197
4
197
5
197
6
197
7
197
8
197
9
198
0
198
1
198
2
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3
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4
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5
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6
198
7
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8
198
9
199
0
199
1
199
2
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3
199
4
199
5
199
6
199
7
199
8
199
9
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
Total Area Equipped for Irrigation by Region (1000 ha)
(1961-2011)
South Asia
East Asia
Europe and Central Asia
Northern America
Latin America and Caribbean
Sub-Saharan Africa
Source: : Lele and Associates, based on FAOSTAT data
Oceania North Africa
South-Eastern Asia
Western Asia
Distribution of Electric and Diesel Pump-sets in South Asia
Source: Tushaar Shah (2009) Climate change and groundwater: India’s opportunities for mitigation and adaptation.
+3 million of Drip Irrigation
0
2000000
4000000
6000000
8000000
10000000
12000000
14000000
US
A
Uzb
ekis
tan
Ind
ia
Ch
ina
Ru
ssia
Uk
rain
e
Bra
zil
Ka
zak
hst
an
Fra
nce
Ita
ly
So
uth
Afr
ica
Sp
ain
Sa
ud
i A
rab
ia
Ca
na
da
Aze
rba
ija
n
Ger
ma
ny
Au
stra
lia
Tu
rkey
Ira
n
Eg
yp
t
Ro
ma
nia
Ja
pa
n
Mex
ico
Slo
va
k R
ep
Ko
rea
Mo
rocc
o
Hu
ng
ary
Mo
ldo
va
Gre
at
Bri
tain
Sy
ria
Isra
el
Fin
lan
d
Ma
law
i
Po
rtu
ga
l
Bu
lga
ria
Ch
ines
e T
aip
ei
Ch
ile
Cze
ch R
ep
Slo
ven
ia
Ph
ilip
pin
es
Po
lan
d
Ma
ced
on
ia
Lit
hu
an
ia
Ma
lay
sia
Est
on
ia
Sprinkler Irrigated Area (Hectares)
Sprinkler Irrigated Area by Top Countries (Data provided by The International
Commission on Irrigation and Drainage (ICID) for 45 Countries)
Source: Lele and Associates, based on data available at http://www.icid.org/icid_data.html, The International Commission on Irrigation and Drainage (ICID)
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
1600000
1800000
2000000
Ind
ia
Ch
ina
Sp
ain
US
A
Ita
ly
Ko
rea
So
uth
Afr
ica
Bra
zil
Ira
n
Mex
ico
Sa
ud
i A
rab
ia
Au
stra
lia
Isra
el
Tu
rkey
Eg
yp
t
Fra
nce
Sy
ria
Ja
pa
n
Uk
rain
e
Ru
ssia
Po
rtu
ga
l
Ch
ile
Ka
zak
hst
an
Mo
ldo
va
Fin
lan
d
Ch
ines
e T
aip
ei
Mo
rocc
o
Po
lan
d
Hu
ng
ary
Ph
ilip
pin
es
Ca
na
da
Gre
at
Bri
tain
Ma
law
i
Ger
ma
ny
Ma
lay
sia
Cze
ch R
ep
Ro
ma
nia
Bu
lga
ria
Slo
va
k R
ep
Uzb
ekis
tan
Ma
ced
on
ia
Slo
ven
ia
Est
on
ia
Aze
rba
ija
n
Micro Irrigated Area (Hectares)
Micro Irrigated Area by Top Countries (Data provided by The International Commission on
Irrigation and Drainage (ICID) for 45 Countries)
Source: Lele and Associates, based on data available at http://www.icid.org/icid_data.html, The International Commission on Irrigation and Drainage (ICID). Note: Data is not available for
Lithuania.
50
100
150
200
250
300
Ba
se
Ye
ar
19
61=
10
0
Agricultural Total Factor Productivity (TFP) Growing in Some Regions more than others (1961-2010)
Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia Lag in
TFP Growth
Source: : Lele and Associates, based on Fuglie’s Excel Sheet , available at http://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/international-agricultural-productivity.aspx#.Uyt24qiSxvY
Sub-Saharan Africa (Except South Africa)
Latin America and Caribbean
North America
North East Asia
South-East Asia South Asia
Middle East and North Africa
Oceania
50
100
150
200
250
300B
as
e Y
ea
r 1
96
1=
10
0
Agricultural Total Factor Productivity (TFP) Index Growth by Key Countries
(1961-2010)
Source: : Lele and Associates, based on Fuglie’s Excel Sheet , available at http://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/international-agricultural-productivity.aspx#.Uyt24qiSxvY
India
China
Brazil
Mexico
Indonesia Pakistan
United States
Real Agricultural Prices Have Fallen Since 1900, Even as World Population Growth Accelerated
Source: USDA, Economic Research Service using Fuglie et al 2012. Depicted in the chart is the Grilli-Yang agricultural price index adjusted for inflation by the U.S. Gross Domestic Product implicit price index. The Grilli-Yang price index is a composite of 18 crop and livestock prices, each weighted by its share of global agricultural trade (Pfaffenzeller et al 2007). World
population estimates are from the United Nations.
Total Agricultural Products Exports by Region (Export Value in Million$) (Real=Nominal/MUV) (MUV Index 2000=100)
(1970-2010)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
900019
70
197
1
197
2
197
3
197
4
197
5
197
6
197
7
197
8
197
9
198
0
198
1
198
2
198
3
198
4
198
5
198
6
198
7
198
8
198
9
199
0
199
1
199
2
199
3
199
4
199
5
199
6
199
7
199
8
199
9
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
Source: Lele and Associates, based on FAOSTAT data and World Bank MUV Index
Africa
North America
Latin America and Caribbean
East Asia
South Asia
South-East Asia
Rest of Asia
Europe
Oceania
Rainfed
Groundwater Surfacewater
Sustainability
Equity Efficiency
2050 Challenge
9 Billion+ in 2050: Cereal Production (Net of Biofuels) Increase by 60 percent over 2005 level
to meet demand growth of 1.1 percent annually down from 2.2 percent in the past 4 decades
Cereals production must increase by 940 million tonnes to reach 3 billion tonnes;
Meat production must increase by 196 million tonnes to reach 455 million tonnes; and
Oil crops must increase by 133 million tonnes to reach 282 million tonnes.
On Demand Side On Supply Side
Population Growth
--All in LDCs Slowing Yield Growth
Income Growth
--Mostly in LDCs Climate Change
Urbanization
--Up from 50 percent to 70 percent
Limits to Land, Water, Soils, Biodiversity,
Forests, Fisheries
Shift in Food Consumption Patterns
--Rice, Wheat, Maize, Soybeans for Feed
Last Frontiers?
---LAC, SSA, Eastern Europe
Biofuels
--Maize, Oilseeds
Increased Market Related Risks and
Uncertainty
Processed Foods DE capitalization of Agriculture
--Investment in R and D
Lele, Agarwal and Goswami, AAEA 2011
Projected Impact of Climate Change
None include water, nutrients, policy-induced restrictions on agricultural land expansion
Range in Price Behavior from small decline to increase
Impacts of Biofuels will depend on policies
Biggest Decline in Production to come from Climate change
Martin von Lampe et al, Agricultural Economics 45 (2014) 3–20
Arable Irrigated Land Will Increase Very little by 2050: Equipped and in Use (million ha) (1960-2050)
Source: Alexandratos and Bruinsma 2012.
Latin America and SSA Major Source of Growth Actual and Projected Growths of Area Equipped for Irrigation by Region
(1961-2050)
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
196
119
63
196
519
67
196
919
71
197
319
75
197
719
79
198
119
83
198
519
87
198
919
91
199
319
95
199
719
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
112
013
20
152
017
20
192
02
12
02
32
02
52
02
72
02
92
03
12
03
32
03
52
03
72
03
92
04
12
04
32
04
52
04
72
04
9
Source: Lele and Associates, based on Schmidhuber’s Excel Sheet 2013
Sub-Saharan Africa
Latin America and Caribbean
South Asia
East and South-East Asia
Near East and North Africa
Increasing Efficiency and Productivity of Water of Utmost Urgency
2 Billion People Living in river and lake basins in two or more countries,
148 countries with territory within one or more trans
boundary river basins, 30 countries lay entirely within them.
Over 90 percent of the population lives in countries
with shared basins . Asia, Europe, and Africa have well over 60 basins each (
nearly 2 billion people worldwide depend on groundwater
Approximately 300 trans boundary aquifer systems (The Facts and Figures - UN Water 2013, http://www.unwater.org/water-cooperation-2013/water-cooperation/facts-and-figures/en/)
Basins at Risk
Over Billion people Limited information on their water resources Huge Potential Findings of two recent World Bank studies:
◦ Lack of data and analysis results in over-
expectations-Nepal/India
◦ Lack of progress on agreements-- Egypt/Ethiopia because of preconceived notions in Egypt?
Public Irrigation Systems underperforming
Poor O and M
Delays in implementation
Absence of incentives to improve performance
Lessons of Experience
Modernize irrigation systems do not just rehabilitate
Adopted Improved Management Practices
Increase Water Charges After Improving Delivery of Water Services, (Quantity, quality, reliability, predictability, adequacy)
China Investments in R &I $ 32.5 Billion annually over 10 years India $13 b annually
State ownership of Natural Resources
Unitary Government
Engineers in Charge
Legal reforms
Mostly expansion of surface irrigation
Canal Lining
Water Users’ Associations
Rapid Implementation
28 States Responsible for Water Management and Agriculture
A Mix of public, private ownership of water
Decentralized System of planning and implementation
Delays in implementation
Poor performance of Surface Irrigation
Public Expenditure in Irrigation and Net Irrigated Area in India
0
6
12
18
24
30
36
42
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006
Ne
t ir
rig
ate
d a
re
a (
mil
lio
n h
a)
Ex
pe
nd
itu
re
in
Ir
rig
ati
on
(B
illi
on
US
D 2
00
5 c
on
sta
nt
pr
oc
es
)
Expenditure-major and medium irrigation Expenditure-minor irrigation
Expenditure-Command area development Trend-net irrigated area-canals
Trend-net irrigated area-tanks Trend-Net irrigated area-groundwater
Source: Unpublished paper by Mehta and Shah.
(C+E+N) Agric. Extension & research
7%
(F+I+J) Animal Production
2%
(G+L+M)Crops 8% (O)Forestry
5%
(H)Irrigation & Drainage 32%
(P+Q)General Ag. 11%
(R)Public Admin-Agriculture
1%
(K+S+T)Agric. Marketing and Trade +
Agro-industry 7%
Agriculture adj. 15%
Agricultural cred 12%
Irrigation Highest Share of IBRD-IDA Commitments Among Agricultural Sub-sectors
(MUV Index 2000=100) (1960-2011) (%)
Total=116.6 US$ Billions
Source: Lele and Associates, based on World Bank Projects and Operations Data. http://www.worldbank.org/projects/.
82 World Bank Funded Irrigation and Drainage Projects in India (1953-2013)
Source: Lele and Associates, based on data source http://www.worldbank.org/en/country/india/projects/all?s
ector_exact=Irrigation+and drainage&qterm=&lang_exact=English
Source: Lele and Associates, based on World Bank data, Available at http://ieg.worldbankgroup.org/content/ieg/en/home/ratings.html Note: Marginally satisfactory and above includes Highly satisfactory, Moderately satisfactory, Satisfactory and Marginally satisfactory
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
India China Brazil Mexico Indonesia Pakistan Bangladesh
SHARE OF MARGINALLY SATISFACTORY AND ABOVE (%) (Overall Ratings on Agriculture and Rural Development)
SHARE OF MARGINALLY SATISFACTORY AND ABOVE (%) (Ratings on Irrigation & Drainage Only)
Share of the 176 Irrigation and Drainage and 517 Agriculture and Rural Development Projects among the World Bank’s Seven Largest
Borrowers, Rated Marginally Satisfactory and Better
Total Area Harvested for Cereals (million ha) (1961-2012) (Brazil, China, India and
Indonesia)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
196
1
196
4
196
7
197
0
197
3
197
6
197
9
198
2
198
5
198
8
199
1
199
4
199
7
20
00
20
03
20
06
20
09
20
12
Brazil China India Indonesia
Total Cereals Yield (hg/ha) (1961-2012) (Brazil, China, India and Indonesia)
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
196
1
196
4
196
7
197
0
197
3
197
6
197
9
198
2
198
5
198
8
199
1
199
4
199
7
20
00
20
03
20
06
20
09
20
12
Brazil China India Indonesia
Source: Lele and Associates, based on FAOSTAT data
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
Nu
mb
er
of
Irr
iga
tio
n &
Dr
ain
ag
e p
ro
jec
ts
Co
mm
itm
en
ts(U
S$
Bil
lio
n)
(Re
al=
No
min
al/
MU
V)
MUV Index 2000=100
Number of Irrigation & Drainage Projects Funded by IBRD-IDA and Total
Commitments to Irrigation & Drainage (US$ Billion) (Real=Nominal/MUV)
(1960-2011)
Number of projects IBRD-IDA Commitments to Irrigation & Drainage
Source: Lele and Associates, based on World Bank data
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
Nu
mb
er
of
Wa
ter
Se
cto
r P
ro
jec
ts w
ith
I&
D C
om
po
ne
nt
Wa
ter
Se
cto
r L
oa
ns
an
d G
ra
nts
(U
S$
Bil
lio
n)
(Re
al=
No
min
al/
MU
V)
Number of Water Sector Projects with I&D Component Funded by ADB
and Total Water Sector Loans and Grants with I&D Sector (US$ Billion)
(Real=Nominal/MUV) (1969-2011)
Number of projects
Total Water Sector Loans and Grants with I & D Component (Billion USD)
Waterpart (Billion USD)
Source: : Lele and Associates, based on Asian Development Bank Data
A movement that has spread throughout the world Evaluation of IMWI’s Program Mixed record of success: China, Mexico, vs. India Piecemeal information on Impacts of Transfer
Agreements on quantity or quality of water service delivery
E.g. Improved Operation and Maintenance ? Improved productivity
Source: ASTI as reported in Beintema and Stads (2011)
Dearth of Independent Impact Evaluations
Zero tillage—reasonable impact at scale, but less about water saving than soil management
Direct Seeding—Unclear benefits
W and D in Water Management
System of Rice Intensification?
Globally and Country by Country
Improve and Disseminate Data on Irrigation and Water Use at all levels
Substantially Increase R and D on water and water use efficiency and water productivity
Improve incentives for water conservation
Focus on Measuring Improved Outcomes
Recognize Jevon’s Effects of Change in irrigation technologies at the macro level
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
40019
61
196
3
196
5
196
7
196
9
197
1
197
3
197
5
197
7
197
9
198
1
198
3
198
5
198
7
198
9
199
1
199
3
199
5
199
7
199
9
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
20
17
20
19
20
21
20
23
20
25
20
27
20
29
20
31
20
33
20
35
20
37
20
39
20
41
20
43
20
45
20
47
20
49
Without Resource Conservation Global Gap in Agricultural Total Factor Productivity (TFP) Indices Will increase over time (1961-2050)
Source: : Lele and Associates, based on Fuglie’s Excel Sheet , available at http://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/international-agricultural-productivity.aspx#.Uyt24qiSxvY
Sub-Saharan Africa (Except South Africa)
Latin America and Caribbean
North America
North-East Asia
South-East Asia
South Asia
Oceania
Middle East and North Africa
[TFP Index (2010=100) with projections]
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