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Europe’s Food & Agriculture in

2050A critical analysis of prospective reports

Course on Advanced Studies

“Europe 2050. Trends and Challenges”

Institute for European Global Studies, University of Basel (05-04-2016)

JOSE LUIS VIVERO POL PhD Research Fellow in Food GovernanceCentre for Philosophy of Law/Earth & Life Institute

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THIS IS EUROPE

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Food Insecurity (unability to eat meat every second day): 10.9%.

13.5 M people2.7% increase since austerity

measures

30 M Malnutrition (Transmango Project)

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EUROPA leaving many behind

because food is not a right

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• 123 M poor EU people (1/4) (Oxfam, 2015)

• 50 M severe material deprivation: food, water…(EUROSTAT, 2015)

• 2009-15, + 7.5 M poor

• 30-40% children (6 EU members) below poverty line (UNICEF, 2014)

• Increasing children at school with no breakfast (UK, Netherlands, Spain)

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No RtF in EU: How is that possible?• NOT in European Social Charter• NOT in any EU constitution• NOT in MDGs & SDGs narrative

• Proposal in Belgium: National Food Policy Council including whole food chain (Eggen, 2014)

• Proposal in Spain: RtF in Constitution• European Citizen´s Initiative + EP:

water as human right + commons • Universal Food Coverage (non-existing)

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Countries supporting RtF

Few countries investing in the Right to Food

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RECAP: Europe´s Food Security in 1 min

• 1945-1980: Increase production at any cost• 1980-2008: Production reached. So…quality,

lower prices, commodification (biofuels, financialisation, long chains, global trade)

• 2008-2016: Two food crises. Climate change will threat Food. Limited resources (water, soil, P, N). Obesity

• 2016-2050: Securing Food Supply. More trade. Common Food Policy

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Global food system: crisis & transition • Rising Obesity / Steady Hunger (2.3 billion): We eat badly• Inefficient (wasting one third, yields stagnated, few crops)• The way we produce/eat food is main driver of climate

change & moving beyond planetary boundaries• Population as a threat but world produces enough food for all• Diet transition towards more meat (less efficient, less healthy)

Food kills peopleOBESITY: 3.4 million deaths annually, 1120 million people by 2030 (Ng et al. 2014; Kelly et al. 2008)

HUNGER: largest contributor to maternal-child mortality worldwide, 3.1 million children (Black et al. 2013).

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Commodification (C) of food as major driver

• (C) dominant force since XIX (Polanyi, 1944; Sandel, 2013; Sraffa, 1960)

• (C): development of traits that fit with mechanized processes• Human-induced social construct that denies non-economic

attributes of food in favour of its tradable features (durability, external beauty, standardisation, cheap calories, food miles)

• (C) crowds out non-market values and the idea of food as something worth caring about (Sandel, 2012).

• (C) root cause of crisis (Magdoff, 2010; Zerbe, 2009; Kloppenburg, 2004).

• Food speculation as ultimate alienation of food from its primary value-in-use (feeding people)

• Metabolic rift between consumers and distant producers• Food agency restricted “sovereign act of consuming”

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Business as usual

TRANSMANGO: 4 scenarios to analyse

OtherTransitions

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Causal links & Incidence Share

Based on heuristics and ideologies

Where do we want to go? Agency in Transition

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Global Food Security 2030

Joint Research Centre

Foresight research with ideological stance and biased worldview

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Scientific facts or Ideological Positions?Imagining beyond the permitted ideas

Food security is securing the supply of food that answers the emerging demand

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1.- Demand-driven Food Systems

• Consumer Sovereignty (individual consumer is the king, societal citizen is secondary)

• Private satisfaction VS common good• Responsible consumer behaviour• Influencing power of commercials, media,

subsidized agriculture, cheap prices (absent)• Empowerment of consumer: Where is the

state?

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• Are we safe by a low cost food system? Not healthy, not diverse, not sustainable

• Food deserts in US (what´s consumer´s choice?)• Unhealthy ultra-processed food (one Macdonald = 1 Euro)

• GMO Labeling war in US (Maine, California)

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The right to food is not mentioned

• Although food is legally-technically a human right for EU institutions & members, it is not politically endorsed (Vivero & Schuftan, in press)

Free Trade – Corporate Driven• Sustainable intensification (PPPs driven, Hawkes & Buse, 2011)

• Pro-poor Enabling Environment• Freer & more transparent Markets & Trade (EuroGroup?)

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Setting public health objectives & policies is simply not an appropriate role for the private sector. They shall be excluded from decision making processes.

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Current free trade is detrimental to Global SouthDeadlock in WTO Doha Round: the Global South is against

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De Schutter (2011)

“The food bills of LDCs increased five- or six-fold between 1992 and 2008. Imports now account for around 25 per cent of their current food consumption.

These countries are caught in a vicious cycle. The more they are told to rely on trade, the less they invest in domestic agriculture. And the less they support their own farmers, the more they have to rely on trade,”

De Schutter (2011). The World Trade Organization and the Post-Global Food Crisis Agenda: Putting Food Security First in the International Trade System.

JRC Report Recommendations1. Food products liberalised2. Food safety standards more stringent3. Demand-driven, market-supplied4. “Feeding the World = Feeding the cities” (70% of hungry people are rural producers)

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Decentralised entities having a larger role in food governance (municipal, cities)

Culture of innovation from the ground up

World Food Governance cannot be restricted to WTO, but broader than CFS (Rome)…Do they mean G-20, G-8, WEF?

POSITIVE REFLECTION

S

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No mention to food as vital need

No food as cultural determinant

Food as opportunity for trade, innovation, health, wealth & geopolitics (p.34)

No food as human right

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What would happen if…international trade in agriculture broke down? (p.34-35)

JRC: Positive prospects

THIS IS THE EUROPEAN FOOD SYSTEM

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Food security in compliance with societal requirements

Fair income

Singularity of the agricultural

sector

Reasonable consumer

price

Guiding Principles of

EU CAP 1962-2016

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1962: produce more + good prices for farmersGuaranteed Prices & Shared Funding1992: From market to producer support1990s: Organic farming & food quality2000: Rural Development2003: CAP REF (market oriented & conditionality)2000s: Open Food Trade (EBA) What do we do with farmers?2007: Farming population doubles2011: CAP REF (competitiveness). Climate Change, Rural Landscapes, employment, leisure, innovation

2014: CAP is 40% of EU Budget52 Billion Euro (0.43% of EU GDP)

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• Farmers represent 5.4 percent of the EU’s population. Yet they receive 40 percent of the EU’s total budget through CAP.

• Bigger farmers are the greatest beneficiaries, with 20% of farmers estimated to receive 74% of funding

• Europe’s taxpayers hand over €52 billion in subsidies

EU AGRICULTURE´S SHARE• 12 million farms in the European Union (2010). • Around 10 million persons are (directly) employed in

agriculture, representing 5% of total employment • Farm Structure Survey (FSS) indicates that 25 million people

were regularly engaged in farm work (agriculture + non-agriculture) in the EU during 2010

Source: EU Agricultural Economics Briefs No 8 | July 2013. How many people work in agriculture in the European Union? An answer based on Eurostat data sourceshttp://www.ecpa.eu/information-page/agriculture-today/common-agricultural-policy-cap 31

Why so much for so few?

Although not recognized publicly, food is not like other commodities. It is “the special one”

In 1985, around 70% of EU budget went to agriculture

“Agriculture's relatively large share of the EU budget is entirely justified; it is the only policy funded almost entirely from the budget. This means that EU spending replaces national expenditure to a large extent”

“The average EU farmer receives less than half of what the average US farmer receives in public support”

Source: http://ec.europa.eu/budget/explained/myths/myths_en.cfm

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-9,000

-8,000

-7,000

-6,000

-5,000

-4,000

-3,000

-2,000

-1,000

+0

+1,000

+2,000

+3,000

+4,000

+5,000

+6,000

+7,000

DE

-8,7

74

IT -4

,101

FR -3

,843 NL

-2,6

78 SE -1

,463

UK

-844

BE

-721

DK

-543

AT

-356

FI -3

19

LU -2

2

CY

-18

MT

30

SI 1

14

EE 2

27

LV 4

07

IE 5

66

BG

670

SK 7

26

LT 8

43

HU

1,1

12

CZ

1,17

8

RO

1,5

81 PT 2

,695

ES 2

,813

PL 4

,442

EL 6

,280

Net payers position to EU per Member State, 2008, in EUR million

EU 15

EU 12

België

33

0

100

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300

400

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600

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Finl

and

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EU

27

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mbu

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EU

15

Bul

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Ger

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Mal

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Average payment per hectare per MS

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Proposals for an EUCOMMON

FOOD POLICY

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To guarantee school meals for all

students in public schools

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To support local purchase (small farming, agro-ecology & cooperatives) to satisfy food needs of municipal premises 38

Stricter & innovative rules to avoid food waste

To recycle all expired food (i.e. France)

Supporting citizens´ collective

actions to reduced waste, promote food sharing

and co-producing39

Shifting from charitable food (Food Banks) to food as right (Universal Food Coverage)

A food bank network that is universal, accountable, compulsory and not voluntary, random, targeted

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Compulsory rooftop greening for every new building (with edibles, non-edibles)

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Establishing bakeries where every citizen can get access to a bread loaf every day (if needed or willing to)

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Encourage Food Policy Councils (open

membership to citizens) through participatory

democracies, financial seed capital and enabling

laws43

Set target for food provisioning in 2030 (Food Council)

• 60% private sector• 25% self-production (collective

actions) • 15% state-provisioning (public

buildings, destitute people, unemployed families) through Universal Food Coverage 

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Eager to exchange on food as a commons

Many uncertainties & gaps remain to be developed in a common way combining praxis with normative

social constructs

@joselviveropol

joseluisviveropol

http://hambreyderechoshumanos.blogspot.com

http://hungerpolitics.wordpress.com

Jose Luis Vivero Poljoseluisvivero@gmail.com