Water and Political Economy of Food in Pakistan within a climate

change context

Pervaiz Amir(Asianics Agro Dev-Pakistan)

St. Catherine’s CollegeOxford University, UK

Storyline

Climate Change Scenario of Pakistan and its glaring water crisis(mismanagement at all levels)

Political Economy of Water- embedded in history, feudalism, military dictatorship and a weak democratic base, extremism the haves vs. have not's, the great divide, poverty and unprecedented growth

Core issues and Challenges : 1. Justice and Governance 2. Break down of law and order (suicide attacks) 3. Food and Energy led inflation 4. Water based productivity/ profitability food insecurity, corruption, terrorism and partial war like situation on borders with cross boundary implications

Resulting Chaos, food insecurity and instability- constraints, opportunities, comparative advantage and choices within a dynamic political economy

Political set-up Three parties with

fragmented political influences and interests

Inter and intra conflicts Baluchistan and

Wazirizstan

Afghanistan, Iran, Kashmir

Neighboring Giants-India and China

Pakistan Waters after IBTThe Indus River System, Pakistan

4

Source: WAPDASSSSSou

World’s Largest and perhaps oldest contiguousIrrigation system. Extensive investment that is crumbling due To mismanagement and lack of investment in repair and maintenance

Here is where the Resource is concentrated

5

Afghanistan

India

Pakistan

China

70% of the water is storedThreatened by climate changeChallenging Pakistan’s Existence

6

Distribution of Water in Main Rivers of Pakistan

% of IRS Inflows

% Seasonal Distribution

Dominant Source in Summer

Dominant Source in

WinterSummer Winter (Apr-Sep)(Oct-Mar)

Indus 44 86 14 Snow/Glacial meltWinter

Rainfall + Baseflow

Chenab 19 83 17Snow/Glacial melt +

Monsoon

Winter Rainfall + Baseflow

Jhelum 16 78 22Mainly Snow melt +

Monsoon

Winter Rainfall + Baseflow

Kabul 16 82 18 Snow/Glacial meltWinter

Rainfall + Baseflow

Others 5

The Core Water Problems explained

CSource: internet

Recent Climatic Trends in Pakistan

Rise in mean temperature of 0.6-1.0°C in arid coastal areas, arid mountains and hyper arid plains. Projected 30—40% decline in rainfall and precipitation but with rising intensity of rainfalls during monsoons

0.5 to 0.7% Increase in solar radiation over southern half of country.

3-5% decrease in cloud cover in central Pakistan with increase in sunshine hours.

5% increase in net irrigation water requirement with no change in rainfall. Source: Pakistan Meteorological Department

“As of 2 July 900 people had been killed, 250, 000 made homeless and 1.5 million affected in some way by the storms. The 2007 monsoon represents the worst disaster to have hit Pakistan since the cataclysmic earthquake of October 2005 that left 73,000 dead and three million displaced. ( Source Pakistan’s Political Monsoon Graham Usher Al-Ahram Weekly, 11 July 2007”

It never snowed in Islamabad, people in Karachi took out winter jackets for first time in their lives, micro cloud bursts, all mountains near Quetta covered with heavy snow– still Baluchistan is most arid and drought prone

Climate Change and natural Hazards

Droughts and Floods in Pakistan

Dying watersKilling Floods

Pakistan faces both floods and droughts

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Projected Changes in Average Temperature of Northern and Southern Pakistan

(Corresponding to IPCC A2 Scenario) S

Expe

E

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1990s 2020s 2050s 2080s

Period

Tem

per

atu

re C

han

ge

(°C

)

northern pp Pakistan southern pp PakistanNorthern Pakistan Southern Pakistan

Expect increase in Wheat Production 15% (3 % area)

Expect decline of 15-20% in wheatAnd other crops (80% area)

Source: GCISC

Glooms and Opportunities

There is plenty of water around the sea that remains un-utilized. Mixing with some fresh water can bring un-precedented changes in agriculture productivity

Pakistan is a large country with 60% of its lands still under-explored. Resettlement is costly but not impossible. Out migration to urban areas Will have its own set of problems and opportunities-different type of agriculture

The time frame for glacier melt is 45 years. With wise decisions “ make the the best out of the worst”

We are certain about the temperatures but uncertain about precipitation-Can prayers help!

Water Politics Rights and Entitlements tied to land and embedded in history and laws of inheritance 90% water in agriculture (rest industry 3%, drinking 2%, and other uses) no Min flows

in rivers 40-50% less water this year. Cries from Sindh and Punjab- Wheat crop looks quite

hopeless (disease, weed and grain shrivelling) Upper vs. lower riparian- major conflict- will test political acumen Lack of trust, transparency-and overall water mismanagement Failure to agree on storage for irrigation, hydropower, regulation “dams contentious” High political cost of decision making-indecision and ad-hoc pluralism Threats fro Hydro-terrorism Planned vs. unplanned transformation/adaptation Rapidly changing Environment-Behavior and System Performance But Still>>>>>>>! SBP chief upbeat on growth despite political turmoil

FRANKFURT, Dec 5, 2007 : Pakistan’s economy should grow at least 7 per cent in the year to June 2008, central bank chief Shamshad Akhtar said despite the political turmoil besetting the nation (Dawn Newspaper).

Haves and Have Not's in Political Economy

Food Security

• Produces 22-24 Million tones of wheat. Now declining and dangerous disease and weed situation

• Major shift in surplus vs. deficit districts. Out of 120 district settings in Pakistan, 74 (62%) were found to be food deficit in terms of net availability. This deficit varies ranging from low through high to extreme degree. Wheat, a staple, catering for 48% of caloric needs in Pakistan, was found deficit in terms of net availability and the shortage was estimated at 3.2 million tons annually. Out of 120 districts, only 48 (40%) were producing surplus or enough to cater to the needs of these districts. In other words, 72 districts (60%) were deficient in wheat availability ( Source: Food Insecurity in Rural Pakistan 2003)

• Price of all commodities risen between 12-40% just in past six months (2007/8) and rising unabatedly.

• International price of wheat and rice doubled. Farm community unable to produce at existing prices (wheat, rice, oils), costs (DAP, urea, water, seed) and technology gap.

• Availability of food reduced due to production decline, unplanned exports, smuggling and front line status

• Rising domestic and regional demand for products like vegetables, fruits, meat, milk, poultry

Feeding under climate change and high fuel and input costs

Agriculture at Cross roads

Tree resources rapidly declining4.2% cover and countingFisheries dependent on how water

Is managed-min flows

Population densities and poverty hotspots-opting for planned change

Adding to the water crisis- gender

Water burden a women’s problem

Poverty on the rise

Empty bowls

Technology options-making it work at least cost

Conclusions

• Recognize that political systems are self perpetuating interests, negotiating options and making decisions with limited information often for short term gains-narrow down the case of CC

• Majority of institutions engaged in water reform, ensuring food security, water security vs. food security regulation are ill equipped to handle the rapid decline in system ability to ensure food security

• Water can make or break vote banks. Its not scarcity its economic choices and management that require attention

• Disaggregate analysis by type of agriculture practiced (traditional, commercial, corporate farming, export oriented)-likewise the policy tools, technology packages, migration/adaptation measures be specific about whom they address

• Climate change is impacting production and consumption patterns in an unprecedented manner- address it pragmatically to mitigate/adapt to its vagaries and exploit the opportunities it offers

• Production, consumption, processing and marketing systems need to address inter and intra heterogeneity of South Asian systems – it’s a large self sustaining market that needs to negotiate its terms of trade and global responsibilities more maturely

• Science based response to food systems essential ( Global and Environmental Food Systems GECAFS, 2008 and Science-based Agricultural Transformation Towards Alleviation of Hunger and Poverty in SAARC Countries (March, 2008), New Delhi provide some direction setting for South Asia needs packaging and specificity

Thank You!