waste & environmental services industry reviewgas seeped outside the landfill’s borders. the...
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Solid Waste
As Massachusetts landfills close, a growing portion of the state's solid waste is being hauled out-of-state. In 2015, a quarter
of the state's waste, ~1.4 million tons, was exported to facilities in New Hampshire, Ohio, Maine, New York, Connecticut,
Vermont and Rhode Island, a 16% jump from 2014. Massachusetts imported 500,000 tons of waste in 2015, leaving net
exports at 880,000 tons, or ~16% of the state's total stream
Oregon State University engaged engineering consultants to assist with the development of the Deschutes County
demolition landfill that could eliminate 29,600 truck trips and minimize the impact of campus development on the
community
Kent County, Michigan, officials announced plans to double the methane collection system at its old Kentwood Landfill after
gas seeped outside the landfill’s borders. The Kent County Department of Public Works plans to add nine more gas wells
and a second flare to collect and burn off the migrating methane gas from the 45-acre site
Nestlé Purina announced that it has achieved zero waste to landfill status at its Oklahoma City facility, which produces
brands such as Purina Beyond, Friskies, Purina Pro Plan and Beneful. This is the company’s seventh location to achieve
this status as part of its global commitment to be landfill free by 2020. The company’s efforts to reduce waste to landfill
focus on three key areas - employee engagement, improving processes to minimize generation of waste and partnerships
with credible vendors for composting, recycling, energy recovery and other forms of beneficial use
As of March 31, 2017, the Solid Waste subsector is trading at a median forward 2017E P/E of 28.5x and EV/2017E
EBITDA of 10.3x, vs. 27.1x and 9.8x, respectively, at December 31, 2016
Hazardous / Environmental Remediation
In 2016, a new commercial hazardous waste incinerator was built for $120 million in the U.S. The incinerator is operated by
Clean Harbors in El Dorado, Arkansas, and can handle industrial and laboratory chemicals, manufacture by-products,
medical waste and other solid and liquid materials
President Trump’s 2018 budget provides $120 million to restart licensing activities for the Yucca Mountain nuclear waste
repository, as well as to initiate a robust interim storage program, to safely store nuclear waste for 10,000 years. Nevada’s
Yucca Mountain nuclear waste storage site has languished for three decades because of opposition from
environmentalists. In 2010, the Obama administration cut funding and in 2011, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission
allowed the shutdown of the project citing budgetary limitations from Congress
According to U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, radioactive waste from Ohio will be dumped at the landfills in Wayne, Michigan
and Northwood, Ohio. The shipments to the U.S. Ecology Landfill in Wayne and the Waste Management Evergreen Landfill
in Ohio are part of a clean up of contaminated material from the former Brush Beryllium site near Luckey, Ohio. The site
was used to process beryllium in the early 1950s and the U.S. Atomic Energy Commission sent about 1,000 tons of
radioactive scrap metal there for processing magnesium
As of March 31, 2017, the Hazardous / Environmental Remediation subsector is trading at a median forward 2017E P/E of
23.6x and EV/2017E EBITDA of 9.0x, vs. 23.6x and 9.7x, respectively, at December 31, 2016
Sources: Capital IQ; Waste Management World; Waste360; Company Websites
Disclosure: KeyBanc Capital Markets is a trade name under which corporate and investment banking products and services of KeyCorp and its subsidiaries, KeyBanc Capital
Markets Inc., Member NYSE/FINRA/SIPC, and KeyBank National Association (“KeyBank N.A.”), are marketed. Securities products and services are offered by KeyBanc Capital
Markets Inc. and its licensed securities representatives, who may also be employees of KeyBank N.A. Banking products and services are offered by KeyBank N.A. This report was
not issued by our research department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from sources deemed to be reliable but is not represented to be complete, and it
should not be relied upon as such. This report does not purport to be a complete analysis of any security, issuer, or industry and is not an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or
sell any securities. This report is prepared for general information purposes only and does not consider the specific investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of
any individual person or entity 1
Waste & Environmental Services Industry Review
2
Medical Waste
The U.S. medical waste management market is expected to reach $7,994.6 million by 2023. Non-infectious waste will be
the largest segment in the market with revenue reaching $4,922.1 by 2023. Infectious and pathological waste is expected to
emerge as the fastest growing medical waste type in the United States, owing to the rising demand for proper disposal
As of March 31, 2017, the Medical Waste subsector is trading at a median 2017E P/E of 34.4x and EV/2017E EBITDA of
15.9x, vs. 33.1x and 13.0x, respectively, at December 31, 2016
Waste to Energy
The City of Grand Rapids is gearing up to build a $21 million biodigestor at its Waste Resource Recovery Facility, which will
help manage the food waste generated by Founders Brewing Company, Coca-Cola, Amway and SET Environmental
The Southern Idaho Solid Waste District has announced plans to build a $7.8 million gas-to-energy project at the Milner
Butte Landfill in the city of Burley. The site receives 800 to 900 tons of waste per day from surrounding municipalities. Two
1.3 megawatt generators will be installed, followed by a third within the next five years to potentially generate enough
electricity for up to 5,000 homes. The system is expected to generate $31 million in revenue over the course of its 20-year
energy purchase contract
As of March 31, 2017, the Waste to Energy subsector is trading at a median forward 2017E P/E of 22.9x and EV/2017E
EBITDA of 10.5x, vs. 23.4x and 11.0x, respectively, at December 31, 2016
Recycling
In an effort to increase can and bottle recycling, the State of Oregon will begin doubling the payout for returned cans and
glass bottles, bringing the payout to 10 cents per can and bottle. In 2014 and 2015, the rates at which residents cashed in
bottles and cans dropped from 90% to less than 70% of all bottle sales
As part of the New Plastics Economy initiative, Coca-Cola has pledged to increase its recycling rate of plastic packaging
from 14% to 70% by 2025. The company currently sells products in a 30% bioPET bottle called Plant Bottle, which is fully
recyclable and made partially from plants
Dell announced that it will recycle HDPE plastics to make a new packaging system for its XPS 13 2-in1 laptop. Dell hopes
to increase the amount to 20,000 pounds next year and continue to look at how the plastics can be used for both packaging
and possibly products in the future
As of March 31, 2017, the Recycling subsector is trading at a median forward 2017E P/E of 16.5x and EV/2017E EBITDA
of 7.1x, vs. 18.6x and 7.7x, respectively, at December 31, 2016
Industry Highlight – Waste to Energy (WTE) Market is expected to reach $35.5 billion by 2024
According to Global Market Insights, Waste to Energy (WTE) market is expected to reach $35.5 billion by 2024
Europe, led by UK, Germany, Italy and France biological WTE market should increase more than 5.5% growth to exceed
$2.5 billion by 2024
Incineration waste to energy market may see significant growth, the technology was already valued at over $12.1 billion in
2015
Sources: American Petroleum Institute; Capital IQ; Waste Management World; Waste360; Company Websites
Waste & Environmental Services Industry Review (continued)
3
Sources: Company Websites; SEC Filings; Waste360
Appliance Recycling Centers of America, Inc.
1/10: Announced the opening of a new business unit, Customer Connexx, that supports scheduling and customer service
for its current utility programs and other standalone ventures. The contact center, located in Las Vegas, NV, has a seating
capacity for 90 agents. Customer Connexx provides a full suite of services, including inbound and outbound customer
calls, chat, email, IVR solutions and many other state-of-the-art call center capabilities
Casella Waste Systems
1/26: Announced that it has priced $25.0 million of Series 2005R-3 Bonds. The 2005R-3 Bonds were previously
designated as $3.6 million of FAME Solid Waste Disposal Revenue Bonds Series 2005R-1 and $21.4 million of FAME
Solid Waste Disposal Revenue Bonds Series 2005R-2. The 2005R-3 Bonds are expected to be remarketed on February 1,
2017 and will bear interest at 5.25% until maturity
Commercial Metals Company
2/2: Announced that the company will construct a highly automated steel fence post manufacturing facility on the site of its
new micro mill in Durant, Oklahoma. This location will enhance the Company's position as the leading supplier of fence
post products in the U.S. market and expand the company's national footprint of post manufacturing. It will continue to
operate its existing post manufacturing facilities in Cayce, South Carolina, San Marcos, Texas and Brigham City, Utah.
The Company's steel fence post business, which operates as CMC Southern Post, supplies the agriculture, ranching and
construction fencing markets. The highly automated production facility will produce a full range of steel posts and
shipments are expected to begin in the summer of 2018
1/9: Announced that the company will soon become the first and only producer of hot-rolled, spooled rebar in the United
States. The Company plans to begin production at its new micro mill in Durant, Oklahoma in the fall of 2017 and expects to
begin shipping spooled rebar in the spring of 2018. Traditional coiled rebar's cooling process inherently causes twisting in
the bar while spooled rebar has a no-twist design which alleviates the challenges associated with fabricating loose-wound
coiled rebar
Covanta Holding Corporation
2/22: Announced that it has entered into a new agreement with the Southeastern Connecticut Regional Resource
Recovery Authority (SCRRRA) for sustainable waste disposal at the Southeastern Connecticut Resource Recovery Facility
(SECONN) located in Preston, Connecticut. The new four year agreement will extend the decades-long partnership
between Covanta and SCRRRA until December 2020. SCRRRA was created to implement solutions for solid waste,
recyclables, household hazardous waste and additional waste materials for 12 municipalities in Southeastern Connecticut.
The facility has recovered more than 88,000 tons of metals for recycling, equivalent to the steel used to build two Gold Star
Memorial Bridges and generated 3,800,000 megawatt-hours of electricity, the equivalent of powering over 330,000 homes
for one year
Ormat Technologies
3/21: Announced that the first unit of the Sarulla geothermal power plant, one of the world's largest power plants, located in
Indonesia's North Sumatra, has commenced commercial operation. The 110-megawatt power plant, which combines flash
and binary technologies and 100% reinjection of the exploited geothermal fluid, is operated by Sarulla Operations Ltd.
(SOL). Toshiba and Ormat will continue to collaborate strategically on global promotion of highly-efficient geothermal
combined cycle flash and binary systems
Key Company News (Q1 2017)
4
Sources: Company Websites; SEC Filings; Waste360
Perma-Fix Environmental Services
1/20: Announced the appointment of S. Robert Cochran to the Company’s Board of Directors. Mr. Cochran is President
and CEO of CTG, LLC a consultancy practice that provides management, development, acquisition, and technological
services to nuclear, military and energy operations. Previously, Mr. Cochran served as President of CB&I Federal
Services, where he led the post-acquisition integration of Shaw Corporation's environment and federal businesses. At
CB&I, he was responsible for executing the largest single design-build civil works project awarded by the U.S. Army Corps
of Engineers and leading technical solutions to the Japanese government in the wake of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear
disaster. Mr. Cochran also served as Senior Vice President for Tyco Infrastructure, where he led the company into new
water, energy, transportation markets valued at more than $1 billion. During his professional career, Mr. Cochran has
authored numerous technical publications related to the remediation of hazardous waste facilities and received an
executive/mini M.B.A. from the University of Richmond's Robins School of Business and a B.S. from James Madison
University
Waste Connections
3/9: Announced that it will rebrand its operations in Canada from Progressive Waste Solutions to Waste Connections of
Canada. The rebranding follows the June 1, 2016 all-stock business combination of the Company (formerly named
Progressive Waste Solutions Ltd.) and Waste Connections U.S., Inc. (formerly named Waste Connections, Inc.). The roll
out of the new brand identity and logo will begin immediately, with the full transition expected to take place over the next 12
to 16 months
Waste Management
2/28: Announced the appointment of Bradbury H. Anderson, to the position of board chairman, effective February 27,
2017. Anderson, who is former vice chairman and chief executive officer of Best Buy Co. Inc., was first elected to Waste
Management’s board of directors in 2011. Over the past five years, Anderson has served on the Nominating and
Governance Committee and the Management Development and Compensation Committee of the board. As board chair,
Anderson will join the Audit Committee, serving on all three committees of the board. Anderson has over 20 years of
experience as a member of public company boards of directors and currently also serves as a director of General Mills,
Inc., Mayo Clinic and Carlson Companies
2/28: Announced the appointment of Devina A. Rankin to the position of Senior Vice President, CFO and treasurer. In her
role, Rankin, is responsible for all finance functions for the Company. She also has executive responsibility for the internal
audit, investor relations and supply chain functions. Rankin joined the Company in 2002 and has held a number of
corporate finance positions of increasing responsibility during her tenure. She began her career at Arthur Andersen, a
public accounting firm, in 1999. Rankin earned a Bachelor of Business Administration and a Master of Science degree in
accounting from Texas A&M University and is a certified public accountant licensed in Texas
Key Company News (Q1 2017) (continued)
Close Date Company Type Use of Proceeds Amount (MM) Maturity Rate / Spread
3/31/2017 Newalta Corporation Revolving Credit Facility General Corporate Purposes $112.6 7/12/2019 NA
3/29/2017 Sharps Compliance Corp. Revolving Credit Facility Acquisition Financing $14.0 3/29/2019 L + 250-300
2/13/2017 Waste Connections, Inc. Senior Unsecured Notes Debt Refinancing $250.0 4/20/2027 3.490%
2/13/2017 Waste Connections, Inc. Senior Unsecured Notes Debt Refinancing $150.0 4/20/2024 3.240%
2/10/2017 Heritage-Crystal Clean, Inc. Revolving Credit Facility General Corporate Purposes $65.0 2/21/2022 L + 250
2/10/2017 Heritage-Crystal Clean, Inc. Term Loan General Corporate Purposes $30.0 2/21/2022 L + 250
1/24/2017 Meridian Waste Solutions, Inc. Follow-on Offering General Corporate Purposes $12.4 NA NA
Select Recent Capital Markets Activity (Q1 2017)
Closed Date Acquirer (Parent) Target (Seller) Highlights
3/24/2017 Clean Earth, Inc. AERC Recycling Solutions Clean Earth, Inc. acquired AERC Recycling Solutions for an undisclosed
consideration
AERC Recycling Solutions provides electronics and waste recycling services to
corporate clients in the United States
3/8/2017 Heritage
Environmental
Services, LLC
Rineco Chemical Industries,
Inc.
Heritage Environmental Services, LLC acquired Rineco Chemical Industries, Inc. for
an undisclosed consideration
Rineco Chemical Industries, Inc. provides environmental and waste management
services for fuel and non-fuel streams
2/28/2017 Shanks Group plc Van Gansewinkel Groep B.V.
(Intermediate Capital Group
plc, KKR & Co., Oranje-
Nassau Groep B.V. )
Shanks Group plc acquired Van Gansewinkel Groep B.V. from Intermediate Capital
Group plc, KKR & Co., Oranje-Nassau Groep B.V. and others for $570 million
Van Gansewinkel Groep B.V. collects waste, transports the streams of waste to
specific treatment and processing locations and manages material streams
1/10/2017 Owen Steel Company
of South Carolina
(Commercial Metals
Company)
Certain assets from
OmniSource Corporation
(Steel Dynamics, Inc.)
Owen Steel Company of South Carolina acquired certain assets of OmniSource
Corporation from Steel Dynamics, Inc. for an undisclosed consideration
Certain assets of OmniSource consists of seven recycling facilities that purchase,
process and sell ferrous and non-ferrous scrap metal and other related products
throughout the southeastern United States
1/9/2017 National Response
Corporation
Water Truck Services, Inc. National Response Corporation acquired Water Truck Services, Inc. for an
undisclosed consideration
Water Truck Services, Inc. provides waste management and environmental services
in the Pacific Northwest
1/4/2017 Lakeshore Recycling
Systems LLC
K. Hoving Recycling &
Disposal, Inc.
Lakeshore Recycling Systems LLC acquired K. Hoving Recycling & Disposal, Inc.
for an undisclosed consideration
K. Hoving Recycling & Disposal, Inc. provides recycling and waste removal services
1/3/2017 Waste Connections,
Inc.
Groot Industries Inc. Waste Connections, Inc. acquired Groot Industries, Inc. for an undisclosed
consideration
Groot Industries Inc. provides solid waste management services to municipalities
and businesses in Illinois
5
Sources: Thomson Reuters; Capital IQ; SEC Filings
[1] Date referenced is the announced date of the proposed transaction
For additional information about KeyBanc Capital Markets, contact:
Waste & Environmental Services Team
Rod MacDonald
Managing Director
Cleveland
216.689.4445
Jeff Lakarosky
Vice President
Cleveland
216.689.5139
Ali Zahrieh
Analyst
Cleveland
216.689.5165
Select Recent Merger and Acquisition Activity (Q1 2017)
6
Sources: Capital IQ; Thomson Reuters
Note: LTM represent financials for the period ending 12/31/2016 or the latest available quarter; Forward EPS shown are 2017E per consensus equity research estimates
[1] Outlier EV/EBITDA and EPS multiples excluded from average and median calculations
Boldface denotes KeyBanc Capital Markets Equity Research coverage
Waste & Environmental Services Public Operating & Trading Statistics
$ in millions, except per share data Price
as of Market Enterprise Stock Performance (% Change) EV / LTM Consensus EPS Price to EPS Consensus EBITDA
Company 3/31/2017 Cap Value 1 week 1 month 3 month 1 year EBITDA 2017E 2018E 2017E 2018E
Advanced Disposal Services, Inc. ADSW $22.60 $1,991 $3,913 (0.6%) 0.4% 1.7% 0.0% 9.8x $0.36 $0.54 NM 41.5x
Casella Waste Systems Inc. CWST $14.11 $589 $1,095 2.5% 16.5% 13.7% 110.6% 10.1x $0.47 $0.58 30.3x 24.3x
Republic Services, Inc. RSG 62.81 21,312 28,906 1.0% 1.5% 10.7% 34.9% 10.9x 2.35 2.60 26.7x 24.2x
Waste Connections Inc. WCN 88.22 15,503 18,991 2.6% 0.4% 12.5% NA 17.9x 2.67 3.07 33.0x 28.8x
Waste Management, Inc. WM 72.92 32,216 41,517 0.8% (0.0%) 3.4% 26.7% 11.3x 3.16 3.43 23.1x 21.3x
Average 1.3% 3.8% 8.4% 43.0% 12.0x 28.3x 28.0x
Median 1.0% 0.4% 10.7% 30.8% 10.9x 28.5x 24.3x
Avalon Holdings Corporation [1] AWX $2.38 $9 $22 0.5% (16.4%) (19.3%) 26.7% 7.5x NA NA NM NM
Clean Harbors, Inc. [1] CLH 55.62 3,186 4,512 2.3% (4.6%) (0.1%) 12.7% 11.3x 0.49 1.11 NM 50.1x
Heritage-Crystal Clean, Inc. HCCI 13.70 315 343 1.9% (13.0%) (12.7%) 37.8% 10.7x 0.65 0.73 21.1x 18.8x
Newalta Corporation [1] TSX:NAL 1.72 151 393 6.5% (0.4%) (1.3%) 18.0% 34.8x (0.41) (0.23) NM NM
Perma-Fix Environmental Services Inc. [1] PESI 3.15 37 46 0.0% 5.0% (19.2%) (14.9%) NM NA NA NM NM
Secure Energy Services Inc. [1] TSX:SES 7.35 1,193 1,353 3.8% (8.1%) (15.8%) 21.9% 25.8x 0.01 0.24 NM 31.3x
US Ecology, Inc. ECOL 46.85 1,021 1,297 0.0% (9.3%) (4.3%) 7.8% 11.8x 1.79 2.06 26.2x 22.8x
Average 2.1% (6.7%) (10.4%) 15.7% 17.0x 23.6x 30.7x
Median 1.9% (8.1%) (12.7%) 18.0% 11.5x 23.6x 27.0x
Sharps Compliance Corporation [1] SMED $4.76 $76 $72 (0.8%) 0.4% 24.3% (13.5%) NM $0.11 NA 43.3x NM
Stericycle, Inc. SRCL 82.89 7,066 9,983 1.0% 0.3% 7.6% (34.3%) 9.6x 3.25 3.71 25.5x 22.4x
Average 0.1% 0.4% 15.9% (23.9%) 9.6x 34.4x 22.4x
Median 0.1% 0.4% 15.9% (23.9%) 9.6x 34.4x 22.4x
Covanta Holding Corporation [1] CVA $15.70 $2,060 $4,611 5.0% (0.2%) 2.3% (0.7%) 13.9x $0.04 $0.26 NM NM
Ormat Technologies Inc. ORA 57.08 2,836 3,641 0.8% (3.3%) 6.8% 39.5% 11.2x 2.26 2.53 25.3x 22.6x
Renewi plc LSE:RWI 1.20 956 1,369 0.0% (1.5%) 3.8% 37.8% 14.6x 0.06 0.07 20.5x 17.4x
Average 1.9% (1.7%) 4.3% 25.5% 13.2x 22.9x 20.0x
Median 0.8% (1.5%) 3.8% 37.8% 13.9x 22.9x 20.0x
Appliance Recycling Centers of America Inc. [1] ARCI $1.06 $7 $22 2.7% (10.2%) (5.3%) (10.2%) 29.4x NA NA NM NM
Commercial Metals Company CMC 19.13 2,215 2,884 5.7% (11.7%) (11.7%) 15.8% 9.6x 1.16 1.71 16.5x 11.2x
Industrial Services of America, Inc. [1] IDSA 1.67 13 19 (0.9%) (21.4%) (7.0%) (32.3%) NM NA NA NM NM
Schnitzer Steel Industries, Inc. SCHN 20.65 542 726 4.6% (16.4%) (19.0%) 16.1% 9.4x 1.03 1.37 20.0x 15.1x
Sims Metal Management Limited ASX: SGM 9.44 1,866 1,619 (0.7%) (0.6%) (2.1%) 47.2% 10.7x 0.70 0.77 13.5x 12.2x
Average 2.3% (12.1%) (9.0%) 7.3% 14.8x 16.7x 12.8x
Median 2.7% (11.7%) (7.0%) 15.8% 10.1x 16.5x 12.2x
Overall Average 1.8% (4.2%) (1.4%) 16.6% 14.2x 25.0x 24.3x
Overall Median 1.0% (1.1%) (0.7%) 16.1% 11.2x 25.3x 22.6x
Recycli
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Ticker
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$ in millions
Total Net LTM Total Debt / Net Debt / Total Debt / LTM EBITDA / LT S&P
Company Ticker Debt Debt EBITDA LTM EBITDA LTM EBITDA Capital Interest Rating
Advanced Disposal Services, Inc. ADSW $1,945 $1,943 $399 4.9x 4.9x 70.1% 3.4x B+
Casella Waste Systems Inc. CWST $508 $506 $113 4.5x 4.5x 104.8% 3.2x B
Republic Services, Inc. RSG 7,670 7,637 2,680 2.9x 2.9x 49.9% 7.2x BBB+
Waste Connections Inc. WCN 3,993 3,723 1,223 3.3x 3.0x 41.4% 11.6x BBB+
Waste Management, Inc. WM 11,292 11,262 3,709 3.0x 3.0x 62.0% 9.7x A-
Average 3.7x 3.7x 65.7% 7.0x
Median 3.3x 3.0x 62.0% 7.2x
Avalon Holdings Corporation AWX $13 $12 $0 NM NM 24.2% 0.4x -
Clean Harbors, Inc. CLH 1,634 1,337 410 4.0x 3.3x 60.6% 4.7x BB+
Heritage-Crystal Clean, Inc HCCI 29 18 37 0.8x 0.5x 12.2% 18.0x -
Newalta Corporation TSX:NAL 240 240 36 6.7x 6.7x 59.9% 1.9x -
Perma-Fix Environmental Services Inc. PESI 0 (0) (2) NM NM 0.0% NM -
Secure Energy Services Inc. TSX:SES 147 143 65 2.3x 2.2x 17.4% 9.6x -
US Ecology, Inc. ECOL 275 265 107 2.6x 2.5x 49.3% 6.3x BB
Average 3.3x 3.0x 31.9% 6.8x
Median 2.6x 2.5x 24.2% 5.5x
Sharps Compliance Corporation SMED $3 ($3) $0 5.5x (6.0x) NM 5.4x -
Stericycle, Inc. SRCL 6,218 6,171 1,022 6.1x 6.0x 49.7% 10.5x A
Average 5.8x 0.0x 49.7% 8.0x
Median 5.8x 0.0x 49.7% 8.0x
Covanta Holding Corporation CVA $3,100 $2,656 $306 10.1x 8.7x 88.6% 2.2x BB-
Ormat Technologies Inc. ORA 956 782 334 2.9x 2.3x 44.3% 5.0x -
Renewi plc LSE:RWI 474 433 94 5.0x 4.6x 68.7% 3.3x -
Average 6.0x 5.2x 67.2% 3.5x
Median 5.0x 4.6x 68.7% 3.3x
Appliance Recycling Centers of America Inc. ARCI $15 $14 $1 NM NM 57.6% 0.5x -
Commercial Metals Company CMC 1,064 669 302 3.5x 2.2x 43.9% 5.7x BB+
Industrial Services of America, Inc. IDSA 7 6 1 12.6x NM 36.0% 0.8x -
Schnitzer Steel Industries, Inc. SCHN 209 200 94 2.2x 2.1x 29.4% 10.6x -
Sims Metal Management Limited ASX: SGM 5 (234) 151 0.0x (1.5x) 0.4% 48.7x -
Average 4.6x 0.9x 33.5% 13.3x
Median 2.9x 2.1x 36.0% 5.7x
Overall Average 4.4x 2.9x 46.2% 8.0x
Overall Median 3.5x 2.9x 49.3% 5.4x
So
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Waste
Waste
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7
Sources: Capital IQ; Thomson Reuters
Boldface denotes KeyBanc Capital Markets Equity Research coverage
Waste & Environmental Services Public Credit Statistics
Value of Construction – Annualized and Seasonally Adjusted (through February 2017)
U.S. Crude Oil and Petroleum Products Exports and Imports (through March 2017)
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau; Energy Institute of America
According to the U.S.
Census Bureau, February
2017 construction spending
totaled $1,192.8 billion, up
3.0% vs. February 2016
spending levels of $1,157.7
billion
Overall construction
increased 0.8% MoM
propelled by increase in
residential and non-
residential construction
activity
U.S. crude oil and petroleum
gross product imports and
exports were 10,223 and
5,863 million bpd,
respectively, for the month of
March
Gross imports were down
2.2% while gross exports
were up 3.3% MoM,
respectively
Net imports in March were
down 8.6% MoM and down
17.2% YoY
8
Industry Fundamentals
491.0
701.8
$30
$130
$230
$330
$430
$530
$630
$730
$830
Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13 Feb-14 Feb-15 Feb-16 Feb-17
Bill
ion
s o
f Do
llars
Residential Non-Residential
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Sep-15 Mar-16 Sep-16 Mar-17
Th
ou
san
d B
arr
els
pe
r D
ay
(Mo
nth
ly A
ve
rag
e)
Imports Exports Net Imports
57.2
40
45
50
55
60
Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17
ISM
Pu
rch
as
ing
Ma
nag
ers
Ind
ex (P
MI)
243.6
225
230
235
240
245
Feb-14 Feb-15 Feb-16 Feb-17
Co
ns
um
er
Pri
ce
Ind
ex
(CP
I)
0.0%
20.0%
40.0%
60.0%
80.0%
100.0%
0
300
600
900
1,200
1,500
1,800
2,100
2,400
Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-12 Apr-13 Apr-14 Apr-15 Apr-16 Apr-17
% H
orizo
nta
l or D
irec
tion
alN
um
be
r o
f Ac
tiv
e U
.S.
Rig
s
Vertical Horizontal or Directional % Horizontal or Directional
9
CPI Indicator (through February 2017) and PMI (through March 2017)
Oil & Gas Activity (through April 2017)
The number of oil & gas rigs
increased 82.7% YoY
The number of horizontal or
directional drilling rigs
increased 91.1% YoY
CPI:
The February 2017
consumer price index came
in at 243.6, an increase of
approximately 31 basis
points from the January 2017
level of 242.8, driven by
increase in food, shelter and
recreation
PMI:
The manufacturing PMI
came in at 57.2 in March,
below the February level of
57.7, indicating decline in the
manufacturing sector
Sources: Department of Labor; Baker Hughes
Industry Fundamentals (continued)
10
Recycled Paper Pricing (through March 2017) and Diesel Prices (through March 2017)
Recycled Paper Pricing:
Monthly Recycled Paper
Prices rose to $162 during
March 2017, representing an
increase of 29.1% from
March 2016 price of $125
Diesel Prices:
According to the Energy
Information Administration,
March 2017 diesel prices
averaged $2.53 per gallon,
representing a YoY increase
of 19.4%`
Sources: Bloomberg; American Metal Market
The cost of heavy metal and
shredded auto scraps have
increased 57.4% and 52.4%,
respectively from April 2016.
The cost of aluminum,
copper and nickel scrap
have increased 22.5%,
17.9% and 67.8%,
respectively from April 2016
Ferrous & Nonferrous Scrap Prices (through April 2017)
Industry Fundamentals (continued)
$0.73
$2.09
$4.11
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
Apr-12 Apr-13 Apr-14 Apr-15 Apr-16 Apr-17
U.S
. $
/ lb
Aluminum Scrap Copper Scrap Nickel Scrap
$284
$316
$90
$190
$290
$390
$490
Apr-12 Apr-13 Apr-14 Apr-15 Apr-16 Apr-17
U.S
. $
/ to
n
Heavy Melt #1 Shredded Auto
$2.53$2.59
$2.46
$2.82
$1.8
$2.2
$2.6
$3.0
$3.4
$3.8
$4.2
$4.6
$5.0
Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17
U.S
. $
/ G
allo
n
US East Coast Midwest West Coast
$162
$100
$110
$120
$130
$140
$150
$160
$170
Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17
U.S
. $ /
Ton
Financial Conditions Ease After March Rate Hike Current Rate Snapshot (as of April 3, 2017)
11
Source: Bloomberg, Federal Reserve
Fed Speak & Economic News
The Trump Administration’s proposal of tax, deregulation and fiscal policies have been one of the main catalysts driving
the selloff in U.S. Treasuries since November – the other being the Federal Reserve; however, after the failure to push
healthcare reform through Congress, investors have turned slightly weary, with belief that the recent mishap is a
symptom of the political dysfunction that lies ahead. House Speaker Paul Ryan admitted as much when he said, “this
does make tax reform more difficult.” The ideological chasm between the Trump Administration and conservative
establishment emerged when Senate House Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said he hopes “we avoid a trillion-dollar
stimulus” with regards to the infrastructure bill, and when President Trump threatened a “fight” with another faction of the
party, the Freedom Caucus. The political division and fading hopes of reform have led the U.S. Treasury market to rally
in recent weeks
The market has pared its expectations for rate hikes this year and in 2018 in response to the political discourse despite
Fedspeak that maintained its hawkish bias last week. Dallas Fed President Kaplan said three hikes was a good base
case; Boston Fed President Rosengren called for four hikes this year; and San Francisco Fed President Williams
suggested three or four hikes this year while adding that a big fiscal stimulus program was not yet part of the Fed’s
calculus. With overall financial conditions easier than they were since the Fed started the most recent rate hike cycle
and global economic data remaining positive, only a significant decline in growth prospects would derail the Fed’s
intentions
Nearly nine months after the passing of the referendum to leave the European Union, the United Kingdom finally
triggered Article 50 last week. The clock is set at two years to complete the divorce, a task that will surely not be done
easily as the EU seeks to discourage additional departures. Perhaps the only thing assured is the political uncertainty
citizens and businesses in the UK will endure. Though the news had little effect on rates, the market will continue to
react to the situation going forward as the fine details are worked out
In a shocking turn of events the American Healthcare Act was pulled from the floor of House of Representatives. As one
of the primary pillars utilized in campaigning by President Trump and the majority of the Republican party, a failure to
make a change on the healthcare front is viewed as a political setback. While the market continues to digest this
decision it is likely the administration will turn to assessing corporate tax rates and industry deregulation next - both
impactful, market-moving topics
The Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index, which tracks the overall level of
financial stress in the United States money, bond, and equity markets, has risen in
recent months, signaling a further easing of financial conditions. The Fed has been
seen as acting opportunistically: more favorable financial conditions allow the Fed
to hike more easily. But rate hikes should lead to a tightening of financial
conditions, not an easing of them. Additionally, recent rumblings from Fed officials;
such as Rosengren, who said he has some “worry about asset prices”, and
Williams, calling market valuations a “little frothy”; suggest the central bank could
pull the levers even faster to reign in any perceived over-exuberance.
Source: Bloomberg
Capital markets update
Short Term Rates March 31, 2017 Prior Week Change
1-Month LIBOR 0.98% 0.98% 0.00%
3-Month LIBOR 1.15% 1.15% 0.00%
Fed Funds 1.00% 1.00% 0.00%
Fed Discount 0.75% 0.75% 0.00%
Prime 4.00% 4.00% 0.00%
U.S. Treasury Yields
2-Year Treasury 1.26% 1.27% (0.01%)
5-Year Treasury 1.92% 1.93% (0.01%)
10-Year Treasury 2.39% 2.38% 0.01%
Swaps vs. 3M LIBOR
2-Year 1.67% 1.66% 0.01%
5-Year 2.10% 2.09% 0.01%
10-Year 2.43% 2.41% 0.02%
92.5%
(21.0%)
(10.8%)
36.8%
(19.9%)
25.3%
(60%)
(40%)
(20%)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
Mar-14 Nov-14 Jun-15 Jan-16 Aug-16 Mar-17
Solid Waste Haz. / Environ. Remediation Medical Waste Waste to Energy Recycling S&P 500
12
Investment Grade and High Yield Bond Spreads (through March 31, 2017)
Sources: Capital IQ, Bloomberg
Solid Waste = CWST, TSX:BIN, RSG, WCN, WM
Hazardous / Environmental Remediation = AWX, CLH, ES, HCCI, TSX:NAL, PESI, TSX:SES, ECOL
Medical Waste = SMED, SRCL
Waste to Energy = CVA, ORA, LSE:SKS
Recycling = ARCI, CMC, IDSA, SCHN, SGM
A and BBB rated bond spreads
were stable throughout March,
while BB and B rated bond
spreads were relatively volatile
Three of the five W&ES
subsectors posted positive
returns for the three month
period ending March 31st. The
Medical Waste subsector
posted a gain of 15.9%, while
the Solid Waste, Waste to
Energy, Recycling and Haz. /
Env. Remediation subsectors
posted returns of 8.4%, 4.3%,
(9.0%) and (10.4%),
respectively
Over the last twelve months, the
Solid Waste subsector has led
the broader W&ES peer group,
posting a gain of 43.0%. The
W&ES subsector average return
was 13.6% compared to the
S&P 500 index return of 14.7%
Capital markets update (continued)
Index Performance (through March 31, 2017)
So lid
Waste
H az. / Env.
R emediat io n
M edical
Waste
Waste to
Energy R ecycling A verage
Last 12 M onths 43.0% 15.7% (23.9%) 25.5% 7.3% 13.6%
Last 3 M onths 8.4% (10.4%) 15.9% 4.3% (9.0%) 1.8%
Last 1 M onth 3.8% (6.7%) 0.4% (1.7%) (12.1%) (3.3%)#DIV/0!
117 bps
170 bps
279 bps
440 bps
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17
Sp
read
to
Mat
uri
ty
A Index BBB Index BB Index B Index
13
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