war turns case gtr

7/24/2019 War Turns Case gtr

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DA Turns Case


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War


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War T/ EthicsNuclear war is the end of all ethics

Joseph Nye, prof. of IR at Harvard University, 1986Nuclear Ethics, p. !

"he #rst of these ethical points is rather si$ple% if the intent of the overall war is

ethically unsound, then the use ofany weapons in such a cause is wrong,&e theyclu&s or nuclear $issiles. "his fact does not let us di'erentiate ethically &et(een nuclearand non)nuclear ar$s, &ut $erely returns us to a &asis for our ori*inal assu$ption that(ar can &e +ust. "his point does bear on the ethicality of all- out nuclear war,ho(ever, since althou*h the announced intent of the (ar $ay &e to save the earth fro$

the yoe of -o$$unis$ or I$perialis$, the actual end of the (ar (ould pro&a&ly &e asilent, s$oin* planet. Each of us $ust dra( our o(n conclusions as to the ethicality ofsuch an action, &ased on our o(n cultural, reli*ious, political, and ethical &ac*rounds.

ut it is an old ethical a/io$ that no ri*ht action ai$s at *reater evil in the results, and$y personal feelin*s on all out war is that there is no provocation that canethically support such devastation9 In the elo0uent (ords of John ennett, !"owcan a nation live with its conscience and #ill twenty $illion children inanother nation. . .213


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War T/ Dehu$ani%ationDehu$ani%ation is used as propaganda during wars4inulan)5rellano 36. 78atharine, arch yonip.co$ :top ;ehu$aniars http%??(((.yonip.co$?$ain?articles?no$ore(ars.ht$l]

In (ar ti$e, dehu$ani


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War T/ "u$an )ight *iolationsWars under$ine hu$an rights+anesan and *ines &75rvind, usiness and Hu$an Ri*hts =ro*ra$ ;irector L HR> 5le/,:enior Researcher L HR>, Head of 5frica =ro*ra$$e -hatha$ House, Royal Institue of IntMl5'airs, (En*ine of >ar% Resources, @reed, and the =redatory :tate, Hu$an Ri*hts >atch

>orld Report 33! http%??hr(.or*?(r!?do(nload?1!.pdfD

Internal ar$ed conGict in resource)rich countries is a $a+or cause of hu$an ri*hts violationsaround the (orld. 5n inGuential >orld an thesis states that the availa&ility of porta&le, hi*h)value resources is an i$portant reason that re&el *roups for$ and civil (ars &rea out, and

that to end the a&uses one needs to tar*et re&el *roup #nancin*. "he focus is on re&el *roups,and the thesis is that *reed, rather than *rievance alone, i$pels peoples to(ard internalar$ed conGict.

5lthou*h e/a$ination of the ne/us &et(een resources, revenues, and civil (ar is critically

i$portant, the picture as presented in the +ust)descri&ed *reed vs. *rievance theory isdistorted &y an overe$phasis on the i$pact of resources on re&el *roup &ehavior andinsucient attention to ho( *overn$ent $is$ana*e$ent of resources and revenues fuels

conGict and hu$an ri*hts a&uses. 5s ar*ued here, if the international co$$unity is seriousa&out cur&in* conGict and related ri*hts a&uses in resource)rich countries, it should insist on*reater transparency in *overn$ent revenues and e/penditures and $ore ri*orousenforce$ent of punitive $easures a*ainst *overn$ents that see to pro#t fro$ conGict.

-ivil (ars and conGict have taen a horri#c toll on civilians throu*hout the (orld. 8illin*s,$ai$in*, forced conscription, the use of child soldiers, se/ual a&use, and other atrocitiescharacteriar and =u&lic Health, Edition , 33A

odern $ilitary technolo*y, especially the use of hi*h)precision &o$&s, rocets, and

$issile (arheads, has no( $ade it possi&le to attac civilian pop ulations inindustriali


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on (hich life depends, (hile avoidin* the sti*$a of direct attac on the &odies andha&itats of nonco$&atants. "he techni0ue has &een ter$ed 2&o$& no(, die later.2

U.:. $ilitary action a*ainst Ira0 in the 1991 =ersian @ulf >ar and in the Ira0 >ar hasincluded the speci#c and selective destruction of ey aspects of the infrastructure

necessary to $aintain civi l ian life and health see -hapter 1B. ;urin* the &o$&in*phase of the =ersian @ulf >ar this deli&erate e'ort al$ost totally destroyed Ira0Ps

electrical)po(er *eneration and trans$ission capacity and its civilian co$$unicationsnet(ors. In co$&ination (ith the prolon*ed application of econo$ic sanctions and the

disruption of hi*h(ays, &rid*es, and facilities for re#nin* and distri&utin* fuel &yconventional &o$&in*, these actions had severely da$a*in* e'ects on the health andsur vival of the civilian population, especially infants and children. >ithout elec trical

po(er, (ater puri#cation and pu$pin* ceased i$$ediately in all $a +or ur&an areas, asdid se(a*e pu$pin* and treat$ent. "he appearance and epide$ic spread of infectiousdiarrheal disease in infants and of (ater&orne diseases, such as typhoid fever andcholera, (ere rapid. 5t the sa$e li$e, $ed ical care and pu&lic health $easures (ere

totally disrupted. odern $ultistory hospitals (ere left (ithout clean (ater, se(a*edisposal, or any elec tricity &eyond (hat could he supplied &y e$er*ency *eneratorsdesi*ned to operate only a fe( hours per day. Qperatin* roo$s, /)ray e0uip$ent, andother vital facilities (ere crippled. :upplies of anesthetics, anti&iotics, and other

essential $edications (ere rapidly depleted. 4accines and $edications re0uirin*refri*eration (ere destroyed, and all i$$uni


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War T/ )acis$

War props up syste$s of racis$ and do$ination1artin 2&7rian, 5ssociate =rofessor of :cience, "echnolo*y, and :ociety at the University of>ollon*on*, , Uprooting War, reedo$ =ress,

7http%??(((.uo(.edu.au?arts?sts?&$artin?pu&s?93u(?inde/.ht$lD

5nta*onis$ &et(een ethnic *roups can &e used and reinforced &y the state to sustain its o(npo(er. >hen one ethnic *roup controls all the ey positions in the state, this is readily used toeep other *roups in su&ordinate positions, and as a &asis for econo$ic e/ploitation. "his (asclearly a ey process in apartheid in :outh 5frica, &ut is also at (or in $any other countries in

(hich $inority *roups are oppressed. ro$ this perspective, the do$inant ethnic *roup usesstate po(er to $aintain its ascendancy. ut at the sa$e ti$e, the use of political andecono$ic po(er for racial oppression helps to sustain and le*iti$ate state po(er itself. "his is

&ecause the $aintenance of racial do$ination and e/ploitation co$es to depend partly on theuse of state po(er, (hich is therefore supported and e/panded &y the do$inant *roup. ro$this perspective it can &e said that the state $o&ilises racis$ to help $aintain itself.

"here are several other avenues used &y the state to $o&ilise support. :everal of these (ill &e

treated in the follo(in* chapters, includin* &ureaucracy and patriarchy. In each case,structured patterns of do$inance and su&$ission are $o&ilised to support the state, and statein turn helps to sustain the social structure in 0uestion, such as &ureaucracy or patriarchy. "ocounter the state, it is necessary &oth to pro$ote *rassroots $o&ilisation and to under$ine

the ey structures fro$ (hich the state dra(s its po(er and fro$ (hich it $o&ilises support.


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War T/ EverythingWar causes destroys health, hu$an rights, theenviron$ent, and causes do$estic violenceFevy and :idel, A arry Fevy) 5d+unct =rofessor of -o$$unity Health at "ufts University :choolof edicine, 4ictor :idel) =rofessor of :ocial edicine at the 5l&ert Einstein edical -olle*e,

>ar and =u&lic Health, Edition , 33A

>ar accounts for $ore death and disa&ility than $any $a+or diseases co$ &ined. Itdestroys fa$ilies, co$$unities, and so$eti$es (hole cultures. It directs scarce

resources a(ay fro$ protection and pro$otion of health, $edical care, and other hu$anservices. It destroys the infrastructure that supports health. It li$its hu$an ri*hts andcontri&utes to social in+ustice. It leads $any people to thin that violence is the only (ay

to resolve conGictsOa $indset that contri&utes to do$estic violence, street cri$e, andother inds of vio lence. 5nd it contri&utes to the destruction of the environ$ent andoveruse of nonrene(a&le resources. In su$. (ar threatens $uch of the fa&ric of ourcivili


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War T/ Environ$ent1odels prove nuclear war destroys the environ$ent 3s$o#e #ills crop and starts an ice age)oboc# and Toon 45 =rofessor of Environ$ental :ciences at Rut*ers University,

and =rofessor?oundin* chair in the ;epart$ent of 5t$ospheric and Qceanic :ciences at theUniversity of -olorado 5lan and rian, :elf)assured destruction% "he cli$ate i$pacts ofnuclear (ar, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 31, 4ol. S, pp. )A!,http%??the(e.&i


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War T/ War$ingEven the s$allest nuclear con8ict drastically alters thecli$ate and #ills billions)oboc# and Toon 45 =rofessor of Environ$ental :ciences at Rut*ers University,

and =rofessor?oundin* chair in the ;epart$ent of 5t$ospheric and Qceanic :ciences at theUniversity of -olorado 5lan and rian, :elf)assured destruction% "he cli$ate i$pacts ofnuclear (ar, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 31, 4ol. S, pp. )A!,http%??the(e.&i


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War T/ 1ental "ealthWar creates $any $ental health issuesevy and .idel, arry Fevy) 5d+unct =rofessor of -o$$unity Health at "ufts University:chool of edicine, 4ictor :idel) =rofessor of :ocial edicine at the 5l&ert Einstein edical-olle*e, >ar and =u&lic Health, Edition , 33A

@iven the &rutality of (ar. $any people survive (ars only to &e physically or $entally scarred

for life see o/ 1)1. illions of survivors are chronically disa&led fro$ in+uries sustaineddurin* (ar or the i$$ediate after$ath of (ar. 5ppro/i$ately one)third of Ihe soldiers (hosurvived ihe civil (ar in Ethiopia, for e/a$ple, (ere in+ured or disa&led, and at least!3,333 individuals lost one or $ore li$&s durin* the (ar.P 5ntipersonnel land$ines

represent a serious threat to $any peoplePP see -hapter A. or e/a$ple, in -a$&odia, Iin 6 people is an a$putee as a result of a land$ine e/plosion.P3

illions $ore people are psycholo*ically i$paired fro$ (ars, durin* (hich they have &eenphysically or se/ually assaulted or have physically or se/ually assaulted othersK have &een

tortured or have participated in the torture of oth ersK have &een forced to serve as soldiersa*ainst their (illK have (itnessed the death of fa$ily $e$&ersK or have e/perienced thedestruction of their co$ $unities or entire nations sec -hapter!. =sycholo*ical trau$a $ay &e

de$onstrated in distur&ed and antisocial &ehaviors, such as a**ression to(ard fa$ily$e$&ers and others. any soldiers, on returnin* fro$ $ilitary action, su'er fro$posttrau$atic stress disorder =":;. (hich also a'ects $any civilian survivors of (ar.


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;./)ussia War T/ "unger;. )ussia War goes nuclear and leads to fa$ine+er$anos, 4? 5ndrea, sta' (riter at -o$$on ;rea$s, Nuclear >ar -ould eanPE/tinction of the Hu$an Race, -o$$on ;rea$s,

http%??(((.co$$ondrea$s.or*?headline?316?1?13), 13))16

A war using even a s$all percentage of the world=s nuclear weaponsthreatens the lives of two billion people, a ne( report (arns. 2A nuclear war usingonly a fraction of e7isting arsenals would produce $assive casualtieson a global scale@far $ore than we had previously believed ,2 said ;r. Ira Helfand.=hoto% +onathan $cintosh?cc?Gicr "he #ndin*s in the report issued &y International =hysicians for =revention of Nuclear >ar I==N> and =hysicians for :ocial

Responsi&ility =:R are &ased on studies &y cli$ate scientists that sho( ho( nuclear (ar (ould alter the cli$ate and a*riculture, there&y threatenin* one 0uarter of the(orldPs population (ith fa$ine. Nuclear a$ine% "(o illion =eople at Ris o'ers an updated edition to the *roupsP 5pril of 31 report, (hich the *roups say 2$ay haveseriously underesti$ated the conse0uences of a li$ited nuclear (ar.2 25 nuclear (ar usin* only a fraction of e/istin* arsenals (ould produce $assive casualties on a

*lo&al scaleOfar $ore than (e had previously &elieved,2 ;r. Ira Helfand, the reportMs author and I==N> co )president, said in a s tate$ent. 5s their previous report sho(ed,years after even a li$ited nuclear (ar, production of corn in the U.:. and -hinaPs $iddle season rice production (ould severely decline, and fears over d(indlin* food

supplies (ould lead to hoardin* and increases in food prices, creatin* further food insecurity for those already reliant on food i$ports. "he updated report adds that-hinese (inter (heat production (ould plu$$et if such a (ar &roe out. ased on infor$ation fro$ ne( studies co$&inin* reductions in (heat, corn and rice, this ne(

edition dou&les the nu$&er of people they e/pect to &e threatened &y nuclear)(ar induced fa$ine to over t(o &illion. 2"he prospect of a decade of (idespread hun*er andintense social and econo$ic insta&ility in the (orldMs lar*est country has i$$ense i$plications for the entire *lo&al co$$unity, as does the possi&ility that the hu*e

declines in -hinese (heat production (ill &e $atched &y si$ilar declines in other (heat producin* countries,2 Helfand stated. The crops wouldbe i$pacted, the report e/plains, citin* previous studies, because of the blac# carbon particlesthat would be released, causing widespread changes li#e coolingte$peratures, decreased precipitation and decline in solar radiationIn this scenario of fa$ine, epide$ics of infectious diseases would be li#ely, thereport states, and could lead to ar$ed con8ict . ro$ the report% Within nationswhere fa$ine is widespread, there would al$ost certainly be foodriots, and co$petition for li$ited food resources $ight welle7acerbate ethnic and regional ani$osities. 5$on* nations, ar$ed con8ictwould be a very real possibility as states dependent on i$portsatte$pted to $aintain access to food supplies >hile a li$ited nuclear (ar (ould &rin* direcircu$stances, the i$pacts if the world=s biggest nuclear ar$s holders wereinvolved would be even worse. 2With a large war between the ;nited

.tates and )ussia, we are tal#ing about the possible @not certain, &ut possi&le@e7tinction of the hu$an race,2 Helfand told 5*ence)rance =resse. (:n order to eli$inatethis threat, we $ust eli$inate nuclear weapons,2 Helfand stated. =hoto%5=>co$$unications?cc?Gicr2In this ind of (ar, biologically there are going to be peoplesurviving so$ewhere on the planet but the chaos that would resultfro$ this will dwarf anything we=ve ever seen ,2 Helfand told the ne(s a*ency. 5s Helfand (rites, thedata cited in the report 2raises a *iant red Ga* a&out the threat to hu$anity posed.2 et, as ;r. =eter >il, for$er national e/ecutive director of =:R (rites in an op)ed

today, the 2threat is of our own creation.2 5s a +oint state$ent &y 1! states delivered to the United Nations @eneral 5sse$&lyin Qcto&er stated% 2:t is in the interest of the very survival of hu$anity thatnuclear weapons are never used again, under any circu$stances22Countries around the world@those who are nuclear-ar$ed and those

who are not@$ust wor# together to eli$inate the threat andconseuences of nuclear war,2 Helfand said. In order to eli$inate this threat, (e $ust eli$inate nuclear (eapons.
http://www.commondreams.org/headline/2013/12/10-2http://www.commondreams.org/headline/2013/12/10-2


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Terroris$


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Terroris$ T/ EconAcade$ic studies prove terroris$ hurts the econo$yAbadie and +ardea%abal, 5l&erto 5&adie) professor of pu&lic policy L Harvard, andJavier @area


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see UN-"5;, 33!. Qf course, not all this variation in ;I can &e attri&uted to thee'ect of the :epte$&er 11th attacs. 5s of :epte$&er 331 forei*n direct invest$entinGo(s had fallen fro$ its 333 pea not only in the U.:. &ut also in other developedecono$ies see UN-"5;, 6In related research, rey, Fuechin*er, and :tut


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this year or its pro+ection of 6.B percent *ro(th for 33. Ho(ever, heconceded that actual *ro(th in 33 is liely to &e rather lo(er than 6.B

percent. "he I co$pared the attacs to the costliest natural disaster in$odern history, the 199B earth0uae in 8o&e, Japan. "hat 0uae caused over

,!33 deaths, 6B,333 in+uries and property da$a*e of W13 &illion, or a&out .Bpercent of JapanPs *ross do$estic product. "he direct i$pact of the 8o&e 0uae

on the Japanese econo$y (as lar*er than that of the attacs on the 5$ericanecono$y,the I said. "owever, the total e6ect of the terrorist attac#son the ;. econo$y could be $ore far-reaching,particularly if sha#enconsu$er conor region providingsupport to global activity,!the I said. !This has increased thevulnerability of the global econo$y to shoc#s and heightened the ris#of a self-reinforcing downturn whose conseuences could prove

dicult to predict! or the United :tates, the I pro+ected the @;= (ould*ro( a (ea 1.6 percent this year, 3. percenta*e point lo(er than its ayforecast. or 33, the I forecast U.:. *ro(th (ould re&ound sli*htly to .

percent. "he U.:. econo$y *re( !.1 percent in 333. "he IPs outloo forJapan, the (orldPs second)lar*est econo$y, (as even *loo$ier. Japan is

pro&a&ly already in its fourth recession of the decade, the I said in pro+ectin*JapanPs @;= (ould shrin &y 3.B percent this year and $ana*e only a tiny 3.

percent *ain in 33. or @er$any, the lar*est econo$y in Europe, the I put*ro(th this year at 3.S percent, 1.1 percenta*e point &elo( its ay pro+ection.

It forecast @er$any (ould *ro( &y 1.S percent ne/t year. "he 1 Europeannations that have adopted the euro as a +oint currency (ill see *ro(th of 1.S

percent this year and . percent in 33, the I esti$ated. In one of its fe(

up(ard revisions, the I said it e/pected -hinaPs econo$y (ould *ro( &y A.Bpercent this year, up &y 3.B percenta*e point fro$ the ay forecast, and &y A.1percent in 33. @ro(th in developin* countries (as e/pected to &e !.6

percent this year and B.6 percent in 33. Fast year, the developin* (orld$ana*ed *ro(th of B.S percent.


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Terroris$ T/ DiseaseTerrorist attac#s would include the use of diseases---increases the ris# of spreadDunn et al. 057ar, 8ate Jones, :haun =hillips, Herald :un, Fe/isD

-QUN"ER)terror authorities have dra(n up plans to defend 5ustralia againstterrorists spreading avian in8uen%a The National Counter Terroris$Co$$ittee has included the use of bird 8u strain "'N4 as a weapon inpossible terroris$ attac# scenarios,5ttorney)@eneral =hilip RuddocPsoce con#r$ed. !:t certainly is factored into the counter-terroris$plan,!r RuddocPs spoes(o$an said. Australia >oins the ;. and Canadain treating bird 8u as a possible !agri-terroris$! weapon against theWest The "'N4 strain -- the $ost virulent type of bird 8u -- has so farclai$ed $ore than & lives in Asia :f the strain $utates into a hu$an-to-hu$an virus, the World "ealth rganisation has warned $illionscould die5 0uarantine ocial said Gi*hts fro$ countries that had detectedHBN1 (ere closely $onitored. Ther$al scanners for detecting passengers

with a fever are on stand-byat 5ustralian airports in the event of apande$ic. 5s &ird Gu fears spread around the (orld, the Herald :un can reveal

el&ourne -o$$on(ealth @a$es or*anisers have taen out insurance (orthhundreds of $illions of dollars in case the @a$es are cancelled. Under the

national pande$ic response plan, $ass *atherin*s can &e cancelled. Healthinister "ony 5&&ottPs oce con#r$ed 4ictorian authorities (ere a(are of the

potential i$pact of &ird Gu. !:t would have to be at a stage in thepande$ic where big public asse$blies would be very dangerous inter$s of spread of infection,!spoes(o$an 8ay cNiece said. :cientistsfear the disease has spread fro$ 5sia to poultry in Europe and :outh 5$erica.

In develop$ents yesterday% "UR8E reported &ird Gu at a far$ (here 1S33&irds died last (ee. HUN;RE;: of chicens in -olo$&ia (ere 0uarantined

after health authorities found the #rst suspected cases of &ird Gu. UF@5RI5Nauthorities tested three dead &irds for the virus. :UR4EIFF5N-E in =apua Ne(

@uinea has &een increased as the (ild &ird $i*ratory season to(ards 5ustralia&e*ins. .ources said the threat of terrorists using bird 8u should not beoverstated, but counter-terror agencies around the world havefactored it into their scenarios Al-Faida is #nown to have consideredagricultural and biological terroris$, including a plot to infect tons ofcocaine with a poison and then sell the drug in the ;.:i/ of al)XaidaPs:epte$&er 11 hi+acers had so$e for$ of a*ricultural trainin* and had learnedto Gy crop)duster aircraft. -anadaPs intelli*ence service, the J ;irectorate, hasalso (arned of the potential for terrorists to use &ird Gu. >hile scienti#c opinion

di'ers on ho( easy it $ay &e to use it as a (eapon,G5 analysts found the

develop$ent of a $an-$ade strain capable of triggering a hu$an 8upande$ic was possible


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Terroris$ T/ Hsychological *iolenceTerroris$ causes physiological trau$a- dirty bo$bsHecker 67:ie*fried is a visitin* professor at the -enter for International :ecurity and-ooperation -I:5- at :tanford University "he 5nnals of "he 5$erican 5cade$y of=olitical and :ocial :cience, :epte$&er, Fe/isD

Terrorists have also not yet crossed theradiolo*ical dispersal &o$& dirtybo$bI threshold. A dirty bo$b will disperse radioactive $aterials butnot cause a nuclear detonation and $ushroo$ cloudaterials for dirty&o$&s include rou*hly a doust about to cross the nuclear bo$b threshold, we $ustassu$e that so$e of the$ eventually will. "he &est preventive $easure isto eep the (eapons)usa&le $aterial out of their hands.


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Terroris$ T/ )acis$Terroris$ >ustiab, which is worn by 1usli$ wo$en,were !identi


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after the attacs :ept. 11 in Ne( or and >ashin*ton, (hich are &elieved &y U.:.

ocials to &e the (or of Isla$ic e/tre$ists. Bears of an ugly racial bac#lash inCanada and the ;nited .tates have pro$pted Hri$e 1inister GeanChrKtien and Hresident +eorge W Jush to reach out to the Arab and1usli$ co$$unitiesin their countries and to ur*e their citi


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.tructural *iolence


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.tructural *iolence T/ War.tructural violence is the largest pro7i$ate cause of war-creates pri$ing that psychologically structures escalation.cheper-"ughes and Jourgois L

=rof of 5nthropolo*y L -al)erelyK =rof of 5nthropolo*y L U=enn

Nancy and =hilippe, Introduction% ain* :ense of 4iolence, in 4iolence in >ar and

=eace, p*. 19)

"his lar*e and at #rst si*ht $essy =art 4II is central to this antholo*yMs thesis. It

enco$passes everythin* fro$ the routini


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and senti$ents daily enacted as nor$ative behavior by(ordinaryM good-enough citi%ens Heaceti$e cri$es, such as prisonconstruction sold as econo$ic develop$ent to i$poverished co$$unities in the$ountains and deserts of -alifornia, or the evolution of the cri$inal industrial co$ple/into the latest peculiar institution for $ana*in* race relations in the United :tates

>a0uant, -hapter 69, constitute the (s$all wars and invisible

genocidesMto (hich (e refer. "his applies to 5frican 5$erican and Fatino youth$ortality statistics in Qaland, -alifornia, alti$ore, >ashin*ton ;-, and Ne( or -ity.

These are (invisibleM genocides not because they are secretedaway or hidden fro$ view, but uite the opposite 5s >itt*ensteino&served, the things that are hardest to perceive are those whichare right before our eyes and therefore ta#en for granted. In thisre*ard, ourdieuMs partial and un#nished theory of violence see -hapters 6 and ! as(ell as his concept of $isreco*nition is crucial to our tas. y includin* the nor$ativeeveryday for$s of violence hidden in the $inutiae of nor$al social practices ) in the

architecture of ho$es, in *ender relations, in co$$unal (or, in the e/chan*e of *ifts,and so forth ) ourdieu forces us to reconsider the &roader $eanin*s and status ofviolence, especially the lins &et(een the violence of everyday life and e/plicit political

terror and state repression, :i$ilarly, asa*liaMs notion of peaceti$e cri$es ) cri$ini dipace ) i$a*ines a direct relationship &et(een (arti$e and peaceti$e violence.

Heaceti$e cri$es suggests the possibility that war cri$es are$erely ordinary, everyday cri$es of public consent appliedsyste$atically and dra$atically in the e7tre$e conte7t of war.-onsider the parallel uses of rape durin* peaceti$e and (arti$e, or the fa$ilyrese$&lances &et(een the le*ali


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presentin* it here, is $ore than si$ply the e/pression of ille*iti$ate physical forcea*ainst a person or *roup of persons. Rather, (e need to understand violence asenco$passin* all for$s of controllin* processes Nader 199A& that assault &asichu$an freedo$s and individual or collective survival. Qur tas is to reco*ni


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Disease


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Disease T/ HovertyDisease is a cause of poverty1alaria Consortiu$ 5&4alaria -onsortiu$, Esta&lished in 336, alaria -onsortiu$ is one of the

(orldMs leadin* non)pro#t or*anisations specialisin* in the prevention, controland treat$ent of $alaria and other co$$unica&le diseases a$on*vulnera&le populations, Qct 1A, 31!, B (ays infectious diseases and poverty

are lined, http%??(((.the*uardian.co$?*lo&al)develop$ent)professionals)

net(or?$alaria)consortiu$)partner)


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are all ris factors for disease. 1any of the diseases that disproportionately

a6ect poor populations are a result of low levels of hygieneor other

factors caused &y poverty. or e/a$ple, schistoso$iasis one of the N";s is spread throu*h

contact (ith (ater that contains parasites fro$ fresh(ater snails. "his disease alone a'ects

al$ost 13 $illion people (orld(ide. any co$$on childhood illnesses such as diarrhoea T

the second leadin* cause of death in children under #ve T are also caused &y poor sanitation

and can &e easily prevented throu*h access to safe drinin* (ater and i$proved sanitation

and hy*iene. 6. ;isease leads to a&senteeis$ and lost opportunities A high disease

burden carries heavy costs for individuals Each day that a child

spends at ho$e due to $alaria or other illness is a day that they are

unable to go to school.or adults, &ein* sic $eans that they cannot (or and earn

$oney to support their fa$ilies. Borso$e diseases, the debilitating e6ects of

disease and the resulting stig$a can lead to low e$ployability andfewer econo$ic opportunities5dded to*ether, these factors constitute a

$a>or drag on the econo$y. :o$e e/perts predict that $alaria alone inhi&its @;=

*ro(th &y appro/i$ately 1.6\ every year. !. :eein* treat$ent costs ti$e and $oney >hen

so$eone *ets sic in a re$ote villa*e, they often have to travel to the nearest health facility

for treat$ent T a trip that (ill inevita&ly cost ti$e and, $ost pro&a&ly, $oney. or fa$ilies or

individuals that are already facin* econo$ic hardships, this can &e particularly detri$ental.

ost of the $oney spent on treat$ent co$es fro$ patientsM o(n pocets. ut-of-poc#et

pay$ents for health can cause households to incur catastrophic

e7penditures, which in turn can push the$ into poverty

rin*in*healthcare solutions closer to the co$$unityis one solution, &ut $any re*ions are still

left uncovered. B. @overn$ent health e/penditure diverts $oney fro$ other invest$ents

@overn$ents in hi*h &urden countries e/pend vast resources to control disease trans$ission.

5s lon* as $alaria and other diseases continue to pla*ue these societies, funds that (ould

other(ise &e invested in education, social services or other i$portant sectors $ust &e

diverted. ;isease can also deter e/ternal investors fro$ settin* up shop in these countries. or

e/a$ple, hi*h $alaria rates have &een lined to decreased touris$ in countries that (ould

nor$ally &ene#t fro$ the e/tra &usiness. 5ddressin* the lin "he clear lin &et(een health andpoverty has $ade disease control a central concern for *overn$ents and international actors

alie. It presents an opportunity to #*ht poverty throu*h proven and e'ective interventions

supported &y research and e/perience. In the past decade, these e'orts have led to $alaria

deaths &ein* cut in half to A,333 annually. "his is incredi&le pro*ress that needs to &e

sustained. ortunately, (orld leaders realise the i$portance of co$$ittin* to health tar*ets
http://www.theguardian.com/global-development-professionals-network/malaria-consortium-partner-zone/tackling-school-absenteeism-from-malaria-in-ethiopiahttp://www.theguardian.com/global-development-professionals-network/malaria-consortium-partner-zone/tackling-school-absenteeism-from-malaria-in-ethiopiahttp://www.theguardian.com/global-development-professionals-network/malaria-consortium-partner-zone/tackling-school-absenteeism-from-malaria-in-ethiopiahttp://www.malariaconsortium.org/inscale/http://www.theguardian.com/global-development-professionals-network/malaria-consortium-partner-zone/tackling-school-absenteeism-from-malaria-in-ethiopiahttp://www.theguardian.com/global-development-professionals-network/malaria-consortium-partner-zone/tackling-school-absenteeism-from-malaria-in-ethiopiahttp://www.malariaconsortium.org/inscale/


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and have a*reed to eep a health focus in the develop$ent of the ne( :ustaina&le

;evelop$ent @oals, (hich (ill ai$ to reduce poverty &y i$provin* $aternal and child health.
http://www.theguardian.com/global-development-professionals-network/malaria-consortium-partner-zone/g7-sustainable-development-goalshttp://www.theguardian.com/global-development-professionals-network/malaria-consortium-partner-zone/g7-sustainable-development-goalshttp://www.theguardian.com/global-development-professionals-network/malaria-consortium-partner-zone/g7-sustainable-development-goalshttp://www.theguardian.com/global-development-professionals-network/malaria-consortium-partner-zone/g7-sustainable-development-goals


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Disease T/ WarDisease increases the li#elihood of war and genocideHeterson, ?:usan) associate professor of @overn$ent at the -olle*e of >illia$ ] ary,:ecurity :tudies 1, no. (inter 33?6, Epide$ic ;isease and National :ecurityhttp%??people.($.edu?Vs$pete?#les?epide$ic.pdf

Ho( $i*ht these political and econo$ic e'ects produce violent conGict =rice):$ith

o'ers t(o possi&le ans(ers% ;isease .$a*nif7iesD.&oth relative and a&solute deprivationand.hasten7sD the erosion of state capacity in seriously a'ected societies. "hus,infectious disease $ay in fact contri&ute to societal desta&ilihen the de&ilitatin* and deadly e'ects of I;s lie 5I;: areconcentrated a$on* a particular socio)econo$ic, ethnic, racial, or *eo*raphic *roup,

the potential for conGict escalates. In $any parts of 5frica today, 5I;: stries rural areasat hi*her rates than ur&an areas, or it hits certain provinces harder than others. If thesetrends persist in states (here tri&es or ethnic *roups are heavily concentrated in

particular re*ions or in rural rather than ur&an areas, 5I;: al$ost certainly (ill interact(ith tri&al, ethnic, or national di'erences and $ae political and $ilitary conGict $oreliely. =rice):$ith ar*ues, $oreover, that .the potential for intra)elite violence is alsoincreasin*ly pro&a&le and $ay carry *rave political conse0uences, such as coups, thecollapse of *overnance, and planned *enocides..S!

Hande$ics cause global civil wars 3 regression analysisprovesetendre, Bincher, ;epart$ent of iolo*y at the University of Ne( e/ico, andThornhill, ;epart$ent of -o$puter :cience at the University of Ne( e/ico, 5&4&

8enneth, -orey, and Randy, ;oes infectious disease cause *lo&al variation in the fre0uencyof intrastate ar$ed conGict and civil (ar, Biological Reviews, p. 9

@eo*raphic and cross)national variation in the freuency ofintrastate ar$ed con8ict and civil war isa su&+ectofgreat interest. =revious theory on this variation has focused on the inGuence on hu$an &ehaviour of cli$ate, resource co$petition, national (ealth, and cultural characteristics.We present the parasite-stress $odel of intrastate con8ict, (hich unites previous (or onthe correlates of intrastate conGict by lin#ing freuency of the out&rea of such conGict, includin*civil war,to theintensity of infectious disease across countriesof the (orld. "igh intensity ofinfectious disease leads to the e$ergence of 7enophobic andethnocentric cultural nor$s. These cultures su6er greater povertyand deprivationdue to the $or&i dity and $ortality caused &y disease, and as a result of decreased invest$ent in pu&lic health and (elfare. )esourceco$petition a$ong 7enophobic and ethnocentric groups within anation leads to increased freuency of civil war . >e present support for the parasite)stress $odelwith

regression analyses. We e consider the entan*le$ents of feed&ac of conGict into further reduced (ealth and increased incidence of disease, and discuss i$plicationsfor international (arfare and *lo&al patterns of (ealth and i$perialis$.


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"ege$ony


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"eg T/ econo$y;. withdrawal would result in a new dar# age andcollapse the global econo$yBerguson, Niall. =rof of history L Harvard. Hoover ;i*est, 5 >orld (ithout =o(erJuly?5u*ust !. http%??(((.hooverdi*est.or*?3!!?fer*uson.ht$l

:o (hat is left >anin* e$pires. Reli*ious revivals. Incipient anarchy. 5 co$in* retreatinto forti#ed cities. "hese are the ;ar 5*e e/periences that a (orld (ithout ahyperpo(er $i*ht 0uicly #nd itself relivin*. "he trou&le is, of course, that this ;ar 5*e

(ould &e an alto*ether $ore dan*erous one than the ;ar 5*e of the ninth century. orthe (orld is $uch $ore populousOrou*hly 3 ti$es $oreO$eanin* that friction&et(een the (orldMs disparate tri&es is &ound to &e $ore fre0uent. "echnolo*y has

transfor$ed productionK no( hu$an societies depend not $erely on fresh (ater and theharvest &ut also on supplies of fossil fuels that are no(n to &e #nite. "echnolo*y hasup*raded destruction, tooK it is no( possi&le not +ust to sac a city &ut to o&literate it.

or $ore than t(o decades, *lo&ali


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"eg .olves 1iddle East :nstability"ege$ony solves 1iddle East instability

Liu 3PHenry - 8, chair$an of the Ne( or)&ased Fiu Invest$ent @roup.

Nove$&er 3, 5sian "i$es,httpQ//wwwati$esco$/ati$es/1iddleREast/ES5&A#&'ht$l

;. hege$ony, for Fe(is, o6ers the hope of rescuing the fallen Arabpeoplefro$ their state of de*radation. Not only (ill the ;. pro$ote valuesof freedo$ and de$ocracy, it pro$ises salvation as the one powerthat can stand against the ine7orable historical tra>ectory that ispulling the 1iddle East downward. @eor*e > ush articulated thishistorical $ission. or Fe(is and ush, ever since Qtto$an vitality petered outfour centuries a*o, the West has provided the ideas, inspiration and$eans to $ove the 1iddle East into the $odern world ) never $ind thatthe ideas ca$e in the for$ of cultural i$perialis$, the inspiration in the for$ of

-alvinist capitalis$ and the $eans in the for$ of $ilitary invasion. Feft to theiro(n devices, 5ra&s are destined to re$ain in the $isery they have chosen for

the$selves.


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"eg .olves Asian WarA$erican hege$ony prevents Asian warhalil$ad %5 $%almay &eense !nalyst at '!&, The )ashin*ton "+arterly,'T-./.G G'!& ST'!TG01 2ol3 45, o3 61 7*3 58,9

Third, the ;nited .tates should see# to strengthen its own relativecapabilities and those of its friends in East Asia to deter possibleChinese aggression and deal e6ectively with a $ore powerful,potentially hostile China China=s $ilitary leaders are considering thepossibility of a con8ict with the ;nited .tates They recogni%e theoverall superiority of the ;. $ilitary but believe there arewea#nesses that could be e7ploited while preventing the ;nited.tates fro$ bringing its full power to bear in case of a con8ict overTaiwan5ccordin* to the -hinese, U.:. (eanesses include vulnera&ility of U.:. &asesto $issile attacs, heavy U.:. reliance on space, 5$ericaPs need to rapidly reinforce there*ion in ti$es of conGict, suscepti&ility of U.:. cities to &ein* held hosta*e, and5$ericaPs sensitivity to casualties. 5ccordin* to the e$er*in* -hinese doctrine, the local

&alance of po(er in the re*ion (ill &e decisive &ecause in this ne( era (ars are shortand intense. In a possi&le "ai(an conGict -hina (ould see to create a fait acco$pli,forcin* the United :tates to ris $a+or escalation and hi*h levels of violence to reinstate

the status 0uo ante. -hina $i*ht *a$&le that these riss (ould constrain the U.:.response. :uch an approach &y -hina (ould &e e/tre$ely risy and could lead to a

$a+or (ar. Dealing with such possible challenges fro$ China both in thenear and long ter$ reuires $any steps Jurden-sharing andenhanced ties with states in East and .outheast Asia will bei$portant New for$al alliance relationships--which would be thecentral ele$ent of a contain$ent strategy--are neither necessary norpractical at this ti$e, but it would be prudent to ta#e so$epreparatory steps to facilitate the for$ation of a new alliance or theestablish$ent of new $ilitary bases should that beco$e necessary

"hey (ould si*nal to -hina that any atte$pt on their part to see re*ional he*e$ony(ould &e costly. "he steps (e should tae no( in the re*ion $ust include enhancin*

$ilitary)to)$ilitary relations &et(een Japan and :outh 8orea, encoura*in* increasedpolitical) $ilitary cooperation a$on* the 5:E5N states and resolvin* overlappin* clai$sto the :pratly Islands and the :outh -hina :eaK fosterin* a Japanese)Russianrapproche$ent, includin* a settle$ent of the dispute over the 2northern territoriesK2 and

enhancin* $ilitary)to)$ilitary cooperation &et(een the United :tates and the 5:E5Nstates. "hese steps are i$portant in the$selves for deterrence and re*ional sta&ility &utthey can also assist in shiftin* to a $uch tou*her policy to(ard -hina should that

&eco$e necessary. Jecause of the potential for con8ict between the;nited .tates and China over issues such as Taiwan, the ;. $ilitaryposture in general should ta#e this possibility into accounteasuresshould &e taen to correct the -hinese &elief that they can confront the (orld (ith a fait

acco$pli in "ai(an. "he United :tates needs e/panded +oint e/ercises (ith states in there*ion. Ensurin* access to ey facilities in countries such as the =hilippines, pre)positionin* stocs in the re*ion, and increasin* "ai(anPs a&ility to defend itself (ould

also &e prudent. The large distances of the East Asian region also suggestthat a future ;. force-$i7 $ust e$phasi%e longer-range syste$s andstand-o6 weapons The ;nited .tates $ust develop increasedcapabilities to protect friendly countries and ;. forces in the regionagainst possible $issile attac#s


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"eg .olves Terroris$;. :ntervention is #ey to prevent another terrorist attac#

Korb 37Fa(rence =ro+ect ;irector of -ouncil =olicy Initiative, :ponsored &y the -ouncil on

orei*n Relations,http%??(((.cfr.or*?content?pu&lications?attach$ents?NationalC:ecurityC-=I.pdfD

or centuries, international law has accepted that a state need not su6eran attac# before it can lawfully ta#e action to repel an i$$inentdanger. Fe*al scholars condition the #rst use of force on the presence of an i$$inentthreat.>e need to adapt this i$$inence re0uire$ent to todayMs realities.Theterrorists and tyrants that inhabit the globe will not use conventional$eans,such as ar$ies, navies, and air forces, to attac# us. They plan to relyon (asy$$etric warfareOthe use of terror tactics and perhaps even (eapons of$ass destruction,(eapons that (ill &e carefully concealed ,secretly delivered, and

e$ployed (ithout (arnin*:n this new threat environ$ent, the inherentright to self-defenseenshrined in 5rticle B1 of the UN -harter includes the

rightOI (ould say the le*al and $oral o&li*ationOto act to protect A$ericaninterestsTo conclude otherwise would be to turn the charter into asuicide pact. In a perfect (orld, preventive action (ould &e unnecessary. ut in thead$ittedly Ga(ed (orld of today, it is not enou*h to act only in response to pasta**ression. Even a nu$&er of +ust (ar theorists understand that such a reactive

strate*y plays into the hands of Qsa$a &in Faden and his sy$pathi


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"eg .olves +lobal .tability;. hege$ony through $ilitary presence $aintains orderMan#e$baum 6 [Michae$! )ro%essor o% &merican %oreign /oreign Po$icy Maga2ine!

an4/eb! htt)544-sais7

hu-e#u4insi#er4)#%4.0069artic$es4man#e$baum9%)9010:06-)#%or instance, ;. $ilitary power helps to #eep order in the world TheA$erican $ilitary presence in Europe and East Asia,(hich no( includesappro/i$ately 1SB,333 personnel, reassures the govern$ents of theseregions that their neighbors cannot threaten the$, helping to allaysuspicions, forestall ar$s races, and $a#e the chances of ar$edcon8ict re$ote ;. forces in Europe, for instance, reassure WesternEuropeans that they do not have to increase their own troop strengthto protect the$selves against the possibility of a resurgent )ussia,while at the sa$e ti$e reassuring )ussia that its great adversary ofthe last century, +er$any, will not adopt aggressive policies .i$ilarly,the ;.- Gapan .ecurity Treaty, which protects Gapan, si$ultaneously

reassures Gapan0s neighbors that it will re$ain peaceful Thisreassurance is vital yet invisible, and it is all but ta#en for granted

;. policies ensure peace

Man#e$baum 6 [Michae$! )ro%essor o% &merican %oreign /oreign Po$icy Maga2ine!

an4/eb! htt)544-sais7

hu-e#u4insi#er4)#%4.0069artic$es4man#e$baum9%)9010:06-)#%

"o &e sure, the ;nited .tates did not deliberately set out to beco$e theworld0s govern$ent. "he services it provides ori*inated durin* the -old >ar as partof its stru**le (ith the :oviet Union, and 5$erica has continued, adapted, and in so$ecases e/panded the$ in the post)-old >ar era. Nor do 5$ericans thin of their country

as the (orldMs *overn$ent. Rather, it conducts, in their vie(, a series of policiesdesigned to further A$erican interests. In this respect they are correct, &utthese policies serve the interests of others as well The alternative tothe role the ;nited .tates plays in the world is not better globalgovernance, but less of it@and that would $a#e the world a far $oredangerous and less prosperous place Never in hu$an history has onecountry done so $uch for so $any others, and received so littleappreciation for its e6orts


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"eg .olves De$ocracy;. hege$ony is essential to support de$ocracies;iamon# hy the United :tates ust Re$ain En*a*ed, p. !3B)!16D

In the past, global power has been an i$portant reason why certaincountries have beco$e $odels for e$ulation by others. The globalpower of the ;nited .tates, and of its >estern de$ocratic allies, has been afactor in the di6usion of de$ocracy around the world,andcertainly iscrucial to our ability to helppopular, le*iti$ate de$ocratic forces deterar$ed threatsto their overthro(, or to return to po(er as in Haiti (hen they have&een overthro(n. @iven the lina*es a$on* de$ocracy, peace, and hu$an ri*hts)as

(ell as the recent #ndin* of =rofessor 5da$ =r


44/75


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"eg Turns Terroris$/Econo$y/)esourceWars/De$ocracy

Bailure to reassert ;. hege$ony ris#s terroris$, resourcescarcity, global econo$ic collapse and de$ocratic

consolidationoo#s)ee#


46/75

globali%ing econo$y and a historic transfer of wealth and econo$icpower fro$ West to East "he report identi#ed a *reat 2arc of insta&ility2stretchin* fro$ su&):aharan 5frica throu*h North 5frica into the iddle East, the

alans, the -aucasus, :outh and -entral 5sia and parts of :outheast 5sia. Thepower of non-state actors)) &usinesses, tri&es, reli*ious or*ani


47/75

Econo$y


48/75

Econo$y T/ Asian .tabilityEcono$ic decline causes Asian instabilityAuslin 2ichael 5uslin, resident scholar at 5EI, ??39 5vertin* ;isaster, "he ;aily:tandard, http%??(((.aei.or*?pu&lications?#lter.all,pu&I;.9669?pu&Cdetail.asp

As they deal with a collapsing world econo$y, policy$a#ers inWashington and around the globe $ust not forget that when adepression stri#es, war can follow Nowhere is this truer than inAsia , the $ost heavily ar$ed region on earth and riven with ancienthatreds and territorial rivalries Collapsing trade 8ows can lead topolitical tension , nationalist outbursts, growing distrust, andulti$ately, $ilitary $iscalc ulation The result would be disaster ontop of an already dire situation No one should thin# that Asia is onthe verge of con8ict Jut it is also i$portant to re$e$ber what hashelped #eep the peace in this region for so long Hheno$enal growthrates in Gapan, .outh Sorea, "ong Song, .ingapore, China and

elsewhere since the 42&s have naturally turned national attentioninward, to develop$ent and stability This has gradually led toincreased political con


49/75

the *eopolitical $ap in the (orldPs $ost populous re*ion. =erhaps -hina (ould e$er*e as theundisputed he*e$on. =ossi&ly de$ocracies lie Japan and :outh 8orea (ould lin up to oppose

any a**ressor. India $i*ht decide it could $ove into the vacuu$ All of this isguess-wor#, of course, but it has happened repeatedly throughouthistory There is no reason to believe we are i$$une fro$ the sa$etypes of $iscalculation and greed that have destroyed international

syste$s in the past


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Econo$y T/ ChinaEcono$ic collapse turns Chinese relations and war1ead 2>alter Russell, Henry 5. 8issin*er :enior ello( in U.:. orei*n =olicy T -ouncil onorei*n Relations, Qnly aes ou :tron*er, "he Ne( Repu&lic, )!,

http%??(((.tnr.co$?politics?story.ht$lid[BA1c&&&9)SSA)!dS1)SB!)9eS691BfBfS]p[

"he *reatest dan*er&oth to U.:.)-hina relationsand to 5$erican po(er itself is

pro&a&ly not that -hina (ill rise too far, too fastK it is that thecurrent crisis $i*ht end-hinaPs *ro(th$iracle. In the (orst)case scenario, the tur$oil in theinternational econo$y (ill plun*e -hina into a $a+orecono$ic do(nturn.

"he -hinese #nancial syste$ (ill i$plodeas loans to &oth state and privateenterprises *o &ad. illions or even tens of $illions of -hinese (ill &e une$ployed in a country(ithout an e'ective social safety net. "he collapse of asset &u&&les in the stoc and property

$arets (ill (ipe out the savin*s of a *eneration of the -hinese $iddle class."he political

conse0uences could include dan*erous unrest))and a &itter cli$ate ofanti)forei*n feelin* that &la$es others for -hinaPs (oes. "hinof

>ei$ar @er$any , (hen &oth Naest for @er$anyPs econo$ic travails. >orse,insta&ility couldlead to a vicious cycle, as nervous investors $oved their $oney out of the country,further slo(in* *ro(th and, in turn, fo$entin* ever)*reater &itterness. "hans to a *enerationof rapid econo$ic *ro(th, -hina has so far &een a&le to $ana*e the stresses and conGicts of

$odernihile IndiaPs 3)year)old de$ocraticsyste$ has resisted $any shocs, a deep econo$ic recession in a country (here $ass poverty

and even hun*er are still $a+or concerns could under$ine political order, lon*)ter$ *ro(th,and IndiaPs attitude to(ard the United :tates and *lo&al econo$ic inte*ration. "he violentNa/alite insurrection pla*uin* a si*ni#cant s(ath of the country could *et (orseK reli*ious

e/tre$is$ a$on* &oth Hindus and usli$s could further polariest are relatively short and $ild. "he United :tates should stand ready to assist -hinese andIndian #nancial authorities on an e$er*ency &asis))and (or very hard to help &oth countriesescape or at least (eather any econo$ic do(nturn. It $ay test the political (ill of the Q&a$aad$inistration, &ut the United :tates $ust avoid a protectionist response to the econo$ic

slo(do(n. U.:. $oves to li$it $aret access for -hinese and Indian producers could poison

relations for years. or &illionsof people in nuclear)ar$ed countriesto e$er*efro$ this crisis &elievin* either that the United :tates (as indi'erent to their (ell)&ein* or that

it had pro#ted fro$ their distress could da$a*e U.:. forei*n policyfar $oreseverely than any $istae $ade &y @eor*e >. ush. ItPs not +ust the *reat po(ers (hosetra+ectories have &een a'ected &y the crash. Fesser po(ers lie :audi 5ra&ia and Iran also facene( constraints. "he crisis has stren*thened the U.:. position in the iddle East as fallin* oil

prices reduce Iranian inGuence and increase the dependence of the oil sheido$s on U.:.protection. :uccess in Ira0))ho(ever late, ho(ever undeserved, ho(ever li$ited))had alreadyi$proved the Q&a$a ad$inistrationPs prospects for addressin* re*ional crises. No(, thecollapse in oil prices has put the Iranian re*i$e on the defensive. "he annual inGation rate rose

a&ove 9 percent last :epte$&er, up fro$ a&out 1A percent in 33A, accordin* to IranPs anara


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*overn$ent to rein in its e/pansionary #scal policy. 5ll this has (eaened 5h$adine+ad atho$e and Iran a&road. Iranian ocials $ust &alance the relative $erits of support for allieslie Ha$as, Heestern carrots lie trade

opportunities have &eco$e $ore attractive. ean(hile, :audi 5ra&ia and other oil states have&eco$e $ore dependent on the United :tates for protection a*ainst Iran, and they have fe(erresources to fund reli*ious e/tre$is$ as they use di$inished oil revenues to support &asic

do$estic spendin* and develop$ent *oals. None of this $aes the iddle East an easy tar*etfor U.:. diplo$acy, &ut thans in part to the econo$ic crisis, the inco$in* ad$inistration hasthe chance to try so$e ne( ideas and to enter ne*otiations (ith Iran and :yria fro$ aposition of enhanced stren*th. Every crisis is di'erent, &ut there see$ to &e reasons (hy, over

ti$e, #nancial crises on &alance reinforce rather than under$ine the (orld position of theleadin* capitalist countries. :ince capitalis$ #rst e$er*ed in early $odern Europe, the a&ilityto e/ploit the advanta*es of rapid econo$ic develop$ent has &een a ey factor ininternational co$petition. -ountries that can encoura*e))or at least allo( and sustain))the

chan*e, dislocation, upheaval, and pain that capitalis$ often involves, (hile providin* theirtu$ultuous $aret societies (ith appropriate re*ulatory and le*al fra$e(ors, *ro( s(iftly."hey produce cuttin*)ed*e technolo*ies that translate into $ilitary and econo$ic po(er. "hey

are a&le to invest in education, $ain* their (orforces ever $ore productive. "hey typicallydevelop li&eral political institutions and cultural nor$s that value, or at least tolerate, dissent

and that allo( people of di'erent political and reli*ious vie(points to colla&orate on a vastsocial pro+ect of $odernihen crisis stries, they are 0uic to decidethat capitalis$ is a failure and loo for alternatives. :o far, such half)hearted e/peri$ents notonly have failed to (orK they have left the societies that have tried the$ in a pro*ressively

(orse position, farther &ehind the front)runners as ti$e *oes &y. 5r*entina has lost *round to-hileK Russian develop$ent has fallen farther &ehind that of the altic states and -entralEurope. re0uently, the crisis has (eaened the po(er of the $erchants, industrialists,#nanciers, and professionals (ho (ant to develop a li&eral capitalist society inte*rated into the

(orld. -risis canalso stren*thenthe hand of reli*ious e/tre$ists, populist

radicals, or authoritarian traditionalists(ho are deter$ined to resist li&eralcapitalist society for a variety of reasons. ean(hile, the co$panies and &ans &ased in thesesocieties are often less esta&lished and $ore vulnera&le to the conse0uences of a #nancial

crisis than $ore esta&lished #r$s in (ealthier societies. 5s a result, developin* countries andcountries (here capitalis$ has relatively recent and shallo( roots tend to su'er *reaterecono$ic and political da$a*e (hen crisis stries))as, inevita&ly, it does. 5nd, conse0uently,

#nancial crises often reinforce rather than challen*e the *lo&al distri&ution of po(er and(ealth. "his $ay &e happenin* yet a*ain. None of (hich $eans that (e can +ust sit &ac anden+oy the recession. History $ay su**est that #nancial crises actually help capitalist *reatpo(ers $aintain their leads))&ut it has other, less reassurin* $essa*es as (ell. If #nancial

crises have &een a nor$al part of life durin* the 633)year rise of the li&eral capitalist syste$


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under the 5n*lophone po(ers, so has (ar. "he (ars of the Fea*ue of 5u*s&ur* and the:panish :uccessionK the :even ears >arK the 5$erican RevolutionK the Napoleonic >arsK thet(o >orld >arsK the cold (ar% "he list of (ars is al$ost as lon* as the list of #nancial crises.

ad econo$ic ti$escan &reed (ars. Europe (as a pretty peaceful place in 19S,

&ut the ;epression poisoned @er$anpu&lic opinionand helped &rin*5dolfHitler to power :f the current crisis turns into a depression, whatrough beasts $ight start slouching toar# Mosco! Karachi! =eiing! or Ne ;e$hi to

be bornO"he United :tates $ay not, yet, decline, &ut, if (e canPt *et the (orldecono$y&ac on trac#, we $aystill have to #*ht.


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Econo$y T/ De$ocracyEcono$ic crises collapse global de$ocracyDia$ond 2Farry ;ia$ond, senior fello( L Hoover Institution :upportin* ;e$ocracy,arch 339, http%??csis.or*?#les?$edia?csis?pu&s?393613ClennonCde$ocracyC(e&.pdf,

.econd, there is the new fact of a global econo$ic crisis ofpotentially catastrophic scope , depth, and duration :n thin#ingabout grand strategy, this has to be considered a potential ga$echanger We cannot rule out the possibility that what is now arecession could turn into a global depression -5nd even if it is 2+ust2arecession, it (ill &e the $ost severe in decades. Econo$ic crisis stresses regi$esof all #inds, and the last global depression coincided with aretrench$ent of de$ocracy so sweeping that .a$uel "untingtonidenti


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Econo$y T/ DiseaseEcono$ic collapse causes diseases and growth solves it+o#lany =h;, science and tech policy analyst for the U: ;ept of the Interior

Indur , .:. and =h.; are fro$ ichi*an :tate University, the i$provin* state of the (orld,

pa*e nu$&er &elo( in 7&racetsD

"hans to the cycle of pro*ress, hu$anity, thou*h $ore populous and still

i$perfect, has never been in better condition The ne7t few decades (illsee a (orld that (ill al$ost certainly &e $ore populatedthan it is today. Ifthe cycle of pro*ress is una&le to advance this additional &urden or is

slo(ed si*ni#cantlyfor (hatever reason, our children (ill inherit a (orld(here hun*er, poverty, and infectious and parasitic diseases clai$ ever *reaternu$bers, as (ell as (here hu$anityPs 0uest for food, clothin*, and shelter diverts even

lar*er shares of land and (ater a(ay fro$ the rest of nature. 5lternatively, the cycle ofpro*ress could continue to $ove farther and faster *ivin* us a (orld

(here the population has sta&iliealso need econo$ic *ro(th &ecause it cataly


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and launchin* ne( o'enses. Inevita&ly, hu$anind (ill &e e/posed tone an# more 'iru$ent %orms o% old diseases. 5nd to co)e ith thosetoo, (e (ill need to$uster all our resources and in*enuity ._ . In a cele&rated article half)a)centurya*o, the e$inent $athe$atician, John von Neu$ann, ased (hether hu$anind

can survive technolo*y.9B >e no( no( the ans(er% +e cannot sur'i'e ithout itO

certainly not if (e (ant to $aintain the 0uality of our lives or the environ$ent, considerin* thenu$&ers that e/ist today or (ill e/ist in the future. ut technolo*y is not enou*hK ( ealso need econo$ic develop$ent. 5lthou*h there are no *uarantees, actin*

to*ether, theyO$ore than anythin* elseOo'er the &est hope fortechnolo*ical

pro*ress , (ithout (hich (e cannot e/pand current li$its to *ro(th.


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Econo$y T/ "ege$onyEcono$ic collapse turns hege$ony@geopolitical shifts,under$ines will, destroys alliances)oth#opf 2;avid, 4isitin* ello( L -arne*ie Endo($ent for IntMl =eace, 6?11?9. -X

-on*ressional "esti$ony, Fe/is

>e haveonly e/perienced the #rst (ave of shocs associated (ith the

international econo$ic collapse. It is still too early to say ho( lon* the econo$icdi$ensions of the *lo&al do(nturn (ill continue to challen*e leaders and populations(orld(ide, and (hile it is i$possi&le to predict ho( $uch further conditions (ill deteriorate&efore the *lo&al econo$y &e*ins to recover as it inevita&ly (ill, one set of conse0uences of

the crisis can &e predicted (ith a hi*h de*ree of con#dence. 5 crisis of this severity, one thataccordin* to the $ost recent esti$ate &y the >orld an (ill produce net *lo&al contraction in339, that has already &rou*ht U.:. stoc $arets to 1 year lo(s strippin* a(ay over half

their value, that has deeply eaten into (orld trade cuttin* volu$es &y al$ost a third and intocapital Go(s and shaen the *lo&al #nancial syste$ to its very foundations, (ill unavoida&lyproduce a series of political aftershocs. 5 recent report for the 5sian ;evelop$ent an

su**ests the crisis has already o&literated appro/i$ately WB3 trillion in asset value (orld(ide )the e0uivalent of rou*hly a year of *lo&al econo$ic output. >e have already seen politicalreactions in pu&lic de$onstrations and other violent episodes in a diverse list of countriesincludin* @reece, -hina, Haiti, Fatvia, olivia, ul*aria, Russia, Italy, Ireland, Iceland andFithuania. ut these events are +ust the #rst ru$&lin*s of upsets that al$ost certainly (ill

ulti$ately &e far $ore serious and (ill have i$portant national security conse0uences for the

U.:.. urther, the crisis $ay in the lon*er run produce lastin* *eopoliticalshiftsas po(er is concentrated in the hands of nations (ith availa&le capital, dra(n a(ayfro$ those (ho are net &orro(ers, and *reater and *reater constraints li$it the options ofnations (ho are liely to spend years seein* to (or do(n the de&ts incurred durin* this ti$eof severe *lo&al contraction. "his ne( reality (as reGected in the fact that ;irector of NationalIntelli*ence lair in his e&ruary 1, 339 testi$ony to the :enate :elect -o$$ittee on

Intelli*ence on the Intelli*ence -o$$unityPs 5nnual "hreat 5ssess$ent cited the crisis as the

pri$ary driver of concerns in todayPs (orld. 5s he clearly stated, 2"he pri$ary near)ter$security concern of the United :tates is the *lo&al econo$ic crisis and its *eopolitical

i$plications.2 In fact, durin* the past fe( $onths, as the crisis has &rou*ht do(n*overn$entsIceland and threatened othersacross Eastern Europe, it hasalso had $ore pernicious e'ects that are harder to see. @reatest ofthese is certainly itsi$pact on the United :tates, reducin* the resources availa&le tothis country as (ell as see$in*ly eatin* a(ay at the political (ill that (ould &ere0uired if the U.:. (ere to play the active, &road)ran*in*internationally sta&iliorld >ar. 5ddin* to this is the (eaenin* of our core

alliances, not in ter$s of the desire to colla&orate, &ut rather &ecause allies have

&een preoccupied &y challen*es at ho$e. :o$e leadin* allies, nota&ly the EU,have in recent (ees seen the via&ility of their core institutions 0uestioned."he

(eaenin* of international institutionshas &een a related conse0uence of thecrisis. >ithout a de*ree of #nancial support and political Ge/i&ility for vital or*aniorld an that see$s unliely at the $o$ent, (e $ay (ell #nd ourselves ata true crossroads for the international syste$. 5t precisely the instance that the crisis has

revealed a need for *reater *lo&al re*ulatory oversi*ht and stron*er #nancial institutions toprevent and to respond to crisis, risin* nationalis$, the political i$perative of turnin* in(ard,


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and li$ited resources threaten e/istin* institutions (ith irrelevance and needed ne( ones (ith

&ein* still&orn. @iven other (eanesses in this syste$, such as thedu&ious value) added of $uch of the United Nations, the unsettlin*recent trac record of the *lo&al non)proliferation re*i$e, the trou&les

at the >"Q (ith the ;oha Round and the failure to esta&lish, as yet, a

*lo&al environ$ental or*aniar."he challen*es the syste$ faces are $ade all the$ore co$ple/ &y the need to rethin the steerin* co$$ittee for this syste$ and reco*ni


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A strong economy is key to American hegemony

er*uson, 6 Niall, orei*n 5'airs, He*e$ony or E$pire

http%??(((.forei*na'airs.co$?articles?B933?niall)fer*uson?he*e$ony)or)e$pirepa*e[! ,:epte$&er?Qcto&er 336

"he authorsP ar*u$ent a&out the uni0ueness of 5$erican he*e$ony rests on four $ainpillars. "he $ost o&vious is econo$ic% as they point out, the U.:. econo$y hasoutstripped al$ost all of its co$petitors for $uch of the past century. "his point isdeveloped &y another of the &ooPs contri&utors, 5n*us addison, and e/plored in

al$ost encyclopedic depth in the chapter &y oses 5&ra$ovit< and =aul ;avid.5ccordin* to these authors, nothin* achieved &y the United 8in*do$ )) not even in the#rst Gush of the Industrial Revolution )) ever co$pared (ith the United :tatesP recentecono$ic predo$inance.

:econd, the authors point to the (ay the United :tates has very deli&erately used itspo(er to advance $ultilateral, $utually &alanced tari' reductions under the @eneral5*ree$ent on "ari's and "rade later the >orld "rade Qr*ani


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Econo$y T/ Hoverty+rowth solves poverty and collapse causes itDollar and Sraay 5T ;avid ;ollar is Head of the acroecono$ics and @ro(th@roup in the Research ;epart$ent of the >orld an. 5art 8raay is a :enior Econo$ist in the

;evelop$ent Research @roup of the >orld anPs ;evelop$ent Econo$ics 4ice =residency

@ro(th is @ood for the =oor. Journal of Econo$ic @ro(th, A. 33.http%??siteresources.(orld&an.or*?;E-?Resources?31BC@ro(thCisC@oodCforC=oor.pdf

5vera*e inco$es of the poor est #fth of a country on avera*e rise or fallat the sa$e rate as avera*e inco$es. "his is a conse0uence of the

stron* e$pirical re*ularity that the share of inco$e of the poorest #fthdoes not vary syste$atically (ith avera*e inco$es, in a lar*e sa$ple ofcountries spannin* the past four decades. "his relationship holds across re*ions and inco$elevels, and in nor$al ti$es as (ell as durin* crises. >e also #nd that a variety of pro)*ro(th

$acroecono$ic policies, such as lo( inGation, $oderate siorin* =eople, 5nd "he iddle


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o'ers authoritative insi*ht and opinion on international ne(s, politics, &usiness, #nance,science and technolo*y. red.

@ro(th ;ecreases =overty In 1993)313 the drivin* force &ehind the reduction of (orld(idepoverty (as *ro(th. Qver the past decade, developin* countries have &oosted their @;= a&out

\ a yearO1.B points $ore than in 193)93. "his happened despite the (orst (orld(ideecono$ic crisis since the 1963s. "he three re*ions (ith the lar*est nu$&ers of poor people all

re*istered stron* *ains in @;= after the recession% at S\ a year in East 5siaK A\ in :outh 5siaKB\ in 5frica. 5s a rou*h *uide, every 1\ increase in @;= per head reduces poverty &y around

1.A\. @;=, thou*h, is not necessarily the &est $easure of livin* standards and povertyreduction. It is usually &etter to loo at household consu$ption &ased on surveys. artinRavallion, until recently the >orld anMs head of research, too 933 such surveys in 1B

developin* countries. "hese sho(, he calculates, that consu$ption in developin* countries has*ro(n &y +ust under \ a year since 19S3. ut there has &een a sharp increase since 333.efore that, annual *ro(th (as 3.9\K after it, the rate leapt to !.6\. @ro(th alone does not*uarantee less poverty. Inco$e distri&ution $atters, too. Qne esti$ate found that t(o thirds of

the fall in poverty (as the result of *ro(thK one)third ca$e fro$ *reater e0uality. ore e0ualcountries cut poverty further and faster than une0ual ones. r Ravallion recons that a 1\increase in inco$es cut poverty &y 3.\ in the $ost une0ual countries &ut &y !.6\ in the$ost e0ual ones."he country that cut poverty the $ost (as -hina, (hich in 19S3 had the

lar*est nu$&er of poor people any(here. -hina sa( a hu*e increase in inco$e ine0ualityO&uteven $ore *ro(th. et(een 19S1 and 313 it lifted a stunnin* S3$ people out povertyO$ore than the entire current population of Fatin 5$erica. "his cut its poverty rate fro$ S!\ in

19S3 to a&out 13\ no(. -hina alone accounts for around three 0uarters of the (orldMs totaldecline in e/tre$e poverty over the past 63 years. >hat is less often realised is that therecent story of poverty reduction has not &een all a&out -hina. et(een 19S3 and 333 *ro(thin developin* countries outside the iddle 8in*do$ (as 3.\ a year. ro$ 333 to 313 the

rate rose to 6.S\Osi$ilar to the pattern if you include -hina. r Ravallion calculates that theacceleration in *ro(th outside -hina since 333 has cut the nu$&er of people in e/tre$epoverty &y S3$. -an this continue 5nd if it does, (ill it eradicate e/tre$e poverty &y 363"o eep poverty reduction *oin*, *ro(th (ould have to &e $aintained at so$ethin* lie its

current rate. ost forecasters do e/pect that to happen, thou*h pro&le$s in Europe could spillover and da$a*e the *lo&al econo$y. :uch lon*)ran*e forecasts are inevita&ly unrelia&le &utt(o &road trends $ae an opti$istic account so$e(hat plausi&le. Qne is that fast)*ro(in*

developin* countries are tradin* $ore (ith each other, $ain* the$ $ore resilient than theyused to &e to shocs fro$ the rich (orld. "he other trend is that the t(o parts of the (orld (iththe lar*est nu$&ers of poor people, India and 5frica, are seein* an e/pansion of their (orin*)a*e populations relative to the nu$&ers of dependent children and old people. Even so,

countries potentially face a pro&le$ of di$inishin* returns (hich could $ae pro*ress at thesecond sta*e slo(er than at the #rst. "here is no si*n so far that returns are in factdi$inishin*. "he poverty rate has fallen at a ro&ust one percenta*e point a year over the past63 yearsOand there has &een no tailin* o' since 33B. ut di$inishin* returns could occur for

t(o reasons. >hen poverty (ithin a country falls to very lo( levels, the fe( re$ainin* poor arethe hardest to reach. 5nd, *lo&ally, as $ore people in countries such as -hina &eco$e $iddleclass, poverty (ill &eco$e concentrated in fra*ile or failin* states (hich have seen little

poverty reduction to date. "he s(eetest spot In a study for the rooin*s Institution, a thin)tan in >ashin*ton, ;-, Faurence -handy, Natasha Fedlie and 4eronia =enciaova loo at thedistri&ution of consu$ption ho( $any people consu$e W1 a day, W a day and so on indevelopin* countries. "hey sho( ho( it has chan*ed over ti$e, and ho( it $i*ht chan*e in

future. =lotted on a chart, the distri&ution loos lie a #re$anMs hel$et, (ith a pea in frontand a lon* tail &ehind. In 1993 there (ere hardly any people (ith no inco$e at all, then a pea+ust &elo( the poverty line and then a lon* tail of richer fol e/tendin* o' to the ri*ht seechart . 5s countries *et richer, the hel$et $oves to the ri*ht, reGectin* the *ro(th in

household consu$ption. "he faster the rate, the farther to the ri*ht the line $oves, so thestron* !.6\ annual *ro(th in consu$ption since 333 has pushed the line a *ood distanceri*ht(ard. ut the shape of the line also $atters. "he chart sho(s that in 1993 and 333, the

pea (as positioned sli*htly to the left of the poverty line. 5s the shape $oved to the ri*ht, it


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too a section of the pea to the other side of the poverty $ar. "his represents the sur*e ofpeople (ho escaped poverty in 1993)313. 5t the $o$ent the (orld is at a uni0ue s(eetspot. ore people are livin* at W1.B than at any other level of consu$ption. "his $eans*ro(th (ill result in $ore people $ovin* across the international poverty line than across any

other level of consu$ption. "his is a &i* reason (hy *ro(th is still producin* &i* falls inpoverty. ut as countries continue to *ro(, and as the line continues to &e pulled to the ri*ht,thin*s start to chan*e. No(, the pea &e*ins to Gatten. In 313, accordin* to r -handy, there

(ere SB$ people livin* at or +ust &elo( the poverty line at a consu$ption level &et(een W1.3and W1.B a day. If poverty falls at its trend rate, the nu$&er of people livin* at W1.3)1.B aday (ill also fall% to B$ in 33 and S$ in 363. "his is *ood ne(s, of course% there (ill &efe(er poor people. ut it $eans the rate of poverty reduction $ust slo( do(n, even if

consu$ption continues to *ro( fast. 5s r -handy says, unless *ro(th *oes throu*h the roof,it is not possi&le to $aintain the trend rate of poverty reduction (ith so $any fe(erindividuals ready to cross the line.


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Econo$y T/ )acis$Econo$ic collapse turns racis$AH 2U.N. -hief% ad Econo$y "hreatens ore Racis$. URF%http%??(((.fo/ne(s.co$?story?3,966,B1A1A,33.ht$l. ;5% A?1!?11.

U.N. -hief% ad Econo$y "hreatens ore Racis$ U.N. :ecretary)@eneralan8i)$oon ur*ed the (orldonday to rally a*ainst thethreat that

intolerancecould rise as a result of the econo$ic crisis, sayin* 2the ti$eis no(2 to sta$p out racis$. an, openin* the *lo&al &odyPs #rst racis$ conferencein ei*ht years, said racis$ includin* anti):e$itis$ and Isla$opho&ia needed

to &e tacled. 2I fear that todayPs econo$ic crisis , if not handled properly,could evolve into a full)scale political crisis $ared &y social unrest,(eaened *overn$ents and an*ry pu&lics (ho have lost faith in their

leaders and their o(n future,2 the U.N. chief said. 2In such circu$stances,the conse0uences for co$$unities already victi$iestern nations that have pulled out &ecause of fears usli$ nations

(ill do$inate the conference (ith calls for to denounce Israel and for a *lo&al &an on criticiest have tar*etedinnocent usli$s throu*h anti)terror and other police action. "hose de$ands had &een lar*elyresisted &y the United :tates and other >estern nations, so$e of (ho$ are participatin* in the


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conference. an steered clear of the issue of a *lo&al &an on reli*ious defa$ation, as

de$anded &y usli$ nations, &ut ur*ed action a*ainst a 2ne( politics of/enopho&ia2 that is on the rise and could &eco$e dra$atically (orseas aresult of ne( technolo*ies that proliferate hatred.


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Econo$y T/ )esource WarsEcono$ic collapse ensures nuclear resource warsJroward 2e$&er of "riond http%??ne(sGavor.co$?opinions?(ill)an)econo$ic)collapse)ill)youJ:

No( its ti$e to loo at the conse0uences of a failin* (orld econo$y .>ith #ve ocial nations havin* nuclear (eapons, and four $ore liely to have

the$ there could &e $a+or conse0uences of another (orld (ar."he #rstthin* that (ill happen after an econo$ic collapse (ill &e (ar overresources."he United :tates currency (ill &eco$e useless and (ill have no (ay of securin*reserves."he United :tates has little to no capacity to produce oil, it is

totally dependent on forei*n oil.If the United :tates stopped *ettin* forei*n oil,the *overn$ent (ould *o to no ends to secure $ore, if there (ere a

(ar (ith any other $a+or po(er over oil, lie Russia or -hina, these(ars (ould $ost liely involve nuclear (eapons. Qnce one nation

launches a nuclear (eapon, there (ould of course &e retaliation , and(ith #ve or $ore countries (ith nuclear (eapons there (ould $ost liely &e a (orld

nuclear (ar."he ris is so hi*h that actin* to save the econo$y is the$ost i$portant issue facin* us in the 1st century.


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Econo$y T/ Terroris$Econo$ic decline leads to terroris$Tho$as 97John "ho$as, =rofessor of Econo$ics, January 1S 33S, ecer)=osner lo*,5ccessed 5pril S 33S, http%??(((.&ecer)posner)

&lo*.co$?archives?33S?31?terroris$CandCe.ht$lD

Ho(ever $ack o% economic groth a$so he$)s terrorism. "o $ana*e in the $odern (orld, every

country re0uires an intellectual class, and ithout su%%icient economic groth this inte$$ectua$ c$ass is

o%ten i#$e or their )artia$$y e#ucate# chi$#ren are i#$e an# $ike$y somehat unem)$oye#! an# thus ri)e %or

ra#ica$ism. 5lso, $ack o% economic groth ten#s to su))ort the i#ea that the nation has %a$$en behin# as a

great )oer- Peo)$e a$ays $ike to %ee$ $ike their )art o% a great )oer an# economic groth makes )eo)$e

%ee$ $ike i% they are not )art o% a great )oer they are becoming )art o% one- Much o% the #iscontent in the

Mus$im or$# is %rom the i#ea that the Mus$im or$# has %a$$en behin# the +est an# thus it must become a

great )oer by any means necessari$y->


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Hoverty T/ Terroris$'overty creates the structural conditions necessary for

terrorism to occur.

"ice! senior %e$$o at the =rookings (nstitute! 06

?Susan @- "ice! *he Nationa$ (nterest! A*he *hreat o% $oba$ Po'erty!B $4n

Ho(ever, the pri$ary 8aw in the conventional argu$ent that poverty isunrelated to terroris$ is its failure to capture the range of ways in whichpoverty can e7acerbate the threat of transnational terroris$ -- not at theindividual level -- but at the state and regional level Hoverty bears indirectlyon terroris$ by spar#ing con8ict and eroding state capacity, both of whichcreate conditions that can facilitate terrorist activity.

Q/ford University econo$ist =aul -ollier #nds that if a country0s per capita inco$e

doubles, its ris# of con8ict drops by roughly half.B

5 country at WB3 @;= per

capita has an avera*e 1B\ ris of internal conGict over #ve years, (hile a country at

WB,333 per capita has a ris of less than 1\.

Con8ict %ones not only cost lives,

they can incubate virtually every type of transnational security threat bycreating the opti$al anarchic environ$ent for e7ternal predators Al Faedaestablished training ca$ps in con8ict-ridden .udan and Afghanistan, purchaseddia$onds fro$ :ierra Feone and Fi&eria, and no( tar*et 5$erican soldiers in Ira0.While low per capita inco$e increases the li#elihood of civil con8ict, con8ict%ones, in turn, have been e7ploited by terrorists to lure foot soldiersand trainne( cadres, as in osnia, the =hilippines and -entral 5sia.

In e/tre$e cases, conGict results in state failure as in :o$alia and 5f*hanistan. >henstates collapse, the cli$ate for predatory transnational actors is i$proved e/ponentially.Econo$ic privation is an i$portant indicator of state failure. "he -I5Ms :tate

ailure "as orce found that states in (hich hu$an su'erin* is ra$pant as $easured

&y hi*h infant $ortality are .6 ti$es $ore liely to fail than others.A

>hile poor

econo$ic conditions are not the only $a+or ris factor for state (eaness and failure,

they are (idely understood to &e an i$portant contri&utor alon* (ith partialde$ocrati


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inade0uate, creatin* voids in education and health that $ay &e #lled &y radical N@Qs or$adrassas. In Indonesia, the :ahel and an*ladesh, for e/a$ple, international Isla$iccharities are closin* the (elfare *ap. In =aistan and E*ypt, radical *roups o'er social(elfare services that *overn$ents fail to provide. In the =alestinian territories, Ha$asM

stunnin* electoral victory (as due in part to its superior provision of social services."errorist net(ors often use le*iti$ate and ille*iti$ate charities as fronts to *arnerpopular support.


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Econo$y T/ WarDecline causes war@strong statistical support)oyal 4&Jedediah, ;irector of -ooperative "hreat Reduction at the U.:. ;epart$ent of;efense, 313, Econo$ic Inte*ration, Econo$ic :i*nalin* and the =ro&le$ of Econo$ic -rises,

in Econo$ics of >ar and =eace% Econo$ic, Fe*al and =olitical =erspectives, ed. @olds$ith and

rauer, p. 16)1B

Fess intuitive is ho( periods of econo$ic decline $ay increase thelielihood of e/ternal conGict. =olitical science literature has contri&uted a$oderate de*ree of attention to the i$pact of econo$ic decline and the security and

defence &ehaviour of interdependent stales. Research in this vein has &een considered atsyste$ic, dyadic and national levels. :everal nota&le contri&utions follo(. irst, on thesyste$ic level. =ollins 33S1 advances odclsi and "ho$psonPs 199 (or on

leadership cycle theory, #ndin* that rhyth$s in the *lo&al econo$y are

associated (ith the rise and fall of a pre)e$inent po(er and theoften &loody transition fro$ one pre)e$inent leader to the ne/t . 5ssuch, e/o*enous shocs such as econo$ic crises could usher in a

redistri&ution of relative po(er see also @ilpin. 19:J that leads touncertainty a&out po(er &alances, increasin* the ris of$iscalculation caron. 199B. 5lternatively, even a relatively certainredistri&ution of po(er could lead to a per$issive environ$ent for

conGict as a risin* po(er $ay see to challen*e a declinin* po(er>erner. 1999. :eparately. =ollins 199 also sho(s that *lo&al econo$ic cycles co$&ined(ith parallel leadership cycles i$pact the lielihood of conGict a$on* $a+or, $ediu$ ands$all po(ers, althou*h he su**ests that the causes and connections &et(een *lo&al

econo$ic conditions and security conditions re$ain unno(n. :econd, on a dyadic level.

-opelandPs 199. 333 theory of trade e/pectations su**ests that Pfuturee/pectation of tradeP is a si*ni#cant varia&le in understandin*

econo$ic conditions and security &ehaviour of states . He ar*uesthat interdependent states are liely to *ain paci#c &ene#ts fro$trade so lon* as they have an opti$istic vie( of future traderelations.Ho(ever, if the e/pectations of future trade decline ,

particularly for dicult to replace ite$s such as ener*y resources,the lielihood for conGict increases, as states (ill &e inclined to useforce to *ain access to those resources. -rises could potentially &e the tri**erfor decreased trade e/pectations either on its o(n or &ecause it tri**ers protectionist

$oves &y interdependent states.! "hird, others have considered the lin &et(een econo$icdecline and e/ternal ar$ed conGict at a national level. o$ &er* and Hess 33 #nd astron* correlation &et(een internal conGict and e/ternal conGict, particularly durin* periods

of econo$ic do(nturn. "hey (rite."he lina*e, &et(een internal ande/ternal conGict and prosperity are stron* and $utually reinforcin*.Econo$ic conGict lends to spa(n internal conGict, (hich in turnreturns the favour. oreover, the presence of a recession tends to a$plify the e/tentto (hich international and e/ternal conGicts self)reinforce each other Hlo$hen ] Hess.13. p. 9b Econo$ic decline has also &een lined (ith an increase in the lielihood ofterroris$ lo$&cr*. Hess. ] >ee ra pan a, 33!. (hich has the capacity to spill across

&orders and lead to e/ternal tensions. urther$ore, crises *enerally reduce the


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popularity of a sittin* *overn$ent. 2;iversionary theory2 su**ests

that, (hen facin* unpopularity arisin* fro$ econo$ic decline, sittin**overn$ents have increased incentives to fa&ricate e/ternal $ilitaryconGicts to create a Prally around the Ga*P e'ect. >an* 199, ;cRoucn199B, and lo$&cr*. Hess, and "hacer 33 #nd supportin* evidence sho(in* that

econo$ic decline and use of force arc at least indirecti correlated. @elpi 199A. iller1999. and 8isan*ani and =icerin* 339 su**est that Ihe tendency to(ards diversionarytactics arc *reater for de$ocratic states than autocratic states, due to the fact that

de$ocratic leaders are *enerally $ore suscepti&le to &ein* re$oved fro$ oce due to lacof do$estic support. ;eRouen 333 has provided evidence sho(in* that periods of (eaecono$ic perfor$ance in the United :tates, and thus (ea =residential popularity, are

statistically lined lo an increase in the use of force. In su$$ary, rcccni econo$ic

scholarship positively correlates econo$ic inte*ration (ith anincrease in the fre0uency of econo$ic crises, (hereas politicalscience scholarship lins econo$ic decline (ith e/ternal conGictalsyste$ic, dyadic and national levels.P "his i$plied connection &et(een inte*ration, crisesand ar$ed conGict has not featured pro$inently in the econo$ic)security de&ate anddeserves $ore attention.


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Econo$y T/ War$ingCollapse turns war$ing and the environ$ent@no fundsfor green tech and other priorities)ichard 913?13?3S ichael @raha$, F.F.=, Fa( ! Reasons >hy Recession is 5; for

the Environ$ent http%??(((.hun*tonpost.co$?$ichael)*raha$)richard?!)reasons)(hy)recession)iC&C166B!.ht$l R

1 >hen s0ueeust released their hich $eans that anyone tain* the outputs of

those I=-- reports seriously needs to tae these inputs seriously. y *eneral points can &e

$ade 0uite si$ply (ith the aid of t(o of their charts. We #now very well thatthere0s a connection between econo$ic growth and populationsi


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their e6ects on econo$ic growth, $ight induce co$petition a$onggroups inside a state and thus increase the li#elihood of con8ict

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