vrcai 2011 billinghurst keynote
DESCRIPTION
Keynote presentation by Mark Billinghurst for the VRCAI 2011 conference - December 11th, 2011.TRANSCRIPT
The Reality of Augmented Reality
Mark Billinghurst
The HIT Lab NZ, University of Canterbury
December 2011
Falling in Love
1989…
Virtual Reality Was COOL!
Joining the HIT Lab in Seattle
Only $250K for 1500 polygons/sec!
My VR Predictions I knew everyone would use VR when:
HMDs were cheap (<$300) Computers generate millions of
polys/sec Tracking was inexpensive Good 3D input devices
Cheap HMDs
Gartner Hype Cycle
1990-95
1995-2000
April 2007 Computer World VR Voted 7th on list of 21 biggest technology
flops - MS Bob Winner
Back to Reality 1999 Fred Brooks – “What’s Real about
Virtual Reality” In 1994 VR barely works In 1999 VR is now really real
3 stages of application maturity: Demonstration Pilot Production
There are successful VR application domains
VR Business Today
> $3-5 Billion VR business (+ > $150 Billion Graphics Industry) Visualization, simulation, gaming, CAD/CAE, multimedia, graphics arts
> $3-5 Billion
Lessons learned Don’t believe the hype Many factors determine technology
acceptance- Design for users
Need to move from Demo to Production- Profitable niche markets
Follow the money
What’s Real About Augmented Reality?
Key Questions Where is AR technology today? What are the key opportunities? What are research obstacles? Where will the technology be in 5-10
years?
AR History1960’s – 80’s: Early
Experiments1980’s – 90’s: Basic
Research Tracking, displays
1995 – 2005: Tools/Applications Interaction, usability, theory
2005 - : Commercial Applications Games, Medical, Industry
2007 - AR Reaches Mainstream
MIT Technology Review March 2007 list of the 10 most
exciting technologies Economist
Dec 6th 2007 Reality, only better
Google Searches for AR
2009 Key crossover point – More people interested in AR than VR
Gartner’s top 10 disruptive technologies 2008-2012: Multicore and hybrid processors Virtualisation and fabric computing Social networks and social software Cloud computing and cloud/Web platforms Web mashups User Interface Ubiquitous computing Contextual computing Augmented reality Semantics
AR Technology Today
1977 – Star Wars
Key Features Classic Augmented Reality (Azuma 97)
Combines Real and Virtual Images- Display technology
Interactive in Real-Time- Real time graphics
Content Registered in 3D- Viewpoint tracking
Other Features Shared 3D viewing
- Individual views
HMD, HMD, HMD...
Tracking, Tracking, TrackingContoursFeature Points
Surfaces
1999 - HIT Lab US Shared Space
AR Conferencing
Moves conferencing from the desktop to the workspace
Virtual Viewpoint Generation
3D Live System
2008 - CNN
The Red Planet (2000)
Outdoor AR Flexible Lens Surface
Bimanual interaction Digital paper analogy
AR FlexiLens
Real handles/controllers with flexible AR lens
2008: Location Aware Phones
Nokia NavigatorMotorola Droid
HIT Lab NZ Outdoor AR Platform
Cross platform Android, iPhone
3D onsite visualization Intuitive user interface
Positions content in space Camera, GPS, compass
Client/Server software architecture Targeting museum guide/outdoor site
applications
Earthquake Reconstruction
See past, present and future building designs Earthquake survivor stories shown on map view Collect user comments Android platform
IronMan2
Natural Hand Interaction (2011)
Using bare hands to interact with AR content MS Kinect depth sensing Real time hand tracking Physics based simulation model
AR Today Key Technologies Available
- Robust tracking (Computer Vision, GPS/sensors)
- Display (Handheld HMDs)- Input Devices (Kinect, etc)- Developer tools (Qualcomm, Metaio, ARTW)
Commercial Business Growing- Gaming, GPS/Mobile, Online Advertisement
• >$5 Billion USD by 2016 (MarketsandMarkets)• >$1.5 Billion USD in Mobile AR by 2014 (Juniper Research)
AR Business Today Marketing
Web-based, mobile Mobile AR
Geo-located information and service Driving demand for high end phones
Gaming Mobile, Physical input (Kinect, PS Move)
Upcoming areas Manufacturing, Medical, Military
Research Directions
Important Research Directions
Fundamental Technologies Unobtrusive displays Ubiquitous tracking
Improving the user experience Interaction, Information management Social networking + AR
Standards (Content, interaction) Integrating with related technologies
AR User Experience
Future Displays
Always on, unobtrusive
Contact Lens Display Babak Parviz
University Washington MEMS components
Transparent elements Micro-sensors
Challenges Miniaturization Assembly Eye-safe
Contact Lens Prototype
Information Presentation
Public and private annotations Aid recognition, “extended memory”
Wikitude – www.mobilizy.com
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Information Filtering
Information Filtering Information Filtering (Julier et al. ’00)
• Remove clutter by goal- and distance based filtering • User’s task is route finding: Sniper and relevant buildings are displayed; objects, which are determined to be unnecessary, removed
Metaverse Neal Stephenson’s “SnowCrash” The Metaverse is the convergence of:
1) virtually enhanced physical reality 2) physically persistent virtual space
Metaverse Roadmap http://metaverseroadmap.org/
Metaverse Dimensions• Augmentation technologies that layer
information onto our perception of the physical environment.
• Simulation refers to technologies that model reality
• Intimate technologies are focused inwardly, on the identity and actions of the individual or object;
• External technologies are focused outwardly, towards the world at large;
Mirror Worlds Mirror worlds are informationally-
enhanced virtual models or “reflections” of the physical world. Google Earth, MS Street View, Google Maps
LifeLogging Technologies record and report the
intimate states and life histories of objects and users Nokia LifeBlog, Nike+
Ubiquitous AR (GIST, Korea)
How does your AR device work with other devices?
How is content delivered?
ubiHome @ GIST
ubiHome
What/When/How
Where/When
Media services
Who/What/When/How
ubiKey
Couch SensorPDA
Tag-it
Door Sensor
ubiTrack
When/HowWhen/HowWho/What/When/How
Light service MR window
CAMAR GIST(Context-Aware Mobile Augmented
Reality)
Conclusions
Conclusions AR is becoming a real industry Key areas of everyday use include
Location Based, Gaming Web-based, Mobile AR
Important research for the future Tracking, Interaction, Displays, User
experience
