v.ramakrishna member (power systems) central electricity authority

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V.RAMAKRISHNAMEMBER (POWER SYSTEMS)

CENTRAL ELECTRICITY AUTHORITY

GROWTH OF POWER SYSTEM IN THE COUNTRYGROWTH OF POWER SYSTEM IN THE COUNTRYANDAND

FUTURE PERSPECTIVEFUTURE PERSPECTIVE

by

28th APRIL, 2008

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11125, 8%4120, 3%1202, 1%

14656, 10%

35209, 25%

75002, 53%

Hydro Coal Gas Diesel Nuclear Wind/RES*

Installed Generating Capacity in the Country(31st March, 2008)

INSTALLED CAPACITY : FUEL WISE

Total – 1,43,061 MW

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State, 74615, 52%

Private, 20085, 14%

Central, 48361, 34%

INSTALLED CAPACITY : SECTOR WISE

Installed Generating Capacity in the Country (31st March, 2008)

Total – 1,43,061 MW

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1,100

21,18019,119

16,422

21,401

4,520 4,579

10,202

2,250

14,226

I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X

Fresh Capacity addition

during Plan period

2,886 4,653 9,027 16,664 26,680 42,585 63,636 85,795 1,05,046 1,32,329

Cumulative installed capacity at the end of Plan

PLAN PERIOD

GENERATING CAPACITY(all figures in MW)

Sectoral Performance over Five Year Plan Periods

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Generation Performance

9.6

662.5517.4

395.9

245.4

32.9 66.7 102.5

16.9

156.8

I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X

Generation during last year

of the Plan period (in BU)

61.9 62.2 71.1 74.3 84.849.2 53.0 60.3 67.0 70.657.5 69.5 71.2 74.7 86.352.4 56.5 64.4 69.9 76.8

6.7 7.9 11.5 7.5 9.911.7 16.7 18.0 11.8 13.5

PLF (in %) during last year of Plan period : Central SectorState SectorPrivate SectorOverall

Supply shortages: (as % of demand during last year of resp. Plan period) Energy Shortage (%)Peak Deficit (%)

PLAN PERIOD

Per Capita Consumption of Electricity in India

176348

559 632

1,000

2500

613

1980-81 1990-91 2000-01 2004-05 2005-06 2011-12 2031-32

kWh/year

(Projected)

As per UN Methodology (Gross Electrical Energy Availability / Population)

Growth Pattern

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Demand and Capacity Requirement –Plan-wise up to Year 2032 (as per IEP Report corresponding to 8% GDP growth)

Year Energy Reqmt.

(BU)

Peak Demand

(MW)

Total Installed Capacity

(MW)

Coal Based Installed Capacity

(MW)

No. of Super Critical Units

660/ 800 MW

2006-07

(actual)

691 1,00,715 1,32,329 71,121 NIL/ NIL

2011-12

( 11th Plan)

1097 1,58,000 2,29,648 1,27,161 10/ 2

2012-17 (12th Plan)

1524 2,26,200 3,06,000 1,63,161 12/ 31

2017-22 (13th Plan)

2118 3,23,000 4,25,000 2,25,000 12/ 50

2022-27 (14th Plan)

2866 4,37,000 5,75,000 3,04,000 10/ 70

2027-32 (15th Plan)

3880 5,92,000 7,78,000 4,12,000 10/ 100

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Action Plan for 11th Plan Period

Objectives

Sustain annual growth rate of over 8% Power supply

• Quality• Reliability

Power availability • Access• Affordability

Commercial viability • Operating systems & procedures • Loss reduction

Major Action Areas

- Generation - Transmission- Distribution - Rural Electrification

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Demand and Capacity Requirement for 11th Plan(as per 17th EPS Report)

Year Energy Requirement

(BU)

Peak Demand

(MW)

Proposed Capacity Addition during 5

year Plan (MW)

Cumulative Average

Gowth Rate (CAGR)

2011-12 1038 1,52,000 78,778

( 11th Plan)

9.5%

2016-17 1470 2,18,200 82,200

(12th Plan)

7.4%

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58,771 MW

16,627 MW

HYDRO

THERMAL

NUCLEAR

74.60%

21.11%

4.29%3,380 MW

CAPACITY ADDITION PROPOSED FOR 11th PLAN : FUEL WISE

Total 78,778 MW

Additional capacity expected : Renewables – 13,500 MW

: Captive – 12,000 MW

Generation

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CAPACITY ADDITION PROPOSED FOR 12th PLAN : FUEL WISE

Generation

Total 82,200 MW

12000, 15% 30000, 36%

40200, 49% Hydro Thermal Nuclear

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STATUS OF CAPACITY ADDITION LIKELY DURING 11th PLAN (as on 31.03.08)

* Additional capacity expected : Renewables (13,500 MW), Captive (12,000MW)

(all figures in MW)

Generation (Contd..)

Type Commissioned Under construction for commissioning during 11th Plan

Orders to be placed by

March, 2008

Total

Hydro 2,423 13,204 1,000 16,627

Thermal 6,620 46,483 5,668 58,771

Nuclear 220 3,160 - 3,380

Total 9,263 62,847 6,668 78,778

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YEAR WISE CAPACITY ADDITION TARGETS DURING 11th PLAN (MW)

2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 TOTAL

Hydro 2,423 1,097 1,805 1,741 9,561 16,627

Thermal 6,620 9,304 13,919 15,453 13,465 58,771

Nuclear 220 660 2,000 500 0 3,380

TOTAL 9,263 11061 17,724 17,694 23,026 78,778

Generation (Contd..)

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Transmission System Development

EMERGING SCENARIO ULTRA MEGA POWER PROJECTS TECHNOLOGY DELOPMENT/SOLUTIONS OPEN ACCESS AND POWER TRADING CHALLENGES IN POWER SYSTEM PLANNING TRANSMISSION TARIFF ISSUES

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CHRONOLOGYPRIOR TO 1948 Isolated Systems around Urban and Industrial Areas

ELECTRICITY (SUPPLY) ACT,1948. Coordinated Development - creation of CEA. Extending Electricity to Semi-urban and Rural areas. State Grid Systems - SEBs.

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• Development of State Grid Systems during 50s and 60s

• Regional Grids Concept: 1964Consolidation 70s, 80s

• Towards National Grid Focus: 1998Programme 1998 – 2012

• Electricity Act 2003: Open access in transmission

Growth of Power System

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Regional systems Region specific objectives Power evacuation and supply to area load centers Reliability and open access margins

National system Harnessing ER/NER resources on all India basis Phased development of cross-regional transmission system Long term perspective to address ROW and Chicken Neck

Regional wise export/ import objectives Reliability and open access margins

Development ObjectiveDevelopment Objective

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ADEQUACY THE ABILITY OF THE ELECTRIC SYSTEMS TO SUPPLY

ELECTRICAL DEMAND ENERGY REQUIREMENTS AT ALL TIMES, TAKING INTO ACCOUNT SCHEDULED AND REASONABLY EXPECTED UNSCHEDULED OUTAGES OF SYSTEM ELEMENTS.

SECURITY THE ABILITY OF THE ELECTRIC SYSTEMS TO

WITHSTAND SUDDEN DISTURBANCES SUCH AS ELECTRIC SHORT CIRCUITS OR UNANTICIPATED LOSS OF SYSTEM ELEMENTS.

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Transmission Planning Objectives

• Adequate and reliable system to meet the transmission needs.

• Reliable dispersal of power to each area.

• Fit into long-term plan and amenable for phased development.

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Transmission Planning Objectives cont..

De-licensing of generation is likely to result in influencing pattern of power flows requiring frequent reassessment of adequacies/inadequacies in the transmission network and necessary system strengthening from time to time.

There is also risk of stranded assets in transmission on account of variation in generation growth with respect to that based on which transmission network was developed.

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Transmission Planning Objectives cont….

• Obtaining right of way for new transmission lines has become increasingly difficult. Therefore, there is a need to optimize the power transmission corridors. Use of extra/ultra high voltage and high capacity lines, multi circuit lines and increasing transmission capability of existing lines through use of re-conductoring using Aluminum – alloy conductors or series compensation and flexible alternating current transmission systems (FACTS) devices where optimal, are the possible solutions.

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Establishment of Regional Electricity Boards

Development of Inter-state lines through Centrally Sponsored Schemes/ Common generation projects

Regional Grid through Central Sector Transmission

REGIONAL GRIDS

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DEVELOPMENT OF INDIAN POWER SYSTEM

CONCEPT TILL 2002

Generation & transmission development on Regional self sufficiency.

Inter-regional lines for limited exchange of operational surpluses through asynchronous links.

Exchange in radial mode between ER - NR, WR - SR & ER - NR.

Surplus available not being fully utilized in other deficit regions as previous plans were not for bulk inter-regional transfer.

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DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY PERSPECTIVE

SUBSTANTIAL SAVINGS POSSIBLE WITH POWER DEVELOPMENT PLANNED ON COUNTRYWISE BASIS AND THE SYSTEM OPERATED ACCORDINGLY

SAVINGS ON ACCOUNT OF: DEMAND DIVERSITIES RESERVE SHARING OPTIMAL LOCATION OF GENERATION ENHANCED UTILISATION OF OPERATIONAL SURPLUSSES AND

MERIT ORDER GENERATION ON A WIDER SCALE.

TO ACHIEVE THE ABOVE A NATIONAL GRID IS REQUIRED TO BE DEVELOPED

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SPECIAL CHARACTERISTICS OF TRANSMISSION SYSTEM

MUST BE ADEQUATE AND RELIABLE TO MEET EVACUATION REQUIREMENT FOR EACH STATION SEPERATELY.

MUST PROVIDE RELIABLE DISPERSAL TO DISTRIBUTION NETWORK OF EACH AREA.

SHOULD FIT WELL INTO LONG TERM SYSTEM NEEDS

AMENABLE FOR STAGED DEVELOPMENT

OPTIMALLY UTILISE TRANSMISSION CORRIDORS

PLANNED TO MEET EXTREME CREDIBLE CONTINGENCIES

In case of inter regional lines this would mean increased surplus in normally surplus regions and simultaneously increased deficit in normally deficit region.

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Regional approach Peak demand, maximum hydro and off

peak conditions Maximum generation in a complex for

evacuation system

National approach Extreme dispatch scenario by

maximizing surplus in surplus region and deficit in deficit region

Combinations of surplus and deficit scenarios for different regions

Transmission Planning CriteriaTransmission Planning Criteria-- Dispatch schedules for planning -- Dispatch schedules for planning

studiesstudies

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Security Criteria

Trade-off of investments and risks

System should return to normal conditions after a single line to ground fault on a transmission line removed after 100ms

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The Landmark Events

1990 Generation of Electricity opened for Private Sector

1998 Electricity Regulatory Commission Act

1998 765kV transmission line (initially charged at 400kV)

2002 Synchronous inter-connection of ER and NER

2002 Concept of Development of All India National Power Grid

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The Landmark Events

2003 Electricity Act 2003 – Open access in Transmission

2003 Synchronization of WR with ER-NER system

2003 Inter-regional HVDC transmission system

2005-06 National Electricity Plan

2006 Synchronization of NR with ER-NER-WR

2007 765kV transmission line at 765kV operation

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RELIABILITY ISSUES AND GRID OPERATION

Planning Criteria :

Transmission matching with generation

Transmission capacity based on Regional Export/import

Evacuation schemes and System strengthening schemes

‘N-1’ contingency for mesh/loop system

‘N-2’ for large generation complex – >3000MW

‘N-2’ for large cities of above 2000MW load

‘N-1’ with no load shedding and no rescheduling

‘N-2’ could be with rescheduling but no load shedding

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Planning Criteria

Transmission capacity for transfer of full surplus in surplus region and to meet the deficit in deficit region considered in evolving National Grid.

The adequacy of the transmission system tested for different load generation scenarios corresponding to one or more of the following so as to test the scenario of maximum burden on the transmission system . Summer Peak Load; Summer Off-Peak Load; Winter Peak Load; Winter Off-Peak Load; Monsoon Peak Load; Monsoon Off-Peak Load.

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XI Plan Transmission PlanInter-regional Transmission Requirement

Winter Off Peak Winter Peak

Regions Availability DemandDeficit/ Surplus Availability Demand

Deficit/ Surplus

Northern 25098 31878 -6780 34770 45540 -10770

Western 44693 37219 7474 48544 53170 -4626

Southern 28802 26103 2699 34168 35426 -1258

Eastern 30035 11788 18247 32521 16840 15681

North-Eastern 2227 1862 365 3869 2660 1209

Total 130854 108850 22004 153871 153636 +235

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Monsoon Off Peak Monsoon Peak


Deficit/ Surplus

Northern 41435 31878 9557 43853 40986 2867

Western 44517 37219 7298 46228 47853 -1625

Southern 32070 26103 5967 34455 33561 894

Eastern 29755 11788 17967 30998 15156 15842

North-Eastern 5397 1862 3535 5807 2394 3413

Total 153173 108850 44323 161341 139950 21391

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Summer Off Peak Summer Peak


Deficit/ Surplus

Northern 36631 40986 -4355 40258 45540 -5282

Western 44486 37219 7267 47053 53170 -6117

Southern 30702 26103 4599 34279 37290 -3011

Eastern 29472 11788 17684 31336 16840 14496

North-Eastern 4279 1862 2417 5100 2660 2440

Total 145570 117958 27612 158026 155500 2526

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Maximum Inter-Regional Transmission Requirement – 2011-12

Region Requirement Scenario

Northern 10770 MW import Winter peak

Western 6117 MW import Summer peak

Southern 3011 MW import Summer peak

Eastern 18247 MW export Winter off-peak

North-eastern 3535 MW export Monsoon off-peak

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Inter-Regional transmission planned (2011-12)

Region Requirement MW Planned MW

Northern 10770 import 11500

Western 6117 import 9500

Southern 3011 import 3600

Eastern 18247 export 19350

NER 3535 export 5250

plus 7600 MW NR-WRand 2700 MW WR-SR

Plus 3000 MW of ER-NR with Siliguri terminal of 800kV HVDC

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Growth in Transmission System

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

132kV 120000 ckm

220kV 120000 ckm

400kV 82660 ckm

HVDC bi-pole capacity 5500MWHVDC back-to back 3000 MW

765kV lines 2550 ckm

1950 71 81 85 90 92 97 2002 2008

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TARGET FOR THE 11th PLAN PERIOD

Voltage Addition during the Plan Cumulative at end of the Plan

CKM MVA/ MW CKM MVA/ MW

HVDC 5,200 6,000 11,000 14,200

765 kV 5,400 51,000 7,130 53,000

400 kV 49,000 52,000 125,000 145,000

220 kV 35,000 73,000 150,000 230,000

Sector wise overall targets for addition during the Plan period : - Centre (Powergrid) 30,600 ckm / 92,000 MVA/ MW- State 45,000 ckm / 82,000 MVA/ MW- Private (including JV) 19,000 ckm / 8,000 MVA/ MW

94,600 ckm / 1,82,000 MVA/ MW

Transmission

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Region Hydro (I/C)

Thermal ( I/C)

Total (I/C)

Availability Dispatch

Demand Deficit(-)

Surplus(+)

NR 30000 45000 75000 47250 46500 60000 -13500

WR 8000 65000 73000 57650 56000 65000 -9000

SR 14000 48000 62000 46400 46000 50000 -4000

ER 10000 50000 60000 47500 47500 22500 25000

NE 9000 3000 12000 5250 7000 3500 1500

Total 71000 211000 282000 204050 201000 201000 0

Winter Peak

Inter-regional Transmission Requirement 2014-15

X Plan=130 GW, XI Plan +78 GW, XII Plan +82 GW

XII Plan End =290 GW. More Generation through LTOA

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Region Hydro (I/C)

Thermal ( I/C)

Total (I/C)


Demand Deficit(-)

Surplus(+)

NR 30000 45000 75000 54000 49000 60000 -11000

WR 8000 65000 73000 56800 54000 65000 -11000

SR 14000 48000 62000 46800 46000 50000 -4000

ER 10000 50000 60000 46000 45000 22500 22500

NE 9000 3000 12000 78000 7000 3500 3500

Total 71000 211000 282000 211400 201000 201000 00

Summer Peak


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Region Hydro (I/C)

Thermal ( I/C)

Total (I/C)


Demand Deficit(-)

Surplus(+)

NR 30000 45000 75000 60750 45000 54000 -9000

WR 8000 65000 73000 55950 49000 59000 -10000

SR 14000 48000 62000 48600 44000 45000 -1000

ER 10000 50000 60000 46500 35000 20000 +15000

NE 9000 3000 12000 10350 8200 3200 +5000

Total 71000 211000 282000 222150 201000 181200 0

Monsoon Peak


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Maximum Inter-Regional Transmission Requirement (2014-15)

Region Requirement Scenario

Northern 13500 Import Winter peak

Western 11000 Import Summer peak

Southern 4000 Import Winter/Summer peak

Eastern 25000 Export

(23000 MW- Own Gen. + 2000 from NER)

Winter peak

North-eastern 5000 export Monsoon peak

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Inter-Regional Transmission Capacity Planned (2014-15)

Region Requirement MW Planned MW

Northern 13500 import 19420 (ER to NR)

Western 11000 import 12760(ER to WR)

Southern 4000 import 3620(ER to SR)

Eastern 25000 export(23000 MW- Own Gen. + 2000 from NER)

33700(ER to NR/WR/SR)

NER 5000 export 2480 (NER to ER) +3000(NER to NR)

3000 MW of ER-NR with Siliguri terminal of 800kV HVDC

plus 7180 MW NR WRand 6880 MW WR SR

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Cumulative Capacity at end of period (MW)

22,800 MW to be added during the XIth Plan period.

• Additional inter-regional capacity of 21,800 MW to be added during 2012-15 (first three years of the XIIth Plan)

Transmission (Contd.. ) NATIONAL GRID – INTER-REGIONAL TRANSMISSION CAPACITY

By 10th Plan

By 11th Plan By 2014-15

ER-SR 3120 3620 3620

ER-NR 4220 11120 19420

ER-WR 1760 6460 12760

ER-NER 1240 2840 2840

NR-WR 2080 4180 7180

WR-SR 1680 2680 6880

NER/ER-NR/WR 0 6000 6000

Total 14100 37900 58700

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ULTRA MEGA POWER PROJECTS -- ISSUES

LOAs FOR 3 NOS. UMPPs ISSUED. ONE MORE PROJECT BEING PROCESSED

DURING XI PLAN PERIOD ANOTHER 5 MORE UMP PROJECTS ARE PROPOSED TO BE TAKEN UP

ALLOCATION OF POWER FROM EACH UMPP TO MORE THAN ONE REGION

ALL THE STATES IN A REGION HAVE NOT BEEN ALLOCATED POWER

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ULTRA MEGA POWER PROJECTS -- ISSUES

ISSUES REGARDING POOLING OF UMPP ATS WITH EXISTING REGIONAL POOL

SHARING OF TRANSMISSION CHARGES OF UMPP ATS TO RESOLVE THIS CEA HAS PROPOSED THE

FOLLOWING SOLUTION(a) IDENTIFY TRANSMISSION LINES EXCLUSIVELY REQUIRED FOR EVACUATION OF UMPP POWER

(b) IDETIFY TRANSMISSION REQUIREMENT FOR STRENTHENING OF REGIONAL GRID

(a) TO BE SHARED BY PROJECT BENIFICIARIES AND (b) TO BE POOLED WITH REGIONAL TRANSMISSION AND SHARED BY CONSTITUENTS

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Regional and State Sector Transmission System

Inter-regional and Intra-regional( inter-state )system Planned by CEA

Implementation by PGCIL and also by the Private Sector

Matching transmission system at 220kV, 132 kV, 66kV, 33kV and Distribution system in urban as well as rural areas required to planned and implemented by the States to ensure reach planned of electricity up to the final destination catering to the end consumers in the country.

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SYSTEM PROTECTION

Power systems operating in synchronism to be provided with defense measures such as - islanding schemes and automatic load shedding and special protection schemes (Talcher- Kolar HVDC Scheme)

Reliable protection so that grid incidents do not cause cascade tripping

Operational measures to ensure reliability at all times

Best practices to maintain high level of system availability

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Multi Circuit Lines High Capacity Lines Multi conductors

High temp designsAlloy ConductorsHigh SIL lines

Higher Voltages 765kV /1200kV AC600kV / 800kV HVDC

Compact substations GIS

Increasing transmission density FACTS/ SVC

Compressing construction period Satellite Imagery Standard DesignsModern construction techniques

TECHNOLOGY SOLUTIONS

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TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT High Capacity 6000 MW + 800kV HVDC System 765kV /1200kV AC Transmission System Upgradation / Up-rating of Transmission Lines Application of Series Compensation Flexible AC Transmission System (FACTS) High Temperature Endurance Conductor High Surge Impedance Loading Lines (HSIL) Airborne Laser terrain Mapping (ALTM) for detailed route

survey Conditional Monitoring Equipments Preventive Maintenance of Transformers using State-of-art

online equipments Test Facilities for 1200kV AC

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OPEN ACCESS

LONG TERM

SHORT TERM-BILATERAL

-POWER EXCHANGE

-UNSCHEDULED INTERCHANGE

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Open Access and Trading Transmission Capacity based on long-term commitments

Reliability/operational margins for Short-term OA

These margins generally provide 20-30% additional capacity with respect to committed transmission for long-term transaction (not as some % of generation capacity)

No planned addition transmission capacity for STOA

For generators seeking LTOA for lesser capacity, only limited transmission capacity would be provided

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Open Access and Trading Regulation for grid connectivity to merchant plants Grid strengthening for transmission needs of merchant

plants based on commitment of long-term transmission charges

Regulations for transmission open access for intermediate period say 3-5 yrs to facilitate “Case - 1” procurement by Utilities.

Allowing grid connectivity without LTOA would dissuade long-term commitments for transmission charges leading to retarded growth

Higher STOA charges for trading out of such capacities which have not tied-up Long-term Transmission Charges

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OPEN ACCESS IN TRANSMISSION

Market driven exchanges may influence pattern of power flow

Periodic review and strengthening

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Uncertainty in load growth Impact on Transmission Planning

Changes in Generation Programme Need of periodic review of PlanDe-licensing of Thermal Generation Delay in schedule of hydro projectsImplementation of Merchant Power PlantsNew IPPs getting developed

ROW CONSTRAINT Environmental – Forest land and Wild life

sanctuariesPopulated and Urban AreasLegal issues

Utilization of Hydro potential in Transmission Tariffthe North-east Chicken-neck

CHALLENGES IN POWER SYSTEM

PLANNING

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Transmission Tariff Issues

Can we continue with present tariff ? Should the tariff be on National basis ? Flat postage stamp or Locational tariff ? Distance and directional sensitive – Zonal Tariffs ? How should the short term charges be priced with respect to long-

term charges ? How the long term and short term transaction losses to be treated? Are the lower short-term charges hampering the transmission

development ?

CHALLENGES IN POWER SYSTEM PLANNING (Contd..)

v.ramakrishna member (power systems) central electricity authority

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