v.ramakrishna member (power systems) central electricity authority
DESCRIPTION
GROWTH OF POWER SYSTEM IN THE COUNTRY AND FUTURE PERSPECTIVE. by. V.RAMAKRISHNA MEMBER (POWER SYSTEMS) CENTRAL ELECTRICITY AUTHORITY. 28 th APRIL, 2008. Installed Generating Capacity in the Country (31 st March, 2008). INSTALLED CAPACITY : FUEL WISE. Total – 1,43,061 MW. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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V.RAMAKRISHNAMEMBER (POWER SYSTEMS)
CENTRAL ELECTRICITY AUTHORITY
GROWTH OF POWER SYSTEM IN THE COUNTRYGROWTH OF POWER SYSTEM IN THE COUNTRYANDAND
FUTURE PERSPECTIVEFUTURE PERSPECTIVE
by
28th APRIL, 2008
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11125, 8%4120, 3%1202, 1%
14656, 10%
35209, 25%
75002, 53%
Hydro Coal Gas Diesel Nuclear Wind/RES*
Installed Generating Capacity in the Country(31st March, 2008)
INSTALLED CAPACITY : FUEL WISE
Total – 1,43,061 MW
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State, 74615, 52%
Private, 20085, 14%
Central, 48361, 34%
INSTALLED CAPACITY : SECTOR WISE
Installed Generating Capacity in the Country (31st March, 2008)
Total – 1,43,061 MW
4
1,100
21,18019,119
16,422
21,401
4,520 4,579
10,202
2,250
14,226
I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X
Fresh Capacity addition
during Plan period
2,886 4,653 9,027 16,664 26,680 42,585 63,636 85,795 1,05,046 1,32,329
Cumulative installed capacity at the end of Plan
PLAN PERIOD
GENERATING CAPACITY(all figures in MW)
Sectoral Performance over Five Year Plan Periods
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Generation Performance
9.6
662.5517.4
395.9
245.4
32.9 66.7 102.5
16.9
156.8
I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X
Generation during last year
of the Plan period (in BU)
61.9 62.2 71.1 74.3 84.849.2 53.0 60.3 67.0 70.657.5 69.5 71.2 74.7 86.352.4 56.5 64.4 69.9 76.8
6.7 7.9 11.5 7.5 9.911.7 16.7 18.0 11.8 13.5
PLF (in %) during last year of Plan period : Central SectorState SectorPrivate SectorOverall
Supply shortages: (as % of demand during last year of resp. Plan period) Energy Shortage (%)Peak Deficit (%)
PLAN PERIOD
Per Capita Consumption of Electricity in India
176348
559 632
1,000
2500
613
1980-81 1990-91 2000-01 2004-05 2005-06 2011-12 2031-32
kWh/year
(Projected)
As per UN Methodology (Gross Electrical Energy Availability / Population)
Growth Pattern
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Demand and Capacity Requirement –Plan-wise up to Year 2032 (as per IEP Report corresponding to 8% GDP growth)
Year Energy Reqmt.
(BU)
Peak Demand
(MW)
Total Installed Capacity
(MW)
Coal Based Installed Capacity
(MW)
No. of Super Critical Units
660/ 800 MW
2006-07
(actual)
691 1,00,715 1,32,329 71,121 NIL/ NIL
2011-12
( 11th Plan)
1097 1,58,000 2,29,648 1,27,161 10/ 2
2012-17 (12th Plan)
1524 2,26,200 3,06,000 1,63,161 12/ 31
2017-22 (13th Plan)
2118 3,23,000 4,25,000 2,25,000 12/ 50
2022-27 (14th Plan)
2866 4,37,000 5,75,000 3,04,000 10/ 70
2027-32 (15th Plan)
3880 5,92,000 7,78,000 4,12,000 10/ 100
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Action Plan for 11th Plan Period
Objectives
Sustain annual growth rate of over 8% Power supply
• Quality• Reliability
Power availability • Access• Affordability
Commercial viability • Operating systems & procedures • Loss reduction
Major Action Areas
- Generation - Transmission- Distribution - Rural Electrification
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Demand and Capacity Requirement for 11th Plan(as per 17th EPS Report)
Year Energy Requirement
(BU)
Peak Demand
(MW)
Proposed Capacity Addition during 5
year Plan (MW)
Cumulative Average
Gowth Rate (CAGR)
2011-12 1038 1,52,000 78,778
( 11th Plan)
9.5%
2016-17 1470 2,18,200 82,200
(12th Plan)
7.4%
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58,771 MW
16,627 MW
HYDRO
THERMAL
NUCLEAR
74.60%
21.11%
4.29%3,380 MW
CAPACITY ADDITION PROPOSED FOR 11th PLAN : FUEL WISE
Total 78,778 MW
Additional capacity expected : Renewables – 13,500 MW
: Captive – 12,000 MW
Generation
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CAPACITY ADDITION PROPOSED FOR 12th PLAN : FUEL WISE
Generation
Total 82,200 MW
12000, 15% 30000, 36%
40200, 49% Hydro Thermal Nuclear
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STATUS OF CAPACITY ADDITION LIKELY DURING 11th PLAN (as on 31.03.08)
* Additional capacity expected : Renewables (13,500 MW), Captive (12,000MW)
(all figures in MW)
Generation (Contd..)
Type Commissioned Under construction for commissioning during 11th Plan
Orders to be placed by
March, 2008
Total
Hydro 2,423 13,204 1,000 16,627
Thermal 6,620 46,483 5,668 58,771
Nuclear 220 3,160 - 3,380
Total 9,263 62,847 6,668 78,778
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YEAR WISE CAPACITY ADDITION TARGETS DURING 11th PLAN (MW)
2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 TOTAL
Hydro 2,423 1,097 1,805 1,741 9,561 16,627
Thermal 6,620 9,304 13,919 15,453 13,465 58,771
Nuclear 220 660 2,000 500 0 3,380
TOTAL 9,263 11061 17,724 17,694 23,026 78,778
Generation (Contd..)
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Transmission System Development
EMERGING SCENARIO ULTRA MEGA POWER PROJECTS TECHNOLOGY DELOPMENT/SOLUTIONS OPEN ACCESS AND POWER TRADING CHALLENGES IN POWER SYSTEM PLANNING TRANSMISSION TARIFF ISSUES
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CHRONOLOGYPRIOR TO 1948 Isolated Systems around Urban and Industrial Areas
ELECTRICITY (SUPPLY) ACT,1948. Coordinated Development - creation of CEA. Extending Electricity to Semi-urban and Rural areas. State Grid Systems - SEBs.
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• Development of State Grid Systems during 50s and 60s
• Regional Grids Concept: 1964Consolidation 70s, 80s
• Towards National Grid Focus: 1998Programme 1998 – 2012
• Electricity Act 2003: Open access in transmission
Growth of Power System
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Regional systems Region specific objectives Power evacuation and supply to area load centers Reliability and open access margins
National system Harnessing ER/NER resources on all India basis Phased development of cross-regional transmission system Long term perspective to address ROW and Chicken Neck
Regional wise export/ import objectives Reliability and open access margins
Development ObjectiveDevelopment Objective
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ADEQUACY THE ABILITY OF THE ELECTRIC SYSTEMS TO SUPPLY
ELECTRICAL DEMAND ENERGY REQUIREMENTS AT ALL TIMES, TAKING INTO ACCOUNT SCHEDULED AND REASONABLY EXPECTED UNSCHEDULED OUTAGES OF SYSTEM ELEMENTS.
SECURITY THE ABILITY OF THE ELECTRIC SYSTEMS TO
WITHSTAND SUDDEN DISTURBANCES SUCH AS ELECTRIC SHORT CIRCUITS OR UNANTICIPATED LOSS OF SYSTEM ELEMENTS.
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Transmission Planning Objectives
• Adequate and reliable system to meet the transmission needs.
• Reliable dispersal of power to each area.
• Fit into long-term plan and amenable for phased development.
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Transmission Planning Objectives cont..
De-licensing of generation is likely to result in influencing pattern of power flows requiring frequent reassessment of adequacies/inadequacies in the transmission network and necessary system strengthening from time to time.
There is also risk of stranded assets in transmission on account of variation in generation growth with respect to that based on which transmission network was developed.
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Transmission Planning Objectives cont….
• Obtaining right of way for new transmission lines has become increasingly difficult. Therefore, there is a need to optimize the power transmission corridors. Use of extra/ultra high voltage and high capacity lines, multi circuit lines and increasing transmission capability of existing lines through use of re-conductoring using Aluminum – alloy conductors or series compensation and flexible alternating current transmission systems (FACTS) devices where optimal, are the possible solutions.
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Establishment of Regional Electricity Boards
Development of Inter-state lines through Centrally Sponsored Schemes/ Common generation projects
Regional Grid through Central Sector Transmission
REGIONAL GRIDS
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DEVELOPMENT OF INDIAN POWER SYSTEM
CONCEPT TILL 2002
Generation & transmission development on Regional self sufficiency.
Inter-regional lines for limited exchange of operational surpluses through asynchronous links.
Exchange in radial mode between ER - NR, WR - SR & ER - NR.
Surplus available not being fully utilized in other deficit regions as previous plans were not for bulk inter-regional transfer.
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DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY PERSPECTIVE
SUBSTANTIAL SAVINGS POSSIBLE WITH POWER DEVELOPMENT PLANNED ON COUNTRYWISE BASIS AND THE SYSTEM OPERATED ACCORDINGLY
SAVINGS ON ACCOUNT OF: DEMAND DIVERSITIES RESERVE SHARING OPTIMAL LOCATION OF GENERATION ENHANCED UTILISATION OF OPERATIONAL SURPLUSSES AND
MERIT ORDER GENERATION ON A WIDER SCALE.
TO ACHIEVE THE ABOVE A NATIONAL GRID IS REQUIRED TO BE DEVELOPED
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SPECIAL CHARACTERISTICS OF TRANSMISSION SYSTEM
MUST BE ADEQUATE AND RELIABLE TO MEET EVACUATION REQUIREMENT FOR EACH STATION SEPERATELY.
MUST PROVIDE RELIABLE DISPERSAL TO DISTRIBUTION NETWORK OF EACH AREA.
SHOULD FIT WELL INTO LONG TERM SYSTEM NEEDS
AMENABLE FOR STAGED DEVELOPMENT
OPTIMALLY UTILISE TRANSMISSION CORRIDORS
PLANNED TO MEET EXTREME CREDIBLE CONTINGENCIES
In case of inter regional lines this would mean increased surplus in normally surplus regions and simultaneously increased deficit in normally deficit region.
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Regional approach Peak demand, maximum hydro and off
peak conditions Maximum generation in a complex for
evacuation system
National approach Extreme dispatch scenario by
maximizing surplus in surplus region and deficit in deficit region
Combinations of surplus and deficit scenarios for different regions
Transmission Planning CriteriaTransmission Planning Criteria-- Dispatch schedules for planning -- Dispatch schedules for planning
studiesstudies
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Security Criteria
Trade-off of investments and risks
System should return to normal conditions after a single line to ground fault on a transmission line removed after 100ms
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The Landmark Events
1990 Generation of Electricity opened for Private Sector
1998 Electricity Regulatory Commission Act
1998 765kV transmission line (initially charged at 400kV)
2002 Synchronous inter-connection of ER and NER
2002 Concept of Development of All India National Power Grid
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The Landmark Events
2003 Electricity Act 2003 – Open access in Transmission
2003 Synchronization of WR with ER-NER system
2003 Inter-regional HVDC transmission system
2005-06 National Electricity Plan
2006 Synchronization of NR with ER-NER-WR
2007 765kV transmission line at 765kV operation
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RELIABILITY ISSUES AND GRID OPERATION
Planning Criteria :
Transmission matching with generation
Transmission capacity based on Regional Export/import
Evacuation schemes and System strengthening schemes
‘N-1’ contingency for mesh/loop system
‘N-2’ for large generation complex – >3000MW
‘N-2’ for large cities of above 2000MW load
‘N-1’ with no load shedding and no rescheduling
‘N-2’ could be with rescheduling but no load shedding
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Planning Criteria
Transmission capacity for transfer of full surplus in surplus region and to meet the deficit in deficit region considered in evolving National Grid.
The adequacy of the transmission system tested for different load generation scenarios corresponding to one or more of the following so as to test the scenario of maximum burden on the transmission system . Summer Peak Load; Summer Off-Peak Load; Winter Peak Load; Winter Off-Peak Load; Monsoon Peak Load; Monsoon Off-Peak Load.
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XI Plan Transmission PlanInter-regional Transmission Requirement
Winter Off Peak Winter Peak
Regions Availability DemandDeficit/ Surplus Availability Demand
Deficit/ Surplus
Northern 25098 31878 -6780 34770 45540 -10770
Western 44693 37219 7474 48544 53170 -4626
Southern 28802 26103 2699 34168 35426 -1258
Eastern 30035 11788 18247 32521 16840 15681
North-Eastern 2227 1862 365 3869 2660 1209
Total 130854 108850 22004 153871 153636 +235
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XI Plan Transmission PlanInter-regional Transmission Requirement
Monsoon Off Peak Monsoon Peak
Regions Availability DemandDeficit/ Surplus Availability Demand
Deficit/ Surplus
Northern 41435 31878 9557 43853 40986 2867
Western 44517 37219 7298 46228 47853 -1625
Southern 32070 26103 5967 34455 33561 894
Eastern 29755 11788 17967 30998 15156 15842
North-Eastern 5397 1862 3535 5807 2394 3413
Total 153173 108850 44323 161341 139950 21391
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XI Plan Transmission PlanInter-regional Transmission Requirement
Summer Off Peak Summer Peak
Regions Availability DemandDeficit/ Surplus Availability Demand
Deficit/ Surplus
Northern 36631 40986 -4355 40258 45540 -5282
Western 44486 37219 7267 47053 53170 -6117
Southern 30702 26103 4599 34279 37290 -3011
Eastern 29472 11788 17684 31336 16840 14496
North-Eastern 4279 1862 2417 5100 2660 2440
Total 145570 117958 27612 158026 155500 2526
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Maximum Inter-Regional Transmission Requirement – 2011-12
Region Requirement Scenario
Northern 10770 MW import Winter peak
Western 6117 MW import Summer peak
Southern 3011 MW import Summer peak
Eastern 18247 MW export Winter off-peak
North-eastern 3535 MW export Monsoon off-peak
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Inter-Regional transmission planned (2011-12)
Region Requirement MW Planned MW
Northern 10770 import 11500
Western 6117 import 9500
Southern 3011 import 3600
Eastern 18247 export 19350
NER 3535 export 5250
plus 7600 MW NR-WRand 2700 MW WR-SR
Plus 3000 MW of ER-NR with Siliguri terminal of 800kV HVDC
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Growth in Transmission System
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
132kV 120000 ckm
220kV 120000 ckm
400kV 82660 ckm
HVDC bi-pole capacity 5500MWHVDC back-to back 3000 MW
765kV lines 2550 ckm
1950 71 81 85 90 92 97 2002 2008
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TARGET FOR THE 11th PLAN PERIOD
Voltage Addition during the Plan Cumulative at end of the Plan
CKM MVA/ MW CKM MVA/ MW
HVDC 5,200 6,000 11,000 14,200
765 kV 5,400 51,000 7,130 53,000
400 kV 49,000 52,000 125,000 145,000
220 kV 35,000 73,000 150,000 230,000
Sector wise overall targets for addition during the Plan period : - Centre (Powergrid) 30,600 ckm / 92,000 MVA/ MW- State 45,000 ckm / 82,000 MVA/ MW- Private (including JV) 19,000 ckm / 8,000 MVA/ MW
94,600 ckm / 1,82,000 MVA/ MW
Transmission
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Region Hydro (I/C)
Thermal ( I/C)
Total (I/C)
Availability Dispatch
Demand Deficit(-)
Surplus(+)
NR 30000 45000 75000 47250 46500 60000 -13500
WR 8000 65000 73000 57650 56000 65000 -9000
SR 14000 48000 62000 46400 46000 50000 -4000
ER 10000 50000 60000 47500 47500 22500 25000
NE 9000 3000 12000 5250 7000 3500 1500
Total 71000 211000 282000 204050 201000 201000 0
Winter Peak
Inter-regional Transmission Requirement 2014-15
X Plan=130 GW, XI Plan +78 GW, XII Plan +82 GW
XII Plan End =290 GW. More Generation through LTOA
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Region Hydro (I/C)
Thermal ( I/C)
Total (I/C)
Availability Dispatch
Demand Deficit(-)
Surplus(+)
NR 30000 45000 75000 54000 49000 60000 -11000
WR 8000 65000 73000 56800 54000 65000 -11000
SR 14000 48000 62000 46800 46000 50000 -4000
ER 10000 50000 60000 46000 45000 22500 22500
NE 9000 3000 12000 78000 7000 3500 3500
Total 71000 211000 282000 211400 201000 201000 00
Summer Peak
Inter-regional Transmission Requirement 2014-15
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Region Hydro (I/C)
Thermal ( I/C)
Total (I/C)
Availability Dispatch
Demand Deficit(-)
Surplus(+)
NR 30000 45000 75000 60750 45000 54000 -9000
WR 8000 65000 73000 55950 49000 59000 -10000
SR 14000 48000 62000 48600 44000 45000 -1000
ER 10000 50000 60000 46500 35000 20000 +15000
NE 9000 3000 12000 10350 8200 3200 +5000
Total 71000 211000 282000 222150 201000 181200 0
Monsoon Peak
Inter-regional Transmission Requirement 2014-15
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Maximum Inter-Regional Transmission Requirement (2014-15)
Region Requirement Scenario
Northern 13500 Import Winter peak
Western 11000 Import Summer peak
Southern 4000 Import Winter/Summer peak
Eastern 25000 Export
(23000 MW- Own Gen. + 2000 from NER)
Winter peak
North-eastern 5000 export Monsoon peak
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Inter-Regional Transmission Capacity Planned (2014-15)
Region Requirement MW Planned MW
Northern 13500 import 19420 (ER to NR)
Western 11000 import 12760(ER to WR)
Southern 4000 import 3620(ER to SR)
Eastern 25000 export(23000 MW- Own Gen. + 2000 from NER)
33700(ER to NR/WR/SR)
NER 5000 export 2480 (NER to ER) +3000(NER to NR)
3000 MW of ER-NR with Siliguri terminal of 800kV HVDC
plus 7180 MW NR WRand 6880 MW WR SR
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Cumulative Capacity at end of period (MW)
22,800 MW to be added during the XIth Plan period.
• Additional inter-regional capacity of 21,800 MW to be added during 2012-15 (first three years of the XIIth Plan)
Transmission (Contd.. ) NATIONAL GRID – INTER-REGIONAL TRANSMISSION CAPACITY
By 10th Plan
By 11th Plan By 2014-15
ER-SR 3120 3620 3620
ER-NR 4220 11120 19420
ER-WR 1760 6460 12760
ER-NER 1240 2840 2840
NR-WR 2080 4180 7180
WR-SR 1680 2680 6880
NER/ER-NR/WR 0 6000 6000
Total 14100 37900 58700
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ULTRA MEGA POWER PROJECTS -- ISSUES
LOAs FOR 3 NOS. UMPPs ISSUED. ONE MORE PROJECT BEING PROCESSED
DURING XI PLAN PERIOD ANOTHER 5 MORE UMP PROJECTS ARE PROPOSED TO BE TAKEN UP
ALLOCATION OF POWER FROM EACH UMPP TO MORE THAN ONE REGION
ALL THE STATES IN A REGION HAVE NOT BEEN ALLOCATED POWER
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ULTRA MEGA POWER PROJECTS -- ISSUES
ISSUES REGARDING POOLING OF UMPP ATS WITH EXISTING REGIONAL POOL
SHARING OF TRANSMISSION CHARGES OF UMPP ATS TO RESOLVE THIS CEA HAS PROPOSED THE
FOLLOWING SOLUTION(a) IDENTIFY TRANSMISSION LINES EXCLUSIVELY REQUIRED FOR EVACUATION OF UMPP POWER
(b) IDETIFY TRANSMISSION REQUIREMENT FOR STRENTHENING OF REGIONAL GRID
(a) TO BE SHARED BY PROJECT BENIFICIARIES AND (b) TO BE POOLED WITH REGIONAL TRANSMISSION AND SHARED BY CONSTITUENTS
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Regional and State Sector Transmission System
Inter-regional and Intra-regional( inter-state )system Planned by CEA
Implementation by PGCIL and also by the Private Sector
Matching transmission system at 220kV, 132 kV, 66kV, 33kV and Distribution system in urban as well as rural areas required to planned and implemented by the States to ensure reach planned of electricity up to the final destination catering to the end consumers in the country.
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SYSTEM PROTECTION
Power systems operating in synchronism to be provided with defense measures such as - islanding schemes and automatic load shedding and special protection schemes (Talcher- Kolar HVDC Scheme)
Reliable protection so that grid incidents do not cause cascade tripping
Operational measures to ensure reliability at all times
Best practices to maintain high level of system availability
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Multi Circuit Lines High Capacity Lines Multi conductors
High temp designsAlloy ConductorsHigh SIL lines
Higher Voltages 765kV /1200kV AC600kV / 800kV HVDC
Compact substations GIS
Increasing transmission density FACTS/ SVC
Compressing construction period Satellite Imagery Standard DesignsModern construction techniques
TECHNOLOGY SOLUTIONS
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TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT High Capacity 6000 MW + 800kV HVDC System 765kV /1200kV AC Transmission System Upgradation / Up-rating of Transmission Lines Application of Series Compensation Flexible AC Transmission System (FACTS) High Temperature Endurance Conductor High Surge Impedance Loading Lines (HSIL) Airborne Laser terrain Mapping (ALTM) for detailed route
survey Conditional Monitoring Equipments Preventive Maintenance of Transformers using State-of-art
online equipments Test Facilities for 1200kV AC
51
OPEN ACCESS
LONG TERM
SHORT TERM-BILATERAL
-POWER EXCHANGE
-UNSCHEDULED INTERCHANGE
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Open Access and Trading Transmission Capacity based on long-term commitments
Reliability/operational margins for Short-term OA
These margins generally provide 20-30% additional capacity with respect to committed transmission for long-term transaction (not as some % of generation capacity)
No planned addition transmission capacity for STOA
For generators seeking LTOA for lesser capacity, only limited transmission capacity would be provided
53
Open Access and Trading Regulation for grid connectivity to merchant plants Grid strengthening for transmission needs of merchant
plants based on commitment of long-term transmission charges
Regulations for transmission open access for intermediate period say 3-5 yrs to facilitate “Case - 1” procurement by Utilities.
Allowing grid connectivity without LTOA would dissuade long-term commitments for transmission charges leading to retarded growth
Higher STOA charges for trading out of such capacities which have not tied-up Long-term Transmission Charges
54
OPEN ACCESS IN TRANSMISSION
Market driven exchanges may influence pattern of power flow
Periodic review and strengthening
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Uncertainty in load growth Impact on Transmission Planning
Changes in Generation Programme Need of periodic review of PlanDe-licensing of Thermal Generation Delay in schedule of hydro projectsImplementation of Merchant Power PlantsNew IPPs getting developed
ROW CONSTRAINT Environmental – Forest land and Wild life
sanctuariesPopulated and Urban AreasLegal issues
Utilization of Hydro potential in Transmission Tariffthe North-east Chicken-neck
CHALLENGES IN POWER SYSTEM
PLANNING
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Transmission Tariff Issues
Can we continue with present tariff ? Should the tariff be on National basis ? Flat postage stamp or Locational tariff ? Distance and directional sensitive – Zonal Tariffs ? How should the short term charges be priced with respect to long-
term charges ? How the long term and short term transaction losses to be treated? Are the lower short-term charges hampering the transmission
development ?
CHALLENGES IN POWER SYSTEM PLANNING (Contd..)
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