GENERAL

Official Visits:

% Tier one countries: President, Prime/Deputy Prime minister, Defense Minister, heads of the Army, Navy and Air Force, Trade/Finance Minister, Foreign Minister. Basically any of the geopolitical relevant ministries need to be considered for a rep concerning tier one countries. Countries such as China will send out trade/buying delegations that can be considered. Concerning countries that have had long running disputes such as Azerbaijan and Armenia or Cambodia and Thailand, lower lever visits can also be considered if there are being made as confidence building measures or preparations for higher level meetings.

% Tier two countries: Prime Minister, President, Defense Minister, Foreign Minister Trade/Finance Minister.

% Tier three countries: If a tier three head of state is visiting a tier 2 or teir one country it can be considered for a rep depending on the importance of relations and geopolitical importance of the countries involved.

  NATO Membership:

% Issues concerning NATO are important if they concern Former Soviet Union countries. Items concerning strategic shifts in NATO should be considered for a rep. For example if Georgia or Sweden states interest in applying for membership this would definitely be a rep. However if Italy mentions Portugal’s military doctrine and its synthesis into NATO air exercises, this would not be a rep.

  EU Memebership

% Any indication from the EU that Serbia, BiH, Macedonia, Albania or Montenegro are closer to membership. We don't want comments from random people, so for example a comment from the Portuguese foreign minister that he supports Macedonia's membership is not important. We want to rep anything Catherine Ashton has to say about it, Manuel Barroso, Herman Von Rompuy, Germans, French or the holder of the rotating EU presidency (currently Spain). On Macedonia, we also want to know what Greece is thinking, since they are the ones blocking it. 

 Earthquakes:

% Anything 7 or over on the Richter Scale is to be repped

  Natural Disasters:

% As a rule we don’t rep them unless there is the risk of or a scale of damage has occurred that will either alter a country’s economy or its ability to function as a secure and productive nation. Also to be taken in to consideration is if the affected country has a particular risk for social instability whether that be due to the culture of the country or the reaction to the calamity by the state. Body counts do not matter but they can be a basic measure as to whether social unrest, a break down in security or widespread dissatisfaction with the state will occur. These types of disasters are floods, tsunamis, volcano eruptions, snow/ice storms, hurricanes/typhoons/cyclones and similar occurrences.

   Man Made Disasters and Such:

% We pay attention to “un-natural” disasters with a focus on attacks such as terrorism, assassinations, espionage, VIPs and strategic assets. If a passenger craft whether it be an aircraft or ocean vessel crashes/explodes/sinks without immediate rational explanation (a rational explanation would be something like a midair collision or hitting a reef) the incident should be considered for repping. Explosions at large fuel storage points, depots and pipelines should be considered for repping, even if there were no suggestions of an attack simply for the fact that a supply of a strategic commodity has been affected. Some countries such as China, India, Bangladesh and so on have varying degrees of security issues including terrorism, religious extremism and secessionist violence where attacks may occur. These places also tend to experience regular explosions in kitchens and market places where gas is used for cooking. Sometimes these explosions are powerful enough to demolish whole buildings, in these

cases it will never be immediately certain that it was not an attack or criminal issue. These occurrences need to be considered for repping.

   

MILITARY  GUIDING PRINCPLES

% The military event is geopolitically significant% The military event represents a new capability or shift in the

military balance% The rep should be careful to attribute any reference to

nomenclature, specifications/capabilities and unit designations to the source announcing the event. Do not state military details as fact unless you have confirmed elsewhere and you are absolutely sure of it as fact or you have checked with Nate.

*If you aren't sure, check with Nate.    On Spark    Phone: 513.484.7763    email: nathan.hughes@stratfor.com   You do more damage by slipping in a military detail of which you are not positive about than good. MILITARY OPERATIONS Again, geopolitical significance should be the driving factor as a general rule. Operations on which we have a considerable focus (a war in Georgia, for example, or ongoing operations in

Afghanistan) warrant much closer monitoring and much higher volume of sitreps. Refer to event-specific guidance 

% Major new military operations (“Israel invades Lebanon”), obviously. If we're tracking a blow-by-blow military operation, you'll know, but definitely get the opening gambit in there. Otherwise, we're looking for strategic shifts and new offensives in ongoing operations.

 Points to cover (not all of this needs to be repped in any given situation, but it all is important tactical information that needs to be picked up by the monitors in order for us to evaluate things):

% unit designations and size% location, location, location. Grid, Nearby village, whatever

you can find to help pinpoint things -- and not just a border region several hundred miles long.

% military objective (i.e. drive out Taliban fighters) or training objective (i.e. improve command and control and coordination between two countries in humanitarian assistance operations)-      if this engagement was part of a larger campaign, include name of operation-      who initiated the engagement, what did they achieve?-      weapons, tactics involved in the engagement-      casualties, equipment captured or lost?-     was there a specific objective? what? was it achieved?

 Don't overdo it. We don't need every ship name in a naval exercise. But the name of an aircraft carrier involved might be a nice detail if it doesn't crowd the rep. Double check and be exceptionally careful with the unit name and designation. If it did not come directly out of the mouth of the relevant spokesman -- do not assume that the author of the

article got it right. Same with other details. Look back for the official press statement on the subject, or leave it out if you can't be sure.  MILITARY EXERCISES     

% Is the exercise at all setting a precedent – i.e. the largest Indian-U.S. joint naval exercise in history, the first Chinese-Russian naval exercise in history, etc.? If this is the justification, it is probably worth briefly mentioning that context.

  MILITARY MOVEMENTS:

% Military/troop movements in a country’s border regions can be of major significance, any sign of troops actually massing on or moving to a border should be considered for priority 1 status and even a red alert depending on the situation. If a country and its neighbour have a history of conflict, have been in recent major disagreements over issues of energy supply or have been accused of supporting insurgencies/have experienced a recent terrorist/insurgency strike within a country a red alert or priority 1 status should be considered.  Military exercises in border regions are also significant depending on the relations with the neighbour and the speed in which the exercise was called. If it is a yearly exercise it may only require repping but if it is an exercise that was decided on only a week prior to commencement a priority 1 status should be considered.

% Any major troop/hardware/capacity redistributions nationally or globally should also be considered for a rep.

  

 ARMS SALESMost arms transfers are not worthy of a sitrep. Some that are only achieve that significance because of who is selling to whom rather than the weapons sold themselves. Do not assume an arms sale is worthy of a sitrep. Consider:

% What is the geopolitical significance/context of the sale? A brief mention of that significance/context may be appropriate.

% Is the weapon system a significant new capability for the recipient state? A weapon system that marks a significant alteration of the military balance with a rival is a good example of rep worthy.

% Is this talk/rhetoric about a potential deal or is it more substantial and rep worthy?

 For example, a formal Russian deal to sell submarines to Venezuela will probably get a rep but a French sale of submarines to Chile almost certainly will not. This is because:

% Russia is geopolitically significant, Venezuela is momentarily geopolitically significant vis a vis the U.S. This is the case with neither France nor Chile.

% Venezuela's geographically proximity to the U.S. is much greater than Chile's. Venezuela's coast opens into the Caribbean and the Florida coast is within range of diesel submarine patrols, whereas Chile's coast is geographically isolated.

% The current geopolitical dynamic of both Russian and Venezuelan opposition to the U.S. helps make this kind of sale worthy of a rep.

  

 WEAPONS TESTSAgain, most weapons tests are not worthy of a sitrep.

% Is the test of a new class of strategic weapon in a definitive phase of development or is it simply a reliability test of an already deployed and operational system? Rep the former, save the latter for an INTSUM – if that.

% Is the test a show of force at a particularly tense stage of negotiations or geopolitical tension? If this is the significance that justifies a rep, the rep should include this detail.

 For example, the Indian test of an Agni-III ballistic missile is an important rep-worthy event because the system is in development and is a new longer-range capability. A U.S. test of a Minuteman III ballistic missile is not – this is a regular test done several times per year of an already well established system. It is important to be careful when stating what a weapon system is capable of or built for. Determining a weapon system's actual capabilities/specifications is not a task for a sitrep. Any discussion of a weapon system's capabilities/specifications taken from the source and included in the rep should be attributed to the spokesman announcing those capabilities/specifications.   REFERRING TO WEAPONS SYSTEMS CAPABILITIES/SPECIFICATIONS

% Only Nate gets to declare what a system is actually capable of. Otherwise, make sure that when a Russian general says his new missile can defeat any U.S. ballistic missile defense system that such a capability is explained as his claim not

a statement of fact.

 Ballistic missiles should fall into one of these categories. USE THIS TERMINOLOGY when referring to ballistic missiles: BALLISTIC MISSILE DESIGNATIONS:

% short range ballistic missile (SRBM) - under 540 nm (under 620 mi, under 1,000 km)

% medium range ballistic missile (MRBM) - 540-1,620 nm (620-1,864 mi, 1,000-3,000 km)

% intermediate range ballistic missile (IRBM) - 1,620-2,970 nm (1,864-3,418 mi, 3,000-5,500 km)

% intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) - over 2,970 nm (over 3,418 mi, over 5,500 km)

% submarine launched ballistic missile (SLBM) - any range

         

SECURITY AND COUNTER TERRORISM Terrorism/Attacks:

% Terrorist attacks are generally considered for repping whether they be planes flying in to buildings, pizza parlours blowing up in Tel Aviv or hotels going bang in Jakarta. However there are some perspectives that must be taken with attacks. These are scale, where they occur, the target of the attack, where they attack occurs and the frequency

of these attacks.

 Scale:

% A small pipe bomb detonating in Kashmir is not significant enough to rep. An attack must be of the scale that it creates significant fear, disrupts daily life and the ability of the state/society to operate and/or destroys critical infrastructure or symbolic targets. Loss of life is not always a useful guide, it needs to be considered whether the loss of life will create significant fear in a society (generally so that it will affect state decision making matrices) and/or disrupt the ability of a society to operate due to the threat of further attacks.

 Target:

% The target of an attack affects the repability of an attack. If a bomb in a garbage bin in Lahore kills a garbage man it is not significant. However if that same bomb kills a politician, ranking police or military or senior judiciary figure, for example it then becomes significant. The value of the target is an indication of significance. It the killing of a person is likely to affect the operability of a state apparatus or a strategic industry the attack is significant and to be considered for a rep.

 Where/Frequency:

% If a bomb detonates on a bus killing 3 people in Peshawar it is not overly significant. If a bomb on a bus kills three people in New York, Beijing, Sydney, Paris, etc. it is significant. Does violence in the affected area happen frequently and are these style of attacks frequent? Is the attack likely to

result in a response greater than a police investigation? Is the attack geopolitically significant? If the attack is only going to result in being recorded in a database such as a bus bombing in Kandahar it will generally not require repping. However if the attack happens in a location that is not normally attacked or has particular sensitivities enough to result in a response (military, policy, etc.) then the attack should be considered for repping.

  Communal Violence and Internecine Conflict:

% When considering repping items concerning a country that has experienced large scale violence and conflict the item should be met with an analytic approach. Somalia, Sudan, Yemen, Southern Philippines, Thailand, India, Pakistan and any number of African nations have experienced civil wars, communal violence and conflict for years. An item should only be repped if the status has altered. For example, if a town has been taken it must be strategically important or signal a change in status to be considered rep-worthy. If an aircraft has been downed it must be out of the ordinary or signal a new capacity in anti-air capabilities to be repped. If there is an uptick in ferocity of fighting it needs to be significant or signal a shift in tactics, strategy or possible outcome. If peace talks are taking place they must not be just another episode in a long succession of peace talks but require a particular reason as to why they might be successful to be repped. If an action or occurance is common in a conflicted area it is more than likely not rep-worth 

 

% Always keep in mind in breaking events that details are subject to change. Citing source and getting information out

quickly is the key. But also run your bullshit detector and help the WOs and analysts raise eyebrows at certain pieces of information. Always send it in, but add a comment indicating that we need to look more closely at it.Similarly, remember that things like plane crashes do happen. Though we are always monitoring for terrorist strikes, every plane and especially helicopter that falls out of the sky does not do so because of a terrorist act. We need to remain impartial and look for technical indications that there was foul play or that there was a prominent personality on board (the latter does not necessitate the former, though). Most of this will only come up in investigations and be wary of statements by officials that are unqualified to provide judgment based on either rank or technical expertise (i.e. a local tribesman insisting that his compatriots shot down an american UAV with AKs doesn't really tell us anything whatsoever). 

 

%  We are also interested in any incident involving MANPADS and militant or insurgent groups. Attacks, recovered weapons, arms shipment seizures, law enforcement arrests for guys trying to get MANPADS, etc.  

  Country Specific Guidance 

CAUCUSES:

% For the Northern Caucasus: People die everyday in the Northern Caucasus, but any attacks where more than half a dozen die is significant. Suicide & female attackers are common.

% Any major military or police operations (with high casualty or arrest rate) need to be repped. Any medium-large scale coordinated attack by militants (most attacks are 3 or 4 guys exploding shit, so more than that). Any attacks on government buildings, Russian military bases, schools (like Beslan).

% Any attacks heading out of the Muslim republics and into Russia proper are important, though attacks on Stavropol are still frequent. Once you head north-west on the Black Sea, Russia holds a TON of critical transportation and energy infrastructure. Any attacks on these are huge.

% Attacks on the Russian-trains are important, though the further north the attack, the more important.

% It is notable also if any foreign fighters are caught in the Caucasus, especially Azerbaijani, Uzbek, Georgian, Saudi, Yemeni, Pakistani... you get the drift.

% There is a ton of old and potentially new energy infrastructure in the Caucasus. Pipelines from Azerbaijan & the Georgian secessionist regions into Russia are important. All the regional stuff was bombed out during the wars, but Russia (especially Gazprom) has started to rebuild. Any attacks on the new facilities under construction is notable

% In the next few years we need to watch for any shift in violence heading west.... Sochi Olympics are 4 years away and it is only 30 miles between Sochi and the militant regions. 

    INDIA: There are four main trends of violence in India: 

% Islamist militancy - mainly Pakistan-based jihadist groups,

but also includes indigenous groups like SIMI and Indian Mujahideen. Most activity takes place in Kashmir, but we care most about attacks that take place beyond Kashmir in the heart of India in places like Maharashtra, Delhi, etc.

% Naxalite/Maoist insurgency - takes place mainly along the eastern forest belt - Chattisgarh, Orissa, Jharkhand and parts of Andhra Pradesh, and  Maharashtra

% Northeast insurgent violence - lots of different tribal and separatist groups, main one is ULFA in Assam

% Communal/political violence - Sikhs in Punjab, Telangana activists, Gorkhas, etc.

 What's reppable: 

% If you're at the usual attacks in Kashmir, NE, or Naxalite belt, rep any attacks that reveal a notable shift in scale or tactics. You can usually tell which attacks are large by the size of the blast, targets and the number killed to determine whether it's rep-worthy. In the NE in particular, we've been watching to see if some of those groups like ULFA will pick up jihadist tactics like suicide bombings. Otherwise, make sure to report attacks in OS so we can maintain situation awareness.

%  Most Naxalite attacks don't need to be repped unless they're large-scale or reveal a new tactic or area of operations. If you see them shift to urban areas outside of the forest belt or shifting to targets other than security forces, patrols, transportation, police bases, etc. then pls flag that. Also important to note if the Naxalites are engaging in any serious political activity, ie. providing services to the people in terms of governance.

% We need to keep a close watch for Islamist militant attacks in India beyond Kashmir. Following the Pune attack from this weekend, we need to keep watch for any similar incidents of explosives left unattended. that will reveal a

lot about capabilities and target sets.

 

% communal/poltiical violence is worth repping if it's taking place on a serious scale in any of of India's main economic/metro hubs, ie. Mumbai, Delhi, Bangalore, Hyderabad, Ahmedebad, etc. This is important for client and business interest, esp if you see roads blocked, stores attacked, etc.

 IRAQ:

Main Trends:

% Sunni/Kurd tensions along the trigger line between Kurdish and Sunni populations

% Sunni/Shia tensions% AQ/foreign jihadists attempting to re-ignite sectarian conflict% Iran/Iraq border issues

 What's reppable:

% There is a certain level of violence in Iraq that is just 'noise'. We don't need to be repping every explosion or fatality. But significant attacks along the trigger line or ones that are large and have the potential to spark ethnosectarian violence definitely warrant a rep.

% Violence on pretty much any of Iraq's borders warrants close examination for any potential wider significance. A border incident between Iran and Iraq warrants a rep, as would a major potential flare up of Kurdish tensions with Turkey.

% evidence of multiple, coordinated attacks (in single or multiple

cities)% direct attacks against US BASES

 AFGHANISTAN:

Main Trends:

% U.S./Taliban fight% AQ attacks% lines of supply% attacks on new governments set up in places like Helmand

 What's reppable:

% As the U.S. sets up shop in new communities like Marjah, we need to closely monitor the attacks and intimidation tactics that the new Afghan bureaucrats and security forces are subjected to. Any major attacks striking at these groups warrants a rep, especially in a community like Marjah where governance is attempting to be set up and reconstituted.

% Major new tactics, be it more violence or intimidation oriented or new tactics against ISAF troops warrants a rep.

% The Taliban is also looking to establish better relations with the people per Mullah Omar's guidance released earlier this year. Any suicide bombing and any increase in retributional violence against civilians should be noted and considered for a rep if it is a new development or part of a larger trend heading in the direction of more Taliban violence against civilians.

% evidence of multiple, coordinated attacks (in single or multiple cities)

% direct attacks against US/NATO BASES - not just patrols but actual bases

 *we will continue to have key focus areas like Marjah where the developing situation warrants closer monitoring and more reps. Will adjust as necessary. 

PAKISTAN:

Main Trends:

% Pakistani Taliban attacks on Pakistani gov't/civilian targets% lines of supply (U.S./NATO)

 What's reppable:

% attacks OUTSIDE of FATA and NWFP (ie, Islamabad, Lahore, Karachi)

% large, coordinated, serial attacks in FATA and NWFP% any UAV strikes OUTSIDE of North or South Waziristan% Pakistani military operations in FATA outside of S. Waziristan% Attacks on fuel and supply trucks especially on the northern

route through Peshawar are common, but rep any attacks of significant size (ballpark 10 trucks), note all others. Be quicker to rep attacks on the southern supply line through Chaman. These are not unheard of, but are rarer and thus more noteworthy.

 *in any country, significant attacks against western foreigners and their usual accommodations, etc. is also repworthy. 

MEXICO: 

Deaths/Arrests

% 15 deaths or more in single event% 50 or more deaths in 24 hour period% Mayors% Governors% Federal Officials - Senators% Cabinet Members (Secretaries)% High Ranking Federal Law Enforcement% Military Officers - Major or higher

*For political/military officials if they're removed or step down. 

Cartel LeadersJoaquin "El Chapo" Guzman LoeraHeriberto Lazcano LazcanoIsmael "El Mayo" Zambada GarciaIgnacio "El Nacho" Coronel VillarealArturo Beltran-LeyvaMiguel Angel Trevino MoralesJorge Eduardo Costilla SanchezVicente "El Viceroy" Carrillo FuentesNazario Moreno GonzalezTeodoro "El Teo" Garcia Simental,Fernando "El Ingeniero" Sanchez Arellano 

Troop Deployments

% Any military or Federal LE deployment greater than 1000

 COLUMBIA:

% The kidnap of or assassination of political figures - mostly federal level politicians(including governors, they get kidnapped occassionally)

% Explosions and casualty counts in Bogota% Major terrorist attacks in other cities - any IED in urban area

of colombia, or linked to FARC urban front% Major offensives by the Colombian military against the

FARC, ELN or other militant organization% Clashes between military and militants that result in 10 or

more casualties

Drug Seizures

% 1 ton of cocaine or more% 2 tons of marijuana% half ton of heroin

 Any arms shipments to or from the FARC, ELN or other militant group - MANPADS are a big one we are looking for  

 THAILAND:

% Both Thailand has had communal violence for decades it is not new and very common in the south. Bangkok and Chiang Mai also experiences political violence from time to time.

% In Thailand a motorbike bomb in a market, drive by killings or targeted killings are common in the southern regions and do not require a rep. Only when strategic target such as a police station or army installation is targeted by a VBIED

or explosive of equivalent size or creates deaths of 8+ should a rep be considered -- in addition a political provocation or an attack in Bangkok, Hua Hin, Phuket or other large cities or tourist areas deserves consideration.

% During times of heightened political tension in Bangkok and Chinag Mai, WO should consult with the East Asia AOR for specific guidance 

PHILIPPINES:

% The southern Philippines has a number of militant groups and militias (NPA, MNLF, MILF, ASG, Ilaga) operating in the area against the military and sometimes against each other. A rep should only be considered when Attacks in or close to Manilla occur, attacks specifically directed at US troops, a large military offensive or an offensive against the military or town is launched. Ambushes and explosive attacks that kill less than ten local soldiers are not rep-worthy. Deliberate targeting of US troops is rep-worthy. Only kidnappings of HVTs and foreign nationals is considered rep-worthy.

% Philippines also experiences a certain level of violence during election periods, 2010 is shaping up to be one of the most violent in a long time. Any massacre, which is more than 7 people killed that are not guerrillas or insurgents, more along the lines of candidates, family of candidates, media and supporters should be repped. Any individual candidate that is assassinated and any attacks taking place in Manila. Further guidance can be gained through consultation with the East Asia AOR. However, be warned that Matthew Gertken is a closet transvestite.

   NIGERIA: 

% Acts of sabotage on oil infrastructure in the Niger Delta (especially if it is claimed by MEND)

% Battles/fights of any kind between Niger Delta militants and members of the Joint Task Force (JTF), which is the special Nigerian military unit deployed to keep a lid on unrest in the Delta

% Any signs of infighting within MEND% infighting within the ruling PDP party regarding the 2011

elections (though on this would be better to send to Africa as well, because we don't want to be repping some bullshit tribal chieftain assassinating a rival bullshit tribal chieftain just because they both happen to be card carrying members of the PDP)

   SOMALIA: 

% We are interested in any suicide attacks on AU peacekeepers and members of the Transitional Federal Government (TFG)

% Any signs of fighting between Ethiopian troops and insurgents along the border (do not rep a news story that says "Ethiopian troops cross the border" without consulting an analyst because that happens all the time and is usually a non-event)

% Battles involving various actors in Somalia. This is very much a judgment call, because this happens all the time. But if it happens overnight, please send to Africa list and an analyst will make the call in the morning:

    - TFG troops    - AU troops    - Ahlu Sunnah Waljamaah militia

    - Hizbul Islam (various factions)    - al Shabaab* also rep any reports of foreign support for any of these actors 

% violence spilling over into Ethiopia or Kenya

 Somali piracy:

% when hijacked ships are not the usual fishing boat or small container ship (ie - when they get an oil tanker or other ship carrying energy supplies)

% if pirates do physical harm to (or kill) hostages% ships are released for ransom of more than $2 million

    KENYA: Most reps these days for Kenya will be linked to its issues with Somalia (and more specifically, the threat from al Shabaab). So on that front, please rep:

%     any statements from Kenya that it is moving troops to the border

% any statements from Kenya that it is moving troops into Somalia (that would be really big)

% threats by al Shabaab to attack Kenya% big protests in Nairobi that are Christian-Muslim linked (as

there will inevitably be some sort of link to AS)% and just in general, better to overreact to news of al Shabaab

plots being hatched in Kenya, or any sort of communal violence involving the jihadist group

 We also must remember what went down during Kenya's 2008 elections, when tribal violence broke out between President Mwai Kibaki's Kikuyu tribe and Prime Minister Raila Odinga's Luo. Tensions clearly were never fully ratcheted down following the conflict, but while it is relatively quiet now, please be vigilant if there is an instance when, say, 10 or more people are killed in a Kikuyu-Luo tribal dispute.

Also rep any big protests in Nairobi, western Kenya (mainly Kisumu), or Mombasa 

GREECE:

% watching for attacks in Athens and Thesaloniki that target high level political, economic and security interests.

 

HOTELS:

% we are monitoring attacks against hotels all around the world that cater to international clientele.  We are also interested in attempts and foiled plots

  ATTACKS ON WESTERNERS ABROAD:

% lethal, intentional attacks specifically against westerners is reppable in every non-western country.

  

   

ECONOMY AND FINANCE  Each country is going to have its own unique economic situation. China has peculiarities with its banking system in regards to NPLs, the US is currently struggling more than most to relieve itself of the effects of the economic crisis, Russia is about to undergo a significant economic restructure that is also linked to internal power structures, etc. etc. These issues will always remain fluid and require constant attention for details that require repping. This document is a living document that will be periodically altered to reflect these issues and also net analysis related issues. Watch Officers must keep themselves informed, refer to this document and use their analytical abilities when viewing these issues when consider for repping.  National Economic Figures:A certain amount of analysis is required for economics but there are some exact rules that we can base ourselves off.·      All tier 1 countries will have their monthly inflation/deflation figures, quarterly, half yearly and yearly figures repped·      For GDP reversals (recessions to expansion and vice versa) we rep the top 25 economies. As of 2008 these countries are the US, Japan, China, Germany, France, UK, Italy Russia, Spain, Brazil, Canada, India, Mexico, Australia, Korea, Netherlands, Turkey, Poland, Indonesia, Belgium, Switzerland, Sweden, Saudi Arabia, Norway, Austria and Taiwan.  However a certain amount of analytical practice should also be exercised when dealing with GDP movements. If we have been recently following a country that does not appear on the list repping GDP movements may be warranted..       Top 25 economies also have rate rise/drops repped

·      Weekly US unemployment figures are to be repped As well as the 4 week moving average.·      For tier two countries reps should be considered when countries are in dire economic positions or have had an analytic focus on the site for any particular reason.   Stock Market Movements:As a rule we never rep stock market fluctuations unless the whole market of a country drops more than ……(5%?) in one day. We also never rep individual companies unless they are integral to a country’s economy and the figures are preceded by “largest ever”. These situations will be very few and far between. International Trade:Announcements on the start of talks, signing/ratification of or significant problems occur with free trade agreements are to be repped when any tier one or tier two countries are involved. If two tier three countries are involved a rep is only to be considered if the issue is geopolitically significant and that may be quite rare. Trade Sanctions and Tariffs/Duties/Protectionism:Whenever a tier one or tier two country applies or is the target of trade sanctions it is to be repped. Geopolitical significance is to be the main guide when concerning protectionist measures such as duties, trade sanctions and subsidies for strategic industries. The hard and fast guide here is whether the measures will affect relations between the countries or the domestic position of the targeted country, is the targeted country likely to respond with retaliatory measures, which won’t always be economic? These questions need to be considered when judging the importance of protectionist trade measures.  

  

ENERGY

 

New energy discoveries or capacities coming on line:

% oil finds or new capacity: reserves of 500 million barrels or bigger

% production capacity of 250 000 BPD

 

Natural gas finds or new capacity:

% reserves of 100 billion cubic meters% production capacity of 1 billion cubic meters per year.

 

Electricity:

% 1 gigawatt generation capacity.

 

Common conversions

% 1 metric ton of crude = 7.3 barrels% 1 metric cubic meter of natural gas = 35.3 cubic feet% 1 metric ton of LNG = 1415 cubic meters of natural gas% 1 bbl of oil equivalent = 170 cubic meters of natural gas

 Any finds or new capacity equal to or above the stated figures is to be repped any smaller than that, don't bother. Vague pronouncements from companies that want their stocks to go up are not worth a rep. If you suspect you've found an exception to this rule, ask Peter.

  

Major Shifts in Energy Supplies:

% The most important region is Russia and the connections with the Central Asian States and Europe. Any shift in where supply is originating and where it is being forwarded is to be repped. Medium and above shifts in China’s energy contracts and supplies are also repped no matter where in the world they are. If China wins a contract for extraction of refining in the Middle East, we rep.

% For nearly all projects we only rep when a) they secure financing, b) they begin or suspend construction, c) they finish construction or d) they begin operations. This holds for fields, pipelines and power plants alike. This holds for all states.

--

Chris FarnhamWatch Officer/Beijing Correspondent , STRATFORChina Mobile: (86) 1581 1579142Email: chris.farnham@stratfor.comwww.stratfor.com