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Vehicle emissions of light duty vehicles:carbon, diesels and outlook
Ricardo F Martinez-BotasMechanical EngineeringImperial College London
ContentsProgression in vehicle emissionsVehicle emissions test programme
VW resultsNEDC in DynoRDE & Conformity FactorsNEDC in Track
Emissions gapNOxCO2
Energy performance of other future vehicles
Progression in Vehicle Emissions
Department for Environment Food & Rural Affairs
UK National emissions of air pollutants
UK Department for Transport Defeat Device Investigation 7
Vehicle Emissions Test ProgrammeOctober 2015 – April 2016
UK Department for Transport Defeat Device Investigation 9
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/vehicle-emissions-testing-programme-conclusions
Objectives
10
Revelations in September 2015 that VW Group used software to distort emissions tests
Secretary of State informed Parliament of UK’s Vehicle Emissions Test Programme on 10 November 2015, to:Establish whether the use of strategies to defeat emissions tests goes wider than the
VW Group Gather much-needed evidence to restore public confidence and improve our
understanding of the real world emissions performance of vehicles
Official - Sensitive
How vehicles selected
11
Produced list of 100 top selling diesels (based on study of buying preferences 2010-2015)
Aimed to capture 75% of sales of top 70 vehicles, representing >50% of all diesels on UK roads
All major manufacturers
Engine sharing effectively increases the size of our sample
Even split of Euro 5 and Euro 6
Snapshot in time of a single example of each model’s NOx performance
Official - Sensitive
Methodology – set up
12
Vehicles Sourced from car hire fleets
Unmodified and no defects
<30,000 miles
Typical winter grade diesel
Tests Lab: Full lab-grade analysers (plus PEMS to confirm calibration)
Track and road: Portable Emissions Measurement Systems (PEMS)
Official - Sensitive
Vehicles Sourced from car hire fleets
Unmodified and no defects
<30,000 miles
Typical winter grade diesel
Comparison of NOx emissions on NEDC tests showing vehicle which does not appear to vary emissions behaviour
14
Official - Sensitive
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
0
50
100
150
200
250
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200
Spee
d (k
m/h
)
Emis
sion
s (m
g/s)
Time (s)
L-NEDC (Hot) L-NEDC Reverse Speed
Comparison of NOx emissions on NEDC tests showing impact of VW Group cycle recognition software
15
Official - Sensitive
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
0
50
100
150
200
250
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200
Spee
d (k
m/h
)
Emis
sion
s (m
g/s)
Time (s)
L-NEDC (Hot) L-NEDC Reverse Speed
Methodology – tests
17
Laboratory1. Official NEDC test with cold engine at 20-30°C ambient
2. Official NEDC test with fully warmed up engine (repeated)
3. Reversed NEDC test with fully warmed up engine
On roadApproximation of RDE test (pending confirmation of final requirements) – 1.5 hours on public roads including urban, rural and motorway
Official - Sensitive
RDE Testing
Undertaken in public roads near VCA.
1.5 hours of continuous driving.
PEMS installed.
Route included the prescribed:UrbanRuralMotorway
Real driving NOx emissions - Euro 5 vehicles
19
Official - Sensitive
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
Citr
oen
C4
Ford
Mon
deo
Hon
da C
RV
Hyu
ndai
i30
Hyu
ndai
iX35
Hyu
ndai
San
ta F
e
Kia
Spor
tage
Land
Rov
er F
reel
ande
r
Mer
cede
s E2
50
Nis
san
Qas
hqai
1.5
Nis
san
Qas
hqai
1.6
Peug
eot 2
08
Ran
ge R
over
Spo
rt
Ran
ge R
over
Spo
rt
Skod
a O
ctav
ia
Vaux
hall
Astra
Vaux
hall
Cor
sa
Vaux
hall
Insi
gnia
Volv
o V4
0
NO
x Em
issi
ons
(mg/
km)
Real driving NOx emissions - Euro 6 vehicles
20
Official - Sensitive
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
Audi
A3
BMW
320
d
BMW
X5
Ford
Foc
us
Ford
Mon
deo
Hon
da C
RV
Hyu
ndai
i30
Jagu
ar X
E
Kia
Spor
tage
Maz
da 6
Mer
cede
s A1
80
Min
i Cou
ntry
man
Peug
eot 3
008
Ren
ault
Meg
ane
Skod
a O
ctav
ia
Toyo
ta A
vens
is
Vaux
hall
Insi
gnia
Vaux
hall
Mok
ka
VW G
olf
NO
x Em
issi
ons
(mg/
km)
Real driving NOx emissions - Euro 5 & 6 vehicles
21
Official - Sensitive
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
Citr
oen
C4
Ford
Mon
deo
Hon
da C
RV
Hyu
ndai
i30
Hyu
ndai
iX35
Hyu
ndai
San
ta F
eKi
a Sp
orta
geLa
nd R
over
…M
erce
des
E250
Nis
san
Qas
hqai
1.5
Nis
san
Qas
hqai
1.6
Peug
eot 2
08R
ange
Rov
er S
port
Ran
ge R
over
Spo
rtSk
oda
Oct
avia
Vaux
hall
Astra
Vaux
hall
Cor
saVa
uxha
ll In
sign
iaVo
lvo
V40
NO
x Em
issi
ons
(mg/
km)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
Audi
A3
BMW
320
dBM
W X
5Fo
rd F
ocus
Ford
Mon
deo
Hon
da C
RV
Hyu
ndai
i30
Jagu
ar X
EKi
a Sp
orta
geM
azda
6M
erce
des…
Min
i…Pe
ugeo
t 300
8R
enau
lt…Sk
oda…
Toyo
ta…
Vaux
hall…
Vaux
hall…
VW G
olf
NO
x Em
issi
ons
(mg/
km)
Temperature warning
Tests on the road where performed in the winter months
Variability of results
Just what was intended as it was trying to capture a real behaviour
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16HyundaiCitroen
FordHonda
HyundaiHyundai
KiaLand Rover
MercedesNissanNissan
PeugeotRange Rover SportRange Rover Sport
SkodaVauxhallVauxhallVauxhall
VolvoAudiBMWBMWFordFord
HondaHyundai
JaguarKia
MazdaMercedes
MiniPeugeotRenaultSkodaToyota
VauxhallVauxhall
VW
RDE ambient temperature
Degrees C
Conformity Factors
Conformity Factor:
𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶 = 𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁 𝑜𝑜𝑜𝑜 𝑅𝑅𝑜𝑜𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁 𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅
Only two vehicles achieved less than a conformity factor less than 2.1(Mini Countryman & VW Golf)
Average CF=6.2 for the Euro 6
0.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.08.09.0
10.011.012.013.014.015.0
Audi
BMW
BMW
Ford
Ford
Hond
aHy
unda
iJa
guar Kia
Maz
daM
erce
des
Min
iPe
ugeo
tRe
naul
tSk
oda
Toyo
taVa
uxha
llVa
uxha
llVW
Conformity Factors for EURO6
Methodology – tests
24
Laboratory1. Official NEDC test with cold engine at 20-30°C ambient
2. Official NEDC test with fully warmed up engine (repeated)
3. Reversed NEDC test with fully warmed up engine
On roadApproximation of RDE test (pending confirmation of final requirements) – 1.5 hours on public roads including urban, rural and motorway
TrackReplicate official NEDC test plus laboratory variations (as above) plus a further NEDC test with fully warmed up engine but driving speed increased by 10%
Official - Sensitive
The NEDC cycle
NEDC TRACK AT MIRA
Track test results
28 Official - Sensitive
Dyno vs Track: why such a big difference?
What affects the difference between the two “seemingly identical” test?Aerodynamics: settings of the dyno,
commonly know as the coast down values.
Flexibility: choosing the most favourable vehicle configuration.
Test temperature: particularly in relation to EGR regulation regime.
Weight: difference between vehicles.Cornering and track effects.Emission equipment discrepancies
What relative Importance*
*for illustration only
Observations
30
Observable cycle recognition strategy on Skoda
No evidence other manufacturers have acted in the same way as VW Group
Very large difference between laboratory and track/road results
Emission controls are often significantly temperature dependent – but manufacturers say this change with ambient temperature is necessary “to protect the engine from damage”.
Temperature dependent strategies via the control of EGR are a legal exemption from the defeat device prohibition.
Incoming WLTP and RDE testing will contribute to reduce the gap but monitoring is of the essence.
Official - Sensitive
What is the magnitude of the emissions gap?
Discussed it in terms of the divergence between the regulated type approval and the performance.
From the Emissions Testing Programme
From the carbon perspective
Divergence between Road and Regulated
𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷 =𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁 𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅
𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁 𝑅𝑅𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝐷𝐷𝑅𝑅
*Some vehicles had more than one entry in the data set, see the Emissions Testing Vehicle Programme
Dive
rgen
ce
Dive
rgen
ce
Average* Average*
1.03.05.07.09.0
11.013.015.0
Euro 6
1.03.05.07.09.0
11.013.015.0
Euro 5
Divergence between the regulated type approval and the performance.
Divergence between Road and NEDC Dyno results
1
6
11
16
21
26
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200
Euro 5
𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷
=𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅
𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝑅𝑅
𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝑅𝑅 𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁𝐷𝐷𝐶𝐶 𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁 (𝑚𝑚𝐷𝐷/𝑘𝑘𝑚𝑚)
Euro 6 Type approvalAverage
𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷 =𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁 𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁 𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝐷𝑅𝑅
Divergence between the Dyno testing performance and the road
Emissions gap: CO2How far has the divergence grown?
(c) 2014 International Council on Clean Transportation
Emissions gap: CO2How far has the divergence grown?
(c) 2014 International Council on Clean Transportation
(c) 2014 International Council on Clean Transportation
(c) 2014 International Council on Clean Transportation
2013
2001
2013
2001
2013
20??
2013
20??
Outlook
Energy and CO2 footprint of different vehiclesa real world analysis
Energy per Km in real conditions
Future Car Challenge: Brighton to London
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
kWh/
km
EV E-REV/PHEV HEV ICE
Average: 0.24 kWh/km
How is this energy requirement delivered?
Downsize and boost
KERS
Improvedcombustion
Turbine MechanicalThermo Electrics
Well to wheel CO2
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
gCO
2e/k
m Average: 99 gCO2e/km (well-to-wheel)
Future Car Challenge: Brighton to London
EV E-REV/PHEV HEV ICE
Adaptation:Would it be possible to consider a platform that adapts?Would it be possible to overcome the limits of calibration?Would it be possible to target vehicle development where it may be best?
It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent that survives.It is the one most adaptable to change.
Passenger car tailpipe CO2 trajectories
Diesel ICE minimum
Hybrid vehicle minimum
Thank you
49 Official - Sensitive