variation of water quality in three contrasting coastal systems of … · 2011-08-31 · nta...

Regional analysis on the decadal

variation of water quality in three

contrasting coastal systems of Ishikawa

coast, Japan

Julius Ibukun Agboola, PhDPostdoctoral Fellow

United Nations University Institute of Advanced Studies (UNU IAS), Japan

Presentation to EMECS 9 Conference,

Baltimore, USA

Wednesday, 31st August 2011


Baltimore, USA


Socio-Ecological Systems Variation and

Environmental Change Impact on a

Subarctic Coastal Zone on the Sea of

Japan: Trends and Drivers

An ongoing research study @ the UNU IAS

Operating Unit Ishikawa/ Kanazawa, Japan

:

Preamble..

Concept: Socio-Ecological Systems (MARINE)

Interaction between humans and the bio-physical subsystems

Humans

Cultural

Management

Economic

Socio-political

Marine

Physical

Chemical

Biological

Socio - Ecological The IPCC 4th AR identifies the

need to make social-ecological

systems more resilient by

building "adaptive capacity"

Inte

r-co

nn

ecte

d &

Inte

ractive

Satoumi has been defined as coastal areas with high productivity

and biodiversity enhanced through human management.


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Oligotrophic

Coastal

System

Changes

Understanding the effects of these changes on phytoplankton biomass and productivity, and the linkages of the controlling factors is paramount to understanding long-term changes in marine ecosystems and the impacts of human activities.

Environmental Gradients

Physical Chemical Biological

Time Space

Coastal systems

Preamble..


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Ishikawa’s Ocean Coastline

Coordinates: 36°34′N 136°39′E

Has a general NE-SW orientation

~581 km alongshore stretch


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http://toolserver.org/~geohack/geohack.php?pagename=Kanazawa,_Ishikawa&params=36_34_N_136_39_E_type:city(457831)_region:JP





Tsushima warm water current

4- Tsushima Warm Water

current from the south

8- Rieman(Liman) Cold

Water current from the north

Ric

h m

ari

ne f

ish

sp

ecie

s fr

om

co

ld

no

rth

an

d w

arm

so

uth


Baltimore, USA


Source: Wikimedia Common

Problems

Natural and Anthropogenic Factors

① Land-based sources of pollution

② Oil spills and coastal alterations

③ Land reclamation

④ Excessive groundwater extractions

⑤ Serious and rapid erosion

It is expected that with differences in land use and human impact

along the coast, coastal water quality change at this highly

contrasting coastal systems will differ on spatial and temporal scale.


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GOAL and Objectives

Understanding coastal water quality trends and the

coupled human-environmental drivers: Towards

sustainable coasts.

① Document specific changes for appropriate management actions.

② Identify areas vulnerable to natural and anthropogenic forcing.

③ Improved knowledge on coastal ecosystem dynamics.


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Place-based research addressing socio-ecological systems

associated with specific seascape or coastal region

Ecological baselines: How has Ishikawa’s Ocean

coastline changed over the years?

Research Question and

MethodologyPreamble


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Data Sources and Analysis

Water Quality Monitoring Data: 1984 - 2009 ( Hydrogen ion concentration-pH; Dissolved Oxygen-DO; Chemical Oxygen Demand-

COD; Total Nitrogen – T-N; Total Phosphorus-T-P)

Environment Unit, Ishikawa Prefectural Office, Japan

Japan Meteorological Agency

Climatic Data: 1930 - 2010 (Rainfall and Temperature)

Ishikawa Prefecture Statistical Data

Socio-Economic Data: 1930 - 2010 (Population, Fish Catches, Management Units)

A.

Questionnaires, Interviews and Historical ReviewsB.


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^^̂

^̂^̂^^

^^̂̂^^̂^^̂^

#####

# #"

"

"

"

"

"

# NNA

" NTA

^ KNA

Ishikawa Prefecture

0 20 4010Kilometers

±

Coastal Compartments: Characterization

Contrasting physiographic, topographic and

geomorphologic features….

Differences in land use and human impacts along

the coast

Enable better analyses of spatial and temporal

trends and drivers

Twenty three (23) designated stations sampled: @ 0-1 m depth

< 5 Km from Shore

Kanazawa Area-KNA Noto Area-NTA Nanao Area-NNA

Sandy beach shore Rocky/Cliff shore

Sandy /Rocky

enclosed shore

High ocean waves and tides


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Results- Climatic Variables

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

Mean

an

nu

al

rain

fall

(m

m)

KNA

NTA

NNA

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

181925

1930

1935

1940

1945

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

Mean

an

nu

al

tem

pera

ture

(˚C

)

KNA

NTA

NNA

Highly significant (P < 0.0001)

temporal and spatial variation

^^̂

^̂^̂^^

^^̂̂^^̂^^̂^

#####

# #"

"

"

"

"

"

Temperature increased by ~ 2.2 – 3.5 ˚C

between 1930 and 2010

Highly significant (P < 0.0001)

temporal and spatial variation

Northern Noto

50 years: 1.5 – 3.0 ˚C on Sea of Japan


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0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009

Ch

em

ica

l O

xyg

en

De

ma

nd

(C

OD

) m

g/L

Year

KNA

NTA

NNA

Water Quality Spatial and Temporal Trends

Decreased ~20% (KNA); ~12% (NNA)

Increased ~25% (NTA)

NNA

KNA

NTA

Urban migration to KNA

Human perturbation from tourism,

agricultural and fishing activities

(NTA).


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7.5

7.6

7.7

7.8

7.9

8.0

8.1

8.2

8.3

8.4

8.5

1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009

Hyd

rog

en

io

n c

on

ce

ntr

ati

on

(p

H)

Year

KNA

NTA

NNA


Temporally: ~ 0.23 units drop

in pH values in last 3 decades

Spatially: 0.13 – 0.20 units

along the coast

NNA

KNA

NTA

(r = - 0.502; P = 0.001; n = 191)

Profound implications for

physiological processes in

marine organisms

Oceanic calcifying organisms

pH


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0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009

Dis

so

lve

d O

xyg

en

(D

O)

mg

/L

Year

KNA

NTA

NNA


NNA

KNA

NTA

Across three decades

(r = 0.548; P = 0.001; n = 191)

Significant Increase

DO


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Water Quality Nutrients Relationship @KNA and NNA

NNA

KNA

NTA

y = 0.1078x + 0.0023R² = 0.0829

0.00 0.04 0.08 0.12 0.16 0.20 0.24 0.28 0.32 0.36 0.40 0.44 0.48

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6

To

tal P

ho

sp

ha

te

Total Nitrogen

NP

y = 0.0468x + 0.0335R² = 0.249

0.00

0.04

0.08

0.12

0.16

0.20

0.24

0.28

0.32

0.36

0.40

0.44

0.48

To

tal P

ho

sp

ha

te

NP

KNA

NNA

N:P =16:1, optimal

algal growth ratio

(Redfield et al.

1963).

(mg

/L

)

Redfield Ratio line (N:P = 16:1)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009

An

nu

al

N/P

Rati

o

NNA

KNA


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Vulnerable coastal areas

KNA: where there was high COD and nutrients

(T-N and T-P) concentrations is the main

vulnerable area of the Ishikawa coast.

NNA

KNA

NTA

NTA: refuse abandonment on the coast by

tourist has been identified as one of the

drivers of change in the coastal water quality.

From the Water Quality Point of View

NNA : coastal compartment may be particularly

vulnerable to eutrophication due to often

restricted water exchange with the adjacent

ocean.Presentation to EMECS 9 Conference,

Baltimore, USA


Discussion

DO pH COD Year Area

DO 1

pH -0.086 1

COD 0.066 0.359** 1

Year 0.548** -0.502** -0.026 1

Area 0.107 0.012 -0.249** -0.016 1

Temp. T-N T-P Year Area

Temp. 1

T-N -0.172 1

T-P 0.055 0.467** 1

Year -0.057 -0.096 -0.024 1

Area 0.105 -0.832** -0.386 ** 0.017 1

Correlation Matrix: Water Quality Spatial and Temporal Pattern

** Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed)

NNA

KNA

NTA


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Trends and Drivers of Change

Anthropogenic Drivers

① Physical/Structural- reclaimed land, ports and harbor,

tripods and walls.

② Cultural- merging of towns and villages resulting in loss or proliferation

of local cultures, alienation of humans from sea, changing lifestyles

③ Ecological- biodiversity loss and water quality along the coastline

④ Socio-economic- Ports and Harbour for trade, fishing industries,

tourism, agriculture

⑤ Demographic- depopulation problem, decline in fishermen,

fisheries management bodies.


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Drivers of Change……..Natural Drivers

① Coastal Erosion/flooding

② Sea Level Rise

③ Climate Change- Temperature Change

④ Surge Storm

⑤ Ageing Population

⑥ Salt Water Intrusion- Rice Farmlands

NNA

KNA

NTA


Baltimore, USA


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1978 1984 1993 1997

River mouth

Artifitial

Semi-natural

Natural

Coastline Change: Impacts and Threats

Salt Intrusion

Rice Farmland


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Water Quality/Pollution Trends- MOE

Policy Response

0

2

4

6

8

10KNA

NTA

NNA

JapanEQS

COD

DO

pH

NNA

KNA

NTA

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

Nu

mb

er

of

co

nfi

rme

d c

as

es Total Oil Others (including red tides)

Rate is still low in inland seas - 74.5 % Source: Japan Coast Guard

Achievement of Environmental Quality Standards

Declined by ~ 82%

MOE, Satoumi Guidelines


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Policy ResponseNNA

KNA

NTA

Low High

Spatial Variation

Moderate

Tem

po

ral

Vari

ati

on

Lo

wM

od

era

teH

igh

DO

COD

pH

T-N

Pop.

Temp

T-P

Bio.

Mitigation

StrategiesNutrient

reduction

Coastal

zoning


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Deploying the SWOT AnalysisTo Assist in Identifying Strategic Direction for Coastal Management Practices

Strengths Environmental Monitoring Data

Rich Biodiversity Potentials

Available Environmental Rules

Presence of Skillful Environmental Experts

Weaknesses Increasing Human Impacts

Dominant/Strong “Bottom-Up” Approach

Declining Fisheries Production

Declining Management

Waning Coastal Cultural Practices

Opportunities Tourism Attraction Potentials

Possibility of Enhancing and reviewing

environmental regulations and supervision

University, Research, Training Centres and

International Cooperations

Space Technology for Efficient Monitoring

Threats Cheap Foreign Seafood

Persistent Coastal Erosion

Incremental Pollution due to Flood River

Climate Change

Alienation of Humans from the Sea

Inte

rnal

Ex

tern

al


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Community Involvement

NNA

KNA

NTA

Spirit of Volunteerism

In the wave of enormous

quantity of refuse on the

coast especially along

Shioya to Sogogi coast at

NTA, community

involvement in coastal

clean-up was launched

and has since been

sustained.


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Concluding Remarks….. NNA

KNA

NTA

Reuters News Service, March 28, 2001

"It is possible that the Sea of Japan is one of the first

expanses of water affected by global warming, if that

is the case, then we very much fear that eventually the

world's major oceans will also be affected,"

-Professor Yoon Jong-HwaResearch and Institute for Applied Mechanics (RIAM)

CREAMS project, Fukuoka.

Scientists, fishermen fear Sea of Japan slowly dying


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Recommendations

① Understanding the important issues and collaborating with

other disciplines will be essential …….in marine social-

ecological systems.

② Setting stricter water quality standards in collaboration with

industry, stakeholders groups and coastal community

resource users.

③ Continuous monitoring of coastal developments and activities

- targeted and effective adaptation strategy.

④ Ishikawa coastal planning/zoning to accommodate livelihood

and economic changes to changing biodiversity and fishing

regimes, sea-level rise and erosion.

.


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Acknowledgement

① United Nations University-Institute of Advanced

Studies (UNU-IAS)

② Director, Interns and Staff @UNU-IAS Operating

Unit Ishikawa Kanazawa (UNU-IAS OUIK)

③ Ishikawa Prefectural Government

④ Environment Unit, Ishikawa Prefectural Office,

Japan


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Thank you!

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variation of water quality in three contrasting coastal systems of … · 2011-08-31 · nta...

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