variables and relationships understanding catastrophe causes, consequences and coordination

Variables and RelationshipsVariables and Relationships

Understanding Catastrophe Understanding Catastrophe Causes, Consequences and Causes, Consequences and

CoordinationCoordination

CatastrophesCatastrophes

• Take place when hazards interact with Take place when hazards interact with vulnerabilityvulnerability

• A hazard is an agent that may cause A hazard is an agent that may cause human harmhuman harm

• Examples include natural, technological Examples include natural, technological and man-made hazardsand man-made hazards

HazardsHazards

• Can be impressively severeCan be impressively severe– Arizona meteor craterArizona meteor crater– Great Sumatra earthquakeGreat Sumatra earthquake– China earthquakeChina earthquake– Hurricane KatrinaHurricane Katrina– 1918-1919 Spanish Flu1918-1919 Spanish Flu– BhopalBhopal– 9/119/11– Future threatsFuture threats

Rethinking HazardsRethinking Hazards

• We have very little control over hazardsWe have very little control over hazards

• Focusing on hazards downplays the Focusing on hazards downplays the human elementhuman element

• Scholars suggest we reconsider the Scholars suggest we reconsider the “naturalness” of disasters“naturalness” of disasters

• We need to concentrate more on human We need to concentrate more on human activities that exacerbate disastersactivities that exacerbate disasters

The Role of PeopleThe Role of People

• Environmental DegradationEnvironmental Degradation– Tropical diseases may spreadTropical diseases may spread– Desertification may occurDesertification may occur– Sea levels may riseSea levels may rise– Abrupt ice age may resultAbrupt ice age may result– Storms may increase in frequency and Storms may increase in frequency and

intensityintensity

The Role of People (cont.)The Role of People (cont.)

• Population GrowthPopulation Growth– May encourage people to move to hazard-May encourage people to move to hazard-

prone areasprone areas– May force people to live in densely populated May force people to live in densely populated

areasareas


• Resource DepletionResource Depletion– Watersheds and forests may be lostWatersheds and forests may be lost– Wetlands are in jeopardyWetlands are in jeopardy– Water is becoming scarceWater is becoming scarce– Food security is in questionFood security is in question– Petroleum based economics may collapsePetroleum based economics may collapse


• Spread of DiseasesSpread of Diseases– Antibiotics may result in mutationsAntibiotics may result in mutations– Transportation may spread pathogensTransportation may spread pathogens


• Changes in warfareChanges in warfare– Terrorists continue to threaten and attackTerrorists continue to threaten and attack– They target civiliansThey target civilians– Weapons have evolvedWeapons have evolved

VulnerabilityVulnerability

• Is the dependent variable in catastrophesIs the dependent variable in catastrophes

• Refers to proneness and limited Refers to proneness and limited capabilitiescapabilities

• Has two schools of thought: social Has two schools of thought: social vulnerability and holistic vulnerabilityvulnerability and holistic vulnerability

manela1

schools --> schools of thought.

Social VulnerabilitySocial Vulnerability

• Social relationships (political and Social relationships (political and economic) are to blame for disasterseconomic) are to blame for disasters

• Law, employment, classes, industry, Law, employment, classes, industry, education, and networks have an impacteducation, and networks have an impact

• The vulnerable include the poor, The vulnerable include the poor, minorities, women, children, the elderly, minorities, women, children, the elderly, the disabled, prisoners, etc.the disabled, prisoners, etc.

Holistic VulnerabilityHolistic Vulnerability

• Accepts premise of social vulnerability schoolAccepts premise of social vulnerability school• Recognizes other causes: choice of location, Recognizes other causes: choice of location,

engineering, degradation, warning systems, engineering, degradation, warning systems, operational mistakes, evacuation decisions, operational mistakes, evacuation decisions, planning, EOC management, apathy, planning, EOC management, apathy, urbanization, diet/exercise, technology, urbanization, diet/exercise, technology, religious beliefs, education, coordination and religious beliefs, education, coordination and other factors have an impactother factors have an impact

Group ProjectGroup Project

• Divide into groups (of 5 people each)Divide into groups (of 5 people each)

• Answer the question “what are other Answer the question “what are other potential causes of vulnerability and potential causes of vulnerability and catastrophe?”catastrophe?”

• Invite a student from each group to reportInvite a student from each group to report

Variable InteractionVariable Interaction

• The equation H+V=C is much too simpleThe equation H+V=C is much too simple

• Some events are not suddenSome events are not sudden

• A single hazard may trigger other hazards A single hazard may trigger other hazards and interact in dynamic waysand interact in dynamic ways

• ExamplesExamples

Catastrophes are ComplicatedCatastrophes are Complicated

• Mileti’s work on the physical, social and Mileti’s work on the physical, social and built environmentsbuilt environments

• The East Bay Hills FireThe East Bay Hills Fire

A Model of CatastrophesA Model of Catastrophes

• External and internal hazardsExternal and internal hazards

• Interaction with vulnerabilityInteraction with vulnerability

• Production of disastersProduction of disasters

• Disasters result in increased vulnerabilityDisasters result in increased vulnerability

• Model includes physical and social Model includes physical and social environments as well as liabilities and environments as well as liabilities and capabilitiescapabilities

Your Model?Your Model?

• Develop your own model of catastrophesDevelop your own model of catastrophes

• Draw your modelDraw your model

• Discuss it in 2-3 pages and explain its Discuss it in 2-3 pages and explain its central featurescentral features

Catastrophes and SocietyCatastrophes and Society

• Are non-routine social problemsAre non-routine social problems

• They are unusualThey are unusual

• They create new and unforeseen They create new and unforeseen challengeschallenges

• ExamplesExamples

ImpactImpact

• Medical care becomes problematicMedical care becomes problematic

• Sheltering is difficultSheltering is difficult

• Public information is nearly impossiblePublic information is nearly impossible

• Clean up and debris removal is almost Clean up and debris removal is almost insurmountableinsurmountable

• Rebuilding is a lengthy processRebuilding is a lengthy process

• Outside involvement is requiredOutside involvement is required

Power Point PresentationPower Point Presentation

• Select one catastropheSelect one catastrophe

• Identify causesIdentify causes

• Discuss primary, secondary and tertiary Discuss primary, secondary and tertiary consequencesconsequences

• Should last no more than 10 minutesShould last no more than 10 minutes

Intervention PointsIntervention Points

• MitigationMitigation– Serious and thorough risk assessmentsSerious and thorough risk assessments– Environmental protectionEnvironmental protection– Construction standardsConstruction standards– RegulationsRegulations– Health status and medical capacityHealth status and medical capacity– Terrorism preventionTerrorism prevention

Intervention Points (cont.)Intervention Points (cont.)

• PreparednessPreparedness– All pre-disaster functions (community All pre-disaster functions (community

education, training, grant management, education, training, grant management, exercises)exercises)

– All post-disaster functions (particularly All post-disaster functions (particularly evacuation, sheltering, communications and evacuation, sheltering, communications and resource management)resource management)


• ResponseResponse– Vulnerable populationsVulnerable populations– Damage and impact assessmentsDamage and impact assessments– Flexible deployment of rescue personnelFlexible deployment of rescue personnel– Inter-state and international mutual aid Inter-state and international mutual aid

compactscompacts– CoordinationCoordination


• RecoveryRecovery– Well-crafted plansWell-crafted plans– Debris managementDebris management– Disaster assistance programsDisaster assistance programs– RebuildingRebuilding

Writing AssignmentWriting Assignment

• 8-10 page paper8-10 page paper

• Addressing a single intervention point in Addressing a single intervention point in detaildetail

• Focusing on catastrophesFocusing on catastrophes

• Including lessons learnedIncluding lessons learned

• Illustrating difference to disastersIllustrating difference to disasters

• Must provide concrete recommendationsMust provide concrete recommendations

Coordination ModelsCoordination Models

• Bureaucratic ModelBureaucratic Model– CentralizedCentralized– Top downTop down– RigidRigid– Self-serving individualsSelf-serving individuals

Coordination Models (cont.)Coordination Models (cont.)

• Problem Solving ModelProblem Solving Model– DecentralizedDecentralized– Bottom-upBottom-up– FlexibleFlexible– Altruistic individualsAltruistic individuals

Strengths and ImplicationsStrengths and Implications

• The Bureaucratic ModelThe Bureaucratic Model

• The Problem Solving ModelThe Problem Solving Model

• The need for inclusion and integrationThe need for inclusion and integration

Class ActivityClass Activity

• Guest speakersGuest speakers– Fire fighterFire fighter– Emergency managerEmergency manager

• Questions about coordination modelsQuestions about coordination models

ConclusionConclusion

• Catastrophes result from hazards and Catastrophes result from hazards and vulnerabilityvulnerability

• Many variables are involved and in Many variables are involved and in complicated wayscomplicated ways

• Impacts of catastrophes are significantImpacts of catastrophes are significant

• Special measures are requiredSpecial measures are required

• Two models can help us manage Two models can help us manage catastrophescatastrophes

variables and relationships understanding catastrophe causes, consequences and coordination

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