us and florida construction outlook 2018-2019 · us macroeconomic overview negatives: –...

Dodge Data & Analytics

US and Florida Construction Outlook

2018-2019

November 6, 2018

Steve Jones

Senior Director, Industry Insights Research


Presenter

Stephen Jones

BA: Johns Hopkins University; MBA: Wharton

19 years in Architecture/Engineering

▪Principal and Board of Directors of major A/E firm Burt Hill (now Stantec)

4 years in Construction Technology

▪Vice President, Primavera Systems (now Oracle)

15 years with Dodge Data & Analytics (formerly McGraw-Hill Construction)

▪Senior Director, Industry Insights Research

▪Focus on how economic, technology and project delivery trends are

impacting the global construction industry

Dodge Global NetworkLeading source of data, forecast and analysis

about global construction

SweetsLeading source of information about

building products

Industry Insights Research: 50+ reports free at:

construction.com/toolkit/reports

TECHNOLOGY/INNOVATION

Measuring BIM

BIM for ContractorsInformation Mobility

BIM for Owners

SUSTAINABILITY

Green Homes Green Schools

World Green Trends Design for Health

PRACTICES/PROCESSES

Managing Uncertainty

Lean Safety

Delivery Systems

Presenter

Stephen Jones

Co-Author SMPS textbook

Today’s Agenda

– Quick Macro Outlook

– US/FL Housing Outlook

– US/FL Nonresidential Building Outlook

– Emerging Trends That Will Impact the Future of AEC

Amazon Fulfillment Center (Lake Nona)Orlando, FL $132 milGround breaking: Oct. 2017

US Macroeconomic OverviewConstruction is cyclical

7.5years

>7years

9years

20years

?

US Macroeconomic OverviewPositives:

– Lower business taxes boost corporate profits

– Healthy job growth despite low unemployment rate (tightening job mkt)

– Rising business investment (nonres structures +14.2% in Q1-18)

– Corporate profits up 4.4% in 2017

– Rising consumer confidence

– Boost from tax reform/rollback in bank regulation

– Improving global growth

GDP growth to improve in 2018, but will then slow in 2019-2020

% Chg

2017 +2.2%

2018 (F) +3.0%

2019 (F) +2.1%

2020 (F) +0.9%

2021 (F) +1.0%

2022 (F) +2.6%

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

US Macroeconomic OverviewNegatives:

– Tightening job market/labor shortages increasing

– Inflation picking up steam; construction materials prices on the rise

– Federal Reserve is raising interest rates

– Concerns about international trade and tariffs

– Uncertain/changing regulatory environment

GDP growth to improve in 2018, but will then slow in 2019-2020

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

% Chg

2017 +2.2%

2018 (F) +3.0%

2019 (F) +2.1%

2020 (F) +0.9%

2021 (F) +1.0%

2022 (F) +2.6%

U.S. and Florida Construction Outlook

Seminole Hard Rock Hotel & CasinoHollywood, FL$875 million

Ground Breaking: June 2017

US Total Construction Starts

Construction starts are reaching their peak for this cycle

Source: Dodge Data & Analytics

Total combines

Residential,

Nonresidential, &

Nonbuilding starts

3% -2%

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Total U.S. Construction Starts

Billions of Dollars

US Total Construction Starts – Big Picture



US Construction Outlook

Billions of Dollars

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Total Construction 689.3 735.2 779.9 806.9 794.4

14% 7% 6% 3% -2%

Nonresidential Bldg 228.7 256.6 283.6 298.5 294.2

2% 12% 11% 5% -1%

Residential Bldg 273.9 297.3 306.9 322.9 310.1

17% 9% 3% 5% -4%

Nonbuilding 186.7 181.3 189.4 185.4 190.1

27% -3% 4% -2% 3%

FL Total Construction Starts

Construction starts peaking in Florida as well


Total combines

Residential,

Nonresidential, &

Nonbuilding starts

4%-8%

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Total Florida Construction Starts

Billions of Dollars

FL Total Construction Starts – Big Picture



Florida Construction Outlook

in Billions of Dollars

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Total Construction 51.6 56.5 60.5 63.0 58.2

29% 10% 7% 4% -8%


41% 7% 27% 1% -8%

Residential Bldg 28.8 32.5 32.1 37.1 32.9

20% 13% -1% 16% -11%

Nonbuilding 10.5 10.9 11.7 8.9 9.8

42% 4% 8% -24% 9%

Today’s Agenda





US Single Family Housing StartsSingle family housing never came close to pre-recession (bubble) peak, so there’s more room to grow. When it comes, downturn will be (generally) mild.

➢Mortgage rates remain low, but are rising

➢Home sales softer, but volatile

➢ Starts remain historically low – more room for growth?

➢ Lower taxes to offset effects of SALT/MID caps except in selected counties around the nation

6% 0%

0

50

100

150

200

250

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Total U.S. Single Family Starts

Billions of Dollars

Source: Dodge Data & AnalyticsState and Local TaxesMortgage Interest Deduction

FL Single Family Housing StartsSingle family housing never came close to pre-recession (bubble) peak, so there’s more room to grow. When it comes, downturn will be (generally) mild.


➢Caps on the deductibility of state and local taxes (part of the new tax cut legislation) to negatively impact large parts of southern Florida

14%-8%

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Total Florida Single Family Housing Starts

Billions of Dollars

Single Family Housing Starts

Large pockets of FL will be negatively affected by SALT* deduction cap

Source: Internal Revenue Service, U.S. Census Bureau, Dodge Data & Analytics

Red counties indicate average SALT

deduction > $10,000

*State and

Local Taxes

Single Family Housing StartsFewer FL counties affected by cap on mortgage interest deduction (MID)

Source: Internal Revenue Service, FFIEC, HMDA

Most At-Risk Counties

Marin CA

San Mateo CA

Pitkin CO

San Miguel CO

Dukes MA

Nantucket MA

Summit UT

Teton WY

US Multifamily Housing Starts

Multifamily downturn will be more mild than last, but more pronounced than downturn in single family housing


➢ Large amount of new supply has come on the market

➢Rental markets remain tight

➢Demographics are supportive

➢ Large, mixed use buildings providing support

3%

-15%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Total U.S. Multifamily Housing Starts

Billions of Dollars

FL Multifamily Housing Starts

Stronger multifamily expansion means steeper downturn coming up


22%

-22%

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Total Florida Multifamily Housing Starts

Billions of Dollars

➢ Florida market has recovered remarkably from housing bubble

➢ Florida (esp. Miami) continues to build lots of new apartments and condos

US Multifamily Housing StartsMultifamily vacancy rates are starting to inch upward

Source: CB Richard Ellis Econometric Advisors

2018Q1 = 5.0%

2009 Cyclical High = 7.1%

Percent of Available Space

US Multifamily Housing StartsHousing affordability continues to favor rental market

Source: National Association of Realtors

The Housing Affordability Index measures whether or not the typical family can qualify for a mortgage loan on a typical home.

More Affordable

Less Affordable

US Multifamily Housing Starts

Homeownership among Millennials remains low, but may begin to rise

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Millennials

Gen X

Younger Baby Boomers

FL Multifamily Housing Starts

Miami remains top market for apartment starts, but was down sharply in 2017


Dodge Data & AnalyticsTop Florida Metros for Apartment Construction StartsMillions of Dollars

Ranking Metro Area 2016 2017 % Chg

1 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Miami Beach, FL 5,447 2,988 -45%

2 Orlando, FL 1,196 1,433 20%

3 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL 1,264 890 -30%

4 Jacksonville, FL 301 402 34%

5 Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL 210 298 42%

6 Tallahassee, FL 78 263 236%

7 Sarasota-Bradenton-Venice, FL 363 237 -35%

8 Lakeland, FL 137 154 13%

9 Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL 106 119 12%

10 Naples-Marco Island, FL 208 113 -46%

Today’s Agenda





Orlando International Airport South Terminal COrlando, FL$1.8 billion

Ground Breaking: Feb 2017

US Nonresidential Building Starts

Dollar value has exceeded previous peak, but square footage has not


Nonresidential

combines

commercial,

industrial, and

institutional building

starts

5% -1%

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Total U.S. Nonresidential Bldg Starts

Billions of Dollars

US Nonresidential Building Starts



Billions of Dollars

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019


2% 12% 11% 5% -1%

Commercial Bldg 93.3 114.3 115.7 120.0 116.3

11% 23% 1% 4% -3%

Institutional Bldg 110.1 121.9 142.4 147.8 149.0

5% 11% 17% 4% 1%

Manufacturing Bldg 25.3 20.3 25.5 30.7 28.9

-29% -20% 26% 20% -6%


FL Nonresidential Building Starts

Stronger recovery in Florida means somewhat sharper dip


1%-8%

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Total Florida Nonresidential Bldg Starts

Billions of Dollars

FL Nonresidential Building Starts



in Billions of Dollars

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019


41% 7% 27% 1% -8%

Commercial Bldg 6.1 6.7 8.7 9.4 8.2

27% 10% 30% 8% -12%

Institutional Bldg 6.1 6.0 7.8 6.9 7.1

64% -2% 29% -12% 3%

Manufacturing Bldg 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.7 0.3

-57% 420% -52% 198% -53%


US Commercial Building Starts

Commercial construction has made mixed progress


Commercial combines

stores, offices,

warehouses, hotels, and

auto/garage sector

4% -3%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Total U.S. Commercial Bldg Starts

Billions of Dollars

US Commercial Building Starts



Billions of Dollars

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Retail Stores 20.4 21.0 20.0 19.4 19.6

12% 3% -5% -3% 1%

Warehouses 15.3 19.8 23.0 23.9 22.1

25% 30% 16% 4% -7%

Offices 13.6 17.3 16.8 17.7 16.1

18% 28% -3% 5% -9%

Hotels 31.4 40.8 41.7 44.2 44.7

4% 30% 2% 6% 1%

Auto/Garages 12.6 15.3 14.3 14.8 13.8

6% 21% -6% 3% -6%


FL Commercial Building Starts

Commercial construction has reached its peak in Florida


8%

-12%

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Total Florida Commercial Bldg Starts

Billions of Dollars

FL Commercial Building Starts




in Mllions of Dollars

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Retail Stores 1,518 1,660 2,085 1,789 1,926

25% 9% 26% -14% 8%

Warehouses 1,081 1,561 1,874 2,071 1,847

75% 44% 20% 10% -11%

Offices 685 1,032 1,274 1,392 1,479

-29% 51% 23% 9% 6%

Hotels 974 1,062 1,977 2,333 1,380

3% 9% 86% 18% -41%

Auto/Garages 1,816 1,348 1,463 1,772 1,559

78% -26% 8% 21% -12%

Commercial Building Macro Conditions

Demand for CRE loans is falling and standards are tightening

Source: U.S Federal Reserve Board

US Retail Building StartsStore construction struggled to make gains throughout expansion


➢Online sales continue to gain share

➢Mixed-use construction providing some support

➢ Store renovations driving activity (no expansion)

-3% 1%

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Total U.S. Retail Store Starts

Billions of Dollars

US Retail Building Starts

Retail square feet per project shrank during recession, hasn’t come back



0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

U.S. Retail Square Feet per Project

(000s)

FL Retail Building StartsStore construction in Florida is stronger but more volatile than US


-14%8%

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Total Florida Retail Starts

Billions of Dollars

➢ Seminole Hard Rock Hotel-Casino with retail (2017); Dania Pointe Retail/Entertainment (2017); Bal Harbour Shops expansion (2018)

FL Retail Building Starts

Retail square feet per project is shrinking in Florida too


0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

Florida Retail Square Feet per Project

(000s)


Partial year

US Retail Building Starts

Retail chains ranked by year-to-date starts value – through August 2018


Dodge Data & AnalyticsTop Retail Chains Ranked by Construction Starts

January-August for Each Year in Millions of Dollars

Rank Retail Chains 2016 2017 2018 Rank Retail Chains 2016 2017 2018

1 $1,217 $984 $864 6 $179 $144 $145

-7% -19% -12% 87% -20% 1%

2 $105 $224 $249 7 $69 $72 $128

-15% 113% 11% 39% 5% 77%

3 $194 $88 $176 8 $61 $132 $128

58% -55% 100% 122% 118% -4%

4 $213 $204 $155 9 $285 $110 $83

21% -4% -24% 27% -62% -24%

5 $97 $133 $148 10 $93 $99 $80

157% 38% 11% 10% 7% -19%

Nordstrom Stores

McDonald's Restaurant

Menard's

Kroger Grocery StoreDollar General

Target

Publix Super MarketWalmart

Aldi Food Store

Costco Warehouse Store

➢ Retail recovery has generally been about grocery

and dollar stores, but not big box or department

stores – even though Giants reflect all

US Hotel Building StartsAfter strong expansion, hotel construction topping out in 2018


➢ Business & leisure travel rising

➢ Convention centers and casinos performing well & driving hotel starts

5%-9%

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

20.0

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Total U.S. Hotel Starts

Billions of Dollars

FL Hotel Building Starts

Florida hotel construction surges in 2017-2018, but not sustainable


➢Miami, Orlando, Tampa, Deltona all see major increases

➢ Seminole Hard Rock Hotel-Casino in Hollywood & Tampa (2017); Daytona convention center hotel (2017); new Marriott Hotels in Orlando & Tampa (2018)

18%

-41%

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Total Florida Hotel Starts

Billions of Dollars

US Hotel Building Starts

Hotel occupancy leveling off and YOY revenue growth easing


2018Q2

➢Occupancy rate = 70.2%

➢RevPAR = +4.0% vs. year ago

FL Hotel Building StartsHotel construction still strong in many top metro areas


Dodge Data & AnalyticsTop Florida Metros for Hotel Construction StartsMillions of Dollars


1 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Miami Beach, FL 439.5 891.4 103%

2 Orlando, FL 264.8 414.5 57%

3 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL 105.3 259.0 146%

4 Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL 69.6 200.0 187%

5 Sarasota-Bradenton-Venice, FL 70.0 59.3 -15%

6 Jacksonville, FL 37.6 21.9 -42%

7 Gainesville, FL 16.2 21.2 31%

8 Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL 0.0 19.0 --

9 Ocala, FL 0.9 11.7 1282%

10 Lakeland, FL 6.5 11.3 74%

US Office Building Starts

Office starts to reach peak in 2018-19


➢Office employment continues to rise, pushing demand higher

➢Data centers/HQs primary areas of growth

➢New supply driving vacancy rates higher, which will slow starts

6% 1%

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

50.0

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Total U.S. Office Starts

Billions of Dollars


Data centers have become a larger share of office construction


2018 thru June

US Office Building StartsSize of office buildings has increased



Office vacancies move higher, while employment growth flattens


2018Q2

Vacancy rate = 13.0%

(2010 Cyclical High was 16.8%)

FL Office Building Starts

After years of hesitation, Florida office starts see healthy gains


9%6%

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Total Florida Office Starts

Billions of Dollars

➢ Mega-projects not

driving this expansion

FL Office Building StartsMiami, Orlando dominate Florida office starts


Dodge Data & AnalyticsTop Florida Metros for Office Construction StartsMillions of Dollars


1 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Miami Beach, FL 419.7 535.6 28%

2 Orlando, FL 118.4 229.3 94%

3 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL 87.1 134.4 54%

4 Sarasota-Bradenton-Venice, FL 58.1 71.5 23%

5 Jacksonville, FL 85.9 69.4 -19%

6 Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL 31.4 46.4 48%

7 Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL 39.5 40.8 3%

8 Tallahassee, FL 15.7 25.8 64%

9 Port St. Lucie-Fort Pierce, FL 13.8 24.4 76%

10 Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL 18.5 17.2 -7%

Institutional Building Outlook

Lee Memorial Gulf Coast Medical Center Fort Meyers, FL

$300 millionGround Breaking: Dec 2017

US Institutional Building Starts

Institutional starts to take the helm from commercial sector


Institutional consists of education, dormitories, healthcare, government bldgs, religious bldgs, recreation bldgs, and transportation buildings

4% 1%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Total U.S. Institutional Bldg Starts

Billions of Dollars

FL Institutional Building Starts

Florida institutional building pulls back in 2018, up modestly in 2019


-12% 3%

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Total Florida Institutional Bldg Starts

Billions of Dollars

US Education Building StartsSolid growth expected for education sector


➢ School bond measures are on the rise

➢ Stock market gains help boost private university spending

➢But, US enrollment growth is slowing

10%7%

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Total U.S. Education Bldg Starts

Billions of Dollars

US Education Building StartsPublic school enrollment growth is strongest in South and West

Source: National Center for Education Statistics

K-12 Public School Enrollment Growth

2017-2026, Percent Change

FL to see

moderate gains

in school

enrollment

US Education Building Starts

College enrollments continue to climb, growth rates slowing


➢Bump caused by the Great Recession – decline in jobs encouraged more to return to college

➢ Enrollments have now returned to longer-term pattern, although rate of growth is slowing

-3%-2%-1%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

22,000

24,000

U.S. College/University Enrollments

(000s)

Enrollments (000s) Annual Percent Change

FL Education Building StartsFlorida education sector receives a boost


➢ Public school construction hit hard with housing market debacle, but now on the mend

➢ Florida college starts show surprising strength over past few years

-4%

33%

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Total Florida Education Bldg Starts

Billions of Dollars

FL Education Building Starts

K-12 starts are larger, but more volatile than college/university starts


➢ In 2006, the dollar value of K-12 starts was 8.1 times the size of college starts, but fell to just 1.1 times in 2012

➢Growth in college starts has begun to narrow gap again

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017

Florida K-12 School vs College Construction Starts(Millions of Dollars)

College

K-12

US Healthcare Building Starts

Healthcare sees long period of uncertainty resulting in flat starts


➢New technology, aging buildings, and demographics (aging population) supportive of growth

➢Uncertainty in national healthcare policy continues to plague growth

➢Hospital mergers/acquisitions accelerating

0%6%

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Total U.S. Healthcare Bldg Starts

Billions of Dollars

FL Healthcare Building Starts

In Florida, higher levels materialize after years of volatility


9% 4%

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Total Florida Healthcare Bldg Starts

Billions of Dollars

➢ Florida’s large elderly

population encourages

gains in healthcare

building

US Healthcare Building StartsStates with largest population growth (Total and Age 65+), 2010-2030

Source: Moody’s Analytics

In Florida,

demand for

healthcare

services will

remain strong.

FL Healthcare Building StartsClinic/nursing home starts grab larger share of total health starts

➢Clinics dominated in 1990s as HMOs grew

➢Hospital mergers pushed construction in 2000s

➢Clinics once again gaining dominance


0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017

Florida Clinic vs. Hospital Construction Starts

(Thousands of Square Feet)

Clinics/Nursing Facils

Hospitals

US Recreation Building Starts

Recreation starts to see 2018 surge


➢ Includes casinos, convention centers, sports arenas (with roofs), student centers

➢ Large sports-related and convention center construction projects dominate construction activity

24%

-14%

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Total U.S. Recreational Bldg Starts

Billions of Dollars

Includes Oakland (Las

Vegas) Raiders NFL Stadium

($1.3Bil), WA state Conv Cntr

($764Mil), Ronald Perelman

WTC Perf Arts Complex

($363Mil)

FL Recreation Building Starts

Recreation starts lower in Florida after 2015-16 surge; level still healthy


➢ 2015-16 dominated by large projects

• 2015 = Miami Beach convention center

• 2016 = Skyplex Entertainment Complex (Orlando), Disney World Star Wars Theme Park, Telemundo Broadcast Studios (Miami)

10% -3%

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Total Florida Recreational Bldg Starts

Billions of Dollars


Largest recreation projects started in Florida, 2015-2018

Dodge Data & AnalyticsFlorida's Largest Amusement Projects, 2015-2018

Project Title City Started Mil $

Miami Beach Convention Center Renov/Expansion Miami Beach 2015:12 477.6

Skyplex Entertainment Complex Orlando 2016:12 242.4

Seminole Hard Rock Recreational Facility Hollywood 2017:06 156.4

Star Wars Park Expan - Walt Disney World Lake Buena Vista 2016:04 135.0

Telemundo Broadcast Studios Miami 2016:03 120.7

Toy Story Land Hollywood Studios, Walt Disney World Lake Buena Vista 2016:04 108.0

Turnberry Isle Conference Center Aventura 2018:01 60.9

Marco Island Marriott Conference Center Marco Island 2015:03 60.4

Stephen O'Connell Center (Add/Renov) Gainesville 2015:12 60.0


Mix of recreation starts in Florida, 2017-2018

Dodge Data & AnalyticsFlorida Construction StartsMillions of Dollars

9 mo 2017 9 mo 2018 % Chg

Arenas/Coliseums 0.0 0.0 --

Auditoriums 0.0 5.0 --

Bowling Alleys 0.0 0.1 --

Clubs and Lodges 97.2 116.1 19%

Communications Buildings 22.4 15.4 -31%

Exhibition Halls 27.4 69.8 155%

Gyms/Field Houses/Indoor Pools 143.4 121.1 -16%

Misc Amusement/Recreational* 329.9 248.8 -25%

Theaters 42.6 69.3 63%

* Parks, etc.

US Recreation Building StartsPro sports attendance remains solid; tops 130 million in 2016

Source: MLB, NBA, NFL, NHL

US Transportation Building StartsTransportation starts remain elevated


➢ Stabilization in federal policy aids starts

➢Rising air traffic and revenues spur airport rehabs

-21%-15%

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Total U.S. Transportation Bldg Starts

Billions of Dollars

LaGuardia, LAX, Farley

Redevel (NYC Penn Station),

Orlando Intl

FL Transportation Building StartsTransportation starts remain elevated


-70%

-66%

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Total Florida Transportation Bldg Starts

Billions of Dollars

Orlando Internat’l Airport’s

South Terminal C project

($1.8 bil)

US Transportation Building Starts

The number of air passengers is at a record high, and still growing

Source: U.S. Bureau of Transportation

Today’s Agenda





© 2016 Autodesk, Inc.

Betterunderstanding

98%

Source: Dodge Data & Analytics • Business Value of of BIM for Owners• Business Value of BIM for Construction in Global Markets

Greater cost predictability

72%

Improvedschedule

85%

Fewererrors

85%

Optimizeddesign

92%

Business value of BIM

CERTAINTY

ConnectedDigital Data &Technologies

Big Data

Computational Design

Simulation / Analysis

Internet of Things

Industrialized Construction

Machine learning

Era of Connection. We’re going beyond simply optimizing a design; we have to

optimize how a product is built (and the

systems that interconnect with it

Today’s Agenda





AI (Artificial

Intelligence)

for Design

Kiewit. Driven by projects. Built by YOU.

2015 Annual MeetingAI for Design

SCOPE

(1) Housing buildings

● substructure ● shell ● interiors ● services

OBJECTIVES

(1) Minimize life-cycle cost

(2) Minimize carbon footprint

VARIABLES

(1) Number of buildings: 3 - 4

(2) Number of stories: 5 - 8

(3) Building footprint: H-shape

(4) Building orientation: 0-360°

CONSTRAINTS

(1) Gross Floor Area (GFA): 1,500m2

(2) Distance to site perimeter: >20m

(3) Distance between building: >20m

DESIGN SPACE SIZE

Possible design configurations: 1.46E11

Design Problem:

1.4611 permutationsSource: Stanford CIFE

Design Teams: Developing more fully-reasoned designs


2015 Annual Meeting

285k

165

195

210

225

180

Results: Life-Cycle Cost vs. Carbon Footprint

275k 280k 290k 295k285k

Carbon Footprint (met tons CO2e)

Life

Cyc

le C

ost

(U

SD

, M

illio

ns)

+

KEY

Baseline

Lowest Cost

Lowest Carbon

Footprint

3 Buildings, 5 Stories








Infeasible Solution

Design Problem: 1.4611 permutations

Source: Stanford CIFE


2015 Annual Meeting Configuration

Life-Cycle Performance

Capital

Operational

Baseline Design1560

Number of buildings: 3

Number of floors: 6

Baseline Design1560

140 122

5848

27 26

259 250

(-$27M)

(-10kt)

COST (USD, Millions) IMPACT (met kt CO2e)

Results: Design #1560

Source: Stanford CIFE

Today’s Agenda





Visualization

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ps:

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m/b

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ign

ing-

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h-m

ach

ine-

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g

Source:ICA

CERTAINTY

Today’s Agenda




– Key Trends Impacting the Future of AEC

Model-driven

Design-for-

Manufacture(Mass

Customization)

DfM

BOEINGEfficiency through Prefabrication

TOYOTAStandard Components Across Models

PROJECT FROGPrefabricated Component Buildings

A Frog for every functionProject Frog has delivered over 100 retail, education, healthcare, and data center buildings saving clients time and money

91

Delivered FasterKaiser Baseline vs. Component Design-Build

- LEED Silver- 9,000 square feet- 16 exam rooms supporting 9 physicians

Traditional Kaiser Schedule (21 months)

Frog Component Design-Build (11.5 months)

Kaiser Permanente MOBVictorville, CA

Today’s Agenda





Model-driven

Fabrication (3D Printing)

Bypass 3D Printed Pipe Fittings

DfM

• 3D printing

• Manufacturers are

“printing” buildings with

layers of concrete

• Printer is 21’ tall and 105’

long

• Uses recycled waste

materials in mix

• 3 story house was

printed 1 floor/day,

cost=$160K

• 5 story apartment

building is largest 3D

printed building in the

world

DfM

• 3D printing

• World’s first 3D printed office

building (Dubai)

• Gensler and Thornton Tomasetti

• Printer was 20’ high, 120’ long,

and 40’ wide

DfM

• 3D printing

• Portable 3D printing with concrete

Contour Crafting

DfM

• 3D printing

• Oak Ridge

National

Laboratory

unveils SOM-

designed 3D-

Printed building

powered by a

car

DfM

• 3D printing

• 3D printing of custom

parts and

components in metal

will become feasible

for use in fabrication

and construction

DfM

• 3D printing

• Mass-customization

• MX3D in Amsterdam

• 3D printing of metal structures

Source: MX3D

DfM

• 3D printing

Source: MX3D



• Generative design and 3D printing of bridge over a canal

DfM

• 3D printing




DfM

• 3D printing




Source: MX3D

DfM

• 3D printing

Source: MX3D


• 3D printing of structures

Today’s Agenda





Integrated

Digital

Project

Delivery

Today’s Agenda





The

Smarter

Jobsite

The Smarter Jobsite

• Material supply chain

Source: Mortenson Construction

Virtual | Augmented Reality and Wearables

Survey re: Jobsite Advancements

• AR/VR

Source: MX3D

Today’s Agenda





The

Digital Twin

on a Global

Scale


2015 Annual MeetingBIM for Infrastructure Design and Construction

Source: Parsons BrinkerhoffSubgrade BIM

Dewberry stuffExisting conditions visibility

Key Trends

Future:

• Model-based processes

• Integrated data-rich workflows

• “…tions”

• Collaboration

• Integration

• Optimization

• Industrialization

• Globalization

Source: Turner Construction

Thank You!

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