Update to COPC4 – 5 November 2014

Dave McCarren, NUOPC DPM

2 NUOPCNational Unified Operational Prediction Capability

2

Agenda

National ESPC

NUOPC UEO Committee

NUOPC CMA Committee Update

Questions and Discussion

The Earth System Prediction Capability (ESPC) Inter-agency Project

The National Earth System Prediction Capability ESPC 4

National ESPC Strategy Whitepaper

• Final version sent to Liaisons incorporating Agency feedback and ESG comments

• 25 Aug ESG Action Item: Continue working on the National ESPC Strategy whitepaper and publish as a response to the 2006 BAMS “Uncoordinated Giant” article, highlighting NUOPC successes.

– Draft proposal for BAMS sent to Liaisons

• 25 Aug ESG Action Item: Create a National ESPC Strategy 2-pager to distribute appropriately to get support for the project.

– National ESPC staff drafting Strategy 2-pager for distribution to Liaisons

National Unified Operational Prediction Capability NUOPC 5

UEO Committee Update

National Unified Operational Prediction Capability NUOPC 6

Unified Ensemble Operations

• UEO continuing efforts to collect wave ensemble metrics; NAWES providing updates at UEO and NAEFS telecons

• NUOPC metrics from NCEP and FNMOC briefed to ESG

• 2014 ensemble User Survey summaries briefed to Navy and AF; working NOAA summary

5-day forecast for surface wind (U)

10-day forecast for surface wind (U)

NH T2m

NA T2m

Relative performance of models varies by forecast lead time and region, but NUOPC is consistently best for all lead times and regions.

FNMOC is now providing all Centers’ models and multi-model NUOPC products to its customers.

(FNMOC)(NCEP) (Canadian)(FNMOC) (NCEP)

CMC added to NUOPC at FNMOC

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CMA Committee Update

National Unified Operational Prediction Capability NUOPC 1414

NUOPC

Common Model Architecture

• CMA working final edit of manuscript for ESPS paper to BAMS

• Added NUOPC Compliant Components to ESPS Coupled Modeling Systems; briefed to ESG

• Just got HYCOM in CESM running in a HYCOM-ICE configuration; not yet scientifically valid but that will take some time.

• ESMF 7.1.0 release in Nov 2014 • PI Group drafting high-level requirements document for Physics

Driver interface design and modernized Kalnay Rules paper for AMS

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• ESPS is a collection of NUOPC-compliant Earth system component and model codes

o interoperable, documented, available to credentialed users

• Implementation is part of NOPP project awarded under ESPC

o “An Integration and Evaluation Framework for ESPC Coupled Models”

• ESPS interfaces are based on ESMF and the NUOPC Layer

• The NUOPC Interoperability Layer:o a set of rules for coding ESMF-

compliant Earth system component and coupled models

• ESPS website with draft inclusion criteria and list of candidate models (Coupled, Atmosphere, Ocean, Ice, and Wave):

http://www.earthsystemcog.org/projects/esps/

DeLuca et al. 2014 (draft)

Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF)

and the Earth System Prediction Suite (ESPS)

Coupled Modeling Systems NEMS CFSv3 COAMPS/

COAMPS-TC

NavGEM-HYCOM-CICE

GEOS-5 ModelE CESM

Driver 2015 2015 Atmospheres

GFS/GSM NMMB CAM 2014FIM 2014 GEOS-5 FV 2015 ModelE Atm 2014 COAMPS Atm NavGEM NEPTUNE 2015 WRF 2014

OceansMOM5 HYCOM NCOM MPAS-O TBDPOP POM 2015

IceCICE 2014 2014

WaveWW3 2014 2014 2014 2014SWAN

  LEGEND          

    

Compliant (Completion date) In progress (Completion date)

Candidate

    Compliant since 3/2014

             

National Unified Operational Prediction Capability NUOPC 16

Questions & Discussion

NUOPC Verification Metrics

EMC/NCEP

October 28th 2014

Acknowledgement: Dr. Yan Luo

For all three individual bias corrected ensemble forecast (NCEP/GEFS, CMC/GEFS and FNMOC/GEFS) and combined (NUOPC) ensemble (equal weights) against UKMet analysis

Period: April 2011 – October 2014

Ratio of RMS error over spread

Northern Hemisphere 500hPa height:

30-day running mean scores of day-5 CRP scoreRMS error and ratio of RMS error / spreadAnomaly correlation

All other regions could be seen from: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/yluo/naefs/VRFY_STATS/NUOPC_bc_COMB_fal2014_ts.html

NH 500hPa anomaly correlation

5-day forecast

NH 500hPa CRP scores

Under-dispersion

Over-dispersion

NH 500hPa RMS errors

Northern Hemisphere 500hPa height:

30-day running mean scores of day-10 CRP scoreRMS error and ratio of RMS error / spreadAnomaly correlation

All other regions could be seen from: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/yluo/naefs/VRFY_STATS/NUOPC_bc_COMB_fal2014_ts.html

10-day forecast

NH CRP scoresNH RMS errors

NA CRP scoresNA RMS errors

5-day forecast for surface temperature

10-day forecast for surface temperature

5-day forecast for surface wind (V)

10-day forecast for surface wind (V)

Latest 4-month statistic scores

June 1st – September 30th 2014

Northern Hemisphere 500hPa height:

Latest 2-month scored: CRPS skill scoreRMS error and ratio of RMS error / spreadAnomaly correlation

All other regions/scores could be seen from: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/yluo/NUOPC/NUOPC_bc_fal2014.html

NH CRPS skill scores

NH anomaly correlation

500hPa Height

NH RMS errors

NH CRPS skill scores NH RMS errors

NA CRPS skill scores NA RMS errors

Surface temperature

NH CRPS skill scores NH RMS/Spread scores

For surface wind (U)

NH CRPS skill scoresNH RMS/Spread scores

For surface wind (V)

Comparing of NCEP/GEFS, NAEFS and NUOPC for all bias corrected ensemble forecasts, against UKMet analysis

Period: April 2011 – October 2014

Day-5 NH 500hPa height

Day-10 NH 500hPa height