status briefing on national unified operational prediction capability (nuopc)
DESCRIPTION
NUOPC. Status Briefing on National Unified Operational Prediction Capability (NUOPC). Fred Toepfer, NUOPC PM May 29, 2008. Purpose. Brief review of NUOPC back ground & goals Status Next Steps. NUOPC Background. 2005 - Tri-Agency established a goal of complementary operational NWP - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Status Briefing on National Unified Operational Prediction Capability
(NUOPC)
Fred Toepfer, NUOPC PM
May 29, 2008
NUOPC
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Purpose
• Brief review of NUOPC back ground & goals
• Status
• Next Steps
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NUOPC Background
• 2005 - Tri-Agency established a goal of complementary operational NWP
• 2006 - Reviewed opportunities and alternatives; selected coordinated Global NWP as initial focus area
• 2007 - Developed initial concepts and project plan for NUOPC– Dialog with Stakeholders March, 2007– Approved by Tri-Agency principals group (DOC US for Ocean and
Atmospheres, AF/A30-W, and Navy N84)
• 2008 – Appointed Project Manager– Executing NUOPC Phase I– ESG approved interim committee chairmen– Second dialog with Stakeholders April, 2008
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NUOPC Vision (2015)
• Tri-Agency partnership to address common operational global NWP needs
• National NWP system with interoperable components built on common standards and framework (ESMF)
• Managed operational ensemble diversity • Joint ensemble
– Most probable forecast -- e.g. high impact weather
– Mission Specific ensemble products• National global NWP research agenda to
accelerate science and technology infusion
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NUOPC Implementation ScheduleFY2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Prelim Phase I
Implementation Phase II FOC
Beta Test Phase III
STAFFING
CODE CONV.
MGMT REPORTG MOA
INIT.STANDARDS SOFTWARE CONVERSION
OPERATIONS
OUTREACH
MAINTAIN
Full Staff
Common Rqmts, Rsch Agenda DTC/VTC
ENS OPS TESTCONOPS, COMMS, IA
DECISION BRIEF TO PRINCIPALS EXTERNAL RESEARCH WORKSHOP
FOC
Quarterly Updates to Principals
STANDARDS
PARTICIPATION
TT PM, TEMPS
IOC-2IOC-1
PROTOTYPE OPS
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Status
• PM appointed• Rest of staff being acquired – DPM, etc.• IOC-1 Redefined
– Delivering NAEFS w/FNMOC Participation– Pursuing funding for three stretch goals
• Definition of NUOPC – Three interim committees being formed– Chairmen of committees approved– Membership being fleshed out
• Meeting with committee chairs today
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Info & Outreach Briefings
• COPC (November 15, 2007)• AMS (Jan 22, 2008, New Orleans)• NOAA/NCEP (March 13, 2008)• Navy/FNMOC (April 2, 2008)• Stakeholders - R&D Community (29 April 2008, ONR)
– NASA– FAA– OFCM– NOAA/OAR/NCEP/EMC/NODC– ONR/NRL– NCAR– DoD
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Air Force (A3O-W)Dr. Lewis
Air Force (A3O-W)Dr. Lewis
Navy(CNO N84)
RADM Gove
Navy(CNO N84)
RADM Gove
NOAA(Administrator)
VADM Lautenbacher
NOAA(Administrator)
VADM Lautenbacher
Executive Steering GroupExecutive Steering Group
NUOPC Project Manager - Fred ToepferDeputy Project Manager - TBD
NUOPC Project Manager - Fred ToepferDeputy Project Manager - TBD
LtCol Bruce LambertBrian Moore
LtCol Bruce LambertBrian Moore
Kim CurrySteve PayneKim Curry
Steve Payne
Joel ClineJeremy Potter
Joel ClineJeremy Potter
Col Ralph Stoffler (AFW) & Col John Murphy (AFWA)
Col Ralph Stoffler (AFW) & Col John Murphy (AFWA)
Mr. Robert Winokur (N84) & RDML David Titley (CNMOC)Mr. Robert Winokur (N84) &
RDML David Titley (CNMOC)
Dr. Jack Hayes (NWS) & Dr. Richard Spinrad (OAR)Dr. Jack Hayes (NWS) &
Dr. Richard Spinrad (OAR)
TechnologyTransition
TechnologyTransition
AgencyLiaisonsAgencyLiaisons
InterimCommittees
InterimCommittees
CommonModel Architecture
CommonModel Architecture
UnifiedEnsemble Operations
UnifiedEnsemble Operations
NUOPC StaffPaul Demmert / Fran Bieker / William O’Connor / Scott Sandgathe / Chuck McKinley
NUOPC StaffPaul Demmert / Fran Bieker / William O’Connor / Scott Sandgathe / Chuck McKinley
NUOPC Management Structure
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Interim Committee Process
• Common Model Architecture– to facilitate accelerated transition and sharing of
technological advances• Technology Transition Process
– Common process and DTC to accelerate transition of internal and external research
– Coordinated research investment to address common operational needs
• Unified Ensemble Operations– Shared processing burden, coordinated
schedules, coordinated post-processing
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Committee Goals• Minimize operational center disruption• Achieve common architecture objectives while
sustaining developmental headway• Achieve full stakeholder support• Develop well-defined standards that will focus
research community participation and accelerate development
• Develop standards and methodology that can evolve with changing technology
• Operational centers involved up front (primary stakeholders)
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IOC-1 Status
• NAEFS Implementation on Track– FNMOC ensembles flowing to NCEP since 1 April – Represents base IOC-1
• IOC-1 Stretch Goals Defined– Ensemble-based Ceiling & Visibility Product– Joint Wind-Seas Product– TC Track Uncertainty Guidance– 6 to14 Day TC Track and Intensity Guidance
• Seeking funding for stretch goals
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Next Steps
• Meet with Committee Chairs today• Identify committee members• ESG approve membership• Initiate committee meetings• Pursue funding for stretch goals• Establish forum for community
awareness and input• Initiate one-on-one outreach meetings
to primary R&D providers
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Questions & Comments
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The NUOPC Partnership• Coordinated technology development for future systems
• Interoperable model architecture to allow for exchange of technology at the component level
• Common Developmental test structure with available tools, support and access to data, data assimilation and developmental models (DTC or VTC)
• Prioritization of common operational needs
• Aligned transition processes
• Joint ensemble system with managed diversity
– Share operational computing costs
– Maintain capability of each agency to meet Agency unique operational requirements through driving downstream applications
– Significant acceleration in operational performance
• Project Manager responsible to Tri-Agency Executive Steering Group (ESG)
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NUOPC Description
• The NUOPC partnership exists to enable a Tri-Agency joint global atmospheric ensemble forecast system
• NUOPC is an integration of ongoing efforts coordinated by a Tri-agency management organization
• NUOPC is not:– An R&D or acquisition project– A unified management system for operations
or acquisition– A unification of agency missions
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Expectations• NUOPC is an agreement between the three
operational production facilities to improve efficiency through collaboration.
• Every attempt should be made to avoid significant disruption of the operational centers or to impede developmental headway.
• The secondary objective of NUOPC is to entrain the broader research and development community into supporting research critical to the success of the operational centers.
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Launching NUOPC Phase I 1FY08 2FY08 3FY08 4FY08 1FY09 2FY09 3FY09 4FY09
Phase I Tasks
Beg
in P
has
e I
I Im
ple
men
tati
on
IOC-1Committees/Panels work tasks
PM & Staff Review
Interagency Review & Coord
Committee Tasks
Decision Brief to Principals StaffESG Approve Standards Draft Standards Reports
Budget, IPLAN, CONOPS
PM & Staff integrate Committee task results
PM & Staff review committees’ progress
Coord
AppointAgencies Appoint Committee Reps
Follow up
Jan 08
Jan 09
May 09
Sep 09
Committee Reports to PM & Staff
Apr 08 Jul 08 Oct 08 Jan 09 Apr 08
ESG Approve & Hire PM
SelectJan 08