unit 12 university of sunderland csem04 rosco risk assessment: riskit analysis graph csem04: risk...
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Unit 12University of Sunderland CSEM04 ROSCO
Risk Assessment: Riskit Risk Assessment: Riskit Analysis GraphAnalysis Graph
CSEM04: Risk and Opportunities of Systems Change in Organisations
Prof. Helen M Edwards
Unit 12University of Sunderland CSEM04 ROSCO
OverviewOverview
• Riskit Analysis Graph Background
• Riskit Analysis Graph Components
• General Examples
• Software Systems Examples– A Riskit Analysis Graph for a Systems Change
Case Study– A student generated graph
Unit 12University of Sunderland CSEM04 ROSCO
Riskit Analysis Riskit Analysis Graph Background Graph Background
• This technique belongs to the Riskit method• Riskit was designed to manage risk during
systems development.– However, there is nothing in it that restricts its use
to such a perspective.
• Kontio, J (1997) The Riskit Method for Software Risk Management, version 1.00, CS-TR-3782, 1997. Computer Science Technical Reports. University of Maryland.– Available from http://www.soberit.hut.fi/~jkontio/riskittr.pdf
Unit 12University of Sunderland CSEM04 ROSCO
Risk Analysis GraphRisk Analysis Graph(example from the Riskit Manual)
Unit 12University of Sunderland CSEM04 ROSCO
Riskit Analysis Riskit Analysis Graph ComponentsGraph Components
The overall risk being evaluated
An event that may occur as a result of the risk happening
A possible action that can be taken in response to the event happening
The resultant costs to the organisation on taking a specific action
Consequences can be either deterministic (known): full arrow. Or stochastic (probabilistic) : dashed arrow
An outcome (can be omitted) shows the situation in a project after the risk event has occurred but before any corrective action is taken.
Outcome
Unit 12University of Sunderland CSEM04 ROSCO
General Example of General Example of Riskit Analysis Graph Riskit Analysis Graph
ComponentsComponents• Risk Factor: a high cholesterol diet • Risk Event: a doctor's diagnosis of a patient’s heart
problem
• Risk Outcome: a diagnosed heart disease exists • Risk Reaction: treatment of heart problem • Risk Effect: hospital stay • Utility Loss*: loss of time, expenses: in this case
emotional upset and disruption to normal life.
SWAP TO RAG EXAMPLE SLIDES
*net effect of “pain” felt by individuals
Unit 12University of Sunderland CSEM04 ROSCO
• Risk Factor: living near a fault line of earth's plates• Risk Event: an earthquake• Risk Outcome: some buildings/roads destroyed• Risk Reaction: reconstruction of infrastructure• Risk Effect: cost of reconstruction• Utility Loss*: loss of time, expenses
– for one individual minimal - since personal losses low and covered by insurance,
– for another catastrophic - since home destroyed and without insurance.
General Example of General Example of Riskit Analysis Graph Riskit Analysis Graph
ComponentsComponents
*net effect of “pain” felt by individuals
Unit 12University of Sunderland CSEM04 ROSCO
Software Systems Software Systems ExampleExample
• Risk Factor: inexperience of personnel
• Risk Event: a system crashes
• Risk Outcome: system out of operation for up to 8 hours
• Risk Reaction: systems operational after delay, back up data restored
• Risk Effect: added cost • Utility Loss: perceived harm experienced by
stakeholders: in this case minimal since only small data entry per day and data backed up daily
Unit 12University of Sunderland CSEM04 ROSCO
Software Systems Software Systems ExampleExample
• Risk Factor: use of new development methods
• Risk Event: key personnel leave
• Risk Outcome: personnel and competence shortage
• Risk Reaction: recruiting initiated, staff reassigned
• Risk Effect: two month delay
• Utility Loss: perceived harm experienced by stakeholders: in this case
catastrophic since software delay results in client imposing
financial penalty.
Unit 12University of Sunderland CSEM04 ROSCO
Effect Set
Project behind schedule:10 months budget overrun by £10,000
Reaction
Reaction
Do nothing
Allocate more resource
Utility Loss
Delaying other projects (significant problem)Unable to process all potential orders - lost business (catastrophic)
Effect Set
Project behind schedule: 2 weeks budget overrun £25,000
Utility Loss
Reduced budget available for planned projects resulting in delay to some non-critical projects (minor problem)
A Riskit Analysis Graph for A Riskit Analysis Graph for a Systems Change Case a Systems Change Case
StudyStudy
Factor
Lack of IT specialist
Factor
Lack of staff training
Event
Project costs underestimated.
Outcome
Project behind schedule, exceeding budgets
Factor
Lack of IT specialist
Unit 12University of Sunderland CSEM04 ROSCO
A Riskit Analysis Graph for A Riskit Analysis Graph for a Systems Change Case a Systems Change Case
Study (part 1)Study (part 1)
Factor
Lack of IT specialist
FactorLack of staff training
Event Project costs underestimated.
OutcomeProject behind schedule, exceeding budgets
Factor
Lack of IT specialist
Reaction
Reaction
Do nothing
Allocate more resource
Unit 12University of Sunderland CSEM04 ROSCO
Effect SetProject behind schedule:10 months budget overrun by £10,000
Reaction
Reaction
Do nothing
Allocate more resource
Utility LossDelaying other projects (significant problem)Unable to process all potential orders - lost business (catastrophic)
Effect SetProject behind schedule: 2 weeks budget overrun £25,000
Utility LossReduced budget available for planned projects resulting in delay to some non-critical projects (minor problem)
A Riskit Analysis Graph for A Riskit Analysis Graph for a Systems Change Case a Systems Change Case
Study (part 2)Study (part 2)
Unit 12University of Sunderland CSEM04 ROSCO
A student A student generated generated
graphgraph