Understanding Iraqi opinion today

A special attention to Sunni’s and their relation with ISIL

Munqith M. Dagher Ph. D

IIACSS founder and CEO

Methodology

• Three tracking polls in Sunni’s areas: a. June 2014 n= 700. CATI. b. Feb.2015 n= 800. PAPI. c. April 2015 n= 800. PAPI.• Selected F2F nation wide polls between 2003-

2024• In depth interviews with Sunni’s POL.• Different waves of FG’s with Sunni’s.

Generally speaking, do you think that each one of these bodies has negative influence or positive

influence upon the internal situation in Iraq?

Iraqi army Iraqi Federal Police The Iraqi parliament

64.762.8

23.224.7

17.9

50.4

Positive influence Negative influence

Positi

ve in

fluen

ce

Neg

ative

influ

ence

Positi

ve in

fluen

ce

Neg

ative

influ

ence

Anbar Nainawa

48.6%

33.6%

26.3%

56.6%52.3%

29.0%

34.3% 34.3%

24.3%

57.9%

4.0%

74.7%

Iraqi army Iraqi Federal Police The Iraqi parliament

(Anbar and Ninawa has more negative attitudes toward national institutions. The worse is toward the parliament )

Generally speaking, do you think that each one of these bodies has negative influence or positive

influence upon the internal situation in Iraq?

Flash poll survey 2015

DISIL

Badr O

rganiza

tion

Salam

Brigad

es

Leagu

e of th

e Righ

teous

0.9

11.9 13.28.6

94.4

71.4

62.3

76.0

Positive influence Negative influence

DISIL Badr Organization Salam Brigades League of the Righteous

0.9%

9.3%13.1% 12.1%

94.4%

78.5%

71.0%77.6%

1.0%4.0%

8.1%5.1%

93.9%

85.9%

58.6%

88.9%

Anbar Positive influence Anbar Negative influenceNainawa Positive influence Nainawa Negative influence

(Anbar and Ninawa have the same negative attitudes toward ISIL and Shias militias. Sadrist got the less negative evaluation among Shia’s militias.)

Iran International Alliance against ISIL

3.7

26.0

86.7

51.5

Positive influence Negative influence

Posi

tive

influ

ence

Neg

ative

influ

ence

Posi

tive

influ

ence

Neg

ative

influ

ence

Anbar Nainawa

3.7%

90.7%

2.0%

97.0%

32.7% 35.5%28.3%

47.5%

IranInternational Alliance against ISIL

Generally speaking, do you think that each one of these bodies has negative influence or positive influence upon the internal situation in Iraq?

Negative attitudes toward Iran are as worse as it is toward militias and ISIL. Sunni’s have not clear idea twoard International coalition

Flash poll survey 2015

34%

66%

Yes, I feel good for that No, I am concerned

The media broadcasted recently news about the marching of the People Moblized Forces in Saladin areas. How far you feel good toward this news?

Anbar Nainawa

23.4%

13.1%

76.6%

86.9%

Yes, I feel good for that No, I am concerned

Sunni’s,specially in Nainawa and Anbar have serious concerns about PeopleMobilized forces

Revenge and Iranian influence behind these concerns (ISIL propaganda is using this widely in their communication strategy)

Afraid fr

om the re

venge

of the Popular

Mobiliz

ation Fo

rces a

Afraid fr

om the Ira

nian in

fluence in

these

areas

85.5

10.3

Anbar Nainawa

81.7%

95.3%

14.6%

0.0%

Afraid from the revenge of the Popular Mobilization Forces against the civilians of these areas Afraid from the Iranian influence in these areas

what is the reason behind concern marching of the People Mobilized Forces in Saladin areas ?

In comparison with legal institutions(though they don’t trust it) Sunni’s clearly against ISIL

Some of the Sunni representatives have stated recently that living under ISIL control is better than living under the Iraqi government control, do you agree with this?

2%

98%

Yes No

Anbar Nainawa

0.9%6.1%

90.7%87.9%

Yes No

How much confidence do you have in the following to improve the situation in Iraq? (Iraqi Government)

Trust Trust Trust Trust2011 2012 2013 2014

41

35

24

36

55

59

46

68

Sunni Muslim Shia Muslim

C. Lack of trust (1)

But its different picture when comparing ISIL with Shia’s militias specially in Ninawa

Some of the Sunni representatives have stated recently via media that living under ISIL control is better than allowing the Shia militias to enter Saladin and Mosul, do you agree with this?

YesNo

45.1

54.9

Anbar Nainawa

27.1%

37.4%

51.4%

35.4%

Yes No

The age ,the gender , of those who prefer living under ISILcontrol rather than control of shia militia

18-45 age Male Female

71.0

50.5 49.5

Who are those who preferred ISIL over Shia’s militia’s ? Mainly Young Sunni’s

Iraqi a

rmy

Iraqi P

olice

Popular Mobiliz

ation Force

s

Arabic

tribes i

n Mosu

l

American Fo

rces

Arabic

Force

s

89.1

72.7

30.5

84.6

32.7 31.9

10.9

27.3

69.5

15.4

67.3 68.1

Yes No

If I want to form a force to fight ISIL and eliminating it from AL Mosul, so which of the following bodies you agree to participate with this force?

Iraqi army Iraqi Police Popular Mobilization

Forces

Arabic tribes in Mosul

American Forces

Arabic Forces

88.8%

68.2%

20.6%

95.3%

41.1%

55.1%

84.8%

55.6%

5.1%

96.0%

40.4% 42.4%

11.2%

31.8%

79.4%

4.7%

58.9%

44.9%

15.2%

44.4%

94.9%

4.0%

59.6% 57.6%

Yes Anbar Yes Nainawa No Anbar No Nainawa

Iraqi army, Police and Tribe are the preferred forces to fight ISIL

A Reportage has been posted recently about what did ISIL achieve in the areas which it controlled, according to what you think, are there some positives which ISIL achieved in the areas that it controlled?

Achieving safety in these areas Eliminating the spread

corruption in these areas Revenge for the Sunni of due to what they faced through the past eleven

years

There is no positive point

15.7

10.3

6.0

77.0

Security and fighting corruption are the main achievements of ISIL

How safe/unsafe do you feel in your neighborhood?Mosul and Salahdin

Nation wide survey June 2014

2011 Unsafe 2012 Unsafe 2013 Unsafe 2014 Unsafe0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Sunni MuslimShia Muslim

Sunni vs. Shia Perceived Insecurity – Mosul and Salahdin

The l

ack of s

ecurit

y

Deterio

ration in

the s

tandard

of livin

g

Restric

ting the p

ersonal

freed

om of indivi

duals

Strict

applica

tion of the S

haria a

s the o

rganiza

tion believ

es

The l

ack of th

e public

servic

es (W

ater, E

lectri

city,…

. Etc)

Deterio

ration of th

e educati

onal lev

el

Deterio

ration of th

e hea

lth le

vel

The l

ack of a

centra

l authorit

y of th

e gove

rnmen

t and its

insti

tutions

48.6

62.1

49.052.0

64.258.2

46.3

23.2

According to what you think, what are the most prominent negatives which ISIL brought in down the areas which it controlled?

Lack of Public services and deterioration of economic situation are the main negatives of ISIL

Why then did Dai’sh take over Sunni’s areas? Political and social factors

What then explains Dai’sh takeover of Sunni areas?

Based on series of polls and in-depth interviews which I made during the last year,I have reached a solid conclusion. In the areas where Da'ish/ISIL have surged, there exist wide feelings of injustice, deep resentments about basic inequality and a growing gap of trust between the governors and the governed. What this has led to in the areas where Da'ish/ISIL has strengthened its grip is a radicalism that is filling the gap left absence of national identity.

Sunnis’ association with Iraq as the basis for their identity decreased sharply from 80% in 2008 to 60% in 2010 and it is now only 40%

Iraqi Sunni National Identification

2008 2010 2014

8060

40

I am Iraqi above all

Niche of Hope. Its not difficult to gain back Sunni’s trust

July 2014 Sep 14

4

47

93

49

Trust in governmentTrust Do not trust

We only need to identify the right approach (1)

• Though Da'ish/ISIL alternative cannot logically hold, what we need to direct our attention towards today is a way to address the real social and political needs of people in these areas that will further de-legitimize Da'ish/ISIL.

• Dai’sh raised up in Sunni’s areas in Iraq and Syria as a

result of deep and wide feelings of injustice, unfairness and lack of trust in governments. Without addressing and healing these feelings in the region, any military action will have a very limited results and may make things even worse.

We only need to identify the right approach(2)

• There are several rationales that ISIL is using to drive this recruitment:

o First, there is the external threat of the Iraqi military and police forces of the Maliki government that were largely composed of Shi'a militias who broadly abused local populations over the last several years.

o Second, there is a strong and growing hatred of Iran and its involvement in these areas (Click Video)

o Third, there is a new, combined threat posed by the United States acting in concert with Iran. This is being communicated as a "new crusade" of Christians against Muslims.

We only need to identify the right approach (3)

• Another basis of recruitment is theological, defense of Sunni values. Yet this is flawed on many levels. As indicated previously, Sunnis are, on the whole, significantly more secular than Shi'a. The destruction of mosques is one example of how ISIL are imposing their own version of religion that is not consistent with the practices and traditions of the region. More information about this needs to be disseminated.

• ISIL is anticipating airstrikes and aims to gain maximum advantage from these. Currently, ISIL is placing its flag on civilian centers to ensure maximum collateral damage from strikes, that will push public sentiment further to its side and generate even greater hatred of those behind the strikes.

• Airstrikes alone will be disastrous. A carefully-calibrated effort to win the hearts and mind of the people in this areas is critically important, yet there has been too little discussion of what this will involve. The fears of the people in these areas must be addressed and a better alternative to ISIL must be presented. There are a number of ways to communicate with people in these areas

We only need to identify the right approach (4)

Thank you