uk electrification: the road to 2050 - investment bank · 2020. 2. 18. · the road to 2050 in the...
TRANSCRIPT
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Under the UK’s new electric vehicle policy, electric vehicles are likely to need 23 teraWatt hours by 2030 and 56tWh by 2050, equivalent to 7% and 17% of total 2016 UK power demand.
One teraWatt =
1,000,000,000,000 WattsAn average fridge consumes 35 Watts per day
Power-guzzlers
Investment needed Supporting the growth in demand for energy will require significant investment in renewable energy, replacing ageing infrastructure, installing smart energy systems and electric vehicle charging stations, and providing adequate energy storage facilities.
More than £185bn
by 2030
More than £396bn
by 2050
0 100 200 300 400£(bn)
Power needed to keep EVs on the road
56tWh
2050
2030
23tWh
The UK is committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 80% between 1990 and 2050
Solar and wind power are known as intermittent renewables, and in the UK supply is well matched to demand on a monthly/seasonal basis: more sun in summer and even more wind in winter.
However, on a daily basis in winter when demand is at its highest, the coldest temperatures are typically accompanied by low wind speeds. This results in an inverse correlation between demand and supply. Reliable energy storage is thus essential.
Lithium-ion batteries are crucial for storing the unreliable energy output of intermittent renewables. But for longer-duration energy storage and output requirements, pumped-storage hydroelectricity and hydrogen offer far superior economics, making a mixed-technology solution most viable.
The way energy is generated is changing rapidly around the world, and governments, organisations, investors and individuals are all in search of effective ways to adapt. A successful transformation to a low-carbon future requires a focus on new technologies low on CO2 with substantial investment in efficient energy storage, electric vehicle charging infrastructure and smart energy systems.
2040Sale of ICE cars and vans banned
2050Use of ICE vehicles banned
Harnessing weather to meet demand
The Energy Revolution
Storing good energy
Currently, ground transport and heating are two of the largest carbon emitters, together producing nearly two and a half times the amount of CO2 generated by power stations in 2016. They’re also huge energy consumers, using roughly the same amount of energy that was electrified in 2016.
Electric vehicles (EVs) could help lower pollution, but it depends on where they source their electricity. If, for example, an EV is charged by electricity from a standard coal power station, it will emit nearly twice as much CO2 during its
lifespan as a similar vehicle with an internal combustion engine (ICE).
Power stationsDown 61%
HeatingDown 16%
Road transportDown 0.7%
How the UK has reduced its CO2 emissions between 1990 and 2016
Emissions depend on the energy source
The biggest emitters
The law of the land
Electric vehicles to the rescue?
Comparing the emissions of electric* and internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles over their life cycle
*265 mile range. Source: Drax, UCSUSA, IVL, UK Government, RAC, Barclays Research estimates
Coal Open cycle gas turbine used at peak hours only
Average combined cycle gas turbine
(CCGT)
High-efficiency CCGT
DRAX power station biomass
1.2x
0.8x
0.4x
0x
1.6x
2x
17%UK power stations'
contribution to greenhouse gases
in 2016
40%Heating & ground
transport's contribution to emissions
in 2016
Source: Company Reports, Barclays Research estimates
National Grid predicted range
National Grid predicted average
Barclays predictions
Hydrogen storage
Pumped-storage hydroelectricity
Power station
Lower reservoir
Turbine
Upper reservoir
Water pumped up for storage
Water flows down to generate
electricity
1990 2016
Source: Committee on Climate Change, UK Government, Barclays Research Estimates.
Source: Company reports, Barclays Research Estimates.
With the electrification of transport and heating, the UK's appetite for power will increase. It will need to be met in new and innovative ways over the coming
decades to meet demand and reduce emissions. Compared to 2016, demand for power will grow 6% by 2030 and 22% by 2050.
Hungry for power
Total electricity demand
UK electrification: the road to 2050
In the coming decades, transportation and heating in the UK will increasingly be powered by electricity. To ensure this rise goes hand-in-hand with a reduction in
greenhouse gases, renewable energy will become even more important.
So what will it take for the UK to seize the opportunities and overcome the challenges ahead in the Energy Revolution?
Avg comparable ICE
1.9x
1.5x
1.3x1.2x
0.7x
300
320
340
360
380
400
420tWh
2008 2014 2020 2026 2032 2038 2044 2050