udan regional connectivity scheme icra research services 2016.pdf · regional connectivity scheme:...

ICRA RESEARCH SERVICES

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Anand Kulkarni +91 20 6606 9910 [email protected] Kinjal Shah +91 22 6114 3442 [email protected]

UDAN – Regional Connectivity Scheme

“Well intentioned; success hinges on broad-based participation”

mailto:[email protected]


ICRA Limited P a g e | 2

What’s Inside

I. The Scheme: Who is gaining?

II. Regional Connectivity Scheme: Affordable regional flying targeted through fiscal support to airlines

III. Key features and implications

IV. Airlines: Opportunity for regional airlines to improve operations

V. State Governments: Upfront support requirements which may reap benefits over the medium to long term

VI. Passengers: The ultimate winner

VII. Conclusion


Glossary & Definitions

AAI: Airports Authority of India

ASKM: Available Seat Kilometers – A measure of a flight’s passenger carrying capacity. It is calculated by multiplying the number of seats on

an aircraft by the number of kilometers flown

ATF: Aviation Turbine Fuel

MoCA: Ministry of Civil Aviation

Non RCS route: A route which is not an RCS route

Non RCS seat: A passenger seat on an RCS flight which is not an RCS seat as defined by eligibility criteria of RCS seats. For RCS flights, 50% of

total flight capacity subject to a minimum of nine seats and a maximum of 40 seats can be RCS seats, while others must be non RCS seats

PLF: Passenger Load Factor

RCF: Regional Connectivity Fund – This will be generated by applying levy on Cat-I and Cat-III routes as per route dispersal guidelines (RDG)

and would be used to provide viability gap funding (VGF) to RCS flights

RCS: Regional Connectivity Scheme

RCS Airport: Any airport licensed by DGCA for which the airport owner/operator and the state government have extended concessions and

support measures as specified in RCS

RCS Flight: Domestic flight using a fixed wing aircraft or helicopter, operated by a selected airline operator on an RCS route

RCS Network: Network connecting a minimum of three and maximum of 7 distinct airports having at least one RCS route

RCS Route: A route connecting an identified pair of airports/helipads within India under RCS, satisfying following criteria

o At least one of the origin or destination airports/helipads as unserved or underserved airports

o There have been no scheduled commercial flights on such routes for the last two flight schedules

o For helicopters, there have not been more than 50 commercial operations for last one year as certified by AAI

o Stage length between the origin and destination airports is not less than 150 km

RCS Seats: Number of passenger seats to be sold at or below the airfare cap by the selected airline operator on an RCS flight

RDG: Route Dispersal Guidelines

VGF: Viability Gap Funding

Yield: Revenue per unit. E.g. Revenue per passenger.


The Scheme

UDAN – Regional Connectivity Scheme

Well intentioned; success hinges on broad-based participation Special Comment October 2016

Positives

Policy level support including lower taxes,

charges, subsidised services and VGF

Development of deeper feeder network to

major routes

Positives

Regional connectivity at affordable

prices, fare capped as per stage length

(Rs. 2,500 for ~500 km route)

Positives

Economic growth through employment

generation, faster commutation and

tourism demand

Negatives

Levy on Cat-I1 and Cat-III routes to

increase fares; however, would not

materially impact demand

VGF Benefits capped

Competitive bidding may reduce the

quantum of final VGF support

Negatives

Levy on Cat-I and Cat-III routes to

increase fares; however, the increase

would not be material

Negatives

Various concessions/ support to be

granted like lower taxes, free/subsidised

services

Reimburse 20% of VGF requirements

(10% for NE regions and union territories)

for respective RCS routes

Challenges

Participation of airlines considering cap on VGF, restricted tenure of VGF and cap on number of seats eligible under RCS

Participation of States in RCS considering upfront support requirements

Timely availability of infrastructure at unserved and underserved airports

Lack of clarity on incentives for the airports to participate in the scheme and their financial viability

State Governments Airlines

Passengers

Regional Connectivity

Scheme -

Who is gaining?

The Ministry of Civil Aviation (MoCA) released the Regional Connectivity Scheme (RCS) – UDAN – on October 21, 2016 in line with the broad outline

provided in the National Civil Aviation Policy (NCAP) dated June 15, 2016. Through this Scheme, the MoCA reiterates its focus on affordable regional flying

for passengers by providing a favourable eco-system through fiscal support and infrastructure development. The AAI is being designated as the

implementing agency for RCS. The objective is to encourage long-term sustainability of operations under RCS, such that the connectivity established is not

dependent on VGF in perpetuity.

1 Taking into account the need for connectivity to remote regions in the country, the MoCA has laid down Route Dispersal Guidelines. According to these guidelines, all scheduled operators are

required to deploy in the North Eastern region, Jammu & Kashmir, Andaman & Nicobar Islands and Lakshadweep (Category-II routes) at least 10% of their deployed capacity on trunk routes (Category-I routes). Further, at least 10% of the capacity on Category-II routes is required to be deployed for connectivity exclusively within these regions. 50% of the capacity deployed on Category-I routes is to be deployed on routes other than Category-I and Category-II routes i.e. Category-III routes.


Regional Connectivity Scheme: Affordable regional flying targeted through fiscal support to airlines

The RCS, proposed to be commenced from January 2017, has a key objective of facilitating balanced regional air connectivity by making it affordable

through fiscal support and regional infrastructure development.

Impact:

Proposed policy level support is a positive for enlarging the reach

•Viability gap funding (VGF) indexed to inflation, ATF prices and INR-USD exchange rate fluctuations based on competitive bidding - shared between MoCA and State Governments in 80:20 ratio (90:10 for north eastern states and union territories)

•Regional connectivity fund (RCF) will be created to provide VGF, to be funded by a levy on all domestic routes except Cat II, IIA and RCS routes and aircraft below 80 seats irrespective of the route

•Service tax on 10% of the taxable amount (90% abatement) for one year; excise duty on ATF at 2% (abatement 12%) for three years

Central Government

•Reduce VAT on ATF to 1% or less (average 1-29%) for 10 years

•Provide free land, multi-nodal hinterland connectivity, free security and fire services, concessional power, water and utilities

State Governments

•Revival of unserved/underserved airstrips

•Provide operating infrastructure like fueling facilities Infrastructure

•No airport charges; no landing, parking and terminal navigation landing charges for 10 years

•Discounted route navigation facilitation charges - 42.50% of normal rates - for 10 years

•Selected airline operators allowed to undertake ground handling for their RCS flights at all airports

Airport operators/ AAI

Fare Cap

Central Support

State Support Infrastructure

Airport Operators/ AAI

Fare Cap: A pre-decided fare (indexed to inflation and

inclusive of service tax) based on stage length for regional

airport connectivity. The fare cap ranges from Rs. 1,420 for

a distance of ~151 kms to Rs. 3,500 for a distance more than

800 kms on RCS routes.

The target is proposed to be implemented by a

comprehensive plan involving financial support and

consessions from central and state governments and

regional infrastructure improvement.


Key features and implications: Minimum performance specifications for the airlines, Regulatory support requirements

Minimum performance specifications of the scheme: The route/network connecting any of the

unserved/underserved airports to other airports or to each other would be considered as RCS route/network.

The selected airline operator should provide 50% of the total seats on an RCS flight as RCS seats subject to a

minimum and maximum of 9 seats and 40 seats, respectively. For helicopters, the minimum and maximum

RCS seats are 5 and 13 respectively. The airline should operate minimum of three and maximum of seven

departures per week from the same RCS airport. [seats above these minimum numbers would not be eligible

for VGF, though other benefits on levies and service tax would continue and the pricing cap would also not be

applicable on these seats] The selected airline operator would have to enter into a three-year contract with

the Implementing Agency for operations on the RCS route. At the time of signing the contract, the airline

operator will be required to submit a performance guarantee to AAI for an amount equivalent to 5% of the

total VGF amount to be provided to the airline operator. Additionally, if the RCS airport is non-operational

and/or requires investment of Rs. 5 crore or more, the airline operator should submit an additional

performance guarantee of Rs. 1 crore to AAI.

Implications: The restriction on maximum number of seats under RCS makes ideal aircraft capacity as 80

seats. Aircrafts with higher capacity would have to operate more non-RCS seats which would not be eligible

for VGF. This may necessitate use of smaller aircrafts, restricting some operational and financial flexibility.

However, the non-RCS seats on an RCS flight would also not be subject to levies from airport operators like

passenger service fee (PSF), user development fee (UDF) and development fee (DF), and also be applicable for

service tax concession (explained in next section).

Regulatory support: The central and state governments are required to extend various policy level, financial

as well as operational support to the airlines for the scheme. In addition to providing VGF, the central

government would levy a concessional 2% excise duty (as against 14%) on ATF and provide abatement of 90%

on the service tax levy on airfares. The participating states are expected to provide land free of cost for the

RCS airports, reduce VAT on ATF to 1% or lower, contribute to 20% of the VGF and provide other support

services free of cost or at concessional rates.

Implications: Expected support from state governments might result in financially weaker states opting out of

the scheme which will reduce scale of operations of the scheme. Political equations of the state and central

governments would also play a role in broad-based acceptance of the scheme by the states.

Cap on number of RCS seats

and frequency of flight to limit

the subsidy requirements

Success of the scheme relies

heavily on regulatory support


Key features and implications: Viability gap funding, Airfare caps

Airport operators’ support: The airport operators (AAI, State Governments, private players or the Ministry of

Defence) should not levy landing and parking charges or any such similar charges on RCS flights. Airfares for all

passengers on an RCS flight will not be subject to any levies such as PSF, UDF, and DF. Further, AAI shall not

levy Terminal Navigation Landing Charges (TNLC) on RCS flights. The Route Navigation and Facilitation Charges

(RNFC) will be levied by AAI on a discounted rate of 42.5% of normal RNFC rates.

Implications: Financial viability of airports exclusively developed for the RCS is questionable considering the

extent of support required to be provided by them. Further, non-RCS airports would lose out on the charges

for RCS flights serving to/from these airports. Additionally, airport operators of major airports will have to

provide slots for RCS flights leading to added congestion.

Viability gap funding – conditions and tenure: The VGF will be funded through Regional Connectivity Fund

(RCF), which will be generated by applying levy on Cat-I and Cat-III routes. The VGF will be provided for a

period of three years from date of commencement of RCS flight, for all committed RCS seats, irrespective of

the occupancy, on completion of each month. In some cases, the VGF may need to be provided for longer

periods to improve sustainability.

Implications: Provision of VGF is a major driver for airlines to operate on RCS routes; however, three year

tenure of VGF might be inadequate for sustainable operations and elongation of this tenure might be required

to build confidence of participating airlines. Non-availability of VGF for cargo operations is another limiting

factor. Further, the impact on PLFs of Cat I and III routes will be dependent on the additional levy for funding

the RCF; though we do not expect it to be very material.

Viability gap funding cap: The VGF for RCS routes would be capped at a pre-decided quantum based on the

stage length of the RCS flights, with reference to a broad representative data set/ typical cost of operations

and estimated revenue potential on a typical RCS route for a particular stage length. The VGF cap would be

indexed to inflation, ATF rates and INR-USD exchange fluctuation based on a specified formula.

Implications: A pre-decided cap on VGF restricts benefits available to airlines in case of higher overheads of

operating an aircraft. Further, non-RCS seats on RCS routes are expected to experience comparatively lower

occupancies. The scheme however does mention that the VGF cap would be higher in case the RCS route

connects two unserved or underserved airports. Indexation of the cap to ATF rates and foreign exchange rates

is a positive as these are the two key uncontrollable costs impacting the financial performance of most

airlines.

Support sought from airport

operators; however lack of

clarity about financial viability

of RCS airports

RCS routes subsidised by levy

on other routes; indexation of

VGF to ATF rates and foreign

current rates is a positive


Key features and implications: Viability gap funding, Airfare caps

Airfare cap: The key highlight of the scheme is pre-decided airfare caps (all inclusive). The airfare caps are

based on various route lengths and would be indexed to inflation i.e. Consumer Price Index-Industrial Workers

(CPI-IW), which would be reviewed on quarterly basis. The specified airfare caps for fixed wing aircraft

currently range from Rs. 1,420 to Rs. 3,500 for various stage lengths ranging from 151 km to 800 km,

respectively. Helicopters will have a cap ranging from Rs. 2,500 to Rs. 5,000 based on flight duration upto 60

minutes.

Implications: The certainty about airfares is one of the key aspects of the scheme, which would drive the

demand for regional connectivity. However, the airlines would need to operate non-RCS seats on an RCS flight,

which are likely to have comparatively higher airfares so as to cover fixed overheads, and hence the PLFs of

RCS flights may be lower, impacting overall commercial viability of operations. Further, the caps are specified

upto 800 km stage lengths; therefore, the longer route RCS flights would have lower benefits and the scheme

would largely be applicable to intra-state flights or a network of such flights.

RCF allocation: In order to achieve balanced growth across all regions, a particular region would be allocated

upto a maximum of 25% of the estimated annual inflows in the RCF. The cap for underserved airports would

be restricted to 30% of estimated annual inflows in order to promote connectivity to unserved airports.

Further, to limit large exposure to any single airline, the VGF for a particular airline would be capped at 25% of

the estimated annual inflows in the RCF and to 50% of the allocation cap for the region.

Implications: The RCF allocation proposed would ensure diversified growth and the caps can be reviewed and

revised after first year of the scheme.

Bidding and evaluation of proposals: The airlines are expected to provide all the business, technical and

financial details along with the networks/routes proposed, number of RCS seats, VGF sought per seat,

maximum airfare for an RCS seat and number of RCS flights per week. The selection of the airline operator

would be based on following criteria in the given priority.

o Lowest VGF requirement per seat

o Maximum number of RCS seats per week

o Lowest maximum airfare for each RCS seat

Also, there would be an option of counter proposals after initial round of bidding and the preferred airline

operator from the initial round would be given a right to match the counter bids.

Implications: The process of bidding would make the scenario more competitive for some of the lucrative

routes, reducing commercial viability of airlines.

Certainty about airfares

through airfare caps

Lower VGF requirements is the

key criteria for selection of

airlines


Key features and implications: Regional connectivity fund allocation, Bidding and evaluation, Exclusivity of operations

Exclusivity of operations: Once selected, an airline operator would be given exclusive rights to operate on the

specified RCS route for three years. In case of a network proposal, the exclusivity of operations shall be

granted to the selected airline operator only on the RCS routes. In certain cases where there are overlapping

RCS routes with more than one operator, there would not be any exclusivity.

Implications: The exclusivity criterion restricts any further competition on the RCS routes for a period of three

years. This would avoid any dent in commercial viability of airlines due to competitive intensity especially

given the demand uncertainty. However, it should be noted that some of the lucrative RCS routes would be

shared by more than one airlines, resulting in loss of exclusivity.

Exit clause: A selected airline operator may cease RCS flight operations for any reason after one year from

commencement of RCS operations. The performance guarantee and the additional performance guarantee

shall be returned provided there is no default by the airline under the contract. The guarantee is liable to be

encashed if the operations are ceased before completion of one year. The selected airline operator under RCS

shall be permitted to assign its rights under the scheme to another airline operator having a valid permit.

Implications: The exit clauses appear to be simplified without any major entanglement; hence those would

not be a major deterrent for participants.

Key benefits for RCS flights over non-RCS flights

RCS flights Non-RCS flights

Excise duty on ATF 2% 14%

VAT on ATF 1% 1-29%

Airport levies (PSF, UDF, DF, parking, landing) Nil Applicable

Terminal Navigation Landing Charges Nil Applicable

Route Navigation and Facilitation Charges 42.5% of normal charges Applicable

Service Tax Abatement of 90% Applicable

Indexation to ATF rates Through VGF No

Indexation to USD-INR rates Through VGF No

Airlines to be awarded

exclusivity of operations;

which however may not be

possible on lucrative routes


Airlines: Opportunity for regional airlines to improve dwindling operating performance

Regional airlines:

o While taking measures to improve regional air connectivity, the scheme provides a good opportunity to

regional airlines to stabilize their troubled operations.

o The regional airlines are currently operating on regional routes which are comparatively less lucrative

than the tier-I routes without any fiscal support. The same is reflected in weak operating and financial

performance of airlines like Air Pegasus, Air Costa, TruJet etc.

o These airlines can use the provisions of RCS to improve the viability of their operations.

National airlines:

o The scheme has a cap of 40 seats as the maximum number of RCS seats on an RCS flight, making ideal

aircraft capacity for an RCS flight to be 80 seats.

o Considering very few of the larger national airlines have small sized aircraft, their participation is

expected to be cautious.

o Nonetheless, the participating airlines can benefit from development of deeper feeder network to their

major routes or filling gaps in their existing network using the RCS routes. Additionally, availability of

benefits to the non-RCS seats on an RCS flight would be an added advantage for national airlines to

operate on these routes. Nevertheless, investments in smaller aircraft by the national airlines would be

made only after vigilance on implementation and success of the scheme and the detailed cost-benefit

analysis.

Private aircraft owners:

o The scheme is restricted for scheduled operators and hence participation of private aircraft owners is

constrained.

o Operational and financial viability of investments in small aircrafts need to be assessed carefully.

Other considerations for airlines

o The airlines are required to undertake complete due diligence of RCS routes on which they plan to

operate. Any geopolitical risk, cost and time overruns pertaining to the selected airports might impact

financial planning of the airline, making the operations commercially unviable.

o Competitive bidding for VGF requirements would restrict profitability of the lucrative RCS routes.

Good opportunity for troubled

regional airlines

National airlines are expected

to be watchful


State Governments: Upfront and ongoing support requirements, which however may reap benefits over the medium to long term

In order to participate in the RCS, the state governments have to extend upfront operational and financial

support to the participating airlines. The investment might reap benefits over the medium to long term through

increased economic activity, higher employment generation, increased tourism and overall growth of the state

economy.

Participation of states primarily depends on their financial position, existing air connectivity infrastructure in

the state, possible long term benefits by way of improvement in the air traffic in the state and political

equations of the state governments.

Upfront support requirements from the state governments include

o Provision of land free of cost and free of encumbrances for the RCS airports

o Multi-modal hinterland connectivity

Additionally, ongoing support requirements include

o 20% contribution to the VGF (10% for North-Eastern routes and union territories)

o Reduction of VAT on ATF to 1% or lower at RCS airports for 10 years

o Free security and fire services at RCS airports

o Concessional electricity, water and other utility services

Willingness of the states to participate is a crucial aspect of the scheme as availability of large number of RCS

airports would in turn translate into increased scale of operations under the scheme, thus increasing the

sustainability over the long term.

Sizeable support from state

governments critical for

success of the scheme


Passengers: The ultimate winner, at a marginal fare increment on major routes

Regional passengers:

o The passengers on regional routes would be the biggest beneficiary of the successful implementation of

the scheme. They would get improved and faster connectivity at affordable costs, which is the key aim of

the scheme.

o Currently, lack of connectivity has restricted economic development of remote regions, which would be

facilitated by this Scheme.

o Increased connectivity on RCS routes would also ensure that going forward, even if the RCS seats (which

would typically be available at cheaper rates) are not available, at least the connectivity requirements

are fulfilled with the non-RCS seats on the same routes.

Tier-I route passengers:

o The airfares on Cat-I and Cat-III routes would attract a levy for generation of RCF.

o Though the levy rates are not disclosed at present, we expect it to be minimal.

o Development of civil aviation industry in the country would strengthen feeder networks on the tier-I

routes and hence improve the competition, connectivity and services on these routes as well.

Passengers on regional routes

and regional economies would

be the key beneficiaries of

successful implementation of

the scheme


Conclusion: Typing up loose ends and building stakeholders confidence would be the key to success

The scheme reiterates strong focus of the central government on providing affordable regional connectivity. The

scheme proposes to use funds generated from the industry to subsidise regional networks, without any major burden

on existing passengers. In addition to the existing RDGs for improving regional connectivity (which mandate airlines to

fly on regional routes), the RCS has laid down an explicit policy and financial support to be provided for deeper reach of

the aviation industry.

The RCS is targeted to benefit passengers if implemented successfully. However, broad based participation of key

stakeholders like airlines and state governments would be critical for success of the scheme. The airlines might be

apprehensive about the adequacy/timeliness of financial support as well as commercial viability of operating non-RCS

seats which are not eligible for any VGF. The scheme, however, provides a good opportunity for regional airlines to

stabilize their troubled operations using the fiscal support being provided. The state governments would however need

clarity on the long term benefits while committing immediate support. Nonetheless, the MoCA has committed

reviewing the provisions of the scheme atleast once every three years in view of the changing market dynamics.

Clarity on some of the areas of the scheme including – extension of tenure for VGF, possible lack of exclusivity on

certain lucrative RCS routes and its commercial implications on airlines, financial viability of other stakeholders like RCS

airports and airport operators, possible operational issues at existing airports in order to serve RCS flights, participation

of non-scheduled operators – would be required for broad-based participation of stakeholders and consequent success

of the scheme.


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