The name Jamaica comes from the country’s earliest inhabitants, and the Taino Arawak word “Xaymaca”, which means “the land of wood of water” due to the nation’s many rivers and

mountainous terrain.

Unfortunately, this landscape also makes the lush tropical paradise highly susceptible to natural disasters, with a hurricane season running from June 1 to November 30. Even without the development of an actual hurricane there can be severe devastation due to flooding and landslides. It has been estimated that approximately US$15 million is spent on repairs to roads damaged by landslides alone and for historical and socio-economic reasons, both rural and urban areas have large squatter settlements that are severely impacted by these environmental hazards. The settlements are usually on precarious pieces of land highly susceptible to flooding or landslides, and due to the harsh economic reality of the inhabitants, they are usually very poorly built structures.

The nature of squatter settlements in Jamaica is tied to the nation’s history of slavery and the socio-economic climate that followed emancipation and apprenticeship in 1838. By 1866 squatting had become institutionalized as a form of land tenure in Jamaica. Furthermore, rural to urban migration, economic difficulty, housing shortages, political exploitation and the availability of idle land have only amplified the squatter community presence in the modern era.

According to the Jamaican Ministry of Transport, Works and Housing, “one quarter of Jamaica’s population (675,000) live in squatter settlements. Estimates also indicate that one in every three urban dwellers live in squatter settlements. Settlements are characterized by lack of/poor sanitation, inadequate physical infrastructure/poor quality housing, impoverished dwellings, high levels of unemployment and underemployment.”

Spatial questions attempting to answer:

What areas are prone to flooding and do vulnerable populations live in or near these areas?

What areas are prone to landslides and do vulnerable populations live in or near these areas?

How far are vulnerable populations from hospitals in the case of emergency during either of the disasters outlined above?

Purpose of Analysis: To determine the High Risk Areas specifically for Vulnerable Populations. Given the poverty, weak infrastructure and political exploitation facing squatter communities, as well as the large percentage of the Jamaican

population they comprise; squatter communities were the

vulnerable population at the center of this analysis.

Establishing the High Risk Areas specifically for

Vulnerable Populations required two elements: an environmental risk analysis related to landslides and flooding, and a human vulnerability analysis related to the population that live in weak infrastructure and their proximity to hospitals in the event of an emergency. To Address the Weak

Infrastructure Population and their Access to Hospitals:

The Kernal Density Tool was used on both the Squatter Housing Data and Hospital Data to demonstrate the density of squatter

communities and hospitals nationwide. The Euclidean Distance Tool was also used on Hospital Data to determine the relative

distance of hospitals. These layers were then re-classified on a scale of 1 –5 using the Reclassify Tool. These reclassified layers were placed into the Raster Calculator to determine Total Human Vulnerability.

To Address the Environmental Risks:

FLOODING

The Euclidean Distance Tool was run on the River Data to determine the relative distance and then reclassified on scale of 1 – 5, from lowest to highest risk. The DEM Elevation Layer was also reclassified on a scale of 1 – 5. (N.B. During DEM reclassification, “Reverse New Values” needed to be used so that the lowest values (-3 meters to 200 meters) would be represented by a 5 demonstrating the extreme risk low elevations pose to increase the likelihood of flooding.) The Reclassified Distance to Rivers layer and the Reclassified DEM layer were then added into the Raster Calculator to obtain the Total Risk of Flooding.

LANDSLIDE

To determine the risk for landslides, the Slope Tool was used on DEM to obtain the danger posed by steep slopes as most landslides occur between 10 – 35 °. Total Environmental Risk

was determined by placing both the ‘Total Risk of Flooding” and the “Reclassified Slope” into the Raster Calculator.

To answer the original and overarching purpose of this analysis i.e. what are the high risk

areas for vulnerable populations; the “Total Human Vulnerability” and “Total Environmental Risk” Layer, were added together using the Raster Calculator. The scores that resulted from this calculation, from lowest to highest demonstrated the areas of Jamaica that posed the least and the most risk to the nation’s most vulnerable citizens. As the layers had been reclassified on a scale of 1 - 5, the 6 factors (distance from rivers, slope degree, elevation, distance from hospitals, concentration of hospitals and squatter communities) produced a risk score range of 6—30.

To provide areas of prioritization for policy

makers, the Zonal Statistics Tool was used to demonstrate the average risk per parish. This argues that rural parishes Portland and St. Thomas are areas of critical concern. While these parishes have fewer squatter communities than Kingston or St. Andrew; the urban centers of the nation, the squatter communities in Portland and St. Thomas are far more vulnerable because they have little to no access to hospitals while living areas that are

extremely susceptible to flooding and landslides due to the mountainous terrain and proximity to rivers. The government needs focus efforts on providing far more hospitals to these areas, as both parishes only have one hospital each, compared to 14 in urban Kingston and St. Andrew.

Data Sources: Mwahaki King

ESRI, GDAM, DIVA-GIS, CARISKA MCM 1009

Trouble in Paradise Natural Disaster Preparation in Jamaica: Looking at Flooding, Landslides and Human Vulnerability

INTRODUCTION

METHODOLOGY

Concentration of Squatter

Communities

Concentration of Hospitals

RESULTS

CONCLUSION/FUTURE RECOMMENDATIONS

Factors 1 Very Low Risk

2 Low Risk

3 Moderate Risk

4 High Risk

5 Very High Risk

Distance to Rivers

> 25 miles 15 - 25 miles 5 - 15 miles 1 - 3 miles < 1 mile

Slope Degree

0 - 2 de-grees

2 - 5 5 - 10 10 - 20 20 - 36

Elevation > 1000 m

750 - 1000 m

500 -750 m 200 - 500 m

< 200 m

Distance to Hospitals

< 0.5 miles 0.5 - 1 mile 1 - 3 miles 4 - 10 miles

> 10 miles

Number of Hospitals

> 0.0742 0.0556 - 0.0742

0.03712 - 0.0556

0.01856 - 0.03712

0 - 0.01856

Number of Squatter Communities

< 0.1548 0.1548 - 0.3097

0.3097 - 0.4645

0.4645 - 0.6194

0.6194 - 0.7743

The High Risk Areas were determined

by the 6 elements outlined in the

factor table. These criteria were

assessed on a scale of 1— 5. As such,

the lowest score, and thus least risky

area for vulnerable populations is a 6

and the highest score and thus most

dangerous area is a 30.

Elevation by Slope Degree

Flooding Risk

Total Environmental Risk from

Flooding and Landslides

PARISH RISK

LEVEL

Manchester, St. Ann, St. Elizabeth, Kingston, St. Catherine

Low

Trelawny, Clarendon, Hanover, St. Andrew

Moderate

Westmoreland, St. James, St. Mary, St. Thomas, Portland

High

Total Human Vulnerability

Average Risk for Vulnerable

Populations, by Parish

Squatter Communities by Parish