Trends, stats and the future of the

international student market

place

Janet Ilieva, PhD

Content

Stats and figures from the international student place: some comparative evidence

Emerging markets

Internationalisation and the challenges it poses: what do we do about them

Global Trends

• According to the OECD (2007) over 2.7 million students enrolled outside their home country in 2005

• Over 120 million students study in Higher Education across the world (UNESCO 2007 and BC estimates)

• Global proportion of all students studying overseas (in relation to the tertiary education in country expansion) has only increased by 2% for the same period

• Students from China estimate more 15% of the total internationally mobile students, (they represent 20% of the non-EU population and 15% of the total international student population in UK).

HE Students Studying Overseas (in millions)

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Source: OECD (2007), Education at a Glance.

Global Market Share

Over half of the students (52%) study in four countries (US, UK, Germany and France). Compared to 2000, this is a decrease from the 56% which these countries used to host

The loss in market share over the past 5 years has been absorbed predominantly by the USA, and to a smaller extent UK and Germany

Time series for some key host countries 1995 - 2006

Key Competitor Countries' Growth Rates

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07

US

UK

Germany

Australia

US and UK:MalaysiaS KoreaThailandIndonesia

China, HKThailandIndonesiaMiddle East

China 13,000India 17%

Nigeria 30%Thailand 10%Middle East &

NA

Mainly China 36% India 45%

Countries prioritisation

•Importance driven by size: any minor changes in demand from a big country would have massive implications for each education provider

•Growth dynamics: strategic importance, set to increase in future

BUT: increased dependency on fewer markets for UK

Country 1998/99 Country 2006/07

Malaysia 12632 China 50020

United States 10981 India 23910

Hong Kong 8289 United States 22245

Singapore 6016 Malaysia 11870

Japan 5686 Nigeria 11150

Norway 4055    

China 4017    

Taiwan 3570    

India 3498    

Total 1998/99 117290 Total non-EU 2006/07 249450

Countries sourcing 50% of the non-EU population in 1998 and 2006

Source: HESA Student Record

Countries sourcing half of the students in UK, US and Australia

USA   UK   Australia 2006

India 83,833 China 50,020 China 45,873

China 67,723 India 23,910 India 25,085

Korea, Republic of 62,392 United States 22,245 Malaysia 14,897

Japan 35,282 Malaysia 11,870    

Taiwan 29,094 Nigeria 11,150    

Grand total 582,984 Total non-EU 249450 Grand total 171,246

    Grand total 376190    

Source: Institute of International Education (2007); HESA Student Record (2008) and Australia Education International (2007).

Emerging markets in UK

Countries growing at a rate higher than the UK average growth rate

Emerging markets Australia

Logarithmic scale

Host countries in changing context

•Major host countries’ growth rates have slowed down

•Diversity of different mode of delivery: increasing importance of trans-national education

•The length of time students study in UK is decreasing with increased popularity of postgraduate courses (up to 1 year)

•Rise of non-English Speaking Countries as education hosts;

•Expanding usage of English as language of instruction beyond the main English speaking countries

The distinction between sending and hosting countries becoming more blurred: increasingly traditional sending countries are becoming host countries: e.g. China, Japan, Malaysia, Singapore and others

•Increased and improved in country provision of education

Competition: increasingly sending countries becoming host countries

China   Japan   Malaysia  

Korea 57504 China 74292 Indonesia 7541

Japan 18363Republic of  Korea 15974 China 7310

United State 11784 Taiwan 4211 Bangladesh 6517

Vietnam 7310 Malaysia 2156 Pakistan 1956

Indonesia 5652 Vietnam 2119 Nigeria 1813

Total 162,695 Total 117,927 Total 44,390

Implications for UK

•Increasingly students are coming to the UK for shorter courses, i.e. PGT degrees (55% of the non-EU students are PG)

•Majority of the students in PG studies are from overseas

• Dependency of wide range of subjects at postgraduate level on overseas students (hence threat on the vitality of these subjects if demand contracts); Highest risk for subjects like Engineering and Technology, Business related subjects, Computer and Mathematical sciences, etc.

•Increased effort and cost of recruitment: currently 54% of the total students have to be recruited on annual bases (this is over 202,000 students each year), in order to maintain 0% growth

Brazil

Major host countries for Brazilian students 2006-07

USA, 7126, 64%

Japan, 316, 3%

Australia, 470, 4%

Germany, 1726, 16%

UK, 1385, 13%

Source: AEI, Statistics Canada, DAAD, IIE, HESA, Dept. of Education NZ, JASSO

Russia

Source: AEI, Statistics Canada, DAAD, IIE, HESA, Dept. of Education NZ, JASSO

Students from Brazil: May Data (various years)

Students from Brazil in Australia 2006 - 2008

-500

500

1,500

2,500

3,500

4,500

5,500

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

ELICOS

VET

Higher Education

Schools

Other

Source: Australia Education International

Further Education

• Slow down (-1%) in 2006 the FE enrolments from international students compared to the previous year.

• EU countries: 12% growth

• Non EU countries: -12% growth

• Decline in the non-EU countries mainly contributed by decline in China and other major sending countries:

• China -20%

• Pakistan -7%

• Japan -3%

• Iran -8%

FE issues:

Decline in China mainly driven by*:• Increase in foundation programmes on offer in China• Expansion of recruitment into Local HE • More competition within Asia• Wider VET offer in competitor countries• Shift in the demand from UG to PG courses

• Highest growth in non-EU countries recorded in:• India 7% (as from this year India is the largest non-EU market)• Libya 44%• Saudi Arabia 41% • Continuous growth in South Korea 9%

*Acknowledgement: based on comments from Jazreel Goh and Nicole de Lalouviere, British Council Beijing.

Emerging FE Markets in UK

FE Emerging Markets

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06

Year

Cou

ntry

's m

arke

t sha

re g

row

th in

UK India

UAENigeria

S. KoreaLibya

S. Arabia

Highest growth marked by India: market share 1.8% in 2002 increased to 10.2% in 2005

Emerging FE Market in Australia

Beyond statistics

•Most current data are at least 1.5 years out of date;

•UK data issues: FE data unreliable (no central record); HE data slower in publishing than other countries (Germany, US, Australia)

•Issue: most of the PGT students reported would have left by the time statistics are made available

•British Council approach:

• Introducing Early reporting scheme through the Education UK Partnership (for HE and FE institutions beyond the partnership)

• Running country specific forecasts in attempt to predict the future of international education in short to mid-term (with the Economist Intelligence Unit)

• On-line system tracking students’ decision making processes and aspirations for overseas study (in partnership with UK Visa and UCAS)

Early reporting project @ Education UK Partnership

Higher Education early reporting is voluntary data collection, based on HESES returns but for international students (based on 1 December marker each year)

•Recognising the need for access to national data on international students much earlier than is currently available through HESA – published up to 18 months after enrolment

•Providing an on-line facility to upload data

•Providing an on-line data mining tool to allow participating institutions access to the data

•Thorough data validation procedures prior data publishing (30 universities have taken part so far)

•FE data collection: in progress

Decisions! Decisions! Decisions!

•Why use the student decision making data

• Verifying our knowledge about the market

• Turning anecdotal evidence into empirical evidence

• Capturing shifts in demand before it is too late

• Insight into the student choices at city level

• Allows on-line tracking of the student choice

HESA 2006-07

Student Decision Making (current)

Source: HESA (2006);Student Decision Making Survey, © British Council

Future vs. Past PGT Demand in China

PGT demand at city level in China (2007 and 2008)

PGT students in Beijing

PGT students in Shanghai

Source: Student Decision Making Survey, © British Council

What does the future hold - forecasting the international student mobility

Project carried out with the Economist Intelligence Unit• The aim of the project was to develop a forecasting tool, which will

produce predictions on international student demand for education in the UK

• The predictions need to be:• country specific (vs. predictions for 140 countries)• Short-term to mid-term (vs. long-term)

• The model prototype was developed for China and then replicated in other major source countries

• An important additional objective was to calculate a price elasticity for the countries where the student mobility will be forecasted (i.e. China) and other country specific parameters

• Allow the user to use the model independently, change parameters and produce scenarios

Structure

Total enrolments model

International students model

Competitor model

Number of Chinese households with sufficient income for sizeable discretionary education spending set to increase strongly…

China – Income range families 2006 US$: >15,001

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Rapidl

y exp

andin

g pot

ential

mar

ket s

ize

…but China faces a rapidly ageing demographic profile with the number of 17-22 year olds expected to peak in the next few years

China – Total population, '000s 17-22 year olds

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

110,000

120,000

130,000

140,000

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2010 represents peak

Households in China

Households in China (as a % of the total households) with children and income > US$15,000

0.00%

0.50%

1.00%

1.50%

2.00%

2.50%

3.00%

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

3. Competitor model

Pooling data from 8 countries:

Relative tuition fees (UK=100)

-

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Australia

Canada

France

Germany

Japan

New Zealand

UK

USA

3. Competitor model

Pooling data from 8 countries:

International trade with China ($ m)

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

AustraliaCanadaFranceGermanyJapanNew ZealandUnited KingdomUnited States

UK Market Share in China: Forecast

Chinese students coming to UK as a % of total students studying abroad

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

The Model