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ABRAHAM GULKOWITZ

abe@gulkowitz.com917-402-9039

2013 issue 9May 12, 2013

Complex Recovery PathsMajor central bank activismand some surprisingly good economic data in the U.S. have lifted equity markets and also helped the credit markets contintheir rally. Central bank policy has been focused on an emergency bailout footing to stave off sudden panic and is also is aimed at stimulating econoactivity. This has involved incentivizing households and businesses to expand and take some more risk. But no new policy initiative is perfect noimplementation nor is it precise in its impact. Some in the markets and even in the Fed itself worry that the massive and unprecedented easing couldcausing its own distortions and perverse side effects. Equally troubling is the reality that massive easing tends to smooth performance in the short run evas the risks take much longer to play out. It has clearly triggered a chancy search for yield that may yet lead to new asset bubbles and financial instabiThere are numerous examples. One is highlighted on the this first page of the PunchLine and later on the credit pages. Bank lending to larger corporahas exploded, growing atrates not seen since the boomthat was central to the great financial collapse. Also, Spanishand Italianbenchmark borrowing coare now at their lowest levels since the last quarter of 2010, as these high-yielding peripheral securities have caught the attention of both domestic ainternational investors. While the liquidity provided bykey central banks -- including the move bythe Bank of J apan to initiate massive monetary easing --likelycontinue suppressing yields, there is a serious argument to be made that the rallies have moved beyond fundamentals This increases the likelihoof moresurprises, not less

US and EU Political Systems Struggling to Deal With 'New Realities'

The euro zones central bank did as little as

expected, a 25 basis point drop in its main rate,

to 0.5 percent. A lack of unanimity suggests it

wont cut more soon, or start any bold

initiatives. The ECB looks too divided to wage a

tougher fight against a sinking economy.

ECB Moves Markets, Not Economy

Apri l Jobs Stronger Than Expected

but Recovery 'Very, Very SlowUS employment growth beats

expectations with increase of 165K

jobs in April, unemployment rate falls

to 7.5%

Emerging Asian neighbors are bracing for a surge in

capital flows after Japan's unprecedented bid to pump

up its long-moribund economy but most believe the

upside of cheap cash and a stronger Japanese

economy outweighs the risks.

FranceDeclaresAusterityOverasGermanyOffersWiggleRoom

OnlineRetailersCallInternSalesTaxa'Nightmare'

Corporatebondpricesrisetonew2013peak;YieldsinHYcontinuetoslide

MassiveJapaneseRallyCouldEndinTears

JapanTrashesYenEmerging again as a competitive exporter

Greece's youth unemployment hits 60% as

recession continues to cripple the country

Corporate earnings deserve high marks. Howeve

if you go to the revenue side, it was not a goo

quarter. Less than half (48%) of the companie

beat sales expectations and it looks like we'r

going to finish with no growth for the quarter

Bernanke admits the Fed islooking at asset markets closelyfor signs of excessive risk taking

Relentless quantitative easing is driving markets to extremes. Central banks w

more GDP growth. But they also get extra low yields, high commodity and a

prices, hurting many consumers. They also get markets which rely on even m

easy money - and which could fumble at some point...

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May 12, 2013

In This Issue

Headlines and data appearing in The Punch Line came from widely available publications including

national and international newspapers, trade journals, economic and industrial bulletins and news websites.

You Cant Handle the Truth (

The Likelihood of Unlikely Events... (

Households?Lots of recovery signals but far off the normal recovery path. Numerous quest

remain for a once free-spending sector whose housing and mortgage finance

machinery have not just collapsed but are severely damagedThe previous

cannot and should not be recreated But the world aches for a vibrant U.S.

consumer with job growth (p

A Closer Look (p

Data Detective (p

Pumping iron (p

Credit Matters (p

Credit Concerns (p

Deal or No Deal in Europe (p

The DNA of Business (p

Some More Industry Specs (p

Real Estate and Construct ion (p

Will L ife Ever be the Same? (p

Complex Recovery PathsMajor central bank activism and some surprisingly good economic data in theU.S. have lifted equity markets and also helped the credit markets continue theirrally. Central bank policy has been focused on an emergency bailout footing tostave off sudden panic and is also is aimed at stimulating economic activity. Thishas involved incentivizing households and businesses to expand and take somemore risk. But no new policy initiative is perfect not in implementation nor is itprecise in its impact. Some in the markets and even in the Fed itself worry thatthe massive and unprecedented easing could be causing its own distortions andperverse side effects. It has clearly triggered a chancy search for yield that mayyet lead to new asset bubbles and financial instability. There are numerousexamples. One is highlighted on the this first page of the PunchLine and later onthe credit pages. Bank lending to larger corporates has exploded, growing atrates not seen since the boom that was central to the great financial collapse.Also, Spanish and Italian benchmark borrowing costs are now at their lowest

levels since the last quarter of 2010, as these high-yielding peripheral securitieshave caught the attentionof bothdomestic and international investors. While theliquidity provided bykeycentral banks -- includingthe move bythe Bank of J apanto initiate massivemonetaryeasing -- will likelycontinue suppressing yields, thereis a serious argument to be made that the rallies have moved beyondfundamentals This increases the likelihoodof more surprises,notless

(pg 1)

In This Issue (pg 2)

Engines of GrowthThere will be far-reaching repercussions from this weak recovery path combined

with the awkward easing easing policy of central banks. But what choice is

there? And lets not forget that the challenges are clearly an international affair,

rife with politics and therefore difficult to resolve (pg 3)

New Directions (pg 4)

The New Geography of Business (pg 5)

U.S. Break Out Potential (pg 6)

The Return to Normal (pg 7)

Contact information:

Abraham Gulkowitz

phone: 917-402-9039 email: abe@gulkowitz.com

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Engine Drivers

Eurozone Economic Confidence Falls

More Than ForecastEurozone economic confidence declined more than expected in

April with broad-based contraction across sectors excluding

consumer sentiment, survey data showed

US consumer spending rises,

The private sector comes to U.S. economy's rescue

Europe's Manufacturers Face a TestEurope's industrialists are steeling themselves for a difficult

six months, forecasting at best a stabilization in their business,

and at worst a further drop in sales.

Volumes on the Asia-Europe container trade sllid nearly 10% year on year in March, because of demand

weakness in Europe, resulting in volumes for the quarter sinking into negative territory. According to the

latest data from Container Trades Statistics, volumes from Asia to northern Europe declined 9.7% year on yearin March to 698,052teu. As a result, volumes for the first quarter on the trade slipped 2.8% to 2.1 million

teu. Until March, volume growth on the trade had been relatively stable, increasing 2.2% year on year in

January and declining 0.6% in February.

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New Directions

US Rate On 15-year Mortgage

Falls To New Record At 2.56 Pct.

China Export Gains Spur Renewed Skepticism of FigureChinas export growth unexpectedly accelerated in April ev

as shipments to the U.S. and Europe fell, spurring Bank

America Corp. and Mizuho Securities Co. analysts to say tfigures were inflated by fake reports. The 14.7 perce

increase, reported by the General Administration of Customs

Beijing today, was led by a 57.2 percent jump in shipments

Hong Kong that highlighted suspicions of false transactio

used to mask capital flows into China. A customs spokesm

said last month that the agency would investigate t

extraordinary gain in trade with Hong Kong. The repdeepens skepticism on the reliability of trade data from t

worlds largest exporting nation, with Royal Bank of Scotla

Group Plc saying export gains may be overstated by

percentage points. Regulators announced a crackdown th

week on companies using trade reports to disguise speculati

money inflows chasing a yuan thats already exceeded la

years gains against the dollar.

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The New Geography of Business

Massive Shift of Wealth The cr eat ion of

extraordinary personal wealth in China coupled with fears

of confiscation and social instability has caused what is

probably the greatest transfer of assets abroad in

China's history. A recent study by Boston Consulting

Group (BCG) and China Construction Bank (CCB) estimated

that wealthy Chinese households hold around 2.8 trillion

renminbi (453 billion dollars) in offshore assets,

equivalent to 3% of China's 2011 GDP. Chinese accounted

for 9.1 billion dollars of purchases of US homes in the

last financial year, the secondlargest source country

after Canada

Urban violence is a persistent problem in Latin America,with cities such as San Pedro Sula, Acapulco and Caracas

notorious for their high rates of crime. This is owing to a

combination of factors including political instability, the

growing presence of powerful criminal groups and the

inability of the security forces to crack down on crime. India Cuts Policy RateThe Reserve Bank of India lowered its policy interest

rate by a quarter of a percentage point to 7.25%, but

said the inflation risk leaves it "little" space for

further easing.

The European Commission Friday suggested granting more

time to some European countries to adjust their finances afterissuing fresh forecasts pointing to a delayed economic

recovery amid dire jobs conditions and drying-up of credit to

households and businesses.

Australia is set to become the world's largest liquefied natural gas (LNG)

producer. Japan, the world's largest LNG importer, is i ts largest market by

far. The LNG 17 Conference in Houston last month highlighted the

challenges facing Australian producers and Japanese buyers. Cost escalation

is jeopardizing projects in Australia, where huge reserves are being

developed for export to the strongly growing Asian market. Meanwhile,

there were repeated calls for new pricing mechanisms from Japan, whose

electricity prices were described as spiraling out of control.

Foreign investment in Italian holiday properties is rising as Germans, Britons and

Russians take advantage of a market where locals are struggling to purchase even

a first home. Residential sales in the country dropped almost 26 percent last yearamid a plunge in mortgage lending, almost two years of recession, and

uncertainty surrounding a new tax on primary residences.

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U.S. Breakout Potential

North Dakota provides about 11% of the U.S. oil

production and the Bakken accounts for 40% of

the nations increase in domestic oil production

in recent years.

The Bakken oil boom has led to strong growth in

employment and record low unemployment rates in

that region. Tight labor markets and high wages

in the Bakken have also given rise to countless

anecdotes from business owners complaining of

difficulty finding qualified workers and having

to pay higher wages to keep them.

Geopolitics Raised in Gas DebateThe debate over whether the U.S. should export some

of its natural-gas bonanza is increasingly shaped bygeopolitical implications.

Proponents of U.S. gas exports, including current and

former lawmakers, say that exporting some U.S. gas

would bolster America's relations with allies in Europe

and Asia, weaken the hold of major energy producers

such as Russia and help further isolate Iran. Critics

worry any strategic advantage would be outweighed by

eroding the benefit cheap energy offers U.S. industry at

home.

'Sold in the USA' Stocks Beating S&P 500 Index

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The Return to Normal ?

U.S. auto lenders will likely report further weakening in asset quality metrics this y

driven mainly by lower used car values, a loosening of underwriting terms and fur

seasoning of loan portfolios, according to Fitch. Credit losses and delinquency

increased on a year-over-year basis for all major auto lenders in the first quarter, and

expect that trend to continue as asset quality metrics retreat from historically strong le

reported in 2012. For Fitch-rated issuers, average credit losses increased 16 bps year-o

year in 1Q'13, and delinquencies were 67 bps higher than the year-earlier quarter.

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You Cant Handle the TruthLet'sTaketheConoutofEconomics

Demographics Japan

Japan's population fell by 284,000 in the year

to October 2012, the largest decrease in both

number and rate since comparable data began

in 1950. Meanwhile, the population aged 65

years and above rose by 1.04 million to

exceed 30 million for the first time and

account for 24.1% of the total. The population

aged 14 years and below fell to a record low

of 13%. Japan has among the world's longest

life expectancies; its fertility rate (the

expected number of births over a lifetime) is

among lowest. This combination means that

its population is growing older and shrinking.

Corruption complicates security at Sochi OlympicsPresident Vladimir Putin has staked his reputation on the 2014

Winter Olympics, scheduled to take place in Sochi, a city on the

Black Sea coast, near the Abkhazia border. As preparations for the

games enter the home stretch, the Russian government has

intensified efforts to ensure security at the event. The threat of

terrorism at international sporting events has been highlighted by

the recent bombing at the Boston Marathon. The ethnic and

religious background of the Boston marathon bombing suspects hasintensified fears of a similar attack in Sochi and the possibility that

the Boston bombing will be used for a further crackdown on

minority populations, primarily in the North Caucasus.

The chart illustrates why the bulls are running in the lo

market. For one, the average price of S&P/LSTA Index loreached a 6.5year high of 98.39 on April 30, up from 98.1

month earlier and 96.79 at the end of 2012. Moreover, whTXU is excluded, the average Index price is within strik

distance of par, at 99.29 at the end of April.

World Corruption Professional services firm

Ernst & Young published its 12th annual fraud

survey on May 7. Known for its large global

sample and methodological rigour, the survey

provides important insight into the perceptions

of business executives regarding corruption,

fraud and other types of misconduct. This

year's results suggest that the pressures of

economic downturn make executives more

inclined to consider corruption and fraud as

acceptable business practices. Despite the

increasingly tough enforcement of anti-bribery

laws, some executives continue to regardcorruption as the only way to operate in

certain geographical and sectoral contexts.

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The Likelihood of Unlikely Events

The U.S. central bank is sticking with loose

monetary policy and hefty asset purchases. But

with stocks at record levels and home prices up

9.4 pct in a year, asset values are heading higher

even if growth isnt. The Fed needs to counter

bubbles as well as economic sluggishness.

The tech giant Apple sold 30year paper with a

coupon under 4 pct. Markets have also seen asurge in dividend recaps, PIK toggles and other

throwbacks to the precrisis leverage boom. One

culprit is central banks sucking supply andsquashing rates. Such distortions usually end

badly.

Fears over the sustainability of government debt have

powered the political drive towards contractionary

fiscal policy, despite tepid global demand, in the

OECD. Yet a key empirical justification for this effort

appears to have been discredited by a graduate student

in recent published work, reigniting the debate over

fiscal policy.

Rising US government revenue from tax collectionsand bailout paybacks are shrinking the federal deficit

faster than expected, delaying the point when the

government will reach the so-called debt ceiling.

IMF cites current account concerns in Latin America

A de ca de o f z er o or lo w g ro wt h

Europe w oul d w ei gh o n m os t o f

continent's corporate sector, but scale of the impact would

significantly, Fitch Ratings says

scenario analysis of the poten

winners and losers from a Japans

lo st d ec ad e pu ts u til it ie s

telecom companies among those most

risk, while the gaming sector c

benefit from deregulation

go ve rnm en ts s ea rc h f or w ay s

increase tax revenues.

Spanish and Italian benchm

borrowing costs are now at their low

levels since the last quarter of 2010

the high-yielding peripheral bon

have caught the attention of b

domestic and international investo

While the liquidity provided by

central banks -- including

announcement by the Bank of Jap

(BoJ) on April 4 of aggressive monet

easing -- will likely contin

suppressing yields in other regio

some investors believe the Europ

rally is overdone. This increases scope for at least a pause in tar

markets -- and even a serio

correction.

The Next Pandemic: Not if, but When

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Households Brave New World

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A Closer Look

US consumer credit rose by $8.0 billion in March following an increase

of $18.6 billion in February. Economists had expected credit to increase

by $15.0 billion. While non-revolving credit such as student loans and

car loans rose by $9.7 billion, the increase was partly offset by a $1.7

billion drop in revolving credit, which largely reflects credit card debt.

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Data Detective

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Pumping Iron - Old Economy

New Challenges

Auto Sales Hauled Higher by Pickup TrucksDetroit 3 gain market share in April on strength of pickups, crossovers

Highway construction through the first two

months of this year was up 2.4% from 2012's

level, according to the U.S. Dept. of

Commerce's construction put-in-place data for

February. Combined with higher oil prices,

that extra demand has helped to push ENR's

price for PG-58 asphalt paving oil up 1.1%

this month and 6.6% above a year ago.

J apanese Car Makers Lose Their Midsize EdgeFord Fusion, Hyundai Sonata, VW Passat, Others Pose Real

Challenge After Closing Quality Gap

General Motors reported sales growth in China accelerated lamonth while Toyota Motor Corp.'s deliveries continued to lag. GM

sales climbed 15 percent to 261,870 units in April, according to figure

released today by the carmaker. Toyota reported sales fell 6.5 percen

to 76,400 units, the ninth drop in 10 months. GM's sales of Buick an

Chevrolet vehicles rose more than 20 percent as the company seeks to

keep its lead in China among foreign automakers for a ninth straigh

year. That's at the expense of Japanese automakers who are still copin

with the fallout of a territorial dispute that flared in September.

GM Sinks $1.3 Billion Into Chinese Cadillac Factory

Iron Ore Seen Dropping by BHP as Supply Growth Tops Demand

Global iron ore supplies will expand faster than demand over the lon

term, lowering prices and reducing volatility of the raw material use

to make steel, according to BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP), the largesmining company. New seaborne cargoes will replace more expensiv

output, mainly in China, Alan Chirgwin, general manager of iron or

marketing, told a conference in Singapore today. He didnt give pric

forecasts or define long term. China is the worlds largest buyer of th

biggest seaborne cargo after crude oil.

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Credit Matters-Know Risk

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Credit Concerns

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Deal or No Deal in Europe?

Portugal's prime minister says he plans to raise

retirement age to 66 from 65 and lay off so

30,000 government workers in measures that aim

save 4.8 billion euros ($6.3 billion) over the n

three years. Pedro Passos Coelho said in a televi

address to the nation that the new measures

needed to ensure Portugal won't require anot

bailout. Portugal got a 78 billion euro rescue

2011 after overspending, heavy debts and w

growth left it close to bankruptcy amid

eurozone's financial crisis.

Poland Cuts Interest Rates to Record Amid Lack of RecovePolands central bank cut its benchmark interest rate to a record low a

European Unions largest eastern economy struggles with slowing growth.

Narodowy Bank Polski lowered the seven-day reference rate by a quarter-poin

percent. Policy makers resumed reductions after a pause last month as in

slowed to its weakest in more than six years and manufacturing shrank the m

45 months in April. While the reduction in borrowing costs shouldnt be seen

start of a new round of monetary easing, a further cut or unchanged rate

possible when policy makers meet next, Governor Marek Belka said

Is the s lide in auto sector bot toming out?Car sales rose in Germany and Spain last mont

adding to signs that Europe's austeritydrive

auto slump could soon bottom out. Spanish c

sales increased 11 percent while registratio

in Germ any , t he regi on 's bi gge st m ark et

advanced 4 percent for the first gain in s

months, national industry body data showed o

Friday. The numbers build on data showing th

th e d rop in car sal es i n Fra nce slowed to

pe rce nt in April fr om a 16 pe rce nt f all i

March. In Italy, where sales fell 11 perce

last month, there was cautious optimism tha

political uncertainty ended.

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May 12, 2013

The DNA of BusinessWorkouts to Define Recovery

Poker devotees will soon be able to skip the smoky casino

and legally gamble their dollars away on the couch - at least

in the state of Nevada. A Las Vegas-based social gambling

company is expected to launch the first legal, real-money

poker website in the United States. The site, run by

Ultimate Gaming, will accept wagers only from players in

Nevada for now, but likely represents the shape of things to

come for gamblers across the country. Internet poker, never

fully legal, has been strictly outlawed since 2011, when the

Department of Justice seized the domain names of the

largest offshore sites catering to U.S. customers and

blacked them out.

Apple sets 6-part deal to establish funding yield curveApple today filed to offer an SECregistered, sixpart

benchmark transaction intended to establish a bona fide

yield curve for the highprofile, but historically debt

av er se bo rr ow er, a s it em ba rk s on an ag gr es siv e

shareholderreturn plan. The total bondoffering size hasyet to be determined, but speculation over the last week

has leaned toward an historic debut amount. On April

23, Apple officials said on the debtfree companys

earnings call that we will access the U.S. debt markets

over time, as it prepares to return roughly $100 billion

to shareholders through calendaryear 2015. The plan is

expected to weigh on domestically domiciled cash

balances, as the company resists repatriating material

amounts of offshore cash due to tax implications.

Regulators Scruti nize Auto Lenders Over Add -OnsThe Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has issuedsubpoenas to U.S. auto lenders over the sale of extendedwarranties and other financial products, expanding a civilprobe thatcould slowthe booming car-loan industry.

Iron Man is a bigger golden boy than ever with a $175.3

million opening weekend at the domestic box office forthe superhero's latest sequel. According to studio

estimates Sunday, "Iron Man 3" had the second-biggest

debut ever, behind the $207.4 million start last year for

"The Avengers," which teamed him with other Marvel

Comics heroes. Opening a week earlier overseas, "Iron

Man 3" has hauled in $504.8 million internationally,

giving the blockbuster a worldwide total of $680.1

million.

The summer box office season was jump-started by

Iron Man 3 and its super(hero)-sized opening (2ndbest all-time). While this is a healthy sign for the box

office, the industry top 12 was still down ~13% fromlast year when The Avengers was tops with a

record-breaking $207.4mm bow. YTD revenues and

attendance are both tracking down 11%.

Home prices in US metropolitan areas saw

their biggest year-over-year gains in more

than seven years in the first quarter, evidence

that the housing recovery is spreading across

the nation.

China Faces Fall in Factory Prices

A sharp fall in factory pricesthe 14th consecutive monthly

declinesignals further trouble for a Chinese economy already facingmounting debt and slowing growth.Producer pricesa measure of prices of goods before they reach consumers

dropped 2.4% in April, the sharpest decline since October, paced by particularly

steep falls in the metals and chemicals sectors. That could add to concerns about

China's slowdown in growth, say economists, because falling producer prices make it

tougher for makers of industrial goods and commodities to make profits, pay off their

debts and pay their suppliers on time. Part of a big surge in Chinese lending has been

used to refinance debt or pay off interest of companies burdened by overcapacity

Citrus Disease With No C

Is Ravaging Florida Grov

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May 12, 2013

Some Industry Specs

Small investors are borrowing against their portfolios at a rapid

clip, reaching levels of debt not seen since the financial crisis.

U.S.retailerscontinuedtobestymiedbycoolweatherinApril,leadingtogenerally

lukewarmsamestoresalesforthemonth

Cutting Student Debt

The White House proposes that the government forgive billions of

dollars in student debt, cheering student advocates, but critics say it

would encourage students to borrow too much and stick taxpayers

with the bill.

20CITYSurvey MaterialsCosts CONSTRUCTION

1913

=

100

May

2013Source:ENR

IndexValue %changeMonth %changeYear

Materials 2976.14 +0.8 +2.0

CEMENT$/TON 109.91 0.0 +2.3

STEEL$/CWT 49.95 +0.8 0.9

LUMBER$/MBF 434.26 +1.0 +10.5

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May 12, 2013

Real Estate and Construction Outlook

Congress Looks at REIT Tax Exemptio

A powerful congressional committee

examining the tax exemption that re

estate investment trusts have enjoyed

decades as part of its comprehens

review of the tax code

More than 3 million square feet of vacant office space is slate

open next year at 1 World Trade Center and the neighboring to

under construction, 4 WTC. And another 2 million square fee

on the drawing board at 3 WTC, whose construction is stalle

seven stories for lack of commercial tenants

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Will Life Ever Be the Same?

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