topical study #6: updated charts

Topical Study #6:Updated Charts

Yardeni Research, Inc.

December 2, 2021

Dr. Edward Yardeni516-972-7683

[email protected]

Mali Quintana480-664-1333

[email protected]

Please visit our sites atwww.yardeni.comblog.yardeni.com

thinking outside the box

74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

-10

0

10

20

30

Nov

NFIB SMALL BUSINESS SURVEY: EARNINGS & EMPLOYMENT PLANS(12-month average, percent)

Oct

Earnings Over Past 3 Months*(higher minus lower)

Expecting toIncrease Employment*(next 3 months)

* First month of every quarter from 1974 to 1986, then 12-month average.Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: National Federation of Independent Business.

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Figure 1.

74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24-45

-30

-15

0

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20

30

40

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NFIB SMALL BUSINESS SURVEY: EARNINGS & CAPITAL SPENDING PLANS(12-month average, percent)

OctOct

Earnings Over Past 3 Months* (higher minus lower)

Capital Spending Plans* (next 3 to 6 months)

* First month of every quarter from 1974 to 1986, then 12-month average.Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: National Federation of Independent Business.

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Figure 2.

Topical Study #6: Updated Charts

Page 1 / December 2, 2021 / Topical Study #6: Updated Charts www.yardeni.com


48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 2610

510

1010

1510

201025103010

30

50

70

90

110

CORPORATE PROFITS AFTER-TAX vsPAYROLL EMPLOYMENT EX GOVERNMENT

(ratio scale)

OctQ3

Payroll EmploymentEx Government Employment(millions, sa)

Corporate Profits After-TaxReported to IRS*(billion dollars, saar)

* Excluding Inventory Valuation Adjustment and Capital Consumption Adjustment.Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Bureau of Economic Analysis.

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Figure 3.

86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 2410

50

90

130

170

210

250

10

50

90

130

170

210

250

S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE: FORWARD & ACTUAL(I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv)

(dollars per share, ratio scale)

Q311/25

S&P 500 Earnings Per Share

Operating** (4Q sum) (198.31)Forward* (220.82)

* Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next year. Monthly through March 1994, then weekly.** From S&P until Q4-1993, then from I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

yardeni.com

Figure 4.




80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24-90

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22

S&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS & AGGREGATE WEEKLY HOURS(yearly percent change)

Sep

Aggregate Weekly Hours**

S&P 500 Forward Earnings*

* Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current year and next year.** Production and nonsupervisory employees.

Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

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Figure 5.

88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24-40

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S&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS & REAL CAPITAL SPENDING(yearly percent change)

Q3

Oct

Real Capital Spending**Forward Earnings*

** Nonresidential fixed investment in real GDP.* Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next year. Monthly through March 1994, weekly thereafter.

Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

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Figure 6.




48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 2410

410

810

1210

16102010241028103210

10

410

810

1210

16102010241028103210

CORPORATE PROFITS PRE-TAX(billion dollars, saar, ratio scale)

Q3

NIPA Profits Pre-Tax

Book Profits*Cash-Flow Profits**

* Tax-accounting basis as reported to IRS.** Book profits including Inventory Valuation Adjustment (IVA) and Capital Consumption Adjustment (CCAdj), which restate the historical cost basis

used in profits tax accounting for inventory withdrawals and depreciation to the current cost measures used in GDP.Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.

yardeni.com

Figure 7.

-400

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0

100

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100

200

INVENTORY VALUATION ADJUSTMENT*(billion dollars, saar)

Q3

70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24-250

-150

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50

150

250

350

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50

150

250

350

CAPITAL CONSUMPTION ADJUSTMENT*(billion dollars, saar)

Q3

* Inventory Valuation Adjustment (IVA) and Capital Consumption Adjustment (CCAdj) are used to restate the historical cost basis used in profits taxaccounting for inventory withdrawals and depreciation to the current cost measures used in GDP.Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.

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Figure 8.




2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024.4

.9

1.4

1.9

2.4

2.9

3.4

3.9

4.44.9

.4

.9

1.4

1.9

2.4

2.9

3.4

3.9

4.44.9

CORPORATE PROFITS AFTER-TAX*vs S&P 500 STOCK PRICE INDEX

(ratio scale)

Q2

Sep

NIPA Book Profits After-Tax*(trillion dollars, saar)

S&P 500 Stock Price Index

* After-tax book profits on tax-accounting basis as reported to IRS.Note: Shaded red areas are S&P 500 bear market declines of 20% or more. Yellow areas show bull markets.Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Standard & Poor’s.

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Figure 9.

48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 262

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CORPORATE PROFIT MARGINS IN GDP(after-tax profits as a percent of nominal GDP)

Q3

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After-Tax Profit MarginsUsing Book Profits* (11.8)Using Cash-Flow Profits** (11.0)

* Tax-accounting basis as reported to IRS.** Book profits including Inventory Valuation Adjustment (IVA) and Capital Consumption Adjustment (CCAdj), which restate the historical cost basis

used in profits tax accounting for inventory withdrawals and depreciation to the current cost measures used in GDP.Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.

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Figure 10.




93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 245

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65

75

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65

75

S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE (I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv)(dollars, quarterly, nsa, ratio scale)

Q3

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Latest (53.82)

Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

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Figure 11.

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24-50

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0

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100

150

S&P 500 AGGREGATE OPERATING INCOME vsS&P 500 OPERATING INCOME PER SHARE(yearly percent change in 4-quarter average)

Q2

S&P 500 Operating IncomeAggregate* (42.3)Per Share (26.1)

* Aggregate earnings is derived by multiplying S&P 500 earnings per share by the S&P 500 divisor for each quarter.Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv and Standard & Poor’s.

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Figure 12.




1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-6

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S&P 500 AGGREGATE OPERATING INCOMEvs S&P 500 OPERATING INCOME PER SHARE

(spread in yearly percent change in 4-quarter average)

2020

Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv and Standard & Poor’s.

yardeni.com

Figure 13.

70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24-1

0

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1

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Q3

CORPORATE PROFITS AFTER-TAX:NIPA vs S&P 500*

(trillion dollars, quarterly)

Q3

Profits After-TaxNIPA Book Profits* (saar)S&P 500 Aggregate Income**(annualized x 4)

* Tax-accounting basis as reported to IRS.** After-tax reported earnings. Financial-accounting basis as reported to shareholders, credit agencies, and the SEC. Aggregate earnings is derived by

multiplying S&P 500 earnings per share by the S&P 500 divisor for each quarter.Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Standard & Poor’s.

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Figure 14.




48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 242

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S&P 500 OPERATING PROFIT MARGIN (I/B/E/S data)& AFTER-TAX CORPORATE PROFIT MARGIN

(without IVA & CCAdj)

Corporate Profits After-Tax*(as a percent of nominal GDP)

(blue line)

Q3

S&P 500 Operating Profit MarginUsing I/B/E/S Earnings**(percent, quarterly, nsa)

(red line)

Q3

Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.

* After-tax profits as reported to IRS excluding Inventory Valuation Adjustment (IVA) and Capital Consumption Adjustment (CCAdj), which restate thehistorical cost basis used in profits tax accounting for inventory withdrawals and depreciation to the current cost measures used in GDP.

** Operating Profit Margin derived using revenues from S&P and earnings from I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Source: Standard & Poor’s, Bureau of Economic Analysis, and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

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Figure 15.

48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 267.5

8.5

9.5

10.5

11.5

12.5

13.5

14.5

15.5

16.5

7.5

8.5

9.5

10.5

11.5

12.5

13.5

14.5

15.5

16.5

NATIONAL INCOME SHARE:CORPORATE PROFITS FROM CURRENT PRODUCTION PRE-TAX*

(as percent of National Income)

Q3National Income Share

Corporate Profitsfrom Current Production (14.6)

* Book profits including Inventory Valuation Adjustment (IVA) and Capital Consumption Adjustment (CCAdj), which restate the historical cost basisused in profits tax accounting for inventory withdrawals and depreciation to the current cost measures used in GDP.Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.

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Figure 16.




48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 2658

60

62

64

66

68

70

58

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62

64

66

68

70

NATIONAL INCOME SHARE:COMPENSATION OF ALL EMPLOYEES (PRE-TAX)


Q3

Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.

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Figure 17.

94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 240

1

2

3

0

1

2

3

Q3

CORPORATE BOOK PROFITS PRE-TAX vsS&P 500 AGGREGATE REPORTED INCOME PRE-TAX*

(trillion dollars, 4-quarter sums)

Q1

Profits Pre-Tax

S&P 500 AggregateReported Income (1.4)

NIPA Book Profits** (2.7)

** Excluding Inventory Valuation Adjustment (IVA) and Capital Consumption Adjustment (CCAdj), which restate the historical cost basis used in profitstax accounting for inventory withdrawals and depreciation to the current cost measures used in GDP.

* Using four-quarter sums of both S&P 500 aggregate pre-tax reported net income and corporate pre-tax book profits.

Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and S&P Dow Jones Indices.

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Figure 18.




94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 2420

40

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100

120

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60

80

100

120

S&P 500 AGGREGATE REPORTED INCOME PRE-TAXDIVIDED BY CORPORATE BOOK PROFITS PRE-TAX*(percent, using 4-quarter averages of the two series)

Q1

Latest (59.0)

* Excluding Inventory Valuation Adjustment (IVA) and Capital Consumption Adjustment (CCAdj), which restate the historical cost basis used in profitstax accounting for inventory withdrawals and depreciation to the current cost measures used in GDP.Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and S&P Dow Jones Indices.

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Figure 19.

80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 240

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NUMBER OF TAX RETURNS FILEDBY CORPORATIONS

(millions)

2020

2020

2020

Number of ReturnsTotal Corporations (6.8)

C Corporations (1.8)S Corporations* (5.0)

* S corporations do not pay corporate taxes. Instead, their profits are paid and taxed as dividends to their shareholders.Source: Internal Revenue Service.

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Figure 20.




48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 2610

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US CORPORATE PROFITS TAX RATES(percent)

Q3

2020

Corporate Tax Rates

Effective NIPA* (12.6)Statutory (21.0)

* Pretax profits reported to the IRS minus after-tax corporate profits divided by pretax profits. Using four-quarter averages.Pre-tax profits includes the profits of S corporations, which are taxed as personal income. Includes "profits" of the Federal Reserve System, which aresent back to the US Treasury. After-tax profits reflects taxes paid to all domestic and foreign taxing agencies.Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and US Treasury.

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Figure 21.

94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 2410

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55

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50

55

US CORPORATE PROFITS TAX RATES(percent)

2021

Q2

Corporate Tax RatesStatutory (21.0)Effective S&P 500* (18.7)

* Includes US federal taxes and taxes collected by other domestic and foreign taxing authorities. Derived from S&P Analyst Handbook, where tax rateis income tax as percentage of pre-tax income.Source: Internal Revenue Service and Standard & Poor’s.

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Figure 22.




90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24.1

.3

.5

.7

.9

1.1

1.3

1.51.7

.1

.3

.5

.7

.9

1.1

1.3

1.51.7

DIVIDENDS IN CORPORATE PROFITS (trillion dollars, ratio scale) Q2

Aug

DividendsAll Corporations(saar)Personal Dividend Income*(12-month sum)

* Included in personal income.Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.

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Figure 23.

91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24.0

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1.0

1.5

.0

.5

1.0

1.5

2017

DIVIDENDS IN CORPORATE PROFITS(trillion dollars, annual) 2020

2020

Dividends Paid By:All Corporations (BEA data)S Corporations* (IRS data)S&P 500 (S&P data)

* S corporations do not pay corporate taxes. Instead, their profits are paid and taxed as dividends to their shareholders.Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and IRS Statistics of Income.

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Figure 24.




91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 2415

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DIVIDENDS PAID BY S&P 500vs S CORPORATIONS

(as a percent of total corporate dividends)

2020

2017

Share of Dividends Paid:

S&P 500 (35.1)S Corporations* (40.6)

* S corporations do not pay corporate taxes. Instead, their profits are paid and taxed as dividends to their shareholders.Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and IRS Statistics of Income.

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Figure 25.

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017.3

.8

1.3

1.8

2.3

2.8

3.3

.3

.8

1.3

1.8

2.3

2.8

3.3

2.00 2.012.12

2.06 2.022.12

PROFITS BEFORE TAX WITH IVA & CCADJ:TOTAL vs C & S CORPORATIONS

(trillion dollars, annual)

1.453 1.457 1.509

1.369 1.324 1.368

0.378 0.369 0.4090.471 0.470 0.513

Total

C Corporation

S Corporation

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.

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Figure 26.




2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 201726

28

30

32

34

36

26

28

30

32

34

36

27.227.5

28.8

33.6

34.6

35.3PROFITS BEFORE TAX WITH IVA & CCADJ:S CORPORATIONS’ SHARE OF TOTAL

(percent, annual)


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Figure 27.

46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 2620

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DIVIDENDS PAID BY S&P 500*(as a percent of S&P 500 after-tax aggregate operating earnings)

Q3

Capped at 90% due to extreme values.

* Four-quarter trailing dividends per share divided by four-quarter trailing reported earnings.Source: Standard & Poor’s.

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Figure 28.




92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24.0

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3.0

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1.0

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2020

S CORPORATE PROFITS FROM CURRENT PRODUCTIONvs EXCLUDING S CORPORATION DIVIDENDS

(trillion dollars)

2017

Profits from Current Production* (Pre-Tax)Profits from Current Production* (Pre-Tax)Minus S Corporation Dividends**

* Book profits including Inventory Valuation Adjustment (IVA) and Capital Consumption Adjustment (CCAdj), which restate the historical cost basisused in profits tax accounting for inventory withdrawals and depreciation to the current cost measures used in GDP.

** S corporations do not pay corporate taxes. Instead, their profits are paid and taxed as dividends to their shareholders.Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and IRS Statistics of Income.

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Figure 29.

48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 266

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6

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12

14

16

NATIONAL INCOME SHARES:CORPORATE PROFITS FROM CURRENT PRODUCTION

vs EXCLUDING S CORPORATION DIVIDENDS(percent)

2017

2020

Share of National IncomeProfits from Current Production*(Pre-Tax) (12.7)Profits from Current ProductionMinus S Corporation Dividends** (9.6)

* Book profits including Inventory Valuation Adjustment (IVA) and Capital Consumption Adjustment (CCAdj), which restate the historical cost basisused in profits tax accounting for inventory withdrawals and depreciation to the current cost measures used in GDP.

** S corporations do not pay corporate taxes. Instead, their profits are paid and taxed as dividends to their shareholders.Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and IRS Statistics of Income.

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Figure 30.




91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 233

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1415

COMPENSATION OF ALL EMPLOYEES* (PRE-TAX)vs INCLUDING S CORPORATION DIVIDENDS**

(trillion dollars, ratio scale)20202017

Compensation of All Employees* (Pre-Tax) (11.6)Compensation of All Employees* (Pre-Tax)Plus S Corporation Dividends** (10.9)

* Includes wages, salaries, and supplements.** S corporations do not pay corporate taxes. Instead, their profits are paid and taxed as dividends to their shareholders.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and IRS Statistics of Income.

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Figure 31.

48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 2658

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NATIONAL INCOME SHARES:COMPENSATION OF ALL EMPLOYEES* (PRE-TAX)

vs INCLUDING S CORPORATION DIVIDENDS**

2020

Share of National IncomeCompensation of All Employees* (pre-tax) (65.4)Compensation of All Employees* PlusS Corporation Dividends** (65.2)

2017

* Includes wages, salaries, and supplements.** S corporations do not pay corporate taxes. Instead, their profits are paid and taxed as dividends to their shareholders.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and IRS Statistics of Income.

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Figure 32.




80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 240

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NUMBER OF TAX RETURNS FILEDBY EACH TYPE OF BUSINESS FORM

(millions)

2018

2020

2020

2018

2018

2018Number of Returns*All Business Returns* (38.3)Nonfarm Sole Proprietorships + Partnerships +S Corporations (36.2)Nonfarm Sole Proprietorships + Partnerships (31.1)Nonfarm Sole Proprietorships (27.1)S Corporations** (5.0)C Corporations (1.8)

* C and S corporations, nonfarm sole proprietorships, and partnerships.** S corporations do not pay corporate taxes. Instead, their profits are paid and taxed as dividends to their shareholders.

Source: Internal Revenue Service.

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Figure 33.

80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2210

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C CORPORATIONS SHARE OF BUSINESS RECEIPTS & NET INCOME(percent)

2015

C CorporationsReceipts(percent of total business receipts) (60.5)Net Income(percent of total business net income) (36.7)


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Figure 34.




80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22.0

.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

.0

.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2015

NET INCOME BY EACH TYPE OFBUSINESS FORM(trillion dollars)

Net IncomeS Corporations + Proprietorships +Partnerships (1.6)C Corporations (1.2)S Corporations (0.5)Partnerships + Proprietorships (1.1)


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Figure 35.

48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 2420

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1220

16202020242028203220

CORPORATE PROFITS &PROPRIETORS’ INCOME (BOTH PRE-TAX)

(billion dollars, saar, ratio scale)

Q3

Corporate Profits* (2940.6)Proprietors’ Income* (1854.2)

* Including Inventory Valuation Adjustment (IVA) and Capital Consumption Adjustment (CCAdj), which restate the historical cost basisused in profits tax accounting for inventory withdrawals and depreciation to the current cost measures used in GDP.Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.

yardeni.com

Figure 36.




48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26.5

.6

.7

.8

.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

.5

.6

.7

.8

.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

RATIO PROPRIETORS’ INCOME TOCORPORATE PROFITS (BOTH PRE-TAX)*

Q3

* Pre-tax corporate profits from current production and proprietors’ income both include Inventory Valuation Adjustment and Capital ConsumptionAdjustment, which are used to restate the historical cost basis used in profits tax accounting for inventory withdrawals and depreciation to the currentcost measures used in GDP.Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.

yardeni.com

Figure 37.

48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 264

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

NATIONAL INCOME SHARE:PROPRIETORS’ INCOME (PRE-TAX)


Q2

National Income Share:Proprietors’ Income (9.5)

* Proprietors’ income with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments.** Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment.


yardeni.com

Figure 38.




48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 2610

15

20

25

30

35

40

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

NATIONAL INCOME SHARE:CORPORATE PROFITS FROM CURRENT PRODUCTION*

PLUS PROPRIETORS’ INCOME (BOTH PRE-TAX)(as percent of National Income)

Q3

National Income ShareCorporate Profitsfrom Current Production+ Proprietors’ Income (23.5)

* Includes Inventory Valuation Adjustment and Capital Consumption Adjustment.Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.

yardeni.com

Figure 39.

48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 2668

70

72

74

76

78

80

68

70

72

74

76

78

80

NATIONAL INCOME SHARE:COMPENSATION OF ALL EMPLOYEES

PLUS PROPRIETORS’ INCOME (BOTH PRE-TAX)(as percent of National Income)

Q3

National Income ShareCompensation of Employees+ Proprietors’ Income (72.2)


yardeni.com

Figure 40.




48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 264

1004

2004

30044004

4

1004

2004

30044004

CORPORATE PROFITS(billion dollars, saar, ratio scale)

Q3

Q3

NIPA Profits fromCurrent Production*

After-Tax (2543.7)Dividends (1439.5)Undistributed (1104.2)

* Including Inventory Valuation Adjustment (IVA) and Capital Consumption Adjustment (CCAdj), which restate the historical cost basis used in profitstax accounting for inventory withdrawals and depreciation to the current cost measures used in GDP.Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.

yardeni.com

Figure 41.

60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 2620

620

1220

1820

242030203620

20

620

1220

1820

242030203620

CORPORATE CASH FLOW(billion dollars, saar, ratio scale)

Q2

CorporateCash Flow* (3078.1)Tax-Reported Depreciation** (2119.9)Economic Depreciation*** (2048.5)

* After-tax undistributed corporate profits with IVA and CCAdj plus capital consumption allowance (i.e., tax-reported deprecation).** Capital consumption allowance.

*** Consumption of fixed capital.Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.

yardeni.com

Figure 42.




48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 260

10

20

30

40

50

60

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

UNDISTRIBUTED CORPORATE PROFITS*(as a percent of corporate cash flow**)

Q2

* Including Inventory Valuation Adjustment (IVA) and Capital Consumption Adjustment (CCAdj), which restate the historical cost basis used in profitstax accounting for inventory withdrawals and depreciation to the current cost measures used in GDP.

** After-tax undistributed corporate profits with IVA and CCAdj plus capital consumption allowance (i.e., tax-reported deprecation).Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.

yardeni.com

Figure 43.

88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 240

1

2

3

0

1

2

3

NEW US CORPORATE SECURITY ISSUES(trillion dollars, 12-month sum)

Oct

New Corporate Issues*Bonds + Stocks (2.6)Bonds (2.1)Stocks (0.4)

* Includes issuance by nonfinancial and financial corporations.Source: Federal Reserve Board Financial Accounts of the United States.

yardeni.com

Figure 44.




80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

16001800200022002400260028003000

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

16001800200022002400260028003000

NONFINANCIAL CORPORATE BUSINESS:CASH FLOW & CAPITAL SPENDING

(billion dollars, saar, ratio scale)

Q2

Nonfinancial CorporateCash Flow* (2594.5)Capital Spending** (2188.9)

* Gross saving less net capital transfers paid.** Fixed investment.

Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Federal Reserve Board.

yardeni.com

Figure 45.

84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24.3

.5

.7

.9

1.1

1.3

1.5

1.7

1.92.12.32.52.72.93.13.3

.3

.5

.7

.9

1.1

1.3

1.5

1.7

1.92.12.32.52.72.93.13.3

CAPITAL SPENDING(trillion dollars, saar, ratio scale)

Q2

Business Fixed InvestmentPrivate Nonresidential In GDPNonfinancial CorporateNonfinancial Corporate +Nonfinancial Noncorporate

Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Federal Reserve Board.

yardeni.com

Figure 46.




84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 249

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

CAPITAL SPENDING BY NONFINANCIAL NONCORPORATE BUSINESS(as a percent of total nonresidential fixed investment in nominal GDP)

Q2

Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Federal Reserve Board Financial Accounts of the United States.

yardeni.com

Figure 47.

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 20240

1

2

3

4

5

0

1

2

3

4

5

Q3

Q2

Nov

Q3

S&P 500 DIVIDENDS & BUYBACKS(trillion dollars, annualized)

Q2

Buybacks

Dividends

S&P 500 Index

Source: Standard & Poor’s.

yardeni.com

Figure 48.




47 50 53 56 59 62 65 68 71 74 77 80 83 86 89 92 95 98 01 04 07 10 13 16 19 22 2590

130

170

210

250

290

330

370

410

450

490530

90

130

170

210

250

290

330

370

410

450

490530

Q3

NONFARM BUSINESS (NFB) PRODUCTIVITY& REAL HOURLY COMPENSATION(indexed Q1-1947=100, ratio scale)

Q3

Q3

Q3

Nonfarm BusinessProductivity (480)

Real Hourly CompensationNFB Deflator (427)PCE Deflator (382)CPI (315)

yardeni.com

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Figure 49.

47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 2580

200

320

440

560

680

800

9201040116012801400

80

200

320

440

560

680

800

9201040116012801400

INFLATION MEASURES(indexed 1947=100, ratio scale)

Oct

Q3Q3

Inflation MeasuresCPI-UPCE DeflatorNonfarm Business Deflator

yardeni.com

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Figure 50.




52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26.0

.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

.0

.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

NONFARM BUSINESS (NFB) PRODUCTIVITY & REAL HOURLY COMPENSATION

(20-quarter percent change, annual rate)

Q3

Q3

Real Hourly Compensation(using NFB Deflator) (2.4)

Productivity (1.6)

Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

yardeni.com

Figure 51.

56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24-.5

.0

.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

-.5

.0

.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

NONFARM BUSINESS (NFB) PRODUCTIVITY & REAL HOURLY COMPENSATION

(20-quarter percent change, annual rate)

Q3

Real Hourly Compensation(using PCE Deflator) (2.3)

Productivity (1.6)

yardeni.com


Figure 52.




82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 2595

105

115

125

135

145

155

165

175

185

195

205

215

225

95

105

115

125

135

145

155

165

175

185

195

205

215

225

Q3

REAL HOURLY COMPENSATION(deflated by NFB deflator, indexed Q1-1982=100, ratio scale)

Q3

Q3Measures of RealHourly CompensationUsing NFB Deflator*

Nonfarm Business (196)Average Hourly Earnings** (156)ECI*** (170)

yardeni.com

* Nonfarm Business Deflator.

*** Employment Cost Index including wages, salaries, and benefits in the private sector.** Wages only of production and nonsupervisory workers.


Figure 53.

82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 2590

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

Q3

REAL HOURLY COMPENSATION(deflated by PCED*, indexed Q1-1982=100, ratio scale)

Q3

Q3Measures of RealHourly CompensationUsing PCE Deflator*


yardeni.com

*** Employment Cost Index including wages, salaries, and benefits in the private sector.

* Personal Consumption Expenditures Deflator.** Wages only of production and nonsupervisory workers.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Figure 54.




95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 2590

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

Q3

REAL HOURLY COMPENSATION*(deflated by PCED*, indexed Q1-1995=100, ratio scale)

Q3

Q3

Measures of RealHourly CompensationUsing PCE Deflator*


yardeni.com

* Personal Consumption Expenditures Deflator.** Wages only of production and nonsupervisory workers.

*** Employment Cost Index including wages, salaries, and benefits in the private sector.Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Figure 55.

64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 2480

81

82

83

84

85

80

81

82

83

84

85

PRODUCTION & NONSUPERVISORY WORKERSAS A PERCENT OF PRIVATE PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT

Sep

Latest (81.4)


yardeni.com

Figure 56.




48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 2625

35

45

55

65

75

85

95

105

115

125

25

35

45

55

65

75

85

95

105

115

125

HOUSEHOLD & FAMILY INCOME: REAL DOLLARS (using CPI)*(thousand 2019 dollars, ratio scale)

2020

Mean Family (115.0)Mean Household (97.0)Median Family (84.0)Median Household (67.5)

* Money income including Social Security, but excluding non-cash benefits like Medicaid and Medicare.Source: Census Bureau and Current Population Reports.

yardeni.com

Figure 57.

66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 2435

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

HOUSEHOLD INCOME: REAL DOLLARS(thousand dollars, ratio scale)

2020

2020

Household IncomeMedian / PCED (60.7)Median / CPI (67.5)

Source: Census Bureau and Bureau of Labor Statistics.

yardeni.com

Figure 58.




68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 2640

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

REAL MEDIAN & MEAN HOUSEHOLD INCOMEvs REAL PERSONAL INCOME PER HOUSEHOLD

(thousand dollars, saar, ratio scale)2020

2020

2020

2020Personal Income Per Household (BEA)*Disposable Income Per Household (BEA)*Mean Household Income (Census)**Median Household Income (Census)**

* 2009 dollars using PCED. **2015 dollars using CPI. Census Bureau compiles pre-tax money income per household including Social Security, butexcluding non-cash benefits like Medicaid and Medicare.Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Census Bureau and Current Population Reports.

yardeni.com

Figure 59.

68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 2440

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

REAL PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES PER HOUSEHOLD(thousand dollars, saar, ratio scale)

2020


yardeni.com

Figure 60.




52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

NONFARM BUSINESS (NFB) UNIT LABOR COSTS & PCED INFLATION(20-quarter percent change, annual rate)

Q2Aug

Unit Labor Costs (2.5)PCED ex Food & Energy (2.2)


yardeni.com

Figure 61.

56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26.0

.2

.4

.6

.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

3.0

.0

.2

.4

.6

.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

3.0

US POPULATION(60-month percent change at annual rate)

Dec

Oct

US Population

Working-Age** (0.6)Total Civilian* (0.4)

** 16 years old and older.* Monthly estimates beginning with August 2020 are short-term projections.


yardeni.com

Figure 62.




52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26-.5

.0

.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

-.5

.0

.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE(60-month percent change at annual rate)

Oct

Five-Year Annualized Growth RatesCivilian Labor Force (0.2)


yardeni.com

Figure 63.

57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 2710

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

US POPULATION(millions)

Sep

Sep

US Population0-15 Year Olds (67.7)16-24 Year Olds (37.2)


yardeni.com

Figure 64.




48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 262

10

18

26

34

42

505866

2

10

18

26

34

42

505866

BB65 BB75

OctWORKING-AGE POPULATION: IN & OUT OF LABOR FORCE(millions, nsa, ratio scale)

65 Years Old & OlderWorking-Age Population (56.8)Not In Labor Force (45.9)Labor Force (10.9)

Note: B = Oldest Baby Boomers turned 65 years old.Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

yard

eni.c

om

Figure 65.

59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 250

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

IT EQUIPMENT, SOFTWARE, and R&D SPENDING IN NOMINAL GDP(billion dollars, saar)

Q3

Capital SpendingInformation Processing Equipment,Software, and R&D (1582.5)Information Processing Equipment (461.9)Software (513.5)R&D (607.1)


yardeni.com

Figure 66.




59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 2515

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

IT EQUPMENT, SOFTWARE, AND R&D SPENDING IN NOMINAL GDP(as a percent of total capital spending in nominal GDP) Q3

TechnologyAs Percent of TotalCapital Spending (51.5)


yard

eni.c

om

Figure 67.

52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 260

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

PRODUCTIVITY & UNEMPLOYMENT RATE

Q2

Sep

Unemployment Rate (percent) (4.8)

Productivity*(20-quarter percent change, annual rate) (2.0)

* Nonfarm business.Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

yardeni.com

Figure 68.




52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 260

1

2

3

4

5

6

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8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

Q2

REAL HOURLY COMPENSATION & UNEMPLOYMENT RATE

Sep

Real Hourly Compensation(using NFB Deflator)(20-quarter percent change, annual rate) (2.6)Unemployent Rate (percent) (4.8)


yardeni.com

Figure 69.

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 20205

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

ADJUSTED GROSS INCOME BY INCOME GROUPAS PERCENT OF TOTAL ADJUSTED GROSS INCOME

2018

yardeni.com

$0-$50,000 (15.1)$50,0000-$100,000 (21.5)$100,000-$200,000 (24.7)$200,000-$500,000 (16.9)$500,000 & Over (21.7)


Figure 70.




2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020.4

.8

1.2

1.6

2.0

2.4

2.8

3.2

.4

.8

1.2

1.6

2.0

2.4

2.8

3.2

ADJUSTED GROSS INCOME BY INCOME GROUP(trillion dollars)

2018

$0-$50,000 (1.8)$50,000-$100,000 (2.5)$100,000-$200,000 (2.9)$200,000-$500,000 (2.0)$500,000 & Over (2.5)


yardeni.com

Figure 71.

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 20203

6

9

12

15

18

21

24

27

30

33

36

39

42

45

3

6

9

12

15

18

21

24

27

30

33

36

39

42

45

INCOME TAXES PAID BY INCOME GROUPAS PERCENT OF TOTAL INCOME TAXES PAID

2018

$0-$50,000 (4.2)$50,000-$100,000 (12.1)$100,000-$200,000 (20.8)$200,000-$500,000 (21.3)$500,000 & Over (41.5)


yardeni.com

Figure 72.




89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 240

10

20

30

40

50

0

10

20

30

40

50

DISTRIBUTION OF HOUSEHOLD WEALTH IN THE US SINCE 1989:NET WORTH BY PERCENTILE GROUPS

(percent shares)

Q2

Shares of Net WorthTop 1% (32.3)90-99% (37.7)50-90% (27.8)Bottom 50% (2.3)

Source: Federal Reserve Board Financial Accounts of the United States, Distributional Financial Accounts (DFA).

yardeni.com

Figure 73.

89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 245

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

DISTRIBUTION OF HOUSEHOLD WEALTH IN THE US SINCE 1989:ASSETS BY PERCENTILE GROUPS

(percent shares)

Q2

Shares of AssetsTop 1% (29.2)90-99% (35.8)50-90% (29.4)Bottom 50% (5.6)


yardeni.com

Figure 74.




89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 240

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

DISTRIBUTION OF HOUSEHOLD WEALTH IN THE US SINCE 1989:LIABILITIES BY PERCENTILE GROUPS

(percent shares)

Q2

Shares of LiabilitiesTop 1% (4.7)90-99% (20.8)

50-90% (42.5)Bottom 50% (31.9)


yardeni.com

Figure 75.

89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 240

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

DISTRIBUTION OF HOUSEHOLD WEALTH IN THE US SINCE 1989:CORPORATE EQUITIES & MUTUAL FUND SHARES BY PERCENTILE GROUPS

(percent shares)

Q2

Shares of Corporate Equities& Mutual Funds

Top 1% (53.8)90-99% (35.1)50-90% (10.5)Bottom 50% (0.6)


yardeni.com

Figure 76.




89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 245

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

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55

60

5

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60

DISTRIBUTION OF HOUSEHOLD WEALTH IN THE US SINCE 1989:REAL ESTATE* BY PERCENTILE GROUPS

(percent shares)

Q2

Shares of Real EstateTop 1% (14.2)90-99% (30.5)50-90% (42.9)Bottom 50% (12.4)

* Owner-occupied real estate including vacant land and mobile homes at market value.Source: Federal Reserve Board Financial Accounts of the United States, Distributional Financial Accounts (DFA).

yardeni.com

Figure 77.

89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 240

10

20

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70

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

DISTRIBUTION OF HOUSEHOLD WEALTH IN THE US SINCE 1989:PENSION ENTITLEMENTS SHARES BY PERCENTILE GROUPS

(percent shares)

Q2

Shares ofPension Entitlements

Top 1% (4.7)90-99% (49.2)50-90% (43.0)Bottom 50% (3.1)


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Figure 78.




55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 272.4

2.5

2.6

2.7

2.8

2.9

3.0

3.1

3.2

3.3

3.4

3.5

3.6

3.7

3.8

3.9

2.4

2.5

2.6

2.7

2.8

2.9

3.0

3.1

3.2

3.3

3.4

3.5

3.6

3.7

3.8

3.9

2021

HOUSEHOLD & FAMILY AVERAGE SIZE

2021

Persons Per:Family (3.1)Household (2.5)

Source: Census Bureau.

yardeni.com

Figure 79.

77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 2515

20

25

30

35

15

20

25

30

35

POPULATION BY MARITAL STATUS*: SINGLES(percent of civilian noninstitutional working-age population)

Oct

Marital Status of SinglesNever Married (32.4)Divorced, Separated, & Widowed (19.1)

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* 16 years and older.Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Figure 80.




89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 240

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110

0

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DISTRIBUTION OF HOUSEHOLD NET WORTH IN THE US SINCE 1989:NET WORTH BY GENERATIONS

(percent shares)

Q2

Shares ofNet Worth By Generations

Silent (14.4)Baby Boomer (51.4)GenX (28.6)Millennial (5.6)


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om

Figure 81.

89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 240

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65

70

0

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55

60

65

70

LEVEL OF HOUSEHOLD NET WORTH BY GENERATIONS(trillion dollars, sa)

Q2

Net WorthBy Generations

Silent (19.3)Baby Boomer (68.9)GenX (38.3)Millennial (7.5)


yard

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om

Figure 82.




83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 240

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US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT RECEIPTS(as a percent of total receipts)

Oct

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US Federal Tax ReceiptsIndividual Income (50.8)Payroll* (32.2)Corporate (9.2)

Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: US Treasury Department.

* Employment and general retirement, unemployment insurance, and other retirement.

Figure 83.

65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 250

50

100

150

200

250

300

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0

50

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350

400

CEO-TO-WORKER COMPENSATION RATIO, 1965-2019

2019

2019

CEO CompensationRealizedGranted

Source: Economic Policy Institute.

yardeni.com

Figure 84.




1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 20259

50009

100009150009200009

9

50009

100009150009200009

S&P 500 TOTAL RETURN INDEX WITH6% TO 11% CAGR GROWTH PATHS

(base period Dec 1935 = 14.96, ratio scale)Q3

Q3

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

11%

S&P 500Total Return Index* (94315)Total Return Index/CPI** (4745)

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* Includes reinvested dividends.** Using last month of quarter CPI. Compounded monthly using base value.

Source: Standard & Poor’s.

Figure 85.




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