weekly market charts and analysis - bwts.com.au · weekly market charts and analysis updated to 13...

Copyright © Colin Nicholson

Weekly Market Charts and Analysis Updated to 13 April 2018

The charts provided in this document are primarily intended as a teaching tool where I use the current markets to demonstrate my top-down market analysis. It should be clearly understood that my analysis of the markets is intended only as my thinking with respect to my own investment strategy. In doing so, I am neither making nor implying any recommendation for readers to invest in any market at any time. Nor should my thinking about my own strategy be seen as making or implying any recommendation for readers to take, or not take, any action with regard to their own investment plan. Readers need to assess the relevance of anything in this document to their investment plan, seeking advice from a licensed adviser if unable to make such an assessment themselves. Overseas markets are covered as background to investing in Australia, since many world markets seem to be roughly correlated.

Navigating this Document

The document is a PDF file, which allows you to use the zooming tool (plus icon on lower toolbar) in Adobe Reader to enlarge detail in the charts.

Open and use bookmarks to jump directly to any section in the PDF file (the red arrow on the screenshot points to the bookmarks icon circled in red).

What has changed this week?

Analysis Where I have made a change to the analysis anywhere in the document from the previous week, the changed or additional text in analysis, including the Coppock indicator table will be in this colour blue. I will not comment unless I feel there is something meaningful to say. Markets often spend some time without giving much new information.

Charts All charts in this document are updated every week.

I have now standardised the period of charts for all markets, which will assist with analysis:

• Monthly charts cover 20 years, have a 12-month exponential moving average on them and a Coppock indicator line in the sub-chart

• Weekly charts cover 5 years and have a 52-week exponential moving average on them • I may from time to time mark on the charts key levels or trend/trend channel lines where

they seem to be appropriate • Country market charts are in alphabetical order within each continental section. Use

bookmarks to jump to any given market


Coppock Indicator

Explanatory Notes

The Coppock indicator is a monthly indicator which like most monthly indicators is calculated on the monthly closing value of the relevant broad-based market index. However, the Insight Trader charts of it are calculated on the last price to date in the current month. This means that the indicator value charted during the current month is provisional and signals created during the month may not remain in place at month end. Because of this issue, I consider the intra-month Insight Trader charts of the Coppock indicator to be confusing at times, so although I will continue to show them on the charts, because they show visually the relative depth of the signals, take great care with them. I have calculated the Coppock Indicator correctly in my Excel workbook, available on the Data and Other Files page on the Free Resources menu, and show the signals and current status in the table below.

Note, though, that for many markets I do not have long history to establish how useful the Coppock indicator is in those markets and have severe reservations about its effectiveness. The Coppock indicator is not infallible or magic; it is simply a specific long term momentum oscillator that is a useful tool, but no more. I use it only as described in Building Wealth in the Stock Market and tend myself to give it lower weight than for the major markets I track (US, UK, Japan and Australia).

Accordingly, great care should be taken if relying on signals for these markets and for any market where the signal is shallow in the negative range or where there is no clear downtrend on the index chart. The table on the next page gives an accurate picture on the Coppock indicator signals. It also gives a world-wide picture on the Coppock status in a convenient form.

Interpretation of the Coppock Indicator Table on the Next Page

Coppock suggested buying immediately a signal is given by the indicator turning up below the zero line, but others have suggested buying should be completed by the time the indicator reaches zero (marked “Buy” in the table). Thereafter, one should hold for long term appreciation (marked “Hold” in the table). Where the Coppock indicator has fallen below zero, but has not yet turned up, I mark it a “set-up”.

Coppock did not use his indicator to generate a sell signal. Nor did he use it for individual securities – there are better technical analysis tools.

It should be noted that this table shows the latest Coppock indicator signals. However, in many cases, the key signal for the start of the bull market and therefore to buy stocks for long term appreciation was given in many of them in 2009. There have been a number of shallow signals recently, which is not unusual in the course of a bull market. Most of these must be seen therefore at best as a continuing bull market, not a bear – bull turn, at worst as only “noise”. The Coppock indicator gives its best signals after deep and steep bear markets – the time we want to be buying part ownership of undervalued companies.


Index Last Signal Current Status Australia All Ords TR index July 2016 Hold Australia All Ords Price index July 2016 Hold China Shanghai All Ords October 2016 Hold China Shenzhen A Shares October 2016 Set-up China Hong Kong July 2016 Hold China Taiwan May 2016 Hold India May 2016 Hold Indonesia March2016 Hold Japan Nikkei 225 October 2016 Hold Malaysia February 2016 Hold New Zealand April 2009 Hold Pakistan June 2009 Set-up Singapore June 2016 Hold South Korea July 2016 Hold Austria August 2016 Hold France October 2016 Hold Germany August 2016 Hold Hungary February 2015 Hold Italy November 2016 Hold Netherlands August 2016 Hold Spain October 2016 Hold Sweden August 2016 Hold Switzerland November 2016 Hold UK FTSE 100 May 2016 Hold Brazil March 2016 Hold Canada April 2016 Hold Mexico March 2016 Hold USA DJIA May 2016 Hold USA S&P 500 May 2016 Hold USA Nasdaq Composite July 2016 Hold MSCI World Index NA Hold


Asia-Pacific

Australia ASX All Ordinaries Total Return Index Monthly and Weekly Charts

The long bull market to the 2007 top was followed by a bear market through to March 2009. Since the 2009 low, the market had been trending upward in a trend channel, interrupted so far by two minor bear trends, and has made new all-time highs.

The market has been trending upward in the trend channel since early 2016, which was the bottom of the last minor bear trend.

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

-400

400

Copp

Coppock = 115.43510000.00

12000.0014000.0016000.0018000.0020000.00

30000.00

40000.00

50000.00

60000.0070000.00EXP MOV AVS 12(0) mnth 57355.4509

M @ M 300498-300418 XAOA - ALL ORDINARIES ACC INDEX > +0.2% +130.799 to 58351.538

J FMAMJ J ASOND2013

JFMAMJ J ASOND2014

J FMAM J J ASOND2015

J FMAMJ J ASOND2016

J FMAMJ J ASOND2017

JFMAMJ J ASOND2018

36000.00

40000.00

50000.00

60000.00

70000.00EXP MOV AVS 52(0) week 57198.6725 W @ W 140613-130418 XAOA - ALL ORDINARIES ACC INDEX > +0.2% +130.799 to 58351.538


ASX All Ordinaries Price Index Chart Analysis

After the long upward move from the 1987 lows, followed by the 2007-08 bear market, the Australian stock market price index has been trending upward interrupted so far by two minor bear trends. Unlike the Total Return index, the price index is some way from making a new all-time high above the 2007 peak.

The price index is showing less upward momentum than the total return index. The price index has cleared the 2015 high, which along with the early 2017 peak, may now provide support.

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

-500

300

Copp

Coppock = 63.1922200.00

3000.00

4000.00

5000.00

6000.00

7000.00EXP MOV AVS 12(0) mnth 5924.5473 M @ M 300498-300418 XAO - ALL ORDINARIES INDEX > +0.2% +13.28 to 5924.666

J FMAMJ J ASOND2013

JFMAMJ J ASOND2014


J FMAMJ J ASOND2016

J FMAMJ J ASOND2017

JFMAMJ J ASOND2018

4000.00

5000.00

6000.00

7000.00EXP MOV AVS 52(0) week 5925.5265 W @ W 140613-130418 XAO - ALL ORDINARIES INDEX > +0.2% +13.28 to 5924.666


China - Mainland Shanghai All Ordinaries Index Monthly and Weekly Charts

The mainland China market in Shanghai trended down to a 2005 low, before rising strongly in a bull market to a 2007 high. The descent from the 2007 high was steep and followed by a rally and then a grinding sideways to down market to 2014. The steep rise in 2014 failed to reach its 2007 all-time high and was followed by a steep bear market.

The Shanghai index was gradually trending upward from the bottom of a bear market in early 2016, but has now suffered a severe setback, which has developed into a downtrend.

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

-1,000

3,000

Copp

Coppock = 177.6791800.002000.00

3000.00

4000.00

5000.00

6000.007000.008000.009000.0010000.00

12000.0014000.00MOV AVS 12(0) mnth 8396.6058

M @ M 291200-300418 98SSE180 - Shanghai All Ordinaries Index > -0.8% -66.44 to 8282.92

J FMAMJ J ASOND2013

JFMAMJ J ASOND2014


J FMAMJ J ASOND2016

J FMAMJ J ASOND2017

JFMAMJ J ASOND2018

4000.00

5000.00

6000.00

7000.00

8000.00

9000.00

10000.00

12000.00EXP MOV AVS 52(0) week 8334.4607 W @ W 140613-130418 98SSE180 - Shanghai All Ordinaries Index > -0.8% -66.44 to 8282.92


Shenzhen A Shares Index Monthly and Weekly Charts

My history for Shenzhen is only back to December 2009. Unsurprisingly, the overall shape of the chart since then has been similar to Shanghai, except that in the medium term it now looks far more like a big sideways pattern.

After the 2015-16 bear market, the decline in Shenzhen drifted into a sideways trading range. The index has now suffered a severe setback and is retesting the bear market bottom.

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

-400

1,200

Copp

Coppock = -51.359700.00

800.00900.001000.00

1200.00

1400.00

1600.001800.002000.00

3000.003400.00MOV AVS 12(0) mnth 1978.3633

M @ M 311209-300418 98SZSA - SHENZHEN A SHARE INDEX > -0.3% -6.19 to 1918.38

J FMAMJ J ASOND2013

JFMAMJ J ASOND2014


J FMAMJ J ASOND2016

J FMAMJ J ASOND2017

JFMAMJ J ASOND2018

800.00

900.00

1000.00

1200.00

1400.00

1600.00

1800.00

2000.00

3000.00

3400.00EXP MOV AVS 52(0) week 1981.8201 W @ W 140613-130418 98SZSA - SHENZHEN A SHARE INDEX > -0.3% -6.19 to 1918.38


China - Offshore Hong Kong Stock Exchange Monthly and Weekly Charts

The Hong Kong market did not reach the 2007 high in 2015. Since then it has suffered a steep correction, which has now developed into an upward trend.

The present rally has suffered a strong setback, but so far it is within the upward trend.

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

-600

800

Copp

Coppock = 320.8146000.00

7000.008000.009000.0010000.00

12000.00

14000.0016000.0018000.0020000.00

30000.0034000.00MOV AVS 12(0) mnth 28870.8692

M @ M 300498-300418 98HSI - Hong Kong Stock Exchange > -0.1% -22.90 to 30808.38

J FMAMJ J ASOND2013

JFMAMJ J ASOND2014


J FMAMJ J ASOND2016

J FMAMJ J ASOND2017

JFMAMJ J ASOND2018

18000.00

20000.00

30000.00

34000.00MOV AVS 52(0) week 28363.7925 W @ W 140613-130418 98HSI - Hong Kong Stock Exchange > -0.1% -22.90 to 30808.38


Taiwan SE Weighted Index Monthly and Weekly Charts

My history for the offshore China market in Taiwan is only back to 1997. Taiwan reached the 2007 high in 2015. Since then it suffered a steep decline, but did not take out the late 2011 low. An upward trend is unfolding and making all-time highs for the chart.

Like the other China markets, Taiwan has suffered a severe setback.

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

-600

600

Copp

Coppock = 154.9173400.00

4000.00

5000.00

6000.00

7000.00

8000.00

9000.00

10000.00

12000.00MOV AVS 12(0) mnth 10632.7867 M @ M 300498-300418 98TWII - Taiwan SE Weighted Index Delayed > +0.1% +10.10 to 10965.39

J FMAMJ J ASOND2013

JFMAMJ J ASOND2014


J FMAMJ J ASOND2016

J FMAMJ J ASOND2017

JFMAMJ J ASOND2018

7000.00

8000.00

9000.00

10000.00

12000.00MOV AVS 52(0) week 10538.6508 W @ W 140613-130418 98TWII - Taiwan SE Weighted Index Delayed > +0.1% +10.10 to 10965.39


India Bombay Sensitive 30 Index Monthly and Weekly Charts

Through to 2003 the market traded sideways. This was followed by a strong bull market to the 2007 top, followed by a bear market. This market is trending upward, making new all-time highs.

The present trend is now suffering a strong pull-back away from a new all-time high.

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

-600

800

Copp

Coppock = 214.5122000.00

3000.00

4000.005000.006000.007000.008000.009000.0010000.00

20000.00

30000.00

40000.00EXP MOV AVS 12(0) mnth 32763.1877 M @ M 300498-300418 98BSESN - Bombay Sensitive 30 Index > +0.3% +91.52 to 34192.65

J FMAMJ J ASOND2013

JFMAMJ J ASOND2014


J FMAMJ J ASOND2016

J FMAMJ J ASOND2017

JFMAMJ J ASOND2018

16000.00

18000.00

20000.00

30000.00

38000.00EXP MOV AVS 52(0) week 32443.268 W @ W 260413-130418 98BSESN - Bombay Sensitive 30 Index > +0.3% +91.52 to 34192.65


Indonesia Jakarta Composite Index Monthly and Weekly Charts

Through to 2003 the market traded sideways. This was followed by a strong bull market to the 2007 top, followed by a bear market. This market is now well above the 2015 top, and making all-time highs.

The weekly chart shows a generally sideways pattern in the last four years. The last upward move pushed through resistance at the 2015 and 2016 highs to make new all-time highs, before beginning a strong pullback.

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

-600

1,000

Copp

Coppock = 179.059200.00

300.00400.00500.00600.00700.00800.00900.001000.00

2000.00

3000.00

4000.005000.006000.007000.00EXP MOV AVS 12(0) mnth 6093.5205

M @ M 300498-300418 98JKS - Jakarta Composite Index > -0.6% -40.475 to 6270.327

J FMAMJ J ASOND2013

JFMAMJ J ASOND2014


J FMAMJ J ASOND2016

J FMAMJ J ASOND2017

JFMAMJ J ASOND2018

3800.00

4000.00

5000.00

6000.00

7000.00EXP MOV AVS 52(0) week 6052.1721 W @ W 140613-130418 98JKS - Jakarta Composite Index > -0.6% -40.475 to 6270.327


Japan Nikkei 225 Index Monthly and Weekly Charts

After the multi-year upswing from 1975 to 1990 (not shown), the Japanese stock market fell savagely from the peak of just under 39,000 points in 1990 to just under 7,000 points in 2008-09. On the way down, the Japanese market spent the 1990s establishing a wide sideways pattern, which as could be expected provided significant resistance on any rally. Indeed, it provided significant resistance in the run up to the top in 2007 and is done so again on the current rising market. However ahead of it is more resistance from trading in the late 1980s and early 1990s.

Japan is a good example of the necessity to know what is out to the left of the chart. For that reason I have adjusted the monthly chart back to the early 1980s as the late 1980s and early 1990s price action has a bearing on the current market, which is experiencing a strong correction.

84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

-600

800

Copp

Coppock = 208.5836000.007000.008000.009000.0010000.00

12000.0014000.0016000.0018000.0020000.00

30000.00

40000.00EXP MOV AVS 12(0) mnth 21263.4944 M @ M 310184-300418 98NI2 - Nikkei 225 Index > +0.5% +118.46 to 21778.74

J FMAMJ J ASOND2013

JFMAMJ J ASOND2014


J FMAMJ J ASOND2016

J FMAMJ J ASOND2017

JFMAMJ J ASOND2018

12000.00

14000.00

16000.00

18000.00

20000.00

26000.00EXP MOV AVS 52(0) week 21139.2575 W @ W 140613-130418 98NI2 - Nikkei 225 Index > +0.5% +118.46 to 21778.74


Malaysia KLSE Index Monthly and Weekly Charts

The Malaysian market was trending down after a strong rise from the 2009 low. It is now trending

upward again and has ahead of it resistance at the all-time highs in 2013-2015.

The Malaysian market had been trading generally sideways since mid-2015 and bounced off support and resistance within the sideways pattern. The present rally broke well clear of that sideways pattern, but it is suffering a correction as it encounters resistance from the top of the sideways pattern of 2013-15.

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

-600

1,000

Copp

Coppock = 90.772260.00300.00

400.00

500.00

600.00700.00800.00900.001000.00

1200.001400.001600.001800.002000.00MOV AVS 12(0) mnth 1795.445

M @ M 300498-300418 98KLSE - Malaysia KLSE Index > -0.3% -5.15 to 1868.47

J FMAMJ J ASOND2013

JFMAMJ J ASOND2014


J FMAMJ J ASOND2016

J FMAMJ J ASOND2017

JFMAMJ J ASOND2018

1400.00

1600.00

1800.00

2000.00MOV AVS 52(0) week 1786.0923 W @ W 140613-130418 98KLSE - Malaysia KLSE Index > -0.3% -5.15 to 1868.47


New Zealand NSZSX 50 Index Monthly and Weekly Charts

My data is only back to 2001. From there the bull market took the New Zealand market to a 2007 peak, followed by a bear market. Since then the New Zealand market continues to form a sustained bull market.

The weekly chart shows the ongoing upward trend from 2012.

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

-400

400

Copp

Coppock = 179.081600.001800.002000.00

3000.00

4000.00

5000.00

6000.00

7000.008000.009000.00EXP MOV AVS 12(0) mnth 8061.3893

M @ M 280201-300418 98NZ50 - NZSX 50 Index > +0.1% +10.55 to 8414.77

J FMAMJ J ASOND2013

JFMAMJ J ASOND2014


J FMAMJ J ASOND2016

J FMAMJ J ASOND2017

JFMAMJ J ASOND2018

4000.00

5000.00

6000.00

7000.00

8000.00

9000.00EXP MOV AVS 52(0) week 7977.6242 W @ W 140613-130418 98NZ50 - NZSX 50 Index > +0.1% +10.55 to 8414.77


Pakistan Karachi Stock Exchange 100 Index Monthly and Weekly Charts

My data is only back to 2001. The monthly chart shows a strong bull market to the top in 2007. This was followed by a bear market. From the 2009 low, a strong bull market has unfolded.

After a strong pull-back, the upward trend is reasserting itself.

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

-600

1,200

Copp

Coppock = -57.2721000.00

2000.00

3000.004000.005000.006000.007000.008000.009000.0010000.00

20000.00

30000.0040000.0050000.0060000.00EXP MOV AVS 12(0) mnth 43758.1771

M @ M 280201-300418 98KSE - Karachi Stock Exchange 100 Index > -0.6% -259.85 to 46071.86

J FMAMJ J ASOND2013

JFMAMJ J ASOND2014


J FMAMJ J ASOND2016

J FMAMJ J ASOND2017

JFMAMJ J ASOND2018

20000.00

30000.00

40000.00

50000.00

60000.00EXP MOV AVS 52(0) week 43568.6319 W @ W 140613-130418 98KSE - Karachi Stock Exchange 100 Index > -0.6% -259.85 to 46071.86


Singapore Straits Times Index Monthly and Weekly Charts

There were two significant bear markets in 1996-98 (Asian Crisis) and 2008 (Global Financial Crisis). The Singapore market has not so far been able to rise above the 2007 peak. It had retreated significantly from its 2015 peak, but is now rising again.

In the medium term the trend was upward, but seems to have failed a test of resistance as it approached the 2007 high.

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

-600

1,000

Copp

Coppock = 162.855800.00900.001000.00

1200.00

1400.00

1600.001800.002000.00

3000.00

4000.00MOV AVS 12(0) mnth 3370.7317 M @ M 300498-300418 98SS1 - Singapore Straits Times Index > +0.9% +32.69 to 3501.30

J FMAMJ J ASOND2013

JFMAMJ J ASOND2014


J FMAMJ J ASOND2016

J FMAMJ J ASOND2017

JFMAMJ J ASOND2018

2400.00

3000.00

3800.00MOV AVS 52(0) week 3349.0683 W @ W 140613-130418 98SS1 - Singapore Straits Times Index > +0.9% +32.69 to 3501.30


South Korea Korea Composite Stock Price Index Monthly and weekly Charts

The South Korean market had gone sideways in a narrow band for six years before running up quite sharply, making all-time new highs.

The South Korean market index had surged to a new all-time high, but has now suffered a strong pull-back.

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

-400

1,600

Copp

Coppock = 200.376260.00300.00

400.00

500.00600.00700.00800.00900.001000.001200.001400.001600.001800.002000.00

2800.00MOV AVS 12(0) mnth 2438.79 M @ M 300498-300418 98KS11 - Korea Composite Stock Price Index > +0.5% +12.36 to 2455.07

J FMAMJ J ASOND2013

JFMAMJ J ASOND2014


J FMAMJ J ASOND2016

J FMAMJ J ASOND2017

JFMAMJ J ASOND2018

1600.00

1800.00

2000.00

2800.00MOV AVS 52(0) week 2417.6275 W @ W 140613-130418 98KS11 - Korea Composite Stock Price Index > +0.5% +12.36 to 2455.07


Europe

Austria Austrian Traded index – Monthly and Weekly Charts

After a generally sideways, trendless period 1996 through 2002, there was a strong bull market leading into the bear market of 2007-2007. After a mild recovery, the Austrian market had gone sideways from 2012, but is now making new highs above the 2011 peak.

A strong uptrend was underway again after a correction, but has now given up most of the ground it had made.

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

-800

800

Copp

Coppock = 324.177900.001000.00

1200.00

1400.001600.001800.002000.00

3000.00

4000.00

5000.00

6000.00EXP MOV AVS 12(0) mnth 3292.6593 M @ M 300498-300418 98ATX - Austrian Traded Index (ATX) > -0.1% -4.07 to 3417.03

J FMAMJ J ASOND2013

JFMAMJ J ASOND2014


J FMAMJ J ASOND2016

J FMAMJ J ASOND2017

JFMAMJ J ASOND2018

1800.00

2000.00

3000.00

3800.00EXP MOV AVS 52(0) week 3265.9931 W @ W 140613-130418 98ATX - Austrian Traded Index (ATX) > -0.1% -4.07 to 3417.03


France France CAC index – Monthly and Weekly Charts

The French stock market longer-term remains stuck in a wide multi-year sideways pattern, with descending peaks following the 2000 top of the tech and internet boom.

The French market was trending upwards in the medium term from its 2016 sideways pattern and had twice broken above the 2015 high, before beginning a correction. This is a rather weak-looking chart at the moment.

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

-500

600

Copp

Coppock = 121.8912400.00

3000.00

4000.00

5000.00

6000.00

7000.00MOV AVS 12(0) mnth 5282.2383 M @ M 300498-300418 98CAC - French CAC Index > +0.1% +5.80 to 5315.02

J FMAMJ J ASOND2013

JFMAMJ J ASOND2014


J FMAMJ J ASOND2016

J FMAMJ J ASOND2017

JFMAMJ J ASOND2018

3400.00

4000.00

5000.00

6000.00MOV AVS 52(0) week 5285.344 W @ W 140613-130418 98CAC - French CAC Index > +0.1% +5.80 to 5315.02


Germany German DAX index – Monthly and Weekly Charts

After the long advance in the 1990s, Germany’s stock market saw a significant bear market from 1999 through 2003. The subsequent bull market topped out right at the 1999 highs, a classic study in resistance. After a more subdued bear market in 2008-2009, Germany’s stock market is now making new all-time highs.

The German market was making new all-time highs, but has now suffered a sharp fall, which now looks as though it may have further to go.

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

-600

600

Copp

Coppock = 120.5582000.00

3000.00

4000.00

5000.00

6000.007000.008000.009000.0010000.00

12000.0014000.00MOV AVS 12(0) mnth 12606.565

M @ M 300498-300418 98DAX - German DAX Index > +0.2% +27.39 to 12442.40

J FMAMJ J ASOND2013

JFMAMJ J ASOND2014


J FMAMJ J ASOND2016

J FMAMJ J ASOND2017

JFMAMJ J ASOND2018

7000.00

8000.00

9000.00

10000.00

12000.00

14000.00MOV AVS 52(0) week 12644.7971 W @ W 140613-130418 98DAX - German DAX Index > +0.2% +27.39 to 12442.40


Hungary Budapest BUX index – Monthly and Weekly Charts

This chart starts with the bull market that ran from 2001 to 2007. That was followed by a bear market. From the 2009 low there was strong rise that failed to make a new all-time high and was followed by a generally sideways market. However, from 2015 the trend is strongly up, now making new all-time highs.

The Hungarian market was continuing its very sustained rise from 2015, but the present correction looks as though it is threatening to drop further.

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

-600

1,000

Copp

Coppock = 261.295000.006000.007000.008000.009000.0010000.0012000.0014000.0016000.0018000.0020000.00

30000.00

40000.00

50000.00EXP MOV AVS 12(0) mnth 37058.1799 M @ M 300301-300418 98BUX - Budapest BUX > +0.1% +21.28 to 38351.65

J FMAMJ J ASOND2013

JFMAMJ J ASOND2014


J FMAMJ J ASOND2016

J FMAMJ J ASOND2017

JFMAMJ J ASOND2018

14000.00

16000.00

18000.00

20000.00

30000.00

40000.00

50000.00EXP MOV AVS 52(0) week 37007.4407 W @ W 140613-130418 98BUX - Budapest BUX > +0.1% +21.28 to 38351.65


Italy Italian Index – Monthly and Weekly Charts

The Italian stock market remains stuck in a wide sideways pattern with descending peaks following the 2000 top of the tech and internet boom, but within that pattern, may be building a multi-year base pattern from 2009.

The Italian market has rallied within a multi-year sideways pattern (see monthly chart) and was approaching its top, where further resistance was to be expected.

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

-600

400

Copp

Coppock = 247.78912000.00

14000.00

16000.0018000.0020000.00

30000.00

40000.00

50000.00

60000.00MOV AVS 12(0) mnth 22170.0517 M @ M 300498-300418 98MIB30 - Italian Index > +0.1% +25.44 to 23330.32

J FMAMJ J ASOND2013

JFMAMJ J ASOND2014


J FMAMJ J ASOND2016

J FMAMJ J ASOND2017

JFMAMJ J ASOND2018

14000.00

16000.00

18000.00

20000.00

26000.00MOV AVS 52(0) week 22071.7833 W @ W 140613-130418 98MIB30 - Italian Index > +0.1% +25.44 to 23330.32


Netherlands Amsterdam Index – Monthly and Weekly Charts

The Dutch market chart shows a long bear market from 1997-98 through to 2003. A new bull market followed, but it made a far lower peak than in the 1990s. This was followed by a bear market to 2009. Since then, the trend has been generally up, but still has some work to do before it passes the 2007 peak.

The Dutch market had worked its way through a sideways correction and was making new highs for the trend. Resistance was to be expected as it neared the 2007 high.

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

-600

600

Copp

Coppock = 137.956180.00200.00

300.00

400.00

500.00

600.00700.00800.00900.001000.00

1200.001400.00EXP MOV AVS 12(0) mnth 531.3239

M @ M 290498-300418 98AEX - Amsterdam Index > +0% +0.15 to 548.05

J FMAMJ J ASOND2013

JFMAMJ J ASOND2014


J FMAMJ J ASOND2016

J FMAMJ J ASOND2017

JFMAMJ J ASOND2018

320.00

400.00

500.00

600.00EXP MOV AVS 52(0) week 528.6097 W @ W 140613-130418 98AEX - Amsterdam Index > +0% +0.15 to 548.05


Spain IBEX 35 Index – Monthly and Weekly Charts

From a bear market low in 2003, the Spanish market enjoyed a strong bull market to 2007. This was followed by a bear market to early 2009. Since then the Spanish market has fluctuated quite widely within the range of the 2003-2007 bull market.

The Spanish market was trying to overcome resistance in the range of the 2014 and 2015 peaks, and then it was trying to rise out of an extended correction. The rally has clearly failed.

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

-500

400

Copp

Coppock = 68.3535000.00

6000.00

7000.00

8000.00

9000.00

10000.00

12000.00

14000.00

16000.00

18000.00EXP MOV AVS 12(0) mnth 10009.2877 M @ M 300301-300418 98IBEX - Spain IBEX 35 Index > +0.2% +20.30 to 9767.30

J FMAMJ J ASOND2013

JFMAMJ J ASOND2014


J FMAMJ J ASOND2016

J FMAMJ J ASOND2017

JFMAMJ J ASOND2018

7000.00

8000.00

9000.00

10000.00

12000.00EXP MOV AVS 52(0) week 10007.3747 W @ W 140613-130418 98IBEX - Spain IBEX 35 Index > +0.2% +20.30 to 9767.30


Sweden Swedish General Index – Monthly and Weekly Charts

The chart begins with the end of the decline into 2003. This is followed by a bull market to 2007. The subsequent bear market found a low in 2009 and since then the Swedish market has made a clear new all-time high, from which it retreated, but is now retracing the loss.

The Swedish market was trending upwards steadily, but has now failed a test of the 2015 highs before dropping out of a sideways pattern.

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

-500

500

Copp

Coppock = 39.596400.00

500.00

600.00

700.00

800.00900.001000.00

1200.00

1400.00

1600.001800.00EXP MOV AVS 12(0) mnth 1567.8562

M @ M 300301-300418 98OMX - Swedish General Index > +0.5% +7.78 to 1526.66

J FMAMJ J ASOND2013

JFMAMJ J ASOND2014


J FMAMJ J ASOND2016

J FMAMJ J ASOND2017

JFMAMJ J ASOND2018

1000.00

1200.00

1400.00

1600.00

1800.00EXP MOV AVS 52(0) week 1572.3496 W @ W 140613-130418 98OMX - Swedish General Index > +0.5% +7.78 to 1526.66


Switzerland Swiss Market Index – Monthly and Weekly Charts

The Swiss market rallied strongly into a 1998 peak and then struggled sideways until 2000, when it fell into a steep downward trend to a 2003 low. A bull market followed to 2007, making a new high for the chart. Since the 2009 low of the following bear market, it retested the 2009 low before trending upward strongly to 2015, where it failed to overcome resistance and retreated to a sideways pattern from which it is now rising again for a retest of the all-time highs on the chart.

The Swiss market was encountering resistance as it approached the range of the 2015 peak, which it exceeded slightly before a sharp drop, which seems to be developing into a downward trend.

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

-400

800

Copp

Coppock = 93.4863600.00

4000.00

5000.00

6000.00

7000.00

8000.00

9000.00

10000.00EXP MOV AVS 12(0) mnth 8938.51 M @ M 300498-300418 98SSMI - Swiss Market Index > +0% +1.41 to 8776.17

J FMAMJ J ASOND2013

JFMAMJ J ASOND2014


J FMAMJ J ASOND2016

J FMAMJ J ASOND2017

JFMAMJ J ASOND2018

7000.00

8000.00

9000.00

10000.00EXP MOV AVS 52(0) week 8953.4802 W @ W 140613-130418 98SSMI - Swiss Market Index > +0% +1.41 to 8776.17


United Kingdom United Kingdom FTSE 100 Index – Monthly and Weekly Charts

After the multi-year upswing to 2000, the UK stock market had formed a broad sideways pattern that included the 2000-03 and 2008-09 bear markets. Since then, the UK stock market index had struggled back to the level of the 2000 peak and failed to break it, but now it looks as though there is momentum to continue to make all-time new highs.

The FTSE 100 has rallied strongly. However the recent setback is now testing support which is centred on 7,000 points.

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

-400

400Copp

Coppock = 40.4382600.00

3000.00

4000.00

5000.00

6000.00

7000.00

8000.00EXP MOV AVS 12(0) mnth 7291.2926 M @ M 300498-300418 FTS - FTSE 100 Index > +0.1% +6.22 to 7264.56

J FMAMJ J ASOND2013

JFMAMJ J ASOND2014


J FMAMJ J ASOND2016

J FMAMJ J ASOND2017

JFMAMJ J ASOND2018

5000.00

6000.00

7000.00

8000.00EXP MOV AVS 52(0) week 7304.5765 W @ W 140613-130418 FTS - FTSE 100 Index > +0.1% +6.22 to 7264.56


The Americas

Brazil Brazil BOVESPA – Monthly and Weekly Charts

Brazil had a choppy market through to 2003. That was followed by a bull market to 2007, followed in turn by a bear market to 2008. The recovery challenged the 2007 top unsuccessfully. Since then the market had retreated to a 2016 low from which it is again rising. The current challenge is resistance around the 2008 and 2010 peaks.

A strong rise has formed since the 2016 low. It is making new all-time highs.

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

-400

1,000

Copp

Coppock = 313.1054000.005000.006000.007000.008000.009000.0010000.00

20000.00

30000.00

40000.0050000.0060000.0070000.0080000.0090000.00EXP MOV AVS 12(0) mnth 76625.6855

M @ M 300498-300418 98BVSP - Brasil BOVESPA > -1.3% -1109.12 to 84334.41

J FMAMJ J ASOND2013

JFMAMJ J ASOND2014


J FMAMJ J ASOND2016

J FMAMJ J ASOND2017

JFMAMJ J ASOND2018

36000.00

40000.00

50000.00

60000.00

70000.00

80000.00

90000.00EXP MOV AVS 52(0) week 75288.0936 W @ W 140613-130418 98BVSP - Brasil BOVESPA > -1.3% -1109.12 to 84334.41


Canada Canadian Index – Monthly and Weekly Charts

The Canadian market exceeded the 2000 peak in 2008 and has made an even higher peak in 2014. It has then suffered a significant fall, from which it is has struggled against resistance around the 2014 peak.

The strong rally in the Canadian market looked as though it may convincingly pass through resistance near the 2014 peak, but it baulked at crossing the nearby 16,000 points level and fell into a correction, from which it has bounced out and has passed 16,000 before falling sharply, finding support around the 2017 lows and beginning a rally.

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

-400

300

Copp

Coppock = 49.915000.00

6000.00

7000.00

8000.00

9000.00

10000.00

12000.00

14000.00

16000.00

18000.00MOV AVS 12(0) mnth 15626.3992 M @ M 310100-300318 98CAN - Canadian Index > Steady 15711.33

J FMAMJ J ASOND2013

JFMAMJ J ASOND2014


J FMAMJ J ASOND2016

J FMAMJ J ASOND2017

JFMAMJ J ASOND2018

10000.00

12000.00

14000.00

16000.00

18000.00MOV AVS 52(0) week 15600.7654 W @ W 140613-230318 98CAN - Canadian Index > Steady 15711.33


Mexico Mexico IPC index – Monthly and Weekly Charts

After trading sideways from 2000 to 2003, the Mexican market enjoyed a strong bull market to a top in 2007. A bear market followed, but from 2009 a long rise has followed, making new all-time highs.

In the medium term the Mexican market is rising again reasonably steadily after a sustained multi-year sideways period. In the short term a rally has failed abruptly and is now in a short-term down trend.

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

-400

700

Copp

Coppock = 30.962000.00

3000.00

4000.005000.006000.007000.008000.009000.0010000.00

20000.00

30000.00

40000.0050000.0060000.00EXP MOV AVS 12(0) mnth 48400.3418

M @ M 300498-300418 98MXX - Mexico IPC > 0% -14.26 to 48768.30

J FMAMJ J ASOND2013

JFMAMJ J ASOND2014


J FMAMJ J ASOND2016

J FMAMJ J ASOND2017

JFMAMJ J ASOND2018

36000.00

40000.00

50000.00

60000.00EXP MOV AVS 52(0) week 48583.184 W @ W 140613-130418 98MXX - Mexico IPC > 0% -14.26 to 48768.30


USA Dow Jones Industrial Average – Monthly and Weekly Charts

After the multi-year upswing from 1982 to 2000, the Dow Jones Industrial Average formed a broad sideways pattern culminating in the 2008-09 bear market. Since then, the trend was strongly upward.

The Dow has now made a series of new all-time highs as the uptrend continues. However, I worry about charts of markets that rise in an ever steeper trend. The further it went, the bigger the likely correction that has now begun. I would not be surprised if we were now in for a minor bear trend.

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

-400

400

Copp

Coppock = 257.6966000.00

7000.00

8000.009000.0010000.00

12000.00

14000.00

16000.0018000.0020000.00

28000.00EXP MOV AVS 12(0) mnth 23427.535 M @ M 300498-300418 DJR - Dow Jones Industrials Index > -0.5% -122.91 to 24360.14

J FMAMJ J ASOND2013

JFMAMJ J ASOND2014


J FMAMJ J ASOND2016

J FMAMJ J ASOND2017

JFMAMJ J ASOND2018

14000.00

16000.00

18000.00

20000.00

28000.00EXP MOV AVS 52(0) week 23228.5501 W @ W 140613-130418 DJR - Dow Jones Industrials Index > -0.5% -122.91 to 24360.14


S&P 500 Index - Monthly and Weekly Charts

As was evident on the Dow Jones Industrial Average chart, after the multi-year upswing from 1982 to 2000, the US S&P500 index formed a broad sideways pattern culminating in the 2008-09 bear market. Since then, the trend was steadily upward.

In the medium term the S&P500, like the Dow, is making ongoing new all-time highs. The comment I made with respect to the DJIA also applies here.

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

-500

400

Copp

Coppock = 189.043600.00

700.00

800.00900.001000.00

1200.00

1400.00

1600.001800.002000.00

3000.00EXP MOV AVS 12(0) mnth 2583.3566 M @ M 300498-300418 SP5 - S&P500 Index > -0.3% -7.69 to 2656.30

J FMAMJ J ASOND2013

JFMAMJ J ASOND2014


J FMAMJ J ASOND2016

J FMAMJ J ASOND2017

JFMAMJ J ASOND2018

1400.00

1600.00

1800.00

2000.00

3000.00EXP MOV AVS 52(0) week 2569.7952 W @ W 140613-130418 SP5 - S&P500 Index > -0.3% -7.69 to 2656.30


NASDAQ Composite Index - Monthly and Weekly charts

After the multi-year upswing from 1974 to 2000, commonly called the technology and internet boom, the NASDAQ Composite index crashed to a 2002 low and languished in a great sideways pattern through to 2012, when it broke above the 2007 top. Since then, the trend was steadily upward.

The Nasdaq Composite index has made a new all-time high three weeks ago after the dip, but has not followed through.

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

-600

1,000

Copp

Coppock = 284.9161000.00

1200.001400.001600.001800.002000.00

3000.00

4000.00

5000.00

6000.007000.008000.00EXP MOV AVS 12(0) mnth 6750.6896

M @ M 300498-300418 98NAS - NASDAQ Composite Index > +1% +71.224 to 7140.25

J FMAMJ J ASOND2013

JFMAMJ J ASOND2014


J FMAMJ J ASOND2016

J FMAMJ J ASOND2017

JFMAMJ J ASOND2018

3200.00

4000.00

5000.00

6000.00

7000.00

8000.00EXP MOV AVS 52(0) week 6686.2929 W @ W 140613-130418 98NAS - NASDAQ Composite Index > +1% +71.224 to 7140.25


MSCI World Index

MSCI World Index Monthly and Weekly Charts

The period available shows a strong bull market.

In the short term, there has been a sharp drop and then trading within the range of the drop.

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

0

220

Copp

Coppock = 191.441400.00

1600.00

1800.00

2000.00

2400.00EXP MOV AVS 12(0) mnth 2035.5039 M @ M 290216-300418 94MSCI - MSCI WORLD INDEX > -0.1% -1.91 to 2088.98

J FMAMJ J ASOND2013

JFMAMJ J ASOND2014


J FMAMJ J ASOND2016

J FMAMJ J ASOND2017

JFMAMJ J ASOND2018

1400.00

1600.00

1800.00

2000.00

2400.00EXP MOV AVS 52(0) week 2020.3911 W @ W 120216-130418 94MSCI - MSCI WORLD INDEX > -0.1% -1.91 to 2088.98

weekly market charts and analysis - bwts.com.au · weekly market charts and analysis updated to 13...

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