Tools for Visualizing Sea Level Rise

Impacts and Resiliency Planning

Richard Lathrop

Raritan River Workshop

December 6, 2013

Understand the Issues

Assess Risk and

Vulnerability

Plan for the Future

Implement and Adapt

Coastal Community Resiliency Progression

Photo credit: N. Psuty

The mean sea level trend over the past century is 3.99 millimeters/year (0.15 in/yr) which is

equivalent to a change of 1.31 feet in 100 years. Graphic Credit: NOAA

http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends_station.shtml

?stnid=8534720%20Atlantic%20City,%20NJ

Rising sea level is a physical reality that is impacting the

New Jersey and the entire Mid-Atlantic coastline. Predicted future rates are expected to increase to 12 mm/yr (or 0.5 in/yr). This means that by 2050 sea

level rise is expected to rise by approximately 1 foot and by 2100 sea level rise is projected to rise

about 3 feet along the Jersey shore.

SOURCE: NRC 2010

Vermeer and Rahmstorf (2009).

Projection of sea level rise from 1990 to 2100,

based on temperature projections for different

Green House Gas emissions scenarios

NOAA 2050

Scenarios for NJ Lowest: 0.3 ft

Intermediate-Low: 0.7 ft

Intermediate-High: 1.3 ft

Highest: 2.0 ft

Hurricane Sandy hits the JerseyCoast

http://www.wptv.com/dpp/news

Images from http://xfinity.comcast.net/

Nj.com

Sandy Surge Extends up the Raritan

Workshop Survey

Results: The audience of

coastal decision

makers highlighted

their perceived need

for place-based

information and

decision support

tools to inform land

use planning,

floodplain

management and

emergency

management in the

face of accelerating

sea level rise.

Light Detection And

Ranging (LiDAR)

Images from http://soundwaves.usgs.gov/

•Mapping elevation in

terrestrial zone and

bathymetry in nearshore zone

•Flown in helicopter or fixed

wing aircraft.

•> 15 cm vertical accuracy

• NJ Coastal LiDAR data

acquired in 2008 and 2010

LiDAR - southern Cape May (2m cell)

Cape May-

Delaware

BayShore

Spring 2008

Designing decision support tools related to SLR:

• Tools should incorporate information

ascertained through scientific research and

modeling that can be easily applied by

governments and landowners when planning

future land use and deciding on policy and

regulations that affect coastal resources;

• Tools should forecast expected habitat

changes, especially potential loss of habitats

important for ecological services;

• Tools should be easy to translate to decision

makers;

• Tools should enable easy understanding of

potential risks to people and development

due to future flooding and related hazards.

(NOAA Center for Sponsored Coastal Ocean Research, 2007)

NJFloodMapper Project: examine how web-based

geospatial decision-making tools can be developed

and implemented to promote coastal resilience in the

face of sea level rise and extreme storm events:

• Overall Goal: to broaden access to vital geospatial

information with the goal of empowering a wide and

diverse community of concerned parties interested

in coastal management and conservation.

• Specific Objectives:

• Develop a focused web-based mapping

application with an intuitive interface and gentle

learning curve.

• Expand to fuller decision support tool.

Analyze

Audience

Design

Product

Develop

Product

Launch

Product

Evaluate

Product &

Process

Front-end

Evaluation

(assess users

needs &

desires for

improved

decision

making)

Formative Evaluation

(get feedback on design criteria, storyboards,

prototypes, beta products, etc.,

as often as possible & is needed)

Summative

Evaluation

(assess if

products

work & are

useful)

Applying a Instructional Systems Design Model

Front-End and

Formative Evaluation

FEMA Special Flood Hazard Areas (SFHAs)

2050 SFHA incorporating sea level rise

J.G. Titus and J. Wang. 2008. EPA 430R07004. USEPA Washington DC

http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/effects/coastal/background.html

Maintaining Green Infrastructure: Coastal Salt Marshes

Graphic from http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/effects/downloads/section3_20.pdf

Tidal Marsh Retreat

Hypothetical shoreline profile

Marsh builds up

vertically through

accretion

Marsh

migrates

horizontally

NJ Inland Flooding Exposure USGS Water Science Center Flood Inundation Mapping Program

Goal: Mapping for all of

NJ’s inland watersheds –

connected to real-time and

forecasted river levels at

USGS streamgages

USGS Water Science Center

Flood Inundation Mapping Program

NJ Coastal Flooding Exposure Assessment As part of the New Jersey Recovery Fund effort, we

are undertaking a geospatial assessment to identify

geographic areas of New Jersey that are most

vulnerable to storm surge and sea level rise for use in

coastal resiliency planning.

The specific objectives are: • To rank and map exposure to coastal hazards using a

consensus-based protocol;

• Implement the above protocol to map vulnerable geographic

areas under present but also under future projected sea level

rise (2050 and 2100) conditions.

NJ Coastal Flood Exposure Assessment: to identify geographic areas of New Jersey that are most

vulnerable to storm surge and sea level rise for use in coastal

resiliency planning.

Indicators

Hazard Ranking Protocol

Protocol Element

Available data

*Data is readily available

NY

Employed

Data

NY Ranking

NJ ranking

1. Flood Hazard areas

1 and 0.2% annual

SFHA A & V zones

from ABFE /FIRM

prelim maps*

1 and 0.2%

annual SFHA

A & V zones

from ABFE

/FIRM prelim

maps

Extreme: V zone

High: A Zones

Moderate: 0.2% (500

yr or X ) zone; 1% +

3’ SLR

Extreme: V Zone (ABFE/Prelim)

High: 1% A & V Zones

Moderate: - 0.2% (500 yr or X )

zone;

2. Storm Surge SLOSH Cat 1-4* SLOSH Cat 3

SLR modified

SLOSH

Extreme:

High:

Moderate: SLOSH

Cat 3

Extreme:

High: SLOSH Cat 1

Moderate: SLOSH Cat 3

3. Shallow coastal flooding NOAA/NWS Shallow

Coastal Flooding

(SCF) *

NOAA/NWS

Shallow

Coastal

Flooding

Extreme: SCF

High: SCF + 3’ SLR

Moderate: Not

ranked by NY

Extreme: SCF

High:

Moderate:

Present-day

conditions

Consensus sea level rise projections for the

New Jersey flood exposure assessment

Tide Gage Subsidence mm/year Year Low

Intermediate Low

Intermediate High

High

Atlantic City -96Yrs 2.17 2050 0.5* 1.0* 1.5* 2.5*

Cape May - 42Yrs 2.10 2050 0.5* 1.0* 1.5* 2.5*

Sandy Hook - 75Yrs 2.27 2050 1.0* 1.0* 1.5* 2.5*

NOAA Average 2.2 2050 0.7 1.0 1.5 2.5

Miller/Kopp** 2050 1.0 1.9 2.2

Mean NOAA and M/K 2050 1.0 1.7 2.4

CVA values *** 2050 1.0 2.0 2.5

Atlantic City -96Yrs 2.17 2100 1.5* 2.5* 4.5* 7.5*

Cape May - 42Yrs 2.10 2100 1.5* 2.0* 4.5* 7.5*

Sandy Hook - 75Yrs 2.27 2100 1.5* 2.5* 4.5* 7.5*

NOAA Average 2.18 2100 1.5 2.3 4.5 7.5

Miller/Kopp** 2100 2.4 4.9 5.8

Mean NOAA and M/K 2100 2.4 4.7 6.7

CVA values *** 2100 2.5 5.0 7.0

* SLR values are in Ft and are provided by the USACE calculator to the nearest 0.5 FT

** Rounded to nearest 0.1

***Rounded up to nearest 0.5FT

NJ Coastal Flood Exposure

Assessment: Next Steps • Identify and map “hazard zones” with the most extreme

SLR/flooding exposure to assist coastal communities in

making critical decisions in planning for shoreline areas.

• To identify “hazard conflict” areas where urban land uses are

“at risk” but also constricting the natural dynamics of coastline

and wetland migration in the face of rising sea levels

• A valuation of the potential ecosystem services of alternative

green infrastructure to provide a better understanding of

economic tradeoffs

www.PrepareYourCommunityNJ.org

Plan for the Future

Getting to Resilience is a non-regulatory tool to

assist local decision-makers in the collaborative

identification of planning, mitigation, and adaptation

opportunities to reduce vulnerability to coastal

storms and sea level rise.

The outcome are positive steps towards “rewards”

from programs like FEMA’s Community Rating

System, FEMA’s Hazard Mitigation Planning

processes and Sustainable Jersey’s voluntary

municipal points system.

.

Understand the Issues

Assess Risk and

Vulnerability

Plan for the Future

Implement and Adapt

Coastal Community Resiliency Progression

Key Websites:

NJFlood Mapper: visualizing SLR NJFloodMapper.org

Getting To Resilience: A Community Planning Evaluation Tool Prepareyourcommunitynj.org

NJ Climate Adaptation Alliance Climatechange.rutgers.edu