Tools for Visualizing Sea Level Rise
Impacts and Resiliency Planning
Richard Lathrop
Raritan River Workshop
December 6, 2013
Understand the Issues
Assess Risk and
Vulnerability
Plan for the Future
Implement and Adapt
Coastal Community Resiliency Progression
Photo credit: N. Psuty
The mean sea level trend over the past century is 3.99 millimeters/year (0.15 in/yr) which is
equivalent to a change of 1.31 feet in 100 years. Graphic Credit: NOAA
http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends_station.shtml
?stnid=8534720%20Atlantic%20City,%20NJ
Rising sea level is a physical reality that is impacting the
New Jersey and the entire Mid-Atlantic coastline. Predicted future rates are expected to increase to 12 mm/yr (or 0.5 in/yr). This means that by 2050 sea
level rise is expected to rise by approximately 1 foot and by 2100 sea level rise is projected to rise
about 3 feet along the Jersey shore.
SOURCE: NRC 2010
Vermeer and Rahmstorf (2009).
Projection of sea level rise from 1990 to 2100,
based on temperature projections for different
Green House Gas emissions scenarios
NOAA 2050
Scenarios for NJ Lowest: 0.3 ft
Intermediate-Low: 0.7 ft
Intermediate-High: 1.3 ft
Highest: 2.0 ft
Hurricane Sandy hits the JerseyCoast
http://www.wptv.com/dpp/news
Images from http://xfinity.comcast.net/
Nj.com
Sandy Surge Extends up the Raritan
Workshop Survey
Results: The audience of
coastal decision
makers highlighted
their perceived need
for place-based
information and
decision support
tools to inform land
use planning,
floodplain
management and
emergency
management in the
face of accelerating
sea level rise.
Light Detection And
Ranging (LiDAR)
Images from http://soundwaves.usgs.gov/
•Mapping elevation in
terrestrial zone and
bathymetry in nearshore zone
•Flown in helicopter or fixed
wing aircraft.
•> 15 cm vertical accuracy
• NJ Coastal LiDAR data
acquired in 2008 and 2010
LiDAR - southern Cape May (2m cell)
Cape May-
Delaware
BayShore
Spring 2008
Designing decision support tools related to SLR:
• Tools should incorporate information
ascertained through scientific research and
modeling that can be easily applied by
governments and landowners when planning
future land use and deciding on policy and
regulations that affect coastal resources;
• Tools should forecast expected habitat
changes, especially potential loss of habitats
important for ecological services;
• Tools should be easy to translate to decision
makers;
• Tools should enable easy understanding of
potential risks to people and development
due to future flooding and related hazards.
(NOAA Center for Sponsored Coastal Ocean Research, 2007)
NJFloodMapper Project: examine how web-based
geospatial decision-making tools can be developed
and implemented to promote coastal resilience in the
face of sea level rise and extreme storm events:
• Overall Goal: to broaden access to vital geospatial
information with the goal of empowering a wide and
diverse community of concerned parties interested
in coastal management and conservation.
• Specific Objectives:
• Develop a focused web-based mapping
application with an intuitive interface and gentle
learning curve.
• Expand to fuller decision support tool.
Analyze
Audience
Design
Product
Develop
Product
Launch
Product
Evaluate
Product &
Process
Front-end
Evaluation
(assess users
needs &
desires for
improved
decision
making)
Formative Evaluation
(get feedback on design criteria, storyboards,
prototypes, beta products, etc.,
as often as possible & is needed)
Summative
Evaluation
(assess if
products
work & are
useful)
Applying a Instructional Systems Design Model
Front-End and
Formative Evaluation
FEMA Special Flood Hazard Areas (SFHAs)
2050 SFHA incorporating sea level rise
J.G. Titus and J. Wang. 2008. EPA 430R07004. USEPA Washington DC
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/effects/coastal/background.html
Maintaining Green Infrastructure: Coastal Salt Marshes
Graphic from http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/effects/downloads/section3_20.pdf
Tidal Marsh Retreat
Hypothetical shoreline profile
Marsh builds up
vertically through
accretion
Marsh
migrates
horizontally
NJ Inland Flooding Exposure USGS Water Science Center Flood Inundation Mapping Program
Goal: Mapping for all of
NJ’s inland watersheds –
connected to real-time and
forecasted river levels at
USGS streamgages
USGS Water Science Center
Flood Inundation Mapping Program
NJ Coastal Flooding Exposure Assessment As part of the New Jersey Recovery Fund effort, we
are undertaking a geospatial assessment to identify
geographic areas of New Jersey that are most
vulnerable to storm surge and sea level rise for use in
coastal resiliency planning.
The specific objectives are: • To rank and map exposure to coastal hazards using a
consensus-based protocol;
• Implement the above protocol to map vulnerable geographic
areas under present but also under future projected sea level
rise (2050 and 2100) conditions.
NJ Coastal Flood Exposure Assessment: to identify geographic areas of New Jersey that are most
vulnerable to storm surge and sea level rise for use in coastal
resiliency planning.
Indicators
Hazard Ranking Protocol
Protocol Element
Available data
*Data is readily available
NY
Employed
Data
NY Ranking
NJ ranking
1. Flood Hazard areas
1 and 0.2% annual
SFHA A & V zones
from ABFE /FIRM
prelim maps*
1 and 0.2%
annual SFHA
A & V zones
from ABFE
/FIRM prelim
maps
Extreme: V zone
High: A Zones
Moderate: 0.2% (500
yr or X ) zone; 1% +
3’ SLR
Extreme: V Zone (ABFE/Prelim)
High: 1% A & V Zones
Moderate: - 0.2% (500 yr or X )
zone;
2. Storm Surge SLOSH Cat 1-4* SLOSH Cat 3
SLR modified
SLOSH
Extreme:
High:
Moderate: SLOSH
Cat 3
Extreme:
High: SLOSH Cat 1
Moderate: SLOSH Cat 3
3. Shallow coastal flooding NOAA/NWS Shallow
Coastal Flooding
(SCF) *
NOAA/NWS
Shallow
Coastal
Flooding
Extreme: SCF
High: SCF + 3’ SLR
Moderate: Not
ranked by NY
Extreme: SCF
High:
Moderate:
Present-day
conditions
Consensus sea level rise projections for the
New Jersey flood exposure assessment
Tide Gage Subsidence mm/year Year Low
Intermediate Low
Intermediate High
High
Atlantic City -96Yrs 2.17 2050 0.5* 1.0* 1.5* 2.5*
Cape May - 42Yrs 2.10 2050 0.5* 1.0* 1.5* 2.5*
Sandy Hook - 75Yrs 2.27 2050 1.0* 1.0* 1.5* 2.5*
NOAA Average 2.2 2050 0.7 1.0 1.5 2.5
Miller/Kopp** 2050 1.0 1.9 2.2
Mean NOAA and M/K 2050 1.0 1.7 2.4
CVA values *** 2050 1.0 2.0 2.5
Atlantic City -96Yrs 2.17 2100 1.5* 2.5* 4.5* 7.5*
Cape May - 42Yrs 2.10 2100 1.5* 2.0* 4.5* 7.5*
Sandy Hook - 75Yrs 2.27 2100 1.5* 2.5* 4.5* 7.5*
NOAA Average 2.18 2100 1.5 2.3 4.5 7.5
Miller/Kopp** 2100 2.4 4.9 5.8
Mean NOAA and M/K 2100 2.4 4.7 6.7
CVA values *** 2100 2.5 5.0 7.0
* SLR values are in Ft and are provided by the USACE calculator to the nearest 0.5 FT
** Rounded to nearest 0.1
***Rounded up to nearest 0.5FT
NJ Coastal Flood Exposure
Assessment: Next Steps • Identify and map “hazard zones” with the most extreme
SLR/flooding exposure to assist coastal communities in
making critical decisions in planning for shoreline areas.
• To identify “hazard conflict” areas where urban land uses are
“at risk” but also constricting the natural dynamics of coastline
and wetland migration in the face of rising sea levels
• A valuation of the potential ecosystem services of alternative
green infrastructure to provide a better understanding of
economic tradeoffs
www.PrepareYourCommunityNJ.org
Plan for the Future
Getting to Resilience is a non-regulatory tool to
assist local decision-makers in the collaborative
identification of planning, mitigation, and adaptation
opportunities to reduce vulnerability to coastal
storms and sea level rise.
The outcome are positive steps towards “rewards”
from programs like FEMA’s Community Rating
System, FEMA’s Hazard Mitigation Planning
processes and Sustainable Jersey’s voluntary
municipal points system.
.
Understand the Issues
Assess Risk and
Vulnerability
Plan for the Future
Implement and Adapt
Coastal Community Resiliency Progression
Key Websites:
NJFlood Mapper: visualizing SLR NJFloodMapper.org
Getting To Resilience: A Community Planning Evaluation Tool Prepareyourcommunitynj.org
NJ Climate Adaptation Alliance Climatechange.rutgers.edu