tocqueville gold gold monitor 3q12 · 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 ......

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SECTION I: MACRO Fig. 1: Gold and U.S. Real Rates Fig. 2: Fed Balance Sheet (US$B) Fig. 3: Gold in EUR and ECB Real Rates Fig. 4: ECB Balance Sheet (euro B) Fig. 5: Gold in RMB and Chinese Real Rates Fig. 6: PBoC Balance Sheet (RMB B) TOCQUEVILLE ASSET MANAGEMENT, L. P. GOLD MONITOR 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 -8 -4 0 4 8 Gold US Real Rates (Inverted) 0 1,000 2,000 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 Gold ECB Real Rates (Inverted) 1,000 5,000 9,000 13,000 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 Gold Chinese Real Rates (Inverted) 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 94 97 00 03 06 09 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 02 04 06 08 10 12 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 99 02 05 08 11

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Page 1: Tocqueville Gold Gold Monitor 3Q12 · 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 ... Kazakhstan 5.4 Purchased Mexico-400 2.7 Purchased TOCQUEVILLE ASSET MANAGEMENT, L

SECTION I: MACRO

Fig. 1: Gold and U.S. Real Rates Fig. 2: Fed Balance Sheet (US$B) Fig. 3: Gold in EUR and ECB Real Rates Fig. 4: ECB Balance Sheet (euro B) Fig. 5: Gold in RMB and Chinese Real Rates Fig. 6: PBoC Balance Sheet (RMB B)

TOCQUEVILLE ASSET MANAGEMENT, L. P.

GOLD MONITOR

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

00 02 04 06 08 10 12

-8

-4

0

4

8Gold

US Real Rates (Inverted)

0

1,000

2,000

00 02 04 06 08 10 12

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3Gold

ECB Real Rates (Inverted)

1,000

5,000

9,000

13,000

00 02 04 06 08 10 12

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

GoldChinese Real Rates (Inverted)

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

94 97 00 03 06 09

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

02 04 06 08 10 12

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

99 02 05 08 11

Page 2: Tocqueville Gold Gold Monitor 3Q12 · 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 ... Kazakhstan 5.4 Purchased Mexico-400 2.7 Purchased TOCQUEVILLE ASSET MANAGEMENT, L

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Fig. 7: The Biggest 6 Central Bank Balance Sheets Fig. 8: Gold and M2 (US$T; Fed, ECB, PBoC)

Source: Bianco Research

Fig. 9: U.S. M1 (YoY %) Fig. 10: U.S. M2 (YoY %)

Fig. 11: ECB M1 (YoY %) Fig. 12: ECB M2 (YoY %)

Fig. 13: PBoC M1 (YoY %) Fig. 14: PBoC M2 (YoY %)

TOCQUEVILLE ASSET MANAGEMENT, L. P.

0

4

8

12

16

99 02 05 08 11 0

4

8

12

99 02 05 08 11

0

10

20

30

40

96 99 02 05 08 11

0

10

20

30

40

96 99 02 05 08 11

0

10

20

30

40

99 01 03 05 07 09 110

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

Combined M2 (LHS)

Gold (RHS)

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 100

5

10

15

70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10

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Fig. 15: Inflation Fig. 16: Electrical Consumption

U.S.

(Aug) Euro area

(Aug) China (Aug)

Headline CPI 1.7% 2.6% 2.0%

Core CPI 1.9% 1.0% N/A

Shadowstats 9.3% N/A N/A Source: Mark Lundeen, Barron’s

Fig. 17: Total U.S. National Debt Outstanding (US$B)

Source: Meridian Macro Research, LLC Fig. 18: Average Annual Interest Rate Paid on Debt Fig. 19: Interest Expense on Debt

as a % of Total Government Outlays Source: Meridian Macro Research, LLC Source: Meridian Macro Research, LLC

TOCQUEVILLE ASSET MANAGEMENT, L. P.

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 9

11

13

15

17

19

21

23

1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Page 4: Tocqueville Gold Gold Monitor 3Q12 · 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 ... Kazakhstan 5.4 Purchased Mexico-400 2.7 Purchased TOCQUEVILLE ASSET MANAGEMENT, L

4

Fig. 20: Total Credit Market Debt as a % of GDP

Source: Ned Davis Research Fig. 21: The Debt Ceiling

Fig. 22: Quality Spread and Gold Source: Bianco Research

TOCQUEVILLE ASSET MANAGEMENT, L. P.

0%

2%

4%

99 03 07 110

1,000

2,000

Gold (RHS)

Moody's Seasoned Corp Aaa vs Baa (LHS)

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Fig. 23: Global Forex Accumulation Fig. 24: Annualized Monthly Growth in

(12 month sum, $B) Treasury and Agency Holdings under Custody ($B)

Source: MacroMavens, LLC Fig. 25: China Net Purchases Fig. 26: China Recycling of LT U.S. Securities (Annual $B) Purchases of U.S. Securities as % Forex Accumulation Source: MacroMavens, LLC Source: MacroMavens, LLC

TOCQUEVILLE ASSET MANAGEMENT, L. P.

-50

0

50

100

150

200

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

-1,000

-500

0

500

1,000

1,500

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

-50%

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

-200

200

600

1000

1400

1800

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

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SECTION II: GOLD Fig. 27: GFMS Gold Supply and Demand (tonnes)

Source: AngloGold Ashanti, GFMS

Fig. 28: Market Cap of Above Ground Gold/ U.S. Financial Assets Source: Tocqueville Asset Management

20%22%

8%

0%

10%

20%

30%

1934 1982 Q2'12

TOCQUEVILLE ASSET MANAGEMENT, L. P.

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Fig. 29: Tonnes of Gold Held by Gold ETFs Fig. 30: Ownership of GLD by Type Source: World Gold Council Source: FactSet Research Systems Fig. 31: Central Banks Net Purchases (tonnes) Fig. 32: Notable Transactions in Q2 Source: World Gold Council Source: World Gold Council Fig. 33: Central Banks Holdings of Gold (tonnes) Fig. 34: Gold as a Percent of Total Reserves Source: World Gold Council Source: World Gold Council

Country Tonnes TransactionTurkey 34.6 Addition Russia 22.3 Purchased

Kazakhstan 5.4 PurchasedMexico 2.7 Purchased

TOCQUEVILLE ASSET MANAGEMENT, L. P.

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

GLD

Other

Non-institutional, 50.6%

Broker, 8.2%

Hedge Fund, 16.0%

Investment Adviser, 21.1%

Insurance Company, 0.1%

Mutual Fund, 2.7%

Pension Fund, 0.5%

Private Banking, 0.8%

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

29,000

30,000

31,000

32,000

33,000

34,000

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

1.0%

1.1%

1.2%

1.3%

1.4%

1.5%

1.6%

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

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Fig. 35: Emerging Asia’s Share of Gold Demand

Source: GMO, GFMS, World Gold Council, Bloomberg Fig. 36: Google Searches for: “Gold Bubble”

Fig. 37: “Gold Investment”

TOCQUEVILLE ASSET MANAGEMENT, L. P.

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Fig. 38: Ned Davis Research Gold Sentiment Composite

Fig. 39: Hulbert Newsletter Gold Sentiment Index

TOCQUEVILLE ASSET MANAGEMENT, L. P.

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Fig. 40: Market Vane Bullish Consensus

Source: Market Vane

Fig. 41: Bernstein’s Daily Sentiment Index Source: Bernstein’s DSI

TOCQUEVILLE ASSET MANAGEMENT, L. P.

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

06 07 08 09 10 11 12500

700

900

1,100

1,300

1,500

1,700

1,900

2,100Market Vane (LHS)

Gold (RHS)

0

20

40

60

80

100

06 07 08 09 10 11 11500

700

900

1,100

1,300

1,500

1,700

1,900

2,100DSI (LHS)

Gold (RHS)

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Fig. 42: COMEX Gold Futures Fig. 43: COMEX Gold Futures

Open Interest (tonnes) Activity (tonnes) Fig. 44: Commercial Net Shorts Fig. 45: Gold

as a % of Open Interest vs. Continuous Commodity Index Source: The McClellan Market Report

TOCQUEVILLE ASSET MANAGEMENT, L. P.

-1,200

-800

-400

0

400

800

1,200

06 07 08 09 10 11 12500

900

1,300

1,700

2,100

Gold (RHS)

Net Hedgers/ Commercials (LHS)

Net Large Speculators (LHS)

800

1,200

1,600

2,000

06 07 08 09 10 11 12500

900

1,300

1,700

2,100

Open Interest (LHS)

Gold (RHS)

-100%

0%

100%

200%

300%

400%

500%

600%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

Gold

CCI

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SECTION III: MINING EQUITIES Fig. 46: XAU and HUI as a Ratio of Gold Fig. 47: GSA’s Gold Stocks’ Valuation Fig. 48: Net Fund Flows for Lipper’s Equity Precious Metals Fund Universe ($B)* Fig. 49: Market Cap of Van Eck Gold Equity ETFs ($B) Fig. 51: Cash Costs and Margin *Note: 2H12 figure is through August. Fig. 50: Gold Miners Dividend Payout Ratio*

*Universe includes: ABX, NEM, GG, AU, GFI, KGC, NCM, BVN, HMY , Source: Scotia Capital, GFMS AUY, AEM, IAG, CG, EGO, and GOLD

TOCQUEVILLE ASSET MANAGEMENT, L. P.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

84 87 90 93 96 99 02 05 08 11

XAU/Gold

HUI/Gold

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

1H06

1H07

1H08

1H09

1H10

1H11

1H12

0

5

10

15

06 07 08 09 10 11 12

0%

20%

40%

60%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12E

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Fig. 52: Total Cash Outflow ($/oz) Fig. 53: Returns on Capital* Note: Operating = Operating costs + Corporate costs + Exploration costs +Royalties; *Universe: ABX, NEM, GG, AU, GFI, KGC, NCM, BVN, Capital = Ongoing + Expansion capital; Other = Finance costs and Other cash outflows HMY, AEM, IAG, GOLD, HL, BGO, CBJ, GLG, LIHR, Source: Gold Fields MDG, PDG, HM, NDY, ASL Fig. 54: Average Discovery Cost ($/oz) Fig. 55: Equity Capital Issued by Gold Miners Source: Gold Fields, MinEx Consulting, MEG

Source: RBC Capital Markets, BMO Capital Markets Fig. 56: Cost of Acquisitions in the Gold Sector

Source: RBC Capital Markets, BMO Capital Markets

TOCQUEVILLE ASSET MANAGEMENT, L. P.

0%

4%

8%

12%

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12E

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 100

5

10

15

20

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 120

50

100

150

$B of Equity Issued (LHS)

# of Financings (RHS)

0

100

200

300

400

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 120%

10%

20%

30%

40%

Acquisition Cost ($/oz; LHS)

Acquisition Cost as a Ratio of Gold (RHS)

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Fig. 57: Gold Price Discounted by the Market Fig. 58: Consensus Forecast Gold Prices ($/oz) Source: Assorted N.A. Brokerage Research Source: BMO Capital Markets Fig. 59: NAV Premiums- Senior & Intermediate Producers (N.A.)

Source: BMO Capital Markets Fig. 60: P/CF – Senior Producers (N.A.)

Source: BMO Capital Markets

TOCQUEVILLE ASSET MANAGEMENT, L. P.

500

800

1,100

1,400

1,700

2,000

Yr 0 Yr 1 Yr 2 Yr 3 Yr 4 LT

2011

2010

2009

2007

2008

2012

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John Hathaway Portfolio Manager and Senior Managing Director © Tocqueville Asset Management L.P. October 9, 2012 The information provided in this Appendix should not be construed as investment advice. No representation is made concerning the accuracy of cited data, nor is there any guarantee that any projection, forecast or opinion will be realized. References to stocks, securities or investments should not be considered recommendations to buy or sell. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. Securities that are referenced may be held in portfolios managed by Tocqueville or by principals, employees and associates of Tocqueville, and such references should not be deemed as an understanding of any future position, buying or selling, that may be taken by Tocqueville. We periodically reprint charts or quote extensively from articles published by other sources. When we do, we provide appropriate source information. The quotes and material that we reproduce are selected because, in our view, they provide an interesting, provocative or enlightening perspective on current events. Their reproduction in no way implies that we endorse any part of the material used or the investment recommendations that may be published on those sites.

TOCQUEVILLE ASSET MANAGEMENT, L. P.