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Tocqueville Gold Strategy
NCPERS 2017 Annual Conference &
Exhibition May 2017
Private and Confidential. For Institutional Use Only. Not for Distribution.
TOCQUEVILLE ASSET MANAGEMENT L.P.
This material may not be distributed, published, or reproduced, in whole or in part, without the prior approval of Tocqueville Asset Management L.P. The information presented in this material has been prepared by Tocqueville Asset Management L.P. and/or obtained from sources which it believes to be reliable, however it does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy, or completeness of such information. The views expressed in this presentation are the opinion of Tocqueville Asset Management L.P. Charts or quotes from other sources have been selected because, in our view, they provide an interesting, provocative or enlightening perspective on current events or the topic of discussion. Their reproduction in no way implies that we endorse any part of the material or investment recommendations that might be included.
Disclaimer
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• New York-based, SEC registered investment adviser formed in 1985
• Contrarian, fundamentals-driven investor that specializes in undervalued and out-of-favor assets
• Disciplined investment process that seeks to mitigate risk via in-depth primary research and vigilant portfolio oversight
• $11.4 billion of assets under management as of 3/31/17
• Privately owned limited partnership is an incentive to excel and a source of organizational stability
Tocqueville Asset Management
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Tocqueville Gold Strategy
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Inception
1998
Portfolios
• Mutual fund • Separately managed accounts • Private funds
AUM as of 3/31/17
$2.1 billion
Percentage of Firm Assets
18.4%
Composite Returns 9/30/98 – 3/31/17
Cumulative Annualized
Tocqueville (Net) 338.1%
8.3%
XAU Index1
43.1% 2.0%
1. PHLX Gold/Silver Sector Index (XAU). Please refer to the performance disclosure statement for full disclosures regarding the Tocqueville Gold Equity Composite. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance.
Tocqueville’s View on Gold
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• Store of value • No counterparty risk • Low correlation with financial assets
Reasons to Own Gold
• Growing distrust of financial institutions, politicians, and currencies • Low/negative real rates; bias for inflation • Highly valued financial assets; few alternatives
Ideal Macro Environment
• Limited above ground stocks • Mine supply challenged
Limited Supply
• Gold has retained its purchasing power over the long-term
• Paper currencies lose purchasing power because of governments’ policies to print money
– Some policies were extreme and their currencies are now extinct
Gold is a Store of Value
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100-Trillion Zimbabwe dollar note (2008-09)
500-Billion Yugoslav dinar note (1992-94) 100-Billion German mark note (1922-23)
Japanese Yen
British Pound
Reichsmark 1924=1.0
Deutsche Mark* 1924=1.0
French Franc*
US Dollar
Gold
Swiss Franc
German Mark
0.0001
0.0010
0.0100
0.1000
1.0000
1913 1923 1933 1943 1953 1963 1973 1983 1993 2003 2013
Purchasing Power in the United States of Gold and Selected Currencies (1913=1.0)
4. 0000
*using Euro 1999-2014
Purchasing power calculated from the implicit price deflator for U.S. GDP and the exchange rates of foreign currencies for U.S. dollars. As of 12/31/16. Source: American Institute for Economic Research, Bloomberg, MeasuringWorth.com.
-1.00 -0.75 -0.50 -0.25 0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00
S&P GSCI
Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index
MSCI EAFE
S&P 500
Monthly Return Correlation vs. Gold
1 Year 5 year 10 Year 20 Year
• Gold has a low correlation with several categories of financial assets
Why Gold Now?
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Source: Bloomberg as of 12/31/16.
• Gold is inexpensive relative to U.S. financial assets
Gold and U.S. Financial Assets
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Source: World Gold Council, Federal Reserve, Bloomberg.
1
2
4
8
16
32
64
1920
1925
1931
1937
1943
1948
1954
1960
1966
1971
1977
1983
1989
1994
2000
2006
2012
Dow Jones Industrial Average /Gold Price Ratio
19.6%21.8%
3.5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
1934 1982 2016
Market Value of Above Ground Gold /U.S. Financial Assets
• Gold equities provide dynamic exposure to the gold price
Gold Equities
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Gold Equities Gold
Currency debasement
Operating leverage
Organic growth (i.e. resource/production)
M&A
Dividends
• Active U.S. precious metals equity mutual funds have outperformed the PHLX/Gold & Silver Sector Index (XAU) and VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX)
– Annual return difference between the average active precious metals mutual fund vs. the XAU and GDX:
• Volatility of active management returns is also ~15% lower than the XAU and GDX
Active vs. Passive Management
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Source: Bloomberg as of 12/31/16.
20 Yrs. 15 Yrs. 10 Yrs. 5 Yrs. 3 Yrs. 1 Yr.
Active minus XAU 2.7% 4.1% 1.3% 0.7% 3.1% -21.7%
Active minus GDX - - 2.3% 2.4% 1.6% 0.3%
• Passive gold equity ETFs are potentially approaching capacity limits – The two biggest ETFs represent $18 billion or ~5% of the global gold sector1
– Frequent price deviation from underlying NAV – The VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ) recently announced a significant
restructuring to alleviate ownership levels and deviation from its benchmark
Gold Equity ETFs
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1. As of 04/12/17. Source: VanEck.
• Tocqueville uses its intensive research to identify investment sweet spots
Life Cycle of a Gold Mining Stock
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Discovery Production Development
Investment sweet spots
Higher risk Lower risk
Valuation Parameters Geologic Potential Ent. Value/Au Reserve Ounces Ent. Value/Production
Ent. Value/Au Resource Ounces Price/Net Asset Value Price/Net Asset Value
Ent. Value/Au Reserve Ounces Price/Cash Flow Price/Cash Flow
Valu
e
References to securities or investments should not be considered recommendations to buy or sell. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. Securities that are referenced may be held in portfolios managed by Tocqueville or owned by principals, employees, and associates of Tocqueville, and such references should not be deemed as an understanding of any future position, buying or selling, that may be taken by Tocqueville.
• Mine lives in the gold sector are currently at historical lows
Gold Production
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Source: Scotiabank.
Top Ten Holdings*
As of 3/31/2017 % of Assets
Physical Gold 11.9%
Franco-Nevada Corp. 4.8%
Pan American Silver Corp. 4.5%
Alamos Gold Inc. 3.9%
Torex Gold Resources Inc. 3.7%
Fresnillo PLC 3.5%
Detour Gold Corp. 3.2%
Newmont Mining Corp. 3.2%
B2Gold Corp. 3.0%
MAG Silver Corp. 3.0%
• The portfolio is built to balance risk and return – Significant opportunities exist in smaller, earlier-stage mining companies – >50% of the asset base, on a look-through basis, is located in North America
Portfolio
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21%
20%
10% 5% 3% 3%
3% 2%
2% 2%
29%
Underlying Asset Base*
Canada
Mexico
USA
Australia
Brazil
Burkina Faso
DRC
Philippines
Turkey
Mali
Other
>$8 Billion (Senior Producers): 25%
$2-8B (Mid-Tier Producers/Advanced Developers): 40%
$0.5-2B (Small Producers/Developers): 25%
<$0.5B (Early Developers/Exploration): 10%
Historical Allocation by Company Size/Type*
*Please refer to the performance disclosure statement for full disclosure information. References to securities or investments should not be considered recommendations to buy or sell. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. Securities that are referenced may be held in portfolios managed by Tocqueville or owned by principals, employees, and associates of Tocqueville, and such references should not be deemed as an understanding of any future position, buying or selling, that may be taken by Tocqueville.
• Tocqueville Gold Equity Composite has outperformed the gold price and Philadelphia Gold/Silver Sector Index (XAU) over the long-term
Performance
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-50%
50%
150%
250%
350%
450%
550%
650%
750%
850%
950%
1050%
09/98 09/99 09/00 09/01 09/02 09/03 09/04 09/05 09/06 09/07 09/08 09/09 09/10 09/11 09/12 09/13 09/14 09/15 09/16
Cumulative Net Performance Since Composite Inception
CompositeGoldPhiladelphia Gold/Silver Sector Index (XAU)S&P 500MSCI World Materials
As of 3/31/17. Please refer to the performance disclosure statement for full disclosures regarding the Tocqueville Gold Equity Composite. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance. Source: Tocqueville Asset Management, Bloomberg.
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 YTD2017
Tocqueville 18.5% -11.2% 21.0% 72.8% 52.8% -9.6% 28.8% 36.6% 12.0% -35.8% 88.2% 55.7% -17.4% -9.7% -49.9% -4.8% -25.8% 42.2% 9.7%XAU 6.5% -22.5% 7.6% 43.4% 44.0% -7.7% 30.6% 12.5% 22.9% -27.7% 36.6% 35.9% -19.2% -6.7% -48.0% -17.3% -33.4% 74.9% 6.5%
-50%
-25%
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
125%
Composite Net Annual Returns
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As of 3/31/17. Please refer to the performance disclosure statement for full disclosures regarding the Tocqueville Gold Equity Composite. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. 1. Tocqueville Asset Management L.P. (the "Firm") is a U.S. based registered investment advisor, which offers investment advisory services to individuals and institutional investors. 2. The Firm claims compliance with the Global Investment Performance Standards (GIPS®) and has prepared and presented this report in compliance with the GIPS standards. The Firm has been independently
verified for the periods January 1, 2002 through June 30, 2006. The verification reports are available upon request. Verification assesses whether (1) the firm has complied with all the composite construction requirements of the GIPS standards on a firm-wide basis, and (2) the firm’s policies and procedures are designed to calculate and present performance in compliance with the GIPS standards. Verification does not ensure the accuracy of any specific composite presentation. For a list of composite descriptions, please call 212.698.0800. Policies for valuing portfolios, calculating performance, and preparing complaint presentations are available upon request.
3. The Gold & Precious Metals Equity Composite (the “Composite”) consists of only discretionary accounts in the Gold Equity strategy which are at least $1 million in asset size at time of inclusion. Accounts meeting the Composite criteria are included in the Composite in the first full measurement period in which that account is under management. Currently the “Period” consists of the first full month. Prior to December 31, 2008 the “Period” was the first full quarter. The Composite returns are benchmarked against the total return of the PHLX Gold/Silver Sector Index (XAU). The inception date of the Composite was September 30, 1998. The Composite creation date was November 1, 2008. The Composite has not been independently audited.
4. The Composite results are time-weighted rates of return net of commissions and transactions costs, and have been presented both gross and net of investment advisory fees. The Firm values all portfolios monthly and records all transactions on a trade date basis. Dividend income is recorded on a cash basis. Monthly Composite returns are calculated by weighting each account’s monthly return by its beginning market value as a percent of the total Composite beginning market value. Currently Net of fee composite returns reflect the deduction from gross performance of an investment management fee of 1.50% annually reduced at a rate of 0.125 basis points per month. From October 1, 2002 to December 31, 2008 Net of fee composite returns reflect the deduction from gross performance of an investment management fee of 1.50% annually reduced quarterly. Prior to October 1, 2002 Net of fee composite returns deduction from gross performance of an investment management fee of 1.00% annually reduced quarterly. Annual Composite returns are calculated by linking the monthly returns through compounded multiplication. For each account in the Composite, net of fee rates of return are calculated by taking the previous quarter’s monthly advisory fee as a percentage of the account’s month-end market value. For each Composite, monthly and annual returns, which are net of fees, are calculated in the same manner as described above. Performance on this Composite has been calculated using U.S. dollars. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Performance results are total return, i.e. include the reinvestment of all income.
5. Composite dispersion is a measure of variability, which is often used in the investment industry as an indicator of risk. The composite dispersion of annual account returns is calculated from the measurements of variance from the mean annual account return on an equal-weighted basis. Composite dispersion is not meaningful for populations of less than five accounts. The 3-yr annualized standard deviation presented measures the variability (using monthly returns) of the composite and the benchmark returns over the preceding 36 months.
6. The standard fees charged by the Firm applicable to the Composite are 1.50% on the first $10 million and 1.00% thereafter. There are no non-fee paying accounts in this Composite. 7. The benchmark for the Composite is the XAU Index. This index is comprised of 30 companies engaged in the gold/silver mining sector. It is a market capitalization-weighted index calculated on a total return
basis with dividends reinvested. You cannot invest in the index. 8. The Market Vectors® Gold Miners ETF (GDX) seeks to replicate as closely as possible, before fees and expenses, the price and yield performance of NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index (GDM). GDM is a modified
market capitalization-weighted index, and provides exposure to publicly traded companies worldwide involved primarily in gold mining, representing a diversified blend of small-, mid- and large- capitalization stocks. As such, the GDX is subject to the risks of investing in this sector.
9. The Market Vectors® Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ) seeks to replicate as closely as possible, before fees and expenses, the price and yield performance of the Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners Index (MVGDXJTR), a rules-based, modified market capitalization-weighted, float-adjusted index intended to investors exposure to small- and medium-capitalization companies in the gold or silver mining industry.
10. Market cap data is calculated by FactSet Research Systems and the equity mining stages for each market cap is provided as a general guide and defined by the investment team. The underlying asset base is an estimate of the mine locations of a largest account in the Tocqueville Gold Equity strategy and is calculated by the investment team. Top 10 Holdings are also based on the representative account, and are shown as Supplemental Information. The portfolio is actively managed and holdings will change over time. Top 10 Holdings should not be deemed a recommendation to purchase or sell the securities mentioned. Holdings are based on percent of net assets. This information is unaudited and should be referenced for informational purposes only.
11. The Gold Equity portfolio invests in gold, which involves additional risks, such as the possibility for substantial price fluctuations over a short period of time. The portfolio may also invest in foreign securities, which involve greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods. The portfolio is non-diversified, meaning it may concentrate its assets in fewer individual holdings than a diversified portfolio. Therefore, the portfolio is more exposed to individual stock volatility than a diversified portfolio.
Performance Disclosure Statement
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Joseph Zock Tocqueville Asset Management L.P. 40 West 57th Street, 19th Floor New York, NY 10019 212-698-0800 [email protected]
Contact Information
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