thursday, august 10, 2017 tonight’s futures...
TRANSCRIPT
Tonight’s Futures Closes:
(Futures contracts highlighted in green were the bull leaders today; futures prices highlighted in red were the bear leaders today.)
Sep 17 Corn $3.5725 -15.0 Sep 17 Soybeans $9.34 -32.0
Sep 17 CH Wheat $4.405 -19.0
Dec 17 Corn $3.71 -15.25 Nov 17 Soybeans $9.4025 -33.0 Dec 17 CH Wheat $4.6875 -18.0
Mar 18 Corn $3.83 -15.0 Jan 18 Soybeans $9.49 -32.5
Sep 17 KC Wheat $4.4825 -15.5
May 18 Corn $3.8925 -14.5 Mar 18 Soybeans $9.5675 -31.75
Dec 17 KC Wheat $4.7575 -15.25
Dec 18 Corn $4.04 -12.75 Nov 18 Soybeans $9.5575 -24.0 Sep 17 MN Wheat $7.0325 -30.75
Dec 17 Oats $2.67 -8.5 Nov 17 Rapeseed $506.2 -5.0 Dec 17 MN Wheat $7.155 -30.0
Dec 17 Meal $300.2 -12.7 Oct 17 Cotton $69.26 -2.56 Sept Dollar Index 93.300 -0.140
Dec 17 SB Oil $34.16 -0.37 Dec 17 Cotton $68.11 -3.00 Oct Crude Oil $48.63 -1.09
Oct 17 Cattle 106.600 -1.450 Dec 18 Cotton $67.68 -2.24 Aug Gold $1285.5 +12.5
Oct 17 Feeder
140.475 -0.500 Sep 17 Rice $1225.0 -6.0 Sept S&P 2435.80 -37.20
Oct 17 Hogs 67.975 -0.275 Nov 17 Rice $1252.0 -6.0 Sept Dow Jones 21836 -182
Thursday, August 10, 2017
USDA analysts preparing for today’s report!
All joking aside, it was a rough day for the
markets following the multitude of surprises
today from USDA (see attached Revenue
Management Update letter). When it was all
said and done, December corn broke support
around $3.75 and closed at its lowest mark since
last September (top right). December cotton
closed limit lower, breaking its sharp uptrend,
and falling thru its 9-day, 50-day, & 20-day
moving averages (lower right). November
soybeans took out their July/August low, and are
now looking down at their June low of $9.07.
Minneapolis September wheat closed down the
30 cent limit, but at least found support at its
50% retracement & 50-day moving average.
Chicago & KC wheat followed along. Based on
today’s closes, I would guess that tomorrow’s
trade will probably be lower as well, then try to
find some stability over the weekend.
Going forward, everything depends on how
much traders believe USDA’s numbers, plus
weather’s impact for the remainder of the year.
We’ve seen past years where USDA lowered
yields significantly after the August report (see
last night’s GMO, recent history of corn yields, August-January, 2010 & 2011). USDA was
VERY aggressive with its ear weights (below), using the 3rd heaviest ear weight
since 2004. Does anyone believe this??? Even adjusting the weight down .01
lbs/ear would be nearly 3%, which could drop their yield estimate to 164.7
bpa. That would be in line with average trade estimates.
USDA is also using it largest wheat head weight in the last 14 years, and has
increased that number each of the last two months. IF USDA intends to stay
with this weight, then I’d assume they will decrease spring wheat harvested
acres in subsequent reports.
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