WeatherManager Weekly

Welcome to this week’s WeatherManager, your weekly journal for

ideas and developments in the weather risk market, brought to you by

eWeatherRisk.

The articles talk about the volatile weather with too much rain early in

most of the Midwest and into Texas and then devastating heat and

drought on row crops as well as peanuts where some had been calling

for a cool summer. This summer’s heat indices have been very high

and our livestock heat index protection a real winner. Ask about that

for next year. Normally the developing El Nino suggests wetter and

cooler conditions in the Southern Plains and South and dry and warm

conditions out West along with drought in the Northern Plains into

Canada for this Fall and Winter and a difficult 2016 growing season.

Recommendation. With late planted crops, focus is on continued

wetness as well as early freeze and lack of growing degree days where

crops were planted late or are behind from the cool summer. Consider

the caveat about the flip to a La Nina and buy heat and/or drought

hedges for 2016 this Fall and not wait until the forecasts tilt that way

and prices increase for next summer in the Belt to protect against 2012

conditions as well as lost energy, snow removal and salt sales this

winter.

Weather hedging is a necessary part of any risk management strategy

as weather poses the biggest danger to crop yields and revenue, and a

hedge can provide great protection to complement your crop insurance

and marketing decisions as well as protect many commercial risks.

Issue 242

August 13, 2015

Corn crop decimated by drought –

Cantón, VA (8/5/2015)

Percent of Normal Precipitation (%)

WeatherManager Weekly Current Headlines

Percent of Normal Precipitation (%)

8/12/2014 – 8/13/2015

8/12/2012 – 8/13/2015

Dirt Like Concrete Choking U.S. Corn as Dry Spell Damaging

Crops – “It’s almost like concrete out there,” said Pitstick, 30, a

fourth-generation farmer who grows corn and soybeans on about

8,000 acres (3,237 hectares) near Maple Park. “If we don’t get

any rains in the next 10 days, we’re looking at 15 to 25 percent

total crop loss.”

Despite unfavorable weather, are any of the crops persevering? –

Things have really changed over the last few months, things

have gone from too wet and we couldn’t’ get in the field and

now for the last 4 or 5 weeks we have been on the dry side,” said

Burbrink.

Angelina County farmers suffer after extreme weather changes –

Angelina County and several East Texas counties voted to enact

a burn ban for the next 90 days in Tuesday's Commissioner's

court meeting. It's a complete 360 from the disaster declaration

of a little over a month ago.

High Plains cotton still late but catching up some with hot

weather – Cotton in the Texas South Plains and Rolling Plains

typically remained two to four weeks behind in development,

but current weather patterns are helping, said cotton

agronomists.

Hot weather affecting crops in Bulloch Co. – Peanut plants in

Greg Sikes' fields need another month to grow this year. They'd

normally be ready by this time of the year.

Too much rain ruined farmer's late season crops, could effect

local economy – While water is necessary for all living and

growing things, for Vernon County farmers this growing season,

water could provide too much of a good thing.

For First Time in 110 Years, Firefighting Costs Exceed 50

Percent of U.S. Forest Service Budget – Fighting fires in

drought-stricken California and across the West Coast has

become more and more costly, according to a new report by the

U.S. Forest Service.

Current Drought Update

Commentary: The upper map is the 3 month US Drought

Monitor Class Change. The Pacific Northwest continues to

worsen with the hot and dry conditions from Spring into late

July. Improvements continue in the Rockies and Mid Atlantic

into New England. The Southeast worsened in the face of very

hot temperatures with dryness developing along the Gulf into

East Texas.

The lower map is the Drought Monitor as of last Thursday.

Moderate to exceptional drought maintained its hold on the

West with extreme drought in the Pacific Northwest. Hot and

dry conditions expanded the areas of dryness and moderate

drought to the Southeast, East TX and LA and even into WI,

MN, Northern Iowa and parts of the Plains.

Recommendation: Drought and heat hedges should be

evaluated for all of the West as well as in the Southeast. Heat

and drought hedges in the Western Plains and Canada this Fall

and even next spring. A hot end to summer and fall for the

West can be hedged for impacts on livestock and dairy as well

as energy consumption for building owners, municipalities and

schools where the drought is the worst and the fire and heat

season started early and continues to worsen as we’ve called

for all year. For First Time in 110 Years, Firefighting Costs

Exceed 50 Percent of U.S. Forest Service Budget

WeatherManager Weekly

Significant Events July 2015

Commentary: The map is the

Significant Climate Events for July

with the prime story being hot in the

West and into Alaska with ideal

wildfire conditions, cold in the

Northeast, wet in the Midwest and

hot and dry in the Southeast.

Recommendation: Now that we are

in August, early Fall freeze hedges

should be considered where freeze

dates for the Northern US can be as

early as mid-August and most of the

Belt has early freeze dates in early

September. With eWeather you

can guarantee a freeze free

September in a good part of the

Belt where the forecasts are calling

for a cool end to August in the

Northern Plains. Drought and lack

of chilling unit hedges in the West

for next winter should be

considered. Excess heat hedges for

the Southeast should also be

considered.

WeatherManager Weekly

Hazards Outlook

Commentary: The map is the 3-7

Day weather hazards map for the

US. Heavy rain along the Gulf Coast

but drought in South Florida, the

Carolina’s and all of the West,

excessive heat in the desert, high

winds in the Western Plains and

heavy rain in the upper Plains.

Recommendation: Early Fall freeze

hedges should be considered

everywhere there was late planting

and particularly in the North for row

crops and into Texas for cotton

where the crop is still 2-4 weeks

behind. High Plains cotton still late

but catching up some with hot

weather Excess rain hedges and lack

of Growing Degrees can also be

considered for areas that have had

too much rain or late planting.

WeatherManager Weekly

Short – Term Precipitation Outlook

Commentary: The 5 and 7 day outlooks

forecasts 1 to 2” rain in the Canadian Prairies

and Northern US Plains, generally light to no

rain for most of the US other than the Gulf

Coast with 3” rains just onshore.

Recommendations. Drought and heat hedges

for the PNW and Canada for this summer and

next fall/winter and heat hedges for this summer

and fall in the West and PNW are still

suggested. We have hurricane and excess rain

hedges for those along the coasts that are also of

interest to energy companies in the Gulf.

Municipalities and building owners should

consider purchasing excess snow hedges for

next winter and remember we now offer

weather protection for your concerts, fairs,

tournaments and other outdoor events which is

generating strong interest. If you have an

upcoming event in your area, call the

organizer, get some details such as the date

and amount at risk and call us at (800) 603 –

3605 for a quote.

WeatherManager Weekly

8/12/2015 – 8/17/2015

8/12/2015 – 8/19/2015

6 – 10 Day Weather Information WeatherManager Weekly

Commentary: Wednesday’s 6 – 10 day temperature

outlook for August 18th – August 22nd shows

widespread above to much above normal temperatures

for most of the US with the most above normal in the

Northeast through the Central Belt and then again in

the West. Below to much below normal in the

Midwest with an early harbinger of fall and possibly

freezing temperatures around the corner.

The lower map is the 6-10 precipitation outlook with

above normal rainfall forecast for the eastern 2/3rds of

the US and below to much below normal rainfall

returning to the West.

Recommendations. Heat hedges for feedlots and dairy

with our new heat index hedges performed

exceptionally this summer and can still be bought.

With the strengthening El Nino increasing the risk of a

cooler and wetter summer in the South, the risk of

more frequent snow and ice events in the

South/Southeast increases as does the risk of a warmer

and drier Northern US for this Fall and Winter which

could also mean less snow and more ice. Call for a

quote for your risk.

8 – 14 Day Weather Information

Commentary: The 8 – 14 day

temperature outlook for August 20th to

August 26th forecasts above to much

above normal temperatures continuing for

most of the US and below to much below

normal continuing in the upper Plains.

Recommendation. Heat and/or drought

hedges in the South/Southeast are still

recommended where contracts can start in

20 days. Heat hedges in the West where a

very active fire season is well underway

and is worsening every day with these dry

and warm conditions. Call or e-mail us to

discuss how these work for your risks.

We are also seeing interest from building

owners and municipalities for snow and

cold winter hedges in the Midwest and

East Coast for next winter as well as

transportation/logistics hedges where cold

winters constrain truck, rail and

barge/boat traffic and hauling.

WeatherManager Weekly

8 – 14 Day Weather Information

Commentary: The 8 – 14 day

precipitation outlook for August 20th to

August 26th shows continued below

normal rainfall for the Western US and

above to much above normal rainfall

continuing for the eastern 2/3rds of the

US.

Recommendation: Cool summer and

excess precipitation are recommended

particularly for shorter season areas like

MI/WI as well as for any late planted

areas where folks were still trying to plant

soybeans even into July and early freeze

dates not far away. Freeze hedges for

those areas should also be explored as

well as continued wetness for quality

problems and excess drying costs. Rain

on hay as well as into harvest on barley

and spring wheat should also be

considered where we have special

protections available.

WeatherManager Weekly

Points to Consider

There are now over 6,000 weather stations that are available,

single or in combination to cover weather risk in 14 different

peril groups.

Weather risks are fully customized to each customer’s need

as a single peril that can be applied throughout the season as

well as for commercial accounts – cooperatives, ethanol

plants, feedlots, utilities (both water and energy) and

construction risks.

Patented weather data, hedging and index creation processes,

patent number 8,607,154, issued 12/10/2013.

eWeatherRisk solutions are backed by a Standard and Poor's

AA- rated multi-national reinsurer.

Issue 242

August 13, 2015

Brian O’Hearne, President/CEO

Brian.Ohearne@eweatherrisk.com

John Coleman, Director, Structuring & Origination

John.Coleman@eweatherrisk.com

Support@eweatherrisk.com

Contact us or your agent for specific needs (800) 603-3605.

eWeatherRisk, Inc. | 5251 W. 116th Pl, Suite 204 Leawood, KS 66211 | (800) 603 - 3605

Cows stand in a flooded pasture at the corner of West

Oak Harbor Southeast Road and Ohio 273 in Oak

Harbor, Ohio.