Pobreza, Desigualdad, y Políticas Sociales Pobreza, Desigualdad, y Políticas Sociales en América Latina: Viejos Problemas, en América Latina: Viejos Problemas,

Nuevas Posibilidades .Nuevas Posibilidades .

Thomas J TrebatThomas J TrebatInstitute of Latin American StudiesInstitute of Latin American Studies

Columbia UniversityColumbia UniversitySeptember 2011September 2011

April 21, 2023April 21, 2023 22

Pobreza y Desigualdad en la Región Pobreza y Desigualdad en la Región Latinoamericana.: Evaluación, RemediosLatinoamericana.: Evaluación, Remedios

Some progress being made: Will it Some progress being made: Will it continue?continue?

Better safety nets and social Better safety nets and social assistanceassistance

Absolute numbers of the poor have Absolute numbers of the poor have declineddeclined

Yet poverty and inequality remain Yet poverty and inequality remain very high in Latin Americavery high in Latin America

And no doubt contributes to the And no doubt contributes to the low rates of economic growthlow rates of economic growth

Better, more targeted economic and Better, more targeted economic and social policies are neededsocial policies are needed

Tax and expenditure policiesTax and expenditure policies Labor market policiesLabor market policies Credit and insurance marketsCredit and insurance markets Access to educationAccess to education Healthcare policyHealthcare policy Social safety netsSocial safety nets Early childhood programs to Early childhood programs to

combat malnutrition and begin combat malnutrition and begin educationeducation

Wide range of definitions: from lack of resources to lack of Wide range of definitions: from lack of resources to lack of capabilities or freedomcapabilities or freedom

Lack of resources Lack of resources (“a severe constriction of the choice set [over (“a severe constriction of the choice set [over commodities]” commodities]” (Watts, H.)(Watts, H.)

Unmet basic needs (food, shelter, basic services)Unmet basic needs (food, shelter, basic services) Capability deprivation (Sen, A.).Capability deprivation (Sen, A.).

Different concepts lead to different measurements and policy Different concepts lead to different measurements and policy intervention designsintervention designs

Human Opportunity Index (HOI – World Bank)Human Opportunity Index (HOI – World Bank) Human Development Index (UNDP)Human Development Index (UNDP) Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI – Oxford University)Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI – Oxford University) Unmet Basic Needs Index, othersUnmet Basic Needs Index, others

Pobreza – Conceptos y métodos Pobreza – Conceptos y métodos de mensuraciónde mensuración

Tomado de: CEPAL (2008)

Pobreza ha estado en declinio…Pobreza ha estado en declinio…

Evolution of Poverty (4 US$ per day) and GDP 1980 – 2008 in LAC

6

0.528

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

0.50

0.55

0.60B

oliv

ia

Bra

sil

Col

ombi

a

Par

agua

y

Pan

ama

Chi

le

Hon

dura

s

Nic

arag

ua

LAC

Per

u

Ecu

ador

Arg

entin

a

Mex

ico

Gua

tem

ala

El S

alva

dor

Cos

ta R

ica

Ven

ezue

la

Uru

guay

Gin

i Co

efic

ient

Sub-Saharan Africa (circa 2005)

OECD (Average- circa 2005)

Aunque elevada todavía, desigualdad también está cayendo….(Source: World Bank, September 2009)

6

Gini Coefficient, Latin America (circa 2004-2005)

Tomado de: CEPAL (2009)

Cambios en tasas de desiguladad entre 2002 e 2008 en AL

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0

Brasil

NicaraguaGuatemala

PerúColombia

R. DominicanaCosta Rica

EcuadorHonduras

UruguayParaguay

BoliviaPanamá

VenezuelaEl Salvador

ChileMéxico

ArgentinaJamaica

Child with four siblings in a rural single-parent household, with illiterate parent and per capita income of US$1

Child with one sibling in an urban two-parent household, with completed secondary education and per capita income of US$25

Dos niños latinoamericanos:Dos niños latinoamericanos:Probability of completing sixth grade on timeProbability of completing sixth grade on time

Jamaica

Argentina

MexicoChile

El SalvadorVenezuela

PanamaBolivia

Dominican Rep.

ParaguayUruguay

HondurasEcuador

Costa Rica

ColombiaPeru

GuatemalaNicaragua

Brazil

America Latina em perspectiva America Latina em perspectiva globalglobal

0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00

Maldonado

Artigas

Tacuarembo

Canelones

Colonia

Rocha

Lavalleja

Durazno

Salto

Florida

Montevideo

Rio Negro

Soriano

San Jose

Cerro Largo

Paysandu

Treinta y Tres

Rivera

Flores

Dep

arta

men

to

Probabilidad promedio

Dos niños uruguayos: Dos niños uruguayos: Probability of a preventive dental visit (previous 6 months)Probability of a preventive dental visit (previous 6 months)

Child with four siblings in a rural single-parent household, with illiterate parent and per capita income of US$3

Child with one sibling in an urban two-parent household, with completed secondary education and per capita income of US$30

0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00

Gran Tucumán - T. Viejo

Gran Paraná

Salta

Gran San Juan

Posadas

Río Cuarto

Corrientes

Formosa

Gran Catamarca

Santa Rosa - Toay

Gran Córdoba

Gran Mendoza

Concordia

Jujuy - Palpalá

San Luis - El Chorrillo

Gran Resistencia

Cdro. Rivadavia - R.Tilly

Raw son – Trelew

Gran Rosario

Neuquén – Plottier

La Rioja

Río Gallegos

S.del Estero - La Banda

Gran Santa Fé

Partidos del GBA

Mar del Plata - Batán

Ciudad de Bs As

Viedma – C. de Patagones

Ushuaia - Río Grande

La Plata

S. Nicolás – V. Constitución

Bahía Blanca - Cerri

Probabilidad promedio

Dos niños argentinos:Dos niños argentinos:Probability of 2-5yo children receiving early educationProbability of 2-5yo children receiving early education

Child with four siblings in a rural single-parent household, with illiterate parent and per capita income of US$4

Child with one sibling in an urban two-parent household, with completed secondary education and per capita income of US$25

Dos niños paraguayos: Dos niños paraguayos: Probability of having potable water in the houseProbability of having potable water in the house

0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00

Caaguazú

Itapúa

San Pedro

Alto Paraná

Resto del Pais

Central

Asunción

Dep

arta

men

to

Probabilidad promedio

Child with four siblings in a rural single-parent household, with illiterate parent and per capita income of US$1

Child with one sibling in an urban two-parent household, with completed secondary education and per capita income of US$25

Desarrollo humano visto como capacidades para Desarrollo humano visto como capacidades para llevar una vida digna.llevar una vida digna.

IDH incluye 3 dimensiones:IDH incluye 3 dimensiones: Ingreso/ “nivel de vida” (PIB per cápita PPA en dólares).Ingreso/ “nivel de vida” (PIB per cápita PPA en dólares). Longevidad (esperanza de vida al nacer).Longevidad (esperanza de vida al nacer). Nivel educacional (tasa de analfabetismo y tasa de Nivel educacional (tasa de analfabetismo y tasa de

matrícula combinada).matrícula combinada).

Índice de Desarrollo Humano Índice de Desarrollo Humano (IDH – PNUD)(IDH – PNUD)

Índice de Desarrollo Humano para América Índice de Desarrollo Humano para América Latina en 2011Latina en 2011

http://hdr.undp.org/en/data/trends/

April 21, 2023April 21, 2023 1515

92918888878681797676737169696953514846

Rank

12345678910111213141516171819

Human Opportunity IndexChile

Uruguay

Argentina

Costa Rica

Venezuela

Mexico

Jamaica

Colombia

Ecuador

Brazil

Dominican Rep.

Paraguay

Bolivia

Peru

Panama

El Salvador

Guatemala

Honduras

Nicaragua

Doing Business

Mexico

Peru

Colombia

Chile

Panama

Jamaica

El Salvador

Dominican Rep.

Guatemala

Paraguay

Argentina

Nicaragua

Uruguay

Costa Rica

Brazil

Ecuador

Honduras

Bolivia

Venezuela

Human Development Index

Chile

Argentina

Uruguay

Panama

Mexico

Costa Rica

Peru

Brazil

Venezuela

Ecuador

Colombia

Jamaica

Dominican Rep.

El Salvador

Bolivia

Paraguay

Honduras

Nicaragua

Guatemala

89838281777773716967

Rank

12345678910

Human Opportunity Index (Education)CanadaUK SwedenGermany NorwayFranceSpain US*PortugalItaly

Doing Business

USUKCanadaNorwaySwedenGermanyFrancePortugalSpainItaly

Human Development IndexNorwayCanadaSwedenFranceUSSpain ItalyUKGermany Portugal

* HOY for education calculated as a simple average of HOIs for reading, mathematics and science in PISA. For the US average of mathematics and science only.

Cuáles son los factores que explican la caída Cuáles son los factores que explican la caída en tasas de pobreza?en tasas de pobreza?

Macro stability and growth is necessary for poverty reduction, Macro stability and growth is necessary for poverty reduction, but what is required is that the poor benefit from that growth.but what is required is that the poor benefit from that growth.

Poverty reduction episodes driven by remittances or “good Poverty reduction episodes driven by remittances or “good luck” may or may not be sustainable.luck” may or may not be sustainable.

Poverty reduction episodes driven by employment or Poverty reduction episodes driven by employment or productivity increases seem to be characterized by fundamental productivity increases seem to be characterized by fundamental changes which may be long-lasting.changes which may be long-lasting.

Social spending help to reduce poverty when well targeted but Social spending help to reduce poverty when well targeted but unlikely to be the main driver. Evidence of infrastructure unlikely to be the main driver. Evidence of infrastructure investment having positive impact on povertyinvestment having positive impact on poverty

19

6000

6500

7000

7500

8000

8500

9000

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

50.0

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008*

co

nsta

nt 2

005 in

tern

atio

nal $

Po

vert

y rate

4 USD a day GDP per capita, PPP (constant 2005 international $)

Poverty and GDP evolution in Latin America and the Caribbean

Pobreza y crecimento económico- relación estrecha

19

Extremely high rates in Andes Lower rates in Chile and Costa

Rica About 50% of the labor force is

in the informal sector Mainly in services Productivity extremely low in

services See the graph

Gastos expresivos con políticas sociales

GPS per cápita como proporción de PIB per cápita(2006-2007)

24,6

21,3 21,3

16,8 16,3

12,5 12,0 11,3 11,1 11,08,9 8,0 7,8 7,5 6,4

14,4

11,0

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Bra

sil

Arg

entin

a

Uru

guay

Cos

ta R

ica

Bol

ivia

Col

ombi

a

Ven

ezue

la

Chi

le

Nic

arag

ua

Par

agua

y

Méx

ico

Hon

dura

s

Pan

amá

Rep

. D

omin

ican

a

Per

ú

Gua

tem

ala

Ecu

ador

Pro

po

rció

n

Source: CEPAL.

Brasil – ingresos de los más pobres estan creciendo a tasas altas

Source: Brazil Economic Team using data from PNAD (IBGE)

Brasil : Factores que explican la caída en la pobreza

Source: Barros et al (2010).

Most of the reduction in poverty is due to an increase in labor income

April 21, 2023April 21, 2023 2424

Las cuentas fiscales ayudan a entender la Las cuentas fiscales ayudan a entender la disminución de la pobreza? Sólo en parte..disminución de la pobreza? Sólo en parte..

Social spending tends not to be progressive and is probably Social spending tends not to be progressive and is probably regressive in many respectsregressive in many respects

Subsidies to tertiary education, generally high in Latin America, Subsidies to tertiary education, generally high in Latin America, benefit the wealthy disproportionatelybenefit the wealthy disproportionately

The same is true for pension payments :The same is true for pension payments :– No pension systems for informal workersNo pension systems for informal workers

Innovations: Conditional Cash Transfers Do Target the PoorInnovations: Conditional Cash Transfers Do Target the Poor

April 21, 2023April 21, 2023 2525

Efectos redistributivos de diferentes gastos Efectos redistributivos de diferentes gastos gobernamentales en América Latinagobernamentales en América Latina

Social Assistance

Education

Primary Education

Secondary Assistance

Tertiary Assistance

Health

Housing

Pensions

Total Social Spending

- 0.3 - 0.2 - 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4

Source: Americas Quarterly, spring 2008Source: Americas Quarterly, spring 2008

ProgressiveExpenditures

RegressiveExpenditures

January 26, 2011January 26, 2011 Inequality Case StudiesInequality Case Studies 2626

Argentina: Polítcas sociales mejoran la Argentina: Polítcas sociales mejoran la distribución del ingreso nacionaldistribución del ingreso nacional

Programas tipo Bolsa Famila en 1997Programas tipo Bolsa Famila en 1997

Source: Fiszbein & Schady (2009)

Programas tipo Bolsa Familia en 2008Programas tipo Bolsa Familia en 2008

Source: Fiszbein & Schady (2009)

April 21, 2023April 21, 2023 2929

Programas condicionados de transferencia de renta en America Latina

PROGRAM COUNTRY DATE START

BOLSA FAMILIA (EX-COLSA ESCOLA, BOLSA ALIMENTAÇÃO BRAZIL 1995 AND 2003 (BF)

OPORTUNIDADES (EX-PROGRESA) MEXICO 1997

PROGRAMA DE ASIGNACIÓN FAMILIAR (PARF) HONDURAS 1998

SUPERÉMONOS COSTA RICA 2000

RED DE PROTECCIÓN SOCIAL MI FAMILIA (RPS) NICARAGUA 2000

FAMILIAS EN ACCIÓN COLOMBIA 2001

BONO DE DESARROLLO HUMANO AND BECA ESCOLAR ECUADOR 2001 AND 2003

CHILE SOLIDARIO CHILE 2002

PATH JAMAICA 2002

RED SOLIDARIA EL SALVADOR 2004

FAMILIAS POR LA INCLUCIÓN SOCIAL ARGENTINA 2005

TARJETA SOLIDARIA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC 2005

RED DE PROMOCIÓN Y PROTECCIÓN SOCIAL PARAGUAY 2005

PROGRAMA JUNTOS PERU 2005

Source: Americas Quarterly, spring 2008Source: Americas Quarterly, spring 2008

Familias en AcciónEducation subsidy:

• Cash subsidy for households with children 7 -17 years old, conditioned on enrollment and attendance (80% of the time).

• Large cities: subsidy is for children between 11 and 18 yrs old and varies by grade.

• Bimonthly subsidy of $30,000/child in elementary school and $60,000/child in secondary school (up to $120,000 for youth in 11th grade in some cities).

3131 31

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

3,5

4,0

4,5

5,0

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

pe

rce

nta

ge

percentiles of the distribution

Distribution of Bolsa Família beneficiaries by percentile of the distribution of per capita income: Brazil

Source: Estimates based on Pesquisa Nacional por amostra deDomicílios (PNAD) from 2004 to 2008 and Encuesta de Hogares, Panama, 2008 and CASEN, Chile, 2003.Note1: The per capita income that defined the hundreths of population excludes the income of the benefit.Source: Estimates based on Pesquisa Nacional por amostra deDomicílios (PNAD) from 2004 to 2008 and Encuesta de Hogares, Panama, 2008 and CASEN, Chile, 2003.Note1: The per capita income that defined the hundreths of population excludes the income of the benefit.

Red de Oportunidades - Panama

Bolsa Família

SUF - Chile

Oportunidades

Beneficiaries are concentrated in the

lower deciles

Programas bien enfocados sobre las necesidades de los más pobres

Source: World Bank 2009

Por qué se expanden los programas Por qué se expanden los programas condicionados de tranferencia de renta?condicionados de tranferencia de renta?

3232

Success as social assistance: good targeting, cost effective

Success in raising service use: schools, health services

Improvements in outcomes: nutrition, health, learning, income gains

Good governance: objective, verifiable targets, etc.

Modest cost for the government: 0.4% of GDP

But not a substitute for jobs

April 21, 2023April 21, 2023 3333

Otros enfoques de la politica social contra la Otros enfoques de la politica social contra la pobreza y desigualdadpobreza y desigualdad

Extending pension benefits more broadlyExtending pension benefits more broadly Access to healthcareAccess to healthcare The educational system and its impact on inequalityThe educational system and its impact on inequality Early childhood programsEarly childhood programs

34

Cobertura de pensiones y jubilaciones todavía limitada

34

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1990's 2000's

As a percentage of economically active population, 1990s to 2000s

Source: World Bank staff calculations, forthcoming Regional Study

35

Disponibilidad de seguro salud fuera del alcance de los pobres

35

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

As a percentage of economically active population, mid-2000s

Source: World Bank staff calculations, forthcoming Regional Study

3636

Falta de atención adecuada a los problemas de los más jovenes

25.4 22.9 22.6 21.5 19.0

38.6 35.6 34.6 32.3 31.6

0.0

46.8 45.1 45.0 46.8

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

2000 2005 2007 2008 1er.Semestre

2009

po

rcen

taje

Total Sierra Quintil inferior

Evolution of Chronic Child (<5 year old) malnutrition in Peru

3737

Baja inversión en programas enfocados sobre la niñez(OECD countries invest up to 1.8% of GDP)

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1

NicaraguaSt Lucia

BelizeAntigua ColombiaGuatemal

BoliviaSalvador

PeruArgentinaGrenadaJamaica

ParaguaySt Kitts

ChileCosta

BarbadosMexico

Guyana

Public current expenditure on preprimary education as a % of GNP

Source: UNESCO Global Monitoring Report 2007

Oportunidades humanas – nuevas Oportunidades humanas – nuevas políticas sociales son necesáriospolíticas sociales son necesários

1. More Emphasis on Early Childhood: 1. Pregnant Mothers2. Institutional delivery

2. Invest More on Primary Education:1. Reading Standards2. Mathematical Skills

3. Protect Teenagers: 1. Detect Talent2. Physical Security

5. Open Access to Information: 1. Libraries2. Local Governments

April 21, 2023April 21, 2023 3939

En resumen – la pobreza y la desigualdad En resumen – la pobreza y la desigualdad seguirán en declínio en América Latina?seguirán en declínio en América Latina?

Access to higher education remains a huge obstacleAccess to higher education remains a huge obstacle– This is significantly lower quality for the poorThis is significantly lower quality for the poor

– And most poor do not make it to universitiesAnd most poor do not make it to universities

A large share of public spending is still regressiveA large share of public spending is still regressive– Taxes are severely underused as an instrument of redistributionTaxes are severely underused as an instrument of redistribution

– ““State capture” by elite groups: artificial monopolies, etc.State capture” by elite groups: artificial monopolies, etc.

Substantial tax reform is needed:Substantial tax reform is needed:– Income taxationIncome taxation

– Estate taxationEstate taxation

Of course, expansion in employment opportunities most importantOf course, expansion in employment opportunities most important– Macroeconomic growth Macroeconomic growth

– Improvements in the business environmentImprovements in the business environment

April 21, 2023April 21, 2023 4040