population change in latin american and the caribbean ... · population change in latin american...
TRANSCRIPT
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Population change in Latin American and the Caribbean, 1990-
2000, a spatial time series
*Marc Levy - CIESIN - Columbia UniversityMaria Muñiz - CIESIN - Columbia University
Susana Adamo - CIESIN - Columbia UniversityT. Mitchell Aide - University of Puerto Rico - Rio Piedras
María José Andrade Núñez - University of Puerto Rico - Rio PiedrasGregory Yetman - CIESIN - Columbia University
Maria Elisa Lukang - CIESIN - Columbia University Tricia Chai-Onn - CIESIN - Columbia University
Sandra Baptista - Earth Institute - Columbia University
Presentation to AAG annual meeting, 14 April 2010, Washington, DC
For correspondence: [email protected]
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Acknowledgements
• National Science Foundation, Coupled Natural-Human Systems Program– Collaborative Research: The Impact of Economic
Globalization on Human Demography, Land Use, and Natural Systems in Latin America and the Caribbean
• PI Mitch Aide, University of Puerto Rico• David Carr UC Santa Barbara• Mateo Clark, Sonoma State University• Ricardo Grau, Universidad Nacional de Tucumán
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Characterizing spatial distribution of population dynamically is important
• Driver of global change processes– Land use– Climate change– Hydrology– Emerging infectious diseases
• Element of vulnerability to – Global change– Natural disasters– Epidemics– Political conflict
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Fundamental building block of sustainability science
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But it is hard to do on a large scale
• Georeferencing of census data is not standardized across countries– Process is ad hoc– Each country does it differently
• Boundaries change over time– Complicates dynamic analysis of spatial data
• As a result, spatial studies of population dynamics tend to be small-scale, local and regional
• Gap: continental-scale spatial analysis of population dynamics
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Static Dynamic
Global
Continental
Local
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Our goals
• Characterize changing distribution of population in Latin America and Caribbean 1990-2000 – Replicable methods
– Spatial consistency
– Comparable units
– Spatial resolution suitable to global change analysis
• Integrate with comparable measures of land cover change (produced by collaborators) to explain interactions
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Dealing with changes in administrative boundaries
Source: María Muñíz, CIESIN, 2008
Changes due to subdivision of census enumeration units, but also to administrative changes
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Ñuflo de Flores, Santa Cruz, Bolivia
1992
2001
2002
3 sections: Concepcion, San Javier, San Julian
5 sections: Concepcion, San Javier, San Julian, San Ramon, San Antonio de Lomerío
6 sections: Concepcion, San Javier, San Julian, San Ramon, San Antonio de Lomerío, Cuatro Cañadas
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• 45 Countries
• 16,080 administrative units
• Primarilymunicipio
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Population Density, 1990
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Matching reference years
• Start with data from multiple census years
• Calculate annual growth rates
• Extrapolate and interpolate to generate estimates for 1990 and 2000
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r =LN P2 P1( )[ ]
t2 − t1( )
where, LN = the natural log, P1 and P2= population counts for the first and second reference years, t1 and t2 = time periods 1 and 2.
The following formula is then applied to the official population estimates, to extrapolate the data:
1Pert × where, r= the geometric growth rate (as defined above), t= the number of years the initial estimate will be projected forward/backward, P1= population counts for the first reference year
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Growth Rate, 1990-2000
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Density Growth Rate
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Descriptives
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1990 Density (people/sq km)Mean 228Min 0Max 47,627Std. Dev. 1450
1990-2000 Growth Rate (%)Mean 15.8Min -84.3Max 1,262Std. Dev. 36.1
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Grouping the municipios
• Density (persons/sq km)– Low 0 - 5.7 (n=2397)– Middle 5.7 - 72 (n=9333)– High 72 - 162 (n=-2215)– Very high 162 - 47,627 (n=2135)
• Growth Rate (%)– Low -84 - -2.2 (n=3477)– Middle -2.2 - 34 (n=10,048)– High 34 - 1,262 (n=2521)
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Rural areas that are depopulating
• Over 4,000 municipios are depopulating
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Municipioswith low 1990
population density
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Municipioswith average
1990 population
density
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Municipioswith high
1990 population
density
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Municipioswith very high
1990 population
density
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Unweighted Pop-weighted
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People are dominantl in dense areas that are growin significant
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Unweighted Area-weighted
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The land area is predominantly low-density and growing significantly
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Pop weighted Area weighted
To determine how much of this is rural-urban migration?
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Next steps
• Integrated model to explain land cover, demographic change
• Describe shifting patterns of vulnerability to climate change
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