thinking about the future 3 - scenarios and use cases pdf

Abiliti: Future Systems

Thinking about the Future WIP Draft version 3.0

THINKING ABOUT THE FUTURE. The way that we think about the future must mirror how the future actually unfolds. As we have all learned from recent experience, the future is not a simple extrapolation of linear,

single-domain trends. We now have to consider ways in which the possibility of random, chaotic and radically disruptive events may be

factored into enterprise strategy development, threat assessment and risk management frameworks and incorporated into enterprise decision-

making structures and processes.


• Abiliti: Origin Automation is part of a global consortium of Digital Technologies Service Providers and Future Management Strategy Consulting firms for Digital Marketing and Multi-channel Retail / Cloud Services / Mobile Devices / Big Data / Social Media

• Graham Harris Founder and MD @ Abiliti: Future Systems

– Email: (Office) – Telephone: (Mobile)

• Nigel Tebbutt 奈杰尔泰巴德

– Future Business Models & Emerging Technologies @ Abiliti: Future Systems – Telephone: +44 (0) 7832 182595 (Mobile) – +44 (0) 121 445 5689 (Office) – Email: [email protected] (Private)

• Ifor Ffowcs-Williams CEO, Cluster Navigators Ltd & Author, “Cluster Development” – Address : Nelson 7010, New Zealand (Office)

– Email : [email protected]

Abiliti: Origin Automation Strategic Enterprise Management (SEM) Framework ©

Cluster Theory - Expert Commentary: -

mailto:[email protected]





Slow is smooth, smooth is fast.....

.....advances in “Big Data” have lead to a revolution in

futures studies, forecasting and predictive modelling – but

it takes both human ingenuity, and time, for long-range

Models of the Future to develop and mature.....

At the very Periphery of Corporate Vision and Awareness…..

• The Cosmology Revolution – new and exciting advances in Astrophysics and Cosmology (String Theory and Wave Mechanics) is leading Physicists towards new questions and answers concerning the make-up of stellar clusters and galaxies, stellar populations in different types of galaxy, and the relationships between high-stellar populations and local clusters. What are the implications for galactic star-formation histories and relative stellar formation times – overall, resolved and unresolved – and their consequent impact on the evolution of life itself ?.

• The Quantum Revolution – The quantum revolution could turn many ideas of science fiction into science fact - from meta-materials with mind-boggling properties such as invisibility, limitless quantum energy via room temperature superconductors an onwards and upwards to Arthur C Clarke's space elevator. Some scientists even forecast that in the latter half of the century everybody will have a personal fabricator that re-arranges molecules to produce everything from almost anything. How ultimately will we use this gift? Will we have the wisdom to match our mastery of matter like Solomon? Or will we abuse our technology strength and finally bring down the temple around our ears like Samson?

• The Nano-Revolution – To meet the challenges in an ever more resource-limited world, innovation and technology must play an increasing role. Nanotechnology, the engineering of matter at the atomic scale to create materials with unique properties and capabilities, will play a significant part in ensuring that risks to critical water resources for future cities are addressed. Nanotechnology “has the potential to be a key element in providing effective, environmentally sustainable solutions for supplying potable water for human use and clean water for agricultural and industrial uses.”


• The Energy Revolution • Oil Shale • Kerogen • Tar Sands • Methane Hydrate • The

Hydrogen Economy • Nuclear Fusion • Every year we consume the quantity of Fossil

Fuel energy which took nature 3 million tears to create. Unsustainable fossil fuel energy

dependency based on Carbon will eventually be replaced by the Hydrogen Economy

and Nuclear Fusion. The conquest of hydrogen technology, the science required to

support a Hydrogen Economy (to free up humanity from energy dependency) and

Nuclear Fusion (to free up explorers from gravity dependency) is the final frontier which,

when crossed, will enable inter-stellar voyages of exploitation across our Galaxy.

• Nuclear Fusion requires the creation and sustained maintenance of the enormous

pressures and temperatures to be found at the Sun’s core This is a most challenging

technology that scientists here on Earth are only now just beginning to explore and

evaluate its extraordinary opportunities. To initiate Nuclear Fusion requires creating the

same conditions right here on Earth that are found the very centre of the Sun. This

means replicating the environment needed to support quantum nuclear processes which

take place at huger temperatures and immense pressures in the Solar core – conditions

extreme enough to overcome the immense nuclear forces which resist the collision and

fusion of two deuterium atoms (heavy hydrogen – one proton and one neutron) to form a

single Helium atom – accompanied by the release of a vast amount of Nuclear energy.


• Renewable Resources • Solar Power • Tidal Power • Hydro-electricity • Wind Power • The Hydrogen Economy • Nuclear Fusion • Any natural resource is a renewable resource if it is replenished by natural processes at a rate compatible with or faster than its rate of consumption by human activity or other natural uses or attrition. Some renewable resources - solar radiation, tides, hydroelectricity, wind – can also classified as perpetual resources, in that they can never be consumed at a rate which is in excess of their long-term availability due to natural processes of perpetual renewal. The term renewable resource also carries the implication of prolonged or perpetual sustainability for the absorption, processing or re-cycling of waste products via natural ecological and environmental processes.

• For the purposes of Nuclear Fission, Thorium may in future replaced enriched Uranium-235. Thorium is much more abundant, far easier to mine, extract and process and far less dangerous than Uranium. Thorium is used extensively in Biomedical procedures, and its radioactive decay products are much more benign.

• Sustainability is a characteristic of a process or mechanism that can be maintained indefinitely at a certain constant level or state – without showing any long-term degradation, decline or collapse.. This concept, in its environmental usage, refers to the potential longevity of vital human ecological support systems - such as the biosphere, ecology, the environment the and man-made systems of industry, agronomy, agriculture, forestry, fisheries - and the planet's climate and natural processes and cycles upon which they all depend.


• Trans-humanism – advocates the ethical use of technology to extend current human form and function - supporting the use of future science and technology to enhance the human genome capabilities and capacities in order to overcome undesirable and unnecessary aspects of the present human condition.

• The Intelligence Revolution – Artificial Intelligence will revolutionise homes, workplaces and lifestyles. Augmented Reality will create new virtual worlds – such as the interior of Volcanoes or Nuclear Reactors, the bottom of the Ocean or the surface of the Moon, Venus or Mars - so realistic they will rival the physical world. Robots with human-level intelligence may finally become a reality, and at the ultimate stage of mastery, we'll even be able to merge human capacities with machine intelligence and attributes – via the man-machine interface.

• The Biotech Revolution – Genome mapping and Genetic Engineering is now bringing doctors and scientists towards first discovery, and then understanding, control, and finally mastery of human health and wellbeing. Digital Healthcare and Genetic Medicine will allow doctors and scientists to positively manage successful patient outcomes – even over diseases previously considered fatal. Genetics and biotechnology promise a future of unprecedented health, wellbeing and longevity. DNA screening could diagnose and gene therapy prevent or cure many diseases. Thanks to laboratory-grown tissues and organs, the human body could be repaired as easily as a car, with spare parts readily available to order. Ultimately, the ageing process itself could ultimately be slowed or even halted.


• Global Massive Change is an evaluation of global capacities and limitations. It includes both utopian and dystopian views of the emerging world future state, in which climate, the environment, ecology and even geology are dominated by the indirect impact of human activity and the direct impact of human manipulation: –

1. Human Impact is now the major factor in climate change, environmental and

ecological degradation.

2. Environmental Degradation - man now moves more rock and earth than do all of the natural geological processes

3. Ecological Degradation – biological extinction rate - is currently greater than that of the Permian-Triassic boundary (PTB) extinction event

4. Food, Energy, Water (FEW) Crisis – increasing scarcity of Natural Resources

• Society’s growth-associated impacts on its own ecological and environmental support systems, for example intensive agriculture causing exhaustion of natural resources by the Mayan and Khmer cultures, de-forestation and over-grazing causing catastrophic ecological damage and resulting in climatic change – for example, the Easter Island culture, the de-population of upland moors and highlands in Britain from the Iron Age onwards – including the Iron Age retreat from northern and southern English uplands, the Scottish Highland Clearances and replacement of subsistence crofting by deer and grouse for hunting and sheep for wool on major Scottish Highland Estates and the current sub-Saharan de-forestation and subsequent desertification by semi-nomadic pastoralists

The Management of Uncertainty A Brief History of Chaos…..

Mechanical Processes –

Thermodynamics (Complexity and Chaos Theory) – governs the behaviour of Systems Classical Mechanics (Newtonian Physics) – governs the behaviour of all everyday objects Quantum Mechanics – governs the behaviour of unimaginably small sub-atomic particles Relativity Theory – governs the behaviour of impossibly super-massive cosmic structures

Wave Mechanics (String Theory) – integrates the behaviour of every size and type of object

Executive Summary - The Management of Uncertainty

• It has long been recognized that one of the most important competitive factors for any

organization to master is the management of uncertainty. Uncertainty is the major

intangible factor contributing towards the risk of failure in every process, at every level,

in every type of business. The way that we think about the future must mirror how the

future actually unfolds. As we have learned from recent experience, the future is not a

straightforward extrapolation of simple, single-domain trends. We now have to consider

ways in which the possibility of random, chaotic and radically disruptive events may be

factored into enterprise threat assessment and risk management frameworks and

incorporated into decision-making structures and processes.

• Managers and organisations often aim to “stay focused” and maintain a narrow

perspective in dealing with key business issues, challenges and targets. A

concentration of focus may risk overlooking Weak Signals indicating potential issues

and events, agents and catalysts of change. Such Weak Signals – along with their

resultant Wild Card and Black Swan Events - represent early warning of radically

disruptive future global transformations – which are even now taking shape at the very

periphery of corporate awareness, perception and vision – or just beyond.


• There are many kinds of Stochastic or Random processes that impact on every area

of Nature and Human Activity. Randomness can be found in Science and Technology

and in Humanities and the Arts. Random events are taking place almost everywhere

we look – for example from Complex Systems and Chaos Theory to Cosmology and

the distribution and flow of energy and matter in the Universe, from Brownian motion

and quantum theory to fractal branching and linear transformations. There are further

examples – atmospheric turbulence in Weather Systems and Climatology, and system

dependence influencing complex orbital and solar cycles. Other examples include

sequences of Random Events, Weak Signals, Wild Cards and Black Swan Events

occurring in every aspect of Nature and Human Activity – from the Environment and

Ecology - to Politics, Economics and Human Behaviour and in the outcomes of current

and historic wars, campaigns, battles and skirmishes - and much, much more.

• These Stochastic or Random processes are agents of change that may precipitate

global impact-level events which either threaten the very survival of the organisation -

or present novel and unexpected opportunities for expansion and growth. The ability to

include Weak Signals and peripheral vision into the strategy and planning process may

therefore be critical in contributing towards the continued growth, success, wellbeing

and survival of both individuals and organisations at the micro-level – as well as cities,

states and federations at the macro-level - as witnessed in the rise and fall of empires.


Random Processes

• Random Processes may influence many natural and human phenomena, such as: -

– the history of an object

– the outcome of an event

– the execution of a process

• Randomness may be somewhat difficult to demonstrate, as true Randomness in chaotic

system behaviour is not always readily or easily distinguishable from any of the “noise”

that we may find in Complex Systems – such as foreground and background wave

harmonics, resonance and interference. Complex Systems may be influenced by both

internal and external factors which remain hidden – either unrecognised or unknown.

These hidden and unknown factors may exist far beyond our ability to detect them – but

nevertheless, still exert influence. The existence of weak internal or external forces acting

on systems may not be visible to the observer – these subliminal temporal forces can

influence Complex System behaviour in such a way that the presence of imperceptibly tiny

inputs, acting on a system, amplified in effect over many system cycles - are ultimately

able to create massive observable changes to outcomes in complex system behaviour.


• Uncertainty is the outcome of the disruptive effect that chaos and randomness

introduces into our daily lives. Research into stochastic (random) processes

looks towards how we might anticipate, prepare for and manage the chaos and

uncertainty which acts on complex systems – including natural systems such as

Cosmology and Climate, as well as human systems such as Politics and the

Economy - in order that we may anticipate future change and prepare for it…..

• Classical Mechanics (Newtonian Physics)

– Any apparent randomness is as a result of Unknown Forces

• Relativity Theory

– Apparent randomness or asymmetry is as a result of Quantum effects

• Quantum Mechanics

– Every Quantum event is truly and intrinsically both symmetrical and random

• Wave Mechanics (String Theory)

– Any apparent randomness and asymmetry is as a result of Unknown Forces


Domain Scope / Scale Randomness Pioneers

Classical Mechanics

(Newtonian Physics)

Everyday objects Any apparent randomness is as

a result of Unknown Forces

Sir Isaac Newton

Chemistry Molecules Lavoisier

Atomic Theory Atoms Each and every Quantum event

is truly and intrinsically fully

symmetrical and random

Max Plank, Niels Bohr

Quantum Mechanics Sub-atomic particles Erwin Schrodinger ,

Werner Heisenberg,

Paul Dirac,

Richard Feynman

Astronomy Common, Observable

Celestial Objects

Any apparent randomness or

asymmetry may be as a result

of Quantum effects or other

Unknown Forces acting early in

the history of Space-Time

Galileo, Copernicus,

Kepler, Lovell, Hubble

Cosmology Super-massive

Celestial Objects

Hoyle, Ryall, Rees,

Penrose, Bell-Burnell

Relativity Theory The Universe


asymmetry is as a result of

Unknown Forces / Dimensions

Albert Einstein,

Hermann Minkowski,

Stephen Hawking

Wave Mechanics

(String Theory or

Quantum Dynamics)

The Universe,

Membranes and

Hyperspace

Michael Green,

Michio Kaku



– Classical Mechanics (Newtonian Physics) governs the behaviour of everyday objects

– any apparent randomness is as a result of unimaginably small, unobservable and

unmeasurable Unknown Forces - either internal or external - acting upon a System.


– governs the behaviour of unimaginably small objects (fundamental sub-atomic particles)

– all events are truly and intrinsically both symmetrical and random (Hawking Paradox).


– Relativity Theory governs the behaviour of impossibly super-massive cosmic structures

(such as Galaxies and Galactic Clusters) which populate and structure the Universe

– any apparent randomness or asymmetry is as a result of Quantum Effects, Unknown

Forces or Unknown Dimensions acting very early in the history of Universal Space-Time

• Wave Mechanics (String Theory or Quantum Dynamics)

– Wave Mechanics integrates the behaviour of every size and type of physical object


Forces or Unknown Dimensions acting on the Universe, Membranes or in Hyperspace


• The Temporal Wave is a novel and innovative method for Visual Modelling and Exploration of

Geospatial “Big Data” - simultaneously within a Time (history) and Space (geographic) context.

The problems encountered in exploring and analysing vast volumes of spatial–temporal

information in today's data-rich landscape – are becoming increasingly difficult to manage

effectively. In order to overcome the problem of data volume and scale in a Time (history) and

Space (location) context requires not only traditional location–space and attribute–space

analysis common in GIS Mapping and Spatial Analysis - but now with the additional dimension

of time–space analysis. The Temporal Wave supports a new method of Visual Exploration for

Geospatial (location) data within a Temporal (timeline) context.

• This time-visualisation approach integrates Geospatial (location) data within a Temporal

(timeline) data along with data visualisation techniques - thus improving accessibility,

exploration and analysis of the huge amounts of geo-spatial data used to support geo-visual

“Big Data” analytics. The temporal wave combines the strengths of both linear timeline and

cyclical wave-form analysis – and is able to represent data both within a Time (history) and

Space (geographic) context simultaneously – and even at different levels of granularity. Linear

and cyclic trends in space-time data may be represented in combination with other graphic

representations typical for location–space and attribute–space data-types. The Temporal Wave

can be used in roles as a time–space data reference system, as a time–space continuum

representation tool, and as time–space interaction tool.


• Randomness. Neither data-driven nor model-driven macro-economic or micro-economic

models currently available to us today - seem able to deal with the concept or impact of

Random Events (uncertainty). We therefore need to consider and factor in further novel

and disruptive (systemic) approaches which offer us the possibility to manage uncertainty.

We can do this by searching for, detecting and identifying Weak Signals – which are tiny,

unexpected variations or disturbances in system outputs – surprises – predicating the

possible existence of hidden data relationships which are masked or concealed within the

general background system “noise”. Weak Signals are caused by the presence of small

unrecognised or unknown forces acting on the system. Weak Signals in turn may indicate

the possible future appearance of emerging chaotic, and radically disruptive Wild Card or

Black Swan events beginning to form on the detectable Horizon – or even just beyond.

• Random Events must then be factored into Complex Systems Modelling. Complex

Systems interact with unseen forces – which in turn act to inject disorder, randomness,

uncertainty, chaos and disruption. The Global Economy, and other Complex Adaptive

Systems, may in future be considered and modelled successfully as a very large set of

multiple interacting Ordered (Constrained) Complex Systems - each individual System

loosely coupled with all of the others, and every System with its own clear set of rules and

an ordered (restricted) number of elements and classes, relationships and types.

Randomness The Nature of Uncertainty

The Nature of Uncertainty – Randomness

Classical (Newtonian) Physics – apparent randomness is as a result of Unknown Forces Relativity Theory – any apparent randomness or asymmetry is as a result of Quantum effects

Quantum Mechanics – all events are truly and intrinsically both symmetrical and random Wave (String) Theory –apparent randomness and asymmetry is as a result of Unknown Forces

Space-Time and Energy-Matter

Minkowski Space-time Continuum

• In1907 the German mathematical physicist Hermann Minkowski developed the concept

of a single space-time continuum - which provides a conceptual framework for all the

mathematical proofs used in relativity - including Albert Einstein's general and special

theory of relativity. Minkowski space-time is an integrated and unified four-dimensional

continuum - composed of three Positional Dimensions (Loci or Vectors x, y and z

coordinates) defining Space (vector / position) – which is entirely integrated and wholly

unified with a fourth Temporal Dimension (t coordinate) – defining Time (history).

• Minkowski quickly realised that the preliminary work on relativity theory could best be

explained and understood in a multi-dimensional universe which extended beyond the

three spatial dimensions (x, y and z axes) - to include a temporal dimension (t axis) - as

the foundation of a new, non-Euclidean four-dimensional geometry. Minkowski coupled

the two separate dimensions of Space and Time together to create a unified four-

dimensional Space-Time continuum - which was then employed in his own treatment of

a four-dimensional study of electrodynamics. This study involved a combination of two

previously separate systems – Space (with x, y and z axes) and Time (t axis) – to form

Space-Time (with x, y, z and t axes). He noticed that the invariant interval between

two events shared some of the properties of distance in Euclidean three-dimensional

geometry and formulated this invariant interval as the square root of a sum and

difference of squares of the intervals of both Space and Time.

Minkowski

Space-Time continuum

• In an attempt to understand the previous works of Lorentz and Einstein, during 1907 Hermann Minkowski synthesised a revolutionary four-dimensional view of a single, integrated space-time continuum.

• Until the development of Minkowski space-time continuum - the three-dimensional coordinate system describing Space (position) in Classical (Newtonian) physics and the other universal dimension, the flow of Time, were considered to exist independently.


• Space (position) and Time (history) flow inextricably together in a single direction –

towards the future – just as a river can only flow downhill, towards the sea. Space and

Time can only exist together within a single, unified Space-Time continuum. Without

Space – there can be no Time , and without Time – there can be no Space

• Minkowski space-time is also often referred to as Minkowski space or the Minkowski

universe. . In order to exploit the principles of the Minkowski space-time continuum, this

type of coupling must fully demonstrate that the history of a particle or the

transformation of a process over time is dependent on both its spatial and historical

components. Minkowski space-time is used predominately in the study of relativity,

although it can also be applied to other subjects and fields of human endeavour

involving the coupling of time and spatial vectors –for example, in “Big Data” which is

used for Predictive Analytics, Geospatial Propensity Modelling and Future Analysis. .


• Using this concept, events which are localized in both space and time may be

considered as the analogues of points in three-dimensional geometry. Thus the Time

dimension in the history of a single particle or the timeline of an event in Minkowski

space-time - resembles the arc of a curve in a three-dimensional Space, and is thus

fully dependent on both its spatial and historical components.

• Like Space, Time is a Dimension – but Time only flows in a single direction, as does a

River. Time and Space can only exist together within a single, unified Space-Time

continuum. Without Time – there can be no Space, and without Space – there can be

no Time. Minkowski space-time is also often referred to as Minkowski space or the

Minkowski universe. Minkowski space-time is used predominately in the study of

relativity, although it can also be applied to other subjects involving the coupling of

spatial and temporal vectors – such as Futures Studies. In order to exploit the

Minkowski space-time continuum, this type of coupling must demonstrate that the

history of a particle or the transformation of a process over time is fully dependent

on both Space and Time.


• The three-dimensional coordinate

system describing Space (position) in

Classical (Newtonian) physics along with

the other universal dimension, the flow of

Time (history), were considered to exist

and act entirely independently of each

other - until the synthesis of Space-Time

• During 1907, in an attempt to gain an

understanding of the previous work of

Lorentz and Einstein, the German

Mathematician Hermann Minkowski

developed a four-dimensional view of the

universe as a single, integrated and

unified Space-Time continuum.

• In order to demonstrate the principle

properties of the Minkowski Space-

Time continuum – any type of Spatial

and Temporal coupling must be able to

show over time that the History of a

particle or the Transformation of a

process is fully and entirely dependent

on both its Spatial (positional) and

Temporal (historic) components.

The Flow of Information through Time

• Time Present is always in some way inextricably woven into both Time Past and Time

Future – with the potential, therefore, to give us notice of future random events – before

they actually occur. Chaos Theory suggests that even the most subliminal inputs, so

minute as to be undetectable, may ultimately be amplified over many system cycles – to

grow in influence and effect to trigger dramatic changes in future outcomes. So any

given item of Information or Data (Global Content) may contain faint traces which hold

hints or clues about the outcomes of linked Clusters of Past, Present and Future

Events.

• Every item of Global Content that we find in the Present is somehow connected with

both the Past and the Future. Space-Time is a Dimension – which flows in a single

direction, as does a River. Space-Time, like water diverted along an alternative river

channel, does not flow uniformly – outside of the main channel there could well be

“submerged objects” (random events) that disturb the passage of time, and may

possess the potential capability of creating unforeseen eddies, whirlpools and currents

in the flow of Time (disorder and uncertainty) – which in turn posses the capacity to

generate ripples, and waves (chaos and disruption) – thus changing the course of the

Time-Space continuum. “Weak Signals” are “Ghosts in the Machine” of these

subliminal temporal interactions – with the capability to contain information about future

“Wild card” or “Black Swan” random events.

Space-time Disturbances

• Time, like Water, does not flow uniformly – outside the depths of the main

channel within which Time travels, there may also be submerged objects

(random events) that posses the ability to cause disturbances, eddies and

currents in the flow (disorder and uncertainty) – which in turn have the capacity

to generate ripples, whirlpools and waves (chaos and disruption) that flow

through the Space-Time continuum bringing with it the possibility for change -

thus precipitating novel and unexpected outcomes.

• These unpredictable temporal interactions (random events) may interact with

current and emerging waves, patterns and trends to cause Chaos, Disorder,

Uncertainty and Disruption – which in turn have the capacity tp generate Wild

Card or Black Swan Events – manifestations of randomness that act in such a

way as to prevent Time flowing smoothly and uniformly towards an unerringly

predictable outcome or conclusion. Random Events change the flow of Time –

thus the deflected course taken by Time interacting with Random Events means

that the Future becomes unpredictable. Instead of smooth, linear outcomes – we

experience surprises.

Minkowski


• Space (position) and

Time (history) flow

inextricably together in

a single direction –

towards the future.

• In order to exploit the

principle properties of

the Minkowski space-

time continuum, any

type of Spatial and

Temporal coupling

must be able to fully

demonstrate that the

History of a particle

or the Transformation

of a process over time

is entirely dependent

on both its spatial and

historical components.

Space-time Continuum – A Temporal Framework

The Theory of Hyperspace - Prof. Michiu Kaku

• According to this theory, before the Big Bang, our cosmos was actually a perfect ten-dimensional universe, a world where inter-dimensional travel was possible. However, this ten-dimensional universe "cracked" in two, creating two separate universes: a four- and a six- dimensional universe. The universe in which we live was born in that cosmic cataclysm. Our four-dimensional universe expanded explosively, while our twin six-dimensional universe contracted violently, until it shrank to almost infinitesimal size.

• This would explain the origin of the Big Bang. If correct, this theory demonstrates that the rapid expansion of the universe was just a rather minor aftershock of a much greater cataclysmic event, the cracking of space and time itself. The energy that drives the observed expansion of the universe is then found in the collapse of ten-dimensional space and time. According to this theory, the distant stars and galaxies are receding from us at astronomical speeds because of the original collapse of ten-dimensional space and time. This theory predicts that our universe still has a dwarf twin, a companion universe containing the residual dimensions, curled up into a small six-dimensional ball that is too small to be detected or observed.....

Space-time Continuum – A Temporal Framework

String Theory of Hyperspace - Prof. Michiu Kaku

• Many scientists now believe, although we cannot yet prove it, that the multiversity (multiple

universes) hyperspace which contains our own universe – can exist in up to eleven dimensions.

Think of this hyperspace as a multi-dimensional arena in which there are floating a vast number

of bubbles. The surface membrane of every one of these bubbles represents an entire universe,

so our own universe exists on a single bubble membrane. It’s a three dimensional bubble. This

three dimensional bubble is rapidly expanding – according to the Big Bang theory - sometimes

these bubbles can bump into each other, at other times they could split apart – this is the event

that theoretical cosmologists think caused the Big Bang. So we even have a theory of the origin

of the Big Bang itself. In string theory we can have bubbles consisting of different dimensions.

• The highest stable number of dimension in a universe is 11. Universes containing dimensions

beyond 11 become unstable and collapse. When we attempt to describe the mathematics

behind the theory of a 13-, 15-dimensional universe, those universes are intrinsically unstable

and all of them rapidly collapse down to an 11-dimensional universe. Even in the case of an 11-

dimensionsional universe - bubbles can split apart to become 3-dimensional, 4-dimensional , 5-

dimensional and 6-dimensional universes. These bubbles are membranes, so for short we call

them “branes”. Branes may exist with different numbers of dimensions. If we use P to represent

the total number of dimensions belonging to each bubble or membrane – then they become p-

branes. So a p-brane is simply a universe with variable numbers of dimensions – large numbers

of which are floating in a much larger arena - the hyperspace which we discussed earlier.

Geological Timelines


• Uncertainty is the outcome of the disruptive effect that chaos and randomness

introduces into our daily lives. Research into stochastic (random) processes

looks towards how we might anticipate, prepare for and manage the chaos and

uncertainty which acts on complex systems – including natural systems such as

Cosmology and Climate, as well as human systems such as Politics and the

Economy - in order that we may anticipate future change and prepare for it…..


– Any apparent randomness is as a result of Unknown Forces


– Apparent randomness or asymmetry is as a result of Quantum effects


– Every Quantum event is truly and intrinsically both symmetrical and random

• Wave Mechanics (String Theory)

– Any apparent randomness and asymmetry is as a result of Unknown Forces

Randomness

Domain Scope / Scale Randomness Pioneers

Classical Mechanics

(Newtonian Physics)

Everyday objects Any apparent randomness is as

a result of Unknown Forces

Sir Isaac Newton

Chemistry Molecules Lavoisier, Priestley

Atomic Theory Atoms Each and every Quantum event

is truly and intrinsically fully


Max Plank, Niels Bohr

Quantum Mechanics Sub-atomic particles Erwin Schrodinger ,

Werner Heisenberg,

Paul Dirac,

Richard Feynman

Astronomy Common, Observable

Celestial Objects


asymmetry may be as a result

of Quantum effects or other

Unknown Forces acting early in

the history of Space-Time




Celestial Objects

Hoyle, Ryall, Rees,


Relativity Theory The Universe


asymmetry is as a result of

Unknown Forces / Dimensions

Albert Einstein,

Hermann Minkowski,

Stephen Hawking

Wave Mechanics

(String Theory or

Quantum Dynamics)

The Universe,

Membranes and

Hyperspace

Michael Green,

Michio Kaku

Space-Time v. Energy-Matter


– Classical Mechanics (Newtonian Physics) governs the behaviour of everyday objects

– any apparent randomness is as a result of unimaginably small, unobservable and

unmeasurable Unknown Forces - either internal or external - acting upon a System.


– governs the behaviour of unimaginably small objects (fundamental sub-atomic particles)

– all events are truly and intrinsically both symmetrical and random (Hawking Paradox).


– Relativity Theory governs the behaviour of impossibly super-massive cosmic structures

(such as Galaxies and Galactic Clusters) which populate and structure the Universe


Forces or Unknown Dimensions acting very early in the history of Universal Space-Time

• Wave Mechanics (String Theory or Quantum Dynamics)

– Wave Mechanics integrates the behaviour of every size and type of physical object


Forces or Unknown Dimensions acting on the Universe, Membranes or in Hyperspace

Randomness Domain Scope Scale Randomness Pioneers

Classical Mechanics

(Newtonian Physics)

Common, everyday and

local Celestial Objects

1 Solar Mass Apparent randomness is a

result of Unknown Forces

Sir Isaac Newton

Biology Organisms Linnaeus, Darwin, Huxley

Chemistry Molecules Lavoisier, Priestley

Atomic Theory Atoms Max Plank, Niels Bohr

Thermodynamics Energy 10.(34) atoms Newcomen, Trevithick,

Quantum Mechanics Sub-atomic particles 10.(34) atoms Quantum events are truly

and intrinsically both fully


Schrodinger, Heisenberg,

Dirac, Feynman

Geology Earth 1 Earth Mass Apparent randomness is a

result of Unknown Forces

Hutton, Lyell, Wagner

Astronomy Observable local and

distant Celestial Objects

10.(24) solar

masses

Any apparent randomness

or asymmetry may be as a

result of Quantum effects or

other Unknown Forces

acting early in the history of

Space-time / Energy-matter



Cosmology Super-massive Celestial

Objects and Structures

10.(34) atoms Hoyle, Ryall, Rees,


Relativity Theory The Universe 10.(34) atoms Einstein, Minkowski,

Stephen Hawking

Wave Mechanics

(String Theory or

Quantum Dynamics)

The Universe,

Membranes and

Hyperspace

10.(34) atoms Randomness or asymmetry

is a result of Unknown

Forces and Dimensions

Michael Green,

Michio Kaku

Wave Mechanics (String Theory)

• By late 1970s, quantum field theory and Einstein's general theory of relativity (classical

theory of gravity) proved to be suitable theoretical frameworks to address many or most of

observed features of our universe, from elementary particles like electrons and protons to

evolution of the universe in the cosmological scale.

• However, there are also many fundamental problems which remain to be solved. Elevating

gravity to quantum level had been one grand unsolved problem since the days of Einstein,

while other smaller but equally mysterious problems, such as how to solve quantum

chromo-dynamics (QCD) why the cosmological constant of our universe is so small

(thought to vanish at some point but later proven otherwise by observation), and whether

properties of black holes are consistent with quantum principle, were abundant as well.

• Now, 30 years since then, many theoretical physicists seem to believe that string theory

did or will offer answers to many such questions. The original idea of string theory that

everything in nature originates from loops or segments of strings moving in the relativistic

way, seemed ludicrous at first. Yet, its unique ability to define a quantum mechanically

consistent gravity is not something that theorists could easily resist. Existence of gravity in

string theory was recognized as early as 1975, which was then elevated to a realistic

computational framework in 1980's, but putting it to actual use was another problem.


• Better understanding and use of string theory became possible through the realization

in the 1990's that there are hidden symmetries, known as "duality." Recently, it has

been shown that a strongly coupled regime of one superstring theory can sometimes be

understood as a weakly coupled regime of another, "dual" superstring theory. Such

relations demonstrated that different models of superstrings are actually different

perturbative realizations of one and the same theory. One ultimate theory, which was

conjectured to contain all superstring theory as special cases, has been named M

theory. Another lesson from these developments in the 1990's is that string theory is not

only made up of open and closed strings, but all kinds of other extended objects which

are postulated to exist in Hyperspace – including D-branes and M-branes.

• Probably the most celebrated example of dualities, found in 1997 and has been

exploited and generalized widely since then, is AdS/CFT. In its most general

reincarnation, this model asserts equivalence between certain pairs of open string

theory and closed string theory. In practice, one actually considers the limiting cases

where the open string side reduces to a strongly coupled gauge field theory and/or the

closed string side reduces to classical gravitational theory.


• The equivalence offers completely new methods for solving many strongly interacting

theories, most notably quantum chromo-dynamics (QCD). The very acute issue of black

hole in quantum gravity was also addressed through these developments, resulting in a

consensus among many theoretical physicists that quantum principle is probably not

destroyed by existence of quantum black holes in string theory. A complete resolution of

the problem, applicable to all type of black holes is, however, still unavailable.

• Pioneers of string theory such as Michael Green and Michio Kaku hoped that they might

be able to "derive" a unique theory of universe where every fundamental law of nature can

be predicted unambiguously and accurately. With better understanding over the last twenty

years, we now begin to realize that this hope was probably mislaid. String theory is far

more than a single unified theory of the universe. It proved to be a new physical modelling

paradigm and framework – even more so than the ubiquitous quantum field theory.

• Whether and how we can describe a new model of the universe within this framework is a

very highly constrained and difficult problem, which still carries significant uncertainty when

compared to conventional model building methods in particle physics and in cosmology.

Space-Time v. Energy-Matter Domain Object Process Outcome Timeline Size Range

Classical Mechanics

(Newtonian Physics)

Common, Everyday

and Celestial Objects

Motion Change of

Position

4.6 x 10.(12) yr 1 Solar Mass

Biology Organisms Evolution Life and Death 3.7 x 10.(12) yr

Chemistry Molecules Transformation Change in State 1.37 x 10.(13) yr

Atomic Theory Atoms Interaction Change in State 1.37 x (10) 13 yr

Thermodynamics Energy (Entropy and

Enthalpy)

Transformation

and Flow

Change in State 10.(37) yr 10.(34) atoms

Quantum Mechanics Sub-atomic particles Interaction Objects created

and destroyed

10.(37) yr 10.(34) atoms

Geology Earth Transformation Change in State

and Position

4.6 x 10.(12) yr 1 Earth Mass

Astronomy Observable Celestial

Objects

Motion Change in State

and Position

1.37 x 10.(13) yr 10.(24) solar

masses


Celestial Objects

Transformation Change in State

and Position

10.(37) yr 10.(34) atoms

Relativity Theory The Universe Interaction Change in State

and Position

10.(37) yr 10.(34) atoms

Wave Mechanics

(String Theory or

Quantum Dynamics)

The Universe,

Membranes and

Hyperspace

Motion, Flow,

Transformation

and Interaction

Objects created

and destroyed,

with change in

State and Position

10.(37) yr 10.(34) atoms

Space-Time Analytics – The Temporal Wave

• The Temporal Wave is a novel and innovative method for Visual Modelling and Exploration of

Time-series Geospatial Data Sets – data with dimensions which exist simultaneously with a Time

(history) and Space (geographic) context. The problems encountered in exploring and analysing

vast volumes of spatial–temporal information in today's data-rich landscape – are becoming

increasingly difficult to manage effectively. In order to overcome the problem of data volume and

scale in a Time (history) and Space (location) context requires not only traditional location–

space and attribute–space analysis common in GIS Mapping and Spatial Analysis - but now with

the additional dimension of time–space analysis. The Temporal Wave supports a new method of

Visual Exploration for Geospatial (location) data within a Temporal (timeline) context.


(timeline) dataset - along with data visualisation techniques - thus improving accessibility,

exploration and analysis of the huge amounts of geo-spatial data used to support geo-visual “Big

Data” analytics. The temporal wave combines the strengths of both linear timeline and cyclical

wave-form analysis – and is able to represent data both within a Time (history) and Space

(geographic) context simultaneously – and even at different levels of granularity. Linear and

cyclic trends in space-time data may be represented in combination with other graphic

representations typical for location–space and attribute–space data-types. The Temporal Wave

can be used in roles as a time–space data reference system, as a time–space continuum

representation tool, and as time–space interaction tool.

The Flow of Information through Time

• Time Present is always in some way inextricably woven into both Time Past and Time

Future – with the potential, therefore, to give us notice of future random events – before

they actually occur. Chaos Theory suggests that even the most subliminal inputs, so

minute as to be undetectable, may ultimately be amplified over many system cycles – to

grow in influence and effect to trigger dramatic changes in future outcomes. So any

given item of Information or Data (Global Content) may contain faint traces which hold

hints or clues about the outcomes of linked Clusters of Past, Present and Future Events.

• Every item of Global Content that we find in the Present is somehow connected with both

the Past and the Future. Space-Time is a Dimension – which flows in a single direction,

as does a River. Space-Time, like water diverted along an alternative river channel,

does not flow uniformly – outside of the main channel there could well be “submerged

objects” (random events) that disturb the passage of time, and may possess the potential

capability of creating unforeseen eddies, whirlpools and currents in the flow of Time

(disorder and uncertainty) – which in turn posses the capacity to generate ripples, and

waves (chaos and disruption) – thus changing the course of the Space-Time continuum.

“Weak Signals” are “Ghosts in the Machine” of these subliminal temporal interactions –

with the capability to contain information about future “Wild card” or “Black Swan” random

events.

Temporal Disturbances in the Space–Time Continuum

• Weak Signals, Strong Signals, Wild Cards and Black Swan Events – are a sequence of waves linked and integrated in ascending order of magnitude, which have a common source or origin - either a single Random Event instance or arising from a linked series of chaotic and disruptive Random Events - an Event Storm. These Random Events propagate through the space-time continuum as a related and integrated series of waves with an ascending order of magnitude and impact – the first wave to arrive is the fastest travelling,- Weak Signals - something like a faint echo of a Random Event which may in turn be followed in turn by a ripple (Strong Signals) then possibly by a wave (Wild Card) - which may indicate the unfolding a further increase in magnitude and intensity which finally arrives catastrophically - something like a tsunami (Black Swan Event).

Sequence of Events - Emerging Waves Stage View of Wave Series Development

1. Random Event 1. Discovery

2. Weak Signals 1.1 Establishment

3. Strong Signals 1.2 Development

4. Wild Cards 2. Growth

5. Black Swan Event 3. Plateau

4. Decline

5. Collapse

5.1 Renewal

5.2 Replacement

Spatial versus Temporal Domains Spatial Analysis

(Location)

Temporal Analysis (History)

Sub-atomic Phenomena Transitive

Phenomena Long-lived Phenomena

Space-Time Continuum

Global Phenomena Economic Analysis

Cosmic Space-Time

Temporal Analysis

Earth Sciences

“Goal-seeking” Empirical Research Domains Applied (Experimental) Science

Classical Mechanics (Newtonian Physics)

Applied mathematics

Chemistry

Engineering

Geography

Geology

Geo-physics Environmental Sciences

Archaeology

Palaeontology

Complex and Chaotic Research Domains

Narrative (Interpretive) Science

Futures Studies

Weather Forecasting

Strategic Foresight

Complex Systems – Chaos Theory

Predictive Analytics

Data Mining “Big Data” Analytics

Climate Change

Statistics

Cluster Theory Particle Physics

Quantum Mechanics

“Blue Sky” – Pure Research Domains

Pure (Theoretical) Science

Phenomenology

Anthropology and Pre-history

Social Sciences

Sociology

Business Studies / Administration / Strategy

Psychology / Psychiatry / Medicine / Surgery

Behavioural Research Domains

Economics

Life Sciences

History Arts Literature Religion

Law Philosophy Politics

Arts and the Humanities

Biological basis of Behaviour

Biology Ecology

Clinical Trials / Morbidity / Actuarial Science

String Theory

Cosmology

Astronomy

Relativity

Astrophysics

Astrology

Future Management

Pure mathematics

Computational Theory / Information Theory

Taxonomy and Classification

Quantitative Analysis

Universal Phenomena

Local Phenomena

Regional Phenomena

Short-lived Phenomena

Atomic Space-Time

Micro- Phenomena

Space-Time Analytics • 4D Geospatial Analytics is the

profiling and analysis of large

aggregated datasets in order to

determine a ‘natural’ structure of

groupings provides an important

technique for many statistical and

analytic applications.

• Environmental and Demographic

Geospatial Cluster Analysis - on the

basis of profile similarities or

geographic distribution - is a statistical

method whereby no prior assumptions

are made concerning the number of

groups or group hierarchies and

internal structure. Geo-spatial and

geodemographic techniques are

frequently used in order to profile and

segment populations by ‘natural’

groupings - such as common

behavioural traits, Clinical Trial,

Morbidity or Actuarial outcomes - along

with many other shared characteristics

and common factors.....

Space-Time Analytics – London Timeline

Space-Time Analytics – London Timeline

• How did London evolve from its creation as a Roman city in 43AD into the crowded, chaotic

cosmopolitan megacity we see today? What will London look like in the future? The London

Evolution Animation takes a holistic view of what has been constructed in the capital over

different historical periods – what has been lost, what is saved and what will be protected.

• Greater London covers 600 square miles. Up until the 17th century, however, the capital city

was crammed largely into a single square mile which today is marked by the skyscrapers which

are a feature of the financial district of the City. Unlike other historical cities such as Athens or

Rome, with an obvious patchwork of districts from different periods, London's individual

structures scheduled sites and listed buildings are in many cases constructed gradually by parts

assembled during different periods. Researchers who have tried previously to locate and

document archaeological structures and research historic references will know that these

features, when plotted, appear scrambled up like pieces of different jigsaw puzzles – all

scattered across the contemporary London cityscape.

• This visualisation, originally created for the Almost Lost exhibition by the Bartlett Centre for

Advanced Spatial Analysis (CASA), explores the historic evolution of the city by plotting a

timeline of the development of the road network - along with documented buildings and other

features – through 4D geospatial analysis of a vast number of diverse geographic,

archaeological and historic data sets.

Randomness

SIX VISIONS OF THE FUTURE – THE ELTVILLE MODEL

There are six viewpoints or lenses from which we may understand the future: - 1. BLUE lenses are for PROBABLISTIC FUTURE – RATIONAL FUTURISTS

2. RED lenses are for FUTURE THREATS – DISRUPTIVE FUTURISTS

3. GREEN lenses are for FUTURE OPPORTUNISTIIES – EVOLUTIONARY FUTURISTS

4. GOLD lenses are for DESIRED FUTURE VISION – GOAL ANALYSTS

5. INDIGO lenses are for STEADY STATE FUTURES – EXTRAPOLATION / PATTERN ANALYSTS

6. The VIOLET lenses are for a DETERMINISITC FUTURE – STRATEGIC POSITIVISTS

THE ELTVILLE MODEL

• Many of the issues that we encounter in Future Management Studies – from driving

Private-sector strategic management to formulating Government Political, Economic and

Social Policies - result from attempts to integrate multiple viewpoints from different

people. Everybody subconsciously believes that other people thinks about, articulates and

understands the Future Narrative in exactly the same way as they do. Stakeholders often

tend to assume that everyone else is looking through the same ”futures lenses” - which

may lead to misunderstanding, conflict, frustration or failure.

• The Eltville Model consists of a process model that describes six different viewpoints or

perspectives of the future (the “six futures lenses") - as a sequence of mental steps (for

exploration and discovery in a workshop) environment, and a results model, which

captures the results achieved in the process as "thought objects“.

The SIX futures lenses below make it easier to analyse and understand the future: -

1. BLUE lenses are for PROBABLISTIC FUTURE – RATIONAL FUTURISTS




5. INDIGO lenses are for STEADY STATE FUTURE – EXTRAPOLATION and PATTERN ANALYSTS

6. VIOLET lenses are for DETERMINISITC FUTURE – STRATEGIC POSITIVISTS

THE ELTVILLE MODEL by Pero Mićić


• The Eltville Model serves as a holistic "cognitive map" for terms such as scenario,

vision, trend, wild card, assumption etc, - which may frequently be used in varying

context in different ways by diverse stakeholders. The terms used in the Eltville

Model are unambiguously defined and semantically related to each other - and are

further based on wide futures phenomenological analysis,.

– The ELTVILLE MODEL helps us all to structure our future scenarios and thoughts

about future outcomes to formulate future strategy in a coherent way without omitting

any important determining factors or neglecting any essential viewpoints.

– The ELTVILLE MODEL helps us to obtain some clarity on the most important Future

Management outcomes, goals and objectives and communicate in a clear narrative

about the future of our market and our companies place in that market.

– The ELTVILLE MODEL guides us to implement Strategy Analysis and Future

Management methods and tools in the areas where they are most effective.

• The Eltville Model is a result of observation and phenomenological analysis of more

than 800 workshops with management teams. It was developed by Pero Mićić and is

now being developed further by the Future management Groupt consultants


• The SIX futures lenses and the resulting "ELTVILLE MODEL" bridges the gap between strategic management and corporate planning and futures studies - research for creating a better everyday way of life .

• Using phenomenon-based scenario planning and impact analysis, the ELTVILLE FUTURE MANAGEMENT! MODEL is proven in more than a thousand projects. Future Management Group have defined the essential meaning of Future Management terms and their key application to deliver a cognitive model and a cognitive map from them.

• The ELTVILLE MODEL helps us all to apply the common Strategy Analysis and Strategic Foresight tools much more effectively within a comprehensive Futures Framework. This model also provides participants with a road map for thinking and communicating about the future with your stakeholders and an integrated future-oriented structure for managing strategy delivery projects.


1. BLUE lenses are for PROBABLISTIC FUTURE – RATIONAL FUTURISTS 2. RED lenses are for FUTURE THREATS – DISRUPTIVE FUTURISTS 3. GREEN lenses are for FUTURE OPPORTUNISTIIES – EVOLUTIONARY FUTURISTS 4. GOLD lenses are for DESIRED FUTURE VISION – GOAL ANALYSTS 5. INDIGO lenses are for STEADY STATE FUTURE – EXTRAPOLATION and PATTERN ANALYSTS 6. VIOLET lenses are for DETERMINISITC FUTURE – STRATEGIC POSITIVISTS

• The Eltville Model of Future Management is used by companies and public institutions to

support thinking and communicating about future environmental changes, the early

recognition of future markets, the development of future strategies and the building up of

future competence with a sound system of terms. The Eltville Model provides a

comprehensive and integrated terminology. It links the requirements on scientific future

management with the necessities of a company’s day-to-day business.

• The ELTVILLE MODEL has been developed through futures research in more than a

thousand workshops and projects with governmental and non-profit organizations – as well

as with major corporations around the world, - including BOSCH, Microsoft, BAYER,

AstraZeneca, Roche, Ernst+Young, Ford, Vodafone, EADS and Nestle.


1. BLUE lenses are for PROBABLISTIC FUTURE – RATIONAL FUTURISTS




5. INDIGO lenses are for STEADY STATE FUTURE – EXTRAPOLATION / PATTERN ANALYSTS

6. VIOLET lenses are for DETERMINISITC FUTURE – STRATEGIC POSITIVISTS


The Eltville Model – Rational Futurism

1. The ELTVILLE MODEL BLUE lenses are for a PROBABLISTIC FUTURE – RATIONAL FUTURISM – Rational Futurists believe that the future is, to a large extent, both unknown and unknowable. Reality is non-liner – that is, chaotic – and therefore it is impossible to predict the future. With chaos comes the potential for disruption. Possible and Alternative Futures emerge from the interaction of chaos and uncertainty amongst the interplay of current trends and emerging factors of change – presenting an inexorable mixture of challenges and opportunities.

• Probable future outcomes and events may be synthesised and implied via an intuitive assimilation and cognitive filtering of Weak Signals, inexorable trends, random and chaotic actions and disruptive Wild Card and Black Swan events. Just as the future remains uncertain, indeterminate and unpredictable, so it will be volatile and enigmatic – but it may also be subject to synthesis by man.....

The Probabilistic Future – Synthesis: - – Rational Futurism

– Weak Signals and Wild Cards

– Complex Systems and Chaos Theory

– Horizon Scanning, Monitoring and Tracking

– Cognitive Filtering and Intuitive Assimilation

– Nominal Group Conferences and Delphi Surveys

The Eltville Model – Disruptive Futurism

2. The ELTVILLE MODEL RED lenses are for FUTURE THREATS – DISRUPTIVE FUTURISM – Disruptive Futurism is an ongoing forward analysis of the impact of new and emerging factors of Disruptive Change on Environmental, Political, Economic, Social, Industrial, Agronomy and Technology and how Disruptive Change is driving Business and Technology Innovation. Understanding how current patterns, trends and extrapolations along with emerging agents and catalysts of change interact with chaos, disruption and uncertainty (Random Events) - to create novel opportunities – as well as posing clear and present dangers that threaten the status quo of the world as we know it today.....

• The purpose of the “Disruptive Futurist” role is to provide future analysis and strategic direction to support senior client stakeholders who are charged by their organisations with thinking about the future. This involves enabling clients to anticipate, prepare for and manage the future by helping them to understanding how the future might unfold - thus realising the Stakeholder Strategic Vision and Communications / Benefits Realisation Strategies. This is achieved by scoping, influencing and shaping client organisational change and driving technology innovation to enable rapid business transformation.

• Future Threats and Chaos – Disruptive Futurism -

– Risk Management – Disruptive Change – Weak Signals and Wild cards – Black Swan (Random) Events – Complex Systems and Chaos Theory – Horizon Scanning, Monitoring and Tracking

The Eltville Model – Evolutionary Futurism

3. In the ELTVILLE MODEL GREEN lenses represent FUTURE OPPORTUNISTIIES – EVOLUTIONARY FUTURISM – Evolutionists believe that the geological, ecological and climatic systems interact with human activity to behave as a self-regulating collection of loosely coupled forces and systems – the Gaia Theory. Global Massive Change is driven by climatic, geological, biosphere, anthropologic and geo-political systems dominate at the macro-level – and at the micro-level local weather, ecology and environmental, social and economic sub-systems prevail.

4. The future will evolve from a series of actions and events which emerge, unfold and develop – and then plateau, decline and collapse. These actions and events are essentially natural responses to human impact on ecological and environmental support systems - creating massive global change through population growth, environmental degradation and scarcity of natural resources. Over the long term, global stability and sustainability of those systems will be preserved – at the expense of world-wide human population levels.

• The Creatable Future – Opportunities: - – Evolution - Opportunities and Adaptation

– Geological Cycles and Biological Systems

– Social Anthropology and Human Behaviour

– Global Massive Change and Human Impact

– Climatic Studies and Environmental Science

– Population Curves and Growth Limit Analysis

The Eltville Model – Goal Analysis

4. In the ELTVILLE MODEL GOLD lenses stand for our PREFERED and DESIRED FUTURE VISION – GOAL ANALYSTS believe that the future will be governed by the orchestrated vision, beliefs, goals and objectives of various influential and well connected Global Leaders, working with other stakeholders - movers, shakers and influencers such as the good and the great in Industry, Economics, Politics and Government, along with other well integrated and highly coordinated individuals from Academia, Media and Society in general – and realised through the plans and actions of global and influential organizations, institutions and groups to which they belong.

• The shape of the future may thus be discerned by Goal Analysis and interpretation of the policies, behaviours and actions of such individuals and of those groups to which they subscribe and belong.

The Preferred Future – Vision: -

– Goal Analysis

– Value Models and Roadmaps

– Political Science and Policy Studies

– Religious Studies and Future Beliefs

– Peace and Conflict Studies, Military Science

– Leadership Studies and Stakeholder Analysis

The Eltville Model – Extrapolation Analysis

5. In the ELTVILLE MODEL – INDIGO lenses are for EXTRAPOLATION – PATTERN and TREND ANALYSIS. Extrapolation, Pattern and Trend Analysts believe that the past is the key to the future-present. The future-present is therefore just a logical extrapolation, extension and continuum of past events, carried foreword on historic waves, cycles, patterns and trends.....

• Throughout eternity, all that is of like form comes around again – everything that is the same must return again in its own everlasting cycle.....

• Marcus Aurelius – Emperor of Rome •

• As the future-present develops and unfolds – it does so as a continuum of time past, time present and time future – and so eternally perpetuating the eternally unfolding, extension, replication and preservation of those historic cycles, patterns and trends that have shaped and influenced actions and events throughout time.

The Probable Future – Assumptions: -

– Patent and Content Analysis – Causal Layer Analysis (CLA) – Fisher-Pry and Gompertz Analysis – Pattern Analysis and Extrapolation – Technology and Precursor Trend Analysis – Morphological Matrices and Analogy Analysis

The Eltville Model - Strategic Positivism

6. The ELTVILLE MODEL VIOLET lenses are for STRATEGIC POSITIVISM – STRATEGIC POSITIVISTS are deterministic, and believe that their future outcomes, goals and objectives can be determined via Strategic Foresight and delivered through Future Management – strategy planning, design and action – so that the attainable future becomes both realistic and achievable.

• The future may develop and unfold so as to comply with our positive vision of an ideal future – and thus fulfil all of our desired outcomes, goals and objectives – so that our preferred options may ultimately be realised.

• The Planned Future – Strategy: - – Linear Systems and Game Theory

– Scenario Planning and Impact Analysis

– Future Landscape Modelling and Terrain Mapping

– Threat Assessment and Risk Management

– Economic Modelling and Financial Analysis

– Strategic Foresight and Future Management

Enterprise Risk Management

Qui ne risque rien n'a rien…..

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Threat Analysis, Hazard Research and Risk Management


Thermodynamics (Complexity and Chaos Theory) – governs the behaviour of Systems randomness is as a result of Unknown Forces.....

Classical Mechanics (Newtonian Physics) – governs the behaviour of everyday objects – any apparent randomness is as a result of Unknown Forces.....

Quantum Mechanics – governs the behaviour of unimaginably small sub-atomic particles – all events are truly and intrinsically both symmetrical and random.....

Relativity Theory – governs the behaviour of impossibly super-massive cosmic structures – any apparent randomness or asymmetry is as a result of Quantum Dynamics.....

Wave Mechanics (String Theory) – integrates the behaviour of every type of object –randomness and asymmetry is a result of Unknown Forces and Quantum Dynamics.....


• The underlying premise of Enterprise Risk Management is that every enterprise exists to provide value for its stakeholders. All entities face uncertainty, and the challenge for management is to determine how much uncertainty to accept as it strives to grow stakeholder value. Uncertainty presents both risk and opportunity, with the potential to erode or enhance value. Enterprise Risk Management enables leadership to deal effectively with uncertainty and its associated risk and opportunity - enhancing capacity to build sustainable growth and long-term value.

• Enterprise Risk Management value is maximised when management leadership sets policy, strategy and objectives to strike an optimal balance between growth and return on investment - with their related goals and risks - deploying resources efficiently and effectively in pursuit of the enterprise’s desired future outcomes.

• These capabilities inherent in enterprise risk management help the leadership team to achieve the enterprise’s performance and profitability targets whilst preventing the loss, attrition or devaluation of enterprise resources – and in so doing, protecting and preserving corporate assets. Enterprise Risk Management helps to ensure effective reporting and compliance with laws and regulations, and helps avoid damage to the enterprise’s reputation - and any consequential losses. In sum, enterprise risk management helps an enterprise to realise its corporate plans and business strategies - avoiding pitfalls and surprises along the way.


• Events – Risks and Opportunities. Events can have negative impact, positive impact, or both. Events with a negative impact represent risks, which can prevent value creation or erode existing value. Events with positive impact may offset negative impacts or represent opportunities. Opportunities are the possibility that an event will occur and positively affect the achievement of objectives, supporting value creation or preservation. Management channels opportunities back to its strategy or objective-setting processes, formulating plans to seize the opportunities.

• Enterprise Risk Management deals with risks and opportunities affecting the process of value creation or preservation – and is described as follows: -

– Enterprise Risk Management is a process, implemented by an enterprise’s board of directors, leadership, management and other personnel, and is applied both in a strategy setting and in every operational activity across the entire enterprise. Enterprise Risk Management is designed to identify potential threat events that may affect the enterprise, to manage those threats within its risk appetite and tolerances – and to provide reasonable comfort and assurance towards the achievement of operational and strategic enterprise objectives.

• This Enterprise Risk Management definition is purposefully broad. It captures key concepts fundamental to how companies and other organizations manage risk, providing a basis for application across organizations, industries, and sectors. It focuses directly on achievement of objectives established by a particular enterprise and provides a basis for defining enterprise risk management effectiveness.


• This definition reflects fundamental Enterprise Risk Management concepts: -

– A process set or group, ongoing and flowing through an entire enterprise

– Implemented by people at every level within an organisation

– Supported by technology - Enterprise Risk Management Systems

– Developed in a strategy setting, planning, forecasting and implemented by operational management

– Applied across the whole enterprise, at every segment and unit, and includes taking an enterprise level portfolio view of risk

– Designed to identify potential events that, if they occur, will affect the enterprise and to manage risk within its risk appetite

– Able to provide reasonable and acceptable Risk Management assurance to an enterprise’s senior management and board of directors

– Geared to the achievement of performance objectives in many separate but related categories

• This definition is purposefully broad. It captures key concepts fundamental to how companies and other organizations manage risk, providing a basis for application across organizations, industries, and sectors. It focuses directly on achievement of objectives established by a particular enterprise and provides a basis for defining your own organisations specific Enterprise Risk Management Framework.

Primary Risk Functions

• The Primary Risk Functions in large corporations that may participate in an Enterprise Risk Management programme typically include the following: -

– Strategic planning and forecasting - identifies competitive opportunities and external threats, along with strategic initiatives to exploit or address them

– Disaster and contingency planning - identifies business continuity issues

– Research and Development - understands core value propositions to ensure that future product / service development falls within corporate requirements

– Marketing and Product Engineering - understands the target customer to ensure product / service alignment within customer expectations and needs

– Finance and Accounting - identifies business performance management issues

– Actuarial Services - ensures the proper insurance cover for the organisation

– Treasury - ensures cash-flow is sufficient to meet business needs, whilst managing risk related to commodity pricing, interest and foreign exchange


– Financial Compliance – follows GAAP / IFRS recommendations and directs Sarbanes-Oxley Section 302 and 404 assessments, in addition to Basle II / Solvency II compliance - which identifies financial reporting and disclosure risks.

– Legal Services - manages litigation and analyses emerging government policy, legislation and regulation that may have future impact upon the organisation

– Regulatory and Statutory Compliance – provides governance and controls, monitors compliance with standards and initiates money laundering and fraud investigations - as well as dealing with Reputational Risk issues

– Quality Assurance - verifies operational quality assurance targets are achieved

– Operations Management – ensures that day-to-day operational performance is on target and that any operational issues are surfaced for resolution

Primary Risk Functions (continued)


– Credit Management - ensures that any credit facilities provided to customers is appropriate in respect of their Credit History and ability to repay the advance

– Customer Services – manages the customer experience / journey and ensures that problems are handled promptly and reported to operations for resolution

– Information Technology – follows Clinger-Cohen guidelines for due diligence in IT Procurement, implements Business Intelligence, “Big Data” Intelligent Agents / Alerts, Digital Dashboards and Reporting for Risk Controls and maintains Risk Event Identification / Incident Capture Systems for Risk Monitoring / Reporting

– Internal audit - evaluates Risk Event Identification / Incident Capture and Risk Controls; directs non-compliance / fraud investigation, monitoring and reporting

– Risk Management – maintains the Enterprise Risk Management Framework , audits and evaluates the effectiveness of each of the above risk functions and recommends any required improvements

Primary Risk Functions (continued)


• What is Risk Management ?

• Enterprise Risk Management is a structured approach to managing uncertainty through foresight and planning. Any risk is related to a specific threat (or group of related threats) managed through a sequence of activities using various resources: -

– Risk Research – evaluating / understanding the problem / opportunity domain

– Risk Identification – identifying applicable threats, risk groups, types & events

– Risk Prioritisation – ordering and prioritising relevant threats by risk probability

and magnitude

– Risk Assessment – comparing and balancing the individual threat posed by

each risk item in the ordered and prioritised risk register

– Risk Management Strategies – methods for transferring, avoiding, reducing or

accepting the risk

– Risk Planning – assessing the overall level of threat contained within the

consolidated risk register

– Risk Mitigation – reducing uncertainty through the application of strategic

foresight and future management planning processes


• Risk Management Strategies may include the following: -

– Transferring the risk to another party

– Avoiding the risk

– Reducing the negative effect of the risk

– Accepting part or all of the consequences of a particular risk .

• In an ideal Risk Management Scenario, a prioritisation process ranks those risks with the greatest potential loss and the greatest probability of occurring to be handled first - and risks with lower probability of occurrence and lower consequential losses are then handled in descending order

• In practice this prioritisation process can be very challenging. Comparing and balancing the overall threat of risks with a high probability of occurrence but lower loss - versus risks with higher potential loss but lower probability of occurrence - may lead to misleading results.....

Intangible Risk Management

• Intangible Risk Management hypothesises a different type of threat - a risk that has

a 100% probability of occurring but is ignored by the organization due to an inability

to recognise an unavoidable threat, or the failure to identify an intangible risk: -

– Process-engagement Risk may pose a threat when processes are ineffective,

incomplete or broken and operational procedures are misapplied (or not

applied).

– Knowledge Risk may materialise when insufficient knowledge is available in a

threat domain, or a deficient level of knowledge is applied to a threat situation,.

– Relationship Risk may occur when group dynamics are disrupted, morale

breaks down, or communication, collaboration and team-working become

ineffective.

• Intangible Risk Management allows risk managers to create immediate value from

the identification and reduction of hidden risks that reduce productivity.

• Such Intangible Risks may reduce the productivity of knowledge workers, decrease

cost effectiveness, erode profitability and service and quality whilst compromising

reputation, brand value, market share and earnings.

Opportunity Cost Management

• Risk Management Strategies also face operational difficulties in providing sufficient enterprise resources or allocating those resources appropriately. This is the concept of Opportunity Cost and may constitute: -

– Resources denied to risk management that could have been deployed more profitably on managing and avoiding risk.

– Resources over-expended on risk management that could have been spent elsewhere in the business on more profitable applications.

• Ideal Risk Management Scenarios minimizes spending whilst maximizing the reduction of the organisational impact and negative effects of such risks.

– Prioritisation ranks those risks with the greatest potential loss and / or the

greatest probability of occurrence -to be treated first

– Those Risks with lower probability of occurrence and lower consequential losses

are then handled in descending order

– Risk Management seeks to balance and optimise the overall threat impact of

risks with a high probability of occurrence but lower loss -versus risks with

greater potential loss but lower probability of occurrence


• Aligning risk appetite and risk management strategy – Management considers the enterprise’s capability to absorb risk (risk appetite) in evaluating strategic alternatives, setting related objectives, and developing mechanisms to manage related risk groups.

• Enhancing risk response decisions – Enterprise Risk Management provides the rigor to identify and select among alternative risk scenarios and responses –identification and assessment of threats, risk avoidance, risk reduction, risk sharing and risk acceptance.

• Reducing operational surprises and losses – Entities gain enhanced capability to identify potential threat events and establish threat responses - reducing their exposure to surprises and “black swan” events and their associated unplanned costs or losses.

• Identifying and managing multiple and cross-enterprise risks – Every enterprise faces a myriad of risks affecting different parts of the organization, and Enterprise Risk Management facilitates effective response to the interrelated impacts, and integrated management of multiple threat scenarios and exposure to groups of related risks.

• Seizing opportunities – By considering and mitigating a full range of potential threat events, management is well positioned to identify and proactively realise opportunities.

• Improving deployment of capital – Obtaining robust risk exposure information allows management to effectively assess overall capital needs and enhance capital allocation.

Risk Clusters and Connectivity

1

2

3

4

5

7

8

6

The above is an illustration of risk relationships - how risk events might be connected. A detailed and

intimate understanding of risk clusters and the connection between risks may help us to understand: -

• What is the relationship between Risks 1 and 8, and what impact do they have on Risks 2 - 7 ?

• Risks 2 - 5 and Risks 6 and 7 occur in clusters – what are the factors influencing these clusters ?

Answering questions such as these allows us to plan our risk management approach and mitigation

strategy – and to decide how to better focus our resources and effort on risk and fraud management.

Claimant 1

Risk Event

Claimant 2 Residence

Vehicle

Risk

Cluster

Risk Clusters and Connectivity

• Aggregated risk includes coincident, related, connected and interconnected risk: -

• Coincident - two or more risks appear simultaneously in the same domain – but

they arise from different triggers (unrelated causal events)

• Related - two more risks materialise in the same domain sharing common risk

features or characteristics (may share a possible hidden common trigger or cause

– and so are candidates for further analysis and investigation)

• Connected - two more risks materialise in the same domain due to the same

trigger (common cause)

• Interconnected - two more risks materialise together in a risk cluster or event

series - the previous (prior) risk event triggering the subsequent (next) risk event

• Aggregated risks may result in a significant cumulative impact - and are therefore

frequently identified incorrectly as Wild-card or Black Swan Events - rather than just

simply as risk clusters or event “storms”.....

Aggregated Risk

A Trigger A

Coincident Risk

B Trigger B

Risk Event

Risk Event

C Trigger

Related Risk

D Trigger

Risk Event

Risk Event

E

Trigger

Connected Risk

Risk Event

Risk Event F

G Trigger

Inter-connected Risk

Risk Event

Risk Event

H

Trigger D

USA Sub-Prime

Mortgage Crisis

Trigger F

CDO Toxic

Asset Crisis

K

E Trigger

K Sovereign

Debt Crisis

B Trigger

I

Money

Supply

Shock

C Trigger

H

Financial

Services

Sector

Collapse

D Trigger

G

L

A Trigger

J

Credit

Crisis

Global

Recession

Black Swan Events

Definition of a “Black Swan” Event

• A “Black Swan” Event is an event or

occurrence that deviates beyond what is

normally expected of any given situation

and that would be extremely difficult to

predict. The term “Black Swan” was

popularised by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a

finance professor and former Investment

Fund Manager and Wall Street trader.

• Black Swan Events – are unforeseen,

sudden and extreme change events or

Global-level transformations in either the

military, political, social, economic or

environmental landscape. Black Swan

Events are a complete surprise when

they occur and all feature an inordinately

low probability of occurrence - coupled

with an extraordinarily high impact when

they do happen (Nassim Taleb). “Black Swan” Event Cluster or “Storm”

Trading and Risk Management

Market Risk

• MARKET RISK •

Market Risk = Market Sentiment – Actual Results (Reality)

• The two Mood States – “Greed and Fear” are primitive human instincts which, until now,

we've struggled to accurately qualify and quantify. Social Networks, such as Twitter and

Facebook, burst on to the scene five years ago and have since grown into internet giants.

Facebook has over 900 million active members and Twitter over 250 million, with users

posting over 2 billion "tweets“ or messages every week. This provides hugely valuable and

rich insights into how Market Sentiment and Market Risk are impacting on Share Support /

Resistance Price Levels – and so is also a source of real-time data that can be “mined” by

super-fast computers to forecast changes to Commodity Price Curves

• Derwent Capital Markets - the sentiment analysis provider launched by Paul Hawtin in May

2012 following the dissolution of his "Twitter Market Sentiment Fund", sold yesterday to the

highest bidder at the end of a two-week online auction. The winning bid came from a Financial

Technology (Fin Tech) firm, which Hawtin declined to name. Hawtin had set a guide price of

£5 million ($7.8m), but claimed at the start of the auction process that any bid over and above

the £350,000 ($543,000) cash he had invested would represent a successful outcome.....

http://www.waterstechnology.com/buy-side-technology/analysis/2181304/twitter-hedge-fund-eyes-rebirth-dcm-capital





http://www.waterstechnology.com/waters/feature/2119649/industry-eyes-social-media-sentiment-analysis

http://www.waterstechnology.com/buy-side-technology/news/2241367/dcm-capital-goes-under-the-hammer



Financial Markets around the world are driven by “greed and fear”.....

Derwent Capital Markets – Market Risk = Market Sentiment – Actual Results (Reality).....

• Derwent Capital Markets is using Twitter to figure out where the money is going - just like that. A hedge

fund that analyzed tweets to figure out where to invest its managed funds closed its doors to new

investors last year – after just one month in which it made 1.86% Profit – Annual Projection 21% reports

the Financial Times. “As a result we made the strategic decision to re-use the Social Market Sentiment

Engine behind the Derwent Absolute Return Fund – and invest directly in developing a Social Media on-

line trading platform” commented Derwent Capital Markets founder Paul Hawtin,

Info-graphic – Apple Historic Stock Data Analysis.....

• Investors and traders around the world have accepted the fact that financial markets are driven by

“greed and fear”. This info-graphic is an example of the kind of correlation we see between historic stock

price and social media sentiment data. A trading advantage can arrive if you spot a significant change in

sentiment which is a leading asset price indicator. Derwent Capital Markets are pioneers in trading the

financial markets using global sentiment derived from large scale social media analysis.

Mood states – “greed and fear”.....

• These two mood states are primitive human instincts which, until now, we've struggled to accurately

quantify. Social networks, such as Twitter and Facebook, burst on to the scene five years ago and have

since grown into internet giants. Facebook has over 900 million active members and Twitter over 250

million, with users posting over 2 billion "tweets“ or messages every week. This provides a hugely

valuable and rich source of real-time data that can be “mined” by super-fast computers.....

CFD Trading, Spread Betting and FX Trading using “Big Data”

Market Risk

Apple Historic Stock Data Analysis Info-graphic using “Big Data”

MARKET RISK = MARKET SENTIMENT – ACTUAL RESULTS (REALITY)

Market Risk

Trading and Risk Management

Example – Inter-connected Risk

A Trigger

A

Freedom of Information Act (USA)

B Trigger

B

Financial Services De-regulation Act (USA)

Employers can now view unspent convictions when reviewing job applications from Convicted Felons

Convicted Felons can now apply for jobs

as Independent Financial Agents (IFAs)

C Trigger

C


Risk Event

Risk Event

D

Related Risk Example – Sub-Prime Mortgage Crisis

The only jobs easily available to Convicted Felons is

as self-employed Independent Financial Agents (IFAs)

Risk Event

Risk Event

Independent Financial Agents (IFAs) miss-sell Sub -prime Mortgages in Unregulated Financial Markets

Risk Event

E

Mortgagees with miss-sold Sub -prime Mortgages cover year one and two repayments of their low-start mortgage payment plan – but struggle as interest and monthly payments rise

Risk Event

F

Mortgagees with miss-sold Sub -prime Mortgages begin to default

on repayments when their monthly payments rise at the end of the

low-start payment plan and increase in interest rates – so mortgages are foreclosed , they are evicted and their homes become re-possessed.

Trigger D

USA Sub-Prime

Mortgage Crisis

Related Risk Example – Credit Default Obligation (CDO) - Toxic Asset Crisis

Trigger D

USA Sub-Prime Mortgage Crisis

Example – Inter-connected Risk

G Trigger

E


Risk Event

Risk Event

H

Rating Agencies (e.g. Standard and Poors etc.) award AAA Rating to Credit Default Obligation (CDO) Products

Risk Event

I

Investment Analysts in US and European Banks recommend that their clients invest in sub-prime Credit Default Obligation (CDO) Products with AAA Rating

Risk Event

J

US and European Banks invest heavily in sub-prime

Credit Default Obligation (CDO) Products with AAA Rating In expectation of low risk / high returns on investments

Trigger F

CDO Toxic

Asset Crisis

Merchant Banks rack-and-stack tranches of sub-prime mortgages into Credit Default Obligation (CDO) Products

K

E Trigger

K Sovereign Debt Crisis

B Trigger

I

Money

Supply

Shock

C Trigger

H

Financial

Services

Sector

Collapse

D Trigger

G

L

CDO Products

A Trigger

J

Credit

Crisis

Global Recession

Risk Management Frameworks


Throughout eternity, all that is of like form comes around again –

everything that is the same must return again in its own

everlasting cycle.....



Standard (Integrated) Risk Framework

• Systemic (external) Risk – Future Management Frameworks – Outsights / Eltville Model

• Operational (internal) Risk – CLAS, SOX / COBIT

• Market (macro-economic) Risk – COSO, Basle II / Solvency II, BoE / FSA

• Trade (micro-economic) Risk – COSO, SOX / COBIT, GAAP / IFRS

Event Risk

• Event Risk is the threat of loss from unexpected events. Event Risk measurement systems seek to quantify the

actual or potential (realised or unrealised) exposure of the total asset portfolio to unexpected Wild Card or Black

Swan Events. Event Risk may arise from Systemic (external) sources – such as Natural Disaster, Geo-political

Crisis, or the collapse of Local, Regional or Global Markets or the failure of Sovereign Nation States - or Operational

(internal) sources – such as Rogue Trading or the failure of Compliance or Disclosure systems and processes.

Market Risk

• Market Risk is the threat of loss from movements in the level or volatility of Market Prices – such as interest rates,

foreign currencies, equities and commodities. Market Risk measurement systems seek to recognise the actual or

potential (realised or unrealised) exposure of the total asset portfolio as a result of money supply or commodity price

shocks (sudden changes in the balance between supply and demand) and changes in market sentiment affecting

the attractiveness, desirability or value of the asset portfolio – as well as changes in the level of market intervention

(government legislation or market regulation).

Trade Risk

• Trade Risk is the threat of loss from erosion in the attractiveness, desirability or value of specific traded instruments

between individual counterparties – including contracts for foreign currencies, equities and commodities. Trade Risk

measurement systems seek to quantify the actual or potential (realised or unrealised) value of specific contracts or

traded instruments, Trade Risk does not cover Incremental Risk Capital Charge (IRC) due to Toxic Asset lock-in.

Risk Types

Operational Risk Types

Internal Risk Group

Employee

Third Party

B A

Human Risk

Process Risk

3rd Party Risk

G

Systemic Risk Types

External Risk Group

B

Security Risk

F

Legal Risk

D

C

Technology Risk

- Liquidity Risk

Economic Risk

E

Compliance Risk

F D

H

E

A

G C

Disaster / Catastrophe Risk

Sponsorship

Risk

Stakeholders

Political Risk

Social Risk

Environment Risk

Security Risk

Terrorism / Piracy Risk

- Credit Risk

D

Competitor Risk

J

F

Wild-card

Event Risk

Black Swan

Event Risk


Credit Risk

• Credit Risk is the threat of loss from changes in the status or liquidity of individual external debtors – changes in their

ability to service debts due to movement in their credit status, capitalisation, liquidity or solvency – or their exposure

to consequential losses due to statutory, regulatory or legal action. Credit Risk measurement systems seek to

quantify the actual or potential (realised / unrealised) ability of a Creditor to fulfil their contractual obligations.

Liquidity Risk – Solvency II and Basle II

• Liquidity Risk is the threat of loss from changes in the status or liquidity of an organisation –changes in their ability to

service debts due to internal movement in their credit status, capitalisation, liquidity or solvency – or their exposure to

consequential losses due to external statutory, regulatory or legal action. Liquidity Risk measurement systems seek to

quantify actual or potential (realised / unrealised) ability of a Bank or Insurer to meet provided / exposed liabilities.

• Basle II and Solvency II are Rules-based, Quantitative Risk Frameworks. The overhaul of the capital adequacy and

solvency rules is now well under way for European Financial Services - Banking and insurance - Life and Pensions,

General Insurers, Underwriters and Re-insurers -. Key drivers for Basle II and Solvency II include the following: -

• Key drivers for Basle II and Solvency II: -

• – EC directive around capital adequacy of Financial Services Companies

• – Critical requirement to bolster capital and strengthen balance sheets

• – Need to have reporting systems in place to demonstrate compliance

• – Deadline is Q4 2010 – so aggressive timeline for implementation

• – Fines and imprisonment for non-compliance or non-disclosure

• – Major insurance companies will invest £100m + in Compliance Programmes

• – Strategy, Business Process, Architecture and Technology changes

• – Specialisations include compliance, risk, finance, actuarial science

Risk Types

Trade Risk Types

Traded Instrument

Trader

Counterparty

B A

Fraud Risk

Insurance Risk

Counterparty Risk

D

Market Risk Types

Commodity

B

Market

Sentiment

Quantity Risk

E

Price Risk

G

C Exchange Rate Risk

- Credit Risk

- Liquidity Risk

Market Participants

F

Contract Risk

G D

I

F

H C

Currency Risk

Commodity Risk

Financial Risk

Regulatory Risk

Wild-card

Event Risk

Black Swan

Event Risk

E

Interest Rate Risk

A Money

Markets

Compliance

Risk

Supervisors

H

Statutory Risk

Legislative Regulators

Price-shock

Risk


• Systemic Risk (external threats) - Eltville Model, Future Management Framework, Outsights

– Political Risk – Political Science, Futures Studies and Strategic Foresight

– Economic Risk – Fiscal Policy, Economic Analysis, Modelling and Forecasting

– Social Risk – Population Growth and Migration, Futures Studies and Strategic Foresight

– Environmental Risk – Climate Change, Environmental Analysis, Modelling and Forecasting

– Event Risk – exposure to unexpected local, regional or global events

• Wild Card Events – Horizon Scanning, Tracking and Monitoring – Weak Signals

• Black Swan Events – Scenario Planning and Impact Analysis – Future Management

• Market Risk (macro-economic threats) - COSO, Basle II / Solvency II, BoE / FSA

– Financial Risk – Traded Instrument Product Analysis, Valuation and Financial Management

– Currency Risk – FX Curves and Exchange-rate Forecasting

– Commodity Risk – Price Curves and Supply-Demand Forecasting

– Money Supply Risk – Interest Rate Curves and Money-market Forecasting

• Trade Risk (micro-economic threats) - COSO, Basle II / Solvency II, BoE / FSA

– Credit Risk – Credit Rating, Balanced Scorecard, Debtor Forecasting and Analysis

– Contract Risk – Asset Valuation, Credit Default Propensity Modelling

– Liquidity Risk – Solvency and Capital Adequacy Rules (Solvency II / Basle II)

– Insurance Risk – Underwriting Due Diligence and Compliance

– Actuarial Risk – Geo-demographic profiling and Morbidity Analysis

– Counter-Party Risk – Counter-Party Threat Analysis and Risk Management

– Fraud Risk (Rogue Trading) – Real-time Analytics at Point-of-Contract-Execution

Risk Types

Clinical Risk Types

Clinical Risk Group

Employee

Patient

B

A

Human Risk Process

Risk

D

Morbidity Risk Types

Morbidity Risk Group

C

Legal Risk

F

3rd Party Risk

G

C

Technology Risk

Trauma Risk

E

Morbidity Risk

H E

J

G

A

I D

Immunological System Risk

Sponsorship

Stakeholders Disease

Risk

Shock Risk

Cardiovascular System Risk

Pulmonary System Risk

Toxicity Risk

Organ Failure Risk

- Airways

- Conscious

- Bleeding

Triage Risk

- Performance

- Finance

- Standards

Compliance Risk

H

Patient Risk

Neurological System Risk

F

B

Predation Risk


• Operational Risk (internal / external operational threats) - CLAS, SOX / COBIT

– Legal Risk – Contractual Law Due Diligence and Compliance

– Statutory Risk – Legislative Due Diligence and Compliance

– Regulatory Risk – Regulatory Due Diligence and Compliance

– Competitor Risk – Competitor Analysis, Defection Detection and Churn Management

– Reputational Risk – Internet Content Scanning, Intervention and Threat Management

• Business Operations Risk (internal business threats)

– Process Risk – Business Strategy / Architecture, Enterprise Target Operating Model (eTOM) / Business

Process Management (BPM) Verification /Validation

– Stakeholder Risk – Benefits Realisation Strategy and Communications Management

– Information Risk – Information Strategy and Architecture, Data Quality Management

– Disclosure Risk – Enterprise Governance, Reporting and Controls (SOX / COBIT)

• Digital Communications and Technology Risk (internal technology threats)

– Technology Risk – Technology Strategy and Architecture

– Security Risk – Security Principles, Policies, Architecture and Models (CLAS)

– Vendor / 3rd Party Risk – Strategic Vendor Analysis and Supply Chain Management

Thinking about the Future of Energy…..

How different will tomorrow be? The energy industry has one of the longest timelines of any business sector. Decisions

are being made today for oil or natural gas fields that will only begin to flow fifteen years from now. A power plant approved

tomorrow may be operating for more than half a century. Increasingly, the cost of many major capital investment decisions will be measured not in the hundreds of millions, but billions, of dollars. Investors, in the meantime, have to decide where to put their bets on technologies that will take many years to develop

and mature

Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA)

Thinking About the Future of Energy

• The energy industry has one of the longest timelines of any business sector. Decisions are being made today for oil or natural gas fields that will only begin to flow fifteen years from now. A power plant approved tomorrow may be operating for more than half a century. Increasingly, the cost of major capital investment decisions will be measured not in the hundreds of millions, but billions, of dollars. Investors, in the meantime, have to decide where to put their bets on emerging technologies that may take many years to establish, develop and mature.

• Inevitably, much will change over those time frames. Unexpected geopolitical clashes will disrupt markets. Economic performance will be surprising. innovative Technology will bring in to focus new energy sources and change the competitive balance. Governments will undoubtedly change their minds on the dominance of laisez-faire market forces on the one hand, and imposition of regulation and state ownership on the other - and flip the balance between extremes more than once.

• Today, the outlook for regulation of carbon emissions creates another layer of uncertainty. There could be strong pressure to change the fuel choices in the face of tighter carbon regulations. Or the other hand, the international community may fail to agree on effective carbon controls, and state legislation and regulation could be absent, limited or not effectively enforced. There will certainly be much debate as to whether to rely on markets or regulation to meet climate change targets and goals.

Thinking About the Future of Energy

• How do we make decisions in the face of such chaos, disruption and uncertainty?

• “Scenario Planning and Impact Analysis” can play a very useful role. A disciplined process of scenario development provides a framework for managing the possibility of chaos, disruption and uncertainty. These are not forecasts or extrapolations. Rather, they are logical “stories” about alternative futures that force one to think about the “what-ifs,” the surprises and the range of uncertainties. Think of them as thought experiments, but grounded in wide-ranging research and analysis. Our energy scenarios combine structured narratives of how the larger world could evolve in the future with detailed energy market modeling. Yes, they are thought experiments, but the objective is to help people to think systematically about trends and the potential for changes, ruptures and discontinuities. Scenarios, of course, can be used for any industry or for public policy.

• Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA) recently completed a study entitled “Dawn of a New Age - The Future Energy Timeline to 2030”: which presents three possible, probable and alternative long-term energy scenarios. The objective of the study is to clarify the risks and choices ahead. Each of the scenarios examines an important strategic question about how the world may unfold over the next 25 years and what this means for energy markets (see CERA’s Dawn of a New Age Scenarios in Brief).

Scenario Planning and Impact Analysis

Price Index Inflation

Scenario 1 - The Asian Phoenix

• SCENARIO 1 - What happens if the BRICS - Brazil, Russia, China and India – along with other countries in Asia Pacific continue to grow at their current rate?

• The Asian Phoenix Scenario examines the implications of a possible scenario for energy markets of such a transformed world. In this scenario, Asia reaches 54 percent of world GDP in 2030 and grows from its current 29 percent of world energy consumption to 42 percent. Continued strong economic growth in Asia pushes oil consumption to new highs. Tight markets keep prices well above the last 25 year average price per barrel.

• One outcome is that the international rivalry and competition for access to oil and gas resources not only grows but involves new players. “Eastern oil companies” emerge to compete with the traditional Western companies, especially in new regions of supply such as Central Asia and Africa. Another result, perhaps surprising to some, is that coal consumption will grow substantially, particularly in China and India. Coal powers these nations to new global standing but it also will become, if without mitigation, an increasing source of geopolitical tension as climate concerns mount.

Scenario 2 – Oil Price Break Point

• SCENARIO 2 - What would happen if oil prices move well above $100 price per barrel as experienced a few years ago? Could oil and gas lose its current totally dominant position in the energy sector? These are the questions that the Oil Price Break Point Scenario explores in the most probable scenario - a world in which oil breaks through the $100 per barrel barrier for a sustained period of time. In this scenario, it is not shortage of oil and gas resources as reserves above ground - nor accessible / exploitable hydrocarbon reservoirs below ground that pushes prices up - but rather global geopolitical events. This scenario demonstrates how ultra-high oil prices and global energy insecurity could unleash the second collapse in a double-dip depression - with a mix of policy and price responses along with enhanced technology innovation that would propel the worlds major industrial economies to begin finally to break away from the current massive dependency on hydrocarbon energy sources.

• In this scenario, one result of government and industry action, and new entrants in the energy business, is that by 2020, oil no longer has a monopoly grip on the transportation sector. Other liquid fuels derived from bio-fuels, kerogen oil shale, oil tar sands, coal-to-liquids, gas-to-liquids and even solid-to-gas (methane hydrate) technologies jostle for commercial feasibility and market share. Plug-in hybrid sources may also begin to win market share in such a high-cost energy future,

Scenario 2 – Oil Price Break Point

• SCENARIO 2 - Another outcome of high energy prices explored in detail within the Oil Price Break Point Scenario is progress toward reducing carbon emissions. National security concerns associated with high oil prices work hand-in-hand with concern over climate change (see “Aspen Group Declaration of Energy Independence”).

• Dessertec is investing in a massive Photo-voltaic array the size of Wales – deep in the heart of the Sahara Dessert. The European Union is planning a European Super-grid to transmit this energy to consumers. In the UK, there are advanced plans for an off-shore Grid to service Wind and Wave power generation farms in the North Sea .

• The result is that across the U.S., Europe, Japan and even the BRICS - Brazil, Russia, China and India - new energy policies are embraced that expand investment in renewable energy, nuclear and emerging carbon capture and storage technologies. The high oil price scenario also creates strong incentives to improve global energy efficiency. A feature of the Oil Price Break Point Scenario is that global energy intensity (the amount of energy required to produce a unit of GDP) in 2030 is reduced by 32 percent in comparison with the 2005 baseline.

Scenario 3 – Geo-political Fissures

• SCENARIO 3 - What would happen if public opinion and government support for globalization around the world wanes as war, terrorism, economic insecurity and social exclusion feeds increased nationalism, isolationism and protectionism? That is the question at the heart of the Global Geo-political Fissures Scenario – under which energy markets could evolve in an entirely novel way as suggested in this alternative scenario. Diminished economic growth would cause oil prices to tumble back into the sub $50 range. In this scenario, governments assert more control over the energy sector. The trend in the electric power industry in many countries is to move away from competition and toward corporate responsibility with social mandates and more regulatory intervention-in some cases, even the nationalization of assets.

• Given the high stakes and uncertainty surrounding the future of energy, there is a need for structured ways of thinking about how the future may unfold. The next 25 years will be full of surprises. Scenarios can help us better prepare for these surprises - and perhaps even anticipate those surprises before they impact or materialize.

• Daniel Yergin, chairman of CERA, received the Pulitzer Prize for “The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money & Power” and the United States Energy Award for lifelong achievements in energy and the promotion of international understanding. Vist CERA at http://cera.ecnext.com.

Scenario 4 – Geo-political Collapse

• SCENARIO 4 -- Global Geo-political Collapse Scenario - Over the next ten years - the cost of energy of all types climbs above the rate of inflation – then rises more steeply. Energy Prices begin to become more unstable, oscillating wildly between High Price / Low Demand and Low Price / High Demand - until the price of energy becomes so unpredictable that Energy Commodities are no longer tradable – so that Energy markets collapse.

• As a result of the Global Geo-political Collapse Scenario - societies around the world plateau, decline and then collapse due to resource scarcity and energy shortage. Industrial nations turn inwards to self-sufficiency based “localisation” economic strategies and solutions. Only societies with access to sustainable natural resources - clean water, good soil, temperate climates, maintainable agriculture, and sufficient sources of renewable energy – alone maintain any semblance of an industrial economy - and so retain a level of civilization that we could recognize as such today.

Doug Blair - Carnegie Mellon University

The Hydrogen Economy

The Hydrogen Economy • The Third Industrial Revolution: Leading the Way to a Green Energy Era and a

Hydrogen Economy - Jeremy Rifkin

Lecture Synopsis: • We are approaching the sunset of the oil era in the first half of the

21st century. The price of oil on global markets continues to climb and peak global oil is within sight in the coming decades. At the same time, the dramatic rise in carbon dioxide emissions from the burning of fossil fuels is raising the earth's temperature and threatening an unprecedented change in the chemistry of the planet and global climate, with ominous consequences for the future of human civilization and the ecosystems of the earth.

The Hydrogen Economy

• While oil, coal, and natural gas will continue to provide a substantial portion of

the world's and the European Union's energy well into the 21st century, there is

a growing consensus that we are entering a twilight period where the full costs

of our fossil fuel addiction is beginning to act as a drag on the world economy.

During this twilight era, the 27 EU member states are making every effort to

ensure that the remaining stock of fossil fuels is used more efficiently and are

experimenting with clean energy technologies to limit carbon dioxide emissions

in the burning of conventional fuels.

• These efforts fall in line with the EU mandate that the member states increase

energy efficiency 20 percent by 2020 and reduce their global warming

emissions 20 percent (based on 1990 levels), again by 2020. But, greater

efficiencies and mandated global warming gas reductions, by themselves, are

not enough to adequately address the unprecedented crisis of global warming

and global peak oil and gas production. Looking to the future, governments will

need to explore new energy paths and establish new economic models with the

goal of achieving as close to zero carbon emissions as possible.

The Nuclear Economy

Nuclear Fission

• The survey sets out that total identified uranium resources have grown by 12.5% since 2008

and are sufficient for over 100 years of supply based on current requirements.

• Nuclear power generated 2385 TWh in 2011.

• The nuclear share of total global electricity production reached its peak of 17% in the late

1980s, but since then it has been falling and reached 13.5% in 2012.

Nuclear Fusion

• Nuclear Fusion is the next barrier - the conquest of Hydrogen technology, the science which is

required to support both a Hydrogen and Nuclear Fusion Economy (to free up the general

population from energy dependency). Nuclear Fusion requires the creation and sustained

maintenance of the enormous pressures and temperatures to be found at the Sun’s core. This

is a most challenging technology that scientists here on Earth are only now just beginning to

explore and evaluate its extraordinary opportunities. To initiate Nuclear Fusion requires

creating the same conditions right here on Earth that are found the very centre of the Sun.

This means replicating the environment needed to support quantum nuclear processes which

take place at huger temperatures and immense pressures in the Solar core – conditions

extreme enough to overcome the immense nuclear forces which resist the collision and fusion

of two deuterium atoms (heavy hydrogen – one proton and one neutron) to form a single

Helium atom – accompanied by the release of a vast amount of Nuclear energy.

The Carbon Economy

Oil

• Global crude oil reserves today are almost 25% larger than in 1993 and production has

gone up by 20%.

• The oil reserves in the world could be quadrupled if unconventional resources such as oil

shale, oil sands, extra heavy oil, and natural bitumen are taken into account.

• The World Energy Congress, 2013 Report sets out a global oil reserves-to-production

(R/P) ratio of 56 years with total available reserves estimated at 223 billion tonnes.

Coal

• Coal is still the global primary energy source (40%) for electricity production. Leading

economies are still powered by coal, with 79% of electricity in China and 40% in the USA

generated by coal-fired plants, respectively.

• The World Energy Congress, 2013 Report sets out a global coal reserves-to-production

ratio in excess of 100 years with total available reserves estimated at 891 billion tonnes.

Natural Gas

• Natural gas is expected to continue to grow, thanks to significant increases in the

reassessment of reserves and the growing contribution of unconventional gas, such as

shale gas.

• The report sets out a global reserves-to-production ratio for natural gas at 55 years with

total reserves estimated at 209 trillion cubic metres.

The Renewable Economy

Bio-energy

• Between 1990 and 2010 bio-energy supply increased from 38 to 52 EJ.

• The report showcases the potential for energy efficiency to decrease the use of

resources and achieve huge savings along the entire energy value chain. Examples

include:

• Buildings account for almost 40% of global consumption and the report notes potential

energy savings in buildings could reach between 20 and 40%.

• In oil & gas exploration the energy efficiency of the electric system, which today is 20%,

could be increased up to 50%.

• In power generation the average efficiency of power plants is 34% for coal-fired

installations compared with best available technology of 46% for coal and 61% for gas-

fired units.

• The report is the 23rd of the World Energy Council’s resources studies, with the full

report running to nearly 600 pages. The first report was published in 1933 and was

entitled Statistical Year Book of World Energy, which later became the WEC Survey of

Energy Resources. The series is regarded worldwide as the premier source of

information on global energy resources and is made available free of charge via the

World Energy Council’s website:www.worldenergy.org/publications.

http://www.worldenergy.org/news-and-media/press-releases/world-energy-council-report-confirms-global-abundance-of-energy-resources-and-exposes-myth-of-peak-oil/www.worldenergy.org/publications

http://www.worldenergy.org/news-and-media/press-releases/world-energy-council-report-confirms-global-abundance-of-energy-resources-and-exposes-myth-of-peak-oil/www.worldenergy.org/publications

The Renewable Economy

Hydropower

• Hydropower generated 2767 TWh in 2011.

• During 2012, an estimated 27 to 30 GW of new hydropower and 2 to 3 GW of pumped

storage capacity was commissioned.

• Since the WEC’s 2010 resources survey the total amount of electricity produced by

hydropower has dropped by 14%, in part due to water shortages.

Wind

• Wind generated 377 TWh in 2011 from 240,000 MW of installed capacity.

• Total amount of electricity generated by wind in 2011 was roughly equal to Australia’s

annual electricity consumption.

• China, with about 62 GW, has the world’s highest installed capacity of wind energy, while

Denmark, with over 3 GW, has the highest level per capita.

Solar PV

• The global total of installed capacity for solar PV stood at 68,850 MW in 2011 with an

energy production around 70 TWh.

• Between 2008 and 2011 solar PV capacity increased in the USA from 1168 to 5171 MW,

in Germany from 5877 to 25,039 MW, and in Italy from 430 MW to 13,000 MW.

Future Research Problem: -

Qualitative and Quantitative Research Methods

Complex Systems and Chaos Theory

• Weaver (Complexity Theory) • Qualitative Methods: – tend to be deterministic, interpretive and subjective in nature.....

• Gleick and Lorenzo (Chaos Theory) • Quantitative Methods: – tend to be probabilistic, analytic and objective in nature.....

The Butterfly Effect

• Weather forecasting and prediction is an extremely difficult system to model

and understand. Meteorologists can forecast the weather for short periods of

time, a couple days at most - but beyond that predictions are generally very

poor. The most accurate weather prediction is usually “the weather tomorrow

will change only slightly from the conditions that we have experienced today”.

• Edward Lorenz was a mathematician and meteorologist at the Massachusetts

Institute of Technology who loved the study of weather – the extremely difficult

problem of weather forecasting and prediction. With the advent of early

computers, Lorenz seized the opportunity to combine mathematics and

meteorology with the latest developments in Computational Theory (Alan

Turing) and Information Theory (Gordon Shannon). Lorenz set out to construct

a mathematical model of the weather – a set of differential equations that

represented changes in air temperature, pressure, wind speed and direction,

etc. in weather “cells” – columns of air referenced located by an area of sea or

land located above a map grid square.

Future Research Problem: - Qualitative and Quantitative Research Methods

• Complex Systems and Chaos Theory •

• The Butterfly Effect• Weather Forecasting & prediction is an extremely difficult system to model and understand

Qualitative Methods: – tend to be deterministic, interpretive and subjective in nature.....

• The Navier-Stokes Equation • The Navier-Stokes equation states that: - p (Dv/Dt) = - D.p + D.T + f

Quantitative Methods: – tend to be probabilistic, analytic and objective in nature.....


• Initially, Lorenz created a weather model consisting of a set of 12 differential

(non-linear) equations. Non-linear (differential) equations are difficult to resolve –

as there are usually more than one correct solution for each set of variables –

whereas Linear equations are usually resolved into a single correct solution for

each set of variables. Nonlinear systems are therefore central to chaos theory –

as they can often exhibit the capacity for complex and chaotic behaviour – a

stochastic pattern.

• Extremes in weather follow a similar stochastic pattern. Everyone is familiar with

the expression "When it rains, it pours”..... Lorenz's initial weather model, which

involved a set of 12 nonlinear differential equations, exhibited chaotic behaviour,.

Lorenz decided to look for complex behaviour in an even simpler set of

equations, and was led to the phenomenon of rolling fluid convection. The

physical model is simple - a fluid placed in a solid rectangular box with a heated

at the bottom and cooled at the top - will attempt to re-distribute that heat

throughout the fluid mass by convection (movement of the fluid).

http://www.umbrars.com/sr/introsr.htm

http://www.umbrars.com/sr/introsr.htm


• Lorenz's initial weather model, which involved a set of 12 nonlinear differential

equations, exhibited chaotic behaviour. The physical model is simple: place a

fluid (gas or liquid) in a solid rectangular box and apply a heat source at the

base. Lorenz decided to look for complex behaviour in an even simpler set of

equations, and was led to the phenomenon of rolling fluid convection.

• Finally, Lorenz stripped the weather model down to a fairly crude but useable

system consisting of several simplified fluid dynamics equations (called the

Navier-Stokes equations) and from the original twelve nonlinear equations

ended up with a simplified set of just three nonlinear equations: -

• Where P is the Pr and tl number representing the ratio of the fluid viscosity to

its thermal conductivity, R represents the difference in temperature between

the top and bottom of the system, and B is the ratio of the width to height of

the box used to hold the system. The values Lorenz used are P = 10, R = 28,

B = 8/3.


• On a particular day in the winter of 1961, Lorenz wanted to re-examine a sequence of data

coming from his model. Instead of restarting the entire run, he decided to save time and restart

the run from somewhere in the middle. Using data printouts, he entered the conditions at

some point near the middle of the previous run, and re-started the model calculation. What he

found was very unusual and unexpected. The data from the second run should have exactly

matched the data from the first run. While they matched at first, the runs eventually began to

diverge dramatically — the second run losing all resemblance to the first within a few "model"

months. A sample of the data from his two runs in shown overlaid below: -

Source: - http://www.stsci.edu/~lbradley/seminar/butterfly.html

http://www.stsci.edu/~lbradley/seminar/butterfly.html


• At first Lorenz thought that a vacuum tube had gone bad in his computer, a Royal

McBee — an extremely slow and crude machine by today's standards. After

discovering that there was no malfunction, Lorenz finally found the source of the

problem. To save space, his printouts only showed three digits while the data in the

computer's memory contained six digits. Lorenz had entered the rounded-off data

from the printouts assuming that the difference was inconsequential. For example,

even today temperature is not routinely measured within one part in a thousand.

• Lorenz had entered the rounded-off data from the printouts – assuming that the

insignificant difference was inconsequential. Even today example, temperature is not

routinely measured within one part in a thousand. This led Lorenz to the conclusion

that detailed long-term weather forecasting was doomed. His simple weather model

exhibits the phenomenon known as "sensitive dependence on initial conditions."

This is sometimes referred to as the Butterfly Effect, – that is, “a butterfly flapping

its wings in South America can affect the weather in Central Park.....”


• Consider the idea of sensitivity to initial conditions. In his weather system

modelling, Prof. Edward Lorentz determined that the tiniest change in an input

variable in computer weather simulations, lead to radical differences in the

outcome over a relatively short time. In exploring the development of weather

systems, with any vanishingly small differences in the initial conditions at the

onset of a chaotic system cycle – minute and imperceptible differences create

slightly different starting points which result in massively different outcomes

between two otherwise identical systems - both operating within the same time

frame.

• This led Lorenz to conclude that the future of detailed long-term weather

forecasting was doomed. His simple model exhibits the phenomenon known

as "sensitive dependence on initial conditions." This is sometimes referred to

as the Butterfly Effect, e.g. a butterfly flapping its wings in South America can

affect the weather in Central Park.

http://syzygyastro.hubpages.com/hub/The-Existence-of-Atlantis


• The question then arises — why does a set of completely deterministic equations exhibit such chaotic behaviour? Previously, Student Mathematicians and Scientists were often taught that small perturbations in initial conditions only tend to lead to small changes in model behaviour and outcomes This was clearly not the case in Lorenz's Weather Model – where small initial perturbations in temperature lead to massive changes in Weather Model behaviour and outcomes The answer to this lies in the nature of the weather cell model formulae - they were nonlinear equations. Non-linear equations are often difficult to resolve – as there are usually more than one correct solution – whereas Linear equations are usually resolved into a single correct solution

• Lorenz subsequently simplified several fluid dynamics equations (called the Navier-Stokes equations) and from the original twelve nonlinear (quadratic) equations ended up with a simplified set of just three nonlinear (quadratic) equations: -

• The Navier-Stokes equation states that: - p (Dv/Dt) = - D.p + D.T + f

– Where P is the Pr and tl number representing the ratio of the fluid viscosity to its thermal conductivity, R represents the difference in temperature between the top and bottom of the fluid system, and B is the ratio of the width to height of the box used to hold the fluid system. The values Lorenz used are P = 10, R = 28, B = 8/3.

Navier–Stokes equations

• Navier–Stokes equations model the continuous flow of fluids - assuming that the nature

of the fluid being studied is a continuum (that is, the fluid is infinitely divisible and not

composed of discrete particles such as atoms or molecules) - and is moving slowly at

non-relativistic velocities. This is the Generalised form of the Navier-Stokes equation: -

Navier–Stokes equations (general case)

• This equation is often written using the material derivative Dv/Dt, making it more apparent that

this is a statement of Newton's second law: -

• The Navier–Stokes equations forecast fluid velocity - not position. A solution of the Navier–

Stokes equations is called a velocity field or flow field - which is a description of the velocity of

the fluid at a given point in space and time.

Navier–Stokes equations (re-written)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Continuum_mechanics

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_relativity

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Material_derivative

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Velocity

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Position_(vector)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Velocity_field


Velocity

• Once the velocity field is solved, then all of the other quantities of interest (such as flow

rate or drag force) may be calculated. This is different from that which is normally seem

in classical mechanics, where solutions are typically trajectories of position of a particle or

deflection of a continuum. Studying velocity instead of position makes more sense for a

fluid; however for visualisation purposes one can compute various trajectories.

Nonlinearity

• Navier–Stokes equations are nonlinear partial differential equations in almost every real

situation. In some cases, such as one-dimensional flow and Stokes flow (or creeping

flow), then the quadratic equations may be simplified to linear equations. This property of

nonlinearity makes most real-world problems(such as the weather) difficult or impossible

to solve – and this is the main contributor to the turbulence that the equations model.

• The nonlinearity is due to convective acceleration - an acceleration which is associated

with the change in velocity over position. Hence, any convective flow, whether turbulent

or not, will involve a non-linear. Solution. An example of convective but laminar (non-

turbulent) flow would be the passage of a viscous fluid - for example, laminar airflow over

an aircraft wing , or the boundary flow oil through a small converging nozzle. Such flows,

whether precisely soluble or not - can often be thoroughly studied and understood.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Classical_mechanics

http://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/Particle

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Continuum_(theory)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Streamlines,_streaklines,_and_pathlines

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nonlinear

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Partial_differential_equations

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stokes_flow

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turbulence

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Convective

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laminar_flow

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nozzle


Turbulence

• Turbulence is the time dependent chaotic behaviour seen in many fluid flows. It is generally

believed that it is due to the inertia of the fluid as a whole: the culmination of time dependent and

convective acceleration; hence flows where inertial effects are small tend to be laminar

(the Reynolds number quantifies how much the flow is affected by inertia). It is believed, though

not known with certainty, that the Navier–Stokes equations describe turbulence properly.

• The numerical solution of the Navier–Stokes equations for turbulent flow is extremely difficult,

and due to the significantly different mixing-length scales that are involved in turbulent flow, the

stable solution of this requires such a fine mesh resolution that the computational time becomes

significantly infeasible for calculation (see Direct numerical simulation). Attempts to solve

turbulent flow using a laminar solver typically result in a time-unsteady solution, which fails to

converge appropriately. To counter this, time-averaged equations such as the Reynolds-

averaged Navier–Stokes equations (RANS), supplemented with turbulence models, are used in

practical computational fluid dynamics (CFD) applications when modeling turbulent flows. Some

models include the Spalart-Allmaras, k-ω (k-omega), k-ε (k-epsilon), and SST models which add

a variety of additional equations to bring closure to the RANS equations. Another technique for

solving numerically the Navier–Stokes equation is the Large eddy simulation (LES). This

approach is computationally more expensive than the RANS method (in time and computer

memory), but produces better results since the larger turbulent scales are explicitly resolved.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turbulence

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chaos_theory

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inertia

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reynolds_number

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Direct_numerical_simulation

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reynolds-averaged_Navier%E2%80%93Stokes_equations






http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computational_fluid_dynamics

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spalart%E2%80%93Allmaras_turbulence_model



http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=K-omega_turbulence_model&action=edit&redlink=1



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turbulence_kinetic_energy



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Large_eddy_simulation


Application

• Navier–Stokes equations model the flow of continuous fluids - and assume that the fluid

under study is a continuum (that is, it is infinitely divisible and not composed of discrete

particles such as atoms or molecules) – and also, is not moving at relativistic velocities.

• Together with supplemental equations (for example, conservation of mass) and under well

formulated boundary conditions, the Navier–Stokes equations seem to model fluid motion

accurately. Even turbulent flows seem (on average) to agree with real world observations.

At very small scales or under extreme conditions - such as fluid dynamics in nano-tubes –

as real fluids made out of discrete molecules, experimental observations will produce

different results from the “ideal” flow of continuous fluids which are modelled by Navier–

Stokes equations. Depending on the Knudsen number of the fluid flow problem, statistical

mechanics or possibly even molecular dynamics may be a more appropriate approach.

• Another limitation is simply the complicated nature of the equations. Well tested and

understood formulations exist for common fluid families, but the application of the Navier–

Stokes equations to less common families tends to result in very complicated formulations

which are a current area of research. For this reason, these equations are usually written

for Newtonian fluids. Studying such fluids is "simple" because viscosity models end up

being linear; however, truly general models for the flow of other kinds of fluids, for example

in networks (such as blood flowing in a vascular system) as of 2013 - do not yet exist.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Continuum_mechanics

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_relativity

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Knudsen_number

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statistical_mechanics

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statistical_mechanics

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Molecular_dynamics

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newtonian_fluid

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Linear

History and Future of Climate, Environment and Ecology Change

Anthropogenic Impact (Human Activity) on the natural Environment

• Global Massive Change Events – many Human Activity Cycles, such as Business, Social,

Political, Economic, Historic and Pre-historic (Archaeology) Human Activity Waves - may be

compatible with, and map onto – one or more Natural Cycles. In their starkest warning yet,

following nearly seven years of new research on the climate, the Intergovernmental Panel on

Climate Change (IPCC) said it was "unequivocal" and that even if the world begins to moderate

greenhouse gas emissions, warming is likely to cross the critical threshold of 2C by the end of

this century. That would have serious consequences, including sea level rises, heat-waves and

changes to rainfall - meaning that dry regions receive much less rain and wet areas much more.

Possible Natural Mechanisms for driving Human Activity Cycles • Cosmic Processes – ultra long-term Astronomic changes (e.g. Inter- / Intra-gallactic and solar system events)

• Geological Processes – very long-term global change e.g. Orogonies (Mountain Building), Volcanic Activity

• Biological Processes – Evolution and Carbon, Nitrogen, Oxygen and Sulphur Cycles (terra-forming effects)

• Solar Forcing – long-term periodic change in Insolation (solar radiation) due to Milankovitch Orbital Cycles

• Oceanic Forcing – ocean currents and climate systems– oscillation, temperature, salinity – Bond Cycles

• Atmospheric Forcing – rapid change in air temperature and Ice Mass / Melt-water Cycles – Heinrich Events

• Human Processes – Human Activity (agriculture, industrialisation) and impact on Global Climate / Ecosystems

• Atomic / Sub-atomic Processes – Particle Physics, Quantum Mechanics, Wave Mechanics and String Theory

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/ipcc



Climate Change and Environmental Futures

• Increased severity and frequency of extreme weather events – El Nino and La Nina – combined with rising sea levels and natural disasters - has already begun to threaten our low-lying coastal cities (New Orleans, Brisbane, Fucoshida, Bangkok), A combination of rising sea levels, storm surges of increased intensity and duration, tsunamis and flash floods – will flood land up to 90 km into the interior from the present coast much more frequently by 2040 – drowning many major cities along with much of our most productive agricultural land – washing away homes and soil in the process. Human Population Drift and Urbanisation causes the destruction of arable land – as it is consumed by urban settlers and property speculators to build more cities.

By 2050 we may well have achieved the end of the World as we know it.....

• .....Global Massive Change is an evaluation of global capacities and limitations. It includes both utopian and dystopian views of the emerging world future state, in which climate, the environment and geology are dominated by human manipulation –

– Human Activity is the major factor in climate change environmental and ecological degradation.

– Environment – man now moves more rock and earth than do all natural geological processes.

– Ecology – global extinction rate is currently greater than that of the PTB extinction event

– Natural Resources – Food, Energy and Water (FEW) Crisis – global shortage, natural resources


• Current trends in Human Population Growth are unsustainable – today we are already beginning

to run out of Food, Energy and Water (FEW) – a crisis which will first limit, then reverse human

population growth. Ecological stability and sustainability may be preserved – but only at the

expense of the continued, unchecked growth of human populations. Most natural resources –

arable land, fertilisers, food, energy sources, even clean water – begin to run out by about 2040.

Worst-case Extrapolated Population Curves and Growth Limit Analysis scenarios indicate a

dramatic collapse in population from about 2040 onwards - with numbers falling to well below the

1bn mark and probably recovering and stabilising out at around 1bn by the end of the century.

• Socio-Anthropologists, Economists and Demographic / Ethnographic Geographers – based on

the principles of Thomas Malthus and Pierre Verhulst – have updated population growth limit

curve extrapolations, which tend to converge towards a Global Population Collapse scenario by

the middle of this century. There are over 7bn Humans on the Earth today – rising from 1.6bn at

the turn of the 20th century. Over one-half of that human population is now urbanised, living in

cities – most of which are built either on the coast or alongside inland waterways. By 2050,

upwards of two-thirds of the 8-9bn human population will now be dwelling in cities – built mostly

near the coast, estuaries and deltas, alongside rivers, lakes and inland waterways. Rising sea

levels and intensifying weather systems will periodically create storm surges and flash floods

which will inundate land as far as 90 km from the present coast into the interior – drowning those

cities, killing and carrying off their inhabitants and washing away valuable real-estate and

infrastructure systems – along with the most productive coastal and river valley agricultural land.


• For most of human existence our ancestors have led precarious lives as scavengers, hunters, and

gatherers, living in communities ravaged by nature, predation, famine and disease. There were fewer

than 10 million human beings on Earth at any one time from the Neolithic period right up until the

Middle Ages. Today, many of our cities have more than 10 million inhabitants each - as global human

populations continue to grow unchecked. The total global human population stands today at 7 billion

- with as many as two or three billion more people arriving on the planet by 2050.

• Human Activity Cycles - Business, Social, Political, Economic, Historic and Pre-historic (Archaeology)

Waves - may be compatible with, and map onto - one or more of the Natural Cycles. Current trends

in Human Population Growth are unsustainable – we are already beginning to run out of Food,

Energy and Water (FEW) – which will first limit, then reverse human population growth. Over the long

term, ecological stability and sustainability will be preserved – but only at the expense of the

continued, unchecked growth of human populations. There are eight major episodic threats to

Human Society, which are “Chill”, “Grill”, “Ill”, “Kill”, “Nil”, “Spill”, “Thrill” and “Till” Moments: -

• “Chill Moments” – periods of rapid cooling, e.g. Ice Age Glaciations (Pluvial Periods) causing

depopulation of early hominids in Northern Europe in Pleistocene Eolithic times, abandonment of the

high fells, moors and highlands in Britain during the Iron Age Climate Anomaly, and impact of the

medieval “mini Ice Age” on Danish settlers in Greenland. These events may be linked to cyclic

oscillations in water conditions in the North Atlantic – causing periodic fluctuations or even failure of

the Gulf Stream current – which in turn interrupts the flow of warm water (and moist air) from the

Caribbean to the North Atlantic, vital in maintaining temperate weather systems in Western Europe.


• “Grill Moments” - rapidly rising temperatures such as found in Ice Age Inter-Glacial episodes (Inter-

pluvial Periods) – causing environmental and ecological change under heat stress and drought –

precipitating the disappearance of the Neanderthal, Solutrean and Clovis cultures, drying, deforestation

and desertification driving the migration of the Anastasia in SW America along with desertification

drifting south and impacting on Sub-Saharan cultures today.

• “Ill Moments” - Contact with an foreign civilization or alien population and their parasitic bio-cloud -

carrying contagious diseases, which in pandemics to which the native population under exposure has

little or no immunity. Examples are the Bubonic Plague - Black Death - arriving in Europe from Asia,

Spanish Explorers sailing up the Amazon and spreading Smallpox to Amazonian Basin Indians from the

Dark Earth - Terra Prate - Culture and Columbian Sailors returning to Europe introducing Syphilis from

the New World, the Spanish Flu Pandemic carried home by returning soldiers at the end of the Great

War – infecting 40% and killing more people than did all the military action during the whole of WWI.

• “Kill Moments” – Invasion, conquest and genocide by a foreign civilization or alien population with

superior technology – destruction of mega-fauna, Roman conquest of Celtic Tribes in Western Europe,

William the Conquerors’ “Harrying of the North” in England, Spanish conquistadores meet Aztecs and

Amazonian Indians in Central and South America, Cowboys v. Indians in the plains of North America…..

• “Nil Moments” – Singularity or Hyperspace Events where the Earth and Solar System are swallowed

up by a rogue Black Hole – or the dimensional fabric of the whole Universe is ripped apart when two

Membranes (Universes) collide in hyperspace and one dimension set is subsumed into the other – they

could then merge into a large multi-dimensional Membrane – or split up into two new Membranes?....

History and Future of Climate and Environmental Change

• “Spill Moments” - Local or Regional Natural Disasters e.g. Andesitic volcanic eruption at subduction

tectonic plate margins - Vesuvius eruption and pyroclastic cloud destroying the Roman cities of

Herculaneum and Pompeii, Volcanic eruption / collapse causing Landslides and Tsunamis - Stromboli

eruption / collapse weakening the Minoan Civilisation on Crete, Krakatau eruption causing Indonesian

Tsunamis, ocean-floor sediment slips causing in recent years the recent Pacific and Indian Oceanic, and

Japanese Tsunamis – resulting in widespread coastal flooding, inundation & destruction.

• “Thrill Moments” - Continental or Global Natural Disasters – Extinction-level Events (ELE) such as the

Deccan and Siberian Traps Basaltic Flood Volcanicity, Asteroid and Meteorite Impacts, Gamma-ray

Bursts from nearby collapsing stars dying and going Supernova – scenarios which have all variously

contributed towards the late Pre-Cambrian “Frozen Globe”, Permian-Triassic and Cretaceous-Tertiary

boundary global mass extinction events,,,,,”

• “Till Moments” - Society’s growth-associated impacts on its own ecological and environmental support

systems, for example intensive agriculture causing exhaustion of natural resources by the Mayan and

Khmer cultures, de-forestation and over-grazing causing catastrophic environmental damage and

ecological disasters - resulting in climatic change – for the Easter Island culture, the de-population of

upland moors and highlands in Britain from the Iron Age onwards – including the Iron Age retreat from

northern and southern English uplands, the Scottish Highland Clearances and subsequent replacement

of subsistence crofting by deer and grouse for hunting and sheep for wool on major Scottish Highland

Estates – up to today with the current de-forestation by semi-nomadic pastoralists and resulting process

of desertification drifting south, destroying marginal pastoral land in sub-Saharan Africa.....


• When we look at possible, probable and likely future human outcomes, we often extrapolate Malthus / Verhulse population growth curves / economic limiting factors / patterns and trends from previous human civilisations – which in the past have all ended in collapse scenarios where human cultures and societies have emerged, developed, experienced rapid growth, plateaued, declined – and have finally failed, died out or just simply disappeared from the historic record: -

• Many complex human societies (Solutrean, Clovis, Mayan, Aztec, Khmer and Easter Island) have been displaced, over-run, lost or disappeared, often as a result of a catastrophic event – a natural disaster, climate change, disease, exposure to a culture with superior technology – or simply as a consequence of their own society’s growth-associated impacts driving destruction of ecological and environmental support systems – dangers that we all very much still face today.

Inca (Peru)

Aztecs (Mexico)

Olmec Civilisation

Mayan Civilisation

Muisca and Tairona Cultures

Pueblo Indians (Anastasia) – South-Western USA

Amazonian Indians - Dark Earth (Terra Prate) Culture

Indus Valley (Ayrian) Civilisation

Khmer Civilisation (Amkor)

Easter Islanders

Greenland Vikings (Medieval “mini Ice Age”)

Eocene - early hominids

Neanderthals

Solutrean / Clovis Cultures

Scythes

Parthians

Mesopotamians

Babylonians

Assyrians

Minoan Civilisation

Phoenicians

Etruscans

Human Activity Shock Waves

1. Stone – Tools for hunting, crafting artefacts and making fire

2. Fire – Combustion for warmth, cooking and for managing the environment

3. Agriculture – Neolithic Age Human Settlements

4. Bronze – Bronze Age Cities and Urbanisation

5. Ship Building – Communication, Culture ,Trade

6. Iron – Iron Age Empires, Armies and Warfare

7. Gun-powder – Global Imperialism, Colonisation

8. Coal – Mining, Manufacturing and Mercantilism

9. Engineering – Bridges, Boats and Buildings

10. Steam Power – Industrialisation and Transport

11. Industrialisation – Mills, Factories, Foundries

12. Transport – Canals, Railways and Roads

13. Chemistry – Dyestuff, Drugs, Explosives, Petrochemicals and and Agrochemicals

14. Electricity – Generation and Distribution

15. Internal Combustion – Fossil Fuel dependency

16. Aviation – Powered Flight – Airships, Aeroplanes

17. Physics – Relativity Theory, Quantum Mechanics

18. Nuclear Fission – Abundant Energy & Cold War

19. Electronics – Television, Radio and Radar

20. Jet Propulsion – Global Travel and Tourism

21. Global Markets – Globalisation and Urbanisation

22. Aerospace – Rockets, Satellites, GPS, Space Technology and Inter-planetary Exploration

23. Digital Communications – Communication Age -Computers, Telecommunications and the Internet

24. Smart Devices / Smart Apps – Information Age

25. Smart Cities of the Future – The Smart Grid – Pervasive Smart Devices - The Internet of Things

26. The Energy Revolution – The Solar Age – Renewable Energy and Sustainable Societies

27. Hydrogen Economy – The Hydrogen Age – fuel cells, inter-planetary and deep space exploration

28. Nuclear Fusion – The Fusion Age – Unlimited Energy - Inter-planetary Human Settlements

29. Space-craft Building – The Exploration Age - Inter-stellar Cities and Galactic Urbanisation

“Kill Moments” – Major Natural and Human Activity catastrophes – War, Famine, Disease, Natural Disasters

“Culture Moments” – Major Human Activity achievements - Technology Development, Culture and History

Industrial Cycles – the phases of evolution for any given industry at a specific location / time (variable)

Technology Shock Waves – Stone, Agriculture, Bronze, Iron, Steam, Digital and Information Ages: -

Technology Shock Waves Type Force Technology Shock Wave Event

1 Technology

Shock Waves

Technology

Innovation

Stone – Tools for Hunting, Crafting Artefacts and Making Fire

Fire – Combustion - Warmth, Cooking, changing the Environment

Agriculture – Neolithic Age Human Settlements

Bronze – Bronze Age Cities and Urbanisation

Ship Building – Communication, Culture and Trade

Iron – Iron Age Empires, Armies and Warfare

Gun-powder – Global Imperialism and Colonisation

Coal – Mining, Manufacturing and Mercantilism

Engineering – Bridges, Boats and Buildings

Steam Power – Industrialisation and Transport

Industrialisation – Mills, Factories and Foundries

Transport – Canals, Railways and Roads

Chemistry – Dyestuff, Drugs, Explosives and Agrochemicals

Electricity – Generation and Distribution

Internal Combustion – Fossil Fuel dependency

Physics – Relativity Theory and Quantum Mechanics

Nuclear Fission – Abundant Energy and the Cold War

Electronics – Satellites and Space Technology

Digital Communications – The Information Age

Global Markets – Globalisation and Urbanisation

Smart Cities of the Future – The Solar Age – Renewable Energy

Nuclear Fusion– The Hydrogen Age - Inter-planetary Settlements

Space-craft Building – The Exploration Age - Inter-stellar Cities

Horizon Scanning, Tracking and Monitoring – Human Impact Scenarios

Type Force Random

Event

Weak

Signal

Strong

Signal

Wild card Black Swan

1 Oil-Price

Shock

Market

forces

Oil and gas

demand grows

beyond supply

Oil and Gas

Price inflation

2 Money

Supply Shock

Market

forces

Cash demand

grows beyond

money supply

Money Supply

shrinks, high

Interest rates

3 Sovereign

State Default

Market

forces

Public Debt

exceeds limits

Interest rates

rapidly rise

State cannot

raise Loans

State cannot

repay Loans

Sovereign Loan

Default Crisis

4 Food Crisis Natural +

Market

forces

Food demand

grows beyond

food supply

Food Price

inflation

Food

shortage -

hunger

Food crisis –

hunger and

illness

Famine – hunger,

illness, starvation

and death

5 Energy Crisis Natural +

Market

forces

Energy

demand grows

beyond supply

Energy Price

inflation

Energy

shortage

Energy crisis Energy Failure –

supply interruption

brown / black out

6 Water Crisis Natural

forces +

Human

Impact

Climate

Change

Rainfall

increases in

wet areas

High tide

with severe

storm cause

Sea / River

levels to rise

Coastal cities

and farmland

inundated by

Storm and

Tidal Surges

Flooding - Coast,

Deltas, Estuaries

and River Valleys

are submerged up

to 90km inland


forces +

Human

Impact

Climate

Change

Rainfall

decreases in

dry areas

Water

shortfall –

wells dry out

& crops fail.

Water crisis –

rivers no

longer reach

the sea

Drought –

Famine, Disease

(typhoid, cholera

and dysentery)

Fiscal Shock Waves

Type Force Fiscal Black Swan Event

1 Oil-Price

Shock

Market

forces

Cyclic Economic downturns and the global recessions that followed have

been linked with Oil price shocks since the 1970s. In the 1980s spurred on

by these events, Economists analysed the relationship between the price of

oil and industrial performance in a number of econometric studies, finding a

positive correlation in the US and other industrial countries between rising oil

prices and falling industrial output. The Oil Price shock of 2008 (oil prices

rose to well over $100 / barrel) had a reduced impact on the world economy.

2 Money

Supply

Shock

Market

forces

The Money Supply Shock Event of 2008 led to the “Credit Crunch” Black

Swan Event. Fiscal Models of the demand and supply of money are either

inconsistent with the contemporary adjustment of the price level to expected

changes in the nominal money supply - or imply implausible fluctuations in

interest rates in response to unexpected changes in the nominal money

supply. A “shock-absorber” model of money demand and supply in which

money supply shocks affect the synchronisation of purchases and sales of

assets - creates a temporary desire to hold more or less liquidity (money

reserves) than would otherwise be the case. Estimated values for Shock-

absorber model variables improve the short-run money demand functions.

3 Sovereign

Sate Debt

Default

Market

forces

Whilst Portugal, Italy, Greece, Ireland, Iceland and Spain – even the USA –

might be on the brink of defaulting on their sovereign loan repayments –

causing global markets to plunge and economies to decelerate – historically

there’s nothing particularly new or unusual about this type of financial crisis.

Human Activity Cycles

Type Force Fiscal Cycles

1 Short Period

Human

Activity

Waves

Market

Forces

SHORT PERIOD HUMAN ACTIVITY WAVES

Seasonal Activities – Diurnal to Annual (1 day to 1 year)

– Farming, Forestry and Fishing

Price Curves – short-term, variable Market Trends

– Trading and Fiscal Cycles

2 Medium

Period Human

Activity

Waves

Market

Forces

MEDIUM PERIOD HUMAN ACTIVITY WAVES – Joseph Schumpter Economic Waves

Kitchin inventory cycle of 3–5 years (after Joseph Kitchin);

Juglar fixed investment cycle of 7–11 years (Clement Juglar - as 'the business cycle’);

Kuznets infrastructural investment cycle of 15–25 years (after Simon Kuznets);

Generation Wave – 20-25 years (four or five per Innovation Wave and Saeculum)

Innovation Wave – Major Scientific, Technology, Industrial Cycles and Waves @ 80 yr

Sub-Innovation Waves – Minor Technology Innovation Cycles @ 40 years

(2 x Kuznets Waves ?)

Kondratiev wave or long technological cycle of 45–60 years (after Nikolai Kondratiev)

Saeculum or Century Wave– Major Geo-political rivalry and conflict waves @ 100 years

Sub-Century Waves – Minor Arms Race Cycles @ 50 years

(1 x Kondratiev long technological wave ?)

3 Long Period

Human

Activity

Waves

Market

Forces

LONG PERIOD HUMAN ACTIVITY WAVES

Kill Moments – Major Human Activity threats – War, Famine, Disease, Natural Disasters

Culture Moments – Major Human Activity achievements – Science, Technology, Culture

Industrial Cycles – Evolution of any given industry at a specific location/time (variable)

Technology Shock Waves – Stone, Agriculture, Bronze, Iron, Steam, Information Ages

Human Activity - Impact on the Environment

• The global shortage of Food, Energy and Water – the FEW Crisis

FEW Crisis


• FEW - Food, Energy, Water Crisis - as scarcity of Natural Resources (FEW - Food, Energy,

Water) and increased competition from a growing population to obtain those scarce resources

begins to limit and then reverse population growth, global population levels will continue

expansion towards an estimated 8 or 9 billion human beings by the middle of this century –

and then collapse catastrophically to below 1 billion – slowly recovering and stabilising out

again at a sustainable population of about 1 billion human beings by the end of the century.

• The decline in quality and quantity of fresh water, combined with increased competition

among resource-intensive systems, such as food and energy production, is resulting in a

water supply crisis. The 2013 World Economic Forum Global Risks Report identified that the

water supply crisis is one of the top five risks in both likelihood of occurrence and severity of

impact on society over the next 10 years. The risks “underscore the need for technological

innovation to transform the way that we treat, distribute, use, recover, clean and reuse water

toward a differential, distributed and localised water treatment and reuse paradigm (i.e., treat

water and wastewater locally only to the required level dictated by the next intended use).”

• Estimates by the United Nations suggest that by 2050 the global population will increase to 9

billion, 50% greater than the population in 2010 (Figure 1), and that by 2025 nearly half of the

world’s population will be living in megacities – which may not necessarily be located in areas

where there is a sustainable, renewable or even a reliable water supply.....

FEW Crisis

Water Crisis

• Water is not simply an environmental issue – competition for scare resources such as water has the capacity to create risks and opportunities that can impact companies, investors, governments and entire geo-economic systems. Further proof of this point came from the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos, where the water supply crisis was ranked as one of the most likely and highest impact risks facing the world. In order to thrive sustainably, companies, investors, and governments need a wider and deeper understanding of where and how water risks are emerging worldwide.

• The World Resources Institute’s Aqueduct water risk mapping tool provides unprecedented insight into the complexities of water risk. Aqueduct’s global water risk maps are the product of three years of indicator development, data collection, and risk modelling. They bring together data on twelve different indicators of water risk – everything from water stress to drought to access to clean drinking water.

• Access to a free online tool lets users from governments, NGOs, companies, investors, and beyond combine the twelve indicators together using preset or customized weights to create a global water risk map that is tailored to their specific concerns. Aqueduct is already being used by companies ranging from McDonald’s to Goldman Sachs, as well as the National Intelligence Council and academics and governments worldwide.

Water Crisis

http://www.weforum.org/reports/global-risks-2013-eighth-edition

http://aqueduct.wri.org/

http://aqueduct.wri.org/atlas

http://www.wri.org/success-stories/2012/35-+of-mcdonalds-top-supply-chain-facilities-report-on-water-risk-exposure-using-wri-tool

http://aqueduct.wri.org/about/partners

The Food Energy and Water (FEW) Crisis

FEW Crisis

• The food inflation index in India rose 11.43% in the year to November 2013. Food

Price inflation is a “Weak Signal” predicating a forthcoming Food Shortage (Strong

Signal), which is often followed by a Food Crisis (Wild Card) and finally a Famine

(Black Swan Event) occurs.

• The fuel price index climbed 14.70% during the same period. The food price index

and fuel inflation stood at 10.60% and 15.17%, respectively in the previous month,

October. The primary articles price index rose was up 11.75%, compared with an

annual rise of 11.18%.

• Merchants – middlemen who loan farmers money to buy seed and sow crops, which is

secured against the following years harvest – begin stockpiling produce (onions, palm

oil, spices, rice) and food hoarding in anticipation of higher future prices – causing

food shortages in towns and cities and so driving up food prices (food inflation).

• Large global Agronomy corporations distort local food demand and supply by dumping

imported crops at below the price of production in a food glut (e.g. Importing bananas

to producing countries), or favouring export markets over local markets during a food

shortage (e.g. exporting basmati rice from India to higher price markets in the west).

FEW Crisis

• Most economists agree that the Indian government has little room for manoeuvre – they

understand that the government has been unable to address pressure points in the food

supply chain, such as failures in food production, food hoarding and stockpiling by the food

merchants who buy produce directly from farmers, as well as logistics bottlenecks in food

distribution and supply further along the food chain. These factors all contribute towards

an increasing shortage of food reaching urban markets – and in turn drive food inflation.

• The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) increased its base interest rate by 25 basis points to 8.5

percent at the end of November 2013. The central bank has raised its key benchmark

rates 12 times in the last 18 months – causing economic growth in India to slow down and

stall.

• Market analysts were earlier supportive of this fiscal stance to some extent - but over

recent time, they have become somewhat frustrated with the early inflexibility and later

rigidity of the RBI and now market sentiment greets the raising of interest rates with

dismay – as it has been largely ineffective in tackling inflation.

• The RBI is expecting the annual inflation to fall to 7 percent by March and assures

analysts that further rate hikes will not be made if the inflation moderates as per

estimations the central

FEW Crisis


1 Food Crisis Natural

forces +

Market

forces

Food Price inflation is a “Weak Signal” predicating a forthcoming Food

Shortage (Strong Signal), which is often followed by a Food Crisis (Wild Card)

and then ultimately a Famine (Black Swan Event) arrives. Pressure points in

the food supply chain include failures in food production, food hoarding and

stockpiling by the food merchants who buy produce directly from farmers, and

logistics bottlenecks in food distribution and supply further along the food chain

by agronomy conglomerates. These factors contribute towards an increasing

shortage of food reaching urban markets – and so in turn drives food inflation.

2 Energy

Crisis

Natural

forces +

Market

forces

Energy Price inflation is a “Weak Signal” predicating a forthcoming Energy

Shortage (Strong Signal), which is often followed by a Energy Crisis (Wild

Card) and finally a collapse in Energy Supply (Black Swan Event). Pressure

points in the energy supply chain include Government intervention in Energy

Markets – energy policy, taxation, over regulation and failure to plan for

succession in energy production and supply. In the UK, demand exceeds

supply by 10% - the balance being imported from France. Closure of Nuclear

and Coal-fired power stations without adequate replacement means that from

2015-2025 the total UK energy shortfall will rise rapidly to between 20-30%


forces +

Market

forces

Global warming is likely to cross the critical threshold of 2C by the end of this

century. That would have serious consequences, including sea level rises,

heat-waves and changes to rainfall - meaning that dry regions get less and wet

areas receive more rain. More rivers will run dry before reaching the ocean.

Environment Scanning, Tracking and Monitoring Processes

• Environment Scanning, Tracking and Monitoring is a systematic search and examination of global internet content – “BIG DATA” – information which is gathered, processed and used to identify potential threats, risks, emerging issues and opportunities in the Physical World - allowing for the incorporation of mitigation and exploitation into in the policy making process - as well as improved preparation for contingency planning and disaster response.

• Environment Scanning is used as an overall term for analysing the future of the Physical World – ranging from extra-terrestrial threats to the Climate, the Environment and Ecological sub-systems - considering how emerging patterns and trends might potentially affect current policy and practice. This helps policy makers in government to take a longer-term strategic approach, and makes present policy more resilient to future uncertainty. In developing a Global Risk Management policy, Environment Scanning can help policy makers to develop new insights and to think differently about “outside of the box” solutions to climate, environmental and ecological threats – and opportunities.

• In contingency planning and disaster response, Environment Scanning helps to manage risk by discovering and planning ahead for the emergence of unlikely, but potentially high impact events. There are a range of possible methodological approaches, such as developing alternative future scenarios.

Environmental Shock Waves

Environmental Shock Waves

Cat Event Group Force Environmental Shock Waves

A Natural

Disasters &

Catastrophe

Natural

Forces

Natural disasters occur when extreme magnitude events of stochastic

natural processes cause severe damage to human society. "Catastrophe" is

used about an extreme disaster, although originally both referred only to

extreme events (disaster is from the Latin, catastrophe from Ancient Greek).

Human Activity Cycles - Business, Social, Political, Economic, Historic and

Pre-historic (Archaeology) Waves - may be compatible with, and map onto -

one or more Natural Cycles. Current trends in Human Population Growth

are unsustainable – we are already beginning to run out of Food, Energy

and Water (FEW) – which will first limit, then reverse human population

growth. Ecological stability and sustainability will be preserved – but only at

the expense of the continued, unchecked growth of human populations.

B Global

Massive

Change

Events

Human

Activity

Anthropogenic Impact (Human Activity) on the natural Environment - Global

Massive Change Events. In their starkest warning yet, following nearly

seven years of new research on the climate, the Intergovernmental Panel on

Climate Change (IPCC) said it was "unequivocal" and that even if the world

begins to moderate greenhouse gas emissions, warming is likely to cross

the critical threshold of 2C by the end of this century. That would have

serious consequences, including sea level rises, heat-waves and changes to

rainfall - meaning already dry regions get less and wet areas receive more.



Environment Scanning, Tracking and Monitoring – Extinction Level Scenarios

Event Type Force Random Event Weak

Signal

Strong

Signal


1 Hyperspace

Event

Quantum

Dynamics

Membranes

collide in

Hyperspace

(none – event

unfolds at the

speed of light)

(none –

speed of

light event)

(none – event

unfolds at the

speed of light)

The end of

the Universe

2 Singularity

Event

Quantum

Dynamics

Black Hole

appears in the

Solar System

(none – event

unfolds at the

speed of light)

(none –

speed of

light event)

(none – event

unfolds at the

speed of light)

The end of

the Solar

System

3 Alien

Contact

Event

Biological

Disease

Contact with the

bio-cloud

of an Alien host

People start

collapsing in

the street

Global

Pandemic

declared

Hospitals and

Mortuaries

inundated by

disease

victims

Disease –

90-95 % of the

total Human

Population lost

4 Alien

Contact

Event

Biological

Predation

Contact with an

Alien force

People are

being predated

in the street

Global

Conflict

event

declared

Hospitals and

Mortuaries

inundated by

attack victims

Attack –

90-95 % of the

total Human

Population lost

5 Global

Warfare

Human

Conflict /

WMD

Exposure to

Weapons of Mass

Destruction

People start

collapsing in

the street

Global

Conflict

declared

Hospitals and

Mortuaries

inundated by

attack victims

Attack –

90-95 % of the

total Human

Population lost


Event

Type

Force Random

Event

Weak

Signal

Strong

Signal


6 Coronal

Mass

Ejection

Event

Solar

Nuclear

Fusion

Coronal Mass

Ejection event

from the Sun

Coronal flare

detected by

Astronomers

Sky turns

violet with

blue/green

Aurora

Ozone layer

destroyed and

solar radiation

floods Earth

Radiation –

Biohazard -

lethal levels of

solar radiation

7 Electro-

magnetic

Event

Earths

Magnetic

Force

Weakening

and Reversal

of the Earths

magnetic field

Compasses no

longer point to

magnetic North

Sky turns

violet with

blue/green

Aurora

Magnetic field

destroyed and

solar radiation

floods Earth

Radiation –

Biohazard -

lethal levels of

solar radiation

8 Bio-tech

Disaster

Event

Nano-

Robotics

Nano-robots

engineered to

de-construct

escape from

the laboratory

Nano-robots

begin to de-

construct the

Biosphere and

Eco-systems

Global

Famine

declared

Hospitals and

Mortuaries

inundated by

famine victims

Eco-system

collapses –

90-95 % of the

total Human

Population lost

9 Bio-tech

Disaster

Event

Smart

Robotics

Smart Robots

engineered for

warfare escape

from laboratory

People start

being predated

in the street

Global

Conflict

declared

Hospitals and

Mortuaries

inundated by

attack victims

Attack –

90-95 % of the

total Human

Population lost

10 Bio-tech

Disaster

Event

Viruses

and Germs

Bio-engineered

pathogens

escape from

the laboratory

People start

collapsing in

the street

Global

Pandemic

declared

Hospitals and

Mortuaries

inundated by

disease victims

Disease –

90-95 % of

Human

Population lost


Event

Type

Force Random

Event

Weak

Signal

Strong

Signal


11 Global

Massive

Change

Event

Human

Impact on

Eco-

system

Human

Population

exceeds

Malthusian

limits

The toxic by-

products of

Human Activity

destroy the

Environment

Global

Ecology crisis

and Famine

declared

Hospitals and

Mortuaries

inundated by

poison victims

Eco-system

collapses due

to Poisoning –

90-95 % of the

total Human

Population lost

12 Global

Massive

Change

Event

Food,

Energy

Water

(FEW)

Crisis

Human

Population

exceeds

Malthusian

limits

People are no

longer able to

find enough

Food

Global Food,

Energy Water

(FEW) crisis

declared

Hospitals and

Mortuaries

inundated by

famine victims

Food runs out

– 90-95 % of

the total Human

Population lost

13 Global

Massive

Change

Event

Food,

Energy

Water

(FEW)

Crisis

Human

Population

exceeds

Malthusian

limits

People are no

longer able to

find enough

Energy - as

cities fail and

are abandoned

Global Food,

Energy Water

(FEW) crisis

declared –

society

collapses

Hospitals and

Mortuaries

inundated by

famine, poison

and climate

change victims

Energy runs

out – 90-95 %

of the Human

Population lost

14 Global

Massive

Change

Event

Food,

Energy

Water

(FEW)

Crisis

Human

Population

exceeds

Malthusian

limits

People are no

longer able to

find enough

Water

Global Food,

Energy Water

(FEW) crisis

declared

Hospitals and

Mortuaries

inundated by

drought victims

Water runs out

– 90-95 % of

the total Human

Population lost

Environment Scanning, Tracking and Monitoring – Global Level Scenarios Event

Type

Force Random

Event

Weak

Signal

Strong

Signal


15 Impact

Event

Gravity An Asteroid is

nudged out of

the Oort Cloud

A new Comet

is detected by

Astronomers

Earth-impact

trajectory

calculated

Shock wave,

thermal and

debris waves

Comet Impact

event destroys

Earths biosphere

16 Radiation

Event

Gamma

Rays

Supernova -

death of a star

within our local

Star Cluster

A Supernova

is detected by

Astronomers

Sky turns

violet with

blue/green

Aurora

Ozone layer

destroyed and

solar radiation

floods Earth

Radiation –

Biohazard event

- lethal levels of

solar radiation

17 Geo-

thermal

Event

Thermal

Energy

Vulcanicity –

The magma

chamber fills

up with lava

Ground level

elevation is

detected by

Geophysicists

Earthquakes

recorded as

the magma

chamber fills

Shock wave,

thermal and

debris waves

Volcanic

eruption –

Environment

destroyed

18 Tsunami

Event

Wave

Energy

Earthquake

occurs at mid-

oceanic ridge

Oceanic ridge

earthquake is

detected by

Geophysicists

Tsunami -

retreats from

Coast then

water rushes

inland

Coastal cities

and farmland

inundated by

Tsunami surge

to 90km inland

Flooding -

Coast, Deltas,

Estuaries & River

Valleys

submerged

Natural Cycles and Human Activity

Event

Type

Force Random

Event

Weak

Signal

Strong

Signal


19 Climate

Change

Solar

Forcing

Milankovich

Orbital Cycles

– Insolation

Solar Cycles

Gradual rise or

fall in average

temperature /

global climate

Environment

warms up and

dries / chills

out & freezes

Extinction-level

event followed

by adaptive

evolution

Ecological

destruction -

global massive

climate change

20 Climate

Change

Oceanic

Forcing

Dansgaard-

Oeschger and

Bond Cycles

(1,470 years)

Cyclic rapid

rise in oceanic

temperature /

global climate

Environment

warms up and

dries / chills

out & freezes

Ecological

event followed

by adaptive

evolution

Ecological

change – global

climate change

21 Climate

Change

Atmospheric

Forcing

Heinrich Event

– Atmospheric

Climate Cycles

Sudden rise in

atmospheric

temperature /

global climate

Environment

warms up and

dries / chills

out & freezes

Ecological

event followed

by adaptive

evolution

Ecological

change – global

climate change

22 Climate

Change

Impact of

Human

Activity

Global Climate

Change – Wet

average rainfall

increases in wet

areas

Combined

effect of Storm

Torrents and

Tidal Surges

are forecast

High tide with

severe storm

cause

Sea / River

levels to rise

Coastal cities

and farmland

inundated by

Storm and

Tidal Surges

Flooding -

Coast, Deltas,

Estuaries and

River Valleys

submerged up

to 90km inland

23 Climate

Change

Impact of

Human

Activity

Global Climate

Change – Dry

average rainfall

decreases in

dry areas

Water

shortage –

wells dry out

and crops fail.

Water

emergency –

rainfall fails or

stops in dry

areas

Water crisis –

rivers no

longer flow into

the sea

Drought –

famine, disease

(typhoid,

cholera and

dysentery)

Weak Signals

Weak Signals

Weak Signals are subtle indicators of novel and emerging ideas, patterns and trends which may give us a glimpse over the current horizon and allow us to peer through the mists of time into the future..... Weak Signals indicate possible future transformations and changes which are happening right now, on or even just beyond the visible horizon, predicating changes in how we do business, what business we do, and the future environment in which we will all live and work. Weak Signals – are messages from the future, subliminal temporal indicators of change (Random Events) coming to meet us from the distant horizon – perhaps indicators of novel and emerging desires, thoughts, ideas, influences, patterns and trends – which may arrive to interact with both current and historic waves, patterns and trends to alter, enhance, impact or effect future outcomes and events, or simply some future change taking place in the current environment in which we all share our life experiences.....

Weak Signals

• Weak Signal is a descriptor for an unusual and unexpected message from the future –

faint and subliminal – predicating a forthcoming Random Event. Weak Signal is sign

indicating either a possible future outcome or random event which has not been forecast

or anticipated (either because it seemed unlikely - or because no-one had even thought

about it) - but which may indicate some future extreme and far-reaching impact or effect.

1. SURPRISE – Weak Signals are a sudden and unexpected surprise to the observer.

2. SIGNIFICANCE - Weak Signals have significance as a message of a future random event,

predicating renewal or transformation – or signaling a new beginning or fresh chapter.

3. SPEED - Weak Signals appear out of nowhere – then either disperse or become stronger.

4. DUALITY OF NATURE - Weak Signals may indicate a possible future serious challenge or

threat – or reveal to the observer a future novel and unexpected window of opportunity.

5. PARADOX - Weak Signals at their first appearance could or should have been picked up

and recognised – if the Weak Signal is detected against the overwhelming foreground and

background noise - then identified, analysed and correctly accounted for.

Weak Signals

• Weak Signals – are messages, subliminal temporal indicators of ideas, patterns or trends

coming to meet us from the future – or perhaps indicators of novel and emerging, ideas,

influences and messages which may interact with both current and pre-existing patterns

and trends to impact or affect some change taking place in our current environment – even

an early warning or sign of impending random events, disasters or catastrophes which, at

some point, time or place in the Future, may predicate, influence or impact on future

events, objects or processes – to effect subtle, minor or major changes in how we live,

work and play – or even threaten the very existence of the world as we know it today.....

• A Weak Signal is an early warning or sign of change, which typically becomes stronger by

combining with other signals. The significance of a weak future signal is determined by the

nature and content of the message it contains – predicating positive or negative change –

and the scope and objectives of its recipient. Finding Weak Signals typically requires

systematic searching through “Big Data” - internet content, news feeds, data streams,

academic papers and scientific research data sets. A weak future signal requires: i)

support, ii) critical mass, iii) growth of its influence space, and dedicated actors, i.e. ‘the

champions’, in order to become a strong future signal - else Weak Signals evaporate or

disappear into the ether. A Weak Future Signal is usually first recognised by research

pioneers, think tanks or special interest groups (amateur astronomers and comets) – but

very often missed or dismissed by acknowledged “main-stream” subject matter experts.

Weak Signals

• Weak Signals – refer to Weak Future Signals in Horizon and Environment Scanning for any

unforeseen, sudden and extreme Global-level transformation or change Future Events in either

the military, political, social, economic or environmental landscape – some having an inordinately

low probability of occurrence - coupled with an extraordinarily high impact when they do occur.

• Weak Signal Types in Horizon Scanning

– Technology Shock Waves

– Supply / Demand Shock Waves

– Political, Economic and Social Waves

– Religion, Culture and Human Identity Waves

– Art, Architecture, Design and Fashion Waves

– Global Conflict – War, Terrorism, and Insecurity Waves

• Weak Signal Types in Environment Scanning

– Natural Disasters and Catastrophes

– Impact of Human Activity on the Environment - Global Massive Change Events

Weak Signals

1. Weak Signals are initially vague in their nature and difficult to interpret at the beginning of a new

Random Event, Weak Signal, Strong Signal, Wild Card and Black Swan Wave Series, so that

their future course and outcomes often remains unclear (ANSOFF, 1990) ;

2. The nature of the early information which can be assimilated from Random Events - Weak

Signals, Strong Signals, Wild Cards and Black Swan Events - arrive in an integrated Wave

Series (ANSOFF, 1975) and has little internal structure or reference, so cannot be described or

defined in advance of receiving those very first Weak Signals (MARCH and FELDMAN, 1981),

3. The Stochastic hybrid and cross-functional and Probabilistic nature of Weak Signals limits the

impact, relevance and application of Deterministic prescriptive methods and approaches, and

precludes rigid, inflexible algorithm-based expert systems approaches (GOSHAL and KIM, 1986).

4. In strategic decision making, the uniqueness in the form and function of Weak Signals, Strong

Signals, Wild Cards and Black Swan Events - implies the use of flexible approaches and

solutions based on Probabilistic Methods – including cognitive filtering, bounded rationality,

“fuzzy” logic, approximate reasoning, neural networks and adaptive systems (SIMON, 1983);

5. The random and ethereal nature of the Horizon and Environment Scanning, Tracking and

Monitoring process involves dependence - strange actors, clustering, numerous elements and

complex interactions - and requires very large scale (VLS) computing and “BIG DATA” Analytics

techniques to reliably and accurately discover, identify, classify and interpret Weak Signals.

Weak Signals

6. Neural Networks and Complex / Adaptive / Learning System Models combined with “BIG DATA”

methods are therefore likely to be the most successful and appropriate technology approaches for

executing both Horizon and Environment Scanning, Tracking and Monitoring studies.

7. A major component of the process of Horizon and Environment Scanning, Tracking and

Monitoring is achieved either by horizon or environmental scanners who capture weak signals

hidden within massive amounts of external raw data, and data scientists using “BIG DATA” content

techniques for data analysis - “washing and mashing” and “racking and stacking”

8. A Weak Future Signal is an early warning of change, which typically becomes stronger by combining

with other signals. The significance of a weak future signal is determined by the objectives of its

recipient, and finding it typically requires systematic searching. A weak future signal requires: i)

support, ii) critical mass, iii) growth of its influence space, and dedicated actors, i.e. ‘the champions’,

in order to become a strong future signal, or to prevent itself from becoming a strong negative signal.

A Weak Future Signal is often recognised by pioneers or special groups - not by acknowledged

subject matter experts

9. The Weak Future Signal Event Types – refer to subliminal indications of future unforeseen,

sudden and extreme Global-level transformation or change. Weak Signal Event Types in either the

military, political, social, economic or environmental landscape - having an inordinately low probability

of occurrence - coupled with an extraordinarily high impact when they do occur.

Weak Signals Weak Signal Property Different views and viewpoints

1 Nature Weak Signals are subtle indicators of ideas, patterns or

trends that give us a glimpse into the future – predicating

possible future transformations and changes which are

happening on or even just over the visible horizon, changes

in how we do business, what business we do, and the future

environment in which we will all live and work.

2 Quality

Weak Signals may be novel and surprising from the signal

analyst's vantage point - although many other signal

analyst's may have already, failed to recognise,

misinterpreted or dismissed the same Weak Signals

3 Purpose Weak Signals are used for Horizon Scanning, Tracking

and Monitoring and for Future Analysis and Management

4 Source Weak Signals, Strong Signals, Wild Cards and Black

Swan Events – are a sequence of waves linked and

integrated in ascending order of magnitude, which have a

common source or origin - either a single Random Event

instance or arising from a linked series of chaotic and

disruptive Random Events – generating Weak Signals from

a Random Event Cluster or Random Event Storm.


5 Wave-form Analytics and “Big Data” Global Internet Content

Wave-form Analytics may be used with “Big Data” to analyse how Random Events propagate through the space-time continuum in a related and integrated series of waves with an ascending order of magnitude and impact – the first wave to arrive is the fastest travelling - Weak Signals - something like a faint echo of a Random Event which may be followed in turn by a ripple (Strong Signals) then possibly by a wave (Wild Card) - which may indicate the unfolding a further increase in magnitude and intensity which finally arrives catastrophically - something like a tsunami (Black Swan Event).

6 Identification Weak Signals are sometimes difficult to track down, receive, tune in, identify, amplify and analyse amid the overwhelming volume of “white noise” from stronger signals and other foreground and background noise sources

7 Principle of Dual Nature (possibility of either an Opportunity or Threat)

Weak Signals may indicate the possibility of either a potential future threat or opportunity to yourself or your organization - or foretell the pending arrival of a future advantage or reversal – a “Wild card” or Black Swan” event


8 Perception Weak Signals are often missed, dismissed or scoffed at by

other Subject Matter Experts

9 Opportunity Weak Signals contain novel and emerging ideas, influences

and messages - therefore they represent an early window of

potential opportunity.

10 Impact Weak Signals arrive, become established, develop, grow

and mature - then peak, plateau decline and collapse – or

interact with current and pre-existing extrapolations,

patterns or trends to transform or change the landscape

11 Receipt / Observation Every Weak Future Signal requires –

1. a Receiver / Observer / Analyst (which could be

automated by deploying “Big Data” Analytics)

2. Subject mater experts, special interest groups etc. and

Empowered Stakeholders to achieve critical

momentum

3. growth of its support, championship and influence space

4. dedicated actors, e.g. “supporters and champions”

Weak Signals

Weak Signal Property Different views and viewpoints

12 Duration Weak signals only last for a brief period: – Transient Signal

1. Weak signals are seen as a sign that lasts for a moment,

but indicate a phenomenon (Random Event) behind it that

lasts longer – there may be a following Strong Signal

2. Weak signals are phenomena that last for a short period of

time (succeeded by strong signals and wild cards?)

Weak signal lasts longer:– it now becomes a Strong Signal

3. A weak signal is a cause for a change in the future

4. A weak signal is itself a change phenomenon

13 Transition phenomenon 1. A weak signal is created as a result of a spontaneous

Random Event phenomenon or Random Event Cluster

2. A weak signal is a sign of a future disruptive changes or

Individual / Local / Regional / Global Transformations

3. A weak signal may be an early indicator - and member of -

an integrated Wave Series

4. The transition phenomenon of a weak signal is that in the

future it will either get stronger (becomes a Strong Signal)

or weaker (attenuate and disappear from view)

Weak Signals


14 Objectivity v. Subjectivity 1. Weak signals exist independently of their receiver.

2. “Weak signals float in the phenomena space and

wait for someone to find them” – automation via

“Big Data” Analytics can address this issue.....

3. A weak signal does not exist without reception /

interpretation by a receiver / observer (which may

mitigated by automated via “Big Data” Analytics)

15 Interpretation The interpretation of a same signal can be different

from the viewpoint of different receivers of the signal.

Human Interpretation adds subjectivity to the signal –

even though it is thought to be objective – “Big Data”

Analytics may be used for the Validation process

16 Signal Strength over Time 1. The weak signal (as an indicator) is strengthening

2. A phenomenon, interpreted as weak signal, is

strengthening – it now becomes a Strong Signal

3. A phenomenon whose status is in question, is

strengthening – it now becomes a Strong Signal

Weak Signals


17 Roles and Responsibilities –

Receivers /Observers /

Analysts of the weak signal

(who receives, identifies,

observes and classifies)

1. Difficulties in defining the concept of Weak

Signals to Empowered Stakeholders – subject

mater experts, special interest groups, etc. –

explaining how they arrive from a single instance

or linked series of Random Events – or Event

Cluster / Storm

2. Differences in opinion on signal content between

signal Receiver, Observer and Analysts :-

resolved by special interest groups, subject mater

experts

18 Roles and Responsibilities –

Analysts / Interpreters /

Stakeholders in the signal

(who analyses and draws

useful valid conclusions)

1. Who is drawing the conclusions on the cause-

effect relationship? – the Receiver and the

Observer

2. Who is defining the credibility and significance of

weak signal? – the Observer and the Analyst

3. Who is the one that can affect important decisions

concerning the future? – Empowered

Stakeholders

Strong Signals

Strong Signals – represent the first clear and visible presence of a Random Event – the secondary arrival of stronger but slower-travelling waves containing more information of possible, probable and alternative future events – random events, future catastrophes, or indications o novel and emerging, ideas, influences and messages

Strong Signals

Strong Signals

• Strong Signal is a descriptor for an unusual and unexpected - but very real and apparent

- signal indicating a possible outcome or random event which has not been forecast or

anticipated (either because it seemed unlikely - or because no-one had even thought

about it) - but which may have some future extreme and far-reaching impact or effect.

1. SURPRISE – Strong Signals are a complete and unexpected surprise to the observer.

2. SIGNIFICANCE - Strong Signals have a significance as an indicator of change - or as an

signal for renewal or transformation – or signify a new beginning or fresh chapter.

3. SPEED - Strong Signals appear out of nowhere – then either disperse or magnify.

4. DUALITY OF NATURE - Strong Signals may indicate a possible serious challenge or

threat – or reveal to the observer a future novel and unexpected window of opportunity.

5. PARADOX - Strong Signals are rationalised by hindsight, as at their first appearance they

could or should have been foreseen had the relevant Weak Signals been available and

detected in the background noise, identified correctly, analysed and accounted for.

Strong Signals

• Strong Signals – represent the first clear and visible presence of a Random Event – the

secondary arrival of stronger but slower-travelling waves containing more information of

possible, probable and alternative future events – random events, future catastrophes, or

indications o novel and emerging, ideas, influences and messages which may interact with

both current and pre-existing patterns and trends to impact or affect some change taking

place in our environment - at some point, time or place in the future – for example, what

future climatic and ecological environment will live , work and play in what political, social

and economic environment will live , work and play in, how we live, work and play, what

business we do, how we do business and who we do Business with......

1. Strong Signals may demonstrate a substantial lag time before they follow their

preceding indicators, prior Weak Signals

2. Strong Signals may contain confirmation about future events – random events,

catastrophes, or indications o novel and emerging, ideas, influences and messages.

They therefore present a second potential window of opportunity if the first Weak Signals

in the series were undetected, overlooked or dismissed

3. Strong Signals arrive, become established, develop, grow and mature - then peak,

plateau decline and collapse or interact with current and pre-existing extrapolations,

patterns or trends which act to transform or change the current outlook or landscape.

Strong Signals

Property Different Views and Viewpoints

1 Nature Strong Signals follow Weak Signals – to give a more clear and apparent

indication of ideas, patterns or trends that provide us with a stronger and

more lasting glimpse into the future – predicating probable future

transformations and changes which are happening on or even just over

the visible horizon, changes in how we do business, what business we

do, and the future environment in which we will all live and work.

2 Purpose Strong Signals are used in Horizon Scanning, Tracking and Monitoring -

for Strategy Analysis and Strategy Management, Future Analysis and

Future Management

3 Source Weak Signals, Strong Signals (which are second in the sequence), Wild

Cards and Black Swan Events – are a linked sequence of integrated

waves in a timeline and ascending order of magnitude, which have a

common source or origin - either a single Random Event instance – or

arising from a linked series of chaotic and disruptive Random Events –

creating a Random Event Cluster or Random Event Storm.

Strong Signals


4 Identification Strong Signals are easier to recognise than Weak Signals,

receive, tune in, identify, amplify and analyse amid the

overwhelming volume of “white noise” from stronger signals and

other foreground and background noise sources

5 Perception Whereas Weak Signals are often missed, dismissed or scoffed at by

other Subject Matter Experts - Strong Signals are more widely

recognised and accepted

6 Opportunity Strong Signals bring confirmation of novel and emerging ideas,

influences and messages - therefore they represent an second

window of potential opportunity.

7 Quality Whereas Weak Signals may be novel and surprising from the signal

analyst's vantage point - Strong Signals are not as easily

dismissed as Weak Signals. Many other signal analyst's may now

confirm and support the content of such Strong Signals

9 Timing Strong Signals may demonstrate a substantial lag time before they

follow their preceding indicators, prior Weak Signals

Wild Cards

Wild Cards

• Wild Card is a descriptor for an unusual and unexpected outcome or event which has not

been forecast or anticipated (either because it seemed unlikely - or because no-one had

even thought about it) - but which has extreme impact and far-reaching and effect. This

term is also often used as a descriptive adjective - as in the expression wild-card event.

1. SURPRISE – Wild Card Events are a complete and totally unexpected surprise to the

observer - the scale of the event falling well outside the realm of previous experience.

2. SIGNIFICANCE - Wild Card Events have a significant impact as a catalyst of change - or

as an agent of renewal or transformation – or even signify a new beginning or fresh chapter.

3. SPEED - Wild Card Events appear out of nowhere – then unfold with speed and rapidity.

4. DUALITY OF NATURE - Wild Card Events may represent either a potentially serious

challenge or threat – or present the observer with a novel and unexpected opportunity.

5. PARADOX - Wild Card Events are rationalised by hindsight, as at their first appearance

they could or should have been foreseen had the relevant Weak Signals been available

and detected in the background noise, identified correctly, analysed and accounted for.

Wild Card Events

Definition of “Wild card” Event

• A “Wild card” Event is a surprise - an event or occurrence that deviates outside of what

would normally be expected of any given situation or set of circumstances, and which therefore

would be difficult to anticipate or predict. This term was coined by Stephen Aguilar-Milan in the

1960’s and popularised by Ansoff in the 1970’s. Wild card Events – are any unforeseen,

sudden and unexpected change events or transformation scenarios which occur within the

military, political, social, economic or environmental landscape - having a low probability of

occurrence, coupled with an high impact when they do occur (Stephen Aguilar-Milan): -

• Horizon Scanning – Wild card Event Types

– Technology Shock Waves

– Religion, Culture and Human Identity Shock Waves

– Art, Architecture, Design and Fashion Shock Waves

– Epidemics – outbreaks of contagious diseases

• Environment Scanning - Wild card Event Types

– Natural disasters – flooding, drought, earthquakes, volcanic activity

– Human Activity Impact on the Environment – Climate Change Events

Wild Cards

1. Wild Card Events have been defined, for example, by Rockfellow (1994), who speculated that a

wild card is "an event having a low probability of occurrence, but an inordinately high impact if it

does occur."

2. Wild Cards represents the appearance, materialisation or manifestation of a RANDOM EVENT

- either a potential threat or perceived opportunity to yourself and / or your organization - and

may contain within them, the seeds of a possible major future global advantage or reversal – a

forthcoming “Black Swan” event

3. Listing examples of specific 21st Century Wild Cards in 1994, Rockfellow defined three wild

cards principles: -

1. 21st Century Wild Cards manifest themselves at the beginning of the Business Cycle– or

act to bring to an end the current the Business Cycle (i.e. within 11 years of a prior cycle)

2. 21st Century Wild Cards have a probability of re-occurring again at a rate of less than 1 in

10 years – but reappear with increased speed, frequency, severity and impact over time

3. 21st Century Wild Cards events will likely have high impact on international businesses

4. Wild Cards are "low-probability, hi-impact events that happen quickly" and "they have huge

sweeping consequences." Wild cards, according to Petersen, generally surprise everyone,

because they materialize so quickly that the underlying social systems cannot effectively

anticipate or respond to them (Petersen 1999).

5. According to Cornish (2003: 19), a Wild Card is an unexpected, surprising or even startling

event that has sudden impact, important outcomes and far-reaching consequences. He

continues: "Wild cards have the power to radically change many processes and events and to

entirely overturn people's thinking, planning and actions."

Wild Cards


1 Nature Wild cards follow in the sequence of Random Events, Weak Signals and

Strong Signals – to give the first exposure to novel and emerging events

and event clusters, ideas, patterns or trends that arrive from the future –

beginning transformations and changes which now have a very real

presence and effect – impacting on how we do business, what business

we do, and the future environment in which we will all live, work and play.

2 Purpose Wild cards are used in Horizon Scanning, Tracking and Monitoring –

providing information for the purposes of Future Analysis and Future

Management, Strategy Analysis and Strategy Management,

3 Source Random Events, Weak Signals, Strong Signals and Wild cards and

Black Swan Events – are a linked sequence of integrated waves in a

timeline and ascending order of magnitude and impact, which have a

common source or origin - either a single Random Event instance – or

arising from a linked and integrated series of chaotic and disruptive

related Random Events – as part of a Random Event Cluster or

Random Event Storm.

Wild Cards


4 Identification Wild cards are much easier to recognise than Weak Signals and

Strong Signals, above the background of “white noise” from and

other signals from foreground and background noise sources

5 Perception Whereas Weak Signals and even Strong Signals are often missed,

dismissed or scoffed at by other Subject Matter Experts – Wild

cards events are almost universally recognised and accepted

6 Opportunity Wild cards bring realisation of startling new events, novel and

emerging ideas, influences and messages - therefore they represent

an third and final window of potential opportunity.

7 Quality Weak Signals and even Strong Signals may be novel and surprising

from the signal analyst's vantage point - Wild cards, however,

cannot be so easily dismissed. Many other signal analyst's may

now join in to confirm and support the content of such Wild cards.

9 Timing Wild cards may demonstrate a substantial lag time before they

follow their preceding indicators, those prior Weak Signals and their

followers, the Strong Signals

Wild Cards

• Climate and Environmental Agents & Catalysts of Change impact on Human Futures •

• For most of human existence our ancestors led precarious lives as scavengers, hunters,

and gatherers, and there were fewer than 10 million human beings on Earth at any one

time. Today, many of our cities have more than 10 million inhabitants each - as global

human populations continue to grow unchecked. The total global human population

stands today at 7 billion - with as many as three billion more people on the planet by 2050.

• Human Activity Cycles - Business, Social, Political, Economic, Historic and Pre-historic

(Archaeology) Waves - may be compatible with, and map onto - one or more Natural

Cycles – Orbital, Climate and so on. Current trends in Human Population Growth are

unsustainable – we are already beginning to run out of Food, Energy and Water (FEW) –

which will first limit, then reverse human population growth – falling below 1bn by 2060 ?

• Over the long term, ecological stability and sustainability will be preserved – but at the

expense of the continued, unchecked growth of human populations. Global population will

rise to 10 billion by 2040 – followed by a massive population collapse to under 1 billion -

recovering to 1 billion by the end of the 21st century. There are eight major threats to

Human Society, which are “Chill”, “Grill”, “Ill”, “Kill”, “Nil”, “Spill”, “Thrill” and “Till”.

Environmental Wild Card Event Types

Event Type Force Environmental Black Swan Event

1 Natural

Disasters &

Catastrophe

Natural

Forces

Natural disasters occur when extreme magnitude events of stochastic

natural processes cause severe damage to human society. "Catastrophe" is

used about an extreme disaster, although originally both referred only to

extreme events (disaster is from the Latin, catastrophe from Ancient Greek).

Human Activity Cycles - Business, Social, Political, Economic, Historic and

Pre-historic (Archaeology) Waves - may be compatible with, and map onto -

one or more Natural Cycles. Current trends in Human Population Growth

are unsustainable – we are already beginning to run out of Food, Energy

and Water (FEW) – which will first limit, then reverse human population

growth. Ecological stability and sustainability will be preserved – but only at

the expense of the continued, unchecked growth of human populations.

2 Global

Massive

Change

Events

Human

Activity

Anthropogenic Impact (Human Activity) on the natural Environment - Global

Massive Change Events. In their starkest warning yet, following nearly

seven years of new research on the climate, the Intergovernmental Panel on

Climate Change (IPCC) said it was "unequivocal" and that even if the world

begins to moderate greenhouse gas emissions, warming is likely to cross

the critical threshold of 2C by the end of this century. That would have

serious consequences, including sea level rises, heat-waves and changes to

rainfall meaning dry regions get less and already wet areas receive more.



Wild Card Event Types

Type Force Technology Shock Wave Event

3 Technology

Shock Waves

Innovation Technology Shock Waves – Disruptive Technologies: -

Stone – Tools for Hunting, Crafting Artefacts and making Fire

Fire – for Warmth, Cooking and managing the Environment

Agriculture – Neolithic Age Human Settlements

Bronze – Bronze Age Cities and Urbanisation

Ship Building – Communication, Culture and Trade

Iron – Iron Age Empires, Armies and Warfare

Gun-powder – Global Imperialism and Colonisation

Coal – Mining, Manufacturing and Mercantilism

Engineering – Bridges, Boats and Buildings

Steam Power – Industrialisation and Transport

Chemistry – Dyestuff, Drugs, Explosives and Agrochemicals

Internal Combustion – Fossil Fuel dependency

Physics – Satellites and Space Technology

Nuclear Fission – Globalisation and Urbanisation

Digital Communications – The Information Age

Smart Cities of the Future – The Solar Age - Renewable

Energy and Sustainable Societies

Nuclear Fusion – The Hydrogen Age - energy independence -

Inter-planetary travel and discovery, Human Settlements

Space-craft Building – The Exploration Age - Inter-stellar

travel & discovery, Galactic Colonisation, Cities & Urbanisation

Wild Card Event Types Type Force Wild card Event

4 Impact

Event

Gravity Asteroid or comet impact – the odds of an asteroid or comet impact on the

Earth depend on the size of the Object. An Object approximately 15 feet in

diameter hits the Earth once every several months; 35 feet every 10 years; 60

feet every 100 years; 200 feet, or size of the Tunguska impact, every 200

years; 350 feet every several thousand years; 1,000 feet every 50,000 years;

six tenths of a mile every 500,000 years; and 5 to 6 miles across every 100

million years.

5 Thermal

Process

Geo-

Thermal

Energy

“Spill Moments” - Local and Regional Natural Disasters e.g. Andesitic volcanic

eruption at tectonic plate margins – for example, the Vesuvius eruption and ash

cloud destroying the Roman cities of Herculaneum and Pompeii, and Volcanic

eruption / collapse causing Landslides and Tsunamis - Stromboli eruption /

collapse fatally weakening the Minoan Civilisation on Crete, Krakatau eruption

in the 19th Century causing Indonesian Tsunamis, ocean-floor sediment slips

causing in recent years the recent Pacific / Indian Oceanic, and Japanese

Tsunamis – resulting in coastal flooding, inundation and widespread destruction

“Thrill Moments” - Continental or Global Natural Disasters – Extinction-level

Events (ELE) such as the Deccan and Siberian Traps Basaltic Flood Volcanic

Events, Asteroid and Meteorite Impacts, Gamma-ray Bursts from nearby

collapsing stars dying and going Supernova – which have all variously

contributed towards the late Pre-Cambrian “Frozen Globe”, Permian-Triassic

and Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary global mass extinction events.

Wild card Events Type Force Extinction-level Black Swan Event

6 Climate

Change

Human

Activity

Melting of the polar ice-caps, rising sea levels – combined with increased

severity and frequency of extreme weather events – El Nino and La Nina

have already begun to threaten these low-lying coastal cities (New Orleans,

Brisbane). By 2040, a combination of rising sea levels, storm surges of

increased intensity and duration and flash floods – will flood much more

often. Coast, Deltas, Estuaries & River Valleys will flood up to 90km inland

up to 90 km into the interior from the present coast – frequently drowning

many of the major cities along with much of our most productive agricultural

land – and washing away homes and soil in the process. Human Population

Drift to Cities and Urbanisation also drives the destruction of prime arable

land – as it is gobbled up by developers to build even more cities.

Liquid water melted by warm air at the surface of a glacier, runs down sink-

holes to the glacier base where it lubricates the rock / glacier interface –

causing glacier flow surges up to 20 times the normal flow-rate. Increased

glacial flow-rate is usually further aided and by the loss of sea pack ice –

which acts to moderate Glacier flow during cold periods - due to oceanic

temperature rise (oceanic climate forcing). This scenario does satisfy not

the timing requirements of climate change events which occur at the

culmination of a next Bond Cycles – believed to be oceanic climate forcing

phenomena. It does fit in well with the rapid rise in temperature that occurs

at the beginning of the next Bond Cycle – which takes only a few decades

after the culmination of the previous Bond Cycle.

Wild card Events

Type Force Black Swan Event

7 Climate

Change

Event

Solar

Forcing

Climate Change – Dansgaard-Oetcher and Bond Cycles - oceanic climate forcing

cycles consisting of episodes of rapid warming followed by slow cooling have been

traced and plotted over the last 26 cycles – 40,000 years - with metronomic precision

of exact 1,490-years periodicity. Solar orbital cycle variations with periodicities from

20,000 to 400,000-years have also been traced and plotted over many cycles – tens of

millions of years – again with metronomic regularity. These longer-scale Milankovich

Cycles are responsible for Pluvial and Inter-pluvial episodes (Ice Ages) during the

Quaternary period - due to orbital variation causing changes to solar climate forcing.

Global warming—Human Activity has been largely held responsible for the Earth

getting warmer every decade for the last two hundred years – and the rate of warming

has accelerated over the last few decades. The Earth could eventually wind up like its

greenhouse sister, Venus. “Grill” - rapidly rising temperatures such as found in Ice

Age Inter-Glacial episodes (Inter-pluvial Periods) – precipitating environmental and

ecological change under heat stress and drought – causing the disappearance of the

Neanderthal, Soloutrean and Clovis cultures with deforestation, desertification and

drying driving the migration or disappearance of the Anastasia in SW America - along

with the Sahara Desert migrating south and impacting on Sub-Saharan cultures.

.Global cooling— The Earth has dramatically cooled and plunged into Ice Ages on

many occasions throughout Geological History, Earth might eventually change to

resemble its frozen sister, Mars. “Chill” – rapid cooling, e.g. Ice Age Glaciations

(Pluvial Periods) causing the depopulation of Northern Europe in early hominid Eolithic

times and impact of the medieval “mini Ice Age” on Danish settlers in Greenland.


Type Force Wild card Event

5 Global

Massive

Change

Event

Human

Impact

on Eco-

system

FEW - Food, Energy, Water Crisis - as scarcity of Natural Resources (FEW -

Food, Energy, Water) and increased competition to obtain those scarce

resources begins to limit and then reverse population growth, global population

levels will continue expansion towards an estimated 8 or 9 billion human beings

by the middle of this century – then collapse catastrophically to below 1 billion –

slowly recovering and stabilising out again at a sustainable population of about 1

billion human beings by the end of this century.

“Till Moments” - Society’s growth-associated impacts on its own ecological and

environmental support systems, for example intensive agriculture causing

exhaustion of natural resources by the Mayan and Khmer cultures, de-

forestation and over-grazing causing catastrophic ecological damage and

resulting in climatic change – for example, the Easter Island culture, the de-

population of upland moors and highlands in Britain from the Iron Age onwards –

including the Iron Age retreat from northern and southern English uplands, the

Scottish Highland Clearances and replacement of subsistence crofting by deer

and grouse for hunting and sheep for wool on major Scottish Highland Estates

and the current sub-Saharan de-forestation and subsequent desertification by

semi-nomadic pastoralists. Like Samson, will we use our strength to bring down

the temple? Or, like Solomon, will we have the wisdom to match our technology?


Type Force Wild card Event

8 Alien

Contact

Event

Biological

Disease

“Ill Moments” - Contact with a foreign population or alien civilization and their

bio-cloud – bringing along with them their own parasite burden and contagious

diseases (viruses and bacteria) - leading to pandemics to which the exposed

human population has developed little or no immunity or treatment. Examples

include the Bubonic Plague - Black Death - arriving in Europe in ships from Asia,

Spanish Explorers sailing up the Amazon and spreading Smallpox to Amazonian

Basin Indians from the Dark Earth - Terra Prate - Culture and Columbian Sailors

returning to Europe introducing Syphilis from the New World, the Spanish Flu

Pandemic carried home by returning soldiers at the end of the Great War - which

killed more people than did all the military action during the whole of WWI).

9 Alien

Contact

Event

Biological

Predation

“Kill Moments” – Invasion, conquest and genocide by a civilisation with

superior technology, e.g. Roman conquest of Celtic Tribes in Western Europe,

William the Conquerors’ “Harrying of the North” in England, Spanish

conquistadores meet Aztecs and Amazonian Indians in Central and South

America, Cowboys v. Indians across the plains of North America…..

10 Hyper-

space

Event

Quantum

Dynamics

“Nil Moments” – Singularity or Hyperspace Events where the Earth and Solar

System are swallowed up by a rogue Black Hole – or the dimensional fabric of

the whole Universe is ripped apart when two Membranes (Universes) collide in

hyperspace and one dimension set is subsumed into the other – they merge into

a large multi-dimensional Membrane – and split up into two new Membranes?

Recent Historic Wild card Events Wild card Events Surprise Impact Type Trigger

Tay Bridge disaster (1879) – railway bridge collapsed during a

violent storm whilst a passenger train was passing across

High Medium Bridge

Design

Wind

Tacoma Narrows bridge collapse (1940) – road bridge

collapsed in a moderate wind due to “aeroelastic flutter”

High Low Bridge

Design

Wind

Flixborough Chemical Works Disaster (1974) – cyclo-hexane

chemical leak resulting in a hydrocarbon vapour cloud explosion

High Medium Health &

Safety

Equipment

Failure

Chernobyl nuclear disaster (1986) – safety systems shut down

for a technical exercise on the turbine generator – core meltdown

High High Health &

Safety

Human

Error

World Trade Centre (1990) – Wahid terrorist group activity High Medium Security Terrorism

World Trade Centre (2001) – Al Qaida terrorist group activity High High Security Terrorism

Buncefield storage depot (2005) – undetected oil fuel leak

ignited resulting in a hydrocarbon vapour cloud explosion


Safety

Equipment

Failure

Texas City oil refinery explosion (2005) – hydrocarbon cloud

accumulation from a fuel leak - resulting in a vapour explosion


Safety

Equipment

Failure

Gulf of Mexico oil rig explosion (2009) – high pressure methane

blow-back during deep water drilling - resulting in a explosion

High High Health &

Safety

Human

Error

Mumbai Taj Mahal Hotel (2012) – Taliban terrorist group activity High Medium Security Terrorism

Nairobi Shopping Mall (2013) – Al Shabab terrorist group activity High Medium Security Terrorism

Black Swan Events

Black Swan Events

Definition of “Black Swan” Event

• A “Black Swan” Event is a surprise - a random event or occurrence that deviates well beyond

the bounds of what is normally expected of any given situation or set of circumstances, and

which would be extremely difficult or impossible to anticipate, forecast or predict. This term was

popularised by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a global investment fund manager. Black Swan Events

are any unforeseen, sudden and extreme random events – agent and catalysts of massive

change, Global-level transformation scenarios which occur within the military, political, social,

economic or environmental landscape, having an inordinately low probability of occurrence -

coupled with an extraordinarily high impact when they do occur (Nassim Taleb).

• Horizon Scanning - Black Swan Event Types

– Pandemics - global outbreaks of Disease

– Political, Economic and Social Shock Waves

– Market Supply / Demand and Price Shock Waves

– Global Conflict – War, Terrorism, and Insecurity Shock Waves

• Environment Scanning - Black Swan Event Types

– Natural Disasters and Catastrophes

– Human Activity Impact on the Environment – Global Massive Change Events

Black Swan Events

• Black Swan events are typically random and unexpected - characterized by three main

criteria: first, they are surprising, falling outside the realm of usual expectation; second,

they have a major effect (sometimes even of historical significance); and third, with the

benefit of hindsight they are often rationalized as something that could or should have

been foreseen - had all of the facts been available and examined carefully enough.

• One of the chief contexts in which the term Black Swan currently occurs is in economic

and financial, especially in reference to the global economic turmoil of recent years.

Financial analysts have also extended the Black Swan metaphor to talk about grey

swans, events which are possible or known-about, and are potentially extremely

significant, but which are considered by some to be unlikely. Among a group of recently

identified grey swans in the financial domain is the so-called fiscal cliff, a cocktail of tax

increases and spending cuts which could be disastrous for the US economy.

• As an example, the previously highly successful hedge fund Long Term Capital

Management (LTCM) was forced into bankruptcy as a result of the ripple effect caused

by the Russian government's debt default. The Russian government's default

represents a Black Swan Event - because none of LTCM's Risk managers or their

computer models could have reasonably predicted this event , nor any of the Events

subsequent unforeseen impacts, consequences and effects.

http://www.macmillandictionary.com/open-dictionary/entries/grey-swan.htm

http://www.macmillandictionary.com/open-dictionary/entries/grey-swan.htm

http://www.macmillandictionary.com/buzzword/entries/fiscal-cliff

Black Swan Events

• The phrase Black Swan is a metaphor describing an unusual and rare random event

which is totally unanticipated (perhaps because it seemed impossible or because no-one

had considered it before) - which has extreme and far-reaching consequences. This term

is also often used as a descriptive adjective - as in the expression black-swan event.

1. SHOCK - Black Swan Events are a complete and totally unexpected shock to the observer

- the scale of the event falling well outside the bounds of any prior expectations.

2. SEVERE - Black Swan Events have a severe impact, even a historical significance, as a

catalyst of massive change - or as an agent bringing severe global transformation.

3. SUDDEN - Black Swan Events appear suddenly and unfold with an extraordinary pace.

4. DUALITY OF NATURE - Black Swan Events may represent either a potentially

catastrophic threat – or challenge the observer with novel and unexpected opportunities.

5. PARADOX - Black Swan Events are rationalised by hindsight, as at their first appearance

they could or should have been foreseen had the relevant Weak Signals been available

and detected in the background noise, identified correctly, analysed and accounted for.

Fiscal Black Swan Event Types


1 Oil-Price

Shock

Market

forces

Economic cycles and the global recessions that followed have been tightly

coupled with the price of oil since the Oil Price shocks of the 1970s. In the

1980’s, spurred on by these events, economists analysed the relationship

between the price of Oil and economic output in a number of econometric

studies, demonstrating a positive correlation in the US and other industrial

countries between oil prices and industrial output. The Oil Price shocks of

1990 and 2008 had a relatively lower impact on the global economy.

2 Money

Supply

Shock

Market

forces

Contemporary Fiscal Models for the demand and supply of money are either

inconsistent with the adjustment of price levels to expected changes in the

nominal money supply - or demonstrate implausible fluctuations in interest

rates in response to unexpected changes in the nominal money supply.

A new “shock-absorber” model of money demand and supply views money

supply shocks as impacting the synchronisation of purchases and sales of

assets - to create a temporary desire to hold more or less money than would

normally be the case. The shock-absorber variables significantly improve the

modelling of estimated short-run money demand functions in every respect.

3 Sovereign

State Debt

Default

Market

Forces

Whilst Portugal, Italy, Greece, Ireland, Iceland and Spain - even the USA -

might be on the brink of defaulting on its sovereign loans, causing global

markets to plunge and economies to decelerate, there’s nothing particularly

novel about this type of financial crisis – which has occurred many times.

Historic Financial Black Swan Events

Black Swan Events Surprise Impact Trigger Event

The Wall Street Crash (1927) High High Market Forces

The Great Depression (1929-1931) High High Market Forces

Oil Price Shock (1970) High High Arab-Israeli War

Global Recession (1970-1971) High High Market Forces

Oil Price Shock (1978) High High Market Forces



USA Sub-Prime Mortgage Crisis (2008) High High Market Forces

CDO Toxic Asset Crisis (2008) High High Market Forces

Financial Services Sector Collapse (2008) High High Market Forces

Credit Crisis (2008) High High Market Forces

Sovereign Debt Crisis (2008-2014) High High Market Forces

Money Supply Shock (2008) High High Market Forces


Trigger D

USA Sub-Prime

Mortgage Crisis

Trigger F

CDO Toxic

Asset Crisis

K

E Trigger

K Sovereign

Debt Crisis

B Trigger

I

Money

Supply

Shock

C Trigger

H

Financial

Services

Sector

Collapse

D Trigger

G

L

A Trigger

J

Credit

Crisis

Global

Recession

Black Swan Events

Definition of a “Black Swan” Event

• A “Black Swan” Event is an event or

occurrence that deviates beyond what is

normally expected of any given situation

and that would be extremely difficult to

predict. This term was popularised by

Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a finance

professor and former Investment Fund

Manager and Wall Street trader.

• Black Swan Events – are unforeseen,

sudden and extreme or change events or

Global-level transformation in either the

military, political, social, economic or

environmental landscape. Black Swan

Events have an inordinately low

probability of occurrence - coupled with an

extraordinarily high impact when they do

occur (Nassim Taleb). “Black Swan” Event Cluster or “Storm”

Geo-spatial Data Science

GIS Mapping and Spatial Analysis

• GIS MAPPING and SPATIAL DATA ANALYSIS •

• A Geographic Information System (GIS) integrates hardware, software and digital data capture devices for acquiring, managing, analysing, distributing and displaying all forms of geographically dependant location data – including machine generated data such as Computer-aided Design (CAD) data from land and building surveys, Global Positioning System (GPS) terrestrial location data - as well as all kinds of data streams - HDCCTV, aerial and satellite image data.....

• Spatial Data Analysis is a set of techniques for analysing 3-dimensional spatial (Geographic) data and location (Positional) object data overlays. Software that implements spatial analysis techniques requires access to both the locations of objects and their physical attributes. Spatial statistics extends traditional statistics to support the analysis of geographic data. Spatial Data Analysis provides techniques to describe the distribution of data in the geographic space (descriptive spatial statistics), analyse the spatial patterns of the data (spatial pattern or cluster analysis), identify and measure spatial relationships (spatial regression), and create a surface from sampled data (spatial interpolation, usually categorized as geo-statistics).

• The results of spatial data analysis are largely dependent upon the type, quantity, distribution and data quality of the spatial objects under analysis.

Geo-demographics - “Big Data”

The profiling and analysis of very large scale

(VLS) aggregated datasets in order to

determine a ‘natural’ structure of groupings

provides an important technique for many

statistical and analytic applications.

Cluster analysis on the basis of profile

similarities or geographic location is a

method where internal data structures alone

drive both the nature or number of “Clusters”

or natural groups and hierarchies. Clusters

are therefore entirely probabilistic – that is,

no pre-determinations or prior assumptions

are made as to their nature and content.....

Geo-demographic techniques are frequently

used in order to profile and segment human

populations along with their lifestyle events

into natural groupings or “Clusters” – which

are governed by geographical distribution,

common behavioural traits, Morbidity,

Actuarial, Epidemiology or Clinical Trial

outcomes - along with numerous other

shared events, common characteristics or

other natural factors and features.....

Geo-demographics - “Big Data”

GIS Mapping and Spatial Analysis

• A Geographic Information System (GIS) integrates hardware, software and digital data

capture devices for acquiring, managing, analysing, distributing and displaying all forms of

geographically dependant location data – including machine generated data such as

Computer-aided Design (CAD) data from land and building surveys, Global Positioning

System (GPS) terrestrial location data - as well as all kinds of data streams - HDCCTV, aerial

and satellite image data.....

• Spatial Data Analysis is a set of techniques for analysing spatial (Geographic) location data.

The results of spatial analysis are dependent on the locations of the objects being

analysed. Software that implements spatial analysis techniques requires access to both the

locations of objects and their physical attributes.

• Spatial statistics extends traditional statistics to support the analysis of geographic data.

Spatial Data Analysis provides techniques to describe the distribution of data in the

geographic space (descriptive spatial statistics), analyse the spatial patterns of the data

(spatial pattern or cluster analysis), identify and measure spatial relationships (spatial

regression), and create a surface from sampled data (spatial interpolation, usually categorized

as geo-statistics).

• The results of spatial data analysis are largely dependent upon the type, quantity,

distribution and data quality of the spatial objects under analysis.

GIS MAPPING and SPATIAL DATA ANALYSIS

• A Geographic Information System (GIS) integrates hardware, software, and data capture devices for acquiring, managing, analysing, distributing and displaying all forms of geographically dependant location data – including machine generated data such as Computer-aided Design (CAD) data from land and building surveys, Global Positioning System (GPS) terrestrial location data - as well as all kinds of aerial and satellite image data.....

Temporal Wave – 4D Geospatial Analytics

• The Temporal Wave is a novel and innovative method for Visual Modelling and Exploration

of Geospatial “Big Data” - simultaneously within a Time (history) and Space (geographic)

context. The problems encountered in exploring and analysing vast volumes of spatial–

temporal information in today's data-rich landscape – are becoming increasingly difficult to

manage effectively. In order to overcome the problem of data volume and scale in a Time

(history) and Space (location) context requires not only traditional location–space and

attribute–space analysis common in GIS Mapping and Spatial Analysis - but now with the

additional dimension of time–space analysis. The Temporal Wave supports a new method

of Visual Exploration for Geospatial (location) data within a Temporal (timeline) context.


(timeline) data along with data visualisation techniques - thus improving accessibility,

exploration and analysis of the huge amounts of geo-spatial data used to support geo-

visual “Big Data” analytics. The temporal wave combines the strengths of both linear

timeline and cyclical wave-form analysis – and is able to represent data both within a Time

(history) and Space (geographic) context simultaneously – and even at different levels of

granularity. Linear and cyclic trends in space-time data may be represented in combination

with other graphic representations typical for location–space and attribute–space data-

types. The Temporal Wave can be used in roles as a time–space data reference system,

as a time–space continuum representation tool, and as time–space interaction tool.

Geo-Demographic Profile Data GEODEMOGRAPHIC INFORMATION – PEOPLE and PLACES

Age Dwelling Location / Postcode

Income Dwelling Owner / Occupier Status

Education Dwelling Number-of-rooms

Social Status Dwelling Type

Marital Status Financial Status

Gender / Sexual Preference Politically Active Indicator

Vulnerable / At Risk Indicator Security / Threat Indicator

Physical / Mental Health Status Security Vetting / Criminal Record Indicator

Immigration Status Profession / Occupation

Home / First language Professional Training / Qualifications

Race / ethnicity / country of origin Employment Status

Household structure and family members Employer SIC

Leisure Activities / Destinations Place of work / commuting journey

Mode of travel to / from Leisure Activities Mode of travel to / from work

Temporal Wave – 4D Geospatial Analytics

• "Big Data” Analytics – Profiling, Clustering and 4D Geospatial Analysis •

• The profiling and analysis of large aggregated datasets in order to determine a ‘natural’

structure of data relationships or groupings, is an important starting point forming the

basis of many mapping, statistical and analytic applications. Cluster analysis of implicit

similarities - such as time-series demographic or geographic distribution - is a critical

technique where no prior assumptions are made concerning the number or type of

groups that may be found, or their relationships, hierarchies or internal data structures.

Geospatial and demographic techniques are frequently used in order to profile and

segment populations by ‘natural’ groupings. Shared characteristics or common factors

such as Behaviour / Propensity or Epidemiology, Clinical, Morbidity and Actuarial

outcomes – allow us to discover and explore previously unknown, unrecognised or

concealed insights, patterns, trends or data relationships. "Big Data" sources include: -

– SCADA and Environmental Control Data from Smart Buildings

– Vehicle Telemetry Data from Passenger and Transport Vehicles

– Market Data Streams – Financial, Energy and Commodities Markets

– Geospatial Exploration / Production Data created in from Surveys and Images

– Machine-generated / Automatically-captured Biomedical and Scientific Data Sets

4D Geospatial Analytics – London Timeline

4D Geospatial Analytics – London Timeline

• How did London evolve from its creation as a Roman city in 43AD into the crowded, chaotic cosmopolitan megacity we see today? The London Evolution Animation takes a holistic view of what has been constructed in the capital over different historical periods – what has been lost, what saved and what protected.

• Greater London covers 600 square miles. Up until the 17th century, however, the capital city was crammed largely into a single square mile which today is marked by the skyscrapers which are a feature of the financial district of the City.

• This visualisation, originally created for the Almost Lost exhibition by the Bartlett Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis (CASA), explores the historic evolution of the city by plotting a timeline of the development of the road network - along with documented buildings and other features – through 4D geospatial analysis of a vast number of diverse geographic, archaeological and historic data sets.

• Unlike other historical cities such as Athens or Rome, with an obvious patchwork of districts from different periods, London's individual structures scheduled sites and listed buildings are in many cases constructed gradually by parts assembled during different periods. Researchers who have tried previously to locate and document archaeological structures and research historic references will know that these features, when plotted, appear scrambled up like pieces of different jigsaw puzzles – all scattered across the contemporary London cityscape.

History of Digital Epidemiology

• Doctor John Snow (15 March 1813 – 16

June 1858) was an English physician and a

leading figure in the adoption of anaesthesia

and medical hygiene. John Snow is largely

credited with sparking and pursuing a total

transformation in Public Health and epidemic

disease management and is considered one

of the fathers of modern epidemiology in part

because of his work in tracing the source of

a cholera outbreak in Soho, London, in 1854.

• John Snows’ investigation and findings into

the Broad Street cholera outbreak - which

occurred in 1854 near Broad Street in the

London district of Soho in England - inspired

fundamental changes in both the clean and

waste water systems of London, which led to

further similar changes in other cities, and a

significant improvement in understanding of

Public Health around the whole of the world.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anaesthesia

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hygiene

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epidemiology

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1854_Broad_Street_cholera_outbreak


• The Broad Street cholera outbreak of

1854 was a major cholera epidemic or

severe outbreak of cholera which

occurred in 1854 near Broad Street in

the London district of Soho in England .

• This cholera outbreak is best known for

statistical analysis and study of the

epidemic by the physician John Snow

and his discovery that cholera is spread

by contaminated water. This knowledge

drove improvement in Public Health with

mass construction of sanitation facilities

from the middle of the19th century.

• Later, the term "focus of infection" would

be used to describe factors such as the

Broad Street pump – where Social and

Environmental conditions may result in

the outbreak of local infectious diseases.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/London

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soho

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/England

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Snow_(physician)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Snow_(physician)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cholera

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Focus_of_infection

History of Digital Epidemiology • It was the study of

cholera epidemics, particularly in Victorian England during the middle of the 19th century, which laid the foundation for epidemiology - the applied observation and surveillance of epidemics and the statistical analysis of public health data.

• This discovery came at a time when the miasma theory of disease transmission by noxious “foul air” prevailed in the medical community.


Modern epidemiology has its origin with the study of Cholera

Broad Street cholera outbreak of 1854


Modern epidemiology has its origin with the study of Cholera.

• It was the study of cholera epidemics, particularly in Victorian England

during the middle of the 19th century, that laid the foundation for the science

of epidemiology - the applied observation and surveillance of epidemics and

the statistical analysis of public health data. It was during a time when the

miasma theory of disease transmission prevailed in the medical community.

• John Snow is largely credited with sparking and pursuing a transformation in

Public Health and epidemic disease management from the extant paradigm

in which communicable illnesses were thought to have been carried by

bad, malodorous airs, or "miasmas“ - towards a new paradigm which would

begin to recognize that virulent contagious and infectious diseases are

communicated by various other means – such as water being polluted by

human sewage. This new approach to disease management recognised that

contagious diseases were either directly communicable through contact with

infected individuals - or via vectors of infection (water, in the case of cholera)

which are susceptible to contamination by viral and bacterial agents.

History of Digital Epidemiology • This map is John Snow’s

famous plot of the 1854 Broad Street Cholera Outbreak in London. By plotting epidemic data on a map like this, John Snow was able to identify that the outbreak was centred on a specific water pump.

• Interviews confirmed that outlying cases were from people who would regularly walk past the pump and take a drink. He removed the handle off the water pump and the outbreak ended almost overnight.

• The cause of cholera (bacteria Vibria cholerae) was unknown at the time, and Snow’s important work with cholera in London during the 1850s is considered the beginning of modern epidemiology. Some have even gone so far as to describe Snow’s Broad Street Map as the world’s first GIS.


Broad Street cholera outbreak of 1854

Clinical Risk Types

Clinical Risk Types

Clinical Risk Group

Employee

Patient

B

A

Human Risk Process

Risk

D

Morbidity Risk Types

Morbidity Risk Group

C

Legal Risk

F

3rd Party Risk

G

C

Technology Risk

Trauma Risk

E

Morbidity Risk

H E

J

G

A

I D

Immunological System Risk

Sponsorship

Stakeholders Disease

Risk

Shock Risk

Cardiovascular System Risk

Pulmonary System Risk

Toxicity Risk

Organ Failure Risk

- Airways

- Conscious

- Bleeding

Triage Risk

- Performance

- Finance

- Standards

Compliance Risk

H

Patient Risk

Neurological System Risk

F

B

Predation Risk

Risk Complexity Map

• Case Study • Pandemics

• Pandemics - during a pandemic episode, such as the recent Ebola outbreak, current

policies emphasise the need to ground decision-making on empiric evidence. This section

studies the tension that remains in decision-making processes when their is a sudden and

unpredictable change of course in an outbreak – or when key evidence is weak or ‘silent’.

• The current focus in epidemiology is on the ‘known unknowns’ - factors with which we are

familiar in the pandemic risk assessment processes. These risk processes cover, for

example, monitoring the course of the pandemic, estimating the most affected age groups,

and assessing population-level clinical and pharmaceutical interventions. This section

looks for the ‘unknown unknowns’ - factors with a lack of, or silence, of evidence, of which

we have only limited or weak understanding in the pandemic risk assessment processes.

• Pandemic risk assessment shows, that any developing, new and emerging or sudden and

unpredictable change in the pandemic situation does not accumulate a robust body of

evidence for decision making. These uncertainties may be conceptualised as ‘unknown

unknowns’, or “silent evidence”. Historical and archaeological pandemic studies indicate

that there may well have been evidence that was not discovered, known or recognised.

This section looks at a new method to discover “silent evidence” - unknown factors - that

affect pandemic risk assessment - by focusing on the tension under pressure that impacts

upon the actions of key decision-makers in the pandemic risk decision-making process.

Antonine Plague (Smallpox ) AD 165-180

Pandemic Black Swan Events Black Swan Pandemic Type / Location Impact Date

Malaria For the entirety of human history,

Malaria has been a pathogen

The Malaria pathogen kills more

humans than any other disease 20 kya – present

Smallpox (Antonine Plague) Smallpox Roman Empire / Italy Smallpox is the 2nd worst killer 165-180

Black Death (Plague of Justinian) Bubonic Plague – Roman Empire 50 million people died 6th century

Black Death (Late Middle Ages) Bubonic Plague – Europe 75 to 200 million people died 1340–1400

Smallpox Amazonian Basin Indians 90% Amazonian Indians died 16th century

Tuberculosis Western Europe, 18th - 19th c 900 deaths per 100,000 pop. 18th - 19th c

Syphilis Global pandemic – invariably fatal 10% of Victorian men carriers 19th century

1st Cholera Pandemic Global pandemic Started in the Bay of Bengal 1817-1823

2nd Cholera Pandemic Global pandemic (arrived in London in 1832) 1826-1837

Spanish Flu Global pandemic 50 million people died 1918

Smallpox Global pandemic 300 million people died in 20th c Eliminated 20th c

Poliomyelitis Global pandemic Contracted by up to 500,000

persons per year 1950’s/1960’s 1950’s -1960’s

AIDS Global pandemic – mostly fatal 10% Sub-Saharans are carriers Late 20th century

Ebola West African epidemic – 50% fatal Sub-Saharan Africa epicentre Late 20th century

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pathogen

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antonine_Plague



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roman_Empire

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Italy

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plague_of_Justinian

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Late_Middle_Ages

http://www.sciencemuseum.org.uk/broughttolife/themes/publichealth/sti.aspx


• Pandemics - during a pandemic episode, such as the recent Ebola outbreak, current

policies emphasise the need to ground decision-making on empiric evidence. This section

studies the tension that remains in decision-making processes when their is a sudden and

unpredictable change of course in an outbreak – or when key evidence is weak or ‘silent’.

• The current focus in epidemiology is on the ‘known unknowns’ - factors with which we are

familiar in the pandemic risk assessment processes. These risk processes cover, for

example, monitoring the course of the pandemic, estimating the most affected age groups,

and assessing population-level clinical and pharmaceutical interventions. This section

looks for the ‘unknown unknowns’ - factors with a lack of, or silence, of evidence, of which

we have only limited or weak understanding in the pandemic risk assessment processes.

• Pandemic risk assessment shows, that any developing, new and emerging or sudden and

unpredictable change in the pandemic situation does not accumulate a robust body of

evidence for decision making. These uncertainties may be conceptualised as ‘unknown

unknowns’, or “silent evidence”. Historical and archaeological pandemic studies indicate

that there may well have been evidence that was not discovered, known or recognised.

This section looks at a new method to discover “silent evidence” - unknown factors - that

affect pandemic risk assessment - by focusing on the tension under pressure that impacts

upon the actions of key decision-makers in the pandemic risk decision-making process.

Antonine Plague (Smallpox ) AD 165-180

Pandemic Black Swan Events Black Swan Pandemic Type / Location Impact Date

Malaria For the entirety of human history,

Malaria has been a pathogen

The Malaria pathogen kills more

humans than any other disease 20 kya – present

Smallpox (Antonine Plague) Smallpox Roman Empire / Italy Smallpox is the 2nd worst killer 165-180

Black Death (Plague of Justinian) Bubonic Plague – Roman Empire 50 million people died 6th century

Black Death (Late Middle Ages) Bubonic Plague – Europe 75 to 200 million people died 1340–1400

Smallpox Amazonian Basin Indians 90% Amazonian Indians died 16th century

Tuberculosis Western Europe, 18th - 19th c 900 deaths per 100,000 pop. 18th - 19th c

Syphilis Global pandemic – invariably fatal 10% of Victorian men carriers 19th century

1st Cholera Pandemic Global pandemic Started in the Bay of Bengal 1817-1823

2nd Cholera Pandemic Global pandemic (arrived in London in 1832) 1826-1837

Spanish Flu Global pandemic 50 million people died 1918

Smallpox Global pandemic 300 million people died in 20th c Eliminated 20th c

Poliomyelitis Global pandemic Contracted by up to 500,000

persons per year 1950’s/1960’s 1950’s -1960’s

AIDS Global pandemic – mostly fatal 10% Sub-Saharans are carriers Late 20th century

Ebola West African epidemic – 50% fatal Sub-Saharan Africa epicentre Late 20th century










For the entirety of human history, Malaria has been the most lethal pathogen to attack man

Pandemic Black Swan Event Types

Type Force Epidemiology Black Swan Event

1 Malaria Parasitic

Biological

Disease

The Malaria pathogen has killed more humans than any other disease. Human

malaria most likely originated in Africa and has coevolved along with its hosts,

mosquitoes and non-human primates. The first evidence of malaria parasites

was found in mosquitoes preserved in amber from the Palaeogene period that

are approximately 30 million years old. Malaria may have been a human

pathogen for the entire history of the species. Humans may have originally

caught Plasmodium falciparum from gorillas. About 10,000 years ago, a period

which coincides with the development of agriculture (Neolithic revolution) -

malaria started having a major impact on human survival. A consequence was

natural selection for sickle-cell disease, thalassaemias, glucose-6-phosphate

dehydrogenase deficiency, ovalocytosis, elliptocytosis and loss of the Gerbich

antigen (glycophorin C) and the Duffy antigen on erythrocytes because such

blood disorders confer a selective advantage against malaria infection (balancing

selection). The first known description of malaria dates back 4000 years to 2700

B.C. China where ancient writings refer to symptoms now commonly associated

with malaria. Early malaria treatments were first developed in China from

Quinghao plant, which contains the active ingredient artemisinin, re-discovered

and still used in anti-malaria drugs today. Largely overlooked by researchers is

the role of disease and epidemics in the fall of Rome. Three major types of

inherited genetic resistance to malaria (sickle-cell disease, thalassaemias, and

glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase deficiency) were all present in the

Mediterranean world 2,000 years ago, at the time of the Roman Empire.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coevolution

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mosquito

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Primate

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amber

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paleogene


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plasmodium_falciparum

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plasmodium_falciparum

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gorilla

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neolithic_revolution

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_selection

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sickle-cell_disease



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thalassaemias

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glucose-6-phosphate_dehydrogenase_deficiency








http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovalocytosis

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elliptocytosis

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glycophorin_C



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duffy_antigen_system

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_blood_cells

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blood_disorders

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Balancing_selection

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Balancing_selection

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genetic_resistance_to_malaria

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mediterranean




2 Smallpox Viral

Biological

Disease

The history of smallpox holds a unique place in medical history. One of the

deadliest viral diseases known to man, it is the first disease to be treated by

vaccination - and also the only disease to have been eradicated from the

face of the earth by vaccination. Smallpox plagued human populations for

thousands of years. Researchers who examined the mummy of Egyptian

pharaoh Ramses V (died 1157 BCE) observed scarring similar to that from

smallpox on his remains. Ancient Sanskrit medical texts, dating from about

1500 BCE, describe a smallpox-like illness. Smallpox was most likely

present in Europe by about 300 CE. – although there are no unequivocal

records of smallpox in Europe before the 6th century CE. It has been

suggested that it was a major component of the Plague of Athens that

occurred in 430 BCE, during the Peloponnesian Wars, and was described

by Thucydides. A recent analysis of the description of clinical features

provided by Galen during the Antonine Plague that swept through the

Roman Empire and Italy in 165–180, indicates that the probable cause was

smallpox. In 1796, after noting Smallpox immunity amongst milkmaids –

Edward Jenner carried out his now famous experiment on eight-year-old

James Phipps, using Cow Pox as a vaccine to confer immunity to Smallpox.

Some estimates indicate that 20th century worldwide deaths from smallpox

numbered more than 300 million. The last known case of wild smallpox

occurred in Somalia in 1977 – until recent outbreaks in Pakistan and Syria.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plague_of_Athens

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peloponnesian_War

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thucydides

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Galen








3 Bubonic

Plague

Bacterial

Biological

Disease

The Bubonic Plague – or Black Death – was one of the most devastating

pandemics in human history, killing an estimated 75 to 200 million people

and peaking in Europe in the years 1348–50 CE. The Bubonic Plague is a

bacterial disease – spread by fleas carried by Asian Black Rats - which

originated in or near China and then travelled to Italy, overland along the Silk

Road, or by sea along the Silk Route. From Italy the Black Death spread

onwards through other European countries. Research published in 2002

suggests that the Black Death began in the spring of 1346 in the Russian

steppe region, where a plague reservoir stretched from the north-western

shore of the Caspian Sea into southern Russia. Although there were

several competing theories as to the etiology of the Black Death, analysis of

DNA from victims in northern and southern Europe published in 2010 and

2011 indicates that the pathogen responsible was the Yersinia pestis

bacterium, possibly causing several forms of plague. The first recorded

epidemic ravaged the Byzantine Empire during the sixth century, and was

named the Plague of Justinian after emperor Justinian I, who was infected

but survived through extensive treatment. The epidemic is estimated to have

killed approximately 50 million people in the Roman Empire alone. During

the Late Middle Ages (1340–1400) Europe experienced the most deadly

disease outbreak in history when the Black Death, the infamous pandemic

of bubonic plague, peaked in 1347, killing one third of the human population.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pandemic

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_world

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_Era

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Etiology_(medicine)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yersinia_pestis



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plague_(disease)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Byzantine_Empire


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Justinian_I




4 Syphilis Bacterial

Biological

Disease

Syphilis - the exact origin of syphilis is unknown. There are two primary

hypotheses: one proposes that syphilis was carried from the Americas to

Europe by the crew of Christopher Columbus, the other proposes that

syphilis previously existed in Europe but went unrecognized. These are

referred to as the "Columbian" and "pre-Columbian" hypotheses. In late 2011

newly published evidence suggested that the Columbian hypothesis is valid.

The appearance of syphilis in Europe at the end of the 1400s heralded

decades of death as the disease raged across the continent. The first

evidence of an outbreak of syphilis in Europe were recorded in 1494/1495

in Naples, Italy, during a French invasion. First spread by returning French

troops, the disease was known as “French disease”, and it was not until

1530 that the term "syphilis" was first applied by the Italian physician and

poet Girolamo Fracastoro. By the 1800s it had become endemic, carried by

as many as 10% of men in some areas - in late Victorian London this may

have been as high as 20%. Invariably fatal, associated with extramarital sex

and prostitution, syphilis was accompanied by enormous social stigma. The

secretive nature of syphilis helped it spread - disgrace was such that many

sufferers hid their symptoms, while others carrying the latent form of the

disease were unaware they even had it. Treponema pallidum, the syphilis

causal organism, was first identified by Fritz Schaudinn and Erich Hoffmann

in 1905. The first effective treatment (Salvarsan) was developed in 1910

by Paul Ehrlich which was followed by the introduction of penicillin in 1943.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Syphilis

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Americas

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christopher_Columbus


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Naples

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Girolamo_Fracastoro



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fritz_Schaudinn

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fritz_Schaudinn

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Erich_Hoffmann

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salvarsan

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Ehrlich

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Penicillin



5 Tuberculosis Bacterial

Biological

Disease

Tuberculosis - the evolutionary origins of the Mycobacterium tuberculosis

indicates that the most recent common ancestor was a human-specific

pathogen, which encountered an evolutionary bottleneck leading to

diversification. Analysis of mycobacterial interspersed repetitive units has

allowed dating of this evolutionary bottleneck to approximately 40,000 years

ago, which corresponds to the period subsequent to the expansion of Homo

sapiens out of Africa. This analysis of mycobacterial interspersed repetitive

units also dated the Mycobacterium bovis lineage as dispersing some 6,000

years ago. Tuberculosis existed 15,000 to 20,000 years ago, and has been

found in human remains from ancient Egypt, India, and China. Human

bones from the Neolithic show the presence of the bacteria, which may be

linked to early farming and animal domestication. Evidence of tubercular

decay has been found in the spines of Egyptian mummies, and TB was

common both in ancient Greece and Imperial Rome. Tuberculosis reached

its peak the 18th century in Western Europe with a prevalence as high as

900 deaths per 100,000 - due to malnutrition and overcrowded housing with

poor ventilation and sanitation. Although relatively little is known about its

frequency before the 19th century, the incidence of Scrofula (consumption)

“the captain of all men of death” is thought to have peaked between the end

of the 18th century and the end of the 19th century. With advent of HIV there

has been a dramatic resurgence of tuberculosis with more than 8 million

new cases reported each year worldwide and more than 2 million deaths.




6 Cholera Bacterial

Biological

Disease

Cholera is a severe infection in the small intestine caused by the bacterium

vibrio cholerae, contracted by drinking water or eating food contaminated

with the bacterium. Cholera symptoms include profuse watery diarrhoea and

vomiting. The primary danger posed by cholera is severe dehydration, which

can lead to rapid death. Cholera can now be treated with re-hydration and

prevented by vaccination. Cholera outbreaks in recorded history have

indeed been explosive and the global proliferation of the disease is seen by

most scholars to have occurred in six separate pandemics, with the seventh

pandemic still rampant in many developing countries around the world. The

first recorded instance of cholera was described in 1563 in an Indian medical

report. In modern times, the story of the disease begins in 1817 when it

spread from its ancient homeland of the Ganges Delta in the bay of Bengal

in North East India - to the rest of the world. The first cholera pandemic

raged from 1817-1823, the second from 1826-1837 The disease reached

Britain during October 1831 - and finally arrived in London in 1832 (13,000

deaths) with subsequent major outbreaks in 1841, 1848 (21,000 deaths)

1854 (15,000 deaths) and 1866. Surgeon John Snow – by studying the

outbreak cantered around the Broad Street well in 1854 – traced the source

of cholera to drinking water which was contaminated by infected human

faeces – ending the “miasma” or “bad air” theory of cholera transmission.



7 Poliomyelitis Viral

Biological

Disease

The history of poliomyelitis (polio) infections extends into prehistory.

Ancient Egyptian paintings and carvings depict otherwise healthy people

with withered limbs, and children walking with canes at a young age.[3] It is

theorized that the Roman Emperor Claudius was stricken as a child, and this

caused him to walk with a limp for the rest of his life. Perhaps the earliest

recorded case of poliomyelitis is that of Sir Walter Scott. At the time, polio

was not known to medicine. In 1773 Scott was said to have developed "a

severe teething fever which deprived him of the power of his right leg." The

symptoms of poliomyelitis have been described as: Dental Paralysis,

Infantile Spinal Paralysis, Essential Paralysis of Children, Regressive

Paralysis, Myelitis of the Anterior Horns and Paralysis of the Morning.

In 1789 the first clinical description of poliomyelitis was provided by the

British physician Michael Underwood as "a debility of the lower extremities”.

Although major polio epidemics were unknown before the 20th century, the

disease has caused paralysis and death for much of human history. Over

millennia, polio survived quietly as an endemic pathogen until the 1880s

when major epidemics began to occur in Europe; soon after, widespread

epidemics appeared in the United States. By 1910, frequent epidemics

became regular events throughout the developed world, primarily in cities

during the summer months. At its peak in the 1940s and 1950s, polio would

maim, paralyse or kill over half a million people worldwide every year

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prehistory

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ancient_Egypt

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roman_Emperor

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Claudius

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sir_Walter_Scott

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Teething

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epidemic

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paralysis

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennia

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Endemic_(epidemiology)



8 Typhus Bacterial

Biological

Disease

Typhoid fever (jail fever) is an acute illness associated with a high fever that

is most often caused by the Salmonella typhi bacteria. Typhoid may also be

caused by Salmonella paratyphi, a related bacterium that usually leads to a

less severe illness. The bacteria are spread via deposition in water or food

by a human carrier. An estimated 16–33 million cases of typhoid fever occur

annually. Its incidence is highest in children and young adults between 5 and

19 years old. These cases as of 2010 caused about 190,000 deaths up from

137,000 in 1990. Historically, in the pre-antibiotic era, the case fatality rate of

typhoid fever was 10-20%. Today, with prompt treatment, it is less than 1%.

9 Dysentery Bacterial /

Parasitic

Biological

Disease

Dysentery (the Flux or the bloody flux) is a form of gastroenteritis – a type

inflammatory disorder of the intestine, especially of the colon, resulting in

severe diarrhea containing blood and mucus in the feces accompanied by

fever, abdominal pain and rectal tenesmus (feeling incomplete defecation),

caused by any kind of gastric infection. Conservative estimates suggest

that 90 million cases of Bacterial Dysentery (Shigellosis) are contracted

annually, killing at least 100,000. Amoebic Dysentery (Amebiasis) infects

some 50 million people each year, with over 50,000 cases resulting in death.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Case_fatality_rate

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gastroenteritis

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inflammation

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intestine

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colon_(anatomy)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diarrhea

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blood

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mucus

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Feces

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fever

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abdominal_pain

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rectal_tenesmus

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rectal_tenesmus

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Infection



10 Spanish

Flu

Viral

Biological

Disease

In the United States, the Spanish Flu was first observed in Haskell County,

Kansas, in January 1918, prompting a local doctor, Loring Miner to warn the

U.S. Public Health Service's academic journal. On 4th March 1918, army cook

Albert Gitchell reported sick at Fort Riley, Kansas. A week later on 11th March

1918, over 100 soldiers were in hospital and the Spanish Flu virus had now

reached Queens New York. Within days, 522 men had reported sick at the

army camp. In August 1918, a more virulent strain appeared simultaneously

in Brest, Brittany-France, in Freetown, Sierra Leone, and in the U.S, in Boston,

Massachusetts. It is estimated that in 1918, between 20-40% of the worlds

population became infected by Spanish Flu - with 50 million deaths globally.

11 HIV / AIDS Viral

Biological

Disease

AIDS was first reported in America in 1981 – and provoked reactions which

echoed those associated with syphilis for so long. Many of the earliest cases

were among homosexual men - creating a climate of prejudice and moral

panic. Fear of catching this new and terrifying disease was also widespread

among the public. The observed time-lag between contracting HIV and the

onset of AIDS, coupled with new drug treatments, changed perceptions.

Increasingly it was seen as a chronic but manageable disease. The global

story was very different - by the mid-1980s it became clear that the virus had

spread, largely unnoticed, throughout the rest of the world. The nature of this

global pandemic varies from region to region, with poorer areas hit hardest. In

parts of sub-Saharan Africa nearly 1 in 10 adults carries the virus - a statistic

which is reminiscent of the spread of syphilis in parts of Europe in the 1800s.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haskell_County,_Kansas

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haskell_County,_Kansas

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fort_Riley,_Kansas

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Queens

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brest,_France

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freetown

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boston

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boston






12 Ebola Haemorrhagic

Viral

Biological

Disease

Ebola is a highly lethal Haemorrhagic Viral Biological Disease, which has

caused at least 16 confirmed outbreaks in Africa between 1976 and 2014.

Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) is found in wild great apes and kills 50% to 90% of

humans infected - making it one of the deadliest diseases known to man. It is

so dangerous that it is considered to be a potential Grade A bioterrorism agent

– on a par with anthrax, smallpox, and bubonic plague. The current outbreak

of EVD has seen confirmed cases in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone,

countries in an area of West Africa where the disease has not previously

occurred. There were also a handful of suspected cases in neighbouring Mali,

but these patients were found to have contracted other diseases

For each epidemic, transmission was quantified in different settings (illness in

the community, hospitalization, and traditional burial) and predictive analytics

simulated various epidemic scenarios to explore the impact of medical control

interventions on an emerging epidemic. A key medical parameter was the

rapid institution of control measures. For both epidemic profiles identified,

increasing the rate of hospitalization reduced the predicted epidemic size.

Over 4000 suspected cases of EVD have been recorded, with the majority of

them in Guinea. The current outbreak has currently resulted in over 2000

deaths. These figures will continue to rise as more patients die and as test

results confirm that they were infected with Ebola.


Ebola is a highly lethal Haemorrhagic Viral Biological Disease, which has

caused at least 16 confirmed outbreaks in Africa between 1976 and 2014.



13 Future

Bacterial

Pandemic

Infections

Bacterial

Biological

Disease

Bacteria were most likely the real killers in the 1918 Flu Pandemic - the vast

majority of deaths in the 1918–1919 influenza pandemic resulted as a result of

secondary bacterial pneumonia, caused by common upper respiratory-tract

bacteria. Less substantial data from the subsequent 1957 and 1968 Flu

pandemics are consistent with these findings. If severe pandemic influenza is

largely a problem of viral-bacterial co-pathogenesis, pandemic planning needs

to go beyond addressing the viral cause alone (influenza vaccines and

antiviral drugs). The diagnosis, prophylaxis, treatment and prevention of

secondary bacterial pneumonia - as well as stockpiling of antibiotics and

bacterial vaccines – should be high priorities for future pandemic planning.

14 Future

Viral

Pandemic

infections

Viral

Biological

Disease

What was Learned from Reconstructing the 1918 Spanish Flu Virus

Comparing pandemic H1N1 influenza viruses at the molecular level yields key

insights into pathogenesis – the way animal viruses mutate to cross species.

The availability of these two H1N1 virus genomes separated by over 90 years,

provided an unparalleled opportunity to study and recognise genetic properties

associated with virulent pandemic viruses - allowing for a comprehensive

assessment of emerging influenza viruses with human pandemic potential.

There are only four to six mutations required within the first three days of viral

infection in a new human host, to change an animal virus to become highly

virulent and infectious to human beings. Candidate viral gene pools for future

possible Human Pandemics include Anthrax, Lassa Fever, Rift Valley Fever,

EVD, SARS, MIRS, H1N1 Swine Flu (2009) and H7N9 Avian / Bat Flu (2013).

http://www.microbemagazine.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=2902:what-we-learned-from-reconstructing-the-1918-influenza-pandemic-virus&catid=675:featured&Itemid=896

//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/44/Krakatoa_eruption_2008.jpg

Geo-thermal Black Swan Event Types

Type Force Extinction-level Black Swan Event

1 Geo-

thermal

Process

Thermal

Energy

Plate Tectonics / Continental Drift – Continental Landmass aggregation at either

the Equator or the Poles (Rodinia, Gondwanaland, Pangea etc.) – events linked

with “Snowball Earth” “Global Dessert” and “Stagnant Sea” Extinction Events.

Divergent Plate Boundaries – occur at mid-oceanic ridges, where two tectonic

plates diverge from one another to create new ocean floor. Convergent Plate

Boundaries - Subduction zones are places where two plates, usually an oceanic

plate and a continental plate, collide. In this case, the oceanic plate dives under the

continental plate forming a deep ocean trench just offshore, and Andesitic volcanic

mountain chains, usually about 90-120 kilometres inland on the continental plate

2 Geo-

thermal

Process

Thermal

Energy

Volcanic Plumes (Hot Spots) - 100 million years ago, a plume of hot rock from

the Earth’s mantle burst through the crust in what is today called Siberia. Those

eruptions raged for centuries, spewing out over a quarter million cubic miles of

basalt floods – the Siberian Traps. Then 65 million years ago, another plume of

hot rock from the Earth’s mantle burst through the crust in what is now India.

Eruptions lasted for centuries, spewing out well over a quarter million cubic miles

of lava flows – the Deccan Traps. Along with the Yucatan Peninsula Meteorite

Impact, many Geologists believe these to be a contributory factor – and a few

believe these volcanic episode to be the major cause of Extinction Events, such as

K-T, which killed the dinosaurs 65 million years ago. Another Volcanic Plume

erupted beneath Iceland – causing America (Palisade Basalts) and Europe (Giants

Causeway) to divide, forming the Atlantic Ocean. The next candidate for flood-

basalt volcanism is Yellowstone Park – its magma chamber is filling up right now.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mid-oceanic_ridges



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tectonic_plate


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Subduction_zones



Volcanic Events in Antarctic Ice Cores

Volcanic Event Years of

Eruption

Years in Ice

Core

Depth in Ice

Core (m)

VEI Impact

Pinatubo 1991 1992 – 1993 0.35–0.45 6 (area evacuated by USAF)

Krakatoa 1883 1884 – 1885 16.83 6 Pyroclastic flow / Tsunami

Coseguina 1835 1835 – 1836 20.48

Tambora 1815 1816 – 1818 21.45 7 "Year Without a Summer"

Thompson Island

(South Atlantic)

1809 1809 – 1811 21.64 Thompson Island completely

disappeared above sea level

Kuwae 1453 1453 – 1455 33.58

(Unknown) 1284 1284 – 1286 46.54

Rinjani, Lombok 1257 – 1258 1259 – 1261 48.81 7 Little Ice Age, Europe

Volcanic Cooling Events in Antarctic Ice Cores - Volcanic hotspots erupt over time with regular

periodically – producing the mid-ocean island chains such as Hawaii and Galapagos. Thermal and

debris shocks along with dust clouds that reach far into the atmosphere, releasing nitrous and sulphuric

gases, carbon dioxide and acid rains – can cause massive climate change around the globe. Flood

basalt volcanic episodes may be causes of climatic and biological change - geologists believe this a

contributory factor for the P-T Boundary Event, which killed off 90% of all the living species on Earth.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Year_Without_a_Summer

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rinjani

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lombok

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Ice_Age

Volcanic Hotspot Black Swan Events

Black Swan Events Location / Volcanic System VEI Impact Date

Eyjafjallajökull, Iceland Icelandic Hotspot, Mid-Atlantic Ridge 4 Air Travel in North Europe 2010

Mount Pinatubo Luzon Volcanic Arc, Philippine Islands 6 (area evacuated by USAF) 1991

Mount St. Helens, United States Cascade Volcanic Arc 5 (low population / impact) 1980

Krakatoa Sunda Arc, Indonesia 6 Pyroclastic flow / Tsunami 1883

Mount Tambora, Indonesia Lesser Sunda Islands 7 "Year Without a Summer" 1815

Kolumbo eruption, Santorini South Aegean Volcanic Arc, Greece 6 Pyroclastic flow / Tsunami 1650

Rinjani, Lombok Lesser Sunda Islands 7 Little Ice Age, Europe 1257 / 1258

Ilopango, El Salvador Central America Volcanic Arc 6 End of Mayan Culture 536

Mount Vesuvius, Italy Eurasian/African Plate Boundary 5 Herculaenum, Pompei 79 AD

Minoan eruption at Akrotiri Santorini (Thera), Greece 7 End of Minoan Culture 1610 BC

Yellowstone Caldera Yellowstone hotspot, United States 8 Pleistocene, Quaternary 640 ka

Henry's Fork Caldera Yellowstone hotspot, United States 7 Pleistocene, Quaternary 1.3 Ma

Island Park Caldera Yellowstone hotspot, United States 8 Pleistocene, Quaternary 2.1 Ma

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eyjafjallaj%C3%B6kull

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iceland

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Pinatubo

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luzon

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_St._Helens

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cascade_Volcanic_Arc

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Krakatoa

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunda_Arc



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indonesia

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Tambora

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Tambora

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indonesia

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lesser_Sunda_Islands




http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Year_Without_a_Summer

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kolumbo_(volcano)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rinjani

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lombok





http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Ice_Age

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ilopango_(volcano)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Vesuvius

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minoan_eruption

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Akrotiri

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Santorini

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yellowstone_Caldera

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yellowstone_hotspot


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henry's_Fork_Caldera



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Island_Park_Caldera



Geo-thermal Black Swan Events


1 Geo-

thermal

Process

Thermal

Energy

Volcanic Plumes (Hot Spots) - "Hotspots" are the volcanic provinces thought

to be formed by volcanic mantle plumes – which are thought to be caused by

convection columns of hot material that rise from the core-mantle boundary. It

has been suggested that volcanic plumes are fixed in position, and that their

thermal energy causes melting at the base of the Earths’ crust. As the tectonic

plates which form the Earths’ crust moves over hot mantle plumes, the oldest

volcano in the chain is carried further away from the plume and after a while

becomes dormant. Over time - as the Earths’ crust gradually shifts in relation to

the fixed position of the mantle plume - new volcanoes erupt in a fresh position

on the chain. The Hawaiian Islands have been formed in this manner, as well as

the Snake River Plain, with the Yellowstone Caldera – that part of the North

American plate which is currently standing above the Yellowstone mantle plume.

Volcanic hotspots erupt over time with regular periodically – producing the mid-

ocean island chains such as Hawaii and Galapagos. Thermal and debris shocks

along with dust clouds that reach far into the atmosphere, releasing nitrous and

sulphuric gases, carbon dioxide and acid rains – can cause massive climate

change around the globe. Flood basalt volcanic episodes may be causes of

climatic and biological change - geologists believe this a contributory factor for

the P-T Boundary Event, which killed off 90% of all the living species on Earth.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hotspot_(geology)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mantle_plume

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hawaiian_Islands

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snake_River_Plain

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yellowstone_Caldera

Volcanic Hotspot Map

1. Azores hotspot (1) 2. Balleny hotspot (2) 3. Bowie hotspot (3) 4. Caroline hotspot (4) 5. Cobb hotspot (5) 6. Darfur hotspot (6) 7. Easter hotspot (7) 8. Eifel hotspot (8) 9. Fernando hotspot (9) 10. Galápagos hotspot (10) 11. Guadalupe hotspot (11) 12. Hawaii hotspot (12) 13. Hoggar hotspot (13) 14. Iceland hotspot (14) 15. Jan Mayen hotspot (15) 16. Juan Fernández hotspot 17. Cameroon hotspot (17) 18. Canary hotspot (18) 19. Cape Verde hotspot (19) 20. Kerguelen hotspot (20) 21. Comoros hotspot (21) 22. Lord Howe hotspot (22)

//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/19/Hotspots.jpg

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azores_hotspot

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Balleny_hotspot



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bowie_hotspot

//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caroline_hotspot

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cobb_hotspot

//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Darfur_hotspot

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Easter_hotspot

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eifel_hotspot

//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fernando_hotspot

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gal%C3%A1pagos_hotspot

//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guadalupe_hotspot

//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hawaii_hotspot

//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hoggar_hotspot



//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iceland_hotspot

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jan_Mayen_hotspot




http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Juan_Fern%C3%A1ndez_hotspot




//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cameroon_hotspot

//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canary_hotspot

//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cape_Verde_hotspot

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kerguelen_hotspot

//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comoros_hotspot

//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lord_Howe_hotspot

Volcanic Hotspot Map

23. Louisville hotspot (23) 24. Macdonald hotspot (24) 25. Marion hotspot (25) 26. Marquesas hotspot (26) 27. Meteor hotspot (27) 28. New England hotspot (28) 29. Society hotspot (38) 30. East Australia hotspot (30) 31. Pitcairn hotspot (31) 32. Raton hotspot (32) 33. Réunion hotspot (33) 34. St. Helena hotspot (34) 35. Samoa hotspot (35) 36. San Felix hotspot (36) 37. Socorro hotspot (37) 38. Tahiti hotspot (38) 39. Tasmanid hotspot (39) 40. Tibesti hotspot (40) 41. Trindade hotspot (41) 42. Tristan hotspot (42) 43. Vema hotspot (43) 44. Yellowstone hotspot (44)

//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/19/Hotspots.jpg

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Louisville_hotspot

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Macdonald_hotspot

//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marion_hotspot

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marquesas_hotspot

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meteor_hotspot

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_England_hotspot

//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Society_hotspot

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/East_Australia_hotspot

//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pitcairn_hotspot

//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Raton_hotspot

//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/R%C3%A9union_hotspot



//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/St._Helena_hotspot

//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Samoa_hotspot

//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Felix_hotspot

//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Socorro_hotspot

//commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?title=Tahiti_hotspot&action=edit&redlink=1

//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tasmanid_hotspot



//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tibesti_hotspot



//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trindade_hotspot



//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tristan_hotspot

//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vema_hotspot



//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yellowstone_hotspot

Yellowstone Caldera Map

Volcanic Hot-spots

Volcanic hotspots periodically

erupt - producing thermal and

debris shocks along with dust

clouds that reach far into the

upper atmosphere, releasing

nitrous and sulphuric gases,

carbon dioxide and acid rains -

in turn causing massive climate

change around the globe.

Yellowstone Caldera, Henry's

Fork Caldera, Island Park

Caldera and Heise Volcanic

Field all share a common

magma chamber – beneath the

Yellowstone National Park.

A future candidate for hot-spot

volcanism is quietly building up

right now – with the magma

source beneath Yellowstone

Park filling up with lava - ready

for the next super-volcano......

//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/0/0a/Yellowstone_Caldera_map2.JPG

Yellowstone Hotspot Timeline

//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/4/40/HotspotsSRP.JPG

Geo-thermal Black Swan Event Types


2 Geo-

thermal

Process

Thermal

Energy

Divergent Plate Boundaries - at the mid-oceanic ridges, two tectonic plates

diverge from one another. New oceanic crust is being formed by fluid basaltic

magma slowly cooling and solidifying. The crust is very thin at mid-oceanic

ridges due to the pull of the tectonic plates. The release of pressure due to the

thinning of the crust leads to adiabatic expansion, and the partial melting of the

mantle causing volcanism and creating new oceanic crust. Most divergent plate

boundaries are at the bottom of the oceans, therefore most volcanic activity is

submarine, forming new seafloor. Black smokers or deep sea vents are an

example of this kind of volcanic activity. Where the mid-oceanic ridge is above

sea-level, volcanic islands are formed from basalt magma, for example, Iceland.

3 Geo-

thermal

Process

Thermal

Energy

Convergent Plate Boundaries - Subduction zones are places where two

plates, usually an oceanic plate and a continental plate, collide. In this case, the

oceanic plate subducts, or submerges under the continental plate forming a

deep ocean trench just offshore. In a process called flux melting, water released

from the subducting plate lowers the melting temperature of the overlying

mantle wedge, creating magma. This magma tends to be very viscous due to its

high silica content, so often does not reach the surface and cools at depth.

When it does reach the surface, a volcano is formed. As the magma is both

viscous (silica) and gaseous (water, carbon dioxide, sulphates and nitrates) –

andesitic magma eruptions are very explosive. Typical examples for this kind of

andesitic volcano are found in the volcanoes in the Pacific Ring of Fire. (the

Rockies and the Andes), and the Mediterranean Basin (Mount Etna).





http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oceanic_crust

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adiabatic_process

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mantle_(geology)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Divergent_boundary

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Divergent_boundary

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_smoker

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iceland




http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flux_melting

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magma

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viscous

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silica

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pacific_Ring_of_Fire

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Etna

Divergent Plate Boundaries

World map showing the divergent plate boundaries (OSR – Oceanic Spreading Ridges)

//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b6/Spreading_ridges_volcanoes_map-en.svg

Divergent Plate Boundaries

Convergent Plate Boundaries

• A convergent plate boundary is where two or more tectonic plates collide with each other creating massive crustal movements. The Himalayas were formed by such a collision. Earthquakes and volcanoes are common near convergent boundaries as a result of displacement - pressure, friction, and crustal plate material melting deep in the mantle,

• These diagrams illustrates some differences between the three types of subduction zone: -

1. Continental crust moves under a continental plate. The leading edge of the continental plate margin thrusts up into a horse-shoe shaped mountain range. This forms a high plateau. The Himalayas and the Tibetan plateau are a perfect example of this.

2. Oceanic crust dives under a continental plate. A deep ocean trench forms at the coast, and an arc of mountainous volcanoes forms inland – as seen along the western edge of much of the Americas.

3. Oceanic crust dives under an oceanic plate – with crustal material melting deep in the mantle to form arc-shaped volcanic island chains.

http://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tectonic_plate

http://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/Himalayas

http://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earthquake

http://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volcano

http://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mantle_(geology)

http://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mountain_range

http://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plateau

http://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/Himalayas

http://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tibetan_plateau

http://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ocean_trench

http://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coast

http://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volcanoes

http://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/Americas

//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/83/Continental-continental_convergence_Fig21contcont.gif

//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/2/29/Active_Margin.svg

//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/0/0c/Oceanic-oceanic_convergence_Fig21oceanocean.gif

• Case Study • Earthquakes

• Earthquakes are created, for example, in orogenic (mountain building) events, when

adjacent stratigraphic units are laterally compressed and fold over one another

(thrust faulting), or when a single stratigraphic unit situated between two parallel

geological faults becomes laterally stretched and the unit in the fault zone slips down

in relation to the fault planes (normal faulting), or when either Continental or Oceanic

Plate Margins are stuck against each by the forces of friction. Under cumulative

stress, static friction forces are eventually overcome – the Plate Margins suddenly

become mobile and detached, moving relative to each other as the built-up stress is

relieved (Plate Tectonics) – releasing massive amounts of energy in the process.

• Over time stress builds up at the fault-line boundary, eventually overcoming friction

causing the adjacent stratigraphic units to “unzip” dramatically – slip and slide over,

along or away (mid-ocean ridge) from each other - releasing a sequence of energetic

tremors or waves. P-waves oscillate up-and-down, whilst S-waves oscillate from

side-to-side. The P and S waves from the Earthquake propagate rapidly through the

earth in a related and integrated series of waves - but travelling at different speeds.

The first waves to arrive at an observer of the event are vertical (up / down)

disturbances (P-waves) which are followed moments later by a horizontal (side-to-

side) disturbance (S-waves) which have increased magnitude and intensity.

Risk Example – Inter-connected Hazards

A Trigger

A

Plate Tectonics

B Factor

B

Pacific Earthquake

Warning System

Japan is an Andesitic Volcanic Island Chain on the

Asian Continental Plate 100k from the Pacific Plate

Japanese Pacific Earthquake Warning System was developed to give early warning of events

C Trigger

C


Risk Event

Risk Event

D

Related Risk Example – Pacific Earthquake Event March 11, 2011

The Asian Continental Plate slides over the Pacific Plate

Risk Event

Mitigation Factor

The Continental Plate rises 10m, displacing a 10m water

column and the whole of Japan moves 3m towards the east while the east cost of Japan falls 1m relative to sea level

Risk Event

E

P-waves travelling at 800km / hr arrive in Tokyo Earthquake Monitoring Centre

Risk Event

F

S-waves travelling at 400km / hr arrive in Tokyo Earthquake Monitoring Centre

Trigger D

Pacific Earthquake

Event – 11.03.2011

At 5.46am GMT (2.46pm in Japan) a massive

earthquake occurred, registering 9.0 on the

Richter scale – followed over the next few

days by hundreds of smaller after-shocks


Pacific Earthquake Event March 11, 2011

• Case Study • Volcanic Eruptions

• • CASE STUDY • A Pyroclastic Volcanic Eruption begins with a series of linked

and integrated events which have a common origin or source - in turn generating a

sequence of waves in ascending orders of magnitude. Pyroclastic Volcanic

Eruptions begin with a sequence of Random Events - in this case, it is a sequence

of Earthquakes somewhere deep under an Mountain Chain which is built up from

Andesitic Volcanoes – such as the Andes Mountain Chain.

• The Andes Mountains are parallel with the Pacific Oceanic Plate subduction zone –

an area where the Pacific Oceanic Plate plunges under the South American

Continental Margin. Sediment, sea water and organic remains from the Ocean floor

are carried down towards earth’s mantle and heat up as the Oceanic Plate plunges

deeper into the Earth’s Mantle. Liquids and gases released by this heating cause

the rocks in the Earth’s Mantle to melt, turning from a plastic semi-solid into a liquid.

This liquid then rises through the Earth’s crust and travels towards the surface,

collecting in pools forming Magma Chambers - before finally breaking at the surface

through and erupting as Volcanic Magma.


• When adjacent Continental and Oceanic Plates are stuck together, over time they can

periodically unzip and slide over each other – thus Tectonic Earthquakes are created

causing a sequence of tremors or waves. P-waves oscillate up-and-down, whilst S-waves

oscillate from side-to-side. The P and S waves from the Earthquake propagate rapidly

through the earth in a related and integrated series of waves - but travelling at different

speeds. The first waves to arrive at an observer of the event are vertical (up / down)

disturbances (P-waves – 800 km/hr) which are followed moments later by a horizontal

(side-to-side) disturbance (S-waves – 400 km/hr) with increased magnitude and intensity.

• P-waves travel fastest through the earth so they arrive first, as Weak Signals. The faster

P-waves are followed by slower but more dramatic and intense S-waves – Shock Waves –

Strong Signals now indicating what is about to follow. Next in the sequence is the Wild

Card Event. As the volcano erupts, its ash cloud builds up high into the atmosphere.

Finally the Black Swan Event arrives. As the volcano continues to erupt, the ash column

can no longer support its own weight. It collapses in onto itself and plunges down the

slopes of the Volcano. Surging relentlessly downhill, the catastrophic disturbance of the

Pyroclastic wave covers the landscape with layers of suffocating, burning hot ash and

destroys all life in a black cloud covering over everything that lies before it. This is, for

example, what happened in 63 AD when superheated magma beneath Vesuvius erupted

and covered Herculaneum and Pompeii with over twenty metres of rocks and ash.

• Case Study • Tsunami Events

• • CASE STUDY • A Tsunami Event consists of a sequence of linked and integrated

waves in ascending orders of magnitude which have a common origin or source – in this

case, the Random Events begin with a series of chaotic and disruptive Earthquakes

somewhere offshore in a subduction zone at a Continental and Oceanic Plate Margin.

• Earthquakes are formed as the Continental and Oceanic Plates stick together – and then

unzip, causing a sequence of random and chaotic tremors. The P and S waves from the

Earthquake propagate rapidly through the earth as a related and integrated series of

waves travelling at different speeds – the first to arrive are vertical (up / down) wave

disturbances (P-waves) - which can travel directly through the Earths crust, mantle and

core – which are followed by slower but more powerful horizontal (side-to-side) waves (S-

waves) – accompanied by further increases in wave magnitude and intensity – which can

only travel through the Earths crust and mantle, and so “bounces” around the liquid core.

• To sum up, the P and S waves from the Earthquake propagate rapidly through the earth in

a related and integrated series of wave forms travelling at different speeds – the first to

arrive are vertical (up / down) disturbances (P-waves) which are followed by a horizontal

(side-to-side) disturbance (S-waves) – with further increased magnitude and intensity.

• Case Study • Tsunami Events

• P-waves travel fastest through the earth at 800 km/hr - so they arrive first as Weak

Signals – subliminal messages. These faster P-waves are followed by slower but more

dramatic and intense S-waves at 400 km/hr – these are the Shock Waves - Strong

Signals which are now a firm indication of what is about to come. The next in the

sequence of waves is the first Ocean Wave – up to 10 m in height and 100 km in length

- which arrives at the coastline travelling at 300 km/hr. The sea initially draws rapidly

away from the coast so the sea level dramatically falls as the edge of the Tsunami

Wave withdraws water away from the shore – this is the final warning, the Wild Card

Event – this is the last window of opportunity to make good your escape to higher

ground – before finally the Tsunami Wave crashes over the land, sweeping all away .

• The last Wave in the sequence - the Tsunami Wave - crashes over the land, sweeping

everything before it as a catastrophic Black Swan Event. The chaotic and radically

disruptive Tsunami Wave travels through the ocean waters at hundreds of miles per

hour and arrives as the final Black Swan Event. Surging relentlessly inland, threatening

life and shifting boats, buildings and scenery – the catastrophic disturbance of the

Tsunami Wave, a wall of water, arrives as a relentless black wave swallowing up

everything as it sweeps inland carrying with it everything that lies in its path. This type

of Black Swan Event has already occurred twice this century – first, the Indian Ocean

Boxing Day Tsunami and secondly the Pacific Ocean Japanese Tsunami.

Related Risk Example – Japanese Tsunami Event March 11, 2011

Trigger D

Pacific Earthquake

Event – 11.03.2011


G

Factor E


Risk Event

Risk Event

H

The Continental Plate rises 10m, displacing a 10m water

column and the whole of Japan moves 3m towards the east while the east cost of Japan falls 1m relative to sea level

Risk Event

I

Japanese Coast-guard Vessel encounters the first 1m Tsunami Wave far out at sea

Risk Event

J

East Coast Flood Defences are overwhelmed by 10m Tsunami

Trigger F

Japanese Tsunami

Event – 11.03.2011

Stress builds up between Eurasian and Pacific Plates

K

E Trigger

K

Narita

Flooding

Disaster

B Trigger

I

Sendai

Flooding

Disaster

C Trigger

H

Fukushima Reactor

Disaster

D Trigger

G

L

Japanese Coastal

Flood Defences A

Trigger J

Fukushima

Flooding

Disaster

Miyagi

Flooding

Disaster

At 5.46am GMT (2.46pm in Japan) a massive

earthquake registered 9.0 on the Richter

scale, triggers a huge tsunami which

devastates Japan's eastern coastline,

Mitigation Factor

Japanese flood defences were re-built @5m above Sea level after the previous Tsunami event in 1967

http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/World-News/Japan-Tsunami-And-Earthquake---Fears-Grow-Over-Nuclear-Power-Plants/Article/201103215951274


• • CASE STUDY • A Pyroclastic Volcanic Eruption begins with a series of linked

and integrated events which have a common origin or source - in turn generating a

sequence of waves in ascending orders of magnitude. Pyroclastic Volcanic

Eruptions begin with a sequence of Random Events - in this case, it is a sequence

of Earthquakes somewhere deep under an Mountain Chain which is built up from

Andesitic Volcanoes – such as the Andes Mountain Chain.

• The Andes Mountains are parallel with the Pacific Oceanic Plate subduction zone –

an area where the Pacific Oceanic Plate plunges under the South American

Continental Margin. Sediment, sea water and organic remains from the Ocean floor

are carried down towards earth’s mantle and heat up as the Oceanic Plate plunges

deeper into the Earth’s Mantle. Liquids and gases released by this heating cause

the rocks in the Earth’s Mantle to melt, turning from a plastic semi-solid into a liquid.

This liquid then rises through the Earth’s crust and travels towards the surface,

collecting in pools forming Magma Chambers - before finally breaking at the surface

through and erupting as Volcanic Magma.

Krakatoa Volcanic Eruption Event

• On 27 August 1883, after a day of alarming volcanic activity, Krakatoa (an uninhabited

island in the Sunda Straits between Java and Sumatra, the remains of which are now

widely known as Anak Krakatau) erupted with a force more than ten thousand times

that of the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima (Thornton 1). Dutch officials in Java

reported the eruption around the world via undersea telegraph cables.

• This explosion, the loudest noise in historic times, was heard thousands of miles away

and instruments around the world recorded changes in air pressure and sea level. In

the months that followed, newspapers and journals printed vivid accounts of the

spectacular sunsets caused by fine particles that the volcano spewed into the upper

atmosphere and that circled the globe, gradually spreading further north and south.

• Rogier Diederik Marius Verbeek, a Dutch Mining Engineer, published his findings in

the Krakatoa Journal – the first scientific study of a volcanic eruption. Captain Johan

Lindemann, of the ship Governor General Loudon sailing in the Sunda Strait, gave

an eye-witness account of how he survived both the eruption and the tsunami. The

Royal Society formed a special Krakatoa Committee to collect these articles, other

eye-witness testimony, and more precise scientific data (such as barograph readings of

air pressure, temperature records and a series of sketches of the dust cloud) and

analyse the material meticulously in order to publish a thorough report of their findings.

Related Risk Example – Krakatoa Volcanic Eruption Event, 27 August 1883

Sunda Strait Shipping Disaster –

“Governor General Loudon” – ship

saved by action of Captain Lindemann,,

“Berouw” – ran aground 1km inland on

Sumatra - ship and crew total loss

Krakatoa


• In 1883, the volcanic island of Krakatoa erupted without warning. Within a day the

island had virtually disappeared in the loudest explosion ever recorded. The eruption

generated a succession of massive tsunamis that wiped out the Indonesian coastline

and killed over 30,000 people. These waves were three times higher than those seen

on Boxing Day in 2004. And over thirty miles from the volcano, across open ocean,

thousands more were killed by hot ash. The wife of Controller Beyerinck described her

experience on the morning of August 27, when the outermost edges of a pyroclastic

flow enveloped the Sumatra village of Ketimbang

• "Suddenly, it became pitch dark. The last thing I saw was the ash being pushed up through the cracks in the floorboards, like a fountain. I turned to my husband and heard him say in dispair ' Where is the knife?' . . . I will cut all our wrists and then we shall be released from our suffering sooner.' The knife could not be found. I felt a heavy pressure, throwing me to the ground. Then it seemed as if all the air was being sucked away and I could not breathe. . . . I felt people rolling over me . . . No sound came from my husband or children . . . I remember thinking, I want to . . . go outside . . . . but I could not straighten my back . . . I tottered, doubled up, to the door . . . I forced myself through the opening . . . I tripped and fell. I realized the ash was hot and I tried to protect my face with my hands. The hot bite of the pumice pricked like needles . . . Without thinking, I walked hopefully forward. Had I been in my right mind, I would have understood what a dangerous thing it was to . . . plunge into the hellish darkness.....”

Krakatoa

Krakatoa – prior to 1883 Event

Sunda Strait Shipping

Disaster – “Governor

General Loudon” – ship

saved by action of

Captain Lindemann,,

“Berouw” – ran aground

1km inland on Sumatra -

ship and crew total loss

Krakatoa Explosion

Event – 27.11.1883

Krakatoa

//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/34/Sunda_strait_map_v3.png

//upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/5b/Krakatoa_evolution_map-en.gif

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Map_krakatau.gif


• Several surveys and mariners' charts were made of Krakotoa,

but the islands were little explored or studied. An 1854 map of

the islands was used in an English chart, which shows some

difference from a Dutch chart made in 1874. In July 1880,

Rogier Verbeek, a Dutch Mining Engineer, made an official

survey of the islands but he was only allowed to spend a few

hours there. He was able to collect samples from several

places, and his investigation proved important in judging the

geological impact of the 1883 eruption

• For over a century geologists have been hard pressed to

explain why so many people died – but through field studies,

experiments and analysis of historical records they think they

have finally found the answers - hugely important because

volcanic activity has returned. Since the 1883 eruption, in

1927, a new island volcano, called Anak Krakatau ("Child of

Krakatoa"), has formed in the caldera, and is now grown to

over half the size of the original volcano. Geologists are

certain that Anak Krakatoa will erupt again. Of considerable

interest to volcanologists is the question of how and when.....

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Surveying

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mariner

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nautical_chart

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rogier_Verbeek




• The magma chamber beneath Krakatoa could have become over-pressurised by volatile

saturation and/or a magma mixing event - which may have triggered the 1883 eruption of

Krakatau. From the beginning of activity on 20 May to the onset of the 22–24 hour-long

climactic phase on 26–27 August, Krakatau produced a discontinuous series of vulcanian

to sub-plinian eruptions. Based on contemporary descriptions, the intensity of these

phases may previously have been underestimated.

• Very rapid displacement of the sea by pyroclastic flows remains the best explanation for

the series of catastrophic sea waves that devastated the shores of the Sunda Straits,

with the last and largest tsunami coinciding with the slumping of half of Rakata cone into

the actively forming caldera, perhaps during a period of great pyroclastic flow production.

• The large audible explosions recorded on 27 August may have been the rapid ejection of

large pulses of magma that collapsed to form pyroclastic flows in the ignimbrite-forming

phase. Co-ignimbrite ash columns rising in the atmosphere immediately after the

generation of each major pyroclastic flow may have contributed to the magnitude of the

air waves. A reappraisal of the eruption in the light of this, in conjunction with the

pressure (air wave) and tide gauge (tsunami) records from Jakarta, suggests that the

relationship between the latter two has been oversimplified in previous studies.


• The most realistic estimate of eruptive volume (magnitude) is about 10 km3 of dacitic

magma. The climax of the eruption began at 1:00 pm on 26 August with a plinian

phase which led into a 5-hour-long ignimbrite-producing phase. Caldera collapse most

probably occurred near the end of the eruption on 27 August, precluding large scale

magma-seawater interaction as a major influence on the eruption column and

characteristics of the pyroclastic deposits.

• Although no one is known to have been killed as a result of the initial explosion, the

tsunamis it generated had disastrous results, killing some 36,000 people and wiping

out a number of settlements, including Telok Batong in Sumatra, and Sirik and

Semarang in Java. An additional 1,000 or so people died from superheated volcanic

ash which literally rushed across the surface of the ocean. Ships as far away as South

Africa rocked as tsunamis hit them, and the bodies of victims were found floating in the

ocean for weeks after the event. There are even numerous documented reports of

groups of human skeletons floating across the Indian Ocean on rafts of volcanic

pumice and washing up on the east coast of Africa up to a year after the eruption.


• The 1883 eruption was amongst the most severe volcanic explosions in modern times

(VEI of 6, equivalent to 200 megatons of TNT - by way of comparison, the biggest bomb

ever made by man, Tsar Bomba, is around 50 megatons). Concussive air waves from

the explosions travelled seven times around the world, and the sky was darkened for

days afterwards. The island of Rakata itself largely ceased to exist as over two thirds of

its exposed land area was blown to dust, and its surrounding ocean floor was drastically

altered. Two nearby islands, Verlaten and Lang, had their land masses increased.

Volcanic ash continues to be a significant part of the geological composition of these

islands.

• It has been suggested that an eruption of Krakatoa may have been responsible for the

global climate changes of 535-536. Additionally, in recent times, it has been argued that

it was this eruption which created the islands of Verlaten and Lang (remnants of the

original) and the beginnings of Rakata - all indicators of that early Krakatoa's caldera

size, and not the long-believed eruption of c. 416, for which conclusive evidence does

not exist.


• The cataclysmic blasts of August 27 generated mountainous tsunamis, up to 40 m tall, that ravaged coastlines across the Sunda Straits. Many of the closest islands were completely submerged. After first being overwhelmed by massive pyroclastic flows Sebesi Island northeast of Krakatau, was inundated by a series of mammoth sea waves. The tsunami waves stripped away all vegetation, washed ~3000 people out to sea, and destroyed all signs of human occupation. Although located at seemingly safe distance, some 80 km east of the Sunda Straits, the low-lying Thousand Islands were buried by at least 2 m of seawater and their inhabitants had to save themselves by climbing trees.

• Eyewitness accounts of the massive waves came from passengers of the Governor General Loudon, who survived the tsunami wave only through the heroic efforts of its Captain, Johan Lindemann. The ship was anchored in Lampong Bay, near the village of Telok Betong when the first of several waves arrived on Monday morning: -

• "Suddenly we saw a gigantic wave of prodigious height advancing toward the seashore with considerable speed. Immediately, the crew . . .managed to set sail in face of the imminent danger; the ship had just enough time to meet with the wave from the front. The ship met the wave head on and the Loudon was lifted up with a dizzying rapidity and made a formidable leap... The ship rode at a high angle over the crest of the wave and down the other side. The wave continued on its journey toward land, and the benumbed crew watched as the sea in a single sweeping motion consumed the town. There, where an instant before had lain the town of Telok Betong, nothing remained but the open sea."


• Tsunami travel times from Krakatau to the Indonesian Coast (Java and Sumatra)

probably varied more than hitherto thought and there need not be a simple correlation

between the initiation times of the explosions and the arrival of the tsunamis. There is

some new evidence, however, that tsunamis in the Sunda Straits and vicinity were

probably influenced by coupling with the steam front and air waves generated by the

Pyroclastic Clouds as they skimmed across the sea. Various hypotheses about the

cause of the tsunamis and explosions are reviewed and it is concluded that the cause

of both is most likely related to the sudden emission of large pulses of magma

interacting with sea water when Krakatoa failed (similar in manner to St Helens in

1981) collapsing the volcano into the sea – which led to formation of the Krakatau

ignimbrite. Some future investigation of sea-floor deposits in the vicinity of Krakatoa

on the floor of the Sunda Strait will inform this debate.....

• The atmospheric dust from the Krakatoa eruption circulated in the upper atmosphere

for years – contributing to the “year without a summer”. The explosion produced

spectacular sunsets throughout the world for many months afterwards, as a result of

sunlight reflected from suspended dust particles ejected by the volcano high into

Earth's atmosphere. Interestingly, researchers in 2004 proposed the idea that the

blood-red sky shown in Edvard Munch's famous 1893 painting “The Scream” is an

accurate depiction of the sky over Norway after the 1883 eruption of Krakatoa.


A Trigger

A

Plate Tectonics

The Philippine Plate slides over the Indian Ocean Plate

C Trigger

B


Risk Event

Risk Event

D

Related Risk Example – Krakatoa Eruption Event, 20 May - 26 August 1883

The magma chamber beneath Krakatoa becomes over-pressurised

by volatile saturation and/or a magma mixing event - which may have contributed to or triggered the 1883 eruption of Krakatau

Risk Event

Risk Event

E

From the beginning of volcanic activity on 20 May

to the onset of the 22–24 hour-long climactic phase

26–27 August, Krakatau produced a discontinuous series of vulcanian to sub-plinian eruption events

Risk Event

F

Caldera collapse most probably occurred near the end of

the eruption on 27 August, precluding large scale magma-

seawater interaction as a major influence on the eruption column and characteristics of the pyroclastic deposits

Trigger G

Krakatoa Eruption

Event – 20.05.1883

26 August 1883 was a day of alarming volcanic

activity on Krakatoa Island in the Sunda Strait

Krakatoa Explosion

Event – 27.11.1883

26 August 1883 was a day of alarming volcanic activity on Krakatoa Island in the Sunda Strait

G

Trigger F

“Year without

a summer”

Climate Event

Related Risk Example – Krakatoa Disaster Event, 27 August 1883


Trigger F

Krakatoa Tsunami

Event – 27.11.1883

E Trigger

E

Sumatra

Pyroclastic

Disaster B

Trigger B

Java

Flooding

Disaster

C Trigger

C

Sunda Strait

Shipping

Disaster

D Trigger

D

L

A Trigger

A

Sumatra

Flooding

Disaster

Java

Pyroclastic

Disaster

On 27 August 1883, after a day of alarming volcanic activity,

Krakatoa (an uninhabited island in the Sunda Strait between

Java and Sumatra, the remains of which are now widely known

as Anak Krakatau) - erupted with a force more than ten

thousand times that of the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima

H

Risk Event

EI

P-waves travelling at 800km / hr cross Sunda Straight and arrive in Java and Sumatra

Risk Event

S-waves travelling at 400km / hr cross Sunda Straight and arrive in Java and Sumatra

Trigger G

Krakatoa Explosion

Event – 27.11.1883

J

Risk Event

E

Pyroclastic Cloud travelling at 500km / hr cross the Sunda Straight and arrive in Java and Sumatra

Risk Event

Tsunami wave travelling at 300km / hr crosses Sunda Straight and arrives in Java and Sumatra

Trigger F

Krakatoa Pyroclastic

Event – 27.11.1883

L

E Factor

F

“Year without

a summer”

Climate Event

Pyroclastic Cloud crosses

Sunda Straight and drives 1st Tsunami Wave Front

Sunda Strait Shipping

Disaster – “Governor General

Loudon” – ship saved by

action of Captain Lindemann,,

“Berouw” – ran aground on

Sumatra - ship + crew total loss

Extinction-level Black Swan Events


Human Survival • "Humanity's survival does not depend on reducing differences to a common identity, but

on learning to live creatively with differences."—Anonymous

• Humans are a resilient species – but survival is not inevitable. If Earth does not attain Type III status in time, a number of the following scenarios could pose a severe challenge - the least problematic being an asteroid impact or global nuclear war. Humanity may survive and even recover from a significant asteroid or comet impact with Earth, regardless of whether or not governments are alert enough to take precautions which offer any significant survival rate. An event like this will not entirely wipe out human existence, only reduce population numbers and significantly set back technological advancement. Human evolution will not have to start over again. Civilization will still have the opportunity to build upon any remaining technology.

• There is a clear and present danger that a Global-level Extinction Event will one day also remove all life on Earth. Major Global-level Extinction Events could be caused by: -

1. Near-by Gamma-ray bursts from dying stars in distant Supernova events or Solar Flares - mass coronal ejections - from various Suns in our own local stellar group.

2. Plate Tectonics / Continental Drift – aggregation of Continental Landmass at either the Equator or the Poles (Rodinia, Gondwanaland, Pangea etc.).is associated with “Snowball Earth” “Global Dessert” and “Stagnant Sea” Extinction Events.

3. Massive Meteorite or Comet strikes on the planet surface – thought to have contributed to the Cretaceous-Tertiary Boundary Event.

4. Major Volcanic Events – the Siberian Traps and Deccan Traps were associated with the Permian-Triassic Boundary Event and the Cretaceous-Tertiary Boundary Event

5. Climate Change – a Global Ice Age was associated with many of the Precambrian Extinction Events.



1 Hyperspace

Event

Quantum

Dynamics

The Collapsing Universe—the Universe could collapse into an internal or

external void, spreading at the speed of light and swallowing everything in

its path. Possible scenarios might include our own universe (membrane)

colliding with another in hyperspace, or collapsing into a different dimension

set (our six-dimensional companion Universe) or into a super-massive Black

Hole - one large enough to destabilize the entire structure of the Cosmos.

Has a Collapsing Universe happened before – and could it happen again?

According to String Theory, our Universe began as a ten-dimensional

membrane – which collapsed into the familiar four-dimensional Space-time

Continuum of our own Universe – along with our companion universe which

contains the remaining set of six further dimensions, all curled up together.

Scenarios for this catastrophe might be found in the ripping and collapsing of

our four-dimensional Universe into another dimension-set (for example, the

six additional dimensions locked into our invisible companion universe) - or

collision with and absorption into, an external universe (another membrane).

Astrophysicists argue much about this Future Scenario and its part in the

Standard Model for the lifecycle and evolution of the Universe - especially in

relation to scenarios for possible conditions prior to the “Big Bang”.

Extinction-level Black Swan Events Type Force Extinction-level Black Swan Event

2 Singularity

Event

Quantum

Dynamics

The Killer Strangelet – a Particle accelerator accident – the Universe

could collapse into an artificially created void, spreading at the speed of light

and swallowing everything in its path. Commentators have speculated that

physicists could accidentally cause this void in a Particle accelerator

experiment which went disastrously wrong, inadvertently creating an

unstable particle – the Killer Strangelet – which quickly collapses into a

most unwelcome mini-black hole. This viewpoint is somewhat speculative –

many Physicists maintain there is little to substantiate this scenario, which is

based on little more than science-fiction - as it would require a lot more

energy to effect than we currently muster in particle experiments on earth.

3 Singularity

Event

Quantum

Dynamics

Black Hole suddenly appears in the Solar System – swallowing up the sun

and planets - thus causing the end of the Solar System as we know it.....

4 Orbital

Disruption

Event

Gravity

Wave

Rogue black holes—it is estimated there are about 10 million black holes in

the Milky Way alone. The real threat is not that one would swallow the Solar

System, but pass close by and disrupt Earth’s orbit just enough to throw it

out of orbit into deep space – to become a cold, lifeless wandering planet



4 Orbital

Disruption

Event

Gravity

Wave

Cosmic Wanderers - Colliding Galaxies— Andromeda, our nearest Galaxy,

is about 250 million light years away and is on a collision course with the Milky

Way. The real threat here is not that the Solar System would be swallowed up

by another Solar System - but that a rogue star could pass close by and disrupt

Earth’s orbit sufficiently to knock it out of orbit and into deep space – or even

hurl our own Solar System out of position towards the edge of the new Galaxy.

Rogue black holes — it is estimated there are about 10 million black holes in

the Milky Way alone. The real threat is not that one would swallow the Solar

System, but pass close by and disrupt Earth’s orbit just enough to throw it out

into deep space. Wandering Stars — it is also estimated there are about 10

million Wandering Stars in the Milky Way, which could also pass close by and

disrupt Earth’s orbit just enough to throw it out into deep space. This has

happened before – early in the Earth’s history a close encounter with a rogue

Wandering Star disrupted the proto planetary orbits – hurling the Gas Giant

Plants away from the Sun, creating the Earth / Moon System, the Kuyper Belt –

a rubble zone and source of meteors where another rocky planet should be

between Mars and Jupiter – and the Oort Cloud, an icy frozen rubble zone far

beyond the planetary orbits, now the main source of icy asteroids and comets.

5 Impact

Event

Gravitation

Attraction

Wandering Planets — it is further estimated there could be another 10 million

exo-planets - expelled from their parent Solar System and are now wandering

freely around our galaxy in deep space. This has happened before – early in

Earths history, proto-planets Earth and Thea collided to form the Earth / Moon.

Based on data from the Hubble Space Telescope, the Milky Way galaxy and Andromeda galaxy are predicted to distort each other with tidal pull in 3.75 billion years, as shown in this illustration.

Andromeda v. Milky Way

• Andromeda is approaching us at more than 250,000 miles per hour – but it will take 4 billion years before it strikes the Milky Way.

• Computer simulations derived from Hubble's data show that it will take an additional two billion years after the encounter for the interacting galaxies to completely merge under the tug of gravity and reshape into the form of a single elliptical galaxy similar to the kind more commonly seen locally in the universe.

• Although the galaxies will plough into each other, stars inside each galaxy are so far apart that they will not collide with other stars during the encounter. However, the stars will be thrown into different orbits around the new galactic centre. Simulations show that our solar system will probably be tossed much further out from the galactic core than it is today.

The Aftermath: Following the collision of the two galaxies, a countless number of stars will be sent spinning into space as

Andromeda and the Milky Way lose their previous forms



6 Impact

Event

Gravitational

Attraction

Asteroid or comet impact – the odds of an asteroid or comet impact on the

Earth depend on the size of the Object. An Object approximately 15 feet in

diameter hits the Earth once every several months; 35 feet every 10 years; 60

feet every 100 years; 200 feet, or size of the Tunguska impact, every 200 years;

350 feet every several thousand years; 1,000 feet every 50,000 years; six tenths

of a mile every 500,000 years; and 5 to 6 miles across every 100 million years.

Any comet or asteroid five miles or over in diameter striking the planet would be

catastrophic for life on Earth, creating an extreme Extinction-level Event (ELE).

During early Geological Time, during the Pre-Cambrian Epoch - the Hadean

Period ended with a Late Heavy Bombardment from space – the impact craters

may still be seen on the surface of the Moon and Mars.

Mass extinction due to Impact Events such as these take place once every 26

million years or so, and may have something to do with the Solar System’s orbit

around the Milky Way (every 250 my). Some Astrophysicists have suggested

that the orbit of the Solar System passes through the Galactic plane accretion

disc once every 125 my. Astrophysicists have speculated that the Kuyper belt,

between Mars and Jupiter, contains asteroids meteor-forming bodies – and the

Oort Cloud, containing Planetoids such as Pluto, thought to exist beyond the

orbit of Neptune may periodically be disturbed by Gravity Waves from nearby

Supernova events, or by close passage to objects from our own Local Stellar

Group when the Solar System reaches specific positions orbiting the Galaxy.



7 Radiation

Event

Gamma

Rays

Supernova Events and Gamma ray Bursts—are the most energetic events in

the universe – Supernova Events are as a result of the collapse of megastars

and Gamma ray bursts possibly a result of the collision and merger of two

collapsed stars. At 1,000 light years away, any Gamma ray burst would appear

as an intense flash, as bright as the Sun. The next thing that we would notice after

the initial bright burst, is the sky turning a beautiful shade of Violet – accompanied

by a dancing bright blue-green Aurora effect as the radiation from such a star

burst interacted with the atmosphere, creating nitrogen oxides that would begin to

consume the ozone layer. Sirius, the Dog Star in the constellation Canis Major is

a Red Giant located within our own local star cluster which one day experience a

Supernova event – and thus presents a real and present danger to life on Earth.

As a result, radiation from the Sun penetrating the atmosphere would eventually

destroy all life. Gamma ray bursts currently observed by astronomers are very

distant, implying rarity – about one per galaxy per hundred years. The next

candidate for a Gamma ray burst in our home galaxy, the Milky Way, is the Red

Giant Betelgeuse in Orion – which Astrophysicists believe will go Supernova

within 500 years. As Betelgeuse is only 500 light years away from us – this may

already have happened and the light from this event is still travelling towards us.

Betelgeuse has lost 10% of its radiance over the last decade – as it shrinks and

begins to collapse into its own core – before rebounding in a massive Supernova.



8 Coronal

Mass

Ejection

Event

Nuclear

Fusion

Giant solar flares—or coronal mass ejections. Within a few hours, a mega

super-flare from the Sun would fry Earth and disintegrate the ozone layer.

Many observers believe that such an event is unlikely, since there is no

direct evidence to suggest this has happened in the past 3.7 billion years.

Others have suggested that Giant solar flares might have been associated

with previous mass-extinction events – particularly the PTB Event.

9 Electro-

magnetic

Event

Magnetic

Force

Reversal of Earth’s magnetic field—has not happened for about 780,000

years. Without the Earths magnetic stability, particle storms and cosmic rays

from the Sun and energetic subatomic particles from deep space would

begin to erode and even strip off the atmosphere as a whole – not just the

ozone layer – as has happened in the past on Mars.

10 Biotech

Disease

Event

Viruses

and Germs

Biotech disaster—scientists continuously create new species through

genetic engineering. Such tampering could backfire and have an adverse

effect on unintended consequences to other species. The misuse of

biotechnology, such as a terrorist groups creating and releasing airborne

virulent strains of Anthrax, Bubonic Plague, Ebola, Flue or HIV – to which

the Human population has no natural resistance - could kill off everyone on

the earth



11 Alien

Contact

Event

Biological

Predation

Invasion and Conquest — not likely, but anything is possible given enough time

and unimaginable motives. An advanced alien civilization might view humanity as

hostile, or as a technological quantum accident waiting to happen on a universal

scale. Perhaps we have something that they want or need.

“Kill Moment” – Invasion, conquest and genocide by a civilisation with superior

technology, e.g. Roman conquest of Celtic Tribes in Western Europe, William the

Conquerors’ “Harrying of the North” in England, Spanish conquistadores meet

Aztecs and Amazonian Indians in Central and South America, Cowboys v.

Indians across the plains of North America – are just a few past examples.

12 Alien

Contact

Event

Biological

Disease

Global Pandemic— If the balance of people coexisting with viruses and germs

gets out of control on a massive scale, contagious diseases could kill off

humanity. Contact with a foreign civilization or alien population and their bio-

cloud - carrying parasites and contagious diseases, leading to pandemics to

which the human population being exposed has developed little or no immunity.

“Ill Moment” – Examples include the Bubonic Plague - Black Death - arriving in

Europe from Asia, Spanish Explorers sailing up the River Amazon and spreading

Smallpox to Amazonian Basin Indians from the Dark Earth - Terra Prate - Culture

and Columbian Sailors returning to Europe introducing Syphilis from the New

World. The worst disease episode in history was the Spanish Flu Pandemic -

carried home by returning soldiers at the end of the Great War – this virus killed

more people than died in all the military action during the whole of WWI.



13 Global

Massive

Change

Event

Human

Impact

on Eco-

system

Ecosystem collapse—Global Massive Change. Certain species (insect

pollinators and insect pollinated plants) could die off under environmental

change pressure and so have a profound impact on humanity as all life on the

planet is connected in a living ecosystem.

Society’s growth-associated impacts on its own ecological and environmental

support systems, for example intensive agriculture causing exhaustion of natural

resources by the Mayan and Khmer cultures, de-forestation and over-grazing

causing catastrophic ecological damage and resulting in climatic change – for

example, the Easter Island culture, the de-population of upland moors and

highlands in Britain from the Iron Age onwards – including the Iron Age retreat

from northern and southern English uplands, the Scottish Highland Clearances

and replacement of subsistence crofting by deer and grouse for hunting and

sheep for wool on major Scottish Highland Estates and the current sub-Saharan

de-forestation and subsequent desertification by semi-nomadic pastoralists

14 Global

Massive

Change

Event

Human

Impact

on Eco-

system

FEW - Food, Energy, Water Crisis - as scarcity of Natural Resources (FEW -

Food, Energy, Water) and increased competition to obtain those scarce

resources begins to limit and then reverse population growth, global population

levels will continue expansion towards an estimated 8 or 9 billion human beings

by the middle of this century – then collapse catastrophically to below 1 billion –

slowly recovering and stabilising out again at a sustainable population of about 1

billion human beings by the end of this century.



15 Global

Massive

Change

Event

Human

Impact on

Eco-

system

Environmental toxins — Society’s growth-associated impacts on its own

ecological and environmental support systems, for example, intensive

industry and agriculture causing the exhaustion and pollution of all natural

resources. Shale Gas Fracking chemicals, industrial and agronomy pollutants

and pesticides, along with various bio-toxins could spell the end for humanity

if any of them were to escape out of control and spread into the Eco-system.

16 Tech

Disaster

Event

Robotics Nanotechnology disaster— autonomous nanotechnology De-construction

micro-robots could escape from their confines after an industrial accident and

spread throughout the Earths’ biosphere, reducing the Eco-system to waste...

17 Tech

Disaster

Event

Robotics Rise of the Machines - Robots take over— autonomous smart robots might

rebel, take over the world and end mankind – either under their own volition,

or through manipulation under remote control by dark external forces.....

18 Global

Warfare

Human

Impact on

Eco-

system

Weapons of Mass Destruction — misuse of biological, chemical or nuclear

weapons is an obvious threat to the future. Ethnic-targeted bio-engineered

weapons devised by terrorists could also wipe out an entire race, population

or nation. Invasion, conquest and genocide by a foreign / alien civilisation

with vastly superior technology, e.g. Roman conquest of Celtic Tribes in

Western Europe, William the Conquerors’ “Harrying of the North” in England,

Spanish conquistadores meet Aztecs and Amazonian Indians in Central and

South America, Cowboys v. Indians across the plains of North America…..

Extinction-level Black Swan Events Type Force Black Swan Event

19 Act of

God

Mass-

delusion

Mass insanity, mass hallucination, mass hysteria and mass hypnosis — as

world-wide physical health improves – so mental health is rapidly declining. 500

million people around the world supposedly suffer from some behavioural,

sociopathic or psychological disorder. By 2040, suicide triggered by manic

depression could be a leading cause of death. The real culprit in all of this could

be the recreational and clinical psychotropic drugs and other mind-bending

agents that we are currently being administered or exposed to. In the face of a

pending worldwide disaster or Extinction-level Event– real or imaginary - mass

insanity, mass hallucination, mass hysteria or mass hypnosis might take

over and the Human population ends itself in a global mass suicide event.....

20 Act of

God

Armageddon Divine intervention— not necessarily by a deity, however. During first contact

with any highly advanced Alien Civilisation, it might initially be misconstrued as a

religious experience – the return of the Messiah or the arrival of the anti-Christ –

and could be a catalyst for the end of the world struggle. In the confusion during

first contact - Religious fanatics belonging to doomsday cults out to persecute or

punish “non-believers” could easily find reason and methods to develop ways

and means to destroy humanity – or be exterminated by Aliens in an uprising.....

21 Act of

God

Creation Someone wakes up and realises it was all just a dream (or only a computer

simulation)—our own reality, or the local four-dimensional version of our own

reality - may not be the most stable form of existence. We might not exist at all -

we could all only be Avitars populating a virtual reality program running within a

computer that is the last thing left in a predominately dying or dead Universe.....

Future Research Problem: -

Qualitative and Quantitative Research Methods

The Search for Extra-Terrestrial Intelligence – SETI

• The Fermi Paradox • Qualitative Methods: – tend to be deterministic, interpretive and subjective in nature.....

• The Drake Equation • Quantitative Methods: – tend to be probabilistic, analytic and objective in nature.....

Research

Problem: -

The Search for Extra-Terrestrial

Intelligence – SETI

• The Fermi Paradox •

• The Drake

Equation •

Future Research Problem: - Qualitative and Quantitative Research Methods

• The Search for Extra-Terrestrial Intelligence – SETI •

• The Fermi Paradox •

Our Galaxy should be teeming with Alien Civilizations – but where are they?


• The Drake Equation • The Drake equation states that: – N = { (R)2 x f(p) x n(e) x f(i) x f(i) x f(c) x L(n) }

Quantitative Methods: – tend to be probabilistic, analytic and objective in nature.....

SETI Research – The Fermi Paradox

Our Galaxy should be teeming with Alien Civilizations – but where are they?

• The Sun is a young star. There are billions of stars in the galaxy which are billions of

years older than the Sun. Some of these stars likely have Earth-like planets, a few of

which orbit within the “Goldilocks zone” – the critical distance from the Sun where

water exists in all three physical states (as a gas, as a liquid and as a solid).

• If the evolutionary history of the Earth is at all typical – then surely some of these

exo-planets which share Earth-like conditions may be able to develop simple life, and

a few go on to and support intelligent life? Presumably some of this extraterrestrial

intelligent life might eventually create civilizations – and one or more might eventually

go on to create academic communities to investigate science and technology.



Is there any obvious proof that we could be alone in the Galaxy? Enrico Fermi

thought so – and he was a pretty smart guy. Might he have been right after all?

• It's been over a hundred years since Enrico Fermi, an icon of applied physics,

was born (and nearly a half-century since he died). Fermi is best remembered for

building a working atomic reactor in a squash court somewhere in Chicago (check

out your local leisure centre for any unusual activity, next time you visit.....).

• In 1950, Fermi made a seemingly innocuous lunchtime remark that has caught

and held the attention of every SETI researcher ever since. This remark came

while Fermi was discussing with his fellow diners the possibility of many

sophisticated societies populating the Galaxy. Fermi’s fellow diners all thought it

reasonable to assume that we should have a lot of cosmic company.



“Where is everybody – are we alone?“

• Fermi's alert mind quickly recognised that, if this were true, it implied something

much more profound. If there are really a lot of alien societies - then some of them

might have spread out. Fermi realized that any civilisation with a modest amount of

rocket science - and an inordinate amount of imperial ambition - could go on to

develop an advanced propulsion technology and rapidly colonise the entire Galaxy.

• “Star hopping” across the Galaxy to found new colonies – soon every star system

could be brought under the wing of the empire – say within ten million years, . Ten

million years may sound long, but in fact it's quite short compared with the age of the

Galaxy - which is roughly ten thousand million years. Colonisation of the Milky Way

should be a quick exercise. Fermi immediately realised that the aliens should have

more than enough time to populate the entire Galaxy – and reveal their presence.

• Looking around, he didn't see any clear indication that any aliens are out and about.

This prompted Fermi to ask an obvious question - "where is everybody?“



• At any practical pace of interstellar travel, the galaxy can be completely colonised by

“star hopping” - in a few tens of millions of years. Following this line of thought - the

Earth should have already been colonised by more technology advanced civilisations -

or at least visited by their unmanned scouting and manned surveying missions. There

is no convincing evidence that this has ever happened – and, as yet, no confirmed

signs that intelligence has ever been detected elsewhere in our own galaxy – let alone

from any of the more distant 80 billion other galaxies in the observable universe.

Hence Fermi's question "Where is everybody?".

• This question seems a bit simplistic. Most researchers consider this to be a radical

conclusion to draw from such a simple observation. The fact that aliens don't appear

to walk around the planet in broad daylight does not imply that there are no extra-

terrestrials anywhere among the vast tracts of the Galaxy. Surely there is a perfectly

straightforward explanation for what has become known as the Fermi Paradox - there

must be some way to account for our apparent loneliness in a galaxy that we assume

is full of sentient beings?


Minkowski


• During 1907, in an attempt to understand the previous works of Lorentz and Einstein - a radical four-dimensional view of the Universe (space-time continuum) was designed by German Mathematician Hermann Minkowski .

• Classical (Newtonian) physics, describes a three-dimensional vector co-ordinate system defining Space (position) - and the flow of Time (history) the other universal dimension – were considered to exist independently until the synthesis of Minkowski space-time continuum, .


• In1907 the German mathematical physicist Hermann Minkowski developed the concept

of a single space-time continuum - which provides a conceptual framework for all the

mathematical proofs used in relativity - including Albert Einstein's general and special

theory of relativity. Minkowski space-time is an integrated and unified four-dimensional

continuum - composed of three Positional Dimensions (Loci or Vectors x, y and z

coordinates) defining Space (vector / position) – which is entirely integrated and wholly

unified with a fourth Temporal Dimension (t coordinate) – defining Time (history).

• Minkowski quickly realised that the preliminary work on relativity theory could best be

explained and understood in a multi-dimensional universe which extended beyond the

three spatial dimensions (x, y and z axes) - to include a temporal dimension (t axis) - as

the foundation of a new, non-Euclidean four-dimensional geometry. Minkowski coupled

the two separate dimensions of Space and Time together to create a unified four-

dimensional Space-Time continuum - which was then employed in his own treatment of

a four-dimensional study of electrodynamics. This study involved a combination of two

previously separate systems – Space (with x, y and z axes) and Time (t axis) – to form

Space-Time (with x, y, z and t axes). He noticed that the invariant interval between

two events shared some of the properties of distance in Euclidean three-dimensional

geometry and formulated this invariant interval as the square root of a sum and

difference of squares of the intervals of both Space and Time.


• Using this concept, events which are localized in both space and time may be

considered as the analogues of points in three-dimensional geometry. Thus the

Time dimension in the history of a single particle or the timeline of an event in

Minkowski space-time - resembles the arc of a curve in a three-dimensional

Space, and is thus fully dependent on both its spatial and historical components.

• Like Space, Time is a Dimension – but Time only flows in a single direction, as

does a River. Time and Space can only exist together within a single, unified

Space-Time continuum. Without Time – there can be no Space, and without

Space – there can be no Time. Minkowski space-time is also often referred to as

Minkowski space or the Minkowski universe. Minkowski space-time is used

predominately in the study of relativity, although it can also be applied to other

subjects involving the coupling of spatial and temporal vectors – such as Futures

Studies. In order to exploit the Minkowski space-time continuum, this type of

coupling must demonstrate that the history of a particle or the transformation

of a process over time is fully dependent on both Space and Time.

Minkowski


• Space (position) and

Time (history) flow

inextricably together in

one direction – always

towards the future.

• In order to exploit the

principle properties of

the Minkowski space-

time continuum, any

type of Spatial and

Temporal coupling

must be able to

demonstrate that the

History of a particle

or the Transformation

of a process over time

is fully dependent on

both its spatial and

historical components.



• Many scientists have given this subject some considerable thought. The first

thing that they confirm is that the Fermi Paradox is based on a remarkably

strong and lucid argument. We can quibble about the speed of an alien

spacecraft, whether they can accelerate to 1 percent or 10 percent of the

speed of light - it doesn't matter – and if we simply add or subtract a “zero”

from 10 million years it might take to cross the Galaxy - it still doesn't matter.

• As each a new star colony founded from the mother planet begins to spawn

further colonies of its own, civilisation will spread inexorably across the

Galaxy. Any reasonable assumption about how fast colonisation could

reach out across interstellar space - still ends up with time scales for

Galactic colonisation that are profoundly shorter than the age of the Galaxy

itself. It's much like having a heated debate about whether Spanish ships in

the 16th century ploughed across the Atlantic at two knots or twenty. Either

way, it doesn't matter – the Spanish still rapidly colonised the Americas.



• Nuclear Fusion is the next barrier to our inter-stellar journey - the conquest of Hydrogen technology, the science required to support both a Hydrogen Economy (to free up the general population from energy dependency) and to enable interstellar travel (to free up explorers from gravity dependency).

• Nuclear Fusion requires the creation and sustained maintenance of the enormous pressures and temperatures to be found at the Sun’s core This is a most challenging technology that scientists here on Earth are only now just beginning to explore and evaluate its extraordinary opportunities.

• To initiate Nuclear Fusion requires creating the same conditions right here on Earth that are found the very centre of the Sun. This means replicating the environment needed to support quantum nuclear processes which take place at huger temperatures and immense pressures in the Solar core – conditions extreme enough to overcome the immense nuclear forces which resist the collision and fusion of two deuterium atoms (heavy hydrogen – one proton and one neutron) to form a single Helium atom – accompanied by the release of a vast amount of Nuclear energy.


For each civilisation that communicates, for what fraction of the

planets life does that Civilisation survive long enough to send

and receive detectable signals into deep interstellar space?

• There is a clear and present danger that one fine day; some future Global-

level Extinction Event may remove all Intelligent Life from the face of the

Earth. This may already have happened elsewhere…..

• In order to discover evidence of extraterrestrial life – there has to be two

civilisations in close proximity within the Galaxy broadcasting and receiving

signals at the same time – a ”pitcher” and a “receiver” – both have to be

capable of sending and receiving detectable signs of their existence deep

into interstellar space.



Periodically, there must be global Extinction-level Events – over time,

variable occurring Kill-curves for marine and terrestrial species on Earth

• Periodically, there must be Global-level Extinction Events which remove the dominant

extant life-forms – freeing up blocked, static or slowly evolving ecological niches and

allowing a rapid burst of adaptive evolution to take place. Throughout earth’s history,

both major and minor extinction-level events have occurred on many occasions. On

each Global-level Extinction Event – no terrestrial animal weighing over 22kg as an adult

has survived. This freed up “blocked” ecological niches which in turn has lead to the

development of intelligent life on our planet.

1. Pre-Cambrian and Cambrian Extinction Events – 1000-542 million years ago

2. Permian-Triassic Boundary (PTB) Event – 251.4 million years ago

3. Cretaceous – Tertiary Boundary Event – 65 million years ago

4. Global Massive Change – 20 kya to present day • Human Impact is now the major factor in climate change, environmental and ecological

degradation.

• Environmental Degradation - man now moves more rock and earth than do all of the natural geological processes

• Ecological Degradation – biological extinction rate - is currently greater than in the Permian-Triassic boundary extinction event

• Food, Energy, Water (FEW) Crisis – increasing scarcity of Natural Resource


Could we be alone in our part of the galaxy, or more dramatic still, could

we be the only intelligent life in the universe that has reached the

capability to develop a satellite communication technology which sends

detectable signs of their existence into deep interstellar space?

• The Physics of star clustering leads us towards new questions concerning the make-up

of stellar clusters and galaxies, stellar populations in different types of galaxy, and the

relationships between high-stellar populations and local clusters. What are the

implications for their relative formation times and galactic star-formation histories –

overall, resolved and unresolved – and consequent impact on the evolution of life?

• In the 13.7 billion years since the “Big Bang” there have been several Stellar

Generations or Star Cycles – as witnessed by the Hertzsprung Russell (HR) diagram

which plots the luminosity versus surface temperature of the star using red to blue

colour coding to indicate Luminosity versus Surface Temperature, which varies and

over time – the Stellar Lifecycle. The Hertzsprung Russell Stellar Cluster Diagram plots

the relationship between mean surface temperature and luminosity of a star –

demonstrating a massive range of different Star Types which vary not only by stellar

temperature and luminosity – but implicitly by stellar mass and longevity as well.

Star Clusters

• New and

improved

understanding

of star cluster

physics brings

us within reach

of answering a

number of

fundamental

questions in

astrophysics,

ranging from

the formation

and evolution

of galaxies –

to intimate

details of the

star formation

process itself.

Hertzsprung Russell

• The Hertzsprung

Russell diagram is a

scatter plot Cluster

Diagram which shows

the Main Sequence

Stellar Lifecycles.

• A Hertzsprung Russell

diagram is a scatter

plot Stellar Cluster

Diagram which

demonstrates the

relationship between a

stars temperature and

luminosity over time –

using red to blue colour

to indicate the mean

temperature at the

surface of the star.

Star

Clusters • The Physics of star

clustering leads us

to new questions

related to the

make-up of stellar

clusters and

galaxies, stellar

populations in

different types of

galaxy, and the

relationships

between high-

stellar populations

and local clusters –

overall, resolved

and unresolved –

the implications

for their relative

formation times

and galactic star-

formation histories.


“Where is everybody – why are we alone?“

• The first stellar cycles lasted only a few hundred thousand years, demonstrating an

extraordinary violent lifecycle – the massive early stars fed by the super-abundance of

Hydrogen and Helium. This converted simple Hydrogen and Helium atoms (the only

elements present in the Universe during the early stellar stage) into all of the 100-plus

elements that we are aware of today. Our Solar System has only been in existence for 4.3

billion years – about a third of the life of the Universe. Perhaps there simply haven’t been

enough Star Cycles yet’ to support abundant Intelligent Life in the current Stellar Phase –

are we the first?

• Consequently, scientists in and out of the SETI community have conjured up other

arguments to deal with the conflict between the idea that alien civilisations should be

everywhere and our failure (so far) to find any of them. In the 1980s, dozens of papers

were published to address the Fermi Paradox. They considered numerous technical and

sociological arguments for why the aliens weren't hanging out nearby in our stellar

neighbourhood. Some even insisted that there was no paradox at all - that the only reason

that we don't see any evidence of extraterrestrials - is because they don’t exist.....?


Hertzsprung Russell

• The Hertzsprung Russell

diagram is a scatter plot

Cluster Diagram which

shows Stellar Lifecycles

along the Main Sequence

• A Hertzsprung Russell

diagram is a scatter plot

Stellar Cluster Diagram

which demonstrates the

relationship between a

stars temperature and

luminosity over time –

using a red to blue colour

code to indicate the

surface temperature

through the stars lifecycle

.

The Drake Equation

• SETI Research – The Drake Equation •

The Drake equation states: - Nc = { (R*)2 x f(p) x n(e) x f(i) x f(i) x f(c) x L(n) }

• Where Nc = the number of civilizations transmitting detectable signals in the galaxy: -

– R* = the average rate of star formation per year in our galaxy

– N* = the average population of stars over the life of the galaxy

– fp = the fraction of those stars that have planets

– ns = the average number of planets that exist in any given Planetary System

– ne = the average number of planets that can support life per star with planets

– fℓ = the fraction of the above that go on to develop simple life at some point

– fi = the fraction of the above that actually go on to develop intelligent life

– fc = the fraction of civilizations that sends signs of their existence into space

– L = the time which civilizations release detectable signals into space.

• When all of these variables are multiplied together, we obtain the following result: -

Nc = the number of civilizations in the galaxy with detectable communication

The Drake Equation

Alternative expression: -

• The number of stars in the galaxy now, N*, is related to the star formation rate R* by: -

– N*(n) = f {R*(n) x t } dt

• where Tg = the age of the galaxy. Assuming for simplicity that R* is constant, then: -

– N* = R*(n) x T(g}

• The Drake equation can thus be rewritten into an alternate form phrased in terms of the

much more easily observable value, N*.[4]

– Nc = { N*(n) x f(p) x n(e) x f(l) x f(i) x f(c) x L} / T(g) }

• When all of these variables are multiplied together, we obtain: -

Nc = the number of civilizations in the galaxy with detectable communication

• For each civilisation that communicates, what fraction of the planets life does the

Civilisation survive to release continuous detectable signals deep into interstellar space?

The Drake Equation

• SETI Research – The Drake Equation •

The Drake equation states that: N = { (R*)2 x f(p) x n(e) x f(i) x f(i) x f(c) x L(n) }

• Where N = the number of civilizations with detectable communication in the galaxy

• Dr. Frank Drake, at the original SETI and the Exoplanetary Association conference,

developed The Drake Equation in 1961. The Drake Equation is used for estimating

the number of intelligent communicating Civilisations there are in our Galaxy – and

has been re-visited and refined by numerous scientists over the last fifty years.

Original estimates for Drake Equation Variables

• There was considerable disagreement between delegates present at the original

conference meeting on the values of these parameters. The “educated guesses”

used by Drake in 1961 concluded that Nc ≈ L – the number of civilisations was the

same as their average duration. Given the uncertainties, Drake stated that there

were probably between 1000 and 100m civilizations in our galaxy, the Milky Way :-

Nc = 1000–100m – where Earth is just one of numerous Galactic civilisations

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milky_Way

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milky_Way

The Drake Equation

• SETI Research – Original Values for The Drake Equation •

The Drake equation states that: Nc = { (R*)2 x f(p) x n(e) x f(i) x f(i) x f(c) x L(n) }

• Where Nc = the number of civilizations with detectable communication in the galaxy:

– R* = 1 per year (1 star formed per year over the life of the Galaxy – this is conservative)

– N* = 100 billion (100 billion star population over the life of the Galaxy – conservative)

– fp = 20-50% (one fifth to half of all stars formed will have Earth-like rocky Planets)

– ns = 100% (all of these planets will orbit within the “Goldilocks Zone”)

– ne = 1-5 (stars will have 1 to 5 planets capable of developing life –optimistic)

– fℓ = 100% (all of these planets will develop simple life – this is wildly optimistic)

– fi = 100% (all of these planets will develop intelligent life – wildly optimistic)

– fc = 10-20% (10-20% of which will develop the ability to communicate externally)

– L = 1k – 100m years (which will transmit somewhere between 1000 and 100m years)


Nc = 1000–100m – where Earth is just one of numerous Galactic civilisations

The Drake Equation

• BIOGENESIS – Gateways to Planetary Suitability for Life to first appear •

1. The planet must exists at a distance from its Sun where Water is present in all three

phases - as a gas, as a liquid and as a solid

2. The planet must have an orbiting Moon which exerts approximate gravitational attraction

equal to that of its Sun – in order to generate tides and help stabilise the planetary orbit –

orbital shape (eccentricity), axial tilt (obliquity), precession (wobble) and planetary

inclination

3. The planet must have a massive liquid iron core which sustains: -

1. a strong magnetic field - to preserve its atmospheric integrity from solar wind

2. a long-lasting heat source - to drive geological systems such as plate tectonics

4. The planet must have a surface predominantly covered by liquid water distributed across

interconnected oceans – allowing circulatory systems to distribute solar energy from the

tropics to the poles and drive weather systems (warm, surface ocean currents) and to

distribute nutrients and oxygen from the poles to the tropics (cold, deep ocean currents)

5. The planet must have a dense atmosphere – to absorb the energy of meteors and filter

harmful solar radiation, to support weather systems which distribute water from the sea

through evaporation, via water vapour and clouds in the atmosphere, and precipitation to

supply water in the form of rain and snow onto the land surface – the Water Cycle

The Drake Equation

• NATURAL CYCLES – Gateways to Planetary Suitability for Life to evolve •

1. The planet must have a surface predominantly covered by liquid water and supporting

interconnected oceans – allowing circulatory systems (ocean currents) to distribute

nutrients (dissolved from weathered rocks) and dissolved gasses (from the atmosphere)

from the surface in shallow continental seas to the ocean depths to support Benthonic Life.

2. The planet must have a dense atmosphere – to allow Solar Energy to drive the Water

Cycle – where water evaporates from the oceans and as it rises and cools condenses as

water droplets in clouds. Carbon dioxide can then be absorbed into those cloud water

droplets and is precipitated as rain on land and sea. This weak carbonic acid enables the

weathering of rocks - thus facilitating the removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere

and its fixing and subsequent deposition as carbonates in the sea – the Carbon Cycle

3. Life must evolve photosynthesis in order to capture solar energy to drive hydrolysis and

enable carbon dioxide capture - thus creating hydrocarbons for growth and releasing free

oxygen into the environment/ Photosynthesis must take place continuously for billions of

years to reduce and precipitate free iron radicals present in the environment - then go on

to accumulate free oxygen in the oceans and atmosphere – the Oxygen Cycle.

The Drake Equation

• BIODIVERSITY - Gateways to Planetary Suitability for to support multiple Phyla •

1. The planet must have a surface predominantly covered by liquid water so that the

evolution of multiple Aquatic Phyla becomes viable to support biodiversity

2. The planet must have a tidal range so that the evolution of semi-aquatic life is viable

across a range of littoral zones - shore-lines, swamps and marshes - so that the

evolution of multiple Amphibious Phyla becomes viable

3. The plant must have distinct seasons so that the evolution of terrestrial life is viable

across a wide range of climate zones and environments outside of the tropics - so

that the evolution of multiple Terrestrial Phyla becomes viable

4. Periodically, there must be Global-level Extinction Events which remove the

dominant extant life-forms – freeing up blocked, static or slowly evolving ecological

niches – which in turn creates favourable conditions for a rapid burst of radiative

evolution to take place to enable the evolution of new Phyla.

Quantitative Methods: – ..... tend to be probabilistic, analytic and objective in nature.....

The Drake Equation

Periodically, there must be global Extinction-level Events occurring over

time – variable Kill-curves for both marine and terrestrial species on Earth

• Throughout earth’s long geological history (4.6bn years) natural disasters – both

global and regional – have occurred on numerous occasions ,leading in biological

history (3.7bn years) to many major and minor extinction-level events. For each

global Extinction-level Event – no terrestrial animal weighing more than 22kg as an

adult, has survived. This process has “freed” up “blocked” ecological niches which

in turn has contributed directly to the development of intelligent life on our planet.

1. Pre-Cambrian and Cambrian Extinction Events – 1000-542 million years ago

2. Permian-Triassic Boundary (PTB) Event – 251.4 million years ago

3. Cretaceous – Tertiary Boundary Event – 65 million years ago

4. Global Massive Change – 20 kya to present day

• Human Impact is now the major factor in climate change, environmental and ecological degradation.

• Biological Extinction rate – ecological degradation - is currently greater than in the Permian-Triassic boundary extinction event

• Environmental Degradation - man now moves more rock and earth than do natural geological processes

• Food, Energy, Water (FEW) Crisis – increasing scarcity of Natural Resource

The Drake Equation

• Gateways for Intelligent Life to develop Society & Civilisations •

• For Phyla that support Intelligent Life, what fraction go on to develop Industrialised Social Structures & Technology-based Civilizations?

• Some scientists believe that Elephants, Cetaceans (whales) and Corves (rows) exhibit social behaviour and demonstrable intelligence. The pre-requisite for Intelligent life to form Civilisations - is a bipedal stance freeing up the front limbs to develop hands with opposing thumbs. Without hands, fingers and thumbs, however, not even the brightest Elephants, Whales and Crows - are capable of creating tools in order to manufacture artefacts.....

• Had the Raptors - small, intelligent, bipedal, carnivorous, feathered and warm-blooded dinosaurs - survived the Cretaceous–Tertiary Boundary extinction event 65 million years ago, then perhaps Raptors would have gone on to become the dominant life-form on Earth today and succeeded in developing a technology-based Civilisation – so that we Primates might have become their domestic animals of choice and preferred food-stock !


The Drake Equation

• Window for Civilisations to send and receive Communications •

• For Phyla capable of evolving Intelligent Life that support s a technology-based

civilisation - what fraction of those civilizations goes on to invent and develop a

digital communication technology enabling telecommunications satellites which

release detectable signs of their existence deep into space?

• In order to discover evidence of extraterrestrial life – there has to be two civilisations in

close proximity within the Galaxy broadcasting and receiving signals at the same time –

a ”pitcher” and a “receiver” – and both have to be capable of sending and receiving

detectable signs of their existence to each other - deep into distant interstellar space.

• Using the Earth as our model, then the expected lifetime of our Solar System is

approximately 10 billion years. Radio communication have only been in use for less

than 100 years. How long can our civilization survive without either destroying itself

through resource shortage and over-population, as predicted by Thomas Malthus, or

succumbing to some global Extinction-level Event – or are we able to overcome our

current global challenges and survive in some form or another – almost indefinitely?


The Drake Equation

• Window for communicating Civilisations to make external contact •

• For each technology-based civilisation that develops communication, over what

fraction of the planets existence does that Industrialised Society maintain the

continuous capability to communicate detectable signs of their existence deep

into interstellar space?

• For every civilisation that invents external communication, for what fraction of the planets

life does industrial society and technology-based Civilisation survive? If doomsday

arrived tomorrow, using the Earth as an example – this figure would be 1/100,000,000th

of the life of the Planet . If humans survived in some form or another for a further

10,000 years or more – then this fraction would now be 1/1,000,000th of the Planets Life.

• The Drake equation states that: - N = { (R*)2 x f(p) x n(e) x f(i) x f(i) x f(c) x L(n) }

– Where Nc = the number of civilizations with detectable communication in the galaxy.


– Nc = 1.056 – where Earth is the only detectable civilisation in our Galaxy +/- 5.6%

The Drake Equation

• SETI Research – Current Values for The Drake Equation •

The Drake equation states that: Nc = { (R*)2 x f(p) x n(e) x f(i) x f(i) x f(c) x L(n) }

• Where Nc = the number of civilizations with detectable communication in the galaxy:

– R* = 7 per year (7 stars formed per year over the life of the Galaxy)

– N* = 200 billion (200 billion average star population over the life of the Galaxy)

– fp = 20% (one fifth of all stars formed will have planets – mostly Gas Giants)

– ns = 33% (one third of these planets will be Earth-like rocky Planets)

– ne = 20% (one fifth of these planets these will be capable of supporting life)

– fℓ = 20% (one fifth of these planets these will go on to develop simple life)

– fi = 20% (one fifth of these planets will go on to develop intelligent life)

– fc = 20% (one fifth of these planets will be able to communicate)

– L = 100 years (these will transmit detectable signals in excess of 100 years)


Nc = 1.056 – where Earth is the only detectable civilisation in our Galaxy


Throughout eternity, all that is of like form comes around again – everything that is the same must return in its own everlasting

cycle.....


Many Economists and Economic Planners have arrived at the same conclusion - that most organisations have not yet widely adopted

sophisticated Business Intelligence and Analytics systems – let alone integrated BI / Analytics and “Big Data” outputs into their core Strategic

Planning and Financial Management processes.....


• Abiliti: Origin Automation is part of a global consortium of Digital Technologies Service Providers and Future Management Strategy Consulting firms for Digital Marketing and Multi-channel Retail / Cloud Services / Mobile Devices / Big Data / Social Media

• Graham Harris Founder and MD @ Abiliti: Future Systems

– Email: (Office) – Telephone: (Mobile)

• Nigel Tebbutt 奈杰尔泰巴德

– Future Business Models & Emerging Technologies @ Abiliti: Future Systems – Telephone: +44 (0) 7832 182595 (Mobile) – +44 (0) 121 445 5689 (Office) – Email: [email protected] (Private)

• Ifor Ffowcs-Williams CEO, Cluster Navigators Ltd & Author, “Cluster Development” – Address : Nelson 7010, New Zealand (Office)

– Email : [email protected]

Abiliti: Origin Automation Strategic Enterprise Management (SEM) Framework ©

Cluster Theory - Expert Commentary: -





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