From Checkbook Campaigns to Civic Coalitions: Lessons from the Passage of Prop A

Todd Swanstrom and David Kimball,University of Missouri-St. Louis Transit Initiatives and Communities Conference, St. Louis, MissouriJThe Targeted Turnout Strategy: Lessons from Passage of the Transit Tax in St. Louis County

1June 21, 2011The Targeted Turnout StrategySurprising Victory in April 2010

Two earlier defeats: 1997: Lost 58-422008: Lost 52-48

2010: Wins 63-37 Economic Recession High Unemployment Tea Party Anti-Tax Movement 2June 21, 2011The Targeted Turnout StrategyTwo Characteristics Make the 2010 Victory Even More SurprisingOff-Year Election

Year 2008 (M) 2010 (A)Ballots cast562,965151,613Yes on transit249,08948.45 %94,79562.90 %No on transit265,02751.55 %55,88437.10 %Votes on transit514,116150,679Drop-off48,8498.70 %9340.60 % Votes on Prop M (2008) and Prop A (2010)

3June 21, 2011The Targeted Turnout Strategy 2. Lack of unified business supportCivic Progress opposes an April 2010 tax initiative:

1. October 2009 Poll: 55% support for a transit tax

2. Negative image of Metro (cost overruns)

3. Poor economy

4June 21, 2011The Targeted Turnout StrategyJune 21, 2011The Targeted Turnout Strategy5Whats Up?How was St. Louis able to overcome obstacles and achieve a historic victory for transit?

Prop A CampaignThree-Pronged Campaign:

1. Educational Campaign (CMT) 2. Political Campaign (Advance St. Louis)3. Get-Out-the-Vote (GOTV) Campaign6June 21, 2011The Targeted Turnout Strategy1. Educational Campaign

CMT ($300,000) and St. Clair County Transit ($100,000) Hiring of R&R Partners (Salt Lake City)

7June 21, 2011The Targeted Turnout Strategy2. Political Campaign: Advance St. Louis 40-Member Steering Committee

Co-Chairs: Chancellor Mark Wrighton (Washington University) and Donald Suggs, St. Louis American

Chose John Nations (Rep. Mayor of Chesterfield) to Lead Campaign8June 21, 2011The Targeted Turnout Strategy20082010Total Contributions$858,289$1,030,391 Civic Progress (or Civic Progress member companies)$195,485(23%)$393,510 (38%)Washington University & BJC$17,500(2%)$168,510 (16%)Local Unions$7,500(1%)$20,200(2%)Contributions $500 and less$6,305(