the status of nuclear weapons: arsenals, modernizaons, and ... · 2 nuclear arsenals and trends...

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HansM.KristensenDirector,NuclearInforma7onProjectFedera7onofAmericanScien7sts

Phone:202-454-4695Email:[email protected]

Presenta7onto17thCas7glioncelloInterna7onalConference

Interna7onalSecurityintheTrumpEraPugwash-USPIDJointmee7ng

Cas7glioncello,ItalySeptember22,2017

TheStatusofNuclearWeapons:Arsenals,Moderniza:ons,andOpera:ons

It’sscarystuff!

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NuclearArsenalsandTrendsMorethan125,000warheadsproducedsince1945

Peakof64,500stockpiledwarheadsin1986(70,300ifincludingre7redwarheads)

• USstockpilepeakedearly(1967)• Russianstockpilepeakedlate(1986)

Enormousreduc7onssince1986peak:

• ~54,000warheadstockpilereduc7on• ~47,000+warheadsdismantled

~10,000warheadsinstockpiles(~15,000ifcoun7ngre7redwarheadsawai7ngdismantlement)

USandRussiapossess90%ofglobalinventory(94%ifcoun7ngre7redwarheads);eachhasmorethan4:mesmorewarheadsthanrestofworldcombined;157mesmorethanthird-largeststockpile(France)

Decreasing:US,Russia,Britain

Increasing:China,Pakistan,India,NorthKorea

Steady:France,Israel

Hans M. Kristensen, Federation of American Scientists, 2017 | Slide

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Withmorethan90%ofworldinventory,USandRussiahavespecialresponsibilitytoreduce

Reduc7onofdeployedstrategicwarheadsfromsome23,000in1989to3,600in2017(NewSTARTcounts3,176)

Readinesslevelofremainingstrategicforcesishigh:some1,800+warheadsonpromptalert

Noofficialde-aler7ng,butsignificantreduc7onofoverallalertnumbers:heavybombersde-alerted,USICBMsandSLBMsdownloaded,non-strategicforcesde-alerted

Trend:paceofreduc:onsisslowing

UScutonly1,273warheadsin2008-2017,comparedwith5,023warheadscutin1998-2007

Russiacutanes7mated1,629warheadsin2008-2017,comparedwith8,082in1998-2007

Insteadofcon7nuingpaceorincreasingreduc7ons,USandRussianstockpilesappeartobelevelingoutforthelonghaul;newemphasisonmoderniza7on

Newini7a7vesneededtopreventstallingofarmscontrol

NuclearArsenalsandTrends


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Largedisparityindeployedstrategiclaunchers(150inMar2017)fuelsasymmetricpostures:RussiaMIRVfocus;USlauncherfocus

Russianincreaseofdeployedwarheads2013-2016fueledspecula7onsthatRussiawouldnotimplementNewSTART

USreten7onoflargewarheaduploadcapacityand“warm”ICBMsilos,especiallywhenseentogetherwithadvancedconven7onalweaponsandgrowingmissiledefense,seenasdestabilizing

Overallmoderniza7onsdeepenEast-Westcrisisbyfuelingsuspicionandworst-casescenarioplanningonbothsides

RussianINFviola7onputstreatyfutureindoubtandpoisonsatmosphereforothertrea7es

Effortstoincreasetransparencyandreducenon-strategicweaponshavestalled

Russianincreaseofdeployedstrategicwarheadslooksbadandsendsthewrongsignal,butisnotmilitarilysignificant:

EvenifRussiadeployedaddi7onalstrategicwarheadstoconductadisarmingfirststrike,evensignificantlyabovetheNewSTARTTreatylimits,it“wouldhaveli=letonoeffectsontheU.S.assuredsecond-strikecapabili7esthatunderwriteourstrategicdeterrenceposture.”

The“RussianFedera7on…wouldnotbeabletoachieveamilitarilysignificantadvantagebyanyplausibleexpansionofitsstrategicnuclearforces,eveninacheaCngorbreakoutscenarioundertheNewSTARTTreaty…” DOD,ReportontheStrategicNuclearForcesoftheRussianFederaCon,2012


4Hans M. Kristensen, Federation of American Scientists, 2017 | Slide

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Un7llast-minutecutin2016,theObamaadministra7onhadreducedstockpiletheleastofanypost-ColdWarUSadministra7on.EvenwithlastcutitonlybarelyoutperformedClinton.Republica7onshavecuttwiceasmuch



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InEurope:significantreduc7onssinceColdWarandmostforcespulledback

Yetsignificantforcesremain:

•  3Europeannuclearweaponstates•  5non-nuclearweaponsstateshavesemi-nuclearstatus

•  Russiahas~1,850non-strategicnuclearwarheadsforair-,naval-,army-,anddefense-forces

•  NATOnon-strategicweaponsinclude~150USbombsinEurope(reddots)and54Frenchair-launchedcruisemissiles(consideredstrategicbyFrance)



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ICBM•  SS-27Mod2(mobile):replacingSS-25satNovosibirsk,Tagil,Yoshkar-Ola•  SS-27Mod2(silo):replacingSS-19satKozelsk•  SS-27Mod2(rail):envisionedbutuncertain•  RS-26(compactSS-27):toreplaceSS-25satIrkutskandVypolzovo•  RS-28(Sarmat):toreplaceSS-18satDombarovskyandUzhur

SSBN/SLBM•  SS-N-23SLBMlife-extension(Sineva/Layner)inDeltaIVSSBN•  BoreiSSBN:8planned(possibly10-12)•  SS-N-32(Bulava):fielding

Bombers•  UpgradesofsomeTu-160(Blackjack)andTu-95(Bear)•  Newbomber(PAKPA)indevelopment•  NuclearALCM(Kh-102)indevelopment

Tac7cal•  Tu-22M(Backfire)upgradeunderway•  Su-34(Fullback)fielding(replacingSu-24)•  Yasen(Sverodvinsk)SSGNfielding•  SLCM(SS-N-30A,Kalibr)fielding•  GLCM(SSC-8)fielding•  SSM(SS-26,Iskander-M)fielding(replacingSS-21)•  SAM(S-400/SA-21)fielding(replacingS-300);nuclear?•  ABM(A-135)upgradeplanned

Moderniza:on:Russia

Russiaisreducingitsarsenal


Upgradeof10short-rangeballis7cmissilebrigadessince2007

FromSS-21(Tochka-U)toSS-26(Iskander-M)

Firstbrigadeopera7onalin2014atLugaSouthofSt.Petersburg

SecondSS-26brigadepossiblynearMolkinoinKrasnodarKraieastofCrimea(right)

BothLugaandMolkinohavenewuniqueweaponsdepot

Introduc7onmightbegininKaliningradaround2018

Hans M. Kristensen, Federation of American Scientists, 2017 | Slide 8

Moderniza:on:Russia

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ItisotensaidthattheUnitedStateshashada“procurementholiday”onnuclearforcessincetheColdWar

Andthat“everyoneismodernizingbuttheUnitedStates”

Andthat“RussiaisbuildingwarheadswhiletheUnitedStatescan’t”

Well…

Moderniza:on:UnitedStates


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ICBM•  MinutemanIIIlife-extensioncomple7ng•  Warheadfuzes/interoperablewarheadplanned•  GBSD(ICBMreplacement)indevelopment

SSBN/SLBM•  TridentIID5SLBMlife-extensionfielding•  SSBNreplacementdevelopment(12planned)•  EnhancedW76-1warheadlife-extensiondeploying•  W88-1warheadlife-extensiondevelopment

Bombers•  UpgradeofB-2andB-52underway•  B-21next-genera7onbomberindevelopment•  B61-12guidedstandoffbombindevelopment•  LRSO(ALCMreplacement)indevelopment

Tac7cal•  F-35Anuclearcapabilityindevelopment•  B61-12guidedstandoffbombindevelopment

Infrastructure•  UraniumProcessingFacility(secondaries)construc7on•  Plutoniumproduc7onfacili7es(primaries)construc7on•  Warheadsurveillance/simula7onfacili7esupgrades

Moderniza:on:UnitedStates

TheUnitedStatesisreducingitsarsenal


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•  Modifica7onofB61bombfrom“dumb”bombtoguided,standoffB61-12withguidedtailkitassemblythatincreasestarge7ngaccuracyandefficiency:onetypecancoverallbombmissions(tac7calaswellasstrategic)*

•  B61-12integra7ononB-2,B-21,F-15E,F-16,F-35A,Tornado•  B61-12FirstProduc7onUnitin2020;stockpilingfrom2024

•  B61-12cost$8-$10billion:morethanadecadeworthofEuropeanReassuranceIni7a7ves

•  TheB61-12willreplaceB61-3,(B61-4),B61-7,B61-10,B-83*Note:Digitalaircrat(B-2,B-21,F-15E,F-35A)willbeabletousetailkitforguidedemployment;olderanalogaircrat(Tornado,F-16)willuseballis7cemployment

“TheAirForcetailkitwillprovidetheB61-12withameasureofimprovedaccuracytogivethesamemilitarycapabilityasthehigheryieldbombsitreplaces.“

BrianMcKeon,OSD,July28,2016(emphasisadded)


Moderniza:on:UnitedStates+NATO

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Ac7vevaultweaponstoragesystematsixbasesinfivecountries:Belgium(KleineBrogel),Germany(Buchel),Italy(Aviano,Ghedi),Netherlands(Volkel),Turkey(Incirlik).SecurityatUSbaseshasbeenupgradedatAviano(below)andIncirlik



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Moderniza:on:China

ICBM/IRBM•  DF-31AGICBMindevelopment•  DF-31A(CSS-10Mod2)ICBMfielding•  DF-5B(CSS-4Mod2)ICBMwithMIRV•  DF-41ICBMindevelopment(possiblyMIRV)•  DF-26IRBMfielding

SSBN/SLBM•  Jin(Type-094)SSBNfielding(4-5expected)•  JL-2(CSS-N-14)SLBMindevelopment•  Type-096SSBNpossiblyindevelopment

CruiseMissiles:•  ALCM(CJ-20onH-6bomber)indevelopment*•  NewALCMindevelopment,possiblynuclearop7on**

*Listedin2013AFGSCbriefingasnuclear**ListedinDIA2017briefing

Chinaisincreasingitsarsenal


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Moderniza:on:France

SSBN/SLBM•  TNOwarheadfieldingonM51.2SLBM•  M51.3SLBMindevelopment

Bombers•  RafaleK3toreplaceMirage2000NatIstresAirBase•  Next-genera7onALCMindevelopment

Infrastructure•  MegajouleatCESTAdevelopment•  Airix/EpurehydrodynamictestcenteratValducdevelopment(partlyJointFrench-UKwarheadsurveillancetes7ngcenter)

Franceisneitherincreasingnorreducingitsarsenal


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Moderniza:on:Britain

SSBN/SLBM•  SSBNDreadnoughtindevelopment(4planned)•  SLBM(TridentIID5LE)SLBMfielding•  Mk4A/W76-1typewarheadfielding

Infrastructure•  JointUK-Frenchwarheadsurveillancetes7ngtechnology

centerdevelopment

Britainisreducingitsarsenal


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Moderniza:on:Pakistan

MRBM/SRBM•  ShaheenIIIMRBM(Haw-6)indevelopment(MIRV?)•  ShaheenIIMRBM(Haw-6)fielding•  NASRSRBM(Haw-9)fielding•  AbdaliSRBM(Haw-2)fielding

CruiseMissiles•  GLCM(Babur/Haw-7)indevelopment•  ALCM(Ra’ad/Haw-8onMirage)indevelopment•  SLCM(Babur3)indevelopment

Infrastructure•  Khushab-IVreactor#4construc7on•  Uraniumenrichmentfacilityupgrade

Pakistanisincreasingitsarsenal


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Moderniza:on:India

ICBM/IRBM/MRBM•  AgniVIICBMindevelopment(MIRV?)•  AgniVICBMindevelopment•  AgniIVIRBMindevelopment•  AgniIIIIRBMfielding

SSBN/SLBM•  ArihantSSBNdevelopment(3+expected)•  K-15/K-4SLBMindevelopment•  DhanushSLBMfielding

CruiseMissiles•  GLCM(Nirbhay)indevelopment*

Infrastructure•  Oneplutoniumproduc7onreactordeveloping•  Breederreactors?

*Reportedbynewsmediabutnotlistedin2017NASICreport.

Indiaisincreasingitsarsenal


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Moderniza:on:Israel

IRBM•  JerichoIIIIRBMindevelopment?

SSG/SLBM•  DolphinSSGfielding•  SLCM(PopeyeTurbo/Harpoon)rumored*

Bomber•  F-35Afielding

*Reportedbynewsmediabutdeniedbyofficials.USpublicintelligencereportsomitreferencestoIsraelinuclearforces.

Israelisneitherincreasingnorreducingitsarsenal


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Moderniza:on:NorthKorea*

ICBM/IRBM/MRBM•  NoDongMRBMfielding•  ScudERMRBMindevelopment•  Bukkeukseong-2MRBMinearlydevelopment•  Hwasong-10(Musudan)IRBMindevelopment•  Hwasong-12IRBMinearlydevelopment•  Hwasong-13(KN-08)ICBMindevelopment•  Hwasong-14ICBMindevelopment•  TaepoDong2SLV(ICBM?)indevelopment

SSBN/SLBM•  SSBNindevelopment•  Bukkeukseong-1SLBMindevelopment

Infrastructure•  Yongbyonplutoniumproduc7onreactorre-start•  Uraniumenrichmentproduc7onconstruc7on

*Atersixundergroundnucleartestsandincreasinglyadvancedmissiletests,NorthKoreamightbecapableofminiaturizingitstestdevices.Itisuncleartowhatextentitshasopera7onalizeditsnuclearcapability.Sufficientfissilematerialfor30-60warheadsbutassemblednumberunknown.

NorthKoreaisincreasingitsarsenal


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Long-rangebomberflightsresumedin2004;non-strategicnuclear-capablefighter-bombersclosertoNATOcountriesincreasedsharplysince2012;“snap”exercisesincreasinginfrequency,size,visibility;occasionalexplicitnuclearthreatsissuedbyofficials

NuclearstrategysimilartoUSbutmoreemphasisonnon-strategicweaponsandearly/firstuse

Maynotalwaysbeexplicitnuclearsignal,butotenseenassuch

Bal7cSea:Su-24fighter-bomberintercept Bal7cSea:Tu-22MbombersreportedlysimulatednuclearstrikeagainstSwedenin2013

NorthSea:Tu-95bomberintercept Bal7cSea:SS-N-9SLCMloading

TelevisedICBM/SLBMlaunches

Luga:SS-26returnfromKaliningraddeployment

NuclearOpera:ons:Russia


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F-16 deployments to Estonia, Poland, Sweden

B-52 over Latvia B-52, B-2 deployment to United Kingdom

B-52s over BALTOPS exercise SSBN visit to Scotland

NuclearOpera:ons:UnitedStates

Long-rangebombersintegratedmoreprominentlyintoEUCOMstrikeplanning;ColdWar-likebomberstrikeexercisesoverNorthPoleandNorthSeaintoBal7cSea;exercisesinEasternEuropeincreasinginfrequency,size,visibility;fighter-bomberrota7onaldeploymentsandexercisesinBal7cStates,Poland,Sweden;occasionalSSBNportvisitstoScotland

2013nuclearstrategyreaffirmedcounterforce,rejectedminimumdeterrence


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Aspartof“maintainingtheU.S.nucleardeterrentwithNATO”toprovidethe“supremeguaranteeofthesecurityoftheAllies,”USEuropeanCommand“hasforgedalinkbetweenSTRATCOMBomberAssuranceandDeterrencemissionstoNATOregionalexercises.”

GeneralPhilipBreedlove,SACEUR,February2015

PerhapsthemostsignificantchangeinUSopera7onshasbeentheresump7onofbomberstrikeexercisesovertheNorthernHemisphere

ExercisePolarGrowlonApril1,2015sawdeploymentoffourB-52sovertheNorthPoleandNorthSea.Thebomberswentallthewaytotheirlaunchpointsforair-launchedcruisemissiles.

ExercisePolarRoaronAugust1,2016sawdeploymentofsixbombers(4B-52and2B-2)overtheNorthPacific,NorthPole,NorthSea,andBal7cSea.Thedeterrenceexerciserequired24tankers.


NuclearOpera:ons:UnitedStates

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Conclusions

GlobalnuclearforceshavebeenreducedsignificantlysinceColdWar,but…

Thepaceofreduc7onsisdecreasing

Fournuclear-armedstatesareincreasingthesizeofarsenals

Allnuclear-armedstatesaremodernizingtheirforces

Nuclear-armedstatesarereaffirmingtheimportanceandroleofnuclearweapons

Nuclearplanning(signaling,readiness,plans)isbeingrevitalized

Manynon-nuclearweaponstatescon7nuetorelyonnuclearweaponsstatesforna7onalsecurity

Noneofthenuclear-armedhaveplanstoeliminatenucleararsenalsbutseemintentonkeepingthem

Therearecurrentlynonego7a7onsaboutadop7ngnewsarmscontroltrea7es


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QUESTIONS?

Addi:onalinforma:onandresourcesfromFASNuclearInforma:onProject:

FASStatusofWorldNuclearForcesOverviewhzps://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/

FASNuclearNotebookSeries(ColumninBulle:noftheAtomicScien:sts):hzp://thebulle7n.org/search/feature-type/nuclear-notebook

FASStrategicSecurityBlog:hzps://fas.org/blogs/security/

ThisBriefingandOtherNuclearRelatedFASPublica:ons:hzps://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/nuclear-informa7on-project-publica7ons/


the status of nuclear weapons: arsenals, modernizaons, and ... · 2 nuclear arsenals and trends...

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