Therelativepriceofhealthy&unhealthyfoodsin177countries

DerekHeadeyd.headey@cgiar.org

Poverty,HealthandNutritionDivisionInternationalFoodPolicyResearchInstitute(IFPRI)

Introduction

Otherenvironment1%

Sexualabuse2% Lowphysicalactivity

2%Occupation

4%Alcohol,drug

9%

Unsafesex9%

WASH

10% MALNUTRITION(mostlynon-diet)

14%

Tobacco14%

Airpollution15%

DIETARYRISKS20%

Non-metabolicriskfactorsinthe2015GlobalBurdenofDiseaseStudy:PercentageoftotalDALYs

Introduction

Dietaryproblemsvaryacrossregionsandincomegroups:

q LowIncomeCountries(LICs):Protein-energyundernutrition,multiplemicronutrientdeficiencies;lackofhighqualityprotein(animalsourcedfoods)

q HighIncomeCountries(HICs):Excessintakeofcarbs,sugar,trans-fats,processedredmeat,sodium;lowintakeoffruit&vegandwholegrains

q MiddleIncomeCountries(MICs):Mostnowhavedoubleburdens(asdomanyLICs)

Introduction

Areovernutritionandundernutritionproblemsconnectedbyaffordabilityofhealthyandunhealthyfoods?

q MostworkonfoodpricesandnutritionhasfocusedonobesityinspecificHICs(e.g.Drewnowski etal.)

q 2studiesdocomparativeanalysis(ODI;PUREstudy)q InLICs&MICsonlyafewcontributions:

Ø Demandanalysis(own-priceelasticities)Ø Biofortificationliterature(Bouis):MNsexpensive!Ø Recentag-nutritionliteratureonIndiaandBangladesh

(Headeyetal.;Senetal)&forthcomingworkfromIANDA

q Usepricesforstandardizedfoodsin177countries,for2011q Caloriecontentisanimportantfactorinmakingfooddecisionsq Inmostcountriescerealsarethemainsourceofcaloriesq Hencewemeasurecalorie-priceratios:Costof1eggcalorieto1cerealcalorie(e.g.rice)q Capturescostofdiversifyingoutofstaplesatagivenincome

Hypotheses?H0:Lawofonepriceacrosscountries(littlepricevariation)H1_A:Foodpricesvaryalotacrosscountries

Moretrueforperishablefreshfruits&vegandASFsH1_B:Non-tradablefoodpricesinfluencedbyproductivityH1_C:Variationinfoodpricesexplainschildfeedingpatterns

Introduction

q 2011InternationalComparisonProgramdata(ICP),typicallyusedforestimatesofnationalaccounts,income&poverty

q Cost-of-living,orpurchasingpower,isattheheartofICPq Requirespricecollectionfor“standarddefinitionproducts”

Ø Incompletedataon200foodproductsin177countriesq Nationalaveragepricesarereported(novendor-leveldata)q Supplementwithnationaldatasourceswhereneededq CombinewithUSDAfoodconversiondataforcaloriecontentq Assignfoodsto17groups,measurecheapestfoodineachq Strengths:Highdegreesofstandardizationq Weaknesses:Fruit,veg,pulsesandfishareunder-populated

Data&methods

Shortname Description

Long grain rice - Parboiled Number of units: 1: Unit of measurement: Kilogram: Min: 0.5: Max: 1.2: Brand: Well known: Type: Long grain, white rice (milled rice): Packaging: Pre-packed; paper or plastic bag: Quality: High grade: Preparation: Parboiled : Share of broken rice: Very low (not more than 5%): Other features: Not enriched, not aromatic (fragrant), not sticky: Exclude: Premium rice e.g. Basmati rice, Jasmine rice

Short-grained rice Number of units: 1: Unit of measurement: Kilogram: Min: 0.5: Max: 1.2: Brand: Brandless: Type: Short grain White: Packaging: Loose or plastic foiled : Preparation: Uncooked, non-parboiled: Milling: Extra-well-milled: Share of broken rice: Below 50%: Other features: Not enriched, not aromatic (fragrant), not sticky: Exclude: Premium rice e.g. Basmati rice, Jasmine rice

White bread Number of units: 500: Unit of measurement: Gram: Min: 250: Max: 500: Brand: Not relevant: Type: White bread loaf with hard crust, not sliced: Packaging: Loose: Ingredients: Min. 90% wheat (white flour); High (first) grade flour, on a water base

Beef, Fillet Number of units: 1: Unit of measurement: Kilogram: Type: Fillet (a strip of boneless meat): Status: Chilled (refrigerated): Composition: Without bones: Cut: Middle upper part of loin (tenderloin): Fat content: No fat (trimmed)

Milk, un-skimmed Pasteurized Number of units: 1: Unit of measurement: Liter: Min: 0.8: Max: 1.5: Brand: Well known: Type: Cow; fresh, un-skimmed milk (whole milk): Packaging: Pre-packed; carton: Processing: Pasteurised; HTST (High Temperature/Short Time) treatment : Fat content: Natural (3-4%): Other features: Not fortified, not flavored: Exclude: UHT (Ultra-high temperature) milk: Comments: Specify brand, weight observed

Large size chicken eggs Number of units: 6: Unit of measurement: Piece: Min: 4: Max: 12: Brand: Not relevant: Type: From industrially bred, caged hen: Packaging: Pre-packed: Weight per piece: 63-72 g: Comments: Specify weight; size of unit observed

Palm oil Number of units: 1: Unit of measurement: Liter : Brand: Well known: Type: 100% pure, refined : Packaging: Pre-packed; plastic bottle: Other features: Industrial production: Comments: Specify brand observed

Banana, Standard Number of units: 1: Unit of measurement: Kilogram: Type: Fresh traditional yellow bananas: Packaging: Loose : Length: 14 - 18 Cm: Quality: Good quality; fresh, Intact (unbroken, unmarked) skin: Exclude: Fair trade fruits, organic fruits, Short finger local banana type: Comments: Specify whether "in-season" or "out-of-season"

Sweet Potatoes Number of units: 1: Unit of measurement: Kilogram: Type: Fresh sweet potatoes (Color varies: yellow/orange/purple or light brown): Packaging: Loose : Quality: Good quality; fresh, Intact (unbroken, unmarked) skin: Exclude: Organic vegetables, yam

Data&methods

Number of units: 1: Unit of measurement: Kilogram: Min: 0.5: Max: 1.2: Brand: Well known: Type: Long grain, white rice (milled rice): Packaging: Pre-packed; paper or plastic bag: Quality: High grade: Preparation: Parboiled : Share of broken rice: Very low (not more than 5%): Other features: Not enriched, not aromatic (fragrant), not sticky: Exclude: Premium rice e.g. Basmati rice, Jasmine rice

Data&methodsStarchystaples

Cereals(N=13) Rice(5),breadproducts(5),maizeflour,maize,tortillaRoots/tubers(N=3) Brownpotatoes,sweetpotatoes*,cassava

HealthyvegetalfoodsLegumes(N=2) Lentils(dry),mungbeans(dry)vA-richfruits/veg (N=7) Carrot,sweetpotatoes*,redpepper,grapefruit,mango,papaya,peachDGLveg.(N=3) Spinach,Lettuce,GreenCabbageOtherVeg (N=4) Cauliflower,tomato,onion,eggplantOtherfruit(N=8) Apple(2varieties),avocado,grapes,orange,lemon,watermelon,melonBabycereal(N=1) Babycereal:drymix,typicallyfortified

Animalsourcedfoods(ASFs)Milk(N=5) Pasteurizedfreshmilk(3types),condensedmilk,powderedmilkWhitemeat (N=4) Wholechicken(2types),chickenbreast,chickenlegRedmeat (N=16) Beef/veal(7),Lamb/mutton(4),Pork(4),GoatEggs(N=2) Largebrowneggs,mediumbrowneggsFish(N=5) FreshCarp,MackerelorTilapia;cannedSardinesorTuna(HIC only)

Unhealthycondiments,junkfoodOils/fats(N=9) Butter(3),sunflower,olive,palm,soybean,peanut,vegetableSugar(n=2) Whitesugar,brownsugarPotatochips(N=1) PlainsaltedpotatochipsCoca-Cola(N=1) CocaCola,bottled

Weanalyzethedatainseveralsteps1:Differencesincalorie-pricesacrossfoods&regionsØClassifycountriesintogeographicalsub-regions,butpoolHICsØFocusondifferencesinmeancalorie-pricesacrossfoodgroups,andvariationacrosscountrieswithinfoodgroups

ØThenlookatdifferencesincalorie-pricesacrossregions

2:Linkingcalorie-pricestochilddiets&stuntingØDHSdataonchildren’s24hrfoodgrouprecall:45-60countriesØUseWHOdataonprevalenceofstuntingØAllregressionscontrolforGDPpercapita

Data&methods

Pricedifferencesacrossincomegroups

0

5

10

15

20

25

PanelA:CPRsacrosslow,middleandhighincomecountries

LIC MIC HIC

F1.Population-weightedmeanCPRsbyincomelevel

0%

100%

200%

300%

400%

500%

600%

700% PanelB:RatioofmeanCPRsinLICsandMICstomeanCPRsinHICs

LIC MIC

Pricedifferencesacrossincomegroups

Eggs&poultry5timesmoreexpensiveinLICs!Dairy&redmeattwiceasexpensive!

Fishrelativelycheap!

High income

E. Euro C. Asia

SouthAmerica

CentralAmerica

Small Islands

M. EastN. Africa

East Asia

South Asia

East Africa

Sth. Africa

West Africa

Central Africa

N 44 16 7 10 28 9 10 5 6 11 16 7

Plant-based foodsRoot/tuber 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.4 3.4 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.2 3.4 1.5 1.7Legumes 1.2 1.7 2.9 2.6 2.3 1.9 3.1 2.2 4.6 4.5 6.0 5.3VA-rich FVs 3.0 4.0 3.0 2.8 4.2 2.4 2.8 2.4 1.7 4.4 2.1 2.7DGL veg. 9.0 11.4 6.2 5.6 15.3 5.9 8.1 7.3 5.1 11.0 14.0 13.4Other Veg. 3.3 3.1 8.4 6.0 9.9 4.1 9.6 6.2 6.9 12.9 10.8 16.6Other fruit 1.7 1.8 1.6 1.3 3.1 2.5 3.8 3.0 2.0 4.2 3.6 3.0Baby cereal 5.0 7.7 9.6 5.0 8.8 11.2 15.3 12.1 25.9 15.5 18.0 22.6

Animal-sourced foodsDairy 2.0 2.7 2.9 2.5 2.2 2.5 3.7 4.1 4.9 6.0 4.0 4.5White meat 2.0 2.7 3.2 2.5 3.6 4.2 5.2 7.0 9.8 7.7 6.2 5.3Red meat 3.5 4.1 5.3 4.1 6.1 9.9 6.6 8.4 5.0 7.3 6.6 6.7Eggs 3.0 3.7 5.0 4.2 6.6 4.4 7.1 6.9 7.8 10.0 9.8 10.9Fish/seafood 4.3 5.2 3.4 3.8 9.4 4.8 4.7 5.4 6.2 5.5 4.4 5.1

Unhealthy processed foodsOils/fats 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.3 1.6 1.2 1.0Sugar 0.5 0.8 1.0 0.7 1.1 1.0 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.9 1.7Potato chips 2.5 4.4 7.1 5.9 7.2 4.4 4.2 4.2 8.3 10.3 10.1 12.7Coca-Cola 3.0 4.7 5.9 4.8 7.9 4.8 8.2 10.5 15.4 15.3 17.3 20.9

Pricedifferencesacrossregions

Pricedifferencesacrossregions

0.02.04.06.08.010.012.014.0

HIC SAM SIS EAS WAF SAF

Poultrymeat

0.02.04.06.08.010.012.014.0

HIC SAM MNA SAS EAF MAF

Redmeat

0.02.04.06.08.010.012.014.0

HIC

ECA

SAM

CAM

MNA

EAS

SAS

WAF EAF

SAF

MAF

Fish

0.02.04.06.08.010.012.014.0

HIC

ECA

SAM

CAM

MNA

EAS

SAS

WAF EAF

SAF

MAF

Dairy

0.02.04.06.08.010.012.014.0

HIC

ECA

SAM

CAM

MNA

EAS

SAS

WAF EAF

SAF

MAF

Eggs

0.02.04.06.08.010.012.014.0

HIC

ECA

SAM

CAM

MNA

EAS

SAS

WAF EAF

SAF

MAF

Legumes/nuts

Pricesandchildren’sdietarydiversity

1 2 3 4 5Root/tuber vA fruit/veg Otherfruit DGLVeg Legumes

Logfood-specificCPR -0.06 0.01 -0.10** -0.01 0.01

LogGDPpercapita 0.10*** -0.02 0.12*** -0.10*** 0.01

R-squared 0.15 0.19 0.45 0.19 0.23N 58 58 53 52 45

6 7 8 9 10Dairy Eggs Fish Meat Fleshfood

Logfood-specificCPR -0.12** -0.15*** -0.09 -0.06 -0.11

LogGDPpercapita 0.19*** 0.07*** -0.07** 0.11*** 0.06**

R-squared 0.65 0.62 0.3 0.35 0.26N 60 53 46 55 55

Robust regressions of the consumption of different food groups against food-specific CPRs & GDP per capita (children 12-23 months old), LICs & MICs

Pricesandchildstunting

1 2 3 4 5Root/tuber vA fruit/veg Otherfruit DGLVeg Legumes

Logfood-specificCPR -0.74 1.85 -0.26 -1.54 -0.06

LogGDPp.c. -9.31*** -9.19*** -9.35*** -9.07*** -9.21***

R-squared 0.58 0.59 0.58 0.59 0.58N 106 108 105 107 91

6 7 8 9 10Dairy Eggs Fish Meat Fleshfood

Logfood-specificCPR 4.80*** 5.01** -0.83 8.25*** 8.53***

LogGDPp.c. -8.40*** -7.71*** -9.47*** -8.24*** -7.99***

R-squared 0.62 0.61 0.57 0.64 0.63N 108 103 99 108 108

Robust regressions of stunting rates against CPRs and GDP per capita (children 0-59 months old), LICs and MICs

q Firstpapertomeasurefoodpricesinacomparative,highlystandardizedcross-countryframework

q MainfindingsØ Foodpriceshighly variableacrossregionsandincomelevelsØ MostfoodsrelativelycheapinHICs,fruits&vegexceptionsØ UnhealthyfoodsexpensiveinLICs,butcheapinMICsØ ASFsmuchmoreexpensiveinLICs&MICs;esp.eggs,meatØ Dairyandeggpricesexplainchildconsumption&stunting

Conclusions

Importantpolicyimplications:Ø Foodsrichinprotein&micronutrientsareexpensiveinLICsØ Pricesstronglyassociatedwithlocalproductivitylevels,andagroecologicalconstraints(e.g.livestockdisease)

Ø Highpricesmightconstrainbehavioralinterventions,butincometransferscouldcomplementsuchinterventions

Importantresearchimplications:Ø Howdocalorie-relativefoodpricesvarywithincountries?Ø Howdocalorie-relativefoodpricesvaryovertime?Ø Whatproduction,valuechainortradeinterventionscouldmosteffectivelyreducepricesindifferentkindsofsettings?

Conclusions

• Thankyou