Therelativepriceofhealthy&unhealthyfoodsin177countries
Poverty,HealthandNutritionDivisionInternationalFoodPolicyResearchInstitute(IFPRI)
Introduction
Otherenvironment1%
Sexualabuse2% Lowphysicalactivity
2%Occupation
4%Alcohol,drug
9%
Unsafesex9%
WASH
10% MALNUTRITION(mostlynon-diet)
14%
Tobacco14%
Airpollution15%
DIETARYRISKS20%
Non-metabolicriskfactorsinthe2015GlobalBurdenofDiseaseStudy:PercentageoftotalDALYs
Introduction
Dietaryproblemsvaryacrossregionsandincomegroups:
q LowIncomeCountries(LICs):Protein-energyundernutrition,multiplemicronutrientdeficiencies;lackofhighqualityprotein(animalsourcedfoods)
q HighIncomeCountries(HICs):Excessintakeofcarbs,sugar,trans-fats,processedredmeat,sodium;lowintakeoffruit&vegandwholegrains
q MiddleIncomeCountries(MICs):Mostnowhavedoubleburdens(asdomanyLICs)
Introduction
Areovernutritionandundernutritionproblemsconnectedbyaffordabilityofhealthyandunhealthyfoods?
q MostworkonfoodpricesandnutritionhasfocusedonobesityinspecificHICs(e.g.Drewnowski etal.)
q 2studiesdocomparativeanalysis(ODI;PUREstudy)q InLICs&MICsonlyafewcontributions:
Ø Demandanalysis(own-priceelasticities)Ø Biofortificationliterature(Bouis):MNsexpensive!Ø Recentag-nutritionliteratureonIndiaandBangladesh
(Headeyetal.;Senetal)&forthcomingworkfromIANDA
q Usepricesforstandardizedfoodsin177countries,for2011q Caloriecontentisanimportantfactorinmakingfooddecisionsq Inmostcountriescerealsarethemainsourceofcaloriesq Hencewemeasurecalorie-priceratios:Costof1eggcalorieto1cerealcalorie(e.g.rice)q Capturescostofdiversifyingoutofstaplesatagivenincome
Hypotheses?H0:Lawofonepriceacrosscountries(littlepricevariation)H1_A:Foodpricesvaryalotacrosscountries
Moretrueforperishablefreshfruits&vegandASFsH1_B:Non-tradablefoodpricesinfluencedbyproductivityH1_C:Variationinfoodpricesexplainschildfeedingpatterns
Introduction
q 2011InternationalComparisonProgramdata(ICP),typicallyusedforestimatesofnationalaccounts,income&poverty
q Cost-of-living,orpurchasingpower,isattheheartofICPq Requirespricecollectionfor“standarddefinitionproducts”
Ø Incompletedataon200foodproductsin177countriesq Nationalaveragepricesarereported(novendor-leveldata)q Supplementwithnationaldatasourceswhereneededq CombinewithUSDAfoodconversiondataforcaloriecontentq Assignfoodsto17groups,measurecheapestfoodineachq Strengths:Highdegreesofstandardizationq Weaknesses:Fruit,veg,pulsesandfishareunder-populated
Data&methods
Shortname Description
Long grain rice - Parboiled Number of units: 1: Unit of measurement: Kilogram: Min: 0.5: Max: 1.2: Brand: Well known: Type: Long grain, white rice (milled rice): Packaging: Pre-packed; paper or plastic bag: Quality: High grade: Preparation: Parboiled : Share of broken rice: Very low (not more than 5%): Other features: Not enriched, not aromatic (fragrant), not sticky: Exclude: Premium rice e.g. Basmati rice, Jasmine rice
Short-grained rice Number of units: 1: Unit of measurement: Kilogram: Min: 0.5: Max: 1.2: Brand: Brandless: Type: Short grain White: Packaging: Loose or plastic foiled : Preparation: Uncooked, non-parboiled: Milling: Extra-well-milled: Share of broken rice: Below 50%: Other features: Not enriched, not aromatic (fragrant), not sticky: Exclude: Premium rice e.g. Basmati rice, Jasmine rice
White bread Number of units: 500: Unit of measurement: Gram: Min: 250: Max: 500: Brand: Not relevant: Type: White bread loaf with hard crust, not sliced: Packaging: Loose: Ingredients: Min. 90% wheat (white flour); High (first) grade flour, on a water base
Beef, Fillet Number of units: 1: Unit of measurement: Kilogram: Type: Fillet (a strip of boneless meat): Status: Chilled (refrigerated): Composition: Without bones: Cut: Middle upper part of loin (tenderloin): Fat content: No fat (trimmed)
Milk, un-skimmed Pasteurized Number of units: 1: Unit of measurement: Liter: Min: 0.8: Max: 1.5: Brand: Well known: Type: Cow; fresh, un-skimmed milk (whole milk): Packaging: Pre-packed; carton: Processing: Pasteurised; HTST (High Temperature/Short Time) treatment : Fat content: Natural (3-4%): Other features: Not fortified, not flavored: Exclude: UHT (Ultra-high temperature) milk: Comments: Specify brand, weight observed
Large size chicken eggs Number of units: 6: Unit of measurement: Piece: Min: 4: Max: 12: Brand: Not relevant: Type: From industrially bred, caged hen: Packaging: Pre-packed: Weight per piece: 63-72 g: Comments: Specify weight; size of unit observed
Palm oil Number of units: 1: Unit of measurement: Liter : Brand: Well known: Type: 100% pure, refined : Packaging: Pre-packed; plastic bottle: Other features: Industrial production: Comments: Specify brand observed
Banana, Standard Number of units: 1: Unit of measurement: Kilogram: Type: Fresh traditional yellow bananas: Packaging: Loose : Length: 14 - 18 Cm: Quality: Good quality; fresh, Intact (unbroken, unmarked) skin: Exclude: Fair trade fruits, organic fruits, Short finger local banana type: Comments: Specify whether "in-season" or "out-of-season"
Sweet Potatoes Number of units: 1: Unit of measurement: Kilogram: Type: Fresh sweet potatoes (Color varies: yellow/orange/purple or light brown): Packaging: Loose : Quality: Good quality; fresh, Intact (unbroken, unmarked) skin: Exclude: Organic vegetables, yam
Data&methods
Number of units: 1: Unit of measurement: Kilogram: Min: 0.5: Max: 1.2: Brand: Well known: Type: Long grain, white rice (milled rice): Packaging: Pre-packed; paper or plastic bag: Quality: High grade: Preparation: Parboiled : Share of broken rice: Very low (not more than 5%): Other features: Not enriched, not aromatic (fragrant), not sticky: Exclude: Premium rice e.g. Basmati rice, Jasmine rice
Data&methodsStarchystaples
Cereals(N=13) Rice(5),breadproducts(5),maizeflour,maize,tortillaRoots/tubers(N=3) Brownpotatoes,sweetpotatoes*,cassava
HealthyvegetalfoodsLegumes(N=2) Lentils(dry),mungbeans(dry)vA-richfruits/veg (N=7) Carrot,sweetpotatoes*,redpepper,grapefruit,mango,papaya,peachDGLveg.(N=3) Spinach,Lettuce,GreenCabbageOtherVeg (N=4) Cauliflower,tomato,onion,eggplantOtherfruit(N=8) Apple(2varieties),avocado,grapes,orange,lemon,watermelon,melonBabycereal(N=1) Babycereal:drymix,typicallyfortified
Animalsourcedfoods(ASFs)Milk(N=5) Pasteurizedfreshmilk(3types),condensedmilk,powderedmilkWhitemeat (N=4) Wholechicken(2types),chickenbreast,chickenlegRedmeat (N=16) Beef/veal(7),Lamb/mutton(4),Pork(4),GoatEggs(N=2) Largebrowneggs,mediumbrowneggsFish(N=5) FreshCarp,MackerelorTilapia;cannedSardinesorTuna(HIC only)
Unhealthycondiments,junkfoodOils/fats(N=9) Butter(3),sunflower,olive,palm,soybean,peanut,vegetableSugar(n=2) Whitesugar,brownsugarPotatochips(N=1) PlainsaltedpotatochipsCoca-Cola(N=1) CocaCola,bottled
Weanalyzethedatainseveralsteps1:Differencesincalorie-pricesacrossfoods®ionsØClassifycountriesintogeographicalsub-regions,butpoolHICsØFocusondifferencesinmeancalorie-pricesacrossfoodgroups,andvariationacrosscountrieswithinfoodgroups
ØThenlookatdifferencesincalorie-pricesacrossregions
2:Linkingcalorie-pricestochilddiets&stuntingØDHSdataonchildren’s24hrfoodgrouprecall:45-60countriesØUseWHOdataonprevalenceofstuntingØAllregressionscontrolforGDPpercapita
Data&methods
Pricedifferencesacrossincomegroups
0
5
10
15
20
25
PanelA:CPRsacrosslow,middleandhighincomecountries
LIC MIC HIC
F1.Population-weightedmeanCPRsbyincomelevel
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
500%
600%
700% PanelB:RatioofmeanCPRsinLICsandMICstomeanCPRsinHICs
LIC MIC
Pricedifferencesacrossincomegroups
Eggs&poultry5timesmoreexpensiveinLICs!Dairy&redmeattwiceasexpensive!
Fishrelativelycheap!
High income
E. Euro C. Asia
SouthAmerica
CentralAmerica
Small Islands
M. EastN. Africa
East Asia
South Asia
East Africa
Sth. Africa
West Africa
Central Africa
N 44 16 7 10 28 9 10 5 6 11 16 7
Plant-based foodsRoot/tuber 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.4 3.4 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.2 3.4 1.5 1.7Legumes 1.2 1.7 2.9 2.6 2.3 1.9 3.1 2.2 4.6 4.5 6.0 5.3VA-rich FVs 3.0 4.0 3.0 2.8 4.2 2.4 2.8 2.4 1.7 4.4 2.1 2.7DGL veg. 9.0 11.4 6.2 5.6 15.3 5.9 8.1 7.3 5.1 11.0 14.0 13.4Other Veg. 3.3 3.1 8.4 6.0 9.9 4.1 9.6 6.2 6.9 12.9 10.8 16.6Other fruit 1.7 1.8 1.6 1.3 3.1 2.5 3.8 3.0 2.0 4.2 3.6 3.0Baby cereal 5.0 7.7 9.6 5.0 8.8 11.2 15.3 12.1 25.9 15.5 18.0 22.6
Animal-sourced foodsDairy 2.0 2.7 2.9 2.5 2.2 2.5 3.7 4.1 4.9 6.0 4.0 4.5White meat 2.0 2.7 3.2 2.5 3.6 4.2 5.2 7.0 9.8 7.7 6.2 5.3Red meat 3.5 4.1 5.3 4.1 6.1 9.9 6.6 8.4 5.0 7.3 6.6 6.7Eggs 3.0 3.7 5.0 4.2 6.6 4.4 7.1 6.9 7.8 10.0 9.8 10.9Fish/seafood 4.3 5.2 3.4 3.8 9.4 4.8 4.7 5.4 6.2 5.5 4.4 5.1
Unhealthy processed foodsOils/fats 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.3 1.6 1.2 1.0Sugar 0.5 0.8 1.0 0.7 1.1 1.0 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.9 1.7Potato chips 2.5 4.4 7.1 5.9 7.2 4.4 4.2 4.2 8.3 10.3 10.1 12.7Coca-Cola 3.0 4.7 5.9 4.8 7.9 4.8 8.2 10.5 15.4 15.3 17.3 20.9
Pricedifferencesacrossregions
Pricedifferencesacrossregions
0.02.04.06.08.010.012.014.0
HIC SAM SIS EAS WAF SAF
Poultrymeat
0.02.04.06.08.010.012.014.0
HIC SAM MNA SAS EAF MAF
Redmeat
0.02.04.06.08.010.012.014.0
HIC
ECA
SAM
CAM
MNA
EAS
SAS
WAF EAF
SAF
MAF
Fish
0.02.04.06.08.010.012.014.0
HIC
ECA
SAM
CAM
MNA
EAS
SAS
WAF EAF
SAF
MAF
Dairy
0.02.04.06.08.010.012.014.0
HIC
ECA
SAM
CAM
MNA
EAS
SAS
WAF EAF
SAF
MAF
Eggs
0.02.04.06.08.010.012.014.0
HIC
ECA
SAM
CAM
MNA
EAS
SAS
WAF EAF
SAF
MAF
Legumes/nuts
Pricesandchildren’sdietarydiversity
1 2 3 4 5Root/tuber vA fruit/veg Otherfruit DGLVeg Legumes
Logfood-specificCPR -0.06 0.01 -0.10** -0.01 0.01
LogGDPpercapita 0.10*** -0.02 0.12*** -0.10*** 0.01
R-squared 0.15 0.19 0.45 0.19 0.23N 58 58 53 52 45
6 7 8 9 10Dairy Eggs Fish Meat Fleshfood
Logfood-specificCPR -0.12** -0.15*** -0.09 -0.06 -0.11
LogGDPpercapita 0.19*** 0.07*** -0.07** 0.11*** 0.06**
R-squared 0.65 0.62 0.3 0.35 0.26N 60 53 46 55 55
Robust regressions of the consumption of different food groups against food-specific CPRs & GDP per capita (children 12-23 months old), LICs & MICs
Pricesandchildstunting
1 2 3 4 5Root/tuber vA fruit/veg Otherfruit DGLVeg Legumes
Logfood-specificCPR -0.74 1.85 -0.26 -1.54 -0.06
LogGDPp.c. -9.31*** -9.19*** -9.35*** -9.07*** -9.21***
R-squared 0.58 0.59 0.58 0.59 0.58N 106 108 105 107 91
6 7 8 9 10Dairy Eggs Fish Meat Fleshfood
Logfood-specificCPR 4.80*** 5.01** -0.83 8.25*** 8.53***
LogGDPp.c. -8.40*** -7.71*** -9.47*** -8.24*** -7.99***
R-squared 0.62 0.61 0.57 0.64 0.63N 108 103 99 108 108
Robust regressions of stunting rates against CPRs and GDP per capita (children 0-59 months old), LICs and MICs
q Firstpapertomeasurefoodpricesinacomparative,highlystandardizedcross-countryframework
q MainfindingsØ Foodpriceshighly variableacrossregionsandincomelevelsØ MostfoodsrelativelycheapinHICs,fruits&vegexceptionsØ UnhealthyfoodsexpensiveinLICs,butcheapinMICsØ ASFsmuchmoreexpensiveinLICs&MICs;esp.eggs,meatØ Dairyandeggpricesexplainchildconsumption&stunting
Conclusions
Importantpolicyimplications:Ø FoodsrichinproteinµnutrientsareexpensiveinLICsØ Pricesstronglyassociatedwithlocalproductivitylevels,andagroecologicalconstraints(e.g.livestockdisease)
Ø Highpricesmightconstrainbehavioralinterventions,butincometransferscouldcomplementsuchinterventions
Importantresearchimplications:Ø Howdocalorie-relativefoodpricesvarywithincountries?Ø Howdocalorie-relativefoodpricesvaryovertime?Ø Whatproduction,valuechainortradeinterventionscouldmosteffectivelyreducepricesindifferentkindsofsettings?
Conclusions
• Thankyou