World Population Year

THE POPULATIONOF

EGYPT

• * ' . • " " -

THE POPULATION OF THE ARAB REPUBLIC OF EGYPT

PREPARED BY

INSTITUTE OF STATISTICALSTUDIES AM) RESEARCH

(DR. ATEF M. «3IALIFA)

(CAIRO, 1973)

• • / ' ' -

The views expressed in this publication

are these of the authors and not necessa-

rily those of either the United Nations

or the authorities concerned in the Arab

Republic of Egypt. . ' •

THE POPUUTION OF THE ARAB REPUBLIC OF EGYPT

FORWARD BY

Professor Dr. A. E. SARHANDean of the I.S.S.R.Cairo University

PREPARED BY

Dr. ATEF M. KHALIFAlecturtfr of Deaography

Director of the Population Studies UnitInstitute of Statistical Studies ( Research

ASSISTED BY

Mrs. Hoda Rachad Mr. M.G. El RoubyGraduate Assistants in Deaography

at theI.S.S.R., CAIRO UNIVERSITY

* 1 .

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

To Dr. A.E. SARHAN, the Dean of the Institute, I express ny

indeptedness for his inspiring guidance and continous support of

this project. . -\

To Dr. BINDARY, Chairman of the Board for Population and

Family Planning, Dr. A. OMRAN, Carolina Population Center, Dr. A.

NASSEF, Institute of National Planning and Dr. M. HERZE, Expert

in the Board for Family Planning, I would like to express ny grati-

tude for the time and interest they took in answering my questions

and making.data available which made ny task easier. '

ATEF H. KHALIFA

• - * ;

THE POPULATION OF ARAB REPUBLIC OF EGYPT

' CONTEXTS

Page

Chapter I

POPULATION GROWTR 1

Chapter II

COSKííiENTS OF GROWTHA. fertility 7B. Mortality 13

C. International Bijeatioa ¿7

Chapter III

P0PULA7MN COMPOSITIONA Age aa<t. S«* Composition 22a. marital Staras 73C. rioussbold and raailjr 310. education 33

Chapter IV

POPULATION DISTRIBUTION I INTERNAL MIGRATIONIat«rnal Migratory Koreaents . " Ï1iteration b«tv««a tor«rnaP3t8» *!Migration to Cairo «7Migrant! by Age and Sex ' *3

Chapter V

THE LAÍ30UR FORCELabour force by Age c.üv ;'';Í S3Labour force by Ccouc<:ic ¿sti*itics 55Labour force by Occupations S3Eaploysent Statu* 61Educational Status 6«

Chapter VI

POPULATION PROJECTIONSIntroduction 66Projection of the Total Population CIProjection» by Broad Age Croups ' 68Projection of Labour Force 72

FOREHARD

The population problem is now one of the most acute one in the

world. People who are concerned with the economic and social deve-

lopment of nations are at the same time concerned with population

growth.

U'hen CICRED-invited us to write the present monograph, we

welcomed the idea. In fact, we felt for long that the population

issue needed a systematic look within an international framework.

We also feel very happy that we aTe contributing to the World Popu-

lation Year (1974).

The present monograph was written by our.~s.taff in the Demography

Unit of the Institute of Statistical Studies*5 Research. Dr. Atef

Khalifa has presented a systematic and comprehensive view of the

population growth trends in the past and its projections in the."fu-

ture. The present monograph deals with many issues in regards to

population composition, population distribution and internal migra-

tion, the labour force, population projection, and finally economic

and social implications and policy.

Our appreciation and thanks, must go to CICRED and in particu-

lar Professor JEAN EOURGEOIS-PICHAT, Chairman, who offered us the

chance.

A.E. SARHAN, Dean-Institute of StatisticalStudies Ç Research.

Oct., 1973.

Chapter VII

ECONOMIC & SOCIAL IMPLICATIONS 5 POLICY .A. Introduction 7<tB . Economic Background . 76C. Social Background 800. Socio- Economic Implications £ Population

Growth . ' 8 3E. Basic Characteristics of the Development ;'

Plan (1973-1982) . 87F. Population Policy as an Element in Social

£ Economic Policy 89i) Family Planning "'•'".-. 89

- Population Targets (1973-1982) . 91- Family Planning Through Development 93

ii) :nternal Migration 97iii) External Migration ' 97

Appendix A . '

SOURCES OF DEMOGRAPHIC. DATA 99

Appendix B

DETAILED TABULATIONS 102

CHAPTER I

POPULATION 6RUhTh

Th« Arai» À-puSIie of Egypt (A.R.£.) occupies the Northeastern

corner of tht Arriban continent and her area is approxinately

3*6.100 square ail««, ¿ut about 95 percent of tbis area is desert.

»be desert and the Nile not only describe the physical characteris-

tics but also set the pattern of the Egyptian population living in

tbe Delta and in the narrow fertile strip of land bordering the Kile,

which is called the Valley. ihe total area under cultivation is ap-

proximately 3% of the total

The population of Egypt during ancient and aedievel times has

been variously estimated from 3 to 24 aillions. However, it is doubt-

ful that it exceeded 7 or 8 Billions at any point in those periods."

Either tbe long centuries of Haaluks* aisrule combined with the di-

version of the trade routes linking Europe with India caused popu-

lation to drop greatly to estiaated 2.S aillions by tbe end of the

yeighteenth century,' or the previous earlier estiaates were exagge-

rated.

1. C.V. Kiser.The D«aogra?:-.i. : Position of Egypt", Pea. Studiesof Selected Areas of Hapii Growth, Ji.Y.: Milbanic Men. fund, 13<*n.

2. C.H. Issawi,"Populatisa *sd Wealth in Egypt", in J. Spenglerand 0.0. Cunean (eds), Ue^ograpnic Analysis ; Selected 3eadiazs.deacon«. 111 : The Free Press, 1957.

In 16*43, an «etieate based on a census of house« showed Egypt's3/

population to be 4.5 millions. This suggests that there night

have basa an increase of roughly 2 uillions over the population of

the pr«cediai-««tttury-;—If 3o~it wàs~-dua-to the econonic growth

and the law and ordar that prevailed in Mohamad All's reign in

the first half of the nineteenth century.

. ••• fhe first national population census was taken in 1882 and the

second in 1897; census followed eveTy ten years up to 1947. Two

nore censuses have been taken.since then, one in 1960 and the other

in 1966. Table (1-1) below «hows the distribution of the total po-

pulation by sex and annual rate of increase in intercensus years.

Fron the table (1-1) we notice that the population of Egypt

has increased steadily fron about 10 to 30 aillions in a period of

-about 70 years. It can be seen that the annual rates of growth are

quite consistant, and froa 1907 to 1937 are nearly constant. A

sudden rise is observed for the period 1937-1947. Some demographers

interpreted this rise by the existesca of over-enumeration in the

• • . • ' " S /1947 census. Tha evidence provided by the censuses of 1960 and

1/1966 leads us to accept tha 1947 enumeration' as correct.' Assuaing

that the growth curve of the population of Egypt is approximately

3. Institute of National Planning,"Problems of Under-employmant in- • rural Egypt", Report A., Cairo, 1965» pp.6.

4. H.A. El Badry."Some Demographic Heasuremants for Egypt Based onStability of Census Age Distribution", tUlbank Manorial FundQuarterly. 195S, pp.26S-3GS.

5. K.S,' Khodary,"Use of Census Age Distribution for Estimating Basic.. Demographic Parameters of th« U.A.R.", in.Demographic Measures t

Population Growth in Az-ah Caof.tfiea. Cairo' Demographic Center,No.l. 1970.

' • * - l' i -

'a p«ra>ola, it waa fosad tkat tfe« 19*7 -total -&«{uU4tia» *aa «t

froa a parafai« fitted te total popalatiata _fe .¿947 , 1960 and 1966

is T«ry aaarly tba ***• a* ti« enaa«rat«d 19*7 population.~" • • ' ' • • ' * - - - ' • • •„ ' ..>.• ^ , , . r ¡

Zt sboold also b« aot«4 that allcaa conatitvt« m-*wj low per-

ccatag« «f total popnlatiea (about 0.77%, O.SSt ia 19*7 and 1960

r«*p«ctir«ly).

Tal>f 1-1

Popalatioo i« th« Canana Taara

and ita Katta Growth Is Zatarcaaaua Taara*

Taar

18821897. 1907:1917. 1927*193719»719601966

Population (000 *')':,<*£-Hala

33*5»91*S9176369705779679392

1311815176

3367»7555S7363*97120795*9575

129671*900

Jotal

£7129669

101911271«1*17815921189672600530076

Annual rat« ofgrowth

• - - ; : ; " • ;

i.«1.31.11.21.9'-•'••-

2.6

•Sourc«; Caatral Agancjr for Statistics, Stat. Yearbook. 1969, pp.1*

•• Tb* 1882 cansua vas carried oat during tn« hasardons and unstablapariod is «hieb tnara *** nationalistic aovaacnt with a strongopposition to th« nan British occopation of Egypt, furthtnor*,it was Egypt's first attsapt ia aodara tiaas to aak« aa officialcoust. It ia usuallj.regarded aa aa nnd«rcount.

6. Ibid. p».2Sl

Frojeclioaa «f tho futur« estimates «start that the population

will jusjp to about «0, »5 and 52 aillions in th« years 1975, 1980,

V4B4 1915 respect iYely."" This a«ans that the population will alaost

doubl« «vary 25_yoara. Eartillty-than aost declina or pc^.lation

laeraasa «ill pat as excessive bordea as all modernization plans.

Continuing daelina in aortality aaxea fertility daelin« aran aora

imperative ia tha short aa wall as tha long rua. Tabla (1-2) balo«

shows both rataa ia diffarant years (1906.19S8). Tha saaa data

have baaa presented graphically la Figura (Z-1).

Treat tabla (1-2) and Figure (1-1) balow, wa notice that the

birth rates ara fluctuating around tha rata of »1 or 42 par thousand

with na significant change since th« beginning of the present cen-

tury. However, a small but possibly aigaifleant decline can be no-

ticed starting ia the year 1960, when th« birth rate startad to

decline froa 13.« ia 1961 to 38.2 par thousand in 1968.

»hile tha birth rate has ahowa this relative stability, tha

death rate has rapidly declined Í- • .a 28 per thousand in the firat-

dacada of tha century to about IS par rhouaaad ia the I9601«. Tha

really sharp decline started in the late 19"»0'» («aa Figure 1);

Of course, this lad to a sharp increase in the rate of natural in-

crease which reached ITS aaziaua lavel in 1961 (28 par thousand).

7. Caatral Statistical Cgaaitt«*,"?opolaîioa 7rends is the O.A.Cairo, 1962.

Ta« Mia raae«* ft»» thl» l^eUk* •* {WS** «•«*> *«ta* i» th.

sharp dadla* la infant mortality. Ta* latter rat« .h a« dediaed

fro« 289 ia tha period 1906-1909 to about 128 j>er thousand in tbc

pariod 1955-1960. ta 1961. tha rata raaehad tha lavai of 108 per

thousand «ad tha daeliaa ia expected to coatlaaa further.

Tha apparent dadiaa ia tha latar years ia tha birth ratea is

mainly daa to tha spread of tha asa of birth control aethods and

also to th« continuing spraad of aodamixatioa aaong tha population.

Tabla 1-2

Birth and Death Satas ia Egypt (1906-1970) :-

Tears

1906-19091910-191»1915-19191920-192»192S-19291930-193»1935-193919»0-19»»19»5-19»919S0-19S*1955-1960196119621963196»196519661967196819691970

Birth rates

«3.0»2.039.a**»2.«»3.S»2.7»2.839.6»2.»»3.6»0.6»3.9»1.3»2.8»2.0»1.»-»1.039.238.236.835.6

Death Kates

' 25.526.231.6**25.826.5i '] . H26.926.823.018.717.215.817.915.»15.7l».fr15.81».216.11».»15.0

Growth Sates

- 17.515.58.2**

17.» •17.»15.7

1 - 15.912.819.02».923.»28.123.»27.»26.327.»25.225.022.122.«20.6

•Source; The period 1906-1919 ia fro" Klser. op.cit. The period1920-1960 ia fro« the O.A.K. Yearbook for Vital Statistic». Theindiridual years 1961-1969 are fro» the Tearboot at Statistical data1952-1968, Cairo 1969.

** This period is ezceptlaaeJL, they wer« the years of influenza epi-dlaie that account for the high death rate and lo» .birth rata.

. CHAPTER I I

CQKPOHENTS OF GROÎiïii

Th« -.pÄCsasat .ciia.ptec includes analysis of the components of

g'roOih, nââëly, 'fertility, oortality and international migration.

A) EEBIILIIY

1) Trend»; Since thé beginning ;-of tttte century, the crude

birth rates have been fluetuati&g «round-a relatively high

level of more.than 40 per thousand. However, a clear down-

ward trend can be noticed starting with the year 1967. The

. - crude birth rate dropped below 40 then, and gradually rea-

: •- ched its lotest level in 1972 (33.2 per thousand).

Table. (II-l) below shows •tHe1áge specific fertility •"_';.

•'-••" rate in Egypt in the period 1966-1969« , . ., •'\.,•;':':''•''

Table qi-1)

Agé Specific Fertility Rate, Crude Birth Sate

and Percentage Change in Egypt.(1966-1963 ) .

Age group

15-1920-2424-2930-3435-3940-4445-49

Total fert. rateCrude birth rateStand. B.R.

ASFR1966

42.6324.9276.0290.4215.3118.154. E

616241.241. 3,

1969

29.8211.2251.6258.5198.0110.7.50.6

555236.837.3

Absolute

-12.8-23.7-24.4-32.0-17.8"- 7.3- ».2

...- 4.4- 4.2

Change .. f Relative,.••- i •- -•

. ' • -.• - --30.1-10.1

. - 8.8. . . " , - l l . í ,- • ' •

- 8.2• .-.6.2 • .;..V- 7.6.:

'' : ...-10.7

•|..-»-i

Source: Population Studies t Research. Vol.1, No.l, 1971

* Fro« table (11-1), we notice that tbtr« are signifi-

cant changa* in fertility levais batwaao 1966 and 1969.

All ratas for aacb age group has declinad. Tor the first

age group (15-19) there is an absolute change of 12.8 which

asaos a percentage change of ever 30 percent. Furtheraor«,

there is a clear decline in all other age-specific ferti-

lity rates.

The total fertility rate has declined fro« 6162 per

thousand wosten is the age group 15-49 in 1966 to 5552 in

1969. A percentage decrease of about 10% was achieved in

the crude birth rate during the saae period. Standardising

the CBR for the changes in age composition showed the saae

results. - —

Tabla (II-2) below auaaarizas >oi« fertility indica-

tors for the period (1358-1969) i. Egypt.

Fro« table (IX-2) BÍ >jtice that the general fertility

rates show a downward tread fro» 1963 to 1969 as they de-

clined froa 184 to 1S9 per thousand which equals to a 13%

decrease. The values of the total fertility rates and

gross reproduction rates decreased steadily since 1963.

The Bean ordir of K*< hero decreased steadily since

19(6. Zt fluctuated around %.S during the preceediag period.

The M M and B*di.»ù order wer« 3.« in 1966. (see detailed

la table (1) la the

Tabl« (II-2)

Indices of Fertility in Egypt/ * " • • ' '

1958 - 1969

Year

195819591960196119621963196419651966196719681969

GFR

174183185 .189178184181179177169164159

TFK

y

5.665.95 -.6.056.175.806.015.915.845.955.70n.a.5.55

GRR

2.612.772.842.932.76 _2.872.87.2.852.882.76n.a.n.a.

'•*B©U£g«: M. Issa,"Receñí-Fertility Tienda in Egypt",•inlbé^Xility Trends and Differentials ÁP Arab CouzrEcifea,Research Memo., No.2, Cairo Demographic-Center,

. C a i r o , - 1 9 7 1 . • • ' • . ' ' . ' ' . ' • • ' - . ' '.-'•'

il) Differentials; The 1947 population census was the first

to include data on reproduction by age of mother and dura-

tion of marriage.~ El Badry attempted to utilize these

results as well as.those offered by the vital statistics;

to investigate whether there exists any fertility diffe-

•• • '• y

rentials between urban and rural population. One of the

major findings of his study was that no evidence was found

to support the hypothesis of lower fertility in urban than

in rural Egypt. El Badry in another study utilized I960

1. H.A. El Badry,"Some Aspects of Fertility in Egypt".Milbank Wem.Fund Quarterly (1965), Vol.34, pp.22-43.

2. Ibid, pp.22.

10

population census data and found that regional fertility

differences in 1960 are strikingly similar to those of3/

1947. Regarding fertility differentials by education,

it was stated that:

"It is thus perhaps well-established that with the excep-

tion of rural illiterates, fertility decreases with edu-

cation. The observed decrease among rural illiterates, if

. it is not entirely due to defficient reporting of children

ever born may well b« due to worse health and environmen-

• • vtal conditions which raise the incidence of miscarriage. "

Utilizing data from a sample survey that were collec-

ted from urban, semi-urban, aad rural areas of Egypt,

1/Rizk found that there was an inverse relationship between

socio-economic class and fertility level in urban areas

but not in rural areas, and with weak differentials in

serai-urban areas. He found that ideal number of children

5/was also inversely related to class. In other studies

. H.i.. £1 Badry,"Treads in the Coapoaents of Population ¿rowthin the Arab Countrias of the Middle East : A Survey of PresentInformation", Demography, Vol.2, i'¿55, pp.ltO-i.86

, Ibid.

5. H. airk,"Fertility Patterns in Selected Areas in. Egypt", Ph.D.dissertation, Princeton University, 1359.

:.o. ,.-.. Kizk,"Social and Psychological Factors Affecting fertility in- (.'.A*».", Journal of Marriage and Family Living, Vol. XXV, Feb.•.'.•; liA-3. Also H.A. El Badry and H. Äislt,"Rational Fertility Dlf-•'. - 'farcnces among Socio-eccseaic Croup* in th« United Arab Republic",• . united Nations World Population Conference, 1965, Vol.11, pp.' 3

il

based oa the same data, it we» found that faailj -limitation

practice is rural areas was nil» tb* frequency «f attempted

birth control increases a* the educational level increases

yboth is urban and sesti-urban areas and.finally, that the

proportion of controllers «as larger in urban than ia sesti-

urban areas in each educational level.

yAnother study by Khalifa" in 1371 showed that there

is a clear inverse relationship between »odernization and -

fertility behaviour. All variables oaaely, wife's and

husband's «dacation, faaily income» ¿usband*s «ccupation,

t

wife's status, ownership of aodern durables, and access

to «ass aedia, all contributed significantly to fertility

differentials.

It was found in 13S0, that the age-sex ecijuatcd birth

rate in urban was 16.6 against 47.2 .'or rural artas, 'tis

indicates that urban fertility ia slightly lower than rural

fertility. The differences is only 0.6 birth ?«r 1000 po-

pulation. This, index, perhaps, aeasur.es correctly th» na-

ture of rural-urban diffcreacf^ ia- Egypt.'7. Ibid, El Badry, pp.1*1

_ ,'vî« *'.'"« • •'•••: » .1. hhallfa, A.If.,"Jiffare.ntial. fertility is Egypt : A salti-*eriate

Analysis", an unpublished1 Ph.D. dissartation, L.Z.Z. Chapel Hill,

9. K.C. Zechariah,"Geographic Variations of Fertility Kates 1B ArahCountries", in op. cit., CBC, Cairo, 1971.

12

. .Table (II-3) below show« the average number of live

births by educational attainment of mother and duration

of married life in Egypt in 1960.

Fro» table (II-3) we find a significant difference

between educational groups, especially after the first

five years of marriage, these differences show that thctte

is an inverse relationship between education and fertility

level as measured by the average number of children ever- '

born. This relationship becomes stronger as duration"bf

marriage increases.

Table (II-3)

Average Humber of Lir« Births by Educational

Attainment of Mother and Duration of Harried

in Egypt (1960 Census)

EducationalAttainment

IlliterateAble to readi writeIntermediatecertificatesUniv. degree

Duration of Harried LifeLess than 5 5-9 10-19 20-29 30 or more

2.S

2.9

2. 42.1

4.8

5.0

3.62.9

6.3

6.2

4.4 -3.1

6.7

S.O

4.73.7

Total

4.2

3.7

2.1i.e

Total 2.6 4.8 6.3 6.7 4.1

•Source : C.A.P.M.A.S. Population and Development, Cairo, June1.973.

8} MORTALITY

A* indicated in chapter on«, th« erad« d u t k ritt* wmrm *•-"< ^ - . ' • • - '• • • ' • - ' . . - . - • ' . '- - J- . • '.' •-' >i '•" '" V •' £ • -!• "'- -3 ' \i ' •: ; -, •, .>. v r.-.-' :- < ; -..

cr««*iag u? tiil J9«5, taea «carted to daclXae Aum t* tb« iaprariac

af m*4lc*l ««rTiccs and poblie h««lth. , '-.*-,

Egypt. tb«B e u k« coaiid«r«d is tb« aacoad plia*« «f tb« d«»o>

jr»?aic tr«a»itioB, i.«.. dccliniag d««tb ratas vltboat baiac ac-

c0a?«Ql«d by a corresponding dadla« ia tb« «irta rat«»,' «ad baac«- . . - . , , . . . , ' . « L .... ... . ¡ - ^ i.- •_•-•• • " • j i ! ; , . v . ." - " •' '' "' '• '-.

tai* bas led to a «taady lacrea«* of th« popolatioa.

' , • . • ' • • " • • " * - • ' • . ' • . • « _ * r . . . . .

The age aad s«x partera of aortalttj caa be ebotra la tabla

aad figure (II-l) beio». (See <l«t*il«4 tail« "in

Fro« table (II-*), »«notice that there ha« beea »a obvios«

,jric!u«l drop in tb« daatb«rat«a aaoog tb« ùitféreat age jronp»

ta* period 19*5-1970 aad « further decrease« e«p«eially ia

tbe yoaagcr *ge group and particularly aacag infant* a« a reanlt of

th« increased «edical car«. pr«»enti»e bjgien«. «ad isprowd nutri-

tion for «other aad cbild; ...

The pattera of »ortality by ag« «how« tbat «ortality lavais

reaeb its ainiana la tb« ag« groap (10-1%). thea gradaallr increa-

se* tiil tb« ag« group (60-69), tbaa ri*e«.aharply tb«r«aft«r.

it usually expected, «ortality rate« for aval«* «r« relatival/

higher tbaa that for famaj.ee. Tala X« trne for alaeat all ag« groap«

ra>l« (3) ia the appendix showa th« crud« death rataa la Egjrpt froat

1930 till 1970 for «ach of Bales asd faaale«.

' Age Specific Death Rates in Egypt (1930-X970)

Years

1930• 1940194S '••1950

'.'1955--196019651970

Infant mortality -

151'; 162 ; V

•"•••'' '• , 1 5 3 : / - . •

• •"••.' . i 3 o r . '.

••'••'• . 1 0 9 '

•'•• '* 1 1 3 '

1-24

17.519.419.912.X12.210.97.28.4

25-44

8.18.6

10.15.63.13.83.13.5

45-65- . . > • • » •

18.818.3.23.7U.4.10.2

' 11.810.914.0

'64 lore

93.9115.5•105.3

90.0. 90.0 ; :103.486.1

108.0

* Sourc«; C.A.P.M.A.S.."Vital Statistics for A.R.E. fro» 1930",Cairo» July 196 8. ; •••

Measure« of Mortality Around Birth. . >

In Egypt's« ln'BOSt developing countries, the first year is

one of the periods of life in which Mortality is highest; it is

also,the period in which real iaproTeaent should be possible. At

[the beginning of ibis century the infant nortality rate reached 400

per thousand due to ill health and the spread of epidemics and po-

verty, but it decreased to 151 i¿ 1730, then to approximately 120

. in 1965-1970 and IV reached 116 in 1970. Infant mortality is pro-

- ved to be correlated with age, it has its maximum just after birth,

then it decreases rapidly in the next weeks and months.

- . ' » ' • i . - , - • • ' - • . • . ' ' • '

• beo-natal and still-birth death rates had not show« much change

fro*"1930 till 1970, as may be noticed from table (II-S), but we' ' - : " - * " " - - . • . - - - • „ • - , . * - , • * • ' • ' • - . • " • • •• '

'.;•;..+ r - ' - ; . - <••) •' % A ' . f . ; - ' * . , ' ' • -t ' : * , ' ' ' • *

. - »houid note that the data in this respect in Egypt suffer a great

deal of misreporting and undar-ragiatration.

IS

10 20 30 A0 50 60 70 BO

ne* (n-i)Specific Cesto in Egypt in

Tabla (II-5)

Vao-natal and Still-birth Death Kates

1* Egypt (1930-1970)

•

ïnri

193019«019«S19S019SS1960196S1970

leo-natal death ratea

20.118.«21.«20.220.919.322.219.9

Still-britb ratea

7.67.77.76.9 .8.57.98.37.7

«Sourc«: "Vital Statistics for A.Jt.E. fro» 1930", C.A.P.K.A.S.,Cairo. July 1968.

Xt auat alao b« noticed tbat the U f a expectancy I» increasing

for all age groupa for both aalas and faaalaa. This cas b« abovo

in Tabla (IX-6) balow.

Tab!» CII-6)

Lifa Espeetancy by Sas ctii soaa Salaetä4 Taara of Ag«*

Cenaua Taara

193719«7196913áí

Balea0

35.739.6«6.2«8.5

S

50.«SI.8SS.6S6.9

10

«7.««8.6SI.953.1

20

39.8«0.6«S.9• «.5

0

«2.1«2.5«6.2«8.5

5

S8.35«.O57.859. 3

10

«S.S50.85«.255.5

20

«6.1«3.0«5.9«7.0

«Sourc«: Ibid, C.A.P.K.A.S. t C.S.C., op.clt. O.A.'Jt., 1962.

17

;'••... Fro« tabla (II-6) above, we can see that tbe lengevity record

for females, has always-been longer than that for males. Further- -

•ore, we notice that tbe.life expectation for those who reached the

ages S or 10, and sometimes 20 is nore than that of the new born.

This is a fact, in most developing countries and the reason for it

is the higher infant mortality rates. (See details in table (5)

in Appendix).

C) • INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION .

International migration has never been an important, factor in

population growth throughout the modern areas ill'Egypt.

Data about international migration-began to be collected sys-

tematically in 1965. The available data (1965-1970) show a clear. ••

upward trend. Table (II-7) below shows emigration during the period•sr

1965-1970 for the main emigrants and their accoopaning ones.

Table (II-7)

External Migration during 1965T1970

. Year

19651966196719681969

- 1970*

Hain Emigrants

715112911521775 *31181707

Accompaning Emigrants

75412351137186125271170

Total

146923642589363656452877

^Provisional

From table (II-7), we notice that the year 1963 was the most

activa. The trond shows that increasing numbers of Egyptians pre»

far to emigrate and settle abroad. We shall concentrate on studyi,

their differentials_on tha year 1969 where most data are availably.

i) Emigrants by Age and Sex: Table (XI-8) below shows a di*

tribution of emigrants by sex and t y e in 1969.

Table (II-8)

Distribution of Emigrants in 1969 by Sex and Type*

Type

M a i n '•':.'•

Acconpaning

Total ''%

Hales

2625816

344161

Females

4931711

220439

Total

31182527

5645100

% • . . '

55.2 .44.0

100

*Sourcet Public Mobilization and Statistics, by C.A.P.H.A.S., Ko.75(

From talbe (II-8) above we notice that, in 1969, lain emi.

grants constituted a little more than one halt or total

emigrants, this means that each emigrant accompanies about

one other person on the average.

As expected most of the main emigrants are males and most

of accompanying emigrants are females. For total -nigrants

about 60% ar* nales and less than 40% are fenales.

Regarding age of etsigrants va notice that about 60% of

the total emigrants were less than 30.years old. About

19'

25% of thea were ia tb« age group 30-39, « very low per-

centage wer« «or« than M . . .

11) Eaigraats by Receiving Countries: United State«, Australia,

and Canada were la tbat order the'eost preferable coun-. . . • " ( > > . •

. tries by Egyptian cnigraats in 1969. About 99% of the

eaigraats ia 1969 chose tbese thçee' countries as their

' destiaatioa as eoapared to 90% in 1968. ,

Tbe aaia ehange is the ebasging order for these three

;: Countries. O.S.A. becaae first only in 1969, where as

Canada was always first for the previous seras years.

Australia becaae second ia 1969,-wh*r»_as it was third

during the previous strtn years.

ill) Calgraats by Xarital Status: Though »oat esigrants of

1969 «ere singles (S6%), aarried.9,«aigretita constituted

about 41% of thea. The reaainisg saall percentage of

thea (3%) were either diTorced or >«idow»<i.

I T ) Esigrants by educational Status: rrea"t«ble (11-10}

below we can notice tbat aost «ain Zgyptian eaigrants

mrm highly educated - aort than 60%'had â-uniTcrsity de-

gree or aore. Only 12.7% were unedbeäted.' The U.S.A.

has the highest share of educated eaigrants (85%), fol- .

lowed by Australia, then Canada. ïast of tbe uneducated

•migrant» go to other countries, aainly to Europe. Ther -

saae conclusions apply to accoapanying eaigrants. The '

education«! status of tbe Egyptian »¿grant was increasing

1962 and 1970 on the arerage. This evidaoced by

• I

-a

a3ou

3ja

' au

BO

3

x:u

o

o

Tot«

•b

j ;

• o

Brazil

Canada

Australia

i ,

i

t

o»

H

1968

1969

1960

1969

m(0

•H

<00»

i03>

Qualification

.

O'O

OT

O'O

OT

O'O

OT

O'O

ÛT

O'O

OT

•O'O

OT .

O'O

OT

O'O

OT

O'O

OT

O'O

OT

,

O'O

OT

O'O

OT

•o • • • - » ' •ii • ii •

o -t

n to o r>I o o n i o

I O "H M l W

« «a • H r» o« « o> <o d ' «

•-I -H

f* OB O O> Ott tA

•: ' r* •*» f* ^ io tn • n

»4 o « u» «a eo« M e . « « » , . U>

a- -i o o» a n. . • " • ' » . ' - • ' • . . '

r» t" <0 o» i» r»

9.8

13.4

27.8

27.5

28.1

28.9

Oi OD 1*1 ^4 A O

62.0

49.2

7.3

6.9

12.7

7.6

i a« i Mo c 3 a3 o -a -H . . • . .•o —• u n

• «j • a •b O *• U -<• - 3 • « e * •

A n »< M O - *M u t > a-^ %* m

•^ « M M *H CZ b H • CT • -4 OM O J S 0 0 0 3 0 <JU

O « - 4 e t > « U M n a,CL. x it aa o 3

100.0

100.0

o

0.6

0.6

11.7

16.0 :

"i22.1

20.4

61.0

29.7

a•H«sX a

•• lu ao n

b-4 e««-4u aO U

I"

00 «H

ao

«a

c

the increasing percentage of uniTeriity-educated (or

aore) emigrants fro» less tban 10t in 1962 to core than

60% in 1970.

Table (11-10)

Percent Distribution of Hain Migrants According

to Education and Country of Destination in 1969

Country

U.S.A.

Australia

Canada

Others

Total

Abore Unir.Level

S.6

1.3

1.»

3.9

UniT. Lerel

81.2

18.7

, 28.6

21.»

55.»

Others

9.9

S.3

«2.8

»6.5

25.0

Ko. for-Bal Educ.

3.3

2.7

27.2

32.1

12.7 I

J Total

! ,

' 100

| 100

1 100

100

100

•Source": C.P.h.A .3., Pop. and Se»., op. cit.

CHAPTER III

POPULATION COHPOSITIOa

A) AGE AND SEX COMPOSITION

The composition of the population according to age and tez

reTeala several ¿«portant aspects and characteristics of the cocatry.

It shows, aaong others, the size of labor force, the bordea pre-

sented by children and aged persons on the productive postions of

the population and on the government and the percentage of females

in the reprodnctir« ages. In fact categories by age aad sex have

their special needs of consumption goods and social aad aedlcal ser-

Tice of all kinds. A concentration will be aade on the analysis ef

age and sex compositions obtained froa c e m w tables. A sufficiently

large period of tiae is permitted, beginning vita the 1917 pêpaiâ=

tion censos and ending at the last coapletc censasaadertakea îâ ÎSSâr

In addition, the estiaated age-sex distribotion la 1970 will be

considered. It should be noted that censos data related to that

period suffered many deficiencies. One aast be aware of these defi-

"ciencies. It was preferred in the'present context to deal with, data

as it is taken froa adjusted census tables except for the slight

change occurring as a result of reclassification of age groapa to

be of fire years intervals in all censuses considered. - -

Regarding the relative age distribution of the total popula-

tion, we notice that the proportion of population at the yowag *g**

(0-1«) fluctuated a little during th.e period 1317-19*7. It ranged

around forty percent of the total population. The biggest change

that happened in that proportion was 1960, where it reached about

-»3 percent. However, the proportion of children under ten years

old declined regular?, though very slightly, with the exception of

1960 where the proportion of this group acquired a 3.3 percent in-

crease* above the average of the preceding censuses. This pattern

of change in the proportion of children is attributable to the steady

decline in.the infant mortality rat* and the-relative stability of

the birth rate. '-.'-..'

In 1970, we notice that the estimated proportion of children

is below that recorded- in 1960 with about one-half percent. Bat it

still has a higher level-than in other censuses. Tor further expla-

nation of this difference between the levels of 1960 and 1970, we

•ee that the proportion of children" l*ss than five years of age in.

1970 exceeds the corresponding proportion of I960*. But the amount

of decrease in the proportion of children in the aga group 5-1» was

higher than the amount of increase in the proportion of children in

the first age group (o-t). ' .

On the other hand, the proportion of population at the oldest

ages (»ixty-five years anJ over) was always decreasing during the

period 1917-1947. It «tart*d ¿z a maximum of S.2S percent and rea- .

caed a minimum of 3.10 percent, Eat the percentage of aged persons

in 1960 was higher than that of 1337 end lov?r than the corresponding

percentages in the preceeding years. In 1970, the estimated propor- .

tioa of old individuals has a value lens than those attained in the

cerneases under consideration, except of 1937 where it was at a minimum

¿•ral as aeatioaed before. Tal* lo« 1«T«1 of that proportion la

1370 «as BOStly attribut««! te> ta« drop la the proportioa of p«raoa>

la th« af« category seveaty aad ertr age categories.

That pattern of change in thai proportion of population at aadiua

ages (15-69 r«ara old) «as nearly the U M a« that taken plae« in

the proportion of popalatioa at young ages but ia opposite directions,

i.e.. ah«n tha proportion of childraa dacrcases, that adults increases

aad vice rersa. Aorm specifically, saall fluctuations ia the pro-

portion of adults'were observed daring the period 1917-lSt7. The

largest aaonat of change ia this proportion took place la I960 where

it reached a «inismm lerel of a-bont »5 percent during the whole

period 1917-19C3. The ralatira daclin« pertained in this age cate-

gory was alaost equal to the relative lacrease ia the young age ca-

tegory- ia the sa*,« year 1960. .

considering th« age coaposition estiaated for 1970, we .

find that th« proportion of individuals ia the age group »5-69 >u,

lower thaa that of 1960. Since the.aaount of decrease in th« second

age group (45-64) was lower than the aaouat of increase la the first

_ag« group (15-1*). Then the recorded level of the perceatage in

the whole age group 15-6*. ia 1970, was over the corresponding level

of 1960.

In general, if eoaid be noticed that the age coaposition of the

populatioa of Egypt*has reaained aore or less the saa« throughout

the period 1917-1970 with aiaor fluctuation«. Zt is said to have.

2S

a rather at»ble shape and this is th« cas« of all developing coun-

tríti Mita ratb«r highly constant birth ratas and rather slightly

decreasing death ratas. .

Tabla (III-l)

Psrcentagt Oistributioa by Broad

Ag« Categories and Median Age

in Egypt (1917 - 1970)

Years

191719271937194719601970

Percentage distribution0-14

•- 3 9 . w l

38.6839.2038.07»2.7542. »0

15-6*

55.71- 56.9356.5058.8353.785». 40

65 •

5.284.494.303.103.473.20

Median Age

20.3721.3821.5721.2819.3720.01

Tb« consequences of tbe Mentioned slight changes in th« relativ«

ag« distribution appeared in the levels of the median age of popu-

lation. The fluctuations in th« aedian ag« consistent with those

occurred in the relative age distribution during the sai* period.

In 1960, the aedian age was at its lowest level of 19.37 years.

That resulted «hen the proportion of children reached a maximum»

the proportion of adults reached a ainiaua, and that of agad per-

sons «as very close to ainiaua. The aedian ag« of population at

toe year 1970 did not vary auch, a slight excess in the aedian was

coaputad for 1970.

It is noteworthy that th« ratio of aales to feaalaa is alaoat

oa par under ordinary conditions, however, the nuaber of aales for

26

every hundred females, which is termed sex ratio differs in respect

to every age-group. Thus in the early age-group it is above one

hundred, on account of the bigger number of new-born sales.

When considering the relative age distribution of population

by sex in Egypt during the s u t period 1917-1970, we notice that

the proportion of female children under fifteen years of age was

always below the corresponding proportion of aale children.

As shown in tabla (III-2), the sex ratio for the young ager

group was 107 in 1960. On the other hand, the proportion of fenale

adults (15-6H years old) was higher than the corresponding propor-

tion of..aale adults. -The sex ratio was decreasing throughout the

whole period. The percentage of old voies was always higher thas

that of old nen, but they were less fluctuating than those of other

age groups. Consequently, the female population had "always a median

age orer that of male population, though the median for both sexes

has rather lowering trends throughout the period studied.

The age composition of the population in rural regions differ

from its correspondent in urban areas. Thus the proportion of the

group under 15,_is less in rural areas by 1.3% than in urban areas.

'This-difference is due to the decrease of the proportion of females

in rural areas below the urban areas,'the contrary, being with res-

pect to males. It is quite likely that the.'low proportion of females

in rural areas, in comparison with males and their low rate in com-

parison with urban areas, is due to omissions of recording in' the

27

Table (III-2)

Sex Ratios by Principal Age Croups in Egypt (1960)

Age Group*

Less than IS

1 5 - 4 4

45 - 64

£5 £ orar

All age

E G Y P TRural

109

96

91

82

100

Urban

10»

102

: 111

96

104

Total

107

98

97

86

101

census operation's. It is only a superficial decrease and nay be due

to a certain degree, to less hygienic, care for new-born females than

for males, which stay be attributed to certain regional beliefs.-It

may also be due to emigration of females to the cities for work in

household serrice.

The proportion of the 15-44 age-group is likewise~lèss~ln rural

areas than in towns, being 33.8t in urral areas against 41.47 in

towns. This is also probably due to emigration of nales of working

age fron rural areas to towns. This is compensated by the slight

decreases in tha proportion of sales to fanales in rural 'regions."1/

1. C.A.F.M.S., Population and Development, Cairo, June 1973, pp.32-33.

B) MMtITJÜ. SIXTOS ' '.'

' ' Xa Egypt toe w.in1an« legal age for marriage i» 16 for females '

and IB for malea. .The majority of females get aarried below the

age of 20 and sales between 20 and 30. The average age at marriage

of feaales «as 20.1 and for males «as 26.3 in 1969, as compared to

13.8 for females and 26.7 is 1963.

According to the 1966 census about 191 of the population of

marriageable age «ere never aarried as coapared to alaost 70% ma-

rled, 1.2% divorced and about 10% widowed. Generally speaking, t

percentage of never married males is higher than that for fenales

(2*.3% and !*.£% respectively). Se also notice that there were

more widowed (1S.S%) titan «¿dowers (2.01). Furthermore, from tal

tIII-3) we aoti.ce that the percentages of'aarried and widowed per-

sou are Ihlgmer ia rmnl tmas srbaa, while the percentage of never

married is alw>cr ia n b a -tsmm raral areas. .

Table (III-*) below shows tie percentage distribution of f«aa>e

of marriageable) age by age growps and marital status according to

the 19SS cenmms,

rroa «asle (III-*) we aotice that almost 81% of females were

aarried before, the age 34, emly 16% were never aarried. The percen-

tage of wieowJ feaales Is imcreasing by age, for woaen 60 or tore,

•ore tmam 72% w m wi«owe«.

Accordimg t» 19SS e n m , as. shown im Table (IZX-5) we find

that store, than 72% of iUitwswt* pc?iiiaiio» in. «arriagsail* age are

. Table (III-3)

Numerical and Percentage Distribution of tbe

Population of Marriageable Age by Marital Status and

Sez in Egypt in 1966

Marital

Never .Harried

Harried

Divorced

Widowed

Total

Status

HalesFemalesTotal

HalesFemalesTotal

HalesFemalesTotal

HalesFemalesTotal

HalesFemalesTotal

UrbanNumber

917940659961»

1577904

214736521551361302501

229986097283970

52809i» 1*9317502126

3141112332538961*66501

*

29.19.24.

68.64.66.

-0.1.1.

1137

100100100

29H

485

783

758

00.0

RuralNumber

8942755566261450901

329413634470716741207

3917779054

108231

97210938090

1035300

431479850203419335639

• i

20.11.15.

76.68.72.

-0.1.1.

2.18.11.

100.100.100.

7 ;i5

362

762

371

000

TotalNumber

181221512165903023805

54415015602207

11043708

52175140026192201

15001913874071537426

74553108346230

15802140

%

24.314.619.2

73.067.169.9

-0.71.71.2

2.016.59.7

100.0100.0100.0

*Source: Census Data (1960).

married as compared to 37% for those with intermediate education

and about 62% for those with university education or more. The

highest percentage of widowed is among the illiterates (12.7%).

Only 13.4% of the illiterates were never married as compared to

24%, 62%, and 37% for those who read and write, with intermediate

and university education or.more, respectively.

Table (III-4)

Percentage Distribution of Females of Marriageable

Age by Age Groups and Marital Status (1966)

Age

Less20 -30 -140 -50 -50 o

Groups

than 20

r more

Never Harried

69.7815.963.142.062.11 .2.46

Married

29.2980.8689.91 •30.0558.2123.85

Divorced

0.761.9* .1.931.841.71*1.31

Widowed

0.171.245.02

16.0537.5427. 3e

Total

100.iOICC.00ICO.C? i1C0.C.100.03100.00

Table (III-5) .

Percentage distribution of the Population of Egypt

by Marital Status (1966)

Marital Status Illiterates Í Read £ Write Interme-diate Edu-cation

UniversityEducation

Never Harried IMarried 'Divorced ' fWidowed !

13.t-72,5I.»

12.7

24.072.20.92.9

61.537.10.60.8

36.361.50.7

I! Total 100.0 100.0 1C0.0 100.0

.Egypt is characterized by relatively high rates of marriage .-.••;

and divorce. The crude marriage''raie was 9.7% on toe average ¿uring

the period 1952-70. With the exception of 1961, 1962, and 1967 in'

31

«hieb rat«« ««r« 8.6%, I,S% and 7.3% r«sp«ctiv«ly, th« rat«« rangad

between 9.1% and 10.t%. Xa tb« prec««ding tan y««rs 19*2-1951, it V*

had variad betwsea 13.1% «ad 15.6% with áa averag« of ll.S%. Tb««*

figuras show "i declining traad of aarrlag» rates in r«e«nt years.

This aay ba du« to increasing arbanlzation and adocatioa. . Tabla

(•) in tba appaadix shows sarria(• and divorce rates in Egypt during

• tha parlod 19H7-1970. -

C) HOUSEHOLD AND FAMILY " • ^

: Xa Egypt, th« aal« isrecognisad» wbar« th« r«*f«r«nt of linaag«

tracing is patrilinaal. It 1* conos, to soa« axtaat that nocl«ar

; faailias aaitc along tb« husband's faaily of oriantatloa. Patri- :

locality,,though diminishing, is still eoaaon, tboagh ncoloeality

£/la »or« prevalent to day in Egypt."* ;,_ - -

According to « saapl« aojrv«ry . la 1973, it was found that '

'. «xt«nd«d faailia« constitut« only 9% of th« .Egyptian faaill««. -

r.'_ Oa th« iTtrifi, t aothar «ads h«r reproductiva period by 6.94%

•T« bora alive children. Th« faaily tends to b« nuclear and tb«

nuaber of children «till alive tends to decrease as.the education

of «ife increases. ' (Table (10) la th« Appendix).

2. Khalifa, A.•.."Statua of «oaea la «elation to Fertility andraaUy Planning in Egypt", ICSCS, Cairo, 1973, (aaaograph).

3 . i " • • ' • ' ' ; : ' ^ ~ ; ' ' ^ ~ ' b

32

Table (III-6) below shows the average family size and the ave-

rage household size in some selected areas in Egypt.

Table (III-6)

Average for.Family and Household Sizes

in Egypt (1966)*

Areas

MetropolitanUpper EgyptLower EgyptFrontier Gov.,

Total .

Aver, family size

5.095.00 . •5.67

:: 9.00

5.28 <

Aver, household size

5.454.60 •

'.. - . 5.568.80

5 . 1 6 " : •••,'-'-

*Source: A.R.E. Annual Statistics for 1970, Cairo 1970. '"

According to 1960 census we find that about 34% of households were

small {3 or less persons) while about 41% of the households were

ranging between 4 to 6 persons, only 26% of.households were 7 or

more persons. In rural areas 31% of the households were large as

compared to 31% of the snail households. - -• •

Table (III-7)

Distribution of Households According to

Size in Egypt I960

.Size

1 - 34 - 67 or tore

. Urban

33.540.526.0 .

Rural

30.6 . '38.331.1

33

D) EDUCATION .

Education. 1* en« of the sost important indicts for tbe progress

and oodaraization o* a society. Most developing countries suffer

fros the fact tbat • Sigb. proportion of tb« population is illite-

rate. In Egypt, the situation is gradually isproTing. Table

(II1-S) below shows the trends of the proportion of illiterates

since 1937 census by sex.

Table (III-S)

Percentage of Illitrates to Total Population

10 Tears sad Ovtr

Census Tear

193719*71960191,6

Teaalcs Iota:

s*S3-79 hi

Fro« table (III-8), it is clear that illiteracy ¿s far sore pré-

valant a«ong feaales than s&ocg aales througaout ta« vaal«_period

1937-1966. While alaost 91% of feaales «ere Illiterates according

to 1937 census, only 76% of Bales «ere illiterates. Tbe downward

trend of the proportion of illiterates is faster among sales than

asong fesalee, during tbe 30 years period, illiteracy dcerea-sea

fro» 76\ to S3% asong sales, wtili it decreased fro« 9*% to 79%

aaong fesales» In general, the illiteracy rate is very high in

Egypt and it I» >«are S-j»«re anoog f«--tl*a xhaa «song sales.

'.~*'f *,*'•' '

'• •'• T W " •'.

If is also eridest that the rate of illiteracy is lower In urban

areas tbaa in rural caes. The rate of illiteracy in urban areas

vas about '*S% in i960, while it was as high as 60% in rural areas.

Egypt now goes through aa educational rerolutioo in rejard to

au33êr of stuiects ecroilsd or Busier oí schools. la ahoat S years

(1903-óé, 1370-71) 'the oilier o5 papils ia all the stages cf educa-

tion iicreised at a rite ef 110*. However, th* lacrease íc the

school esrollseat vas Dot ¿ccocpanied by a siailar lacrease in the '

number of teachers. Ve fiad that the nutier of pupils per taacher

his a tesdesc; to raise up. Tor e«a=?ie, for preparatory schools

this index vas 21 in I955-S6 against 3C in 1973-71. Finales do

enrol in all îdacatioa stages ic increasing proportions.

-, • . ,_ XHAPTCB |V :-j

' . POPULATION DISTRIBUTION AND 1KTCRML Ht6RATlON '• ; ; :

" . •• ' •";' ." ' ' '" • ' '•••••'•• • : •••.'.•".• \ § i f t

Internal migration cam be defined as tit« ««feiiitjr of citizens : : -'

from a certain geographical unit tg—another within.the boundarie»->'U-'.'-."

of the country, seeking for permanent residence in the new localityt'''*•

This pattern of mobility affects to a great extent population

growth, its age and sex composition, its social, economic and cul-

tural structure and all other demographic characteristics of that

population» The-effects of internal migration on both the expel-

ling and the attracting localities completely depend upon the cha-

racteristics of the migrants themselves. In the present chapter

a description of population distribution and internal migration it

Egypt will presented. In addition description of the past and

present trends in internal migration will be briefed.

Available data show that population growth has not bees eren i;

different geographical areas in Egypt. On the contrary, regional

growth rates raried markedly resulting in a significant amount of

population redistribution during this century. This can be seen

from the regional population distribution. For instance, the pro-

portionate share of lower Egypt increased from 59 to 64 percent of

the total population between 1927 and 1966. The corresponding fi--«

gurea of Upper Egypt are 46 and 41 percent,respectively. The small

share of frontier governorates increased from 0.6 to 1.1 percent.

However, it may be added that within lower Egypt, the share of ur-

ban governorates Increased from 13 to 23 percent, whereas the share

36.

of non-urban go»«rnorates of the r«gion decreased fron about *7 to

11 percent during the sama.period. Table (IT-1) shows tie increase

io urban and rural population in census years 1907-1966,

Table (IV-1)

Population in Urban and Rural

Areas in £¿ypt in Census Tears 1907-1966

Tears

13071317192719371947136DI960

Urban Population

212500026X0600371584343320336202316965109712036787

X

1921ÎS283337«a

Rural Population

90S8000100297001035743611429001126035101612036817687312

t

81797472676360

Teal

i:i33o;o.;Ô7OJCO:-O8327S531133^

: 3OSS:Ó. ;77i4;;:i72K03S

Fro« tabl« (IV-X) we notice the upuari trend of urb'ac population

fron 19% in 1307 to about 40\ in 1966. A higher proport- -n of ziit

increase is in metropolitan areas, and is particular Cilrj aad Ale-

xandria. In 1327, Cairo's share of the total population xas 7.8%

it increased gradually to reach X%\ la 1966. Siailarly, llexacdria'

share increased fron *.2t in 1927 to 6.C* in 1966. (See taile (2)

in Appendix for details).

Taking 1907 as « base * 100 «e find thatCairo's sis« ii 157 ii

1927 and S17 la 1966. Similarly, Alezandri« increased fro« 152 ir,

1927 to S09 in 1366. As saovn la taile (I7-2), the increase ia

other fovernorates «a* aoderate. In Sharki* ia Lower Ep-t, it

bacas« only 248 In 1966, «ad Manía (Uppar Egypt) bec»»« 261 in

Tai« shows a sore Moderate increase ti coapared to that in Metro-

politan areas. Tfc« aain reason is internal Migration fro« rural to

urban areas, and in particular to the two aain Metropolitan areas

of Cairo and Alaxaadria.

Table (IV-2)

Indices of Population Size in CAÍTO, Alexandria and

soae Selected GoTernorates in Egypt in Census

Tear (1937-1966)

Gsvcrnorates

CairoAlexandriaLover Egypt:

CakahliaSharxia

upper Egypt:HeniaQena

Total Egypt

1927

127162

123 '119

128117

126

19*7

308266

161151

1601*3

169

1960

«9«429

230213

239175

231

1966

617509

2662*8

261 .191

267

*S_our*ej C.A.P..H.A.S., Pop, and D«T., op. cit.

Tb'us. Cairo and Alexandria's growth was mora than twice the

national growth. This acans that Cairo, which is about 0.6t of

the total inhabited area, has aore than 14% of the population,

while the two largest governorate of Sharkia (13.2*) and Bebara

(12.91) contain only 7.1 and 6.6t of the total population re«p«c-

tirely.

Metropolitan growth cas then be shown through the very high po-

38

pulatioQ densities. The population density in Cairo in 1971 was

about 6584 per square kilometer. This density, increased gradually

to 19594 per square kilometer in 1966 which constitutes one of the

highest densities in_the world.—(See table (13) in Appendix). The

next highest density is Alexandria which had.a density of 6221 per

square kilometer in 1966. Host of the other governorates had a den-

sity below one thousand. The total population density in Egypt had

almost doubled from 410 in 19 27 to 845 in 1966.

According to 1960 census data, approximately 22% of the total

population live in cities of 100,000 and over. Egypt is dominated,

in teros of the concentration of her population, by a few large ci-

ties are growing at a faster rate than the smaller ones.

From table (11) in-Appendix, we see that during the decade 1927-

1937, the average annual increase of the metropolitan areas .was

twice as large as that of the provincial capitals.(20,000 and,over.)

of the North, and South. They are 50% higher than those of Kiddle

Egypt. During the period 1947-1960 the superiority of the increase

in population of the metropolises was 80% greater than that of mid-

dle and north Egypt and 64% greater than that of south Egypt's pro-

vincial capitals. (See Figure A-2 in Appendix).

From the above discussion we conclude that the metropolitan

areas are the centers of immigration. Although these large cities,

therefore, do offer so many purely economic advantages, the attrac-

tive power of them lies in their capacity to provide jobs.

»!,

The total aaount of population redistribution can ba aeasured

by tha su« of positive or negative diffaranca between tha actual

sisa of population for each govenorate and the expected size if •>'•

the governorate experience the aaaa rate of growtib at''the* whole- , ' . ' ; . " • • * > • . ' ' . • * . * •> •

population at a final data. The calculated aaouatr between 1927 and' • . . • ' . ' • ' - • . . ' • . • > : • > • • . - • • :

1966 was about 3,(31,000. The urban governoratea shared with about• " • • • ' • '' . . - - . ' .'..'•' v - V . .- • -

2,927,000 out of this total. Tha rural goveraorates -of tower and

Opper Egypt showed negative differences of 1,279,00 and 1,718,000

respectively. Tha frontier governoratea showed a positive diffe-

rence of 151,000. it ia worth acntioning that population redistri-

bution is a function of differantiala in tha rates of .'natural in-

crease of the different geographical areaa ia a given society as '

wall aa the aoveaent of population. Ia Egypt, the regional diffe-

rentials in the rates of natural increase are iacoacluaive ia a aanner

that they do not auch expíala tha problaa. la addition, interna-

tional aigratioa ia of ainor affect on tha Egyptian population where

it la considered a closed population. Therefore it is the internal

aigration that baa tha avajor effect on populatioc redistribution in

t h a c o u a t r y ' . ' - . ' • •.•'.;,.•, • ' • ; '

INTERNAL MIGRATORY MOVEMENTS

There are aaay different types of internal aoveaeats ia Egypt..' -•'" •.::••. • . • ••'•' - ' • ' • I f :*'--: ' - Í Í - .

These aoveaeats aay take tha following foraa:~ ] •

1. O.I., Econoaie and Social Council, Economic Coaaissioa for Africa, :,.";;vS/'••..',/. yppnlatioa DiatributioB and Internal aigration and Jrbaaltatioa ' :\_]:'<ï%\'••'•'ia Africa, i.962, pp. 10-20 . ! ! . . • . r< ' ' ' •':;7-ír.j-;:

l._ The movements of nomads: The seasonal movements of tribes li-

ving in arid or semi-arid areas. Such movements are noticed among

the Arab Bedouins in the Eastern and Western deserts.

2. Migration ta¿ :d on labor contracts; This type of movement is

sometimes sponsored by the responsible authorities, but in the majo-

rity of cases, they are outside any forra of control.

3. Migration from rural to urban areas: This type of migration

involves those working in the traditional sector of family and sub-

sistence^ agriculture and handicrafts, wno move to the modern sec-

tor of.organized agriculture, commerce and industry. It covers a

big proportion of the population. The fact that a large prou; in

the traditional sector is unemployed encourages migration on a big

scale.' Thi3 type of migration in Egypt- can be considered as the

main fora of migration.

4t Hoveaients of temporary and seasonal nature; Ta a considerable

extent.'/ they represent an adjustment of labor tc tue unequal disXri-

butioncf r jP ul a t i a o i n relation to resources. Toe volume of these

movements is vaguely known, but their direction is mainly- from sub-

sistente rural areas to cash-crop ¿feas, from rural areas to urban

areas as temporary worker!» during Th^ seasons wfcere there is little

to do or. the land.'

S. Movements between and within urban areas.- This type of aovement

is very hard to measure, r.owev^r I* occurs sometimes on a big scale.

especially short distance r;. J " . <Tthin the saae uetropolitan area.* ' . - . . • ' • • ' • ' . . - - . , ' ' . ' ' • * • • > - • ' ' '

Actually, the migration from r-tcL -.0 urban areas is the most

iaportant type, not only because it represents a large proportion

of the population, but also because of its serious implications on

population distribution and econoaic problems in the country.

Nowadays in Egypt there is a pronounced tendency toward a

large proportion of the population to concentrate in few big cities.. 2/

This phenomenon has been termed by Caris and Golden over-urbani-

zation. Egypt, judged by her industrial employment, is an over-

urbanized country, i.e., the size of labor force ec^ised in the in-

dustrial sector aal related activities is relatively aasll, as con-1/

pared to western countries in their early growth period.

MIGRATION BETWEEN GOVERNORATES V

Although data on migration based on a complete registration sys-

tem are not available for Egypt, we shall use the scanty and limited

information available from the censuses of population of 1927, 1937,

1947, and I960. Data were collected in these censuses on movements

of population during the previous tea years by place of birth and

place of residence. Out-cigrants are considered those enumerated

outside the governmorate of birth, while in-imigrants are those

who were born outside the region of enumeration.

2. Sf.-iis, K. i Golden, H., "Urbanization and the Development of preindustrial Areas," Cities and Societies (ed. Ly P. ..oit and A.Peirs) Glenese, 111., lae Free Press, (1957), pp.131.

3. I.N.P.C., op. cit. Report A, pp.16-17.

k. El-Kammash, Bagdi, Economic Development and Planning in Egypt,Frederifc A. Praeger, H.Ï., 1968.

It should b« pointed eat in this connection, that th« direct

•etboda based on the use of a sample or on.the registered popula-

tion data, has never been used in Egypt.

According to this aethod, it could be said that a Migrant is

the person residing in a place . different froa the place of birth.

Accordingly, by using the data of the population census 1960, we

can get table (IT-3). Table (IV-3) shows the computation proce-

dures and the net migration and its percentage. Index of nigfation

(last column) is the percentage of net aigration to the total nua-

ber of migrants (in and out) for each particular governorat«; it

is a measure oí the efficiency of aigration.

The following findings can be drawn:

1. The pull govcrnorates are the metropolitan or urban governorates,

or at least those with more job opportunities. -

2. The push governorates are predominantly rural, with less job op-

portunities.

3. Cairo is the largest receirer of the migrants (30.7% net aigra-

tion), and Menofia in North Egypt loses the aast (~25.3% net migra-

tion).

4. The most mobile governorate is Aswan with only -11.5% net migra-

tion, but about 1*»% and 25% in-and out-migration respectlrely. '

5. One exception is the Red Sea goTernorate with about »7% net mi-

gration.. The reason is the great job opportunities in this new

. governorate especially in aining and eil extraction.

43;

Table (IY-3)

Internal Migration iatwecn Gorernorates

According to 1960 Population Census

Governorate

1.2.3.4.5.6.7.e.9.

10.il.12.13.14.IS.16.17.18.19.20.21.22.23.24.25.

CairoAlexandriaPort-SaidIsmailiaSuezDanietDakaliya 'SharkiyaQulyubiaKafr ElsheikhGharbyaHenufiaBeheraGizaBeni SuefFayuDHinyaAsyutSouhageKena.

•="JtsvanRed SeaKew ValleyHatroubSinai

Pop.

31

21

111

• 1

1111

34851624538"»2033870148199889737153476853368598395603295783513852533

10349

Present

779234318115610962883798055019212953679418832163311588858358350452932453769

Net-MigrationSize

1 027240438473

- 12- 164- 112- 33

3- 128- 340- 19

20 3- 43- 36- 29- 147- 233- 186- 44

11- 14- 20

2

742319680037809962362310820260051177432188509203277997468803100941694125278

3015172936

- 3- 8- "6- 3

0- 7- 25- 1

15- 5- 4- 1- 11- 14.- 13.- 11.

*6.- 43.- 19.

4.

%

.7

.9

.8

.6

.2

.3

.2

.2

.4

.3

.s-

.3

.1

.1

.0

.39.17959455

Index

68.054.539.459.364.8

- 14.3- 42.6- 42.6- 14.3

2.8- 36.7- 81.1- 7.952.2

- 39.6- 40.1- 22.6- 65.3- 75.0r- 74.6- 29.166.8

- 82.3- 51.0

6.8

In general, fron Table IY-3, two nain directions of migration

are clear. Tbe first is fron rural to urban governorates and the

second is from where low to high job opportunities can be. (Sea

Figure A-3 in Appendix).

Another study on internal migration movement,in Egypt in the

period 1960-1970 revealed several important facts, first, for the

period 1960-1966,'the more attracting areas in Egypt were the ur-

' ban governorates of Cairo, Giza, Alexandria, Suez, Port Said and

Ismalia. The reason is that these governorates are characterized

by a large degree of development in industry and public services.

On the other hand, the more pushing governorates are those of Henou-

fia, Sohage, Assiut and Xena. Henoufia governorate is considered

as the first pushing one, about 20 percent of births of the governo-

rate do not live in it. The number of out-aigrants froa Henoufia

to Cairo govarnorata is about two aillions. The factors behind such

position of Henoufia are (1) its high population density, (2) the. •_ 5 ... • •

pattern of land ownership only TÏ feddan on the average caused the

•• aigration of agricultural aanpower, (3) the high educational level

caused by the aigration of students to other governorates-particu-

larly to Cairo. Another example is the case of Aswan which has — —

changed froa a sending area in 1960, to a receiving one in 1966. ^

That aay be attributed to the construction of High Das.

Vhen estimating the Internal migration in Egypt froa 1966 to

1970, OB the basis of survival ratio method, we notice the following-

The governorates of Cairo, Alexandria and Giza are still considered

the aost attracting c&«a. Tho governorates of Port Said, Suez

and Isaailia became sending sr«as as a result'of the policy of com-

pulsory migration after the agi&ssion of 1967. It follows that

aost of the governorstes of Lower Egypt, except Henoufia, became

receiving areas. Henoufia governorate is still the first among the

sending areas, concealing canal governorates owing to their special

conditions. Fnrtheraore, nost governorates of Upper Egypt a n »till

considered «s sending areas except Giza and Aswan gorernoratet as

shown in table (IV-») below. (See details in tables (13) and (14)

in Appendix). . • .

. ' • . . ' ••'-."'••'" T a b l e ( I T - » ) '-\ /.' ' : • :- •.-•'.•

Population MoTcaent in Keceiring and Sending

GoTemorates in 1966 Census

Gorernorate-

1. ReceivingGov.

CairoGizaAlexandriaSuezPort SaidIsaaiji«

2. Sending~ Go».

•^ MeaoufiaSobagKenaAssiut

In-nigraats

1171228300713«019011005366201»92886

258181936022286290^

Out-aigrants

-, ' ..

•',-.,'2M63S'67786SS58215S773279626871

3557832E05021376*8176323

Total ai-gration

1*25 863368499»9748311611390810

119757

. 38160127986220993»205»17

Set ai-gration

- , '•

9365932329273063198493929218

' 56015;

• - - . - .

-329965-2»11»2-165362-147229

Migra-tionindex

.66

.63

.62 .• . 7 3 .

.31

.55

' ; ' • ' • • * .

-.87-.86-.79 --.72

0u* to tbe lack of data available, it is difficult to apply

any of the direct.aethods of Measuring aigration between rural and

urban areas in Egypt. Hoverer, toe balancing equation aethod can

be applied. We can set the following balancing equation: ''.'

5. Assuming that international aigration is négligeable. . ;

Urbaa (er rural) population la 1960 «lap» th« urbaa (or rural)

population la 19»7 «goal« th« natural lacreas« la ta« orbaa (or

rural) popalatloo plu« or aious th* net aigratioa.

By usine ta« urbaa population, the «quatioa gew« th« figure

of 957,627 «hieb constitutes th« »is« of aigratioa t£ urban araaa.

Altrougn by ualng rural population, th« flgar« v*m 773,630 which

constitutes th« *iz« of «igratloa fro« rural areas.

Th« Inequality of th«»« figuras aay b« da« to lack of registra-

tion in th« data of the Tital statistics and other accuaulatad er-

ror».

In general, it could b« said that a larg« seal« aigratioa fro«

rural to urban areas during the pariod 19H7-1960 aaounted to between

th«frange of tbre« quarters to on« •illion persons. (See ricura A-«

in Appendix).

Table (IV-5) below shows a suaaary of rural to ubaa net aigra-

tlon in Egypt during th« period 1960-1970.

Table (IV-5)

Met Internal Migration froa Rural to Urban

in Egypt during the Periods 1960-1965 and 1965-1970

Pariod(003)

1960 - 196S1965 - 1970

Males

- 381- 208

feaalea

- 370- 181

Total

- 7S1- 389

»7

The table shows that net aigration in ;the first firs, years in

the decade 1960-1970 «as almost double that in the second five

y e a r s . ' • . ' • - . . ' '

MIGRATION TO CAIRO

Ordinarily« the primate city is at least twice as large and

more than twice as significant as the second aps.t important city.

According to this, to definition, Cairo can be considered as Egypt's

private city. According to 1960 population census, Cairo am'- the

largest city has lore than 3.* Billion persons. Alexandria, ta*

second largest has about 1.5 Billion people, which is less than en*

half of Cairo's population. -

r > . - • . •

As will be shown in chapter »«Ten, Cairo* swallows Up in<r«*ta«nt.

absorbs labor force, dominâtes the cultural pattern, has a del«»

teriaua-effect on the developnent of otbtr areas and tends to hare

, •» high consaaptioa rate as coapared with production rate. • . •

"\ As shown before, Cairo absorbs moat of the migrants. Although

Cairo as a big city does not in fact offer so many purely economic

advantages, its attractire power lies in its capacity to proride .

jobs. The metropolises grow aost rapidly when job opportunities

greatest. There is an unusual influx into Cairo because it renders

more available service employment in connection with coaaerce.

6. Thoalinson, R. Population Dynamics, Random House, V.Y., 1960

tourism and «s a center of all government administrativ« ministries.

Host of the industrial centers are located within its boundaries or

in its suburbs. Moreover, charity and welfare organizations are

more accessable in the cities than in the countryside.

As indicated earlier about 31% of Cairo's population.are mi-

grants and the percentage of the in-migration far exceeds to per-

centage of out-migration, 37.9% and 7.2% respectively.

We have concluded before that the most pushing governor«« is

Menoufia which contributes most to Cairo's population. It contri-

buted about 18V of the total migrants to Cairo, up to 1960.

There rural migrants to Cairo are drawn from two extreme types.

Abu-Lughod has distinguished these, two types as followst

1. Qualitively the cream but numerically the less slgnifleant, eon-

slits of bright youths who migrate in search of education or wider

opportunities. These hare both the drive and the facility for rapid

assimilation into the culture of the city.

Ï. The second type are draws primarily from the have-not's of the

village. Numerically dooint.=t, they are as much driven fro« the

village by dearth of las', tnd ->?portunityas they are attracted to7/

the city."

These migrants settle in particular areas. There are usually

some social agencies is Cairo to hslp assimilate their members.

7. Janit Abu-Lughed,"Migrant Adjustment to City tifi! The EgyptianCase", Amer. Journal of S o c . yol. XVII, «o.l, July 1961, pp.22-93.

- V • - - ' • " • - . i. f ; • • • - • • • - , ' • " -

Abu-Loghed mentioned that there are rast quarters within the mosaic

of Cairo where, physically and socially, the way of life and charac-• ' - • . • • • • - . • • 8 / . • - . -:

teristic3 of residents reseable rural Egypt." .•••". - • V:"'

These previously mentioned factors explain why soae sociolo- "- , :

gists consider aigration to Cairo as the process of ruralization

of the city.

The typical aigrant, to Cairo as elsewhere, is a yonog, unskilled

aale, whose first contact in the city is often with .a friend or rf

lative froa his original village, with whom he nay even spend the

first nights. . " • .

MIGRANTS BY AGE AND SEX-

When the attention is directed to the study of net aigration

by ag* and sex, we conclude that for urban governorates the larges

nuabers of aigrant aales are those in the groups 0-9, 20-29, and

30-39 after which they decrease with the growing of age. Host of

aale aigraats in the first age group 0-9 are children who accoapany

their parents or those who go to cities for house serving. Host of

aigrants in the age group 10-19 are students and the rest are those

coaing froa rural areas seeking work. The aigrants in the ages

20-30 ara the basic aanpower migrating froa rural areas, (see tails

16 in Appeadix). Regarding fonales, we notice that aost of the

feaale aigrants are in the age group 20-29, often representing the

8. Ibid, pp. 25.

M1T«S of saie aigrant». Feaale »igrant» in the age group 10-19 •'

art either wires of aale algraat» or work in house-serving.

For nou-urban governorates, Giza is thé only attracting gover-

Dorat« for sale aigrants in all ¿ J M , a total of about 22,600. The

rast of non-urban goTernorates are considered a* sending areas of

• ale Migrants, at the top are the governorates of Menia, Henoufia,

K*sa and Beni-Suef. Some of the goTernorates showed a ntt aigra-

tioa in the age group 20-t9 auch .a* Kalyoubia and Behira while Sohag

attracted »ale algrant» in the ages less than twenty. The gorerno-

rates of Sharkia, K*lyoubia, Behira and Assiut attracted feaales

•igrants in the age group 20-H9. The rest or the goT*rnorates showed

a negative net Migration.

- V ¡ C H A P T E R Y ;

.•';'.' ' " . THE LABOUR FORCE •

The objectives of the present chapter Is to investigate acti-

vity rates in Egypt up to latest available date. Furthermore, we

intend to study differentials in activity rates by age, sex, rural/

urban, economic activities, occupations, and educational status.

The background data for this chapter were obtained fro» popula-

tion censuses 1937, 19%7. 1960 and 1966. In addition, labor force

saaple surreys dati were available to ns.

i

The Egyptian labor force gr«w. froa about 5.8 aillions in 1937

to 7.8 aillions*in 1960, then to 8.2 aillions in 1966. This repre-

sents an average exponential rate of growth of about'1.27 per yearj

The contribution of population growth to the changing sise of the

labor force overshadowed that attributable to the change in socio-

econoalc factors reflected by the rate of participation in econoaic

activities. In fact, the latter had a negative effect during the

1937-1960 period. The proportion of the total population in the

labor force is relatively lov, iaplylng a heavy load of dependency.

A priaary factor in this regard is the young age composition of the

population resulting froa the high levels of fertility.

The teapo of growth of the labor fore« varied in the two inter-

censal periods and for each sex. For instance-, the overall annual

rate of growth decreased froa 1.341 in the iarercessal period (1937-

19*7) to 1.22% in the following period (19*7-1960). The cór'rVspon-

ding rat«s-y«r« 1.29% and ,1.^9% fór.oíales, and 1.72V and 1.29% for

f«aal*c respectively. •'•'•'"'•••". ..-';'" •;

. Th« crud« activity frates decreased from thelevel of 36.51 in

1937 to 30.1% in 1960,:to.:26.41 in 1966 resulting in increase in

the average number of dependents per 100 of -economically active

persons, i.e. dependency;ratio, increased fron 117 to 232 then to

281 during the same period. The crude activity rate remained cons-

tant during the period 1966-1970. Moreover, the decline in acti-

vity rate was faster between 1947 and 1960 than in the preceding

lntercensal periods, this may be seen from the following täöle

Table (V-l)

\ Crude Activity Rates by Sex-

Tears

193719^719601966

Crude activity rates (%) . -males

65.162.855.252.2

females

7.97.8 '*.S3.6

both sexes

36.535.030.12 6 . <i

Table (V-2) below shows the activity rates in different regions

of Egypt in May 1970.

From table (V-2).we notice that total activity rates are about

the same in different regions in Egypt. Though, the activity rates

of females are hgiher in metropolitan and urban areas than in rural

areas or governorate in Lower or Upper Egypt. One clear observation

is the very low participation rates for fe«*les<

s;

Table (Y-2)

Percentage of Labour Force to Total

Population by Regions in Egypt (1970 Hay)

Region

CairoAlexandriaTotal Urban Gov'sLower EgyptUpper EgyptAll Areas

Bales

43.545.644.149.053.349.4

Females

5.86.15.93.22.63.6

Total

24.425.624.725.928.0 -26.4

The crude activity rate is simply the weighted average of age

specific activity rates,, where the proportions of the total popula-

tion in different age groups are used as weights. Hence, the study

of the age profile of activity rates and the trends of its compo-

nents provides:further insights and perhaps partial explanation of

the level and trends of crude activity rate.

Age patterns of activity for Egyptian nales and females for

the census years between 1937 and 1966 show in general, certain

degree of similarity. For males, the rates are lowest at young

ages, -increase rapidly during adulthood to reach a maximum level,

and then decline slowly at first then faster at the old ages. The

rates for females, on the other hand, increase in the teens, de-

cline in the twenties, increase in the thirties and forties, and

'finally decline again at the old ages.

LABOUR FORCE BY AGE AND SEX: (1960-1969)

Table (V-3) below shows the age-sex activity rates for the

perisd 1980-1969.

Table (V-3)

Age-Sex Specific Activity Rate« in Egypt

---'- (1960-1969)

Age Groups

6-1112-1»1S-1920-2930-3940-49SO-5960-6165 -t _over

CAR (6 «ovar)

1960Malas

17.829.268.089.897.297.294.984.762.2

51.6

Feaales

6.78.89.S6.04.5».93.93.91.9

3.6

1969Hale«

10.939.357.0 ,86.398.89É..696.285.163.7

51.6

faaales

2.0" 5.35.27.05.ó4.54.14.12.0

3.6

Tram tabla (V-3), ve notic« tb« T«ry participation rates

of feaales in all age groups. The najority of Egyptian labour^force

are aales. Ve notice also, tfcat age specific aale activity .

rates reach * aaxiaua in the aiddle ages (20-49) and decrease sharply

towards the Margins. . -

Rates for age group (6-11) «re decreasing, and this aay aeas

that Egypt is developign to a large extent in the field of education

•iace enrollment of pupils in primary education deteraines the par-

ticipatloa rara in labour force for this age group. For ages 65

y«*r» and orí;, the rates increased through fhe a. '«* fro« 62.2%

la 19(0 t« 63.7% la 1969. As will b'e^ea, tal« lacroso« it

evident la rural areas la agricultural»sector, tasse rata* v

•3.3% la rural and 3t.7t la urbaa la 1969, and they w«r« 71.Cl

rural And.»8.9% la urban ar«aa la 1966. That increase la rural

arca.« »ay b« attrlbutad te Migration. £t yo'uág'«aies froa rural «.

leaving « higher proportion of old. parabas la far*«, and icflatj

this category la rural areas.

It should be noted that the l«rcls of age-specific activity

rates for Egyptian aalea are significantly higher than these of .

dustrialised and seui-industriliased coun.tri^s both around toe se...

tiaes. On tbe contrary, the feaala rates are aoong the lowest.

A suaaary of the labour force treads In tbe sixties is »bow-

in the following table.

LABOUR FORCE BY ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES

Tbe agricultural sector has always bees the'dominating econo-

mic activity in Egypt. About 7o% of the labour force was engagea

in agriculture according to tbe 1937 cenaus data. The proportion

of tbe agricultural labour force has been gradually decreasing sic;;

then. It reached about 62% la 19*7 and declined to only 56% in ¿3cv

(See table 17 ia the Appendix). la general» tbe period 1937-IS«O

has wita'sas«! a cessidsrabla structurel change where the share of

•agricultor* 4«er«ased by about 13% «»4 the sacro of »aaufacturla;

iticj*«ee«á by «Si?-«t 3%. Services shar« h«s also lacroased by ear«

tboa S%.

s«

Taala (T-»>

Tr«nds 1» se»« L&boar Fore* Parasitera

1960-1969 (IUl«s oaly)

Parameter» 1960 196S 196»

Crud« Ecoaoaie Activltv lat«a (6 t ov«r>T o t * l . . . . - . « • •• • .;••

OrbaaIturel ' . ' .Dlttrlbntioa of •«•-rrouo (6-111A(«-«p«elfle activity (K«ta)Oat of laboar tere» (t»to)£arell*4 «t ta« prlaa^y ache«! (ftata)

• Ferceatage of groupa (20-49) to labo-srfore« la th« •••« age groupa

- Pareaatag« of aga groa? (t-11) té all.agrlealtav« workera

- Pareaatag« of ag« group (6-11) to all•coaomle activities la tb« aaa* agag r « a p e • • ' - v • „ • „ - , ; : ;

Ota«r Kat«a- Age apaeifla activity rate (Cf ',- Pareaatag« «f aga groapa (20-»¡-' i La

aaaafaetar« a«etor to iMtonsr i'i-r«*la tk«__aaaa ag« groapa

- P«re«ataga of laboar fore« la arbaa(6 t ov«r).'

- Pareaataga ef Ulltaraay la lab««»foree (la ( ov«r)

5*. 6*7.185.t

17.810.172.1

t52. 2«7.855.2

9.210.«80.»

¿30.0 100.0

52.8

. 8.S

«7.«

S2.2

10.7

32.S

• 3.t

a».7

1.9

72.»

S3.3

1».»

37.3

41. 0

SI.6»5.156.1

10.93.186.0

100.0

- a

S3.7

••

35.2

«3.1«

lot avallaal«.Por ta« ag« groupa (12-$%)

59

"7

11

labour force analysis. Before describing the occupational struc-

ture In Egypt and its trends during the 1937-1971 period, it should

be noted that the data for 1960-1971 refer to pex-^-s 15 years of

age and over, while those of earlier Mates are

and above. In 1960 and 1971 the proportion of workers in white-

collar occupation amounted to slightly less than 17 percent of eco-

noaically active population. (See table V-6). ;

Table (V-6) r

Percent of Labour Torce in each Occupation,

Egypt 1937-1971

\Occupation Tear

• ,\ -Vhite-Collar .

ProfessionalAdministrativeClericalSales \ IBlue-CollarMiners • -. iTransport workersCraftsaen . '

Farmers . .Service workersNot-Classified

Total

1937

11.72.5.7

1.86.7

12.2.1

2.39.8

68.67.2.3

100.0

19f7

12.1*2.7 -.9

2.06.8

15.7.1--

2.» ,13.2

60.59.02.5

100.0

1960

-16.6• 3^7

1.13.78.1

19.3.2

3.1*16.0

53.18.32.2

ioo.o

1971

17.06: <».9i. l.<*0

H.jH7.12

18.69

. Í

52.639.061.25 !

I- 1100.OC ,

The increase in.the proportion of white-collar workers was

shared by all the four occupational groups comprising this broac

occupational category. This observation remains valid when diffe-

rence in the lower age liait is taken into account. (Vhen profes-

60

sional, administrative, clerical and sales workers 15 of ag« and

over are related to the total labour force 6 years of age and over

in 1960, their shares are 3.7, 1.0, 3.3 and 7.2 percent respecti-

vely) . The shares^of the.blue-collar occupations as well as ser-

rice and sport workers also increased during the same period, though

the increase in the share of the latter group was less impressive.\

Regarding females occupational structure, the sixties have

witnessed a dramatic change in their occupational pattern. As nen-

tioned earlier a big shift front agriculture to other sectors was

observed. Fron table (V-7) bèiow, we can see a large increase in

the proportion of female white collars in 1969 as compared to 1961.

Also an increase is observed in their proportion as blue collars.

The only sharp decline was in the feaale agricultural service occu-

pations.

Table (V-7)

Percentage Distribution of Témale labour Torce

According to Occupations (1961-1969)

Occupations

White collerServicesAgricultureBlue collerUnstated

1961

19. H27.6i«3.06.72.3

1969

33.32t.H22.t11.0».9

«Source; C.A.I.F.A.S., «p. cit., « in 20 years.

EMPLOYMENT STATUS - ._•'../. • .

The ••ploy-Bant statu* of economically active- population reflects

the organizational fraaevork of the economy. Thus, it is often

true in the early stages of, developoent in manyless developed coun-

tries, that nost activities are carried ont is snail owned and ope-

rated enterprises. As the level of development increases, this

system gires way to sore cooplex types of econoaic organization

characterized by large-scale and nass-productioc enterprises. These

shifts are reflected by changes in the eaployaent status structure

of the labour force , the proportionate share* of self-enployed

person», unpaid faaily workers, and perhaps, eaployers decline,

«bile the proportion of the paid workers increases.

The iaportant role of fanily enterprises in the.Egyptian eco-

soay ii illustrated by the fact that %0.8 percent of the labour'

force in 1360 were in the categories of self-employed persons and

unpaid family workers A* coapared to the share of employees which

was *S.i psreeet. la I;1??, the proportion of self-employed and

unpaid faaily workers was 37.56$, as coapared to 46.61 for emplo-

yees. ?he available data for the 1937-1970 period show a decline

in the relative »bar« of eaployers, self-eaployed persons and un-

paid faaily workers compensated by as increase in the proportion"of

employees. *

Employment status of the leioor force varies significantly

between the two sexes as well *» ky eg«. Table (V-Sl below shows ,

62

th«t females, as comparad to nales, have lower proportion in group

of employers and self-employed, and higher proportions of unpaid

family workers. However, the trend for each sex follows the same

pattern with varying rates of change.

Table (V-8)

Percentage Distribution of Labsur Force

by Status and Sex, Egypt,.1937 - 1570

Status

EmploySelf-eïmployFamily

j Others

Total

¡i^iloyedhas'»Workers

i,'

19

1223»•3181

100

Males47

.1

.3

.9•7

• • *

.0

1960

723<*9172

100

.8

.6

.0

.6

.1

.0

Females1947

5244326

100

10874

.0

là 6C

1.9'8.2

55.32 8.2.6.it

100.0

1337

. 13.622.8•52.4

. 1.2

100.0

Both• 15*7

112343191

100

.3

.9

.9

.6

.3

.0

SexesI960

7 • •»12.4•»S.518.1.2.W

100.0

Í370

12.619.846.718. C2.4

100.0

Ths patterns of «status structure by age are quite illuminating.

sad self-employed persons,i.e., the entrepreneurial groups,

prevale JT-ong eld age groups. In 1960, seven out of ten of economi-

cally active persons 65 years of age and over were either employer,

or self-employed. In contrast, the proportion of both groups was lsss

than one percent of the labour force below 15 years of age. In fact,

-.he proportion of each of these two groups rises fron a minimum at

young dies to a maximum in the oldest i1»'« group. Unpaid family workers,

on the other hand, ".:s dominant 3Bc>n¿ «l>ílc¡?cn in tfte labour force. Foi

instance 80 percent ef economically Í Í ; Í n persons aged 6-9 were

63

family helpers. This proportion declines continuously to a mini-

Bal level at the oldest age groups. Employees tend to be concen-

trated in'the adult age groups, «here above average proportion are

found in the age range 20-50. .

In genral, aale and female employment status patterns by age

are similar. However, in 1960 the proportions of unpaid family

workers among females were lower than those aœosg nales in ages

below 25, and higher at older ages. The higher proportion for fe-

r.ales at ages over 25 were largely due to the number of wives re-

ported as family workers. The under-reportine- of economically ac-

. tive females is likely to be highest asoné aauit fexaies helping in

fanily enterprises then the sex differentials cf employment iy age

aay he iarjer than indicated. •'•.."

' The above discussion implies that family .enterprises have higher

proportions of young and old workers than non-family enterprises

have. The decline in the role of such enterprises wàich accompanies

économie development is an important factor in tie decline of ac-

tivity rates in young and old age groups.'

differences between the agricultural and non-agricultural sec-

tors patterns of employment staf-s are clear. The iata for Egypt

bear out the typical differences between the twe sectors. .In i960 .

the proportion of employees.in the non-agricultural sector was roughly

twice as much as that in agriculture, the proportion of independent

workers was significantly lower in the oon-agricultural sector than

la agricultor«, while the proportion of unpaid family workers in

agriculture va» nine times that ia non-agricultural industries. There-

for«, the decline of the agricultural share in the labour force

contributed to over-all trend of status structure. In addition, a

narked shift in the status distribution within the non-agricultural

industries not only influenced the trend but also resulted in a

widening gap in the organizational pattern between the two sectors.

EDUCATIONAL STATUS

The rate oí illiterate cales 10 years and over in labour force .

was about 61% in I960, and 61% in 1966. Literacy rate had increa-

sed fron 28.3% In 1360 to 31.1% in 1966. He notice that the majo-

rity of illiteracy is concentrated in agriculture, that is mostly

in rural areas. The percentage of illiteracy in urban areas was

2*».0% in 1966 and 23.7% in 1969, the constancy of this percentage

may be due to the illiterate migrants fro» rural to urban areas,

seeking higher standard of living. Also the percentage of partici-

pation in labour force for age group (6-11) had decreased fron

17.8% in I960 to 10.9% in 1969, and at the sane tine, the percen-

tage of the enrolled pupils in primary education had increased during

the same period from 72.1% to 86%. Consequently, those out of the

labour force in that age group had declined from 10.1% to 3.1%.

Comparing educational pattern of the female labour force

between 1960-1969, we find a large duerease (about 20%) in the il-

literate group and A corresponding iU.tr«**« for females who had

soae years of schooling. • - •

65

Table (V-9)

Percentage Distribution of Labour Force

(Males £ renales) by Education Status 1960-1369

(10 Years and 07er)

Education Status

IlliteracyRead t WriteOfficial Schooling

Total

1360«ale**

63.928.3 '7.8

100.0 '

Female**

79.56.9

13.6

100

1369 ••«ale* | Female««

1

63.1 '27.29.7

10 û

rr,.,10.6

,:29.7

100.5 . !i

* (12-64) years age range.** 10 years,and above ' . • " . . '-•-."'•

Source: op.cit., Population Studies and Researches, Ko.3,and Uomen in 20 years (by C.A.P.M.A .S. ) . - •• •

CHAPTER VI v -

POPULATION PROJECTIONS . / ; >

INTRODUCTION

. It is very Important fop the countries making efforts for eco-

aoaic and social development to have a full picture of what is pro-

jected to be in the future concerning composition, size, and other

characteristics of their population. The calculation of future po-

pulation trends or the making of an outline of unknown course of

the vital characteristics, is generally termed by'population pro-

jections. Thus, a projection is an illustrative calculation ini-

tiated from certain given assumptions; Ke start from an initital

'time point and proceed to any other desired point permitting the

assumed conditions to operate throughout the* time of projection." . . - ' . • . .. • ; . • - . i • '..-••::'• >..T : ? .-•'••Í- • *••= •

: - . T • • . ; • • • - ' • . • • • î- » a t "

There are numerous possible methods of calculating such future

_ population estimates, we shall concentrate on the component method.

The calculation of a population projection by the component methods

requires the establishment of base figures.for the population clas-

sified by: sex and age groups at the" date from which the projection

departs. Vith these figures at the starting point, the projection

•*••.'• ' - » . - • • i •-• . / • - : • - • . < i ; - ' '•• - ' ••'•••• í ; . ! . " ! Í , " ; ..•.•' M - . ' J ' .1

is carried out by means of fertility and mortality rates and assump-

tions as to their future levels. •'".''•••--.'¿•#5 ••>'-,:••••• •'.- -i:.'~t *-* . ' } . ' , -

~ Five assumptions concerning the future levels of fertility and

•ertality rere invastijated. ' -- •'*•

1. Khalifa, A.n. i £1 Kouby, fi-,"Population agiag in Egypt:Ta«t andfuture trends", Egyptian Population t Family Planning Review. Vol.6_M©.1, 1973. . ,;

67

First. we assumed that a gradual decline in nortality would

occur while fertility would reaain unchanged at the level of 1960.

The estimated decline in mortality was as follows:

l''. A reduction in the specific death rate for ages less than

y one by the amount of five percent of its initial level.

:. A reduction in the specific death rate for ages 1-u by the

..amount of two percent of its level of 1960.

3. A reduction in the remaining age-specific death rates by

' che amount of one percent of their initial levels.

All these reductions were assumed to take place five years for

a period of fifty years, after which the rates were fixed at their

.last levels. . •• •"•'..'

Secon-i, the age-specific death rates were assuaed to be cons-

tant at their levels of 1960, while fertility rates wer« reduced by

the amount of five percent of their starting levels. This reduc-

tion in fertility also occured every five years for a'period of

fifty years from 1960, after which the rates settled at their last

l e v e l s . • - ' • ' . • . • •_ • .

Third, w« studied a sore realistic case in which both fertility

and mortality were subjected to a simultaneous decline in their

levels. In this case, the reduc-,j.oa in Mortality was similar to

that oceuring in case one, wile the reduction in fertility was the

sane as that of case two.

Fourth, we had to study the ig.p«c£ of constant fertility and

68

mortality condition* by fixing them at th« levels prevailed in 1960

all over th« whole period. . .

Finally, the attainment of a replacement level i.e., reducing

the net reproduction rate to one, was the last assumption tested

and manipulated in this work. It was assumed that the population

of Egypt would achieve a replacement lavel at about the year 2000,

i.e., after forty years of the starting point 1980. The age-speci-

fic fertility rates were thus assumed to be represented in a straight

line relationship, within the period 1960-2000, having a negative

slope equal to - 075. In addition, the age-specific death rates

were subject to a gradual decline, similar to that experienced in

cases one and three. *

These give assumptions will be denoted sia (1) to sim (5) ac-

cording to the above order. .

PROJECTION OF THE TOTAL POPULATION

Table (VI-1) below shows a summary of population size projec-

ted according to the different five alternative assumptions.

PROJECTIONS BY BROAD AGE,GROUPS

Regarding projections by functional age and sex groups, we ,

found the following under each assumption (detailed tables are in

th« Appendix). It has been noted that a decline in mortality ha*

only a minor effect on the age composition. A ssall amount of de-

crease in the proportion of population under fifteen years old, and

69

a saall aaouat of increase in the proportion of population at older

age», were observed. Th« initial levels were 42.50, 54.39 and 3.12

percent'for children, adults and aged persons, respectively. After

a period of fifty years, they becane m . 2 2 , 45.98 and 3.80 percent

see taule (VI-2).

Table (VI-1)

Projected Total Population Size for Egypt in the

. Period 1970-2000 According to Five

Different Assumptions .

Year

157Û19751980

I's3513332300

sim; H

16.8i*.l21.7.T4.923.6Ii .3

1

16132124

2735

1)F

.6

.6

.4

.4

.7

.7

M

16.13.20.22.24.

29.

S 1 9

66

6890

Projected(2 )I

16.18202224

28

4

333.2.3

H

16.18.20.23.25.30.

Pop. Millionssim I3)

77B25

2

1618202225

F

.4

.4

.5

.7

.0

.5

1618

21242734

sim

H

.7

.9

.6

.5

.7

.2

I**)

F.

16.518.721.123.927.034.1

M

16.13Î02224

27

sin

.6

. u

.4

.3

.2

.1

I b )

F

it.-*13.2

2C.C

21.323.7

25.6

Table (VI-2)

Projected Percentage Age Distribution by Broad

Croups after a Period of 50 Years According

to Different Assumptions

age

0 .1565

groups

- 14- 64more

Total

Initial

42.54.3.

100.

<H 60)

S4i

3

Si»

41453

100

(i)

.2

.0

.8 .

.0

Sim(2)

23.5Î6.15.4

100. C

SÍB(3>

30.164.65.3

100.0

Sit)(4)

39.4S6.73.9

100.3

Sia(5)

25.028.96.1

100.0 '

70

The case of declining fertility showed larger changes in the

age composition than those recorded in the case of reduced morta-

lity. The proportion of population at the mer cloned age categories

became 28.49, 66.m and 5.36 percent. From taese figures, we cao

see tnat a large decline in the proportion of children compared with

a large rise in the proportion of people at otner ages would, un-er

. tbis assumption take place.

The recorded age composition, in the case of simultaneous de-

clice.'. in fertility and mortality, was 30.09, .6*. ¿'2 and 5.29 percent

for the three broad age categories.

^ut when mortality and fertility conditions were fixed at their

levels of I960, as made in case four, we did cot observe any signi-

ficant .changes in the relative-age distribution. Tie differences

between the level at successive time points were négligeable. Tie

Egyptian age composition was nearly stabilized at levels of about

forty, fifty-six, and four percent for children middle-aged.and •

aged persons respectively.

The most notable change in population age composition occur-

red in case of producing NKF. = 1. The proportion of children was

at its lowest level while the proportions of people at both medium

and old ages were at their higher levels. That was due to the lar-

ger' anoant of.reduction in fertility levels maintained in this case

rather in other cases. The composition..attained the levels of 24.39,

68.83, and 6.^- percent after the passage of fifty years from the

initial tine point.

Tb« distribution of individuals at different ages reveals several

important aspects and characteristics, of population, ¿ne of thcs«

charactarlstics is the burdas prastnted by children, and aged per-

sons on tba productiva elements of tha population. Frca the study

of tba various assumptions about the future fertility aac .icrtality

conditions, it was evident that the dependency load or one ay tne

proportion of population in the productive ages failed significantly

in eases of declining fertility. That was due to the ract that any

reduction in fertility would reduce the cuaber of youag people. Acd

since this number always constitutes a large proportion of popula-

tion, then such reduction in fertility would produce a lighter bur-

dan of dependency, fro» the eeonoaic point of view, the increase

in the proportion of children, resulting fros a decline in aortality

which has not been~co~uaterbäianeed by a corresponding eeclise in

fertility, would causa an increase in expenditure is public services,

education requirements, social welfare, and such otntr :osaios.~

Moreover, tha participation of both children and age¿ persons in

economic activities is very Halted compared with toat sf /outs

whose productive capacity is very high.

Tba drop in tba dependency ratio was at most in case of reducing

tba aat reproduction rata to one, owing to thelarger decrease in tba

proportion of children and the larger decrease in the proportion of

adults. .

2. Central agency for Mobilisation and Statistics, "Tha Increase ofPopulation in tee U.a.ft. and its Inject oa Development", iXef.•o.50-100, Cairo, September 1969).

PROJECTION OF THE LABOUR FORCE

It has been shown earlier, in chapter S, that activity rates

of sales in the age group 20-60 are ajœost stable. Moreover, these

rates are high enough to suggest that they would renain unchanged,

at least in the near future. These basic observations say be uti-

lized in the projection of the labour force by age group to the year

1S85 as shown in table (VI-3) below. The figures presented in the

table are computed by applying the activity rates to the projected

population.

Table (VI-3)

Projected Labour Force up to Tear 1985

for the Age Group (20-59) :

AgeGroup

20-2425-2930-3435.3940-1*445-4950-5155-59

Activi-ty Rat«

%

86.796.097.898.298.097. a96.494.5

1970Pop.000

15731126935870819762598480

LabourTorce -

13641081914854803745576454

1975Pop.000

18681550110 5914846789720553

LabourForce

162014881018698829772694

- 522

1980Pop.000

1856184015221081889315746666

LabourForce

1609176614891062871797719629

1965Pop.000

21471829180814891051857771691

LabourForce

186117561768146210303387*3653

Tb« decreasing rate of participation of the population in the

age group 60 years or »ore during the period 1947-1360 «ay be extra-

polated to obtain the projected activity rates for the period unde*.

study. These rates and the computed labour force are shown in ta- .

ble (VI-»)

73

Table (VI-»)

Projected Labour Force up to the Tear

1985 for the Ages,60 or More

Year

1970197519801985

Activity Rat«%

59.753.4»»7.0«0.7

Pop.

901106412411467

1

ProjectedLabour Torce

538 ,568583597

A si«ilar procedure is followed to obtain estimates of the lib.,

force in the age groups 12-A4 and 15-19 as show a in table (VI-.

below.

Table (VI-5)

Projected Labour Force up to Tear 1985 .

for the Age Groups (12-14) and (15-19)

Years

1970197519801985

12 -Activity Rates

t

68.164.060.056.5

14Pop.-,3C

113913131385L513

LabourTorce(000)

776844832855

15 -Activity Rates

%

50.657.053.650.4

19Pop.

c;c

1891187321722238

LabeurTorrs(C

11-i:ilia-1-:.

i

fere, all efforts exert*« fWVatt «terolopjaetrt •? tfcs aaCloaal •€*-

aosy and the proaoties of tke «*«*A«rd of living «oaXd km Impm4mi

by the accelerated popvXatle» fTOtrth ealess.it is placed slthia the

franeirork of the resources aad possibillt£«a>3&*llA»le.

IB order to M e t the seeds of the cosstryiTtk«. Egyptiaa oco-

aoay should provide for Isprovlsg the prodactioa. Âàé+ilTy aad tko

ecoaoalc level of tke people, rractically» this'a*ea* raising;•"«*•

labour productivity, ahich can be fulfilled thro«gh tko proeotfnei

of the health staadards of the people. This» is tara, aeeessltate«

the adoptioa of a soaad policy for tke propagation of -«amitary •er». • . ' - - - - • -

vices, aedieal treataeat aad coxbatiag tke disease« »kick lead the

iahabltaats «ad weaJcéa the« physically aad «eatally* It

aecessitates taking the aecessary. preveatlve' sissssi'ss »hi

the physical health of the iahabltaats aad save then frosj3.

disease* by previdiag the« vitk tke eaaeatial à«t»ltl«o l d l c

la tke folloviag aaalysis, ve shall eoaoeatva«* aevo mm the

last tweaty years 1SS2-1I72. * . ..';•.'',/* ..-,-'•

1) ECONOMIC sACICTOOHP

Egypt has realised eoaaiderable eeeaasUa progress derla*

laat few years, especially ia tke field of iadastrlHsatlesi.

eeltvre is still tke «aia sovrce of liviag for'the majority of tfce

'. 9*1 «latios la Egypt. Dwiag tko last 2* year« «Tapood «toso 1SS1.

Cit.. •repvlatiesi a«4 »é«• toposat*

77

vr« has b««n à strong push to th* eeonoay and tfforts for soder-

.. latioa la Egypt.

Agriculture

During th* seventy years slaca th« beginning of th« present

:eitury, th« cultivated araa has lncreaeed froa about S.I to 6.0

«tllioQ f«ddaas. This «ccouats for lass than -3% increase, «bile

ta« population has grown by «or« than 258% (fro* 9.7 to 34 aillions).

.*» indicated la tabla (VII-1) below,' aad as a result of this unba-

l*Bc«4 ineraat«, th« par-capita sbara In th« cultivated areas has

iropp«! considerably, froa about 0.S3 to about 0.18 faddaos during

:,-< i*>t aavcaty years. Crop ar«at bow«T«r, haa iscr«as«d ralati-

v«iy aara dua to th« paraaaaat irrigation systaa aad us« of ferti-

lisers.

iuriag the last t«a year«, as ancunt of L.E.3S0 aillloa has

M«a ia»j»Ti2 ia the agricultural seeter «ad irrigatioa axcludlag

ib« High Oaa lsv«stB«nts(Z..£.18& nlllioa). Tees« iare»t««nts co-

fteui vertical aad horisoatal eapsasiea. As a rasait, the produc-

tivity par faJdaa haa eoBsld«?ably increased. la 1952, th« average

produetica ol th« feädaa of eettsa «-as «.S ke&tars ats4 ia 1971 it

Tncz*i 3.7 k*atars. buriffij tha saa* period, that of «heat ros«

fro» S.ia ar4»b« t» 8.SS «t^&bn,, ««is« froa (.3 to 11.0 ardabs..*ra :

Tat crop area / iaereaseA ifem S.S iu 1962 to 10.9 «illioa fedd«aa

Í3 1471.

ia tn« K»j»; «is eí

7t

in tb« field of Agriculture. The realisation of this »la is not

far in Egypt a* indicated by foreign trade data..

Table (VII-1)

Cultivated Area and Crop Area in Egypt

in Census Tears 1897-19*70

Tears

13971507191719 2719371947I9601966196819691970

Population(Millions)

9.711.212.814.215.919.0 .26.0-30.131.632.»33.2

Cultirated AreaMillionFeddans

5.15.*S.35.S5.35.85.9

6.06.06.0

PerCapita

0.350.480.410.390.330.310.230.200.J10.190.18

' '••"•• C r o p A r e a

Million

• • • •

6.87.67.78.78.49.210.210.410.910.910.9

PerCapita

0.710.670.60

i 0.610.530.480.390.340.340.340.33

la the field of agricultural development certain factors should

tie taken into consideration such as the increase of the cultivated

area, the expansion of the irrigated land, giving More care to pro-

aoting aniaal wealth, securing chemical fertilizers and insectici-

des, generalising the cooperation systea in agricultor« development

of mechanization in faraing, improving administrative and organiza-

tional services including agricultural financing and fara aanagcaest

providing select seeds and organising Marketing operations.

The High Daa project aay produce electric power of ten thousand

•illion K.V.H. annually at a very low price. Besides, it is incrca-

79

sing the generating capacity of the actual Aswan Da«. This large

amount of electric power helps increase the areas of reclaimed land

irrigated by subterranean water. There will also be rertical ex-

pansion by increasing the yield per feddan.

Industry

During the last 20 years, industrial production has been in-

creasing at a rate of 11.4% annually. In 19S2, industrial produc-

tion did not exeed L.E.232 million, while in 1970-1971 it surpassed

L.E.2U2* million.

Since 1952 the share of the industrial ..sector in the national _

income has risen iron about B% about 22% in 1970-1971.

Advancement of industry is considered as the most important -

means for economic growth in Egypt. Of the many advantages of in-

dustrialization is the raising of the standard of living, the diver-

sification of the economy, the produc ing of industrial goods, the

creation of more opportunities of work, not only in industry, but

also in the sub sidiary services attached to the development of in-

dustry, and raising the productivity of manpower.

Investments in industry (excluding electricity and construction)

was L.L.362 during the period 1959/1960, 1959/1970. The most Im-

portan^ existing industries at the begining of the fifties were

sugar, spinning and weaving, cement and fertilizers. Production in

these industries have increased nany tí"--,-, du* to expansion and

CO

the construction of"new factories. Many important industries bave

been promoted such as cheaical and plastics. Industrial planning

takes into account the demands of heavy industrial products in ad-

dition to those for consumer goods.' ' '• ',*' ''. " . . .

Major industries are concentrated in the netropolition area

of Egypt. Hora than 22% of the industrial establishments are in

Cairo alone. As early as the First Five.Tears Plan (1960-1965)

one of the aims of industrial' planning was to distribute industry

whenever possible among different regions of the country. This

was partly achieved in the first plan and thereafter.;- ,

M i n i n g ..... .. . , , ; , . .'. • . ; •'•'•

The principal' mineral''products are petroleum,, phosphate, nan- -

ganes«, asbestos, sodium carbonate,- sodiua aalfete, sodium nitrate

and sodium chloride." Ironore has been discovered near Aswan and in

Baharia Oasis in the Western Eesert/, There are still vast areas of.

the desert which have not yet been tapped. Petroleum was first ex-

tracted on a wide scale in 1968. In 1965 the raw oil production

reached 7 million cubic meters and increased to 17 million cubic

meters in 1971. Petroleum products are used on a wide scale for do-

mestic as well as for commercial purposes.

C) SOCIAL BACKGROUND • ;. . • •'

Social development is an integral part of the modernization

process. In fact, social, economic and demorgraphic factors are

interrelated. Many social services are offered to contribute to

the *proc«a«-*of modernisation.

Education

Befor« 1952 «ducation was largely liaited. During tb« last

20 years th« "nualT«r~of priaary stag« pupils bas increased from 1.6

aillion to 3.8 •illion, at an annual increase rat« of 7.1%, which

is about tbr«« tia« tn« rat« of population griwth. Tbis has largely

b««n du« to fr«« education in all stages and the fact that the pri-

mary stage is compulsory. In spit«-of fre« education, the absorp-

tion rates are far from coaplete especially for feaales as shown

in table (VIÎ-3). absorption rates for aales are auch higher and

reach about 85-90%.

Table (YII-3)

resale's at Coapulsory School Age

and Mumbar Accepted (1960-1970)

Years

60-6165-6667-6869-70

Estiaates of Teaales(6 years)

315.1HI*.9«36.7159. *

Accepted

210.0280.9257.52B4.6

Rate of Enrolaent

56.0~~ ....'.67.7^*~59.0'62.0

The nuabér of preparatory and. secondary school students has

increased froa 250 thousands to 1.5 aillioa, th*t is, 5 tiaes during* ' * . ' • * •

the laet 20 years, rurtheraot-e, unirersity education has witnessed• • * '\ '•

a real ceTolutloo, tii* 4kisting uai».irsitles were enlarged and new

ones were established. Tfe« nusbtr of university level students in-

creased drastically from 40 to 213 thousands between-19.52. and 1970/

1 9 7 1 . _ _• . . • . . . . . . . v " • . • . . , " • • _ "

H e a l t h S e r v i c e s . •..' • ; • ' : •. •

The number of beds in hospitals has risen to over 7.3,000 beds,

that is, an increase of 150% during 20 years. Now there is 2.2

beds per thousands citizens. -The number of practicing-doctors rose

to about 15,000 an average of one doctor to every 2300 citizens,

despite Egypt's supplies of doctors to Arab and African countries.

Housing and Utilities • • • • : - . • ' « .'.:••

The state established an.independent Ministry, for'Housing for

the first time in the.history of the country. • Curing'the period

1965-1966 to 1970-1971 the number of urban housing units built was

193,550 (economic dwellings were 134,218, i.e. 69%) and the number

of rural housing units was 75,592. In 1966 the number of existing

housing unit's in urban Governorates was 1,205,031, in lower Egypt

2,308,001, in Upper Egypt 2,269,390,i.e., the total housing units

in Egypt was 5,622,427. During the last 11 years (1959/1960 - 1969/

1970) the state invested about L.E.408 million in the housing sec-

tor, excluding investments in public utilities which amounted L.E.

100 million in the same period. ••-..-

Transportation £ Communication Facilities ;;;;I;I .- . . . - ?'

Railway service has been expanded and improved:during the past

20 years. In 1951-1952 the railway passengers :were 3002-- million

passenger/km, increased to 6773 million passengers/km,~in'1970-1971.

83

The steam locomotives were replaced by diesel. The number of dies«!

locomotive» was 37 in 1951-1952, but rose to S5S in 1970-1971. :

D) SOCIO'ECONOMI." IMPLICATIONS AND POPULATION GROWTH

To sum up the previous findings, Egypt bas a low average in-

come, high rate of illiteracy, and snail-scale agriculture is the

usual occupation. Furthermore, birth rate are high fO or more births

per thousand population. Death rate are decreasing to their lowest

lev : -. The result is a high growth rate of more than 2 percent

pe: innuo. Egypt, then, has a typical demographic pattern observed

in i.ow income areas. This has two salient features: (1) a young po-

pulation, with a high ratio of dependents to earners; and (2) an ac-

' . . • • • • • • • • - y • ' • '

tuai or incipient high rate of population growth.

Table (VII-'*) below is a suonary '" :j»e selected economic and

demographic indicators for Egypt (luring the period 1959/1960 to 1969/

1970.

It is our belief that the level of modernization and stage of

demographic transition are mutually interrelated. Rapid population

growth contributes to stagnate or even lower the socio-economic stan-

dards in a country. At the same time low socio-economic factors are

. tbe.main reasons responsible for the high fertility rates. Therefore,

it can be said that socio-economic development is of prise importance

to reduce fertility rates.

3. Coale, A.J. and Hoover, E.H.,"Population Growth in the Low Income",Princeton Univ. Press, Princeton, K.J., 19S8.

•acsP.

-Ha.

oo

t -

Ö

a-r*-Ol -w> .a»

a»

a>tOa»• - t

•D

S«aOl '

•a

n

a»

L . 1

ir «

- 1 .

7«

O

*-• •

- c«0* '. --

o r*Cl

• - •

CO

H U Í

•A C*O .

*"> lA

f- W

o»Ci

c«

m m• 1 Ofc*Ol

.-"» *o

c» o«

o« c«

Ol

•-t

o» *• r»

o co o«-• «H

- 5 . "

- ^ c- a»

•-i i0 n•-« - O*

i

•/» Pu Ot

- - «iet

- 2

6.Í

19

.

. a

- c*

31

.1

6.

b

j ,

i

r«i

•H *4

1 - 1

1

' O» M» * 4

1

1

^ r> r*

-4 G «0

1S

6

•H

a»

133.

113

3.

—1

M

10

31

02

,3

1 06

.

- CD

CP

r«

a»*

r>

JS

k.1

o

c»

oen .,

t A

a> ,7

3.

7C

.1

O t

* •

- - H -# e

13

« A

B

*>*

3a.o»

c. ^

s o>- o

•

^=

oL.

c

o

a.

3 C

O

s

•

s

uc

o

•»

&.

c*

-m

O

b»

a.

c

*

vutl

o

o

3 -

nco

-

eo

u*>c

c

< *

*uc

o

co

• • *

a.E

aCO

<j

' S

c•

*

a

c

•

«(-

ec

0 >

«3CJ

C

•

ocuC '

o

cn

bO

b

aX

fi

a

c

0

S.

t - »

«s

«•g

«E.

O

Ht

*

*—

&

sous

-*co

" z

• -

V

ba_

cb

3U

b

X• J

O

o

•

c*

a

G

85

In Egypt', in spit« of the continuous growth of the national

product, it has been and still is unable to cope with the rapid in-

crease of population. Regarding cultivated land, in order to keep

the per capita share" of land in 1970 the same as that at the begin-

ning of the century (0.7 feddan), the crop area should have increa-

sed to 23.3 million feddans - that is, more than double the present

area. - ' • .

The agricultural-type economy undoubtedly has contributed to

the population problem. For a long time, Egypt's economy vas based

generally on agriculture. About 68% of the population were engaged.

in agriculutral activities at the beginning of the present century..

This decreased to only 58% in 1960. On the other hand, the propor-

tion engaged in aanufacturing increased from 11.5% to only 12.6%

during the same period. -

The growth of population with its young character (which im-

plies a high dependency ratio) has contributed to increase the con-

sumption of consumer goods and services. This resulted in the sta-

gnation of the percentage saved of the gross domestic product. This

is in addition to the fact that local saving fell short of financing

the investments of the first plan project, a matter which induced

the state to depend to some extent on external sources in financing

the plan's investment. " . . - . "

Increase in consumption of consumer goods and in particular

food items, without a parallel increase in the local production to

cop« with it, led to increasing imports of consumption commodities.

table (VII-5) below shows the imports of selected consumption con-

aodities in Egypt for some selected years.

Table (YII-5)

Imports of some Selected Consomption Goods

in some Selected Tears in Egypt (L.2. Thousand)

Year

193919451950I96019651S701971

Food Grains & Flour

543357

22066262916641530524

. 70749

Heats

124327

13631619801332263673

Edible OilsC Fats

7377

24828745023

1301216910

i) The per capita income. Estimates of the national income

at current prices in the years'1952/53 to 1964/65' indicate that

the total income increased considerably. In spite of that, due

to rapid population growth, the per capita income increased

ouch more slowly, reaching an average of 2108.56 during the

First Five year plan against 290.39 for the preceeding period

from 1952/53 to 19S9/60. (See table 24 in the Appendix).

ii) The per capita consuaption of food. Although the total per

capita consumption of food is relatively high, that of some of

the food items, such as aniaal protein, is by far lower than

many other countries.

In retrospect, we find that the per.capita consumption of food

in the A.R.E. is steadily increasing. In 1951-52 the per capita

87

daily consumption of food totaled 933 g.f in 1962-63 it increa-

sed to 1227 g., in 1969-70 it was 1301 g. The per capita daily

food supply of proteins (animal i vegetable) increased fro«

68.5g. in 1951-52 to 85.1 g. in 1969-70. The per capita con-

sumption of fats increased from 34.7 g. per day in 1951-52 to

45.U g. par day in 1969-70. V

The per capita intake of calories per day was 2324 in 1951-52,

and increased to 2963 in 1969-70.

E) BASIC CHARACTERISTICS OF THE DEVELOPMENT PLAN (1973-1982)

The general policy of the economic and social development plan

has been designed for the next decade to bring under control the

econoaic activity of the community in the fields of production, in-

vestments,income, employment, social services and family consump.- •

tion as well as dealing with the outside world in such a way as to :

achieve thV'designed objectives. ~~ :• •"' "'"•"• - ;

:-IFor- the first time in the history, of the.national econoay,

the industrial income will exceed the agricultural incoae. This

will be effected as from the fifth year of the pian. This means -

the radical .conversion of the Egyptian economy into an industrial, :

agricultural economy by readjusting the structure of.production and

giving powerful boosts to industry, and consolidating the growth

of agricultural production. .

4. op. cit.. Population, Vol.1, No.2, 1972, pp.57

88

•Achieving a surplus in the balance of payments instead of a

deficit as was the case in the previous development plans, as a

consequence of the dependence on the foreign capital for financing

development. Bringing about an increase in the ratio of investments

to income from 13.6% in the year 1972 to 20.9t in the year 1982.

Efforts should be exerted to double the national income at the clos«

of the development plan.

*The priorities of the service projects in the plan have been

decided on the light of the interests of the people.

'Particular stress has been laid in' the plan to raise the so-

cial and economic standard in the rural areas, by starting a pro-

granne of rebuilding Egyptian, villages, and universalising the sup-

ply of electricity and fresh water, the integration of the rural

health services,and raising the individual consumption.

•Lessening the bousing problem after having reached a great

degree of complexity by allocating the funs necasaary for the pu-

blic sector to construct 20 thousand dwelling units every year.

This is in addition to the bousing units to be built by the private

sector and to what is needed for industrial and rural housing in

reclaimed areas. .

The prospective increase in population up to 1982 has been ta-_

fcen. into consideration when formulating the objectives of the plan

so far as the rate of economic growth is concerned, and the necessi-

ty of raising it higher than the rate of population growth.

89

F) POPULATION POLICY AS AN ELEMENT IN SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC POLICY

As Mentioned earlier, population policy has been integrated

in the general development plan. Therefore, two aspects of the de-

Telopnent plan were recognized. Firstly, the extension of the eco-

nonic and social development plans! Secondly, the reduction of the

population growth rate througi reducing fertili. .rates.

yi) Family Planning:

In 1953, the government realized the importance of popu-

lation studies and the national Commission for Population Pro-

blems was established. Since 1953, all studies of the popula-

tion in Egypt point out the widening gap between birth and

death rates thus reflecting a high rate of natural increase.

Therefore, it was necessary to study the natter vithin the ge-

neral framework of socio-economic planning that aims particu-

larly at promoting a happy and prosperous life far every citi-

zen. The National Committee for Population Studies formed sub-

committees in the fields of medical care, public health, and

social services to carry out i follow up the various activities

related to the adoption of family planning. —

In November 1955, a few clinics for family planning were

established on an experimental basis. Since then the number

of clinics has increased gradually from 8 In 1S55 to 3000 in

1972.

5. Thanks are especially due to Dr. A. Bindary, Chairman of the Board'• for Population and Family Planning in Egypt, for his review and'recommendations of the present section.

9C

-The aims- of the family planning centers are the following.

(a) Raising the social level of the family through restricting

the number of children according to people's desire income.

(b) Raising the health level of the family and particularly '

the mother's health which.My be weaken due to frequent'

pregnancies. .•. -

(c) Fighting abortion by preventing pregnancy whenever the "

latter is undesirable. ' ' .'

(d) Providing medical treatment of infertility, thus, solv

some of the social problems of the family arising there

In 1965, a presidential decree established a Supreme

Council for Fanily Planning. By 1972, the distribution of

family planning cento-.- were as in table (VII-6)

Table (VII-6)

Number of Centers and Eligible Couples in

Rural and Urban Areas (1966-1970)

Date.

February 1966December 1970

UrbanCenters

.575908

E.C.

3,0512.159

UrbanCenters

1,«H62.122.

E.C.

1.9481,385

TotalCenter«

1,9913,030

Z.

.2,:

.Here we consider eligible couples (E.C.) to be the avc

number of married women in the fertile age group per family

planning, center. ' ''..-' ^ , .. ..

6. Khalifa, A.M. et al."Status of W O M B as Related to Fertility *Fanily Planning", HCSCS. Cairo. 1973. - ' :.

91

- Tb« following tables show The number of acceptors of fa-

nily planning services offered in the national progranae up

to 1970. .

- Table (VII-7) ' ' ' "

Yearly and Cumulative Nunber of Acceptors .

by Methods (1966-1970)

Year

19661967196819691970

YearlAll Methods

1741*113414 8206

r (inIUQ

2451475557

0001;)Orals

150903733

115

Others

-

_34

Cumulative (in 000'All Methods

174315449597303

I Uli

2475

J.22177234

Orals

150240327420535

1s)Others

_

34

Table (VII-8)

Acceptors by Methods and Source

Method

AllIUOOralConventional

AllUsers

619183420

16

Sources% of E.C.

12.63.7a.s

0.3

nationalUsers

458132314

12

iProgranof E.C.

9.32.66.S

0.2

PrivateUsers

16151

106

4

i•

Sectorof E.C.

3.31.12.1

0.1

Population targets (1973-1982)

According to the published statement by the Supreae Coun-

cil for Family Planning, the policy is as follows:-'-•7/

7. Supreae Council for Population and Faaily Planning,"General Po-llcy of the Population and Faaily Planning in A.K.E.",'Mea., .Cairo, 1973.

92

1. Reduction of annual growth rate froa I0.6 per thousand in

1973 to 10.C per thousand in 1932. '

2. The above target can be achieved through:

(a) Reduction of birth rate from 33.6 per thousand in 1973

to 23.6 .per thousand in 1982 (a one per thousand decline

per year)-.

(b) Reducing the death rate from 14.2 in 1969-1971 to 13 per

thousand in 1982.

3. The total size of population in A.R.E. will reach about <tl

Billion in 1982, with a change in the rural urban distribu-

tion as follows:

1970: Rural SS% - urban <*2% .

1982: Rural 53% - LTban <*7t

<*. The amount of birth averted need to be 3,120 thousands, this

would save L.E.I1* ,380 of the government expenditure, assu-

ming that each new born child costs about L.E.fcOOO- up to age

15. . •

These objectives can b.» Measured through:

(a) General fertility rates to be reduced from 159 per thousand

in 1972 to 112 per thousand in 1982 (1.3 annual average).

(b) Marriage fertility rate to be reduced from 236 in 1972 to .

160 in 1982 (annual average is 7.6 per thousand). -'..;_

(c) Average birth to be reduced from 3.6 (1969 data) to ?.? in

••'•• • . 1 9 8 2 . • • :'-• . ':• :''-::': r:. ':'-•• ;:•':' '_•': : X ¿ : ; • ' . . - ; ; . • / ' • " • ' • : " ' • '•••'•

'•.'• Three types of population ara possibly recognised íince

93

they are different from the point of viev of Motivations, at-

titutdes and behaviour towards fertility and family planning.

(a) Rural population: high fertility behaviour and attitudes.

(b) Urban population: which both attitudes and behaviour are

towards low fertility.

(c) Transitional population: those who acquired the attitudes

of low fertility, yet behaviour tends to be sf high ferti-

lity.

As a matter of fact there are no exact geographical limi-

tations between these three types; all exist in different pro-

portions throughout the country.

yFamily Planning through Development

Family planning is not only a medical, but r-inl;- ¿ocio-

ccononic problem, and therefore this solutions lie ic the fields

of socio-economic development, raising the stanc%rd of living,

education, and employment (specifically that of -ooen). Expe-

rience shows that family planning practices can spread in a

community as a natural process within the framework of the de-

velopment process of the community and without any external

pressure.

At a certain level of socio-econoaic development, at a

. certain level of education and knowledge, at a certain

8. 'Ibis part is written in reference to the announced policy ofthe Board for Population and Family Planning. In addition to;

••' Herzy M.,Taaily Planning through Development", (Memo), Boardfor Population i Family Planning in Egypt, Cairo, December 1971.

degree of consciousness of personal interests, rights and

'tasks, people freely decide to liait the size of their family.s - * -* .

Multiplication of family planning clinics and services,

widespread distribution of contraceptives and nation wide ad-

vertisment are not enough. He have not only to make mothers

swallow pills, insert IUDs, distribute condoms and diaphragms,

we have also to stimulate, to help and to accelerate a changa

of attitude and behaviour. It is certainly a more difficult

process and a longer one.

There are 3000 centers and hospitals providing family

planning services in Egypt. This number will be increased so

as to bave one center per village and per city quarter. But

the main task is to encourage women to become familiar with

them ,..

We have then to create the historic circumstances (socio-

economic development and education), the climate (information,

stimulation of new interests) and the conditions of a social

conflict between deeply rooted traditional habits and new

needs which place people in the position of free and personal

decision.

• •

' ' As the long-term objectives and the policy of a programme

of family planning and population control must be established

in the light of the general plans for the development of the '

çoantsy, its immediate objectives and activities should be

95

linked to national cevelopnent project».

Ali. projects of developnent can constitut« a. favourable,- .. v

frame for le aching family planning activities, or they can be

accompanied asa supported by family planning activities.

Fanily planning can be linked to development projects,

whatever objectives they have:

- Raising the standard of living of people.

- Creating a change of interests.

- Opening neu perspectives for production.

- .reating.new job opportunities specially for voceo:

- ^cocooic- development through ioaästriarization, (especially ./

in. rural areas), intensive agriculture aûc i».eciianiza:ijn,

cooperative electrifications, land reclaoation and settle-

ment, etc.

- Isproveoent of health and welfare, through action against

epidemics, inoculation campaings, sanitation, nutrition, oc-

cupational health (Deducing Infant Mortality).

- '_cciaJC 'ifjucture change based on the conflict created between

wçien's «splcyient and child-bearing.

. - '.he impleraiatation of a social security system.

• - Regulation of child labour.

- Developing neu disciplines in school curricula.

- Adult education, literacy and vocational training.

The solution seaas for us to b* the introduction of the

faaily planning and population coapoaent into all the national

96

programmes and projects of development. .'•'•'

The integration of family.planning.and development will

facilitate and accelerate the beneficial effects which any de-

velopment programme achieve in relation to fertility reduction.

. Development and mechanization of agriculture, industria-

lization of rural areas, women's employment, building of schools,

hospitals and cinemas are also, according to the new policy,

Faaily Planning Projects.

Usual family planning activities are only activities ad-

ditional to development programmes, family planning programmes

must utilize development programmes as privileged channels to

transmit the family planning messages. ' ' • • ' - '

The above considerations might lead to a drastic review

of future programmes, which would avoid loss of time and waste

of money, . - • .

- '• However, the efforts and actions done hitherto and every-

where, have not been entirely useless because they hava permitted

us to-serve the part of society which was already awaiting -. .

family planning services. • -

. These efforts and actions have also enabled the authori-

ties concerned to realize the magnitude of the problem and its .

complexity.

Finally, they have shown that everything remains to be

97

'don« in*order tbat attitudes and behaviour may change, and fer-

tility trends »ay be 'affected. ,

£/ii)-Internal "'gration~ •

As Indicated in chapter 5, Egypt is facing a trend of in-

ternal Bigration fro» rural to urban areas, which in turn re-

sulted in a great rate of growth in the cities. Meantime, pro-

blems of housing and communication aros« in those cities as a

result of crowdedness. - • • •

The state faces the results.^ of tbose migrations by' in-

creasing the investments in housing and transportation in

order to cover the existing-shortage in the main cities. Com-

mittees have also studied the methods of limiting migration

from the rural areas to the capital either through direct ad-

ministrative means which regulate the use of the .migrating

labour força or through indirect means by raising the standard

of living in the rural regions. The programme set for the im-

provement and the rebuilding of the Egyptian villages is coa-

'sldered an important step in this respect. Some of the recent

studies have pointed to the necessity of following' a policy in

order to re-distribute the population and to create new settle-

. ment regions, also, setting programmes for regional balanced

distribution of industries and universities.

iii) External Migration - ,

The state has set a general policy for external migration

9. op. cit.. Population and Development.

with a view of encouraging and facilitating external migration

for those who want it. The state does not:-see in this a way

out of the proble» 01 xtur rapid population growth, but consi-

der» it in pursuance of the principle of the right of citizens

in movement and in work. ' :. • ,;•_

The.state puts SOB« restrictions with respect to emigrants

who are holders of critical qualifications for needed for na-

tional economy. Certain quotas of such holder* of specific

-.xdeaic degrees are credited for emigration annually.

99

APPENDIX A

DEMOGRAPHIC DATA IN ARAB REPUBLIC OF EGYPT

Among the Arab countries of North Africa and South West.Asia,

the Arab Republic of Egypt is outstanding with respect to demogra-

phic data available and the adoption of a sound population policy.

A) POPULATION CENSUSES • •

Population censuses in Egypt go back as far as 1632 and the

latest census was taken in 1966. Between these two dates, seven

complete deeenial censuses were carried out, namely; 1397, 1907,

1917, 1927,-1937, 1917 and 1960.

The complete censuses taken at regular intervals are regarded

as an important instrument and from the basic source of comprehen-

sive data on demographic aspects. These censuses also provide the

frame for designing household sample surveys which have been deve-

loped in Egypt with the recent trend of increased use of sampling

to spare time and cost wherever complete enumeration is unnecessary.

The latest census taken in Egypt was in 1966. It was also the

first census to be taken on the sample basis. This includes a com-

plete head-count in which the number of persons by sex, religion,

and nationality were recorded household by household. This complete

count was taken on a de facto basis. A list of households provided

thé frame for the sample. Other characteristics of the population

i-

were taken from a sample of households.

The National Census of,PQpulat,ion 197O.-_Tt}e census planned-' 'y • •-" • " — - • • ' • • ' " . . ' • • ' -

to be carried out in 1970 as the latest decenial census (next to -

1960) was postponed du« to the prevailing war conditions-in the

Middle Cast. Measures have been taken to carry out the 1970 ceasus

during the World Population Year (1974).

B) VITAL REGISTRATION SYSTEM

.\egistration of vital events (birth, ceaths, marriages an'

vorces) has been in force in Egypt since .1312.". i.cwevîr, Li wa-

kncws toat registered vitai events were socewnat•ielow the act

total events. Therefore, birth.and death.rates were, published

areas where a public nesltb Bureau.operated. 'Those bureaus uc;

usually located in the more developed regions at»d therefore t:.

vital statistics represented, more cocplete registration and wer.

.of more reliable approximation of the true rates.

Registration has been recarkatly improved ¿y the.extenticc

iieaita bureaus aou the increase-of their coverage inrougnout tr.

couzzry. To test the completeness of reporting various vital e1

for registration, a sample survey of vital rates in rural Lower

Egypt was carried out in 1S6«.

APPeiDIX ß

DETAILED TABLES

Table (1)

Distribution of Mothers According to Ord»r on New Born

-.. . (1955, 1959, 1960, 1961, -Í96S ,'1967)

difieren-1971.

102

Table (2)

•Infant Mortality and Age Specification Death Rates s*» Egypt

Years

1930193S19*0

• 19!»1 -19*219*313**19if5191*619*7191*819*9195019S1195219S3195«*195519S61957195819591950196119621963196*196519661967196819691970

Infant Mortality

15116116215C1691611521521*11271361361301281271*613813612*13011210911010813»!119117113127116131119116

1-2*

17.519.019.*20.220.518.*18.*19.917.01*.213.*1*.312.113. C11.113.510.912.29.6

12.1io. e9.6

10.99.2

11.68.M9,S7.39.17.*9.87.5 ,8.*

Age Intervals25-**

8.13..J.8.6fi.8

10.110.29.5

10.1

9.39.59.75.* •5.65.C*.3».5*.S -.3.9*.i4.03.91.03.33.63.63.53.33.13.33.33.33.33.5

*5-6*

18.819.7

18.818.921.3.23.219.823.719.»!16.S1*.O1S.012.»11.811.*11.011.110.211.111.211.311.611.811.212.*.12.011.610.9.12.0:i2;o;I2Í513:2.J*.O

93.9108.6115.5117.7l**.l151.2135.5132.51*0.7106.7108.7100.9105.3101.29*.795.*98.090.099.7

105.8.99.0

107.*103.*90.585.18*.l81.186.1:91.990.1SO.9• 95..<J-108.0

Source» C.A.P.M.S.,"Vital Statistics for A.R.E.— ~ July 1968.

froa 1930?, Cairo,

103

; . . Table (3)

Crude Death Rates In A.R.C from 1930 till 1970

Year Male

19301935191019111912191319111915 '191619171918191919501951195219531951195519561957195S195919601961196219631961196519661967196813691 - " v

27.028.128.527.930.830.528.630.227.523.122.022.1

• 20.120.518.920.3

' 18.518.217.019.517.117.017.716.513.015.815.811.115.711.315.911.515.1

Female

22.21.21.23.25.21.23.25.22.19.19.29,17.17,16,18.17.17,15.17151516151715151116111611IS

311176,2,0.3,3,7.0.7.9.7.8.8.1.7.7.a.6.2.2.8.2.8.1.1.2.1.1.1

Total

21.926.126.325.728.327.726.627.725.021.120.120.619.0

17.819.617.917.616.117.816.616.316.915.817.915.515.711.015.911.216.111.515.1

Source: C.A.P.M.S.,July 1958.

•Vital Statistics for A.R.E. fro« 1930", Cairo,

IG»

- Table (•») .

Neo-Natal and Still-Birth Death Rates in Egypt (1330-1970)*

Years Heo-.'.atal Death Rates Still-Birth Death Rates

193S13*0

19U21943

19US

1343Í35Ü135119321353las'*1355

" 19561957195813531360196119621363'19Ô41365

> 196E .,1367136819691970

13V7 '

18.413.417.S17.613.+13.721. *21.013.ó13.513.320.220.220.2-21 .â22.0:o.920.920.513,520.313.320. t:2.721.121.8:a.2 '23.7 .22.021.»20.519.9

»77

' 777

777767,6 .7 ,7 ,

á.8.8.8 .7 .7 .7 .7 .7 .6 .9 .

8 .8 .8 .7 .7 .7 .

. 1

. 7. 3

. 3

. £-7» C. i. 3

. 0

. 3

. 9, -5-

, ^

,S, V775;7~

1

38 '9Si .

7

^Source; C.AiP.M.S., "Vital»Statistics for'AïS.E.'ro« 1930"; Cairo. , J u l y ; 1 9 6 8 . • > . ; •;.. ••_- , .•.•''",•••: .•,•.;' '•.-/'' :': >.'> .•-..-.•.

10 5

Table (5)

Adjusted Expectation of Life in Egypt in

Successive Censures Years 1947-1966

Age

'" 015

10IS20

5055fcO65707580

19.Hales

39.56"»7.3851. S348.6044. U 340.5973.2033.6630.3326.3722.6119; 3115. £712. 84

. 10.Ú57.505.634.15

7Females

42.5049.5653.9850.3146.7743.0339.4835.9432.3128.6324.8621.0317.3413.S210.738.064.934.32

1960Hales

46.2453.35 '55. £351.9247.5745.8939.7335.8731.3828.0820.3020.6 .12.0813.7810.818.186.024.38

Females

48.7S55.3357.5254.1849.92".45.8942.C338.1834.2730.3426.3722.3818.5414.8611.588.716.39H...61

1966Hales

•»8.4955.32S6.9153.0548.6444.4640.6036.6332.6628.6824.8121.0417.4714.11'11.088.386.174.48

FemaleB

SI.2557.5859.3455.5351.1847.0443. C6."39.0935.0831.0527.0022.9519.0515.3011.948.996.594.75

^Source: Central Agency-for Public Mobilization and Statistics,Population and Development, Cairo 1973

106

100

10

15-29

TO ana over

50-59

0-4

1927 1937 1947 1960 1970Years

Percentage Distribution of Population byAge In Egypt

107

Table (7)

Percentage Distribution of the

Population by Age in Egypt

Ag«

0 - 4

5 - 910 - 14

5 - 1 4

15 - 1920 - 2425 - 29

15 - 29

30 - 3435 - 3940 - 4445 - 49

30 - 49

50 - 5455 - 5960 - 6465 - 69

50-69

70 6 ore

Total

1927

14.4

13.111.1

24.2

9.17.88.6

25.5

• 7.56.65.63.8

23.5

4.01.62.80.9

9.3

3.1

100.0

1937

13.2

13.912.0

25.9

8.58.08.2

23.7

7.57.25.94.1

24.7

4.21.72.7-0.9

9.5

3.0

100.0

1947

13.6

12.711.7

24.4

10.07.37.8

25.1

6.96.96.04.4

24.2

4.61.82.90.9

10.2

2.5

100.0

1960

15 3

14.612.3

26.9

8.36.97.4

22.6

6.46.74.94_4

22.4

3.82.42.51.3

9.3

2.1

100.0

1970

16.8

13.811.8

25.6

10.28.77.5

26.4

6.45.44.63.8

20.2

3.22.6

. 2.01.5

9.3

1.7

100.0

Source; Population Census Data, CAPMAS, Cairo, Egypt, (differentyears)

IG S

:'..' Table (8) -

Sex Ratio by Age for Egypt (luring the Period (1917-1970)

.-»ge groups

0 - *5.-9

1 0 - li»1 5 - 1 923 - 2<»25 - 2930 - 3<t

35 - 3S4 0 *- 41»

i»5 - t9

50 - 5"*55 - 596C - 6165 - 6973 - 71»75 i over

All Ages

1917

9610111911990909797

1011001009989867986

100

1927

36102120111908887

111 :19011789

11390888879

. 99

1937

Si»101117113SS8983

ill10111098

10892878673

100

19i»7

89101107107968790

1011001039>»9981

1029775

93

1960

104108103107105829696

1089898

10291918062

101

1970

1051081081071058297

1 9811093

. 99101»S29361

' 61

•10 2

Source i Several Census Tables and 1970 Estimates for Egypt.:.

109

Table (9)

Marriage and Divorce Kates

?er 1000 Population in Egypt (19*7-1370)

S O U r e e ;

Tears

19*7194819*9195019511952195319541955195619571958195919601961196219S3196*196519661967196819691970

Marriage Rate

13.71*.Ol*.l13.*12.110.89.89.79.89.*10.09.29.1

10.98.68.59.a10.59.89.87.38.69.59.7

Divorce Rate

*.O3.c

3.73.73.63.22.82.62.62.*2.52.42.*2.52.32.02.12.22.22.11.81.91.92.0

g Divorce Statistics(Several Tears)

for by C A P H «DJ C.A.P.K.A.

110

Table (10)

Average Nuober of Lire Births by Educational ;

Attainment of Mother and Duration of Harried Life

in Egypt (1960 Census)

EducationalAttainment

IlliterateAble to readIntermediatecertificatesUniversitydegrees

Total

Duration of Harried LifeLess th'an 5

.7

.8

.a

.7

.3

5-9

2.52.9

2.1»

2.1

2.6

10-19

4. S5.0

3.6

2.9

4.8

20-29

6.36.2

t.4

3.1

6.3Í

30 or more

6.76.2

4.7

3.7 '

6.7

Total

3.7

2.1

1.6

4.1

Source: Cairo Demographic Center, Monographe 2, "Fertility Differen-tials and Trends in Arab Countries", Cairo, CDC, 1971, Mono. Ho.2

a c **s e x

I l l

i P- O» i.

I °

a! r

* 4 «n

C •

^ I

-i ^*w Í"

Siojo « -

11Or* • c • B

»La HXNua sis ;

se u< *

Table (12)

Percent of the Total Population in each Governorate*

Egypt, 1927-1966

Governorate Tear

Cairo. . •- "Alexandria-Port SaidIsnailia •S u e z •'••-'.

BaniettaDaJcabliaSharkia ..KalyubiaKafr £1 SheikhGharbia :MenoufiaBaberaGizaBeni SuefFayoumKinyaAssiutSubag ..KenaAswanRed Sea.New ValleyHatruhSinai .

Total

1927

7.64.20.70.5

, 0.31.27.77.5».l :3.47.77.56.7».2».23J>7.25.66.86.41.9

0.20.30.1

100.0

1937

8.24.50.7

o.e0.31.37.77.34.03.57.37.6.5•4.4.4.23.87.15.67.06.41.90.10.20.30.1

100.0

1947

10.95.00.90.90.61.47.77.13.83.66.85.96.44.53.83.S

e.r5.56.85.81.50.10.20.40.2

100.0

1960

12.95.80.91.10.8l.S7.87.03.83.76.65.26.55.13.33.2

• 6.05.16.15.21.50.10.10.40.2 .

100.0

1966

14.06.0

' 0.9 ' ••' .'-,.

1.1-0.9.1.4 .7.67.04.03.7

• • 6 . 3 •

4.86.6 i

' S.5 ; •

3.13.15.74.75.6 :

1.91.7 :0.10.2 ,0.4 :0.4

100.£ .'

* Louer Egypt includes the first 13 governorates in the ta- J»,whereas Upper Egypt comprises the next 6 governorates. .,-.« lastfour are the Frontier Governorates.

113

Table (13)

Net Internal Migration of the Population

Governorates of Egypt during the Period.1965-1970

Governorates .

CairoAlexandriaDamietteDkahliaSharkiaKalyubiaKafr El SheikhGharbiaHenoufia •Be her a ! '.•G i z a • • ! •_

Beni-SuefFayum ' ,Menia . ; ;Asyut ; \Suhag-, ' . 'Qena '.' .Aswan . :

Hales

-222.6- 24.9"- 13.2- 33.9- it.7- 62.2- 2.8- 14.3

•>- 2 5 . 1

;- 23.9•:- 91.6"- 31.3- 7.9- 35.1'- 29.6- 42.3- 29.2- 52.3

Femaies

-205.7"- 23.1 -- 12.9- 45.3- 61*.3- 59.1- 6.7- 26.6- 20.1- 45.4- 78.1- 2t.5- 1.7- 28.0- 31.0- 32.8- 27.1*- i*<t.8

Total

-1*28.3- H8.Ö- 26.1- 79.2-119.0-121.3- 3.9- i»0.9- 45.2- 75.3-169.7- 55.8- . 9.6- 63.1- 60.6- .95 .'I- 56..6 '- 37.[X]

Average Annual RateOF Met Migration'

- 2.1 .- 0 . 5- 1.2 - -- 0.7- 1.1 -- 2.1- 0.1- O.i*- 0.6- 0.8- 2.1- 1.2- 0.5- 0.7- 0.9- 1.1- 0.8- 3.9 '

Ill»

c

a>oH

oLO

Cu s« 0> VO X

SIC ¿3

C -3•* a

10

c10

»4 CO - I

•ob OO O-a us <3

3

NS

l / l

illa

10Em

Said

Port

andr la

Alex

0

•H

CJ

09

Z

nV

i-taE

Nales

aH10S

Maies

Females

a-tmz

no10

B

n-1<9Z

Age

Group

U )

1

1

CO

CM

1

1

1

CM

M

1

- 0.9

i

-ar»

l

~ l

-36

en

i

ir» <o H m H

CM Ci M

1 1 1 1 1

CO

1 1

<a H

^ H

CO iO

1 1

«H -H

CM -H

1 1

f (0

•H

1 1

O> i/>

CM O

3 O

t - CO

1 1

CM <n

r» ^

i i

CM trt

C^ artCM r>l l

l i

O Oi H CM

H H CM

CM

1 1 1

00 t-\ H

1 II

CI) U l »H

1 1 1

CM CM 3-

• 1 1

O> IO Pï

1 1 1

a> H o

i i i

P» f » CO

r» c>

i i i

M H

1 1

1 1

• - «

1 1

• CM

I I

• M -

1 1

~l M

1 1

S O

1 1

í onn<0

^ CM

1-4r i i

t - IO O

<Ö CT ^CM

1 1 1

1 > 1

O O O-o i- m

CM

f 1

* U 1

^ CM

1 1

i I

1

O

-10

w

o

1

C I

m

o

i -

i

-35.3

-36.7

133.5

oo

"•

~410

o

IIS

(000)

Table (15)

Net' Internal Migration of the Population

in Governorates of Egypt during

the Period 1965-1970

Governorates

CairoAlexandriaDamietteDakahliaSharkiaKalyubiaKafr £1 SheikhGharbiaMenoufiaBeheraGizaBeni-SuefFayunMeniaAsyutSuhagQenaAswan

Miles

+ 222.• 24.+ 13.• 33.• 54.+ 62.- 2.+ 14.- 25.+ 28.+ 91.- 31- 7.- 35- 29- 42- 29+ 52

692972831 -9639163.2.3

Females

• 205+ 23• 12+ 45.+ 64+ 59+ 6+ 26- 20+ 46+ 78- 24

1- 28- 31- 52- 27+ 44

.7

.1

.9

.3 .

.3

.1

.7

.6

.1

.4

.1

.5

.7

.0

.0

.8

.4

.8

Total

+428.3+ 48.0+ 26.1+ 79.2•119.0•121.3+ 3.9+ 40.9- 45.2• 75."3~+169.7- 55.8- 9.6- 63.1- 60.6- 95.1- 56.6+ 97.1

Average Annual Rateof I.'et Migration

+ 2.1+ 0.5

- + 1.2+ 0.7+ 1.1• 2.1+ 0.1+ 0.4- 0.6

" + 0.8"+ 2.1- 1.2- 0.5- 0.7- 0.9- 1.1- 0.8+ 3.9 -.

10I-

oin

V G»V HHJ IU Oo (Oe o>(. -HU> C0 «o o

2B *rd ja

3 X1 V —e uio oas "o o

c wB fl

• - • •O

* * <BIQ QU <-•

•H MX B

at,wXIs9z

OUu

Total

om

O)

loCI

or«

X

1*.

s

t -

X

v >o) O< a

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 I 1 I 1 1

ri c* n nnwo H Bi I I 1 I I 1 l i l i I I 1 1

i i i i i i i i i i i l l i

H >HCDHU>mi-C4<OOOCI<-ICM"

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

i n a u > < O i 0 M r > o < D U > c i r - <out c*

-il l l l 1 l l 1 i i 1 l i l l

u» « « o * S. o. o ri «o m c o. « f. :

r tHHH ^ C»I l l l l l l l l l l l l l l

A O 91 ^ CO ^4 A M m ^4 t^ O CO ( f ^

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

» • t» t » « «*» O O «•> C« O> 10 O» M C *

Camiette

Dakahlla

Shark la •

Kalyoubia

Kafr El Shaikh

Gharbla

Menoufla

Behira

Glza

Béni Suef

Fayum

Minai

Assiut

.Sohag

Kena

117

Fig.(A-2) Distribution of Urban Population in Egypt*

i o u r e e ! D?. «ohaned S ob fci Abdel í. ; kin,, «The Population of Egypt a •ve=,osrapaic Study", The Bulletin of the Faculty of Arts, Cairo Uni-versxty, Vol.XXIX, Parts 1 i 2, Í967, pp 17-u*

1. From South UpperEgypt to Cairo.2. From South UpperEgypt to Alexandria3. From South UpperEgypt to Suez CanalArea.

. 4. From South UpperEgypt to Read Coastand Sinai5. Froa North UpperEgypt to Cairo.6. From Kena toAswan. '•' . .7. From the Deltat o C a i r o ._•.•••-.-8. From East Deltato Suez Canal Area,9. From West £North Delta toAlexandria. '10. From South Deltato North Delta. .

Fig.(A-3) Streams of Internal Migration in Egypt*

»Source; Dr. Mohamed Sobbi Abdel Hakim, "The Population of'Egypt aDemographic Study", The Bulletin of the Faculty of Arts, Cairo Uni-versity, Vol.XXIX, Parts 1 £ 2 , 1967, pp.l7-<m.

119

IL- in fljr.r Ei'-.r' I"?-")

i;I ! :.\ y.t too

uw sooBOO 15O0

fiO 12Q ISO

0.*

Fig.(A-1*) Population Density in Rural Egypt*

-Source: Cr. Mohamed Sobhi Abdel Hakim,"The Population of Egypt aDemographic Study", The Bulletin of the Faculty of Arts, Cairo Uni-versity, Vol. XXIX, Parts 1 6 2, 1967, pp.l7-i»<».

120'

Table (17) :

Percent of Labour Force in Each -Industry,

by Sex, Egypt, 1937rl960

Industry/Year

AgricultureMiningManufacturingConstructionElectricityCommerceTransportServicesNot adequatelydescribed

Total • . .' .

* rricultureMining - •ManufacturingConstructionElectricityCommerce . • ..Transport' . ;.tServicesNot adequatelydescribed

Total ;;

1937

69.5.2

6.32.3.4

7.52.711.1

• • a •

100.0,

66.60.0

•- 4.0. .0.20.28.0

- 0.2.20.5. * "

"o.s100.0

1947

Males16.8

.28.81.9.4

9.03.4

I*.5

• • * *

10O.0

Témales59.7,

5.2: • . 1

' • ' - • • . « » • > •

8.2... . 3 - •

26.1

'," , • • • •

• 100.0

1960

.39.62.2

. 5 - • '.-

8.43.6

15.6• '

2.5

100.0

43.3• ••>•'4.0 •

. • ' • o . i ' " • • - - '

o.i •. • ; ;

6.2••'• .- 0 . 4 " •: ; : : . .

' . 3 8 . 2 ; •.•."••"• -

100.0

121

Tsbie (13) .

Percent Distribution of the Labour Force by Status

for Age and Sex Groups, Egypt 1960

StatusEmployers Self-

"jiployeá EmployeesFamilyWorkers

Others Total

.Males6-9

10-141S-1920-2425-2930-3135-391*0-444S-»950-51*55-5960-64 '65- , .Not StatedTotal 6- ,

,6-9 ':10-1415-19 , :,.',.20-21» <

.25-23 :.- •30-31» ', , .35-39 ... '.i40-44 •'•45-49 .50-5«»55-39 ' '60-64

!65-Hot StatedTotal

1

6-910-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-44 "'45-49 .. .50-5455-5960-6465-

:iot StaredTotal 6-

.21.32.64.76.68.6

10.312.614.016.519.123.35.47.8

.2'.5 '

2.34.0S.66.47.58.4.9.612.84.81.9

.11.22.54.56.%8.

10.12.13.16.18,24.35.27.4

.4

.1

.3

.7

.3

.7

7.13.20.25.30.323"1535«•2ti; .3

2 3 . 7.

3 .7.

12.17.21.24,28.

; 30.37,40.

9.e

.2

.a

. 3 .

.7520130453

16.828.547.655.156.257.354.753.750.948.3

37.027.946.248.3

' 23 .352.361.8

' 73.463.861.756.022.752.252.447.846.240.3

. 9.554.9

Both Sexes

•".76.9

12.619.9 ,2S.230.032.033.335.235.341.145.79. :

19.934.349.156.457.027.5S».753.350.949.04Ë.037.928.334.943.3

80.155.728.825.316.79.35.42.61.5.7.5.14

.43.2

17.7

67.343.725.113.1.14.8IS.414.110.310.76.77.94.4

' 4.02.*

28.5

76.860.437.424.416.5:9.65.33.01.9.1.0.7.5.5

3.018.5

2.94.S4.93.81.71.1. .8.9.8.9

l.U• . 9 :

.635.52.1

3.83.3

10.19.26.87.98.37.36.3.5.45.12.9.2.4

73.86.4

3.24.55.54.22.01.41.21.21.11.21.1.9.7

47.42.4

100.0100.0100.0100.3100.0100.3100.0100.0100.0100.3100.0100.0100.0100.0

ico.o

100. C100.3100.G100.0100.3100. ö100.0100.0100.3100.3100.0100.0100.0

.100.3100.0

100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.3100.0100.0100:0100.3

12!

Table (19)

Sunmary of Results Assuming Constant Fertiliy

- and Declining Mortality (sin(D) ;

Time '

19501970198019902000201020352060

Age CompositionPercentage Disc

0-lt

t2.5039.72tO.07tl.15t0.79tl.22tl.57tl.73

15-64

St.3956.6955.875t.t9St.895t.985t.St5t.t3

65-

3.123.59t.06t.36t.323.803.893.8t-

Hedíana g«

19.2919.6820.1319.6t19.5819.5019.2219.lt

CBR

t2.8t41.65t2.77t0. 84tO.79tl.22tl.33tl.16

Tital Characteristic

COK

17. tB16.t716.2315.22It.3613.8013.7013.62

R

2.5t2.522.652.562.652.7t2.762.75

CRR

3.013.013.013.013.013.013.013.01

NRR

2.032.082.132.192.252.282.2S2.28

Saurcer A. Khalifa and M. El Rouby."Aging of Population,of Egypt:Past and Future Trend"in Egyptian Population and FamilyPlanning Review, Vol.t, December 1972

123

Table (20)

Summary of Results Assuming Constant Mortality

•and Declining Fertility (sin (2))

1

Time

19601970198019902000201020352060

Aging Measures

Percentage Dis.0-

•*233363532282525

14

.50

.14

.21

.31

.:4

.49

.94

.33

15-64

54.57

Ja24

59.325962666564

84

:e.14.58.17

ob

3.3.4.4.5.5.8.

10.

-

Í26247582336871,9

MedianAge1319212242723131

.29

.89

.£4

.99

.66

.13

.05

.85

Vital Characteristics

: X3R

42.38.36.32.27.26.23.32.

t>4;i670 5781053

:a

CDR

1716161615151819

.4t!

.63

.31

.31

.32

.90

.00

.51

R

2.542.161.991.571.201.02• S4.38

GRR

32221111

.01

.71

.41

.11

.31

.66

.66

.66

NRR

2.031.831.621.421.221.121.121.12

Source: Sam« as Table 19

12«

Table (21)

Summary of Results Assuming a Simultaneous

Decline in Fertility and Mortality (sim (3))

Time

19601970198019902C00201020352065

Aging MeasuresPercentage Ois.

Q-14

42.5093.2437.3836.1533.2230.0927.2927.42

15-64

54.3957.1458.6459.0061.5364.6264.1763.02

65-

3.123.624.254.855.265.297.92

29.81

MedianAge

19.2919.3621.4122.5123.9426.0729.1729.81

Vital Characteristics-...

CRR

42.E439.0736.2431.1527.3525.3923.7223.70

CDR

17.4815.8115.£114.0713.1212.9614.7715.93

R

2.542.232.111.741.421.280.880.76

GRR

3.012.71,2.412.111.811.661.661.66

NRR

2.031.87-1.711.531.351.251.251.25

Source: Same as Table 19.

125

Table (22) -

. . ' Summary of Results Assuming Constant Fertility and

Mortality Conditions at the Levels of I960 (sim CO)

Tine

19601970198019902000201020352065

Aging MeasuresPercentage Dis.0-14

4239394039393939

.50

.62

.56

.27

.52

.41

.38

.16

15-64

54.56.56.55.56.56.56.56.

3967583512703618

65

3.3.3.4.4.3.3.4.

1259063837902635

MedianAge

19.19.20.20.20.20.20.20.

2971331328545047

C3R

4241434141424141

.34

.80

.32

.65

.66

.22

.58

.68

Vital Characteristics |

C

1717181717181813

"R

.48

.34

.09

.96

.95

.00

.05

.06

R

2.2.2.2.2.2.2.2.

5445523737423836

GRK

33333333

.01

.01

.01

.01'.01.01.01.01

HRR

2.032.032.032.032.032.022.032.03

Source: Sane as Table 19.

12 6 '

. Table (23) . : ,

Summary of Results Assuming the Attainment

of Replacement Level in Egypt after 40 Years of 1960

(sim (5) )

Time

19601970198019902000201020352065

Aging Measures > •.Percentage Dis.

0-14

42.5039.0036.0033.3528.5824.9922.6722.55

15-66

54.3957.3759.6661.5365.5868.3866.8364.63

65-

3.123.634.365.125.846.12

10.5112.81

MedianAge

19.29.19.SS22.0324.0226.6929.5934.1334.78

•'•-- • Vital Characteristics

CBR

42.8336.3132.8226.3421.7921.7718.3618.67

CDR

17.4815.4914.6313.4413.1813.0217.1318.96

R

2.542.081.821.29.86.78.17

~ .03

GRR

3.02.562.121.671.361.361^361.36

HRR

2.031.771.S01.22l.CO1.00l.CO1^00

Source:*. Sam« as'Table 19.

127

Table (24)

Total National Income and tPer-capita Income ,

in Egypt fron 1952/53 to 1969/70 Constant Prices

(1952-1953)

it .

Years

1952/S31953/5"»1954/551955/561956/571957/581958/591959/601960/611961/621962/631963/61»1964/651965/661966/671967/681968/691969/70

NationalIncome

Killions

806.0871.0930.0881.0897.0959.0985.0

1091.01139.01190.0132U.01416.01480.01554.01559.01541».G1632.01746.3

AnnualIncrease

%

• • • •8.16.8

- 5.6l.S6.92.7

10.84.44.5

11.36.94.55.00.3

- a.95.'77.0

Per-capitaIncome L.E.

37.139.140.837.737.539.939.4»2.643.344.248.029.950.752.251.849.451.053.2

Annual Increase

%

• • • -S. h4.3 '

- '7.6- 0.5

6.4- 1.38.11.6

. ' . ' 2 . 1 •- • • •

8.64.01.62.9

- 0.8- 4.6

3.24.3

Source: CAPMAS, Population and Development, op. cit.