the place of foresight in policy making system, the...

by Philippe Destattedirector of The Destree Institute

FOR-LEARN Expert WorkshopPositioning of Foresight

in the Policy Making System

Sevilla, IPTS, December 2, 2005

The Place of Foresight in policy making The Place of Foresight in policy making system, The experience of Walloniasystem, The experience of Wallonia

OutlineOutline

RationaleRationale

1. The situation of Foresight in Wallonia1. The situation of Foresight in Wallonia

2.The 2.The modelmodel of Governanceof Governance

3. Foresight as a 3. Foresight as a tooltool for governancefor governance

FiveFive micromicro--outputsoutputs for FORfor FOR--LEARN LEARN workwork

RationaleRationale

1. There has been an on1. There has been an on--going and continuous Foresight going and continuous Foresight process in Wallonia since 1985.process in Wallonia since 1985.

2. That Foresight process, called 2. That Foresight process, called «« Wallonia to the Future Wallonia to the Future »», , has been launched by the Destree Institute (Regional has been launched by the Destree Institute (Regional Development Research Centre and NGO), at its own Development Research Centre and NGO), at its own initiative.initiative.

3. After the success of the first exercise, the initiative has 3. After the success of the first exercise, the initiative has been supported been supported –––– by the Government of Wallonia.by the Government of Wallonia.

4. The Governance model has provided a new 4. The Governance model has provided a new comprecompre--hensionhension of the social environment and allowed new of the social environment and allowed new orientations to the Foresight process.orientations to the Foresight process.

1. The situation of Foresight in Wallonia1. The situation of Foresight in Wallonia

1985-1988 : Wallonia to the Future, Towards a new paradigm

1988-1994 : Wallonia to the Future, The Challenge of Education

1994-1996 : Wallonia to the Future, What are the strategies for employment ?

1996-2000 : Wallonia to the Future, Leaving the 20th Century : Evaluation, Innovation, Foresight.

Foresight in WalloniaForesight in Wallonia

Phase of Phase of endogenousendogenous developmentdevelopment

Wallonia to the futureTowards a new paradigm

1987

Wallonia to the futureThe Challenge of Education

1991

Wallonia to the futureWhat are the strategies for

employement ?1995

Wallonia to the futureLeaving the 20th Century :

Evaluation, Innovation, Foresight1998

EVALUATION

FORESIGHT

1999

2000

2000

IWEPSWallonia 2020

2003

1999

Wallonia to the Future (1985Wallonia to the Future (1985--2005)2005)

The DestreeThe DestreeInstituteInstitute

Foresight UnitForesight Unit

1999 : Evaluation and Foresight Society of Wallonia2000 : Workshop Foresight and Regional Development2000-2004 : Foresight Mission Wallonia 212001-2004 : Wallonia to the Future : Wallonia 20202002- : Province of Luxembourg 2010

Province of Liège 2020Country of Herve to the futureZukunftsbild / Vision 2020 Large RégionProspEnWal 4 X 4 to undertakeCreation of IWEPS

2004 : Knowledge Regions: SPIDER, METAFORESIGHT Charleroi 2020Regional College of Foresight

2005 : Conference The Futures of Europeans in the KSForesight of the Internet International WorkshopPicardie wallonne 2025

Phase of Phase of integratedintegrated developmentdevelopment

2. The 2. The modelmodel of Governanceof Governance

The process of governance isthe process whereby an organization or society steersitself, and the dynamics of communication and controlare central to that process.

Steven A. ROSELL ea,Governing in an InformationSociety, Montréal, 1992.

Governance, according to Steven Governance, according to Steven RosellRosell (1992)(1992)

The command mechanismof a social systemand its actions thatendeavor to providesecurity, prosperity, coherence, order and continuity to the system.

Governance according to the Club of Rome (1991)

Alexander KING &Bertrand SCHNEIDER,The First Global Revolution,NY, 1991.

UNDP defines governance as the exercise of political, economic and administrative authority in the management of a country’s affairs at all levels. Governance comprises the complex mechanisms, processes and institutions through which citizens and groups articulate their interests, mediate their differences and exercise their legal rights and obligations. Good governance has many attributes. It is participatory, transparent and accountable. It is effective in making the best use of resources and is equitable. And it promotes the rule of law.

Governance according to UNDP (1997)

Governance for Sustainable HumanDevelopment, A UNDP Policy Document, United Nations DevelopmentProgramme,January 1997

.

Daniel KAUFMANN, AartKRAAY, Pablo ZOIDO-LOBATON, Governance Matters, in PolicyResearch Workingpapers, nr. 2196, WorldBank, 1999.

Governance according to World Bank (1999)

We define governance broadly as the traditions and institutions by whichauthority in a country is exercised. This includes (1) the process by whichgovernments are selected, monitoredand replaced, (2) the capacity of the governement to effectively formulateand implement sound policies, and (3) the respect of citizens and the state for the institutions that govern economicand social interactions among them.

.

European Governance,A White Paper,July 25, 2001, p. 8.

Governance according to EC (2001)

« Governance » means rules, processes and behaviour that affect the way in which powers are exercised at European level, particularly as regards openess, participation, accountability, effectiveness and coherence.

Classical PublicAdministration

Program / agency

Hierarchy

Public vs private

Command and control

Management skills

New Governance

Tools

Networks

Public + private

Negociation and persuasion

Enablementskills

Lester M. Salamon, The Tools of Government, 2002, p. 9.

The new Governance Paradigm (2002)

Governance includes the state, but transcends it by taking in the private sector and civil society. All three are critical for sustaining human development. The state creates a conducive political and legal environment. The private sector generates jobs and income. And civil society facilitates political and social interaction -mobilising groups to participate in economic, social and political activities. Because each has weaknesses and strengths, a major objective of our support for good governance is to promote constructive interaction among all three.

Governance according to UNDP (1997)

Governance for Sustainable Human DevelopmentA UNDP Policy Document, United Nations Development Programme,January 1997

Governancefor SustainableHuman Development,New York, 1997.

The three stages of GovernanceThe three stages of Governance

PublicPublicSectorSector

CivilCivilSocietySociety

PrivatePrivateSectorSector

State CivilSociety

Private Sector

UNDP + Sam AGERECommonwealthSecretariat,Management and TrainingService Division, 2000.

Governments& markets

Governments& citizens

Governments &volontary or private sectors

elected(politicians)& appointed

(civil servants)

Local Governments& Inhabitants

Legislative &the executive

nation states& international

institutionsCompanies

and citizens ?

Executive &judicial

Companies& judicial ?

Central Stateand territories ?

The seven (?) types of relations in a complex system of governance


The three stages of Governance The three stages of Governance




strong issue :the capacity of theactors who areworking at theinteractionbetween the three stagesof governance

To reinforce the interaction between the three stagesTo reinforce the interaction between the three stages





3. Foresight as a 3. Foresight as a tooltool for Governancefor Governance

Evaluation andForesight Society

of Wallonia

Contractfor the

Future ofWallonia

The Destree Institute

Club Governanceof 4 X 4 toUndertake

Wallonia Mouvementfor Quality

etc.

SDER

Identifying places of interactions for the GovernanceIdentifying places of interactions for the Governance

Project of Project of RegionalRegional Foresight Foresight SystemSystem (1999)(1999)

1. Foresight 1. Foresight ResearchResearch Group on Group on DynamicsDynamics of of Wallonia SocietyWallonia Society..

2. Foresight 2. Foresight ResearchResearch Group on Group on CompaniesCompanies and and RegionalRegional DevelopmentDevelopment..

3. Foresight 3. Foresight ResearchResearch Group on Group on Governance and Governance and TerritoryTerritory..

Gouvernementwallon

ACTEURS

INSTITU-

TIONNELS

ACTEURS

INDIVIDUELS

QUALIFIES

ACTEURS

ASSOCIATIFS

LaWallonie

auFutur

LIEUX

RESEAUX D’ACTEURS

- politiques- économiques

- sociaux- culturels

EnvironnementSanté

LogementEntreprises...

selonla nature

de lathématique

SOCIETELOCAL REGIONAL EUROPEEN GLOBAL

temps

HistoricitéFutursTrends

ENJEUX

IMPLICATIONS

Démarche prospective

Articulation Gouvernance régionale – Société civile

identification des enjeux/ stratégies

/ orientations

logistiqueméthodologieinformation

animation du SPR

Pôle de Prospective de l’Institut Jules-DestréePôle de Prospective de l’Institut JulesPôle de Prospective de l’Institut Jules--DestréeDestrée

RESEAUX

Système régional deProspective

- Décisions- Actions- Mise en

œuvredu Contratd’Avenir

STATEGIQUES

Cellule deCellule deGouvernanceGouvernance

du MPdu MP

- Appui miseen œuvre

- Évaluation- Implications

stratégiquesdes enjeux

PublicSector

CivilSociety

Private Sector


The use of foresight in the three stagesThe use of foresight in the three stages

ProspEnWal

Identification et diagnosis

Setting out the long-term issues

Building the common vision

Elaborating a strategic axis programme

Recommendations

1 5432

1. Tenexternaltrends

2. Thirty issuesfor

Wallonia

4. Thirtystrategic

axis

Changeanalysis

Global change Regional Change

3. The three ultimateaims of the Contract

for the Future

5. Twentyrecommendations

for 2004-2009

The The FiveFive nonnon--linearlinear stepssteps of the FMW 21of the FMW 21

PublicSector

CivilSociety

Private Sector



25meetings

to produceand

validate

12stratégicoptions

75meetings

to produceand

validate

4issues

To definethe

issues

7meetings

to produceand

validate

15innovative

actions

To identify thedesirable and

possible futures

To proposestrategic

axis

To makecommon

recommendations

Januari 2002 October 2003

ClosingConferenceOctober 25,

2003 in Namur

The process of Wallonia 2020

PublicSector

CivilSociety

Private Sector



ProspEnWal

Companies

Policy for c

ompanies

Foresight

2003

2020- environment- factors of change- competitivity

- tools- initiatives- cost/efficacity

- issues- strategic orientations- concrete actions

The long term vision of a policy for companies in WalloniaThe long term vision of a policy for companies in Wallonia

Node Group

Globalisation &Enlargment

Prospenwal

Organisation &entrepreneurship

Sectors &Technologies

january-february

Issues Orientations Actions

april-may

september-october

Gameof

roles

PublicSector

CivilSociety

Private Sector



ProspEnWal

ProspEnWal

Integration of Foresight in the three stages of GovernanceIntegration of Foresight in the three stages of Governance

Expl

orat

oria

l For

esig

ht

to b

uild

a st

rate

gic

visi

on in

volv

ing

the

stak

ehol

ders

Normative Foresightinvolving companiesleaders, experts and

public decision-makers

Normative, citizen

and

deliberativeForesight,

at the outset of the

actors

Foresight insideForesight insidethe Governancethe Governanceof Walloniaof Wallonia

MPW 21March 2001 – May 2004

Wallonia 2020

December 2000 – May 2004

ProspEnWal October 2002 – December 2003

CONTRACT

FOR

THE

FUTURE

LEARNING

REGION

ForesightMission

Wallonia 21(MPW21)

Wallonia2020

WALLONIA

1

2345

7

L

I

S

B

O

N8

Foresight issues in Wallonia : governance, vision and learning region

Eight areasof change

issues

Transversalissues

TRENDS

&

ISSUES

6

Foresight forCompanies

Policy(Prospenwal)

A betterdevelopmentbetter shared

A KnowledgeRegion asrenewal

To exist as actor onthe map of a Europe

and of a worldbased onsolidarity

The

personal

welfare of

the inhabitants

of Wallonia

A new vision for the Future of WalloniaA new vision for the Future of Wallonia

PublicSector

CivilSociety

Private Sector

Knowledge, learning and creative region

The Foresight Regional College : a new learning process

CONTINUOUS FORUMTO RENEWTHE MODEL

FiveFive micromicro--outputsoutputs for FORfor FOR--LEARN LEARN workwork

Qualities of theNew Governance

associatesthe stakeholders

pedagogy

multilevel(subsidiarity and partnerships)

transversal

sustainable

ethics and accountability

Contributionsof Foresight

collective intelligence

knowledge providingability to explain

identifies and combinesterritorial scales

systemic

temporality

honest and rigourous

The contribution of Foresight to Governance

Follow-up

Evaluation (ex post)

Appreciation

Check-up

DecisionImplemen

tation

Recommen-dations

Actual

SituationDesirable

Situation

Pilotage

Conception

Planning Programmation

Ressources

Priorities

Strategies

Mobilisation

WatchForesig

htThe cycle of policy and project

Evaluation (ex ante)Evaluation

(in itinere)

PolicyProject

Jean-Louis Dethier, 2005

Follow-up

Evaluation (ex post)

Appreciation

Check-up

DecisionImplemen

tation

Recommen-dations

Actual

SituationDesirable

Situation

Pilotage

Conception

Planning Programmation

Ressources

Priorities

Strategies

Mobilisation

WatchForesig

htThe cycle of policy and project

Evaluation (ex ante)Evaluation

(in itinere)

PolicyProject

Jean-Louis Dethier, 2005

Foresight

Foresight

Programmation de la Mission Prospective pour le Gouvernement wallon

2009

Évaluation du CAW Mission prospective

2001

2002

2003

2004

12/2001 : rapport intérimaire

30/06 : Méthodologie

12/2002 : rapport final

2009

12/2002 : rapport prospective interne

12/2003 : rapport exploratoire pour la partie 2 du Contrat d’Avenir de la Wallonie

Suivi permanent par le SES

GroupeSociété civile

GroupeEntreprises

GroupeTerritoires

12/2001 : rapport prospective externe

12/2004 : premier rapport exploratoire pour le Contrat-projet wallon 2009-2014

2004 : Contrat d’Avenir(partie II)

Nouveaux contrats-projets wallons 2009 -

2014

2005

2006

2007

2008

2010

Liaison Cellule Gouvernance GW – Pôle Prospective 23.05.01

Wallonie 2020 : le cinquième congrès La Wallonie au futur

La Wallonie au futur

2001

2002

2003

2004

2004 : Contrat d’Avenir(partie II)

2005

10/01 – 11/01 : recrutement des acteurs

12/01 : constitution des groupes

01/02 : lancement des groupes02/02 – 06/02 : travail sur les enjeux

09/02 – 01/03 : travailsur les souhaitables / possibles

02/03 – 06/03 : travail sur les axes stratégiques

10/03 : Cinquième Congrès

Wallonie 2020

Hainaut occidental or Hainaut occidental or Picardie wallonne 2025Picardie wallonne 2025RoadmapRoadmap

Preparationof the Foresight

Foresight Diagnosis(actors and factors)

Setting out thelong term issues

Definition of strategic axis

Implementation ofthe concrete actions


2

1

3

4

5

6

t/m 0

t/m+ 3

t/m+ 6

t/m + 8

t/m+ 11

t/m+ 13

Inputs of thestakeholders

1

2

3

4

5

0t/m 0

t/m+ 3

t/m+ 6

t/m + 8

t/m+ 11

t/m+ 13

6Follow

up

Inputs of thestakeholders

Preparationof the Foresight

Foresight Diagnosis(actors and factors)

Setting out thelong term issues

Introduce strong follow-up system in Foresight


Definition of strategic axis

Implementation ofthe concrete actions

How to consider Foresight in policy making system ?

- Foresight as policy informing

- Foresight as policy facilitating

- Foresight as policy building

- Foresight as society moving+

Foresightas a toolfor helpingto builda betterdemocracy

FiveFive micro outputs for FORmicro outputs for FOR--LEARN LEARN workwork

1. The contribution of Foresight to Governance 1. The contribution of Foresight to Governance isisstrongstrong, but , but wewe have to have to makemake itit more more wellwell knownknown..

2. The place of Foresight in the Cycle of 2. The place of Foresight in the Cycle of projectsprojectsshouldshould be be extendedextended..

3. Foresight 3. Foresight hashas to to developdevelop realreal strategiesstrategies to to meetmeet the the policypolicy makingmaking agenda.agenda.

4. As the 4. As the credibilitycredibility of Foresight of Foresight isis directlydirectly linkedlinked to the to the achievementachievement of the of the recommendationsrecommendations, , wewe shouldshould investinvestin in followfollow upup systems and systems and toolstools..

5. Foresight 5. Foresight shouldshould be be valorisedvalorised as a as a deliberativedeliberative tooltoolfor for helpinghelping to to buildbuild democracydemocracy..

Thank you !Thank you !

Philippe DestattePhilippe Destatte

[email protected]@destree.org

www . www . walloniewallonie--enen--ligneligne . net. net

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