the mdg (millennium development goals) project in crisis midpoint review and prospects for the...

8/9/2019 The MDG (MIllennium Development Goals) Project in Crisis Midpoint Review and Prospects for the Future

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The MDG Project in Crisis

Midpoint Review and Prospects for the Future

4/2008

Jens Martens / Tobias Debiel

Ine

f

PolicyB

rief

Institut fr Entwiclung und Frieden


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INEFPolicyBrief4/2008

1 IntroductionThankstotheirmeasurableandtime

boundtargets,the

MDGshavebecomea

usefulinstrumentto

raisepublicaware

ness.

Sincetheirproclamationin2000,theMillenniumDevelopmentGoals(MDGs) have become the leitmotiv of international development

politics.WiththeMDGs,thedevelopmentdiscourseamonggovern

mentsandinternationalorganisationshasfocusedoneradicatingthe

mostextremeformsofhungerandpovertyaswellasonbasicsocial

servicesforthepopulation,aboveall inthefieldsofprimaryeduca

tion,healthandwatersupply.MostoftheMDGsarelinkedtoclear

quantitativeandtimeboundtargets,themajorityofwhicharetobe

attainedby2015.

Overthepastyears,theMDGshaveproventobeeffectiveinstimu

latingpublicinterest,havebeenaddressedinglobalcampaigns,and

havehad a considerablepoliticalmobilisation impact.Thiswas re

flected,forinstance,inthetwodeclarationsonsupportingtheMDGs

initiatedbyUK PremierGordon Brown inJuly 2007,whichwere

signedby22headsofstateandgovernment,includingFederalChan

cellorAngelaMerkel,aswellasby21corporateleaders(Commission

oftheEuropeanCommunities2008:13).MarkingtheMDGmidpoint,

theynoted that theworldwasnoton track inrealising thegoals,

concludingthat:

We

need

urgent

action

to

meet

this

development

emergency

if

the

world

is

togetbackontrack.1

AttheMDGhalf

time,anemergency

summitistobeheld

onthe25thSeptember

2008,attendedby

governments,busi

nessandcivilsociety.

To thisend, theycalled forasummitofgovernments,businessand

civil society. Taking the initiative, UN SecretaryGeneral Ban Ki

moonhasinvitedthepartiesconcernedtoaHighlevelEventonthe

MDGsinNewYorkon25September2008.There,however,thepar

ticipants of thismeeting are not only going tobe confrontedwith

deficits in the implementation of these goals. The debate over the

MDGs is characterisedby fundamental controversies about the at

tainabilityofthegoals,theirmethodology,thestrategiesoftheirim

plementationand

their

status

within

aholistic

development

ap

proach.

These debates havebecome all themore urgent on account of the

revisedpovertystatisticsprovidedbytheWorldBank.Newcalcula

tionsrate thenumberofpeople living inextremepovertyat1.4bil

lion,whichismorethan400millionabovewhathaspreviouslybeen

1 Cf.http://www.dfid.gov.uk/mdg/declarationheads07.asp(viewedon9Septem

ber2008)

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JensMartens/TobiasDebiel

assumed (World Bank 2008b).With this new calculation, themid

point reviewbecomesmore sobering, and the fragility of the data

baseappearsparticularlyclearly.Inanutshell,theMDGprojecthas

runintocrisis.Againstthisbackground,boththeagendaforthesec

ond half on theway to the 2015 goals and all post2015 strategies

have to take thepolitical, conceptual andmethodical challenges in

realisingtheMDGsintoaccount.

2 MDGs:Justthetipoftheicebergofinternationaldevelopmentgoals

Thesetofgoals,tar

gets

and

indicators

hasbeenextended

severaltimessincethe

MillenniumDeclara

tion.

TheabbreviationMDGstandsforanoriginalsetofeightgoals,18

targetsand

48

indicators.

In

anegotiating

process

among

the

UN,

IMF,WorldBank andOECD in 2000, theyweredistilled from the

resolutionsofworldconferencesofthe1990sasthesmallestcommon

denominator.

TheMDGcataloguehasbeenextendedseveraltimessince2000.Al

ready in itsfirstversion,whichtheUNSecretaryGeneralpublished

inhisRoadMapontheimplementationoftheMillenniumDeclaration

in2001(UNSecretaryGeneral2001),thecataloguepointsbeyondthe

originalsetofsevendevelopmentgoals,whichhadbeendefinedby

theUN, IMF,OECDandWorldBankascommonpriorities in2000

(IMF/OECD/WorldBank/UN2000). In theRoadMap,aneighthgoal

titled Global Development Partnershipwas added, above all in

responsetotheG77scriticismoftheonesidedsettingofthesepri

orities.Itreferstotheresponsibilitiesofthe industrialisedcountries,

inparticular in theareasof trade, financingdevelopment,debtcan

cellationandtechnologytransfer.Butunlikethegoalsforthedevel

oping countries,MDG 8 contains no quantitative timebound com

mitmentsbutmeregeneraldeclarationsofintent.

Following theJohannesburgSummitonsustainabledevelopment in

2002, the EnvironmentMDG (MDG 7)was supplementedby the

target to lowerby half theproportion of peoplewith no access to

sanitation.AsaresultoftheWorldSummit2005therangeoftopics

addressedby theMDGswas once again substantially extended in

2007,withthetargetofproductivefullemploymentanddecentwork

forall,thetargetofgeneralaccesstoreproductivehealthby2015,the

targetofensuringgeneralaccesstoHIV/AIDStreatmentandthetar

get of significantly reducing the current rate ofbiologicaldiversity

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lossby2010beingadded.2TheMDGcataloguesincevalidthuscom

priseseightGoals,21Targetsand60Indicators.Inspiteoftheexten

sions,theMDGsonlyformthetipoftheicebergofinternationalde

velopmentgoals,constitutingasitweretheMinimumDevelopment

Goals.

TheMDGsareonlya

smallpartoftheIn

ternationallyAgreed

DevelopmentGoals.

Therefore,mostof theUNofficialdocumentsdonot solely refer to

theMDGsbut to the InternationallyAgreedDevelopmentGoals,

includingtheMDGs.Thiswording,whichhasbeenurgedbothby

theG77andbygovernmentsoftheNorth,isaimedatpointingtothe

fact thatat theworldconferencesover the last twodecadesandon

other international occasions, severaldevelopmentgoalshavebeen

formulated that reachbeyond theMDGs and to the realisation of

whichthegovernmentshaveequallycommittedthemselves.Whereas

here,the

G

77

is

above

all

focusing

on

those

goals

addressed

to

the

richcountries, thegovernmentsof theNorthareaboveallstressing

commitmentsinthefieldofdemocracy,humanrightsandgoodgov

ernance,whichhavesofarnotbeenincludedintheMDGcatalogue.3

3 MostcountriesareofftrackInmostcountries

mostoftheMDGs

willnotbeachieved

by2015ifcurrenttrendscontinue.

In theiranalysisofprogressmadeso far inrealising theMDGs, the

UN,WorldBankandNGOsareinrelativeagreement:Theirreports,

especiallytheWorldBanksGlobalMonitoringReport,showthat in

mostofthecountriesmostoftheMDGswillnotbeachievedby2015

ifcurrenttrendscontinue.4

Thereclearlyarepositivedevelopmentsatgloballevel,suchasinthe

reductionoftheabsolutenumberofpeoplelivinginextremepoverty,

orintheincreaseintheworldwidepercentageofpeoplewithaccess

to clean drinkingwater.However, progress in eradicating poverty

hasbeendueverystrongly to theoverachievers inEastandSouth

Asia(Bourguignonetal.2008:7).Moreover,eveninthosecountries

2 Cf.UNDoc.E/CN.3/2008/29of12December2007.

3 InitsfirstreportinSeptember2008,theUNsMDGGapTaskForcecompiledthe

widerangeofcommitmentsexistinginthethematicareaofMDG8(creatinga

worldwidedevelopmentpartnership)aloneinaMatrixofGlobalCommit

mentscf.UN(2008a)andhttp://www.un.org/esa/policy/mdggap/.

4 Cf.e.g.WorldBank(2008a),CommissionoftheEuropeanCommunities(2008),

Bourguignonetal.(2008),Martens(2007)andtheUNsinteractivewebsite

http://www.mdgmonitor.org(viewedonthe9thSeptember2008),whichpro

videscomprehensiveinformationonrealisingtheMDGsin130countriesandre

gions.

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thathavemadeprogressatnational level, thishasnotbeen shared

equallywithin the countries.According toWorldBank surveys, in

those countries that have made particular progress in economic

growth, incomedisparitieshavealso increased,withChinaheading

the list.Measuredwith theGiniCoefficient, thegulfbetweenpoor

andrichhasshownasteadyincreasein42outof59countries(World

Bank2008a:35).

Successstorieshave

becomepossiblebe

causegovernments

haveweakenedpre

vious,moreambitious

goals.

IthasalsobecomepossibletospeakofprogressregardingtheMDGs

because thegovernmentshaveweakenedprevious,moreambitious

goals and extended the implementation periods. For example, the

UNsdecision to take 1990 as thebaseyear inmeasuringprogress

insteadof2000hasresultedinthegoalofhalvingtheshareofpeople

livingonlessthanonedollaradayalreadybeingreachedintheEast

AsiaPacific

Region

in

2000

owing

to

Chinas

economic

growth.

In

otherwords,thegovernmentsagreedonagoalin2000thattheyhad

alreadyachievedinthatveryyear.

Thereareparticularlygravedeficitsinthereductionofchildmortal

ity(MDG4)andmaternalmortality(MDG5)andregardingthegoal

of halving the proportion of people suffering from hunger (UN

2008b).Owing to theworldwide rapid increase inprices of staple

food,thereisadangerofthenumberofpeoplesufferingfromhunger

in thedeveloping countriesgrowing rather thandropping.Already

sincethemidnineties,theirnumberhadrisenfromjustunder800to

830million (20022004) (FAO 2007:130). Owing to the global foodcrisis,theUNHighLevelTaskForceontheGlobalFoodCrisis(2008:

9) reckonswitha further increaseofmore than100millionpeople.

ThoseinthecrisisregionsofAfricaareparticularlyhardaffected.

Thereappearstobe

noconnectionamong

successscoredindif

ferentMDGs.

Oneveryastonishingresultatmidpointishowlittleprogressamong

the variousMDGs is connected. Frequently, there is no significant

correlationbetweenthechangesregardingdifferentgoals,sothatthe

causes obviouslyneed tobe sought inverydifferentvariables and

policies.For instance, there isvirtuallyno linkbetweenMDG1 (re

ducingpoverty)andnonpovertygoals suchas childmortalityand

theprimaryschoolcompletionrate.Correlationsare lowamongthe

nonincomegoals,too(Bourguignonetal.2008:21).

Allinall,thecurrentpaceofprogressisfarfromsufficienttoachieve

theMDGs inallcountriesby2015.Apapercompiledbyrenowned

Europeanresearch institutions for theUKsDepartment for Interna

tionalDevelopment (DFID) and theDirectorateGeneral forDevel

opment of the European Commission (DGDEV) soberly states:

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MostcountriesinallregionsareofftrackonmostMDGs(ordatais

missingtoassessprogress),eventhosecountrieswhichhaveexperi

enced thebestgrowthperformances. (Bourguignonetal.2008:8)5

ThisstatementisalsobackedupbythedevelopmentsoftheGender

EquityIndex (GEI)and theBasicCapabilitiesIndex(BCI)published

bythecivilsocietynetworkSocialWatchonceayear.6Theseindexes

illustrate that anumber of countries, especially in SubSaharanAf

rica, are evenmoving away from the targets.Poverty, hunger and

childmortality tend to increase there rather than todecrease, even

thoughsomecountrieshaveclearlyscoredsuccesses,too.

4 Fragilestatehoodasanobstacletodevelopment

Thepoorfunctional

ityofstatestructures

hasaparticularly

graveimpactonsocial

development.

ThatSubSaharanAfricashouldbelaggingbehindsomuchisclosely

related to the fact thataparticularlyhigh shareof fragile statesare

locatedhereand that theseare showingdeficitsofa specialnature

regardingtheimplementationoftheMDGs.Dependingonthedefini

tionandthedatabase,40to60statesworldwidearecharacterisedby

anerosionofthemonopolyofforce,oftheruleoflawandalimited

effectivenessofstateinstitutions.Thispushesanyachievementofthe

MDGs into thedistant future.DFID (2005)assesses thesocialsitua

tionin

fragile

states

as

grave

in

comparison

to

other

poor

countries:

Percapitaincomeisjusthalfashighasinthereferencegroup.Child

mortality is twiceandmaternalmortalityeven three timesashigh.

Aroundathirdofthepopulationareundernourished;largesections

ofthepopulationaretroubledbymalaria.

AstocktakingbytheWorldBanksGlobalMonitoringReport(2007)

cameupwith similarlydramatic findings7. It states that8%of the

5 ThebackgroundpapertitledMillenniumDevelopmentGoalsatMidpoint:

Wheredowestand?waswrittenfortheEuropeanReportonDevelopment,

whichiscurrentlybeingcompiled.AtotaloftenauthorsfromEuropeanresearchinstitutesaswellasCornellUniversity,USA,wereinvolved.

6 Cf.http://www.socialwatch.org(viewedon9September2008).

7 BothDFIDandtheGlobalMonitoringReportbasetheiridentificationoffragile

statesontheWorldBankCountryPolicyandInstitutionalAssessmentrating

(CPIA),whichhasbeencriticisedfor,amongotheraspects,itsincomprehensible

classificationsandalackoftransparency.Forinstance,ForeignPolicy/TheFund

forPeace(2007)orRice/Patrick(2008)haverecentlyclassifiedfragilestatesina

differentmanner.However,thebasictendency,thatoffragilestatesperforming

poorlyintermsoftheMDGs,canprobablybeconfirmedbyandlargeindepend

entlyofthesourceofdata.

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populationindevelopingcountriesliveinfragilestates,while,simul

taneously, 16% of theundernourished children live there.What is

evenmoreworryingisthat30%ofthechildrenwhodidnotsurvive

theageof5yearswerefromthisgroupofcountries(Bourguignonet

al. 2008 8).This shows that it isnotonly structural socioeconomic

developmentproblems thatareendangering theachievementof the

MDGsbut that the functionality of state structures is of at least as

much central importance. Neoliberallymotivated scaling down of

statestructuresinthe1980saswellastheerosionofstateinstitutions

owingtoviolentconflicthave leftcrisisregionsherewithadifficult

legacytheovercomingofwhichneedstobetakenintoaccountmore

thaninthepastintermsofforwardlookingstrategiesfortheMDGs.

5 Methodologicalproblemscontinuetoexist

Thelackofastatisti

calbaseofeconomic

andsocialdatacom

plicatesanyassess

mentoftheMDG

process.

ThemidpointreviewofMDGimplementationiscomplicatedbythe

lackofaccuratestatistics.Inseveralcountries,neitherreliabledataon

thenumberofpeoplesufferingfromhungernoronmaternalmortal

ity,thespreadofHIVorthenumberofpeopledyingofmalariaeach

yearareavailable.Moreover,problemsalreadyexist regardingcon

sistency and the comparability of data over space and timewithin

individualindicators.

This

is

reflected,

for

example,

in

measuring

the

goalofhalvingtheproportionofthepopulationsufferingfromhun

ger,which,dependingontheuseofrelevantindicators(malnutrition

indicatorof theFAO,underweightchildren)mayvaryconsiderably

(Bourguignonetal.2008:1112).In78outof149developingcountries

andemergingeconomies,andthus inmorethan50percentofthese

countries, there arenot even any reliable statistics on thedevelop

ment of incomepoverty (WorldBank 2008a: 22).Progress and set

backs inachieving theMDGscannotbeaccuratelydeterminedwith

such aweak database.Atbest, rough estimates are possible. The

WorldBank

and

UN

statistics,

on

which

many

policy

recommenda

tionsanddevelopmentstrategiesarefounded,reflectalevelofaccu

racylackinganyscientificbasis.

Governmentsand internationalorganisationsarewellawareof this

deficit. For some years, they havebeen attempting to improve the

capacities to establish economic and social data in the developing

countries.In2004,theyadoptedtheMarrakechActionPlanforStatistics

(MAPS)tothisend,andinthefollowingyears,NationalStrategiesfor

theDevelopmentofStatisticswerecreatedinmorethan100countries

apositivesideeffectoftheMDGprocess.

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TheWorldBanks

povertymeasurehas

proventoolowin

termsofitsleveland

itsreference

magni

tudeinpurchasing

powerparities.

Measuring poverty itself represents a farweightiermethodological

problem.While the indicatorofextremepoverty (percapita income

oflessthanoneUSdollaraday)isexcellentlysuitedtocommunicate,

ithasbeenrandomlysetintermsofitslevel,andevenasathreshold

valueof extremepoverty, ithasproven tobe far too low forwide

regions of theworld. This is now also held tobe the caseby the

WorldBank,which iswhy its revisedpoverty estimatesofAugust

2008 put themain poverty line at 1.25US dollars (Chen/Ravallion

2008).The latestpovertyestimatesof theAsianDevelopmentBank

for16Asiancountriesarebasedonanaveragepovertylineof1.35US

dollars(in2005purchasingpowerparities)(AsianDevelopmentBank

2008).

AdditionalcriticismoftheWorldBanksmeasureofpovertyhasbeen

formulatedby

Sanjay

G.

Reddy

and

Thomas

W.

Pogge

of

New

Yorks

ColumbiaUniversity.Oneof theaspects they criticise is theWorld

Bankspracticeofexpressingthereferencemagnitudeinpurchasing

powerparities(PPP).This isaimedatenablingcomparabilityofna

tional data.With a PPP dollar, one can (theoretically) acquire the

sameamountofgoodsandservicesineverycountrythroughoutthe

world.However,thedefinitionofpurchasingpowerparitiesisbased

on international baskets of goods and services that have little in

commonwithwhat the poor consume. For the services taken into

account in thebaskets,which are often very cheap in developing

countries(e.g.

domestic

help),

are

in

little

demand

among

the

poor.

In

their consumption, they concentrate on staple foods, which are

tradedworldwide(rice,grain,etc.)andwhosepricesvarycompara

tively littlebetweenrichandpoorcountries.PoggeandReddycon

cludefromthisthatthenumberofpoorpeopleinlowincomecoun

triesisbeingunderestimatedbytheWorldBank(Pogge2007:10).

6 ReportsofsuccesssofarneedcorrectingTheraisingofthe

povertylineandthe

revisionofthepur

chasingpowerpari

tiesnecessitatesa

reassessmentofMDG

1.

Given the methodological insufficiency of purchasing power esti

matessofar,whichwerebasedonsurveysin1993,theWorldBank,

UNand severalother internationalorganisationsaswellas146na

tional statisticsauthoritieshaveembarkedona completelynewas

sessmentofpurchasingpowerstatisticsinamajorinternationalpro

ject, the InternationalComparisonProgram (WorldBank 2008b).8The

result, published inDecember 2007, is referred tobyWorld Bank

economistBrankoMilanovic(2008)asarevolutionofhistoricpro

8 Alsoseehttp://go.worldbank.org/VMCB80AB40(viewedon9September2008).

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portions.With the newmethod, the national income ofChina and

India,expressed inPPP,sankovernightby40percent.Compared

to previous estimates, Chinas share of the global gross domestic

productdropped from14 to10%,and thatof India from6 to4%

(WorldBank2008b:10).ForChina,owing tostatisticaladjustments,

theshareofabsolutepoorfortheperiodfrom1980to2004hasgrown

by20percentagepointscompared topreviouscalculations,and the

resultsoughttobesimilarforIndiaandBangladesh(Bourguignonet

al.2008:9).

Thenumberofpeople

livinginextreme

povertyexceedsesti

matessofarby400

million.

Theraisingofthepovertylineandtherevisionofpurchasingpower

paritiesbeardramaticconsequencesfortheassessmentofprogressin

achievingMDG1.Accordingtothemostuptodateestimatessofar,

thoseof2004,thenumberofpeoplelivinginextremepoverty(i.e.on

lessthan

one

PPP

dollar

aday)

had

dropped

to

986

million.

But

ac

cordingtotheWorldBanksrevisedestimates,theyareat1.4billion

people.9 World Bank economists Chen and Ravallion (2008) pub

lished thenew figures for the first time inAugust2008, inapaper

headedTheDevelopingWorldisPoorerThanWeThought,ButNoLess

SuccessfulintheFightagainstPoverty.Theyillustratedthesecondhalf

of the titlewith impressive figures: thenumber ofpeople living in

extremepovertyhaddroppedby500million,andtheirshareof the

worldpopulationhadevenbeenhalved.However,thisnewsofsuc

cesswasonlypossible since theauthorschose to take1981andnot

2000or

1990as

the

base

year.

Evenwith the new poverty assessments, the situation inAfrica is

particularlygrave.There, thenumberofpeople inextremepoverty

almostdoubledoverthelast25years(from202millionin1981to384

million in 2005).At 50.4percent, their shareof thepopulationwas

almostjustashighin2005asin1981(50.8percent).Andfortheother

regionsof theSouth,progresshasbeen significantly smaller too, if

themorerealisticpovertylineof2USdollarsadayistakenasabase.

Thenumberofpeoplehavingtolivebelowthisthresholdrosefrom

2.5to2.6billionbetween1981and2005.10

9 Numberofpeoplelivingonlessthan1.25USdollars(inpurchasingpowerpari

tiesof2005).

10 Thenumberhadrisento2.9billionby1999andhassincedropped.

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7 DonorcommitmentonthewaneDevelopmentassis

tance

has

dropped

waybelowthemini

mumrequiredto

achievetheMDGs.

Thegovernments arenotonlyofftrackwhen it comes to reducing

incomepoverty

and

numerous

other

goals

and

targets,

but

also

in

termsof theGlobalPartnershippostulated inMDG8.Thereportof

theMDGGapTaskForce(UN2008a)pointstoflaggingcommitment

on thepartof thewesterndonorcountries:Between1997and2005,

officialdevelopmentassistance (ODA)providedby the22members

of theOECDDevelopmentAssistance Committee (DAC)was still

risingsignificantly.In2005,at107billionUS$, itreached itshighest

level so far.However, thiswasaboveallaresultof takingcompre

hensive debt cancellations into account. But in the following two

years,developmentassistancedroppedbyaround13% (UN2008a:

viiviii).

The

decline

was

particularly

dramatic

with

Japan

and

the

UK

in2007.TheirODAwasreducedby30and29%respectivelywithina

singleyear.WiththeUSA,thereductionwas10%,andwiththeEU6

%11.TheMDGGapTaskForceestimatesthatthedonorcountrieswill

havetoincreasetheirdevelopmentassistanceby18billionUSdollars

by2010inordertoachievetheagreedgoals.

Continuedriskof

overindebtednessin

manycountries.

Gradualprogresshasbeenmadeinreducingthedebtburdenofthe

Highly IndebtedPoorDevelopingCountries (HIPC).Thanks tobi

andmultilateraldebtcancellation,the levelofdebtdroppedconsid

erablyfor33ofthe41HIPC.Nevertheless,theinitiativessofarhave

notbroughtaboutanylastingsolutiontothedebtproblemsofmanyof these countries. According to the IMF and the World Bank

(IDA/IMF2007:10),atleast12ofthemarealreadyrunningtheriskof

becomingoverindebtedagain.Atthesametime,in52countries,lar

geramountsofmoneyarestillflowingintodebtservicingthan into

healthcareexpenditure.12

11 OECDpressreleaseof4April2008.

12 RichardBoudreaux,Povertyreductionaidlags,studyfinds,in:LosAngeles

Timesof5September2008,http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la

fgpoverty52008sep05,0,1143073.story(viewedon9September2008).

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8 Recommendationsupto2015andbeyond

Inspiteofincreased

publicawarenessand

politicalsupport,

therearemassive

deficitsinMDGim

plementationboth

inNorthandSouth.

Theprimeobjectof theMDGs is todrawpublicandpoliticalatten

tion to themost severeproblemsofpovertyand socialdeprivation

andtoraisethepressureofexpectationsongovernments.TheMDGs

haveperformedthisroleoverthepasteightyears.However,there

sultssofarshowthatthegovernmentshavenotrespondedwiththe

necessarypoliticalmeasures. So far, the governments of theNorth

haveneitherbeen ready tomakesubstantialconcessions in interna

tional tradepolicy,norhave theyprovided their shareofnecessary

additionalresourcestoachievetheMDGsintheshapeoffreshmoney.

Alltoooften,thegovernmentsofmanydevelopingcountrieshaveso

far failed toconsistentlyorientate theirpolicies towardseradicating

poverty, overcoming income and wealth disparities in their own

countriesandmobilisingdomesticresources.Deficitsalsocontinueto

exist in thegovernance sector in several countries.The situation is

particularlygriminfragilestatesinwhichkeyfunctionsintheareas

ofsecurity,welfareandparticipationarehardlybeingfulfilled.

GordonBrownscallforanMDGemergencysummitin2008wasan

expressionof theadmittance thatgovernmentshaveso far failed to

meettheirresponsibilityfortheachievementoftheMDG.However,

focusingdevelopmentstrategiesoneradicatingpovertyalsobearsthedangerofpoliticsmerelyfiddlingaroundwiththesymptoms,with

outactuallyreachingtherootcausesoftheevil.Ifpovertyisaboveall

understoodasincomepoverty,theproposalsforsolvingtheproblem

of reducingpovertywillbe reduced to themonetary level. In con

trast,structuralissuessuchastheunequaldistributionofassets,land

andpoliticalpowerinthecountriesaffectedaswellastheframework

conditions of theworld economy and the impacts of globalised fi

nanceandcommoditymarketshavesofarbeengivenlittleattention

in theprogrammes on the implementation of theMDGs.This also

appliestoenvironmentalaspects,inparticulartotheconsequencesofclimate change.However,an incompleteproblemdiagnosis can re

sult in thewrongpolicy recipes andmay tend tobeanobstacle to

arrivingatanylastingsolutionoftheproblems.

InthesecondhalfoftheMDGprocessupto2015,thegovernments

should thereforeboth dealwith the deficits in the implementation

andmethodologyoftheMillenniumGoalsandfundamentallyreview

thepolicy recipes for their achievement.This encompasses the fol

lowingaspects:

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a)BindingtargetsinthecontextoftheGlobal

DevelopmentPartnership

Clearbinding

and

measurablecommit

mentsonthepartof

theindustrialised

countrieshavetobe

definedandimple

mented.

TheGerman

Federal

Government,

but

also

many

governments

of

the

South,arerightinpointingto,albeitfordifferentreasons,theMDGs

merelybeingpartofafarmorecomprehensivecatalogueofpolitical

commitmentsthatthegovernmentsenteredwiththedecisionsofthe

world conferences over the past two decades and theMillennium

Declaration of 2000. The practice of theUnitedNations to always

mention theMDGs in onebreathwith the InternationallyAgreed

DevelopmentGoals (IADGs) and to regard them as an element of

thesegoalsoughttoberetained.Thisappliesinparticulartothefor

mulationofnationaldevelopmentstrategies(MDGStrategies)and

thereview

of

the

implementation

of

the

goals

and

targets,

among

othersattheAnnualMinisterialReviewoftheUNEconomicandSocial

Council(ECOSOC).13

The governments ought to overcome the imbalance in the level of

commitment of theMDGs for industrialised and developing coun

tries.Thismeansdefiningthecontributionofindustrialisedcountries

in the shapeofclear,quantitative, timeboundand therefore check

ablecommitments.For thispurpose,MDG7and8ought tobeex

tended andput into concrete terms.Among other aspects, this ap

plies to commitments to reduceCO2 emissions in the industrialised

countries, to increaseODA transfersand toeliminate tradebarriers

andexportsubsidies.WithaviewtoMDG8,thereportoftheUNs

MDGGapTaskForce(2008a)providesausefulreferencedocument

inthisrespect.

With itsbindingODA timetable, theEU took an important step in

thisdirectionin2005.Buttoproveitsreadinesstorealisethistimeta

ble,allEUgovernmentsneedtotranslatethisplan intocorrespond

ingnationaltimetables.

Innovativefinancing

instrumentsandDonorIndexlongover

due.

The introductionof innovative financing instrumentsatglobal level

isoverdue for the financingofadditionalglobal tasks,especially inthe area of climate change and financemarket stability.Here, the

proposalsforinternationallycoordinatedtaxes,aboveallaCurrency

orFinancialTransactionTaxandaCO2 tax,areofparticular impor

tance.

13 WiththeMatrixofGlobalCommitmentscompiledbytheMDGGapTaskForce,

theUnitedNationshasprovidedausefulbasistothisend,cf.

http://www.un.org/esa/policy/mdggap/(viewedon9September2008).

12


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However,bindingcommitmentson thepartof theNorth regarding

thequantityofODAarefarfromsufficient.InthecontextoftheParis

DeclarationandtheAccraAgendaforActionofSeptember2008,the

governmentshavethereforeenteredcommitmentstoraisethequality

ofdevelopmentcooperation,too.But,incentralareassuchasunty

ingaid,theabolitionofpolicyconditionalitiesandthestrengthening

ofdemocraticownership,commitmentshavesofarremainedvague.

Inorder to systematicallymeasurehow theNorth fulfills itsdevel

opmentcommitments,acatalogueofcriteriaoraDonorIndicator(in

addition to the ODA/BNE Indicator) could be worthwhile instru

ments.A longertermoptioncouldbe thedevelopmentofaformof

Global Solidarity Index,which illustrates in amanner appealing to

thepublichowdevelopmentfriendlyacountryspoliciesaretowards

poorercountries

and

how

much

solidarity

itcan

muster

in

this

re

spect.14

b)LinkingtheMDGdebatewithahumanrightsbased

developmentapproach

Criteriabasedon

humanrightsre

quiredforanevalua

tionofMDG8.

The HighlevelTask Force on the Implementation of theRight to

Development (HLTF 2008),which operatesunder the umbrella of

theUNHumanRightsCouncil,makesaninterestingcontributionto

reviewingtheGlobalDevelopmentPartnership.AtitssessioninDe

cember2004,ititselfsetthegoalofintegratingthestatementsmade

in theMillenniumDevelopmentgoals relating toeconomic, finance

anddevelopmentpolicyinthehumanrightsactivitiesoftheUnited

Nations and linking developmentmore strongly to human rights

(Schorlemer 2006: 102).Moreover, in 2005, itwas commissioned to

develop criteria for the regularevaluationofMDG8 regarding the

righttodevelopmentexplainedinmoredetailina1986declaration.

Correspondingly,theHighlevelTaskForceisdevelopingandassess

ingsocalledcriteriaforperiodicevaluationofglobalpartnershipsfroma

rightto

development

perspective

(HLTF

2008:

Annex

II,

26

28).

Accord

ingly,globalpartnerships are tobedesigned institutionally to con

tribute to the achievement of human rights, consider particularly

vulnerablegroupsofthepopulationandpromotegoodgovernance,

14 TheWashingtonCenterforGlobalDevelopment2003hascreatedamodelfora

similarindexwithitsCommitmenttoDevelopmentIndex(CDI).Cf.Centerfor

GlobalDevelopment(2007)und

http://www.cgdev.org/section/initiatives/_active/cdi/(viewedon9September

2008).

13


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democracy, rule of law and effective anticorruptionmeasures. In

orderforthistowork,freedomofinformation,genderequityaswell

asconsultationandparticipationproceduresneedtobeensuredand

correspondinghumanandfinancialresourceshavetobeavailable.

Righttohealthofkey

importance.Special significance is currentlybeing attributedwithinMDG 8 to

target17,which isaimedatenablingaccesstoessentialdrugsataf

fordable prices in cooperation with pharmaceutical corporations.

Here,novelpublicprivatepartnershipsaregainingattention,suchas

theGlobal Fund to FightAIDS, Tuberculosis andMalaria and the

GlobalAllianceforVaccinesandImmunization(HLTF2008:Figs.46

47,7476).Suchpartnershipsofferopportunitiesprovided thatnew

resourcesaremobilisedand initiativescanbesupplementedbyUN

agencies and national governments (generally see Beisheim et al.

2008).At

the

same

time,

the

risks

and

limitations

of

such

multi

stakeholder partnerships are obvious. For they have a tendency to

promotethefragmentationofglobalgovernanceandtrendstowards

elitemodels of global governance, and they give national govern

mentstheopportunitytobypassresponsibilityandaccountabilityfor

coreareasofpublicwelfare.Lastbutnotleasttheyencourageaselec

tiveorientationofgovernanceoncommerciallyviablehealthprojects

(Martens2007a).Atthesametime,thecomprehensiveresponsibility

ofawiderangeofactorsisirrefutablyontheagenda.Inthesenseofa

humanrightsapproachindevelopmentcooperation(Hamm2003),it

oughtto

be

measured

against

the

degree

to

which

progress

can

been

made in implementing the right to health 15.The relevance of this

aspectwasalreadyemphasisedby thecorrespondingTaskForceof

theUNMillenniumProjectin2005:

The lackofaccess to lifesavingandhealthsupportingmedicinesforanes

timated 2billionpoorpeople stands asadirect contradiction to the funda

mentalprincipleofhealthasahumanright.(Leachetal.2005:1)

c)Functioninggovernanceandruleoflawas

preconditionsforMDGprogress

TheachievementoftheMDGscruciallydependsonthegovernability

andthechangesinpoliticalregimesintheSouth.Whilethisaspectis

15 SeealsoherethereportoftheSpecialRapporteurontherightofeveryonetothe

enjoymentofthehighestattainablestandardofphysicalandmentalhealth,

whichhasappearedtitledHumanRightsGuidelinesforPharmaceuticalCom

paniesinRelationtoAccesstoMedicines,

http://www2.essex.ac.uk/human_rights_centre/rth.shtm(viewedon9September

2008).

14


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clearly addressed under the headword GoodGovernance in the

MillenniumDeclaration, it is thennotadopted in theMDGs.How

ever,aminimumlevelofruleoflawisacentralpreconditionforthe

sustainableachievementof theMDGs,just likeanorderly transfor

mationofauthoritarian regimes.Moreover, there is the insight that

fragilestatesandcountriesinviolentconflictareconsiderablyworse

in implementingtheMDGscomparedtoreferencegroupsatacom

parablelevelofdevelopment.Theseaspectscannolongerbeignored

fordiplomaticreasonsbuthavetobeacentralaspectoftheMDG

Agenda.16

d)Supportingnationaldevelopmentstrategiesand

countriesowninstrumentstomeasurepoverty

Countryspecificde

velopmentstrategy

needsformulating.

SomeoftheMDG indicators, inparticular thepoverty linesof1US

dollaroreven1.25USdollarsaday,areoflittlerelevanceforanum

berofcountriesoftheSouth,suchasChileorUruguay.Butthisdoes

notmean that therearenoseriouspovertyproblems in thesecoun

tries.Aworldwideuniformmeasureofpovertywouldnot,however,

dojusticetothesecountries.Forthisreason,selfdeterminednational

developmentgoalsand the corresponding strategiesadapted to the

respectivelevelofdevelopmentofthesecountriesoughttobegiven

precedence.

Most countries have adopted national and sometimes even sub

national poverty lineswhich, as a rule, lie above the 1 dollar/day

mark. They include Bangladesh, Bolivia, Guatemala, Malawi and

Vietnam.Inthecontextofitsnationaldevelopmentstrategy,Vietnam

hasformulated12developmentgoalswhicharebasedontheMDGs

butgobeyondthem.ThesurveyofEuropeandevelopmentinstitutes

on Millennium Development Goals atMidpoint also presents a

scepticalviewof theuniversaluseofabsolutepovertymeasures,

andasanalternative,itproposestomonitorMDG1usingnational

poverty lines that are derived at using a consistent methodology

(suchasthecostofbasicneedsmethodthatisnowmostpopular in

developingcountries)(Bourguignonetal.2008:10).

Capacitiestoestablish

andprocessdataneed

strengthening.

Thebasisofanyeffectivedevelopmentstrategyneedstobesufficient

informationona countrys socialandeconomic situation.Thispre

supposes corresponding capacities to establish and process data.

16 Cf.alsoOECD/DAC2004,WorldBankIndependentEvaluationGroup2006and

BMZ2007.

15


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Onlyifagovernmentdisposesofcomprehensiveinformationonthe

povertysituationinitscountry,ifitknowswherechildandmaternal

mortalityisgreatest,andifitcanaccuratelydeterminethespreadof

HIVandAIDSitwillalsobeinapositiontotakethenecessarypoliti

calstepsandcalculatetheirfinancialrequirements.Asyet,inthema

jorityofthedevelopingcountries,therearestillconsiderableinforma

tiongapsinthisarea.Thisiswhydevelopmentcooperationoughtto

increasingly support the formulating and implementingofnational

actionplansondevelopingstatistics.

e)Reorientingthefocusfromdevelopmentgoalsto

developmentstrategies

Technocraticproblemsolutionstrategies

havereachedacul

desac.

WhereastherearehardlyanyfundamentalcontroversiesonthebasicgoalsandtargetssetintheMDGs,thewaysofachievingthesegoals

arebynomeansundisputed.Assuch,theMDGsdonotrepresenta

development strategy, as UN SecretaryGeneral Ban Kimoon also

noted in2007 (UNSecretaryGeneral2007: Item40).Superficialhar

monyregardingthegoalssometimesevencoversuptheseriouscon

troversies about the strategieswithwhich theMDGs ought tobe

achieved.Forexample, it ishighlycontroversialwhetherthegoalof

halving theproportion of those suffering from hunger ought tobe

achievedbyanewgreenrevolutioninAfricaandtheindustrialisa

tionofagriculture,astheUNMillenniumProjectsuggests.Insteadoftechnocraticproblemsolutionstrategies,thecultural,socialandgeo

graphicalpeculiaritiesofeachcountryought tobegivenmorecon

siderationwhen formulating itsdevelopment strategy.This iswhat

the agricultural research project InternationalAssessment ofAgricul

turalKnowledge,ScienceandTechnologyforDevelopment(IAASTD)also

demandsregardingcopingwith theglobal foodsecuritycrisis in its

finalreportinApril2008.17

All in all, asTheoRauch (2007: 241242) rightly argues, a political

multilevelapproachisrequiredwhichsteerstheeconomicglobalisa

tionprocesswith tools includingsocialstandardsandselectivepro

tectionoptions,whichboostscompetitivenessatregionallevel,which

strengthentheruleof lawatthenational leveland increasestheac

cessofthepoortopublicservices,andwhichsupportstherepresen

tationoftheinterestsofthepooratthelocallevel.

17 Cf.herehttp://www.agassessment.org(viewedon9September2008).

16


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Structuralcausesof

povertyneedtobe

highlighted.

Thedevelopmentdiscourseshouldthereforerecollectcomprehensive

strategiesofsustainablehumandevelopmentandembed theMDGs

asoneelementinthesestrategiesThisalsomeansthatthestructural

causesofpoverty,whichhavesofarreceivedinsufficientattentionin

theMDG context, have tobe givenmore considerationwithin the

MDGdiscourse.Thisappliesinparticulartothegrowingincomeand

wealthdisparitieswithin andbetween countries, theirvulnerability

visvis crises on the international financemarkets, and the socio

economic consequences of climate change in the countries of the

South.

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Beisheim, Marianne/Andrea Liese/Cornelia Ulbert (2008): Transnationale

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tivitt ihrerGovernanceLeistungen, in:Gunnar FolkeSchuppertund

MichaelZrn(Eds.),GovernanceineinersichwandelndenWelt,PVS

Sonderheft41,pp.452474.

BMZ,2007:EntwicklungsorientierteTransformationbeifragilerStaatlichkeit

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(http://www.dfid.gov.uk/pubs/files/fragilestatespaper.pdf, viewed on

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FAO (2007): The State of Food and Agriculture 2007. Rome.

(http://www.fao.org/docrep/010/a1200e/a1200e00.htm, viewed on 9

September2008).

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ForeignPolicy/TheFundforPeace(2007):TheFailedStatesIndex.Washing

ton,D.C.:ForeignPolicyandtheFundforPeace.

(http://www.foreignpolicy.com/story/cms.php?story_id=3865, viewed

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menarbeitAnstzeundErfahrungenvonUNICEFundUNDP.Bonn:

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HLTF (2007):Reportof thehighlevel task forceon the implementationof

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HLTF (2008):Reportof thehighlevel task forceon the implementationof

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2008.Geneva,(HumanRightsCouncil,Eighthsession,WorkingGroup

ontheRighttoDevelopment;A/HRC/8/WG.2/TF/2,31January2008)

IDA/IMF (2007): Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative and

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Editor:

Institut fr Entwilung und Frieden, INEF

Geibelstrae 41 D - 47057 Duisburg

Phone +49 (203) 379 4420 Fax +49 (203) 379 4425

E-Mail: [email protected]

Homepage: hp://www.inef.uni-due.de

Layout design: Sasa Werthes, Jeanee Sade

C f t J Hi l Ulf T li d J S d

Jens Martens, Economist, Director of Global Policy Forum Europe and mem-

ber of the Coordinating Commiee of Social Wat, an international network

of more than 400 NGOs working on social development.

Contact: [email protected]

Tobias Debiel, Dr., Professor of International Relations and De-

velopment Policy on the Institute for Political Science and Direc-

tor of the Institute for Development and Peace (INEF), University of

Duisburg-Essen.

Contact: [email protected]

FACULTY

OF SOCIAL SCIENCES

The MDG Project in Crisis

Midpoint Review and Prospects for the Future

A sobering interim review is emerging at the MDGs midpoint. In order to get the world ba on tra in aieving

the Millennium Development Goals, at the invitation of UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, a high-level event ofgovernments, business and civil society is to be held in New York on 25th September 2008. This policy brief gives a

concise overview of the progress and decits in implementing the MDGs and highlights some methodological pro-

blems in the MDG concept itself. Seing out from this basis, it recommends necessary course corrections in order

to successfully continue the MDG project aer all. Its proposals contain clear and binding commitments on the part

of the industrialised countries, linking the MDGs with the human rights-based approa, promoting functioning

governance, strengthening capacities to establish and process data and re-embedding the MDGs into more compre-

hensive strategies of sustainable human development.

The Institute for Development and Peace (INEF) , whi was founded in 1990 is a resear institute of

the Department of Social Sciences at the University of Duisburg-Essen, located at the Campus Duisburg.It closely cooperates with the Peace and Development Foundation (SEF), Bonn. The Institute combines

basic resear with applied and policy-related resear in the following areas: Global Governance and

Human Security, Fragile States, Crisis Prevention and Civilian Conict Management, Human Rights and

Corporate Social Responsibility. Director of INEF is Prof. Dr. Tobias Debiel, the Executive Director is Dr.

Cornelia Ulbert.

Series INEF Policy Brief

The INEF Policy Briefs take up important current events and resear issues in a concise manner and

discuss a range of available policy options and recommendations. They are published at irregular intervals.

Jens Martens/Tobias Debiel: The MDG Project in

Crisis. Midpoint Review and Prospects for the

Future. Duisburg: Institute for Development and

Peace (INEF Policy Brief 4/2008, September)

the mdg (millennium development goals) project in crisis midpoint review and prospects for the...

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