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The MDG Project in Crisis
Midpoint Review and Prospects for the Future
4/2008
Jens Martens / Tobias Debiel
Ine
f
PolicyB
rief
Institut fr Entwiclung und Frieden
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1 IntroductionThankstotheirmeasurableandtime
boundtargets,the
MDGshavebecomea
usefulinstrumentto
raisepublicaware
ness.
Sincetheirproclamationin2000,theMillenniumDevelopmentGoals(MDGs) have become the leitmotiv of international development
politics.WiththeMDGs,thedevelopmentdiscourseamonggovern
mentsandinternationalorganisationshasfocusedoneradicatingthe
mostextremeformsofhungerandpovertyaswellasonbasicsocial
servicesforthepopulation,aboveall inthefieldsofprimaryeduca
tion,healthandwatersupply.MostoftheMDGsarelinkedtoclear
quantitativeandtimeboundtargets,themajorityofwhicharetobe
attainedby2015.
Overthepastyears,theMDGshaveproventobeeffectiveinstimu
latingpublicinterest,havebeenaddressedinglobalcampaigns,and
havehad a considerablepoliticalmobilisation impact.Thiswas re
flected,forinstance,inthetwodeclarationsonsupportingtheMDGs
initiatedbyUK PremierGordon Brown inJuly 2007,whichwere
signedby22headsofstateandgovernment,includingFederalChan
cellorAngelaMerkel,aswellasby21corporateleaders(Commission
oftheEuropeanCommunities2008:13).MarkingtheMDGmidpoint,
theynoted that theworldwasnoton track inrealising thegoals,
concludingthat:
We
need
urgent
action
to
meet
this
development
emergency
if
the
world
is
togetbackontrack.1
AttheMDGhalf
time,anemergency
summitistobeheld
onthe25thSeptember
2008,attendedby
governments,busi
nessandcivilsociety.
To thisend, theycalled forasummitofgovernments,businessand
civil society. Taking the initiative, UN SecretaryGeneral Ban Ki
moonhasinvitedthepartiesconcernedtoaHighlevelEventonthe
MDGsinNewYorkon25September2008.There,however,thepar
ticipants of thismeeting are not only going tobe confrontedwith
deficits in the implementation of these goals. The debate over the
MDGs is characterisedby fundamental controversies about the at
tainabilityofthegoals,theirmethodology,thestrategiesoftheirim
plementationand
their
status
within
aholistic
development
ap
proach.
These debates havebecome all themore urgent on account of the
revisedpovertystatisticsprovidedbytheWorldBank.Newcalcula
tionsrate thenumberofpeople living inextremepovertyat1.4bil
lion,whichismorethan400millionabovewhathaspreviouslybeen
1 Cf.http://www.dfid.gov.uk/mdg/declarationheads07.asp(viewedon9Septem
ber2008)
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assumed (World Bank 2008b).With this new calculation, themid
point reviewbecomesmore sobering, and the fragility of the data
baseappearsparticularlyclearly.Inanutshell,theMDGprojecthas
runintocrisis.Againstthisbackground,boththeagendaforthesec
ond half on theway to the 2015 goals and all post2015 strategies
have to take thepolitical, conceptual andmethodical challenges in
realisingtheMDGsintoaccount.
2 MDGs:Justthetipoftheicebergofinternationaldevelopmentgoals
Thesetofgoals,tar
gets
and
indicators
hasbeenextended
severaltimessincethe
MillenniumDeclara
tion.
TheabbreviationMDGstandsforanoriginalsetofeightgoals,18
targetsand
48
indicators.
In
anegotiating
process
among
the
UN,
IMF,WorldBank andOECD in 2000, theyweredistilled from the
resolutionsofworldconferencesofthe1990sasthesmallestcommon
denominator.
TheMDGcataloguehasbeenextendedseveraltimessince2000.Al
ready in itsfirstversion,whichtheUNSecretaryGeneralpublished
inhisRoadMapontheimplementationoftheMillenniumDeclaration
in2001(UNSecretaryGeneral2001),thecataloguepointsbeyondthe
originalsetofsevendevelopmentgoals,whichhadbeendefinedby
theUN, IMF,OECDandWorldBankascommonpriorities in2000
(IMF/OECD/WorldBank/UN2000). In theRoadMap,aneighthgoal
titled Global Development Partnershipwas added, above all in
responsetotheG77scriticismoftheonesidedsettingofthesepri
orities.Itreferstotheresponsibilitiesofthe industrialisedcountries,
inparticular in theareasof trade, financingdevelopment,debtcan
cellationandtechnologytransfer.Butunlikethegoalsforthedevel
oping countries,MDG 8 contains no quantitative timebound com
mitmentsbutmeregeneraldeclarationsofintent.
Following theJohannesburgSummitonsustainabledevelopment in
2002, the EnvironmentMDG (MDG 7)was supplementedby the
target to lowerby half theproportion of peoplewith no access to
sanitation.AsaresultoftheWorldSummit2005therangeoftopics
addressedby theMDGswas once again substantially extended in
2007,withthetargetofproductivefullemploymentanddecentwork
forall,thetargetofgeneralaccesstoreproductivehealthby2015,the
targetofensuringgeneralaccesstoHIV/AIDStreatmentandthetar
get of significantly reducing the current rate ofbiologicaldiversity
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lossby2010beingadded.2TheMDGcataloguesincevalidthuscom
priseseightGoals,21Targetsand60Indicators.Inspiteoftheexten
sions,theMDGsonlyformthetipoftheicebergofinternationalde
velopmentgoals,constitutingasitweretheMinimumDevelopment
Goals.
TheMDGsareonlya
smallpartoftheIn
ternationallyAgreed
DevelopmentGoals.
Therefore,mostof theUNofficialdocumentsdonot solely refer to
theMDGsbut to the InternationallyAgreedDevelopmentGoals,
includingtheMDGs.Thiswording,whichhasbeenurgedbothby
theG77andbygovernmentsoftheNorth,isaimedatpointingtothe
fact thatat theworldconferencesover the last twodecadesandon
other international occasions, severaldevelopmentgoalshavebeen
formulated that reachbeyond theMDGs and to the realisation of
whichthegovernmentshaveequallycommittedthemselves.Whereas
here,the
G
77
is
above
all
focusing
on
those
goals
addressed
to
the
richcountries, thegovernmentsof theNorthareaboveallstressing
commitmentsinthefieldofdemocracy,humanrightsandgoodgov
ernance,whichhavesofarnotbeenincludedintheMDGcatalogue.3
3 MostcountriesareofftrackInmostcountries
mostoftheMDGs
willnotbeachieved
by2015ifcurrenttrendscontinue.
In theiranalysisofprogressmadeso far inrealising theMDGs, the
UN,WorldBankandNGOsareinrelativeagreement:Theirreports,
especiallytheWorldBanksGlobalMonitoringReport,showthat in
mostofthecountriesmostoftheMDGswillnotbeachievedby2015
ifcurrenttrendscontinue.4
Thereclearlyarepositivedevelopmentsatgloballevel,suchasinthe
reductionoftheabsolutenumberofpeoplelivinginextremepoverty,
orintheincreaseintheworldwidepercentageofpeoplewithaccess
to clean drinkingwater.However, progress in eradicating poverty
hasbeendueverystrongly to theoverachievers inEastandSouth
Asia(Bourguignonetal.2008:7).Moreover,eveninthosecountries
2 Cf.UNDoc.E/CN.3/2008/29of12December2007.
3 InitsfirstreportinSeptember2008,theUNsMDGGapTaskForcecompiledthe
widerangeofcommitmentsexistinginthethematicareaofMDG8(creatinga
worldwidedevelopmentpartnership)aloneinaMatrixofGlobalCommit
mentscf.UN(2008a)andhttp://www.un.org/esa/policy/mdggap/.
4 Cf.e.g.WorldBank(2008a),CommissionoftheEuropeanCommunities(2008),
Bourguignonetal.(2008),Martens(2007)andtheUNsinteractivewebsite
http://www.mdgmonitor.org(viewedonthe9thSeptember2008),whichpro
videscomprehensiveinformationonrealisingtheMDGsin130countriesandre
gions.
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thathavemadeprogressatnational level, thishasnotbeen shared
equallywithin the countries.According toWorldBank surveys, in
those countries that have made particular progress in economic
growth, incomedisparitieshavealso increased,withChinaheading
the list.Measuredwith theGiniCoefficient, thegulfbetweenpoor
andrichhasshownasteadyincreasein42outof59countries(World
Bank2008a:35).
Successstorieshave
becomepossiblebe
causegovernments
haveweakenedpre
vious,moreambitious
goals.
IthasalsobecomepossibletospeakofprogressregardingtheMDGs
because thegovernmentshaveweakenedprevious,moreambitious
goals and extended the implementation periods. For example, the
UNsdecision to take 1990 as thebaseyear inmeasuringprogress
insteadof2000hasresultedinthegoalofhalvingtheshareofpeople
livingonlessthanonedollaradayalreadybeingreachedintheEast
AsiaPacific
Region
in
2000
owing
to
Chinas
economic
growth.
In
otherwords,thegovernmentsagreedonagoalin2000thattheyhad
alreadyachievedinthatveryyear.
Thereareparticularlygravedeficitsinthereductionofchildmortal
ity(MDG4)andmaternalmortality(MDG5)andregardingthegoal
of halving the proportion of people suffering from hunger (UN
2008b).Owing to theworldwide rapid increase inprices of staple
food,thereisadangerofthenumberofpeoplesufferingfromhunger
in thedeveloping countriesgrowing rather thandropping.Already
sincethemidnineties,theirnumberhadrisenfromjustunder800to
830million (20022004) (FAO 2007:130). Owing to the global foodcrisis,theUNHighLevelTaskForceontheGlobalFoodCrisis(2008:
9) reckonswitha further increaseofmore than100millionpeople.
ThoseinthecrisisregionsofAfricaareparticularlyhardaffected.
Thereappearstobe
noconnectionamong
successscoredindif
ferentMDGs.
Oneveryastonishingresultatmidpointishowlittleprogressamong
the variousMDGs is connected. Frequently, there is no significant
correlationbetweenthechangesregardingdifferentgoals,sothatthe
causes obviouslyneed tobe sought inverydifferentvariables and
policies.For instance, there isvirtuallyno linkbetweenMDG1 (re
ducingpoverty)andnonpovertygoals suchas childmortalityand
theprimaryschoolcompletionrate.Correlationsare lowamongthe
nonincomegoals,too(Bourguignonetal.2008:21).
Allinall,thecurrentpaceofprogressisfarfromsufficienttoachieve
theMDGs inallcountriesby2015.Apapercompiledbyrenowned
Europeanresearch institutions for theUKsDepartment for Interna
tionalDevelopment (DFID) and theDirectorateGeneral forDevel
opment of the European Commission (DGDEV) soberly states:
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MostcountriesinallregionsareofftrackonmostMDGs(ordatais
missingtoassessprogress),eventhosecountrieswhichhaveexperi
enced thebestgrowthperformances. (Bourguignonetal.2008:8)5
ThisstatementisalsobackedupbythedevelopmentsoftheGender
EquityIndex (GEI)and theBasicCapabilitiesIndex(BCI)published
bythecivilsocietynetworkSocialWatchonceayear.6Theseindexes
illustrate that anumber of countries, especially in SubSaharanAf
rica, are evenmoving away from the targets.Poverty, hunger and
childmortality tend to increase there rather than todecrease, even
thoughsomecountrieshaveclearlyscoredsuccesses,too.
4 Fragilestatehoodasanobstacletodevelopment
Thepoorfunctional
ityofstatestructures
hasaparticularly
graveimpactonsocial
development.
ThatSubSaharanAfricashouldbelaggingbehindsomuchisclosely
related to the fact thataparticularlyhigh shareof fragile statesare
locatedhereand that theseare showingdeficitsofa specialnature
regardingtheimplementationoftheMDGs.Dependingonthedefini
tionandthedatabase,40to60statesworldwidearecharacterisedby
anerosionofthemonopolyofforce,oftheruleoflawandalimited
effectivenessofstateinstitutions.Thispushesanyachievementofthe
MDGs into thedistant future.DFID (2005)assesses thesocialsitua
tionin
fragile
states
as
grave
in
comparison
to
other
poor
countries:
Percapitaincomeisjusthalfashighasinthereferencegroup.Child
mortality is twiceandmaternalmortalityeven three timesashigh.
Aroundathirdofthepopulationareundernourished;largesections
ofthepopulationaretroubledbymalaria.
AstocktakingbytheWorldBanksGlobalMonitoringReport(2007)
cameupwith similarlydramatic findings7. It states that8%of the
5 ThebackgroundpapertitledMillenniumDevelopmentGoalsatMidpoint:
Wheredowestand?waswrittenfortheEuropeanReportonDevelopment,
whichiscurrentlybeingcompiled.AtotaloftenauthorsfromEuropeanresearchinstitutesaswellasCornellUniversity,USA,wereinvolved.
6 Cf.http://www.socialwatch.org(viewedon9September2008).
7 BothDFIDandtheGlobalMonitoringReportbasetheiridentificationoffragile
statesontheWorldBankCountryPolicyandInstitutionalAssessmentrating
(CPIA),whichhasbeencriticisedfor,amongotheraspects,itsincomprehensible
classificationsandalackoftransparency.Forinstance,ForeignPolicy/TheFund
forPeace(2007)orRice/Patrick(2008)haverecentlyclassifiedfragilestatesina
differentmanner.However,thebasictendency,thatoffragilestatesperforming
poorlyintermsoftheMDGs,canprobablybeconfirmedbyandlargeindepend
entlyofthesourceofdata.
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populationindevelopingcountriesliveinfragilestates,while,simul
taneously, 16% of theundernourished children live there.What is
evenmoreworryingisthat30%ofthechildrenwhodidnotsurvive
theageof5yearswerefromthisgroupofcountries(Bourguignonet
al. 2008 8).This shows that it isnotonly structural socioeconomic
developmentproblems thatareendangering theachievementof the
MDGsbut that the functionality of state structures is of at least as
much central importance. Neoliberallymotivated scaling down of
statestructuresinthe1980saswellastheerosionofstateinstitutions
owingtoviolentconflicthave leftcrisisregionsherewithadifficult
legacytheovercomingofwhichneedstobetakenintoaccountmore
thaninthepastintermsofforwardlookingstrategiesfortheMDGs.
5 Methodologicalproblemscontinuetoexist
Thelackofastatisti
calbaseofeconomic
andsocialdatacom
plicatesanyassess
mentoftheMDG
process.
ThemidpointreviewofMDGimplementationiscomplicatedbythe
lackofaccuratestatistics.Inseveralcountries,neitherreliabledataon
thenumberofpeoplesufferingfromhungernoronmaternalmortal
ity,thespreadofHIVorthenumberofpeopledyingofmalariaeach
yearareavailable.Moreover,problemsalreadyexist regardingcon
sistency and the comparability of data over space and timewithin
individualindicators.
This
is
reflected,
for
example,
in
measuring
the
goalofhalvingtheproportionofthepopulationsufferingfromhun
ger,which,dependingontheuseofrelevantindicators(malnutrition
indicatorof theFAO,underweightchildren)mayvaryconsiderably
(Bourguignonetal.2008:1112).In78outof149developingcountries
andemergingeconomies,andthus inmorethan50percentofthese
countries, there arenot even any reliable statistics on thedevelop
ment of incomepoverty (WorldBank 2008a: 22).Progress and set
backs inachieving theMDGscannotbeaccuratelydeterminedwith
such aweak database.Atbest, rough estimates are possible. The
WorldBank
and
UN
statistics,
on
which
many
policy
recommenda
tionsanddevelopmentstrategiesarefounded,reflectalevelofaccu
racylackinganyscientificbasis.
Governmentsand internationalorganisationsarewellawareof this
deficit. For some years, they havebeen attempting to improve the
capacities to establish economic and social data in the developing
countries.In2004,theyadoptedtheMarrakechActionPlanforStatistics
(MAPS)tothisend,andinthefollowingyears,NationalStrategiesfor
theDevelopmentofStatisticswerecreatedinmorethan100countries
apositivesideeffectoftheMDGprocess.
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TheWorldBanks
povertymeasurehas
proventoolowin
termsofitsleveland
itsreference
magni
tudeinpurchasing
powerparities.
Measuring poverty itself represents a farweightiermethodological
problem.While the indicatorofextremepoverty (percapita income
oflessthanoneUSdollaraday)isexcellentlysuitedtocommunicate,
ithasbeenrandomlysetintermsofitslevel,andevenasathreshold
valueof extremepoverty, ithasproven tobe far too low forwide
regions of theworld. This is now also held tobe the caseby the
WorldBank,which iswhy its revisedpoverty estimatesofAugust
2008 put themain poverty line at 1.25US dollars (Chen/Ravallion
2008).The latestpovertyestimatesof theAsianDevelopmentBank
for16Asiancountriesarebasedonanaveragepovertylineof1.35US
dollars(in2005purchasingpowerparities)(AsianDevelopmentBank
2008).
AdditionalcriticismoftheWorldBanksmeasureofpovertyhasbeen
formulatedby
Sanjay
G.
Reddy
and
Thomas
W.
Pogge
of
New
Yorks
ColumbiaUniversity.Oneof theaspects they criticise is theWorld
Bankspracticeofexpressingthereferencemagnitudeinpurchasing
powerparities(PPP).This isaimedatenablingcomparabilityofna
tional data.With a PPP dollar, one can (theoretically) acquire the
sameamountofgoodsandservicesineverycountrythroughoutthe
world.However,thedefinitionofpurchasingpowerparitiesisbased
on international baskets of goods and services that have little in
commonwithwhat the poor consume. For the services taken into
account in thebaskets,which are often very cheap in developing
countries(e.g.
domestic
help),
are
in
little
demand
among
the
poor.
In
their consumption, they concentrate on staple foods, which are
tradedworldwide(rice,grain,etc.)andwhosepricesvarycompara
tively littlebetweenrichandpoorcountries.PoggeandReddycon
cludefromthisthatthenumberofpoorpeopleinlowincomecoun
triesisbeingunderestimatedbytheWorldBank(Pogge2007:10).
6 ReportsofsuccesssofarneedcorrectingTheraisingofthe
povertylineandthe
revisionofthepur
chasingpowerpari
tiesnecessitatesa
reassessmentofMDG
1.
Given the methodological insufficiency of purchasing power esti
matessofar,whichwerebasedonsurveysin1993,theWorldBank,
UNand severalother internationalorganisationsaswellas146na
tional statisticsauthoritieshaveembarkedona completelynewas
sessmentofpurchasingpowerstatisticsinamajorinternationalpro
ject, the InternationalComparisonProgram (WorldBank 2008b).8The
result, published inDecember 2007, is referred tobyWorld Bank
economistBrankoMilanovic(2008)asarevolutionofhistoricpro
8 Alsoseehttp://go.worldbank.org/VMCB80AB40(viewedon9September2008).
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portions.With the newmethod, the national income ofChina and
India,expressed inPPP,sankovernightby40percent.Compared
to previous estimates, Chinas share of the global gross domestic
productdropped from14 to10%,and thatof India from6 to4%
(WorldBank2008b:10).ForChina,owing tostatisticaladjustments,
theshareofabsolutepoorfortheperiodfrom1980to2004hasgrown
by20percentagepointscompared topreviouscalculations,and the
resultsoughttobesimilarforIndiaandBangladesh(Bourguignonet
al.2008:9).
Thenumberofpeople
livinginextreme
povertyexceedsesti
matessofarby400
million.
Theraisingofthepovertylineandtherevisionofpurchasingpower
paritiesbeardramaticconsequencesfortheassessmentofprogressin
achievingMDG1.Accordingtothemostuptodateestimatessofar,
thoseof2004,thenumberofpeoplelivinginextremepoverty(i.e.on
lessthan
one
PPP
dollar
aday)
had
dropped
to
986
million.
But
ac
cordingtotheWorldBanksrevisedestimates,theyareat1.4billion
people.9 World Bank economists Chen and Ravallion (2008) pub
lished thenew figures for the first time inAugust2008, inapaper
headedTheDevelopingWorldisPoorerThanWeThought,ButNoLess
SuccessfulintheFightagainstPoverty.Theyillustratedthesecondhalf
of the titlewith impressive figures: thenumber ofpeople living in
extremepovertyhaddroppedby500million,andtheirshareof the
worldpopulationhadevenbeenhalved.However,thisnewsofsuc
cesswasonlypossible since theauthorschose to take1981andnot
2000or
1990as
the
base
year.
Evenwith the new poverty assessments, the situation inAfrica is
particularlygrave.There, thenumberofpeople inextremepoverty
almostdoubledoverthelast25years(from202millionin1981to384
million in 2005).At 50.4percent, their shareof thepopulationwas
almostjustashighin2005asin1981(50.8percent).Andfortheother
regionsof theSouth,progresshasbeen significantly smaller too, if
themorerealisticpovertylineof2USdollarsadayistakenasabase.
Thenumberofpeoplehavingtolivebelowthisthresholdrosefrom
2.5to2.6billionbetween1981and2005.10
9 Numberofpeoplelivingonlessthan1.25USdollars(inpurchasingpowerpari
tiesof2005).
10 Thenumberhadrisento2.9billionby1999andhassincedropped.
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7 DonorcommitmentonthewaneDevelopmentassis
tance
has
dropped
waybelowthemini
mumrequiredto
achievetheMDGs.
Thegovernments arenotonlyofftrackwhen it comes to reducing
incomepoverty
and
numerous
other
goals
and
targets,
but
also
in
termsof theGlobalPartnershippostulated inMDG8.Thereportof
theMDGGapTaskForce(UN2008a)pointstoflaggingcommitment
on thepartof thewesterndonorcountries:Between1997and2005,
officialdevelopmentassistance (ODA)providedby the22members
of theOECDDevelopmentAssistance Committee (DAC)was still
risingsignificantly.In2005,at107billionUS$, itreached itshighest
level so far.However, thiswasaboveallaresultof takingcompre
hensive debt cancellations into account. But in the following two
years,developmentassistancedroppedbyaround13% (UN2008a:
viiviii).
The
decline
was
particularly
dramatic
with
Japan
and
the
UK
in2007.TheirODAwasreducedby30and29%respectivelywithina
singleyear.WiththeUSA,thereductionwas10%,andwiththeEU6
%11.TheMDGGapTaskForceestimatesthatthedonorcountrieswill
havetoincreasetheirdevelopmentassistanceby18billionUSdollars
by2010inordertoachievetheagreedgoals.
Continuedriskof
overindebtednessin
manycountries.
Gradualprogresshasbeenmadeinreducingthedebtburdenofthe
Highly IndebtedPoorDevelopingCountries (HIPC).Thanks tobi
andmultilateraldebtcancellation,the levelofdebtdroppedconsid
erablyfor33ofthe41HIPC.Nevertheless,theinitiativessofarhave
notbroughtaboutanylastingsolutiontothedebtproblemsofmanyof these countries. According to the IMF and the World Bank
(IDA/IMF2007:10),atleast12ofthemarealreadyrunningtheriskof
becomingoverindebtedagain.Atthesametime,in52countries,lar
geramountsofmoneyarestillflowingintodebtservicingthan into
healthcareexpenditure.12
11 OECDpressreleaseof4April2008.
12 RichardBoudreaux,Povertyreductionaidlags,studyfinds,in:LosAngeles
Timesof5September2008,http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la
fgpoverty52008sep05,0,1143073.story(viewedon9September2008).
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8 Recommendationsupto2015andbeyond
Inspiteofincreased
publicawarenessand
politicalsupport,
therearemassive
deficitsinMDGim
plementationboth
inNorthandSouth.
Theprimeobjectof theMDGs is todrawpublicandpoliticalatten
tion to themost severeproblemsofpovertyand socialdeprivation
andtoraisethepressureofexpectationsongovernments.TheMDGs
haveperformedthisroleoverthepasteightyears.However,there
sultssofarshowthatthegovernmentshavenotrespondedwiththe
necessarypoliticalmeasures. So far, the governments of theNorth
haveneitherbeen ready tomakesubstantialconcessions in interna
tional tradepolicy,norhave theyprovided their shareofnecessary
additionalresourcestoachievetheMDGsintheshapeoffreshmoney.
Alltoooften,thegovernmentsofmanydevelopingcountrieshaveso
far failed toconsistentlyorientate theirpolicies towardseradicating
poverty, overcoming income and wealth disparities in their own
countriesandmobilisingdomesticresources.Deficitsalsocontinueto
exist in thegovernance sector in several countries.The situation is
particularlygriminfragilestatesinwhichkeyfunctionsintheareas
ofsecurity,welfareandparticipationarehardlybeingfulfilled.
GordonBrownscallforanMDGemergencysummitin2008wasan
expressionof theadmittance thatgovernmentshaveso far failed to
meettheirresponsibilityfortheachievementoftheMDG.However,
focusingdevelopmentstrategiesoneradicatingpovertyalsobearsthedangerofpoliticsmerelyfiddlingaroundwiththesymptoms,with
outactuallyreachingtherootcausesoftheevil.Ifpovertyisaboveall
understoodasincomepoverty,theproposalsforsolvingtheproblem
of reducingpovertywillbe reduced to themonetary level. In con
trast,structuralissuessuchastheunequaldistributionofassets,land
andpoliticalpowerinthecountriesaffectedaswellastheframework
conditions of theworld economy and the impacts of globalised fi
nanceandcommoditymarketshavesofarbeengivenlittleattention
in theprogrammes on the implementation of theMDGs.This also
appliestoenvironmentalaspects,inparticulartotheconsequencesofclimate change.However,an incompleteproblemdiagnosis can re
sult in thewrongpolicy recipes andmay tend tobeanobstacle to
arrivingatanylastingsolutionoftheproblems.
InthesecondhalfoftheMDGprocessupto2015,thegovernments
should thereforeboth dealwith the deficits in the implementation
andmethodologyoftheMillenniumGoalsandfundamentallyreview
thepolicy recipes for their achievement.This encompasses the fol
lowingaspects:
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a)BindingtargetsinthecontextoftheGlobal
DevelopmentPartnership
Clearbinding
and
measurablecommit
mentsonthepartof
theindustrialised
countrieshavetobe
definedandimple
mented.
TheGerman
Federal
Government,
but
also
many
governments
of
the
South,arerightinpointingto,albeitfordifferentreasons,theMDGs
merelybeingpartofafarmorecomprehensivecatalogueofpolitical
commitmentsthatthegovernmentsenteredwiththedecisionsofthe
world conferences over the past two decades and theMillennium
Declaration of 2000. The practice of theUnitedNations to always
mention theMDGs in onebreathwith the InternationallyAgreed
DevelopmentGoals (IADGs) and to regard them as an element of
thesegoalsoughttoberetained.Thisappliesinparticulartothefor
mulationofnationaldevelopmentstrategies(MDGStrategies)and
thereview
of
the
implementation
of
the
goals
and
targets,
among
othersattheAnnualMinisterialReviewoftheUNEconomicandSocial
Council(ECOSOC).13
The governments ought to overcome the imbalance in the level of
commitment of theMDGs for industrialised and developing coun
tries.Thismeansdefiningthecontributionofindustrialisedcountries
in the shapeofclear,quantitative, timeboundand therefore check
ablecommitments.For thispurpose,MDG7and8ought tobeex
tended andput into concrete terms.Among other aspects, this ap
plies to commitments to reduceCO2 emissions in the industrialised
countries, to increaseODA transfersand toeliminate tradebarriers
andexportsubsidies.WithaviewtoMDG8,thereportoftheUNs
MDGGapTaskForce(2008a)providesausefulreferencedocument
inthisrespect.
With itsbindingODA timetable, theEU took an important step in
thisdirectionin2005.Buttoproveitsreadinesstorealisethistimeta
ble,allEUgovernmentsneedtotranslatethisplan intocorrespond
ingnationaltimetables.
Innovativefinancing
instrumentsandDonorIndexlongover
due.
The introductionof innovative financing instrumentsatglobal level
isoverdue for the financingofadditionalglobal tasks,especially inthe area of climate change and financemarket stability.Here, the
proposalsforinternationallycoordinatedtaxes,aboveallaCurrency
orFinancialTransactionTaxandaCO2 tax,areofparticular impor
tance.
13 WiththeMatrixofGlobalCommitmentscompiledbytheMDGGapTaskForce,
theUnitedNationshasprovidedausefulbasistothisend,cf.
http://www.un.org/esa/policy/mdggap/(viewedon9September2008).
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However,bindingcommitmentson thepartof theNorth regarding
thequantityofODAarefarfromsufficient.InthecontextoftheParis
DeclarationandtheAccraAgendaforActionofSeptember2008,the
governmentshavethereforeenteredcommitmentstoraisethequality
ofdevelopmentcooperation,too.But,incentralareassuchasunty
ingaid,theabolitionofpolicyconditionalitiesandthestrengthening
ofdemocraticownership,commitmentshavesofarremainedvague.
Inorder to systematicallymeasurehow theNorth fulfills itsdevel
opmentcommitments,acatalogueofcriteriaoraDonorIndicator(in
addition to the ODA/BNE Indicator) could be worthwhile instru
ments.A longertermoptioncouldbe thedevelopmentofaformof
Global Solidarity Index,which illustrates in amanner appealing to
thepublichowdevelopmentfriendlyacountryspoliciesaretowards
poorercountries
and
how
much
solidarity
itcan
muster
in
this
re
spect.14
b)LinkingtheMDGdebatewithahumanrightsbased
developmentapproach
Criteriabasedon
humanrightsre
quiredforanevalua
tionofMDG8.
The HighlevelTask Force on the Implementation of theRight to
Development (HLTF 2008),which operatesunder the umbrella of
theUNHumanRightsCouncil,makesaninterestingcontributionto
reviewingtheGlobalDevelopmentPartnership.AtitssessioninDe
cember2004,ititselfsetthegoalofintegratingthestatementsmade
in theMillenniumDevelopmentgoals relating toeconomic, finance
anddevelopmentpolicyinthehumanrightsactivitiesoftheUnited
Nations and linking developmentmore strongly to human rights
(Schorlemer 2006: 102).Moreover, in 2005, itwas commissioned to
develop criteria for the regularevaluationofMDG8 regarding the
righttodevelopmentexplainedinmoredetailina1986declaration.
Correspondingly,theHighlevelTaskForceisdevelopingandassess
ingsocalledcriteriaforperiodicevaluationofglobalpartnershipsfroma
rightto
development
perspective
(HLTF
2008:
Annex
II,
26
28).
Accord
ingly,globalpartnerships are tobedesigned institutionally to con
tribute to the achievement of human rights, consider particularly
vulnerablegroupsofthepopulationandpromotegoodgovernance,
14 TheWashingtonCenterforGlobalDevelopment2003hascreatedamodelfora
similarindexwithitsCommitmenttoDevelopmentIndex(CDI).Cf.Centerfor
GlobalDevelopment(2007)und
http://www.cgdev.org/section/initiatives/_active/cdi/(viewedon9September
2008).
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democracy, rule of law and effective anticorruptionmeasures. In
orderforthistowork,freedomofinformation,genderequityaswell
asconsultationandparticipationproceduresneedtobeensuredand
correspondinghumanandfinancialresourceshavetobeavailable.
Righttohealthofkey
importance.Special significance is currentlybeing attributedwithinMDG 8 to
target17,which isaimedatenablingaccesstoessentialdrugsataf
fordable prices in cooperation with pharmaceutical corporations.
Here,novelpublicprivatepartnershipsaregainingattention,suchas
theGlobal Fund to FightAIDS, Tuberculosis andMalaria and the
GlobalAllianceforVaccinesandImmunization(HLTF2008:Figs.46
47,7476).Suchpartnershipsofferopportunitiesprovided thatnew
resourcesaremobilisedand initiativescanbesupplementedbyUN
agencies and national governments (generally see Beisheim et al.
2008).At
the
same
time,
the
risks
and
limitations
of
such
multi
stakeholder partnerships are obvious. For they have a tendency to
promotethefragmentationofglobalgovernanceandtrendstowards
elitemodels of global governance, and they give national govern
mentstheopportunitytobypassresponsibilityandaccountabilityfor
coreareasofpublicwelfare.Lastbutnotleasttheyencourageaselec
tiveorientationofgovernanceoncommerciallyviablehealthprojects
(Martens2007a).Atthesametime,thecomprehensiveresponsibility
ofawiderangeofactorsisirrefutablyontheagenda.Inthesenseofa
humanrightsapproachindevelopmentcooperation(Hamm2003),it
oughtto
be
measured
against
the
degree
to
which
progress
can
been
made in implementing the right to health 15.The relevance of this
aspectwasalreadyemphasisedby thecorrespondingTaskForceof
theUNMillenniumProjectin2005:
The lackofaccess to lifesavingandhealthsupportingmedicinesforanes
timated 2billionpoorpeople stands asadirect contradiction to the funda
mentalprincipleofhealthasahumanright.(Leachetal.2005:1)
c)Functioninggovernanceandruleoflawas
preconditionsforMDGprogress
TheachievementoftheMDGscruciallydependsonthegovernability
andthechangesinpoliticalregimesintheSouth.Whilethisaspectis
15 SeealsoherethereportoftheSpecialRapporteurontherightofeveryonetothe
enjoymentofthehighestattainablestandardofphysicalandmentalhealth,
whichhasappearedtitledHumanRightsGuidelinesforPharmaceuticalCom
paniesinRelationtoAccesstoMedicines,
http://www2.essex.ac.uk/human_rights_centre/rth.shtm(viewedon9September
2008).
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clearly addressed under the headword GoodGovernance in the
MillenniumDeclaration, it is thennotadopted in theMDGs.How
ever,aminimumlevelofruleoflawisacentralpreconditionforthe
sustainableachievementof theMDGs,just likeanorderly transfor
mationofauthoritarian regimes.Moreover, there is the insight that
fragilestatesandcountriesinviolentconflictareconsiderablyworse
in implementingtheMDGscomparedtoreferencegroupsatacom
parablelevelofdevelopment.Theseaspectscannolongerbeignored
fordiplomaticreasonsbuthavetobeacentralaspectoftheMDG
Agenda.16
d)Supportingnationaldevelopmentstrategiesand
countriesowninstrumentstomeasurepoverty
Countryspecificde
velopmentstrategy
needsformulating.
SomeoftheMDG indicators, inparticular thepoverty linesof1US
dollaroreven1.25USdollarsaday,areoflittlerelevanceforanum
berofcountriesoftheSouth,suchasChileorUruguay.Butthisdoes
notmean that therearenoseriouspovertyproblems in thesecoun
tries.Aworldwideuniformmeasureofpovertywouldnot,however,
dojusticetothesecountries.Forthisreason,selfdeterminednational
developmentgoalsand the corresponding strategiesadapted to the
respectivelevelofdevelopmentofthesecountriesoughttobegiven
precedence.
Most countries have adopted national and sometimes even sub
national poverty lineswhich, as a rule, lie above the 1 dollar/day
mark. They include Bangladesh, Bolivia, Guatemala, Malawi and
Vietnam.Inthecontextofitsnationaldevelopmentstrategy,Vietnam
hasformulated12developmentgoalswhicharebasedontheMDGs
butgobeyondthem.ThesurveyofEuropeandevelopmentinstitutes
on Millennium Development Goals atMidpoint also presents a
scepticalviewof theuniversaluseofabsolutepovertymeasures,
andasanalternative,itproposestomonitorMDG1usingnational
poverty lines that are derived at using a consistent methodology
(suchasthecostofbasicneedsmethodthatisnowmostpopular in
developingcountries)(Bourguignonetal.2008:10).
Capacitiestoestablish
andprocessdataneed
strengthening.
Thebasisofanyeffectivedevelopmentstrategyneedstobesufficient
informationona countrys socialandeconomic situation.Thispre
supposes corresponding capacities to establish and process data.
16 Cf.alsoOECD/DAC2004,WorldBankIndependentEvaluationGroup2006and
BMZ2007.
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Onlyifagovernmentdisposesofcomprehensiveinformationonthe
povertysituationinitscountry,ifitknowswherechildandmaternal
mortalityisgreatest,andifitcanaccuratelydeterminethespreadof
HIVandAIDSitwillalsobeinapositiontotakethenecessarypoliti
calstepsandcalculatetheirfinancialrequirements.Asyet,inthema
jorityofthedevelopingcountries,therearestillconsiderableinforma
tiongapsinthisarea.Thisiswhydevelopmentcooperationoughtto
increasingly support the formulating and implementingofnational
actionplansondevelopingstatistics.
e)Reorientingthefocusfromdevelopmentgoalsto
developmentstrategies
Technocraticproblemsolutionstrategies
havereachedacul
desac.
WhereastherearehardlyanyfundamentalcontroversiesonthebasicgoalsandtargetssetintheMDGs,thewaysofachievingthesegoals
arebynomeansundisputed.Assuch,theMDGsdonotrepresenta
development strategy, as UN SecretaryGeneral Ban Kimoon also
noted in2007 (UNSecretaryGeneral2007: Item40).Superficialhar
monyregardingthegoalssometimesevencoversuptheseriouscon
troversies about the strategieswithwhich theMDGs ought tobe
achieved.Forexample, it ishighlycontroversialwhetherthegoalof
halving theproportion of those suffering from hunger ought tobe
achievedbyanewgreenrevolutioninAfricaandtheindustrialisa
tionofagriculture,astheUNMillenniumProjectsuggests.Insteadoftechnocraticproblemsolutionstrategies,thecultural,socialandgeo
graphicalpeculiaritiesofeachcountryought tobegivenmorecon
siderationwhen formulating itsdevelopment strategy.This iswhat
the agricultural research project InternationalAssessment ofAgricul
turalKnowledge,ScienceandTechnologyforDevelopment(IAASTD)also
demandsregardingcopingwith theglobal foodsecuritycrisis in its
finalreportinApril2008.17
All in all, asTheoRauch (2007: 241242) rightly argues, a political
multilevelapproachisrequiredwhichsteerstheeconomicglobalisa
tionprocesswith tools includingsocialstandardsandselectivepro
tectionoptions,whichboostscompetitivenessatregionallevel,which
strengthentheruleof lawatthenational leveland increasestheac
cessofthepoortopublicservices,andwhichsupportstherepresen
tationoftheinterestsofthepooratthelocallevel.
17 Cf.herehttp://www.agassessment.org(viewedon9September2008).
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Structuralcausesof
povertyneedtobe
highlighted.
Thedevelopmentdiscourseshouldthereforerecollectcomprehensive
strategiesofsustainablehumandevelopmentandembed theMDGs
asoneelementinthesestrategiesThisalsomeansthatthestructural
causesofpoverty,whichhavesofarreceivedinsufficientattentionin
theMDG context, have tobe givenmore considerationwithin the
MDGdiscourse.Thisappliesinparticulartothegrowingincomeand
wealthdisparitieswithin andbetween countries, theirvulnerability
visvis crises on the international financemarkets, and the socio
economic consequences of climate change in the countries of the
South.
9 LiteratureAsianDevelopment Bank (2008): Key Indicators forAsia and the Pacific
2008.Manila.
Beisheim, Marianne/Andrea Liese/Cornelia Ulbert (2008): Transnationale
ffentlichprivatePartnerschaften.Bestimmungsfaktoren frdieEffek
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MichaelZrn(Eds.),GovernanceineinersichwandelndenWelt,PVS
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Editor:
Institut fr Entwilung und Frieden, INEF
Geibelstrae 41 D - 47057 Duisburg
Phone +49 (203) 379 4420 Fax +49 (203) 379 4425
E-Mail: [email protected]
Homepage: hp://www.inef.uni-due.de
Layout design: Sasa Werthes, Jeanee Sade
C f t J Hi l Ulf T li d J S d
Jens Martens, Economist, Director of Global Policy Forum Europe and mem-
ber of the Coordinating Commiee of Social Wat, an international network
of more than 400 NGOs working on social development.
Contact: [email protected]
Tobias Debiel, Dr., Professor of International Relations and De-
velopment Policy on the Institute for Political Science and Direc-
tor of the Institute for Development and Peace (INEF), University of
Duisburg-Essen.
Contact: [email protected]
FACULTY
OF SOCIAL SCIENCES
The MDG Project in Crisis
Midpoint Review and Prospects for the Future
A sobering interim review is emerging at the MDGs midpoint. In order to get the world ba on tra in aieving
the Millennium Development Goals, at the invitation of UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, a high-level event ofgovernments, business and civil society is to be held in New York on 25th September 2008. This policy brief gives a
concise overview of the progress and decits in implementing the MDGs and highlights some methodological pro-
blems in the MDG concept itself. Seing out from this basis, it recommends necessary course corrections in order
to successfully continue the MDG project aer all. Its proposals contain clear and binding commitments on the part
of the industrialised countries, linking the MDGs with the human rights-based approa, promoting functioning
governance, strengthening capacities to establish and process data and re-embedding the MDGs into more compre-
hensive strategies of sustainable human development.
The Institute for Development and Peace (INEF) , whi was founded in 1990 is a resear institute of
the Department of Social Sciences at the University of Duisburg-Essen, located at the Campus Duisburg.It closely cooperates with the Peace and Development Foundation (SEF), Bonn. The Institute combines
basic resear with applied and policy-related resear in the following areas: Global Governance and
Human Security, Fragile States, Crisis Prevention and Civilian Conict Management, Human Rights and
Corporate Social Responsibility. Director of INEF is Prof. Dr. Tobias Debiel, the Executive Director is Dr.
Cornelia Ulbert.
Series INEF Policy Brief
The INEF Policy Briefs take up important current events and resear issues in a concise manner and
discuss a range of available policy options and recommendations. They are published at irregular intervals.
Jens Martens/Tobias Debiel: The MDG Project in
Crisis. Midpoint Review and Prospects for the
Future. Duisburg: Institute for Development and
Peace (INEF Policy Brief 4/2008, September)