the impact of human activities on drought and flood ......the impact of human activities on drought...
TRANSCRIPT
The impact of human activities on drought and flood severity across the U.S.
Xiaogang He1, Yoshihide Wada2, Niko Wanders3, Justin Sheffield4
1Princeton University2 International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
3Utrecht University4University of Southampton
Human Interventions (HIs)
Land use changeLand use change
Groundwater pumping
Irrigation Reservoir/Dam
Water abstraction
Drought and human activities
Meteorological(Rainfall deficiency)
Agricultural(Soil moisture deficiency)
Hydrological(Streamflow deficiency)
DROUGHT
Climate Variability
Human Interventions (HIs)
Drought and human activities
Meteorological(Rainfall deficiency)
Agricultural(Soil moisture deficiency)
Hydrological(Streamflow deficiency)
DROUGHT
Land use changeLand use change
Groundwater pumping
Irrigation Reservoir/Dam
Water abstraction
Climate change + Climate VariabilityAttribution of HIs ➙ Drought Resilience?Scientific Questions:
① Can we quantitatively assess how of humaninterventions (HIs) contribute to U.S. (hydrological) drought risk?
② Where do HIs and where do they ?
③ What are the between anddue to HIs (e.g., reservoir operation)?
④ How does this compare with impacts on risk?
Methodology: PCR-GLOBWB model
• Simulation period• 1980-2016• 5 year spin up
• Resolution• 5 min, ~10 km
• Input forcing• NLDAS2, Prec, T
VSControl Experiment
• Only natural variability
Contrast Experiments
• Include different types of human activities (e.g., irrigation, reservoir, sectoral water use)
Human Intervention Data
Reservoir capacity Irrigation area
Sectoral water use
Industrial
Domestic
Distribution of Power Stations
Wada et al. (2016)
IrrigationDomestic water use
Industrial water use
Livestock water use
Reservoir operation
Groundwater pumping
Natural ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗Human ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
Irrigation(+Reservoir+GW) ✓ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✓ ✓
Irrigation(-Reservoir+GW) ✓ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✗ ✓Non-Irrigation
(+Reservoir+GW) ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓Non-Irrigation(-Reservoir+GW) ✗ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✗ ✓
Experiment design
ScenariosActivities
☆
☆☆
☆
Drought severity(Standardized drought deficit volume (StDef))
Drought duration
Drought CharacteristicsSt
ream
flow
(m3 /
s)
Duration
Deficit (severity)
Impacts on floods characterized by standardized excess (StExcess)
JJA
DJF
Intensification
Alleviation
Results - Relative contribution to Drought Severity
All Human activitiesMAM
SON
%
-10
-30
-50
-70
-90
10
30
50
70
90
Alle
viat
e
Results – Irrigation versus Non-irrigation Interventions
High plains
Mississippi embayment
Columbia plateau
Snake river
Central valley
Edwards-Trinity aquifer
JJA
DJF
Irrigation%
-10
-30
-50
-70
-90
10
30
50
70
90
Alle
viat
e
%
-10
-30
-50
-70
-90
10
30
50
70
90DJF
JJA
Non-Irrigation%
-10
-30
-50
-70
-90
10
30
50
70
90
Alle
viat
e
Results - Does drought travel downstream?D
owns
tream
Intensify
All water useIrrigation
Non-Irrigation25%
Median75%
Dow
nstre
am
Intensify Intensify
Dow
nstre
amIntensify
Dow
nstre
am
Droughts
Results - Comparing with HI impacts onFlood Severity
Alle
viat
e
%
Alle
viat
e
Floods
%
Comparing Drought and Flood Downstream Effects
All water useIrrigation
Non-Irrigation25%
Median75%
FloodsDroughts
• Impacts on droughts are much higher and tend to have stronger downstream effects.
• Floods tends to be alleviated downstream
Summary
Using a macroscale hydrological and water resources model, we tryto unravel the relative contribution of human interventions todrought and flood severity over the US.
Irrigation reduces hydrological drought in areas of intensive irrigation,while shallow groundwater pumping can increase hydrologicaldrought. Non-irrigation water use has more spatially diverse impacts.
Downstream accumulation effects add another layer of complexity toassess the impacts of HIs on drought severity. Droughts are not justlocal.
Floods are also affected: mostly intensification but less relative impact
Work needed to corroborate with ground observations andknowledge
Water source to meet different demand -Surface water abstraction
0.001
0 0.002
0.003
0.004
0.005
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.01m/month
All human activities
Irrigation water use
Non-Irrigation water use
Water source to meet different demand -Non-fossil GW abstraction
0.001
0 0.002
0.003
0.004
0.005
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.01m/month
All human activities
Irrigation water use
Non-Irrigation water use
Water source to meet different demand -Fossil GW abstraction
0.001
0 0.002
0.003
0.004
0.005
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.01m/month
All human activities
Irrigation water use
Non-Irrigation water use