The Future of Climate Change Modeling to Predict Future Climates Computer ModelsInvolve mathematical equations to describe interactions in the physics, biology and chemistry of the Earths climate system Computer Models 2These equations are so complicated that computers must be used to solve them Computers create descriptions of possible future climate patterns from the results Computer Models 3Once a model is developed it must be tested Scientists run the model using past data If it accurately reproduces past data it will likely give good predictions of the future Computer Models 4 Computer models used presently indicate that the climate will continue to change Models are reliable, but may not account for all of the complexities of Earths climate system Aerosol Pollution Scientists think that increases in aerosol pollution have masked the severity of global warming Aerosols are tiny particles generated by natural and anthropogenic sources It is difficult to predict the amount of global aerosol pollution because it partly depends on unpredictable events (ex. volcanic eruptions, forest fires) Canadas Future Climate Modeledamerica/canada/_derived/index.htm_txt_canada-map.gif Computer climate models predict some initial positive effects for Canada 1. Crops will grow farther north 2. Growing season extended 3. More warm weather crops will grow (ex. more fruit will grow in the Great Lakes area) Canadas Future Climate Modeled 2Computer models also predict that higher temperatures will go hand in hand with more precipitation, and more frequent and severe weather events (ex. flash floods, harsh winters & windstorms) Confidence Ratings of Climate Change ModelsIPCC scientists have found ways to estimate their confidence in their computer models, evaluations and predictions Confidence Level Graph Confidence Ratings of Climate Change Models 2cartoon.jpg The IPCC scientists give higher confidence levels to their predictions and conclusions if they have: 1. More data 2. More accurate measurements 3. Greater understanding of the factors involved in a particular climatic event The Future of Climate Change Political Action on Climate Change IPCCClimate research depends on international co- operation Scientists in different countries share climate data and their tools for collecting it The IPCC publishes its findings in reports available to everyone Time to ActOur understanding of global energy systems has improved greatly Now governments must be encouraged to act to reduce the anthropogenic greenhouse effect The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) An agreement of 192 of the worlds nations to act on stabilizing anthropogenic greenhouse gas emmisions Established in 1992 UNFCCC 2 UNFCCC 3Organizes meeting to discuss scientific and political action Mandate sustainable development of the worlds resources Kyoto Protocol on Climate Change Kyoto Protocol on Climate ChangeIn Kyoto, Japan, in 1997, Canada and 160 other countries agreed to set a goal of an average 5% reduction in Global greenhouse gas emissions by 2012 The agreement went into effect in Feb As of 2008, 183 countries had ratified the protocol Kyoto Protocol on Climate ChangeAccording to the Kyoto Protocol, Canada must reduce its emissions of GHG to 6% below 1990 levels In reality Canadas emissions increased 22% between Canadas Kyoto Target Kyoto Emission Reduction Credits Credits can be earned by a country for actions that reduce global GHG emissions This does not mean the country has reduced its own levels Kyoto Emission Reduction Credits 2 Credits can be awarded for: 1. A developed country helps a developing country reduce its emissions 2. A developed country helps another developed country to reduce its emissions 3. A country engages in practices that help remove CO 2 from the atmosphere Go Green Ontarios Action Plan on Climate Change Reduce Ontarios GHG emissions Improve public transport in the GTA Encourage jobs in green technology Decrease coal-fired power plants; increase power generated by renewable resources Protect green spaces and agricultural land