How to Predict the Future

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How to Predict the Future

How to Predict the FutureWilliam HertlingDefrag 2014

201520252035

Video2005Avg Speed: 1.2mbps320 x 200 x 16 x 20% = 1.6mbps4Napster1999Avg Speed: 88kbps128 encoding = 3MBDownload time: 4 minutesVideo2005Avg Speed: 1.2mbps320 x 200 x 16 x 20% = 1.6mbps5

Predicted: 62 MbpsActual 59.3 MbpsDifference: 4.8%

PredictionYearWhyLast magnetic platter hard drive manufacturedPredictionYearWhyLast magnetic platter hard drive manufactured2020SSD capacity increasing 80%/year, compared to 65% for magnetic platters. SSD pulls ahead in 2020.PredictionYearWhyLast magnetic platter hard drive manufactured2020SSD capacity increasing 80%/year, compared to 65% for magnetic platters. SSD pulls ahead in 2020.Implantable computersPredictionYearWhyLast magnetic platter hard drive manufactured2020SSD capacity increasing 80%/year, compared to 65% for magnetic platters. SSD pulls ahead in 2020.Implantable computers2030Computers shrinking 24% per year. Reaches easily implantable size by 2030.PredictionYearWhyLast magnetic platter hard drive manufactured2020SSD capacity increasing 80%/year, compared to 65% for magnetic platters. SSD pulls ahead in 2020.Implantable computers2030Computers shrinking 24% per year. Reaches easily implantable size by 2030.Human-level general purpose AIPredictionYearWhyLast magnetic platter hard drive manufactured2020SSD capacity increasing 80%/year, compared to 65% for magnetic platters. SSD pulls ahead in 2020.Implantable computers2030Computers shrinking 24% per year. Reaches easily implantable size by 2030.Human-level general purpose AI2025-2050Processing power growing 47%/year, 50x/decade. Depends on estimates of complexity of human intelligence. Even if its 1000x more complicated, thats only 20 years further away.Objection #1Exponential growth is not enough.

There are hard problems to solve, and we dont know how.

Source: http://wiki.ardupilot-mega.googlecode.com/git/images/ArduPilotMegaImages/APM-IMU.png

14Objection #2We havent done it, therefore we cant do it.

Weve had forty years of disappointments.

Source: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/86/First_flight2.jpg16

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/2/22/IBM_Watson.PNG17Objection #3Were going to run into fundamental limits.

The trend cant continue.

Intel 80386You are here19My Use CasesSeed for creativity and brainstorming

Validate other peoples assumptions

1986

1997Amiga 1000 photo: http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Datei:Amiga_1000_PAL.jpgHP computer photo: http://nostalgy.net.ru/museum/hp-nets/1.jpg

21Step 1: Calculate Annual Increase

Compounded Annual Growth RateStep 2: Extrapolate

Sanity Check

Prediction off by ~ 2xStep 3: Predict

CaveatsTo receive the following:A copy of this presentationSample spreadsheetsLinks to my booksSample chapters

Just pick up your phone, and send an email:To: hertling@SendYourSlides.comSubject: defrag

William Hertling, @hertlingWant to Learn More?

To receive the following:A copy of this presentationSample spreadsheetsLinks to my booksSample chapters

Just pick up your phone, and send an email:To: hertling@SendYourSlides.comSubject: defrag

William Hertling, @hertlingWant to Learn More?

hertling@SendYourSlides.comdefrag