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Report 3: The Egyptian Revolution Against the Muslim Brotherhood 1 A Report by 9 Bedford Row 10 December 2015 9 Bedford Row London WC1R 4AZ 0044 207 489 2727 www.9bri.com The Egyptian Revolution Against the Muslim Brotherhood

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Report 3: The Egyptian Revolution

Against the Muslim Brotherhood

1

A Report by

9 Bedford Row

10 December 2015

9 Bedford Row

London

WC1R 4AZ

0044 207 489 2727

www.9bri.com

The Egyptian Revolution

Against the Muslim Brotherhood

Report 3: The Egyptian Revolution

Against the Muslim Brotherhood

2

Table of Contents

CHAPTER 1 .......................................................................................................................................... 4

INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................................. 4 1.1 SUBJECT MATTER OF REPORT ........................................................................................................ 5 1.2 METHODOLOGY ................................................................................................................................. 7

CHAPTER 2 .......................................................................................................................................... 9

THE BEGINNING OF THE END OF THE MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD RULE ......................... 9 2.1 INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................................................. 10

2.1.1 The Peoples’ Revolution against the Muslim Brotherhood ...................................... 10 2.2.1 Longstanding distrust of the Muslim Brotherhood ...................................................... 12 2.2.2 Separating the army from politics ....................................................................................... 15 2.2.3 The army never planned to get involved in politics ..................................................... 16

2.3 ARMY DEMONSTRATES LOYALTY TO MORSI GOVERNMENT ................................................... 20 2.3.1 Army continues to back Morsi amidst rising tensions ................................................ 20 2.3.2 Pressure grows on army to support demands of Egyptian people ....................... 27 2.3.3 Tipping point ................................................................................................................................. 29 2.3.4 The government rebuked al-Sisi’s attempts for proper dialogue among all political parties ............................................................................................................................................. 33

2.4 THE END OF THE MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD GOVERNMENT ..................................................... 36 2.4.1 Former close allies of Morsi now supported army intervention ............................ 36

2.5 AGREEMENT TO REMOVE MORSI INVOLVED A BROAD AND REPRESENTATIVE COALITION –

ARMY DID NOT ACT UNILATERALLY! .......................................................................................................... 39 2.6 CLOSING REMARKS........................................................................................................................ 42

CHAPTER 3 ........................................................................................................................................43

THE REVOLUTION ..........................................................................................................................43 3.1 3 JULY 2013 .................................................................................................................................. 44

3.1.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................... 44 3.1.2 3 July 2013: Morsi’s rejection of the ultimatum ........................................................... 47 3.1.3 3 July 2013: Response to Morsi’s rejection of the ultimatum ........................................ 49 3.1.4 3 July 2013: Army Response to Morsi’s rejection of the ultimatum ........................... 52 3.1.5 3 July 2013: Last minute negotiations ..................................................................................... 53 3.1.6 3 July 2013: Al-Sisi’s speech .................................................................................................... 56 3.1.7 Coalition Roadmap ..................................................................................................................... 62 3.1.8 3 July 2013: Legitimacy............................................................................................................. 65 3.1.9 3 July 2013: Morsi after al-Sisi’s speech ............................................................................ 69 3.1.10 3 July 2013: Media ................................................................................................................. 71 3.1.11 3 July 2013: Responses to al-Sisi’s announcement .................................................. 72 3.2 Transitional Government ......................................................................................................... 74

3.3 CLOSING REMARKS ........................................................................................................................ 79

CHAPTER 4 ........................................................................................................................................80

THE MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD’S RESPONSE ..........................................................................80 4.1 INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................................................. 81 4.2 PROVOCATION OF SECURITY FORCES ......................................................................................... 82

Report 3: The Egyptian Revolution

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4.2.1 Inciting violence ........................................................................................................................... 82 4.2.2 Attacks against security forces ................................................................................................... 87

4.3 CONDITIONS AT AL-NAHDA SQUARE AND RABAA SQUARE PRIOR TO 14 AUGUST 2013 92 4.3.1 Disruption to local residents .................................................................................................. 92 4.3.2 Violence in the camps ................................................................................................................ 96

4.4 INITIAL ATTEMPTS TO CLEAR THE CAMPS USING PEACEFUL MEANS..................................... 99 4.5 BARRICADING THE CAMPS .......................................................................................................... 107 4.6 OVERVIEW OF THE DISPERSAL .................................................................................................. 110

4.6.1 Rabaa Square dispersal ......................................................................................................... 110 4.6.2 Al-Nadha Square dispersal ................................................................................................... 112

4.7 USE OF FORCE BY SECURITY FORCES ........................................................................................ 114 4.8 CONCLUSION ................................................................................................................................. 116

CHAPTER 5 ..................................................................................................................................... 118

COMPARISON WITH OTHER CONFLICTS ............................................................................. 118 5.1 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................ 119 5.2 UNDERSTANDING EGYPT IN THE CONTEXT OF LIBYA AND SYRIA ....................................... 120 5.3 THE EARLY DEVELOPMENTS OF THE CONFLICTS IN LIBYA AND SYRIA ............................. 121 5.4 SPILL OVER INTO EGYPT ............................................................................................................. 127 5.5 CONCLUSION ................................................................................................................................. 130

CHAPTER 6 ..................................................................................................................................... 132

CONCLUSION .................................................................................................................................. 132 6.1 THE IMPASSE AND PEOPLE’S REVOLUTION OF 2013 ........................................................... 133 6.2 TRANSITION FROM REVOLUTION TO STABILITY .................................................................... 135 6.3 RESTORING SECURITY AND ORDER IN THE STREETS OF CAIRO .......................................... 137

Report 3: The Egyptian Revolution

Against the Muslim Brotherhood

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CHAPTER 1

Introduction

Report 3: The Egyptian Revolution

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1.1 Subject Matter of Report

1. This report is the third in a series of reports commissioned from members

of the 9 Bedford Row International Practice Group, by the State Lawsuit

(Litigation) Authority of Egypt which aims to present an independent and

comprehensive review of the Muslim Brotherhood and its allied groups

and organisations. The first report, entitled “The History of the Muslim

Brotherhood” (hereinafter, Report 1)1 was released on 2 April 2015. The

second report, “The Egyptian Experience of the Muslim Brotherhood in

Power 2012 – 2013” (hereinafter, Report 2)2 was released on 3 June 2015.

2. This third report looks at the final days leading up to the collapse of the

presidency of Mohamed Morsi and an analysis of the key events that

unfolded in the weeks following his removal from office. Specifically, it

reviews the revolution of 30 June 2013 when the Egyptian people forced

Morsi to step down on 3 July 2013 and the following clashes that ensued

between security forces and Muslim Brotherhood supporters.

3. Chapter 2 reviews the final weeks of the Morsi regime and charts the key

incidents and decisions that precipitated his downfall. It discusses the

resignation of key cabinet ministers that had at this point lost faith in

Morsi. Further, it focuses on the repeated efforts, in particular by then

Minister of Defence Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi, to encourage Morsi to form a

1 “The History of the Muslim Brotherhood”, 9 Bedford Row, 2 April 2015. 2 “The Egyptian Experience of the Muslim Brotherhood in Power 2012 – 2013”, 9 Bedford

Row, 3 June 2015.

Report 3: The Egyptian Revolution

Against the Muslim Brotherhood

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more inclusive government and meet the demands of the people and

thereby continue in office. In particular, the chapter highlights the

collective voice of the vast majority of Egyptians who had become

disenchanted with life under a Muslim Brotherhood government and

ultimately demanded that Morsi step down.

4. Chapter 3 looks in depth at the events that unfolded on 3 July 2013 when

Morsi was removed from office. It reviews the build-up to these events

and the formation of the broad and representative coalition that was

formed to reflect all ethnic, political and religious groups in the country

and which would eventually make the decision to oust Morsi. It also looks

at the various demonstrations and violent incidents that occurred around

the country in clashes between Muslim Brotherhood supporters and anti-

Morsi protestors.

5. Chapter 4 goes on to chart the events that occurred in the weeks following

the removal of Morsi and the response of the Muslim Brotherhood to this

event. In particular, it focuses on the contextual and relevant background

surrounding the dispersal of Muslim Brotherhood supporters from mass

sit-ins at al-Nadha Square and Rabaa al-Adawiya Square, which had

paralysed the daily functioning of the country.

6. Chapter 5 looks at the 30 June 2013 revolution in Egypt in the context of

other popular uprisings in the Middle East, in particular those that

occurred in Syria and Libya. It provides an analysis of how events in

Report 3: The Egyptian Revolution

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neighbouring countries acted as a warning sign to the Egyptian people

and prompted a ‘call to action’ against Islamist extremists and militant

groups – particularly where such exercise near absolute power in the

country.

7. Finally, Chapter 6 offers an assessment of the events that led to the

collapse of the Muslim Brotherhood rule in Egypt and the events that

followed in the weeks thereafter. The evidence examined reveals that there

was no plan or pre-existing intention to either remove Morsi from power

or use force against Muslim Brotherhood supporters when it became

necessary to intervene to disperse the mass sit-ins and restore a measure of

normalcy and calm.

1.2 Methodology

8. This report was produced using both open-source materials, drawing

heavily on news reports and other public sources, as well as official

documents, speeches, interviews and records obtained from key

individuals and the Egyptian government. Where reference is made to

sources freely available on-line, hyperlinks have been inserted for ease of

reference.3

3 All open source links were last accessed at the time of publication of this report.

Report 3: The Egyptian Revolution

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9. Further information as to the purpose and objective of these reports, as

well as a glossary of terms, is provided in Report 1. 4

4 “The History of the Muslim Brotherhood”, 9 Bedford Row, 2 April 2015.

Report 3: The Egyptian Revolution

Against the Muslim Brotherhood

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CHAPTER 2

The Beginning of the End of the Muslim

Brotherhood Rule

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“Egypt’s first revolution was to get rid of the dead hand, the second revolution was to

get rid of the deadheads and the third revolution was to escape from the dead end.” 5

Thomas L. Friedman,

on Egypt 2011-2013

2.1 Introduction

2.1.1 The Peoples’ Revolution against the Muslim Brotherhood

10. Events in Egypt since the start of the revolution that ousted Mubarak in

January 2011 suspended the country in a state of social, political and

economic limbo. Over the next two-and-a-half years, Egyptians witnessed

the overthrow of a decades-long dictatorship, the rise of the Muslim

Brotherhood and the formation of a new Islamist government and

constitution.

11. Celebrated author and three-time Pulitzer Prize winner, Thomas L.

Friedman, put it in a nutshell.6 Between 2011 and 2013 Egypt, he says,

went through three revolutions. The first revolution happened because a

large number of mostly non-Islamist Egyptian youths grew fed up with

the suffocating restrictions of the Mubarak era. The generals who replaced

Mubarak proved so incompetent at governing that many liberal Egyptians

were ready to vote for the Muslim Brotherhood’s Mohamed Morsi over a

former Mubarak-era general in the June 2012 elections (the second

5 Friedman, T. L., “Egypt’s Three Revolutions”, The New York Times, 23 July 2013. 6 Friedman, T. L., “Egypt’s Three Revolutions”, The New York Times, 23 July 2013.

Report 3: The Egyptian Revolution

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revolution). Once president, Morsi however proved more interested in

consolidating the Muslim Brotherhood’s grip on power than governing

himself, culminating in millions of people taking to the streets on 30 June

2013 “virtually begg[ing] the military to oust Morsi” in what was to

become, according to Friedman, the third revolution.7

12. The previous report in this series, Report 2,8 discussed the election of

Mohamed Morsi as president and the Muslim Brotherhood-led

government as well as the events that led to its eventual downfall.

13. This chapter reviews the last days of the Morsi government and considers

the circumstances that ultimately led to the popular revolution that would

remove Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood from power.

14. A comprehensive review of the key factors that led to the downfall of the

Morsi government after only a year in power is set out in Report 2.9

Accordingly, only a brief summary of the key factors is provided in this

chapter.

7 Friedman, T. L., “Egypt’s Three Revolutions”, The New York Times, 23 July 2013. 8 “The Egyptian Experience of the Muslim Brotherhood in Power 2012 – 2013”, 9 Bedford

Row, 3 June 2015. 9 “The Egyptian Experience of the Muslim Brotherhood in Power 2012 – 2013”, 9 Bedford

Row, 3 June 2015.

Report 3: The Egyptian Revolution

Against the Muslim Brotherhood

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2.2 Collapse of the Muslim Brotherhood government

2.2.1 Longstanding distrust of the Muslim Brotherhood

15. Tensions among non-Islamist government officials and other government

institutions (in particular the police and security services) were

immediately apparent upon news of the election of Mohamed Morsi as

president in June 2012.10 The distrust among many officials and public

sector workers of the Muslim Brotherhood was palpable and the thought

of serving under a Muslim Brotherhood government caused widespread

consternation.11

16. Such concern was not without basis. Little attention was paid in the last

days of the Mubarak regime when a group of Muslim Brotherhood leaders

broke free from their cells in a prison in the far off Wadi el-Natroun desert.

This incident triggered a series of further prison breaks by other Muslim

Brotherhood members around the country resulting in deadly clashes.

Among those who escaped from prison were future president and Muslim

Brotherhood member, Mohamed Morsi. 12

10 Alsharif, A., and Saleh, Y., “Special Report: The real force behind Egypt's 'revolution of the

state'”, Reuters, 10 October 2013. See also, Ezzat, D., “Egypt: The president, the army and the

police”, Ahram Online, 27 December 2012. 11 Alsharif, A., and Saleh, Y., “Special Report: The real force behind Egypt's 'revolution of the

state'”, Reuters, 10 October 2013. See also, Ezzat, D., “Egypt: The president, the army and the

police”, Ahram Online, 27 December 2012. 12 Alsharif, A., and Saleh, Y., “Special Report: The real force behind Egypt's 'revolution of the

state'”, Reuters, 10 October 2013. See also, Ezzat, D., “Egypt: The president, the army and the

police”, Ahram Online, 27 December 2012.

Report 3: The Egyptian Revolution

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17. Other events exacerbated the feelings of distrust and anxiety about the

Muslim Brotherhood. For example, the January 2011 attacks by Muslim

Brotherhood members on public institutions and police buildings which

left over 200 police officers dead meant that colleagues who survived the

attacks were now obliged to obey orders from their killers, resulting in an

inevitably precarious working relationship between police and security

officials and their new paymasters. 13

18. A detailed history of the Muslim Brotherhood, mapping its hierarchy and

structure and documenting its culture of violence and association with

international Islamist terrorist groups, is set out in Report 1.14

19. Morsi’s brief period in power saw the Muslim Brotherhood impose itself

as the real ‘power behind the throne’. 15 Its influence over Morsi was

obvious from the start with a raft of decisions in the first few weeks and

months of his presidency designed to place him and his Muslim

Brotherhood-dominated government beyond the law16 so as to consolidate

13 Alsharif, A., and Saleh, Y., “Special Report: The real force behind Egypt's 'revolution of the

state'”, Reuters, 10 October 2013. 14 “The History of the Muslim Brotherhood”, 9 Bedford Row, 2 April 2015. 15 “The Egyptian Experience of the Muslim Brotherhood in Power 2012 – 2013”, 9 Bedford

Row, 3 June 2015. 16 See generally “The Egyptian Experience of the Muslim Brotherhood in Power 2012 – 2013”,

9 Bedford Row, 3 June 2015. For further information see, “Egypt's Morsi assumes wide

powers”, Al Jazeera, 23 November 2012; El-Rashidi, Y., “Egypt: Whose Constitution?”, The

New York Review of Books, 3 January 2013. See also, “Morsi 'power grab' angers Egypt

opposition groups”, The Guardian, 23 November 2012.; Kirkpatrick, D., and El-Sheikh, M.,

“Citing Deadlock, Egypt’s Leader Seizes New Power and Plans Mubarak Retrial”, The New

York Times, 22 November 2012; “Top judges, opposition protest Morsi’s power-extending

decree”, RT News, 24 November 2012.; Sabry, B., “Absolute Power: Morsi Decree Stuns

Egyptians”, 22 November 2012.

Report 3: The Egyptian Revolution

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power and facilitate a sweeping Islamification of all segments of

government and society. 17

20. Outside of Morsi’s cabinet, which throughout his rule became increasingly

populated with Muslim Brotherhood members or supporters,18 there was a

broad recognition within key state institutions that Egypt was being taken

down the wrong path and that the Muslim Brotherhood had effectively

taken the reins of power to further its self-confessed objective of creating

an Islamic caliphate. 19

17 See generally “The Egyptian Experience of the Muslim Brotherhood in Power 2012 – 2013”,

9 Bedford Row, 3 June 2015. For further information see, “Former top court judge challenges

Egypt's new constitution”, CBC News, 8 January 2013.; El-Rashidi, Y., “Egypt: Whose

Constitution?”, The New York Review of Books, 3 January 2013.; Essam El-Din, G., “Egypt

PM Qandil makes some surprise, controversial ministerial choices”, Ahram Online, 3 August

2012.; Nordland, R. and El-Sheikh, M., “Egyptian President Names Minister in Interim

Cabinet as Premier”, The New York Times, 24 July 2012.; “The Brothers of the Cabinet”,

Egypt Independent, 10 August 2012.; “Media under Morsi: chains remains in place”, Daily

News Egypt, 18 September 2012. Accessed at

http://www.dailynewsegypt.com/2012/09/18/media-under-morsy-chains-remain-in-place/ 18 Essam El-Din, G., “Egypt PM Qandil makes some surprise, controversial ministerial

choices”, Ahram Online, 3 August 2012.; Nordland, R. and El-Sheikh, M., “Egyptian

President Names Minister in Interim Cabinet as Premier”, The New York Times, 24 July

2012.; “The Brothers of the Cabinet”, Egypt Independent, 10 August 2012.; 19 El-Rashidi, Y., “Egypt: The Rule of the Brotherhood”, The New York Review of Books, 7

February 2013.; “Egypt's Morsi grants himself far-reaching powers”, CNS News, 22

November 2012.

Report 3: The Egyptian Revolution

Against the Muslim Brotherhood

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2.2.2 Separating the army from politics

21. Morsi represented Egypt’s first civilian president since 1952 20 and the

army made clear its desire to respect the result of the elections by keeping

a distance from politics.

22. Former general, Talaat Mosallam, plainly stated that the military “has no

interest in going back into politics.”21 Al-Sisi, as newly appointed Minister

of Defence, reiterated the army’s non-political stance and announced his

ambition to prioritise a “comprehensive programme that develops real

training for the forces in all military branches.”22

23. Al-Sisi was clear as to his mandate; he was to stick to matters pertaining to

the armed forces and military strategy. Politics was a matter for the civil

government. 23

24. There was no indication at this early stage that events were to unfold over

the next few months which would eventually force the army, albeit

reluctantly, to change its position and take a firmer stance with Morsi and

the Muslim Brotherhood government.

20 Black, B., “Mohamed Morsi Victory is a Landmark for Egypt – but a Qualified One” The

Guardian, 24 June 2012. 21 Fleishman, J., and Abdellatif, R., “Egypt’s Morsi leans on uncomfortable alliance with

military” Los Angeles Times, 9 December 2012. 22 Khalaf, R., “Morsi code reveals stance on army” Financial Times, 8 October 2012. 23 Khalaf, R., “Morsi code reveals stance on army” Financial Times, 8 October 2012.

Report 3: The Egyptian Revolution

Against the Muslim Brotherhood

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2.2.3 The army never planned to get involved in politics

25. International media and reports have tended to focus on the army’s role in

the revolution of 30 June 2013 with some commentators identifying it as

the spearhead in the revolution that removed Morsi and the Muslim

Brotherhood from power.24

26. The reality is that the seed of the revolution was planted long before the

army got involved and the primary impetus for Morsi's removal came not

from the army but from the civilian masses.25

27. Almost immediately after assuming power, the Muslim Brotherhood

signalled its intent in a string of controversial moves that set the clock

ticking on its time in government (see Report 2).26

28. Following the violent mass protests against Morsi‘s infamous 21

November decree,27 senior army officials offered to act as mediators in an

24 Shafick, H., “A tale of two revolutions: Egypt 2011-2013”, Open Democracy, 1 November

2013. See also, “Egypt crisis: Army ousts President Mohammed Morsi”, BBC News, 4 July

2013. 25 Alsharif, A., and Saleh, Y., “Special Report: The real force behind Egypt's 'revolution of the

state'”, Reuters, 10 October 2013. 26 “The Egyptian Experience of the Muslim Brotherhood in Power 2012 – 2013”, 9 Bedford

Row, 3 June 2015. 27 El-Rashidi, Y., “Egypt: The Rule of the Brotherhood”, The New York Review of Books, 7

February 2013.; “Egypt's Morsi grants himself far-reaching powers”, CNS News, 22

November 2012.; “The Egyptian Experience of the Muslim Brotherhood in Power 2012 –

2013”, 9 Bedford Row, 3 June 2015.

Report 3: The Egyptian Revolution

Against the Muslim Brotherhood

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effort to calm tensions 28 between Muslim Brotherhood supporters and

anti-government protestors (see also Report 2).29 Despite the dictatorial

nature of the announcement, the army, while opposed to the president’s

decision, continued to support the government and did not block the new

draft constitution.30

29. Morsi defiantly dismissed the army’s offer of assistance and called off a

meeting sought by senior military officials to discuss what action the

government should take to calm the brewing storm and avoid further

bloodshed. 31 This was seen as a move that demonstrated not only Morsi’s

own independent authority but also the army’s position that it was not the

latter’s place to get involved in politics – a position the army, and al-Sisi,

dutifully accepted. 32

30. Illustrative of the army’s aversion to interfere in government matters, one

army Colonel when asked about Morsi’s refusal to allow the army to get

involved as an intermediary stated,

28 “Transcript: Egypt's army statement”, Al Jazeera, 3 July 2013. See also, Abdelaziz, S., Sayah,

R., and Wedeman, B., “Egypt's military gives Morsy ultimatum”, CNN, 2 July 2013.;

Kirkpatrick, D., El Sheikh, M., “Morsi Spurned Deals, Seeing Military as Tamed” New York

Times, 6 July 2013. 29 “The Egyptian Experience of the Muslim Brotherhood in Power 2012 – 2013”, 9 Bedford

Row, 3 June 2015. 30 Stacher, J., “Why The Generals Back Morsi” Foreign Affairs, 20 December 2012. 31 Alsharif, A., and Saleh, Y., “Special Report: The real force behind Egypt's 'revolution of the

state'”, Reuters, 10 October 2013. 32 Alsharif, A., and Saleh, Y., “Special Report: The real force behind Egypt's 'revolution of the

state'”, Reuters, 10 October 2013.

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"It was a veiled message to stay out of politics, and we got it, as

we understood that [Morsi] was an elected leader and (it) would

be hard to defy that, … but it was clear by then where his rule

was driving the state.” 33

31. Far from plotting to overthrow the government and take power, the army

was – unlike several key institutions within the public sector34 - keen to

give Morsi’s government a chance. The frustration with the army’s

reluctance to get involved in political affairs was revealed by a senior

security officer of the Minister of Interior who commented,

“The army, like many people who have not dealt directly with

the Brotherhood and seen their dirtiness wanted to believe that

they have something to offer to Egypt.”35

32. According to both military as well as government sources,36

“[Al]-Sisi's call for dialogue, intended to reconcile the president

and leaders of the opposition's National Salvation Front was

33 Alsharif, A., and Saleh, Y., “Special Report: The real force behind Egypt's 'revolution of the

state'”, Reuters, 10 October 2013. See also, Mourad, H., “Why Egypt’s army overthrew

Morsi”, Ahram Online, 13 July 2013. 34 Alsharif, A., and Saleh, Y., “Special Report: The real force behind Egypt's 'revolution of the

state'”, Reuters, 10 October 2013. See also Mourad, H., “Why Egypt’s army overthrew

Morsi”, Ahram Online, 13 July 2013. 35 Alsharif, A., and Saleh, Y., “Special Report: The real force behind Egypt's 'revolution of the

state'”, Reuters, 10 October 2013. See also, Mourad, H., “Why Egypt’s army overthrew

Morsi”, Ahram Online, 13 July 2013. 36 Ezzat, D., “Egypt: The president, the army and the police”, Ahram Online, 27 December

2012.

Report 3: The Egyptian Revolution

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initially undertaken with the approval of the president but was

cancelled after the president changed his mind due to

opposition from the Guidance Bureau of the Muslim

Brotherhood, from which Morsi hails.” 37

33. The Muslim Brotherhood’s political strategy of ‘Ihkwanization’ (see Report

2)38 was being exerted to great effect within the government. However, it

knew that to become all-powerful, it would need the army onside and

therefore repeated attempts were made by members to infiltrate it so as to

“Brotherhoodise” the army. 39

34. Apparently, al-Sisi did not want the army to play a political role.40 Rather,

he preferred that army to remain neutral. The Muslim Brotherhood was so

persistent however, that al-Sisi was eventually forced to make a public

statement on 14 February 2013 stressing that he would not allow the

Muslim Brotherhood, or any other political group, to dominate the army. 41

37 Ezzat, D., “Egypt: The president, the army and the police”, Ahram Online, 27 December

2012. 38 “The Egyptian Experience of the Muslim Brotherhood in Power 2012 – 2013”, 9 Bedford

Row, 3 June 2015. 39 Mourad, H., “Why Egypt’s army overthrew Morsi”, Ahram Online, 13 July 2013. 40 Mourad, H., “Why Egypt’s army overthrew Morsi”, Ahram Online, 13 July 2013. See also,

Kirkpatrick, D., El Sheikh, M., “Morsi Spurned Deals, Seeing Military as Tamed” New York

Times, 6 July 2013. 41 Mourad, H., “Why Egypt’s army overthrew Morsi”, Ahram Online, 13 July 2013.

Report 3: The Egyptian Revolution

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2.3 Army demonstrates loyalty to Morsi government

2.3.1 Army continues to back Morsi amidst rising tensions

35. Morsi’s relationship with the army began as one of suspicion,42 following

years of persecution of the Muslim Brotherhood members by the military

under the former regime (see Report 1 and Report 2).4344 In conjunction,

the army too became disillusioned by its leaders, in particular with

General Field Marshal Tantawi, who it was perceived had mismanaged

the army’s institutional and strategic interests and, as a result, national

security.45

36. Morsi’s announcement on 12 August 2012 to reshuffle five senior military

figures, forcibly ending Tantawi’s twenty-year career as Minister of

Defence was welcomed.46 Known for his loyalty to Mubarak,47 Tantawi’s

dismissal marked a symbolic departure from the former government, and

the beginning of a fresh start between the military and the government.

42 Kirkpatrick, D., and El Sheikh, M., “Morsi Spurned Deals, Seeing Military as Tamed” New

York Times, 6 July 2013. 43 “The History of the Muslim Brotherhood”, 9 Bedford Row, 2 April 2015. 44 The Egyptian Experience of the Muslim Brotherhood in Power 2012 – 2013”, 9 Bedford

Row, 3 June 2015. 45 El-Dine, C., “The Military and Egypt’s Transformation Process” German Institute for

International and Security Affairs, 6 February 2013. 46 Connolly, K., “Egypt Leader Mursi Orders Army Chief Tantawi To Resign” BBC News, 12

August 2012. 47 El Gundy, Z., “Meet General El-Sisi, Egypt's defence minister” Ahram Online, 13 Aug 2012.

Report 3: The Egyptian Revolution

Against the Muslim Brotherhood

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Tantawi was replaced by then Director of Military Intelligence, Abdel-

Fattah al-Sisi.48

37. A pious Muslim, al-Sisi and Morsi got on well together at first. 49 The

military and Morsi maintained a symbiotic relationship as the mutual

feeling was that each needed the other; the informal covenant being that

the military required the president’s support to maintain its strength and

standing in Egyptian society and in return it would support the

government and refrain from interfering in politics. 50

38. The 21 November decree, as well as other divisive decisions contradicted

Morsi’s promise of democratic and inclusive government and steered

Egypt onto what many feared was a ‘dangerous’ path.

39. Accordingly, Morsi’s plan to hope to persuade al-Sisi, who held the trust

and respect of the majority of Egyptian people (including non-Muslims

and moderates), 51 to continue supporting his and the Muslim

Brotherhood’s agenda, became strained.

48 Aboulenein, A., “Morsy assumes power: Sacks Tantawi and Anan, reverses constitutional

decree and reshuffles SCAF”, Daily News Egypt, 12 August 2012. Accessed at

http://www.dailynewsegypt.com/2012/08/12/morsy-assumes-power-sacks-tantawi-and-anan-

reverses-constitutional-decree-and-reshuffles-scaf/. 49 Kirkpatrick, D., El Sheikh, M., “Morsi Spurned Deals, Seeing Military as Tamed” New York

Times, 6 July 2013. 50 Kirkpatrick, D., El Sheikh, M., “Morsi Spurned Deals, Seeing Military as Tamed” New York

Times, 6 July 2013. 51 El Gundy, Z., “Meet General El-Sisi, Egypt's defence minister” Ahram Online, 13 Aug 2012.

Report 3: The Egyptian Revolution

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40. Tensions between the army and the government had already started to

brew after the first few months of Morsi’s presidency. 52 Although there

was no question of replacing Morsi, the army was coming under

increasing pressure from all sides, including political parties and the civil

service. 53

41. In spite of this, al-Sisi and his senior officers resisted pressure from the

more rebellious factions in the Interior Ministry who openly expressed

their distrust of the Muslim Brotherhood government. 54 There was also a

growing security issue with larger, more frequent and increasingly violent

riots against the Muslim Brotherhood government’s self-serving policies

and decisions which, in turn, triggered counter-riots from Muslim

Brotherhood supporters (including other Islamist militant groups), often

with deadly consequences. This is illustrated in detail in Chapter 3 of this

report. See also Report 2.55

52 Alsharif, A., and Saleh, Y., “Special Report: The real force behind Egypt's 'revolution of the

state'”, Reuters, 10 October 2013. See also generally “The Egyptian Experience of the Muslim

Brotherhood in Power 2012 – 2013”, 9 Bedford Row, 3 June 2015. For further information see,

“Former top court judge challenges Egypt's new constitution”, CBC News, 8 January 2013.;

El-Rashidi, Y., “Egypt: Whose Constitution?”, The New York Review of Books, 3 January

2013.; Essam El-Din, G., “Egypt PM Qandil makes some surprise, controversial ministerial

choices”, Ahram Online, 3 August 2012.; Nordland, R. and El-Sheikh, M., “Egyptian

President Names Minister in Interim Cabinet as Premier”, The New York Times, 24 July

2012.; “The Brothers of the Cabinet”, Egypt Independent, 10 August 2012.; 53 Alsharif, A., and Saleh, Y., “Special Report: The real force behind Egypt's 'revolution of the

state'”, Reuters, 10 October 2013. See also, Kirkpatrick, D., El Sheikh, M., “Morsi Spurned

Deals, Seeing Military as Tamed” New York Times, 6 July 2013. 54 Alsharif, A., and Saleh, Y., “Special Report: The real force behind Egypt's 'revolution of the

state'”, Reuters, 10 October 2013. 55 “The Egyptian Experience of the Muslim Brotherhood in Power 2012 – 2013”, 9 Bedford

Row, 3 June 2015.

Report 3: The Egyptian Revolution

Against the Muslim Brotherhood

23

42. Public sources reveal that throughout the riots leading up to and following

the 2012 constitutional referendum, the army continued to protect the

president’s safety from the swarming protestors.56 On 5 December 2012,

the angry crowds had swelled and the police were forced to erect

barricades around the president’s offices.57 On 9 December 2012, when

thousands more joined the protests calling for Morsi’s resignation, the

Republican Guard deployed four tanks to ensure the protection of the

president. 58 It is clear that the army showed continued deference and

support to Morsi, even after his actions had begun to resemble that of the

authoritarian government before him.

43. Although al-Sisi continued to support Morsi and his Muslim Brotherhood

government, he was not blind to the dangers apparent from the direction

the country was being taken under Muslim Brotherhood rule (see sections

2.3.2 and 2.3.3 below).

44. As early as December 2012, al-Sisi confronted Morsi and expressed his

concern about specific government decisions and, on one particular

instance, vocally opposed a proposed government plan (reportedly

directly channelled from the General Guide of the Muslim Brotherhood) to

sell land in Sinai to Palestinian and Qatari ‘investors’ for what was

56 Stacher, J., “Morsi’s Guns: The Officers Backing Egypt’s President” Foreign Affairs, 4

February 2013. 57 Hessler, P., “Big Brothers: Where is the Muslim Brotherhood leading Egypt?”, The New

Yorker, 14 January 2013. 58 “Egypt Army Deploys Tanks To Protect Morsi’s Palace” The Jerusalem Post, 6 December

2012.

Report 3: The Egyptian Revolution

Against the Muslim Brotherhood

24

claimed to be “for tourist purposes”. 59 The concern was that this was a

Muslim Brotherhood ploy to covertly fund affiliated terrorist groups (see

Report 1).60 What precisely happened as a result of al-Sisi’s intervention is

unclear.

45. The Muslim Brotherhood ignored all dissent and criticism.61 Instead, it got

bolder in its attempts to consolidate power and was not averse to using

violence to achieve this. This is illustrated in detail in Chapters 3, 4 and 5

of this report (see also Report 1 for an illustration of the Muslim

Brotherhood’s history of violence and Report 2 where it used violence to

keep and consolidate power).6263

46. In one incident, government ministers in a meeting with Morsi –

seemingly unaware that they were on live television - suggested

sabotaging an Ethiopian project to build a dam on the Nile by arming

Ethiopian rebels, launching a campaign to boast of Egypt’s military might

and “finishing the job” with Egyptian fighter jets.64 Morsi refrained from

59 Ezzat, D., “Egypt: The president, the army and the police”, Ahram Online, 27 December

2012. 60 “The History of the Muslim Brotherhood”, 9 Bedford Row, 2 April 2015. 61 Hope, B., “Egypt faces descent into chaos as Morsi defies military ultimatum”, The

National - Abu Dhabi (English version), 3 July 2013; Kirkpatrick, D., and El Sheikh, M.,

“Morsi Spurned Deals, Seeing Military as Tamed” New York Times, 6 July 2013. 62 “The History of the Muslim Brotherhood”, 9 Bedford Row, 2 April 2015. 63 “The Egyptian Experience of the Muslim Brotherhood in Power 2012 – 2013”, 9 Bedford

Row, 3 June 2015. 64 “Egypt frets, fumes over Ethiopia’s Nile plan”, The Washington Post, 12 June 2013.

Report 3: The Egyptian Revolution

Against the Muslim Brotherhood

25

giving them explicit support but did not reject the proposal and later

declared that “all options are open.”65

47. It was to be Morsi’s strategy to tacitly accept the decisions made by the

Muslim Brotherhood leadership while being cautious not to directly

endorse them in public. One striking example of this (other examples are

discussed in Report 2)66 was during a pro-Syrian rebel rally on 17 June

2013 at which conservative Sunni clerics and high-ranking members of the

Muslim Brotherhood were present. 67 The Islamist speakers repeatedly

called for jihad in Syria.

48. This was seen by some as an attempt by Morsi to gain western favour to

help counter simmering social anger and discontent at home by ‘joining’

the international community in the fight against the Assad regime. It was

also seen as an implicit push by Sunni extremists for sectarian violence

against Shiites and Alawites. Although Morsi himself did not call for

violence, he failed to distance himself from other ultraconservative

Salafists speakers at the rally, including one who referred to Shiites as

infidels. Instead, he asserted that the Egyptian “nation, leadership and

army will not abandon the Syrian people.” 68

65 “Egypt frets, fumes over Ethiopia’s Nile plan”, The Washington Post, 12 June 2013. 66 “The Egyptian Experience of the Muslim Brotherhood in Power 2012 – 2013”, 9 Bedford

Row, 3 June 2015. 67 “Morsi 1st president to declare war in a football stadium': Egypt's revolutionary sheikh”,

Ahram Online,17 June 2013. 68 “Morsi 1st president to declare war in a football stadium': Egypt's revolutionary sheikh”,

Ahram Online,17 June 2013.

Report 3: The Egyptian Revolution

Against the Muslim Brotherhood

26

49. Through its support of the ‘Syrian people’, the Muslim Brotherhood (with

Morsi’s support or acquiescence) armed and funded Islamic terrorist

groups such as al-Qaeda in Syria under the guise of supporting the

international coalition against the Assad regime - actions that would also,

in part, give rise to the birth of the new Islamic State terrorist group69 (for

more on the links between the Muslim Brotherhood and other Islamic

militant groups such as al-Qaeda and Islamic State see Report 1).70

50. These, and other decisions (see Report 2 on the Ihkwanization of the

Egyptian government),71 raised concerns among the Interior Ministry and

the non-Islamist political parties. 72 The pressure on the government, of

which al-Sisi was a part, became even more intense in the course of

continued and growing mass-protests against Morsi and the Muslim

Brotherhood.

69 “Morsi role at Syria rally seen as tipping point for Egypt army”, The Irish Times, 4 July

2013. See also, International Crisis Group, “Marching in Circles: Egypt’s Dangerous Second

Transition”, Policy Briefing – Middle East/North Africa Briefing No. 35, 7 August 2013.;

Mohsen, M., “Egypt to aid Syrian rebels”, Daily News Egypt, 15 June 2013 accessed at

http://www.dailynewsegypt.com/2013/06/15/egypt-to-aid-syrian-rebels/;

“ 'Morsi 1st president to declare war in a football stadium': Egypt's revolutionary sheikh”,

Ahram Online, 17 June 2013. 70 “The History of the Muslim Brotherhood”, 9 Bedford Row, 2 April 2015. 71 “The Egyptian Experience of the Muslim Brotherhood in Power 2012 – 2013”, 9 Bedford

Row, 3 June 2015. 72 Alsharif, A., and Saleh, Y., “Special Report: The real force behind Egypt's 'revolution of the

state'”, Reuters, 10 October 2013. See also generally “The Egyptian Experience of the Muslim

Brotherhood in Power 2012 – 2013”, 9 Bedford Row, 3 June 2015. For further information see,

“Former top court judge challenges Egypt's new constitution”, CBC News, 8 January 2013.;

El-Rashidi, Y., “Egypt: Whose Constitution?”, The New York Review of Books, 3 January

2013.; Essam El-Din, G., “Egypt PM Qandil makes some surprise, controversial ministerial

choices”, Ahram Online, 3 August 2012.; Nordland, R. and El-Sheikh, M., “Egyptian

President Names Minister in Interim Cabinet as Premier”, The New York Times, 24 July

2012.; “The Brothers of the Cabinet”, Egypt Independent, 10 August 2012.

Report 3: The Egyptian Revolution

Against the Muslim Brotherhood

27

51. Concerned about the rising tide of public anger and growing unrest, Al-

Sisi had, months earlier, warned Morsi that to survive and ward off

further popular protests the government needed to be more inclusive and

engage with other political parties.73 This advice was not heeded by the

Muslim Brotherhood as it was intent on consolidating power and

embarking on a full-scale Islamification of the country. 74 As a result, Morsi

became increasingly unpopular and the mass protests continued to grow.

52. Intent on giving the government another opportunity to fulfill its

democratic mandate, al-Sisi, as the Defense Minister, remained reluctant

to intervene and involve the army in government affairs.75

53. By June 2013 however, the febrile atmosphere had reached boiling point

and the country was close to descending into chaos.

2.3.2 Pressure grows on army to support demands of Egyptian people

54. At the now-infamous rally at Cairo Stadium on 17 June 2013 (mentioned

in paragraph 47 above), attended by Morsi, the Muslim Brotherhood’s

Sheikh Mohamed Abdel-Maqsoud, a conservative hardliner, described

73 Arabiya, A., “Is the Clock Ticking for Mursi? Opposition Sets Deadline for his Ouster” Al

Arabiya News, 1 July 2013. 74 Arabiya, A., “Is the Clock Ticking for Mursi? Opposition Sets Deadline for his Ouster” Al

Arabiya News, 1 July 2013. 75 Alsharif, A., and Saleh, Y., “Special Report: The real force behind Egypt's 'revolution of the

state'”, Reuters, 10 October 2013.

Report 3: The Egyptian Revolution

Against the Muslim Brotherhood

28

those planning to take part in anti-Morsi rallies on 30 June 2013 as infidels

(see Report 276).77

55. The anti-government Tamarod campaign launched in May 2013 (discussed

in Report 2)78 was gaining momentum and with Morsi’s continued defiant

stance toward protestors, tens of thousands of anti-Muslim Brotherhood

protestors joined them on the streets demanding he resign and that new

elections be called.79

56. In response, Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood called upon Islamist

supporters to launch counter-demonstrations with a view to disrupting

the anti-Morsi crowds and depict Morsi as a peacemaker and unfair target,

rather than the cause of the problem.

57. On 21 June 2013, tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands of Muslim

Brotherhood supporters organised a demonstration in central Cairo,

demonstrating in support for the president.80

76 “The Egyptian Experience of the Muslim Brotherhood in Power 2012 – 2013”, 9 Bedford

Row, 3 June 2015. 77 “Morsi 1st president to declare war in a football stadium': Egypt's revolutionary sheikh”,

Ahram Online,17 June 2013. 78 “The Egyptian Experience of the Muslim Brotherhood in Power 2012 – 2013”, 9 Bedford

Row, 3 June 2015. 79 “The Egyptian Experience of the Muslim Brotherhood in Power 2012 – 2013”, 9 Bedford

Row, 3 June 2015. 80 “Live Update, part 2: Hundreds of thousands at pro-Morsi rally in Cairo; 2 dead in

Alexandria clashes”, Ahram Online, 28 June. See also "Egypt Islamists warn opponents with

huge pro-Mursi rally”, Reuters, 21 June 2012. See also, “Updated: Egypt’s Islamist rally to

support President Morsi”, Ahram Online, 21 June 2013.

Report 3: The Egyptian Revolution

Against the Muslim Brotherhood

29

2.3.3 Tipping point

58. In contrast to the anti-Morsi protestors, which were predominantly non-

violent,81 the Muslim Brotherhood once again showed its propensity for

violence to achieve its aims by arming themselves with home-made bombs

and steel batons.82 As illustrated in Report 1,83 violence has characterised

the group’s activities and core philosophy since its formative years in the

early 1930s.

59. Amidst the growing tide of civil unrest, on 23 June 2013 al-Sisi warned

Morsi that the army was prepared to act decisively to prevent chaos and

further bloodshed as fears rose that mass protests against Morsi planned

for 30 June could ignite fresh violence between his Islamists supporters

and the protestors.84 Once again, Morsi refused to listen. Al-Sisi was firm

in his rebuke, warning Morsi, that the army would, if necessary,

“prevent Egypt from slipping into a dark tunnel of civil unrest

and killing, sectarianism and the collapse of state institutions.”85

81 Engler, M., and Engler, P., “Did nonviolence fail in Egypt?”, Waging Nonviolence, 21

February 2014. See also Chapter 3 of this report and Report 2 of this series at “The Egyptian

Experience of the Muslim Brotherhood in Power 2012 – 2013”, 9 Bedford Row, 3 June 2015. 82 “Deadly Violence Breaks out in Egypt Ahead of June 30 Protests” AL Monitor, 29 June 2013. 83 “The History of the Muslim Brotherhood”, 9 Bedford Row, 2 April 2015. 84 Hubbard, B., and El Sheikh, M., “Egyptian General Warns Against Violence as Anniversary

Approaches”, The New York Times, 23 June 2013. 85 Abdelaziz, S., Sayah, R., and Wedeman, B., “Egypt's military gives Morsy ultimatum”,

CNN, 2 July 2013.

Report 3: The Egyptian Revolution

Against the Muslim Brotherhood

30

60. On 26 June 2013, Morsi delivered a two-and-half hour speech to the

nation. 86 It was expected to be a reconciliatory speech but was widely

viewed as provocative and full of threats and accusations targeted against

opponents of the Muslim Brotherhood, including media presenters as well

as prominent individuals such as Ahmed Shafik, his former rival in the

2012 Egyptian presidential elections. 87 One reporter directly noted the

tone of Morsi’s speech as that of an “authoritarian ruler”,

“Morsi reminded his audience several times that he is indeed

the President of Egypt and Supreme Commander of the Armed

Forces. Was this a subtle threat?”88

61. Morsi further presented dubious statistics in an effort to obfuscate the

reality of his government’s mismanagement of the economy.89

62. Following his speech, anti-Morsi protestors vowed that they were now

even more determined to take to the streets on the planned 30 June 2013

uprising against the president. 90 It was a clear message from the Egyptian

people that Morsi and his Muslim Brotherhood government had

irretrievably lost their trust.

86 Excerpts from Egyptian President Morsi Wednesday 26 June Speech, Ikhwanweb, 28 June

2013. See also “Ahram Online breaks down playbook for 30 June anti-Morsi Protests”, Ahram

Online, 29 June 2013, 87 El-Shazli, H.F., “Should Egyptians Believe Morsi?”, Jadaliyya, 28 June 2013. 88 El-Shazli, H.F., “Should Egyptians Believe Morsi?”, Jadaliyya, 28 June 2013. 89 El-Shazli, H.F., “Should Egyptians Believe Morsi?”, Jadaliyya, 28 June 2013. 90 “Egypt: opposition even more determined after Morsi speech”, Ansa, 27 June 2013.

Report 3: The Egyptian Revolution

Against the Muslim Brotherhood

31

63. On 28 June 2013, tensions mounted and violence escalated. Several

individuals were killed during clashes between pro- and anti-Morsi

protesters in the city of Alexandria, including 21-year-old Andrew

Pochter, an American student who was reportedly stabbed to death as he

observed the demonstrations. 91

64. The following day, thousands of Egyptians converged on Tahrir Square in

Cairo to demonstrate against Morsi, demanding his resignation. 92 That

same day, violent clashes continued to erupt in Alexandria, Cairo and Port

Said between Muslim Brotherhood supporters and anti-government

protestors leaving several targeted protestors (including prominent

journalists)93 dead and many more seriously injured. 94 The deliberately

lethal nature of the attacks against protestors was illustrated by reports

alleging that homemade bombs (suggesting a significant degree of

planning) were hurled against crowds of protestors resulting in many

civilian casualties. 95

91 Abdelaziz, S., Sayah, R., and Wedeman, B., “Egypt's military gives Morsy ultimatum”,

CNN, 2 July 2013. 92 Hendawi, J. (via The Associated Press, Alastair Macdonald) "Egypt protests: Thousands

gather at Tahrir Square to demand Morsi’s ouster". The Star (Toronto), 30 June 2013; "Egypt:

BBC inside Tahrir Square amid demonstration". BBC News, 30 June 2013.; "Tahrir Square

protesters show President Mursi the 'red card'", Al Arabiya, 30 June 2013. 93 Sabry, M., “Deadly Violence Breaks out in Egypt Ahead of June 30 Protests”, Al Monitor, 29

June 2013. 94 Sabry, M., “Deadly Violence Breaks out in Egypt Ahead of June 30 Protests”, Al Monitor, 29

June 2013. 95 Sabry, M., “Deadly Violence Breaks out in Egypt Ahead of June 30 Protests”, Al Monitor, 29

June 2013.

Report 3: The Egyptian Revolution

Against the Muslim Brotherhood

32

65. As a result of the loss of confidence in Morsi and his government, nine

members of the parliament’s upper house resigned;96 among them, Nadia

Henry, who spoke at a press conference held by the Tamarod initiative,

where it was announced that the number of anti-Morsi signatories reached

22 million. 97 Henry read a collective statement from those members of the

upper house who resigned, stating,

“Today we join the national will and declare our mass

resignation.” 98

66. Meanwhile, dozens of opposition tents were erected around the

presidential palace. Posters carrying the now-common phrase “come

down in protest” were stuck on tents and handed out to cars driving by

the sit-in. Insults, political slogans and anti-Morsi graffiti were spray-

painted on the massive cement barricade built around the presidential

palace but violent attacks on pro-government supporters were rare. 99

What was clear was the degree of widespread anger against Morsi and the

Muslim Brotherhood government.

96 “Shura Council members resign”, Daily News Egypt, 30 June 2013 accessed at

http://www.dailynewsegypt.com/2013/06/30/shura-council-members-resign/ 97 Sabry, M., “Deadly Violence Breaks out in Egypt Ahead of June 30 Protests”, Al Monitor, 29

June 2013. See also, “Shura Council members resign”, Daily News Egypt, 30 June 2013

accessed at http://www.dailynewsegypt.com/2013/06/30/shura-council-members-resign/ 98 Sabry, M., “Deadly Violence Breaks out in Egypt Ahead of June 30 Protests”, Al Monitor, 29

June 2013. 99 Sabry, M., “Deadly Violence Breaks out in Egypt Ahead of June 30 Protests”, Al Monitor, 29

June 2013. See also, Hendawi, J. (via The Associated Press, Alastair Macdonald) "Egypt

protests: Thousands gather at Tahrir Square to demand Morsi’s ouster". The Star (Toronto),

30 June 2013; "Egypt: BBC inside Tahrir Square amid demonstration". BBC News, 30 June

2013.; "Tahrir Square protesters show President Mursi the 'red card'", Al Arabiya, 30 June

2013.

Report 3: The Egyptian Revolution

Against the Muslim Brotherhood

33

67. Hamdi Hamza, a 70-year-old former government employee, captured this

sentiment. He stated,

“[Morsi is] a killer… he must and will leave […] [t]he Muslim

Brotherhood and Morsi proved to be a disaster to what is left in

Egypt, they occupied the country and instead of rescuing it; they

destroyed it further. The only reason he is in power is that we chose

him over Ahmed Shafiq, Hosni Mubarak’s alter ego […] [w]e now

regret it and we will topple him.”100

68. At the same time, just a few miles away, the Muslim Brotherhood led

several Islamist parties and movements in pro-Morsi demonstrations and

mass sit-ins. In stark contrast to the anti-Morsi protestors, they wore

helmets and were armed with wooden and metal batons and homemade

metal shields with some carrying homemade bombs,101 which, one can

surmise, are items not generally employed for peaceful protests. The pro-

Morsi protesters were there to fight.

2.3.4 The government rebuked al-Sisi’s attempts for proper dialogue among

all political parties

100 Sabry, M., “Deadly Violence Breaks out in Egypt Ahead of June 30 Protests”, Al Monitor,

29 June 2013. 101 “Deadly Violence Breaks out in Egypt Ahead of June 30 Protests” AL Monitor, 29 June

2013.

Report 3: The Egyptian Revolution

Against the Muslim Brotherhood

34

69. In anticipation of violent confrontations and attacks on government

facilities, Egypt’s military and its police and health departments started

deploying troops, armoured vehicles and ambulance units in and around

protest sites.102 This further demonstrated that, even at this point, the army

was fulfilling its duty to protect the president.

70. By 30 June 2013, thousands of protestors surrounded the presidential

palace 103 and a few days later sieged the Muslim Brotherhood

headquarters.104 Demonstrations were reported to be in progress in 18

locations across Cairo and in other different locations across the country.

With tens of millions on the streets the country was brought to a standstill.

Egypt was in chaos. 105

71. Still al-Sisi, who at this point was seen as the only viable peace broker

between the government and the protestors due to the respect he and the

army commanded from within both camps, refused to give up trying to

find a peaceful solution and allow the government to continue.

72. Al-Sisi had spent much of 31 June locked in meetings with his key

generals and with senior religious and opposition figures, including the

opposition leader Mohamed el-Baradei, the country's leading Sunni cleric,

102 "Tahrir Square protesters show President Mursi the 'red card'", Al Arabiya, 30 June 2013. 103 "BBC in Egypt: 'People were not expecting this'", BBC News, 30 June 2013. 104 "Egypt protesters storm Muslim Brotherhood headquarters", BBC News, 1 July 2013. 105 Alsharif, A., "Millions flood Egypt's streets to demand Mursi quit", Reuters, 30 June 2013.

Report 3: The Egyptian Revolution

Against the Muslim Brotherhood

35

Sheikh Ahmed Tayeb, and the Coptic pope, Tawadros II. 106 He did not

meet Morsi, but had spent four hours with him the day before discussing a

power-sharing plan.107 Morsi however was not interested in consensus. 108

73. With the country at the brink of a civil war, a coalition comprised of a

broad and representative group of political and social leaders directed al-

Sisi, during a meeting with Morsi the following day on 1 July 2013, to

present to the president a 48-hour ultimatum: resolve the crisis or resign

and if you refuse the army would step in to quell the increasingly violent

protests. If the president forced the army’s hand in doing so, the coalition,

with the cooperation and support of the army, would proceed to answer

the call of the Egyptian people by formulating a political ‘road-map’

which would put in place arrangements for new elections to be held as

soon as possible. 109 The message was simple - Morsi had 48 hours to

earnestly and effectively address the peoples’ concerns, or the Egyptian

people would remove him from office.

74. The coalition and roadmap is discussed further in Chapter 3.

106 Kingsley, P., and Chulov, M., “Mohamed Morsi ousted in Egypt's second revolution in

two years”, The Guardian, 4 July 2013. 107 Kingsley, P., and Chulov, M., “Mohamed Morsi ousted in Egypt's second revolution in

two years”, The Guardian, 4 July 2013. 108 Kingsley, P., and Chulov, M., “Mohamed Morsi ousted in Egypt's second revolution in

two years”, The Guardian, 4 July 2013. 109 Carlstrom, G., “Egypt’s President Refuses to Step Down” Aljazeera, 3 July 2013. See also,

Fisher, M. “Here’s the Egyptian military’s full statement warning it may act in 48 hours”, The

Washington Post, 1 July 2013; Egypt protests: army issues 48-hour ultimatum - as it

happened, The Guardian, 1 July 2013.

Report 3: The Egyptian Revolution

Against the Muslim Brotherhood

36

75. Predictably, Morsi alluded to proposals of improved ‘national dialogue’

but failed to offer any concrete concessions.110 Indeed, the president’s aides

later reported Morsi warning “this before that”, pointing to his neck;

vowing to die before stepping down.111

2.4 The end of the Muslim Brotherhood government

2.4.1 Former close allies of Morsi now supported army intervention

76. Morsi’s government was now on the brink of collapse as his own cabinet

began to turn on him. Following the earlier resignations of members of the

upper house of parliament (Shura), over the next 24 hours six ministers

had resigned, including his military adviser, Sami Enan, who had until

then remained loyal to Morsi.112 Upon his resignation, Enan stated that the

army “would not abandon the will of the people.”113

77. By 2 July 2013 it was clear that Muslim Brotherhood’s time in power was

up.114 Its self-serving policies and actions while in power had been an

unmitigated disaster for Egypt. Economic growth had halved during

Morsi’s presidency115 and over 25% of the population was living below the

110 Carlstrom, G., “Egypt’s President Refuses to Step Down” Al Jazeera, 3 July 2013. 111 Kirkpatrick, D., and El Sheikh, M., “Morsi Spurned Deals, Seeing Military as Tamed” New

York Times, 6 July 2013. 112 "Morsi tells Egypt army to withdraw ultimatum – Middle East", Al Jazeera, 14 August

2013. 113 Carlstrom, G., “Egypt’s President Refuses to Step Down” Aljazeera, 3 July 2013. 114 "FM becomes fifth cabinet official to resign", Egypt Independent, 2 July 2013. 115 Halime, F., “A Year In Office: Morsi’s Economic Mistakes” Rebel Economy, 30 June 2013.

Report 3: The Egyptian Revolution

Against the Muslim Brotherhood

37

poverty line (see Report 2 for more detail on the impact of the Muslim

Brotherhood rule on Egypt).116 Friedman confirmed this,

“It is difficult to exaggerate how much the economy and law

and order had deteriorated under President Morsi. So many

Egyptians were feeling insecure that there was a run on police

dogs! So many tour guides were out of work that tourists were

warned to avoid the Pyramids because desperate camel drivers

and postcard-sellers would swarm them.”

78. Quoting a poll by the Egyptian Center for Public Opinion Research, it was

found that “71 percent of Egyptians were unsympathetic with pro-Morsi

protests.”117

79. Morsi’s incompetent and increasingly autocratic rule disaffected many of

his supporters amongst Egypt's poor and middle classes, said Fawaz

Gerges, director of the Middle East Center at the London School of

Economics.

116 “The Egyptian Experience of the Muslim Brotherhood in Power 2012 – 2013”, 9 Bedford

Row, 3 June 2015.; Farid, D., “Egypt’s Economy Over Three Years of Turmoil” Daily News

Egypt, 20 September 2014. See also, Saleh, H., "Egypt’s power crisis worsened by declining

natural gas production", FT.com, 29 May 2013; Kirkpatrick, D., "Short of Money, Egypt Sees

Crisis on Fuel and Food", New York Times, 30 March 2013;

"Diesel fuel crisis adds to Egypt's cocktail of political, economic woes", Fox News, 11 March

2013. 117 Friedman, T. L., “Egypt’s Three Revolutions”, The New York Times, 23 July 2013.

Report 3: The Egyptian Revolution

Against the Muslim Brotherhood

38

“’That some of the revolutionaries are calling on the army to

return to politics is a testament to how polarized Egypt is a year

after the election of [Morsi],’ Gerges said. ‘Think of the millions

of people who cheered [Morsi] after his election. Think of the

millions of Egyptians who pinned their hopes on [him]. A year

later, now, the millions of Egyptians who cheered for [Morsi]

are saying he must go.’”118

80. The end had come for Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood. Furious

protestors filled the streets, and over 22 million people had signed the

Tamarod’s petition demanding Morsi’s resignation. 119

81. While reiterating his personal desire to keep the military out of politics, al-

Sisi was finally compelled to accept that the army had a responsibility to

respond to the wishes of the Egyptian and take action to quell the

escalating violence.120 The alternative (i.e. the army doing nothing) would

undoubtedly have resulted in the country descending into a violent and

chaotic civil war that would have brought with it a much higher civilian

death toll.121

118 Abdelaziz, S., Sayah, R., and Wedeman, B., “Egypt's military gives Morsy ultimatum”,

CNN, 2 July 2013. 119 "Tahrir Square protesters show President Mursi the 'red card'", Al Arabiya, 30 June 2013. 120 Mardell, M., “Egypt crisis: Army ousts President Mohammed Morsi” BBC News, 4 July

2013. 121 Weymouth, L., “Rare interview with Egyptian Gen. Abdel Fatah al-Sissi” The Washington

Post, 3 August 2013.

Report 3: The Egyptian Revolution

Against the Muslim Brotherhood

39

2.5 Agreement to remove Morsi involved a broad and representative

coalition – army did not act unilaterally

82. As mentioned earlier in this chapter and discussed in more detail in

Chapter 3 of this report, the army’s participation in Morsi’s eventual

removal and arrest was part of a wider coalition comprising leading

figures and representatives from across the political, social and religious

spectrum. 122

83. In a televised speech on 3 July 2013,123 al-Sisi announced that the armed

forces could not stay silent and blind to the call of the Egyptian masses.

84. He spoke of a new roadmap for the future, and said that the chief justice of

the Supreme Constitutional Court, Adly Mansour, would be given the

task of “running the country's affairs during the transitional period until

the election of a new president.”124

85. Al-Sisi spoke of his “historic responsibility” in front of a panel of

Egyptians representing what was intended to be “a full spectrum of

Egyptian life” and which formed the core of the coalition that had agreed

122 Kingsley, P., and Chulov, M., “Mohamed Morsi ousted in Egypt's second revolution in two

years”, The Guardian, 4 July 2013. ; Fisher, M. “Here’s the Egyptian military’s full statement

warning it may act in 48 hours”, The Washington Post, 1 July 2013; Egypt protests: army

issues 48-hour ultimatum - as it happened, The Guardian, 1 July 2013. 123 Mardell, M., “Egypt crisis: Army ousts President Mohammed Morsi” BBC News, 4 July

2013. 124 Mardell, M., “Egypt crisis: Army ousts President Mohammed Morsi” BBC News, 4 July

2013.

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on the plan of action with the army. Key members included the Coptic

pope, the country's most senior Muslim cleric, and leading secular

politician Mohamed el-Baradei. 125

86. Following al-Sisi's address, both Pope Tawadros II - the head of the Coptic

Church - and leading opposition figure Mohammed el-Baradei, made

short televised speeches about the new roadmap for Egypt's future that

they had agreed with the army. El-Baradei said the roadmap aimed for

“national reconciliation” and represented a fresh start to the January 2011

revolution. 126 Pope Tawadros II added that the roadmap has been drafted

“by…[those]…who seek the interests, first and foremost, of the

country.”127 Opposition leader and former head of the Arab League, Amr

Moussa, expressed similar agreement and optimism, promising that

consultations for a government and reconciliation “will start from now.”128

87. As mentioned previously, the key features of the roadmap are set out in

Chapter 3 below.

88. Al-Sisi justified the army’s involvement in that Morsi had lost his

legitimacy as president as a result of his failure and unwillingness to

125 Kingsley, P., and Chulov, M., “Mohamed Morsi ousted in Egypt's second revolution in two

years”, The Guardian, 4 July 2013. 126 Mardell, M., “Egypt crisis: Army ousts President Mohammed Morsi” BBC News, 4 July

2013. 127 Mardell, M., “Egypt crisis: Army ousts President Mohammed Morsi” BBC News, 4 July

2013. 128 Mardell, M., “Egypt crisis: Army ousts President Mohammed Morsi” BBC News, 4 July

2013.

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address the concerns of the Egyptian people and work with opposition

parties.129 It suspended the constitution and appointed Adly Mansour as

Egypt’s interim president.130 The plan at this stage was simple and had

unanimous support from all members of the coalition - to avoid further

bloodshed and maintain peace and calm until elections could be held and

a new, democratically elected president chosen (see Chapter 3).

89. Al-Sisi’s decision to involve the army in the eleventh hour was widely

supported both domestically and internationally. US Secretary of State

John Kerry supported the army’s action, stating that Egypt’s army was

“restoring democracy.” He stated during a visit to Pakistan,

“The military did not take over… The military was asked to

intervene by millions and millions of people.”131

90. Former Egyptian presidential candidate Hamdeen Sabbahi, supported the

view that al-Sisi remained loyal to Morsi as long as he could, so much so

that he was even considered part of the Morsi regime. 132 He stated in an

interview,

129 “Egyptian army chief explains decision to oust Morsi” The National, 15 July 2013. 130 Mardell, M., “Egypt crisis: Army ousts President Mohammed Morsi” BBC News, 4 July

2013. 131 Weymouth, L., “Rare interview with Egyptian Gen. Abdel Fatah al-Sissi” The Washington

Post, 3 August 2013. 132 “Egypt's Sabbahi says Sisi 'was once part of Morsi regime”, Middle East Eye, 9 May 2014.

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“Al-Sisi was part of Morsi’s regime and saluted him (as the

defense minister), while I was saying: ‘Down with Morsi’s

legitimacy!’” 133

91. Sabbahi went on to say that the army was not responsible for ousting

Morsi.

“The army cannot move without the people’s order… The

people moved on June 30, and then the army moved afterwards

on July 3.”134

2.6 Closing Remarks

92. This chapter has looked at the circumstances that led to the end of the

Muslim Brotherhood’s brief period in power and the popular movement

that resulted in Morsi’s removal as president. The consequences of his rule

for Egypt were devastating and have been discussed in previous reports.

93. The next chapter traces the specific actions that followed on the 3 July 2013

when Morsi was removed from power and the events that followed.

133 “Egypt's Sabbahi says Sisi 'was once part of Morsi regime”, Middle East Eye, 9 May 2014. 134 “Egypt's Sabbahi says Sisi 'was once part of Morsi regime”, Middle East Eye, 9 May 2014.

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CHAPTER 3

The Revolution

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3.1 3 July 2013

3.1.1 Introduction

94. Following what was described as the biggest demonstration in the history

of Egypt on 30 June 2013,135 the Tamarod (Rebellion) movement insisted

they would remain in the street until Morsi stepped down. Tamarod

issued a statement on 1 July 2013 giving Morsi until 5 pm on 2 July 2013 to

leave and pave the way for early presidential elections or else it would

bring the crowds back out, march on more palaces and launch “complete

civil disobedience”.136 Tamarod warned that the protests could drag the

country into civil war and called on the military and the police to clearly

state their support for the protesters.137

95. Later on 1 July 2013, on state television, Defence Minister and head of the

army, Lieutenant-General Abdel Fattah al-Sisi issued a statement, which

set out three important points.

96. First, the statement indicated that the army perceived the deeply divided

nation as a threat to national security, and any intervention would be as a

matter of duty to the nation. Echoing his speech of 23 June 2013 where al-

Sisi had stated that the army would not allow Egypt to enter a “dark 135 Abdelhadi, M., “In Egypt, all eyes are on the army”, The Guardian, 3 July 2013. 136 “ElBaradei authorized as spokesman for Egypt’s anti-Morsi 30 June Front”, Ahram Online,

2 July 2013. 137 “Egypt protests: army issues 48-hour ultimatum - as it happened”, The Guardian, 1 July

2013. See also “Is the clock ticking for Mursi? Opposition sets deadline for his ouster”, Al

Arabiya News, 1 July 2013.

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tunnel of conflict” and had called on all political factions to reach

consensus,138 al-Sisi said that,

“National security is under threat following the latest

developments.”

97. Second, the statement indicated that the army recognized the mass

protests and petition as the expression of popular democracy, in a system

where there was no effective mechanism to impeach and remove a

president.

98. Al-Sisi supported the “unprecedented” expression of “the will of the

people”, which Morsi had recognised as, “the source of power and

legitimacy” following his election to president a year earlier. 139 He

emphasized that,

“the armed forces will not … go against the democratic thoughts

that emanate from the people of Egypt of their own free will”

and that, “the armed forces feels obligated to embrace the will of

the people.”140

138 Kingsley, P., “Egypt's army to step in if anti-Morsi rallies become violent”, The Guardian,

23 June 2013. 139 “President Morsi’s Speech in Tahrir Square, 29 June 2012”, Ikwanweb, 30 June 2012. See

also “Egypt’s President-elect Mohamed Mursi hails Tahrir crowds” BBC, 29 June 2012. 140 Fisher, M. “Here’s the Egyptian military’s full statement warning it may act in 48 hours”,

The Washington Post, 1 July 2013; "Egypt protests: army issues 48-hour ultimatum - as it

happened", The Guardian, 1 July 2013.

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99. External support for this view comes from U.S. President Obama, who

stressed in a call to Morsi on 1 July 2013 that,

“democracy is about more than elections; it is also about

ensuring that the voices of all Egyptians are heard and

represented by their government, including the many Egyptians

demonstrating throughout the country.”141

100. Third, al-Sisi’s statement emphasized that any decisions would be

taken by a coalition of social and political forces, collaborating in the name

of the will of the people. Al-Sisi said “the armed forces will not be a party

in politics” and that a proposed roadmap for the future, “if the demands

of the people are not realized” within 48 hours, would be overseen,

“in collaboration with all the loyal national factions and

movements, including the youth who were and remain the

spark of the glorious revolution. No one would be ignored.”142

101. Indeed, invitations to the Muslim Brotherhood’s Freedom and Justice

Party to attend meetings before and after Morsi’s removal were made, but

were declined.143

141 “Readout of the President’s call with President Morsi of Egypt”, The White House, 2 July

2013. 142 Fisher, M. “Here’s the Egyptian military’s full statement warning it may act in 48 hours”,

The Washington Post, 1 July 2013; Egypt protests: army issues 48-hour ultimatum - as it

happened, The Guardian, 1 July 2013.

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102. The events of 3 July 2013 indicate that it became apparent, following

Morsi’s midnight speech, that it would be impossible for political factions

to reach consensus by the ultimatum’s deadline. Moreover, it became clear

that further delay could not lead to a political resolution but risked

increased fighting and possible civil war. As el-Baradei said,

“In my judgment, we could not have waited even one more

week.”144

103. Following the expiration of the ultimatum, al-Sisi made a televised

speech (as mentioned in Chapter 2) reiterating the three points that he had

emphasized on 1 July 2013, that a coalition of social and political forces

had decided, in the name of the popular will, and to avert the threat to

national security, that new presidential elections would be called.

3.1.2 3 July 2013: Morsi’s rejection of the ultimatum

104. President Morsi’s public response to al-Sisi’s ultimatum on behalf of

the Egyptian people came at midnight on 2 – 3 July 2013, after a four-hour

143 “Egyptian army suspends constitution and removes President Morsi – as it happened”,

The Guardian, 3 July 2013. See also “Freedom and Justice Party: No Military Coup Dialogue”,

FJP Online, 6 July 2013. 144 “Prominent Egyptian Liberal Says He Sought West’s Support for Uprising”, New York

Times, 4 July 2013.

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long meeting between Morsi and al-Sisi at the Presidential Palace that day,

reportedly discussing a power-sharing plan.145

105. A statement on the official Facebook page of the Office of Assistant to

President for Foreign Relations and International Cooperation released on

3 July 2013 said that the President discussed, “an initiative from an

alliance of parties supporting constitutional legitimacy” with the Prime

Minister and the Minister of Defence. The statement provided that,

“the initiative called for a full change of cabinet, a prime

minister acceptable to all, changing the public prosecutor,

agreement on constitutional amendments, and a reconciliation

commission” and that “all three of them agreed that it presented

an excellent path for Egypt out of its current impasse.”146

106. Morsi refused to resign and call early presidential elections, as called

for by Tamarod’s petition, mass protests, and their ultimatum threatening

civil disobedience.147

107. Morsi’s public response did not relieve the mounting tension on the

street, or the threat of civil war. Instead, his response entrenched it. Morsi

145 Chulov, M. and Kingsley, P. “Egypt: President Morsi defiant as time runs out”, The

Guardian, 3 July 2013. See also Kingsley, P. and Chulov M., “Mohamed Morsi ousted in

Egypt's second revolution in two years”, The Guardian, 4 July 2013. 146 Office of the Assistant to the President for Foreign Relations and International

Cooperation, Facebook, 3 July 2013. 147 “Egyptian army suspends constitution and removes President Morsi – as it happened”,

The Guardian, 3 July 2013.

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claimed that any attempt to force him from power would spark violent

conflict between Islamists and their opponents and proclaimed,

“if the price of protecting legitimacy is my blood, I’m willing to

pay it.”148

108. On 3 July 2013, Ayman Ali, a spokesman for Morsi reiterated Morsi’s

response to the ultimatum, stating that Morsi believed it was better to,

“die standing like a tree” and “defend the democratic system”

than to resign.149

3.1.3 3 July 2013: Response to Morsi’s rejection of the ultimatum

109. Morsi’s midnight speech was immediately interpreted by many on

social media as a coded message to Muslim Brotherhood activists to

unleash war on their fellow Egyptians, “enemies of the true faith” and

thus as incitement to violence. 150

110. Mohamed el-Baradei, leader of the opposition Dustour (constitution)

Party and representative of the opposition umbrella group the National

Salvation Front, took a similar view. He appealed for military intervention

148 “Morsi Defies Egypt Army’s Ultimatum to Bend to Protest”, New York Times, 2 July 2013. 149 “Mursi thinks better to “die standing like tree” – aide”, Reuters, 3 July 2013. 150 Abdelhadi, M., “In Egypt, all eyes are on the army,” The Guardian, 3 July 2013.

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to save Egyptian lives, saying Morsi’s speech showed that he had “lost his

mind” and “incited bloodshed of Egyptians.”151

111. Mahmoud Badr, one of the founders of Tamarod also called for,

“the army to intervene to prevent the bloodshed of the Egyptian

people.” 152

112. The statement by Gehad el-Haddad, the official spokesman of the

Muslim Brotherhood movement appeared to support such fears. He said

that his supporters were willing to become martyrs to defend Morsi,

“There is only one thing we can do: we will stand in between

the tanks and the president.”153

113. Prior to the mass protests of 30 June 2013, Al Azhar had warned in a

statement of potential “civil war.154

114. Mohamed el-Beltagy, a senior Muslim Brotherhood leader had

declared that, “seeking martyrdom,” was the only choice to stop “the coup

151 “ElBaradei party asks army to save Egyptians from 'mad' Morsi”, Reuters, 3 July 2013. See

also, Perry, T. and Fick, M. “Egypt's President Mohammed Morsi, Army Chiefs Prepare For

Showdown Hours Ahead Of Ultimatum”, The World Post, 3 July 2013. 152 Perry, T. and Fick, M. “Egypt's President Mohammed Morsi, Army Chiefs Prepare For

Showdown Hours Ahead Of Ultimatum”, The World Post, 3 July 2013. 153 Perry, T. and Fick, M. “Egypt's President Mohammed Morsi, Army Chiefs Prepare For

Showdown Hours Ahead Of Ultimatum”, The World Post, 3 July 2013. 154 Kirkpatrick, D., “Egypt, Its Streets a Tinderbox, Braces for a Spark”, New York Times, 29

June 2013.

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of June 30.”155 Pro-Morsi protesters had been chanting, “[w]e will sacrifice

our lives for our religion”156 and members of the Muslim Brotherhood

were reported to have marched in the streets carrying death shrouds.157

115. Thousands of Muslim Brotherhood members, many armed with clubs

and helmets, had been camped in front of Raba’a al-Adaweya Mosque in

anticipation of a battle to defend Morsi. 158 On 3 July 2013 men with

helmets and shields were manning the entrance to the Muslim

Brotherhood sit-in in front of Raba’a al-Adaweya Mosque.159

116. Street battles had occurred between pro-Morsi and anti-Morsi

supporters, causing injuries and deaths. For example, on 2 July 2013

fighting near Cairo University was described as “literal war”,160 with at

least 18 people reported to have been killed and more than 300 injured.161

On 3 July 2013, tanks and soldiers were deployed to separate the pro- and

anti-Morsi protesters, in anticipation of further unrest.162

155 Kirkpatrick, D., “Depth of Discontent Threatens Muslim Brotherhood and Its Leader”,

New York Times, 2 July 2013. 156 Kirkpatrick, D.“By the Millions, Egyptians Seek Morsi’s Ouster”, New York Times, 30 June

2013. 157 Kirkpatrick, D., “Depth of Discontent Threatens Muslim Brotherhood and Its Leader”,

New York Times, 2 July 2013. 158 Kirkpatrick, D., “Egypt, Its Streets a Tinderbox, Braces for a Spark”, New York Times, 29

June 2013. See also Kirkpatrick, D.“By the Millions, Egyptians Seek Morsi’s Ouster”, New

York Times, 30 June 2013 and Putz, U., “Egypt Putsch: End of the Road for Muslim

Brotherhood”, Speigel Online International, 4 July 2013. 159 “Egyptian army suspends constitution and removes President Morsi – as it happened”,

The Guardian, 3 July 2013. 160 “Egypt: Deadly Clashes at Cairo University”, Human Rights Watch, 5 July 2013. See also,

“July 2 Updates on Egypt’s Political Crisis,” New York Times, 2 July 2013. 161 “Updates on the Toppling of Morsi”, New York Times, 3 July 2013. 162 Bowen, J., @BowenBBC, Twitter, 3 July 2013.

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117. On 3 July 2013, following 3 days of mass protests, Tamarod had called

for protesters to march to the Republican Guard Palace, where Morsi was

believed to be staying, at 4 pm - the deadline of the military ultimatum for

political resolution, to demand Morsi’s arrest on charges of inciting a civil

war.163 Hundreds of thousands of anti-Morsi protesters also gathered in

Tahrir Square, the Ittihadiya Palace and the Ministry of Defence prior to

the expiry of the ultimatum.164 Protests were reported in Alexandria, Kafr

El-Sheikh, Tanta, Menoufiya, Domiat, Sharqiya, and Mansoura.165

3.1.4 3 July 2013: Army Response to Morsi’s rejection of the ultimatum

118. Three hours after Morsi’s speech, the Supreme Council of the Armed

Forces posted its response on its official Facebook page. The post entitled,

“The Final Hours” made it clear that the army would support the people.

It said,

“We swear to God that we will sacrifice even our blood for

Egypt and its people, to defend them against any terrorist,

163 Lucus, S., “Middle East, July 3: Egypt — The Military Removes President Morsi”, EA

WorldView, 3 July 2013. See also ““The time of victory has come”: Tamarod”, Daily News

Egypt, 3 July 2013, http://www.dailynewsegypt.com/2013/07/03/the-time-of-victory-has-

come-tamarod/, “Egyptian army suspends constitution and removes President Morsi – as it

happened”, The Guardian, 3 July 2013, @tamarrod, Twitter, 3 July 2013 164 “Hundreds of thousands flock to Tahrir to hear army statement” Egypt Independent, 3

July 2013. See also, “Live updates: Morsi ousted; head of constitutional court to take over

Egypt presidency”, Ahram Online, 3 July 2013. 165 “Live updates: Morsi ousted; head of constitutional court to take over Egypt presidency”,

Ahram Online, 3 July 2013.

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radical or fool.”166

119. During al-Sisi’s announcement after the expiry of the ultimatum, he

explained that it was Morsi’s speech that had convinced a coalition of

political, national, religious, and youth forces and the army of the need to

act to end “the state of conflict and division.” There had been “hope that

national accord would be achieved to delineate a roadmap” but Morsi’s

speech had, “failed to meet the overall demands of the people.” 167

3.1.5 3 July 2013: Last minute negotiations

120. On 3 July 2013, al-Sisi met with: Mohamed el-Baradei; representative

for the National Salvation Front and the April 6 Youth Movement;

representatives of the “Tamarod” (Rebel) campaign; members of the Salafi

Nour party and the head of the Coptic Church; Pope Tawadros II, and

Sheik Ahmed El-Tayeb, head of Al-Azhar.168 The Muslim Brotherhood’s

Freedom and Justice Party was invited to attend, but refused to send a

delegation, stating, “we have a President and that is it.”169

121. As the deadline set for Morsi to meet Tamarod’s demands to resign

and call new presidential elections or face complete civil disobedience

166 Admin official page of the Higher Military Council, Facebook, 3 July 2013. See also “Egypt

army says ready to die in “final hours””, Reuters, 2 July 2013. 167 “Egypt Army Chief Gen Abdul Fattah al-Sisi statement”, BBC News, 4 July 2013. 168 Mackey, R., Stack, L. and El Naggar, M., “Updates on the Toppling of Morsi”, New York

Times, 3 July 2013. 169 “Muslim Brotherhood party refuses to meet Egypt army chief”, Reuters, 3 July 2013. See

also, “Egypt’s Morsi offers consensus government,” Al Jazeera, 3 July 2013.

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approached, the Egyptian military spokesman confirmed that the General

Command was holding meetings with “religious, national, political and

youth figures” and said a statement would be released as soon as the talks

ended.170

122. On 7 July 2013, Mahmoud Badr, one of the leaders of the Tamarod

movement, said that he had rejected a suggestion by al-Sisi that Morsi

should call a referendum on his continued rule telling him that, “Millions

of people were demonstrating for the recall of the president, not for a

referendum.”

123. Badr recalled that he had said, “I tell you, sir, you may be the general

commander of the Egyptian army but the Egyptian people are your

supreme commander, and they are immediately ordering you to side with

their will and call an early presidential election” and that al-Sisi had given

in.171

124. Morsi released a statement on the Facebook account of his official

spokesman, reiterating his position that, “violating constitutional

legitimacy threatens democratic practice,” that “legitimacy is the sole

guarantor of stability and resistance to violence and unlawful means,” and

that “Egyptians have their say at the ballot box.” He said it would be

biased to listen to one side, and proposed that the President form a

170 Egypt Military Spokesman, Facebook, 3 July 2013. 171 “Mahmoud Badr, Tamarod Protest Leader, ‘Owns The Streets’ In Egypt,” The World Post,

7 July 2013.

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coalition to oversee the parliamentary elections and an independent

commission to propose constitutional amendments.172

125. A spokesman for President Morsi released a statement on the Facebook

page of the Office of Assistant to President for Foreign Relations and

International Cooperation condemning the political opposition for

refusing to participate in discussions called for by the President “since

January and again in the last couple of weeks” and for “inviting the

military to become the custodians of government in Egypt.” 173

126. The statement warned that, “there will be considerable bloodshed,”

and said that to move those gathered to support democracy and the

Presidency, “there will have to be violence.” It threatened worldwide

catastrophic ramifications for the message that, “will resonate through the

Muslim world loud and clear: democracy is not for Muslims.”174

127. Two hours after the expiry of the deadline, it was reported that the

deadline had been extended in an effort to reach consensus and to prevent

further violence and to guarantee the president's safety.175

172 Egypt Presidential Spokesman, Facebook, 3 July 2013. 173 Office of the Assistant to the President for Foreign Relations and International

Cooperation, Facebook, 3 July 2013. 174 Office of the Assistant to the President for Foreign Relations and International

Cooperation, Facebook, 3 July 2013. 175 “Live updates: Morsi ousted; head of constitutional court to take over Egypt presidency”,

Ahram Online, 3 July 2013.

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128. Shortly after, military armoured vehicles were deployed close to Cairo

University in Giza, along the Nile Bridge connecting Giza and Cairo, in

Tahrir Square, at the Ittihadiya presidential palace, and at the Raba’a Al-

Adawiya Mosque, where rallies were being staged, and the Central

Security Forces were present at Tahrir Square and key state institutions.176

129. Travel bans were reportedly imposed on Morsi, Mohammed Badie and

Khairat al-Shater over their involvement in prison escapes in 2011.177 The

official spokesman of the armed forces, Colonel Ahmed Ali, said on his

facebook page, “Our army is seeking to secure all Egyptians, regardless of

their affiliations.”178

3.1.6 3 July 2013: Al-Sisi’s speech

130. On the evening of 3 July 2013, several hours after the army’s ultimatum

to President Morsi to solve the political crisis had passed without

agreement, a coalition led by Defence Minister and chief of the armed

forces, Lieutenant-General Abdel-Fatah al-Sisi announced the agreed

future roadmap,

“containing initial measures which ensures the construction of a

strong and coherent Egyptian society which does not exclude 176 “Live updates: Morsi ousted; head of constitutional court to take over Egypt presidency”,

Ahram Online, 3 July 2013. 177 “Live updates: Morsi ousted; head of constitutional court to take over Egypt presidency”,

Ahram Online, 3 July 2013. 178 “Live updates: Morsi ousted; head of constitutional court to take over Egypt presidency”,

Ahram Online, 3 July 2013.

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any of its members and trends, and which ends the state of

conflict and division.”179

131. Al-Sisi emphasized that the roadmap had been agreed during a

meeting with, “some figures representing political, national, religious, and

youth forces without excluding any party.” 180 As discussed above, the

Freedom and Justice Party had refused to attend.

132. To demonstrate the collaborative nature of the roadmap, during the

televised address to the Egyptian nation, al-Sisi was accompanied by

Ahmed al-Tayyeb, the Grand Sheikh of Al-Azhar, Pope Tawadros II of

Egypt's Coptic Church, Mohamed el-Baradei, representative of the 30 June

Coalition and the National Salvation Front, Younes Makhyoun, chairman

of the Salafi Al-Nour party and crucial partner in the Muslim

Brotherhood’s November 2012 Constitution,181 and Mahmoud Badr and

Mohamed Abdel Aziz, representatives from the Tamarod campaign.182

133. During the speech, al-Sisi reiterated that the armed forces were, are

and would remain, “distant from political action.” The Egyptian people

had called on the army “to come to their support” and to protect “the

demands of their revolution” rather than “to assume power.” In

179 Kingsley, P. and Chulov M., “Mohamed Morsi ousted in Egypt's second revolution in two

years”, The Guardian, 4 July 2013. 180 “Egypt Army Chief Gen Abdul Fattah al-Sisi statement”, BBC News, 4 July 2013. 181 Kingsley, P., “Egypt's Salafist al-Nour party wields new influence on post-Morsi coalition”,

The Guardian, 7 July 2013. 182 Weaver, M. and McCarthy, T., “Egyptian army suspends constitution and removes

President Morsi – as it happened”, The Guardian, 3 July 2013.

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responding to this call, the armed forces have invoked their, “patriotic,

and not political, role.”183

134. He emphasized that the armed forces had gone to,

“tremendous efforts over the past few months…to contain the

domestic situation and conduct national reconciliation

comprising all the political forces, including the presidential

institution.” 184

135. Al-Sisi recalled that in November 2012, the armed forces had called for

a national dialogue to which all the national and political forces had

responded, but that had been rejected by the presidency at the last

moment. He referred to subsequent calls and initiatives put forward by

the armed forces, including domestic and foreign strategic assessments

addressing the most pivotal challenges and dangers facing the homeland

on the economic, security, political, and social levels and on, “how to

confront the challenges and dangers in order to end the current crisis.” He

mentioned the meeting between the General Command of the Armed

Forces and the President of the Republic on 22 June 2013, where the armed

forces had rejected the harming of the state's national and religious

institutions and attempts to intimidate or threaten the Egyptian people. 185

183 “Egypt Army Chief Gen Abdul Fattah al-Sisi statement”, BBC News, 4 July 2013. 184 “Egypt Army Chief Gen Abdul Fattah al-Sisi statement”, BBC News, 4 July 2013. 185 “Egypt Army Chief Gen Abdul Fattah al-Sisi statement”, BBC News, 4 July 2013.

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136. Al-Sisi said that there had been, “hope that national accord would be

achieved to delineate a roadmap and to give the people a sense of trust

and reassurance, in addition to stability, in a way that secures their hopes

and aspirations”186 but that, “the speech which the president made before

the expiry of the 48-hour deadline failed to meet the overall demands of

the people.”187 As a result it had been necessary for a coalition of political,

national, religious and youth forces and the army to agree a roadmap to

end “the state of conflict and division.”

137. Al-Sisi announced that the roadmap would include:

i. temporary suspension of the constitution;

ii. empowering the head of the Supreme Constitutional Court to

run the country until a new president is elected via early

presidential elections;

iii. forming a new technocratic government;

iv. asking the Supreme Constitutional Court to hasten passing the

parliamentary elections law, currently under review, to allow

for parliamentary elections;

v. forming a committee to amend controversial articles of the

temporarily suspended constitution;

vi. laying down a media code of ethics to guarantee the media’s

professionalism;

vii. forming a committee to foster “national reconciliation”;

186 “Egypt Army Chief Gen Abdul Fattah al-Sisi statement”, BBC News, 4 July 2013. 187 “Egypt Army Chief Gen Abdul Fattah al-Sisi statement”, BBC News, 4 July 2013.

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viii. taking immediate steps to include youth in decision making

circles.188

138. Al-Sisi concluded by calling on the Egyptian people to remain peaceful

and avoid violence, and warned that in cooperation with the Ministry of

the Interior, and in accordance with the law, they would stand firmly and

decisively against any act deviating from peacefulness.189

139. After the announcement the grand sheikh of Egypt's Al-Azhar Ahmed

el-Tayeb, Coptic Orthodox Pope Tawadros II and leading opposition

figure Mohamed el-Baradei and leading representative of Tamarod,

Mahmoud Badr made brief supportive statements. Galal Morra, Secretary

General of the Salafi Nour party also broadcast a statement supporting the

roadmap.

140. Ahmed el-Tayeb said, “We hope that the opposing sides can come

together and mend fences.” 190

141. Coptic Orthodox Pope Tawdros II, who had tweeted his support for

“the Egyptian people recovering their stolen revolution” on 2 July 2013,191

blessed al-Sisi’s announcement, saying, “[t]his roadmap has been drafted

188 “Egypt military unveils transitional roadmap”, Ahram Online, 3 July 2013. 189 “Transcript: Egypt's army statement”, Al Jazeera, 3 July 2013. 190 Lucas, S., Middle East, July 3: Egypt — The Military Removes President Morsi, EA World

View, 3 July 2013. See also, “Egyptian army suspends constitution and removes President

Morsi – as it happened”, The Guardian, 3 July 2013. 191 “Pope Tawadros II Tweets Support For Protestors In Egypt”, Huffington Post, 2 July 2013.

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by honourable people who seek the interests, first and foremost, of the

country”,192 and that “all [had] gathered under the Egyptian flag.” 193

142. Mohamed el-Baradei said, “I hope that this plan will be a starting point

for a new beginning for the January 25 revolution”194 and called for “social

justice for every single Egyptian.”195 He said the Egyptian streets had paid

a high price for a hopeful political future.196

143. Mahmoud Badr called, “for all political parties to come and start a

dialogue [… ] we don’t want to exclude anyone.”197

144. Galal Morra, Secretary General of the Salafi Al-Nour party said, in a

television interview that, “we took this position and we took these

decision only so we stop the bloodshed of our people.”198

192 “Egypt crisis: Army ousts President Mohammed Morsi”, BBC News, 4 July 2013. 193 Lucas, S., Middle East, July 3: Egypt — The Military Removes President Morsi, EA World

View, 3 July 2013. See also, “Egyptian army suspends constitution and removes President

Morsi – as it happened”, The Guardian, 3 July 2013. 194 “Egypt military unveils transitional roadmap”, Ahram Online, 3 July 2013. 195 “Egyptian army suspends constitution and removes President Morsi – as it happened”,

The Guardian, 3 July 2013. 196 “Egypt military unveils transitional roadmap”, Ahram Online, 3 July 2013. See also

Weaver, M. and McCarthy, T., “Egyptian army suspends constitution and removes President

Morsi – as it happened”, The Guardian, 3 July 2013. 197 Zeese, K., “Egyptian Revolution Phase II, Morsi Out, Transition Government In,” Popular

Resistance, 3 July 2013. 198 “Egyptians react to Morsi's removal”, Al Jazeera, 3 July 2013.

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3.1.7 Coalition Roadmap

145. Prior to al-Sisi’s announcement of the coalition roadmap for a

transitional period in Egypt following Morsi’s departure on 3 July 2013,

details of roadmaps proposed by Tamarod, the army had been released,

alongside roadmaps from the Strong Egypt Party,199 the April 6 Youth

Movement,200 the Revolutionary Socialists,201 the Alliance of Revolutionary

Forces,202 the Salafi Al-Nour Party and the Salafist Call.203

146. The differences between the roadmap reportedly proposed by the

army and the roadmap that al-Sisi announced on the evening of 3 July

2013 further evidences the collaboration, negotiations and consultations

that occurred between Tamarod, the National Salvation Front, the Salafi

Al-Nour party and the army in the presence of the grand sheikh of the Al-

Azhar and the Coptic Pope during the day of 3 July 2013.

147. Tamarod had initially announced details of a transitional roadmap on

10 June 2013 that proposed, “during the transitional period, the chairman

199 Mourad, M., “A host of roadmaps: Opposition, Islamists & Army propose ways out of

Egypt crisis”, AhramOnline, 2 July 2013. 200 Mourad, M., “A host of roadmaps: Opposition, Islamists & Army propose ways out of

Egypt crisis”, AhramOnline, 2 July 2013. See also “Egypt’s April 6 announces 6-step election

road map,” AhramOnline, 2 July 2013. 201 Mourad, M., “A host of roadmaps: Opposition, Islamists & Army propose ways out of

Egypt crisis”, AhramOnline, 2 July 2013. 202 El-Dabh, B. “Revolutionary group proposes transitional roadmap” Daily News Egypt, 4

June 2013 accessed at: http://www.dailynewsegypt.com/2013/06/04/revolutionary-group-

proposes-transitional-roadmap/ 203 Mourad, M., “A host of roadmaps: Opposition, Islamists & Army propose ways out of

Egypt crisis”, AhramOnline, 2 July 2013.

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of the Supreme Constitutional Court would become acting president and a

coalition cabinet would be formed to include all the national political

movements.”204 Further details were announced on 26 June 2013205 and the

National Salvation Front had endorsed it.206

148. On 3 July 2013, Tamarod published its roadmap via its Twitter account.

It called for: (i) a new temporary president and prime minister, the

election of a constitutional council within 30 days (ii) a new constitution to

be drafted within 90 days; (iii) a referendum on the constitution within 15

days of its drafting; and (iv) presidential elections within 60 days of an

agreed constitution.207 It said that it rejected other roadmaps being put

forward.208

149. The army’s roadmap was said to plan to: (i) suspend the constitution;

(ii) dissolve the parliament; (iii) install a interim council comprised of

civilian from different political groups and technocrats to run the country

until an amended constitution was drafted; (iv) hold new presidential

204 Taha, R., “Tamarod proposes transitional roadmap” Daily News Egypt, 10 June 2013,

accessed at: http://www.dailynewsegypt.com/2013/06/10/tamarod-proposes-transitional-

roadmap/ 205 El Gundy, Z. “Tamarod launches 30 June Front, proposes post-Morsi roadmap”, Ahram

Online, 26 June 2013. 206 Mourad, M., “A host of roadmaps: Opposition, Islamists & Army propose ways out of

Egypt crisis”, AhramOnline, 2 July 2013. 207 “Egyptian army suspends constitution and removes President Morsi – as it happened”,

The Guardian, 3 July 2013 208 “Egyptian army suspends constitution and removes President Morsi – as it happened”,

The Guardian, 3 July 2013. See also “Egypt army plan would scrap constitution, parliament:

Reuters”, Ahram Online, 2 July 2013.

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elections and parliamentary elections once strict conditions for selecting

candidates were in force.209

150. The Salafist Watan Party’s national reconciliation initiative, which was

supported by 9 political parties and 12 Islamist-leaning movements,

including the Freedom and Justice Party and Al-Gamaa Al-Islamiya’s

Building and Development Party had also been released, 210 and was

reportedly discussed in the meeting between Morsi, al-Sisi and Prime

Minister Qandil on 2 July 2013. 211 The initiative proposed forming a

national unity government, a popular committee for transparency of

elections and a body for constitutional amendments.

151. The roadmap that al-Sisi announced on the evening of 3 July 2013, with

the head of the Supreme Constitutional Court to be empowered to run the

country, indicates the importance of the meetings on 3 July 2013 in

deciding the course of events, after the negotiations with Morsi had not

only failed, but he had made an uncompromising and what was perceived

to be a threatening speech. In particular, the roadmap indicates the

influence of Tamarod’s refusal to accept a solution other than Morsi’s

resignation and new presidential elections.

209 “Egypt army plan would scrap constitution, parliament: Reuters”, Ahram Online, 2 July

2013. 210 Mourad, M., “A host of roadmaps: Opposition, Islamists & Army propose ways out of

Egypt crisis”, AhramOnline, 2 July 2013. 211 Mackey, R., Stack, L. and El Naggar, M., “Updates on the Toppling of Morsi”, New York

Times, 3 July 2013.

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3.1.8 3 July 2013: Legitimacy

152. During Morsi’s speech at midnight on 2 July 2013 he repeated the word

“legitimacy” a large number of times.212 Morsi had originally promised on

29 June 2012 to respect, “the will of the people” which he regarded to be,

“the source of power and legitimacy,” that “grants and withdraws power”

and that “no authority is over or above this power.”213 However, during

his speech on 2 July 2013, Morsi linked legitimacy with the presidential

elections and the constitution. He did not acknowledge the size of the

protests on the streets and warned that “legitimacy” was the only

guarantee “to ensure there will be no violence.”214

153. Morsi’s claim to “legitimacy” as head of state should be further

challenged as he had overstepped the bounds of his authority and

unconstitutionally placed himself above the law. Morsi had sworn, in his

oath of office, to “preserve the republican order and to respect the

constitution and law, and completely care for the people’s interest.”215

However, Morsi had taken upon himself both executive and legislative

powers, and had declared that his decisions were not subject to judicial

review, even when their constitutionality was in doubt.

154. El-Baradei explained further,

212 Mackey, R., “July 2 Updates on Egypt’s Political Crisis”, New York Times, 2 July 2013. 213 “President Morsi’s Speech in Tahrir Square, 29 June 2012”, Ikwanweb, 30 June 2012. 214 Mackey, R., “July 2 Updates on Egypt’s Political Crisis”, New York Times, 2 July 2013. 215 “Egypt's new president Mohammed Morsi takes oath of office”, The Telegraph, 30 June

2012.

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“We didn’t have a parliament. We only had a president who

may have been elected democratically but who governed

autocratically and violated the spirit of democracy. Morsi had

targeted the judiciary, pressured the media and hollowed out

rights for women and religious minorities. He abused his office

to put his Muslim Brothers in key positions. He stepped on all

universal values. And he drove his country into economic

ruin.”216

155. This view was echoed in a statement by the United States House of

Representatives Foreign Relations Committee on Egypt released in

response to on-going events in Egypt,

“What the Brotherhood neglected to understand is that

democracy means more than simply holding elections. Real

democracy requires inclusiveness, compromise, respect for

human and minority rights, and a commitment to the rule of

law.”217

156. However, although a head of state can usually be impeached for

treason and other serious criminal offences and for breaching the

constitution, there was no mechanism in place by which Morsi could be

216 “Interview with El-Baradei: This was not a coup”, De Spiegel, 8 July 2013. 217 “Statement By The House Foreign Relations Committee On Egypt”, Huffington Post, 5 July

2013.

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constitutionally removed. As el-Baradei said, “We did not have a recall

process. People ask[ed] for the recall process with their feet in Tahrir

Square.” 218

157. In November 2012, at the time of the controversial constitutional

decree, Egypt's Constitutional Court had reportedly considered the

possibility of impeaching Morsi for violating his oath and undermining

the country's constitutional foundations as the constitution had been

suspended in March 2011, and the new constitution was still being

debated. 219

158. In July 2013, Article 152 of the 2012 constitution provided for an

impeachment process following the commission of a felony or treason. A

President of the Republic could be removed from office following a

motion supported by two thirds of the members of the House of

Representatives and a subsequent trial before a special court.220 However,

a House of Representatives had not been elected. The Supreme

Constitutional Court had dissolved the People’s Assembly prior to Morsi’s

election on the grounds that the parliamentary election law was

unconstitutional.221

218 Kirkpatrick, D. “Prominent Egyptian Liberal Says He Sought West’s Support for

Uprising”, New York Times, 4 July 2013. 219 “Egypt's Constitutional Court looking to impeach Morsi – reports”, RT, 22 November 2012. 220 “Egypt’s draft constitution translated,” Egypt Independent, 2 December 2012. 221 Aziz, S., “Egypt’s Impeachment Alternative”, Carnegie Endowment for International

Peace, 31 October 2013.

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159. In the absence of an impeachment procedure, legitimacy could only be

reclaimed by popular democracy in the street, demanding new

presidential elections or calling for the military to depose the president. As

Bassiouni has said,

“revolutions are the ultimate resort to achieve by means of

popular protests and sometimes by force what a lawful,

constitutional and legal process failed to achieve.” 222

160. El-Baradei explained, during an interview on 8 July 2013,

“we had no other choice […] [m]ore than 20 million people took

to the streets because the situation was no longer acceptable.

Without Morsi's removal from office, we would have been

headed toward a fascist state, or there would have been a civil

war.”223

161. Between 2 and 3 July 2013, when it became apparent that Morsi would

not step down voluntarily, as called for by the millions supporting the

Tamarod campaign, a coalition led by the army intervened in support of

the popular demand that Morsi be deposed. 224 As Amira Nowaira,

Professor at Alexandria University, wrote,

222 Bassiouni, M. C., “Egypt Update No. 20, Chronicles of the Continued Egyptian Revolution

of 25 January 2011”, 17 July 2013. 223 “Interview with El-Baradei: This was not a coup”, De Spiegel, 8 July 2013. 224 Bassiouni, M. C., “Egypt Update No. 20, Chronicles of the Continued Egyptian Revolution

of 25 January 2011”, 17 July 2013.

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“Without the presence of those millions on the streets and the

determination to get rid of Mohamed Morsi and his Muslim

Brotherhood, the military would certainly not have intervened. The

army acted on a clear popular mandate, as was the case with the

overthrow of Hosni Mubarak.”225

3.1.9 3 July 2013: Morsi after al-Sisi’s speech

162. Immediately following al-Sisi’s announcement, Morsi attempted to

assert his authority in a response posted on Facebook, in which he labelled

the announcement a “military coup” and “call[ed] on the entire

population… to abide by the constitution and the laws” and “to avoid

shedding blood.”226

163. Responses were also posted on Twitter, and YouTube, although both

were subsequently removed,227 and an audio was played over loudspeaker

to his supporters rallying in the Nasr City neighbourhood. Morsi stressed

his “legitimacy” and that there was “no alternative to legitimacy.”

225 Nowaira, A., “This is not a coup, but the will of Egypt's people” The Guardian, 4 July 2013. 226 President Morsi, Facebook, 3 July 2013. 227 Mackey, R., Stack, L. and El Naggar, M., “Updates on the Toppling of Morsi”, New York

Times, 3 July 2013. See also “Deleted Video Message from Mohamed Morsi”, YouTube, 3 July

2013.

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164. Shortly after Morsi was removed from power, arrest warrants were

issued for other senior members of the Muslim Brotherhood.228 Saad El-

Katatni, head of the Freedom and Justice Party and Rashad Bayoumi,

group's deputy supreme guide were arrested.229 There were reports that

Mohamed Badie, the leader of the Muslim Brotherhood had also been

arrested, 230 but it later emerged that these reports were inaccurate, and on

5 July 2013 he addressed a rally in Nasr City saying, “We will sacrifice

ourselves, our souls and our blood for President Morsi.”231

165. El-Baradei said that he had been reassured that there had been no

arbitrary arrests and that the numbers of arrests had been greatly

exaggerated. 232 He said that Egypt was deeply divided and national

reconciliation was required, and that he hoped the Muslim Brotherhood

would participate in the next round of talks. “Being a member of the

Muslim Brotherhood is no crime.” 233

228 Kingsley, P. and Chulov, M.,“Egypt's military arrest Muslim Brotherhood supreme

leader”, The Guardian, 4 July 2013. 229 “Muslim Brotherhood Supreme Guide Arrested”, Daily News Egypt, 4 July 2013, accessed

at

http://www.dailynewsegypt.com/2013/07/04/muslim-brotherhood-supreme-guide-arrested/ 230 Kingsley, P. and Chulov, M., “Morsi supporters prepare to defend themselves as tide turns

in Egypt” The Guardian, 4 July 2013. 231 @Ikhwanweb, Twitter, 4 July 2013. See also “Egypt’s ‘day of rejection’ - Friday 5 July as it

happened,” The Guardian, 5 July 2013. 232 “Interview with Egyptian Politician ElBaradei: ‘This Was Not a Coup’”, De Speigel, 8 July

2013. 233 “Interview with Egyptian Politician ElBaradei: ‘This Was Not a Coup’”, De Speigel, 8 July

2013.

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3.1.10 3 July 2013: Media

166. Shortly after the military statement announcing the end of Morsi’s

presidency the Muslim Brotherhood-owned television channel Misr 25

went off air along with several other Islamist-run channels, including the

Hafez and Al-Nas.234

167. During al-Sisi’s announcement he had called on the Egyptian people to

remain peaceful and avoid violence, and warned that in cooperation with

the Ministry of the Interior, and in accordance with the law, they would

stand firmly and decisively against any act deviating from peacefulness.235

168. During the 30 June 2013 mass protests, the channels had been opposed

to anti-government demonstrations, and to the ultimatum announced by

the armed forces to “political entities” to end the division in the country.

The channels repeatedly hosted high profile Islamic preachers who used

religious rhetoric to denounce the protests and support Morsi.236

169. El-Baradei explained,

“The Islamist tv stations were closed because they were

fomenting unrest with their fatwas.” 237 The Islamist satellite

234 “Islamic TV channels off air, police arrest crews”, Ahram Online, 3 July 2013. 235 “Transcript: Egypt's army statement”, Al Jazeera, 3 July 2013. 236 “Egypt's military shuts down news channels”, Al Jazeera, 4 July 2013. 237 “Interview with Egyptian Politician ElBaradei: “This Was Not a Coup””, Spiegel Online, 8

July 2013.

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networks that were shut down “have been calling for vengeance

and murder and incitement to kill, so they have to shut them

down for a while.” In some raided stations “there were

weapons.”238 “The security people obviously are worried – there

was an earthquake and we have to make sure that the tremors

are predicted and controlled.” 239 “They are taking some

precautionary measures to avoid violence.”240

170. This explanation was echoed by Khaled Dawoud, spokesman for the

National Salvation Front, who said that, “these are exceptional

circumstances” and that they were “trying to incite supporters to go and

fight.” 241

3.1.11 3 July 2013: Responses to al-Sisi’s announcement

171. Al-Sisi’s announcement was met with massive celebrations in Tahrir

Square and the Ittihadiya presidential palace, with fireworks, flag waving,

horns blasting and dancing.242

238 Kirkpatrick, D. “Prominent Egyptian Liberal Says He Sought West’s Support for

Uprising”, The New York Times, 4 July 2013. 239 “Interview with Egyptian Politician ElBaradei: “This Was Not a Coup””, Spiegel Online, 8

July 2013. 240 Kirkpatrick, D. “Prominent Egyptian Liberal Says He Sought West’s Support for

Uprising”, New York Times, 4 July 2013. 241 “Egypt's military shuts down news channels”, Al Jazeera, 4 July 2013. 242 Kingsley, P. and Chulov, M., “Mohamed Morsi ousted in Egypt's second revolution in two

years”, The Guardian, 4 July 2013.

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172. The April 6 Youth Movement said, “Today the demands of the people

have been met...the statement of the armed forces coincided with the

demands of the people, and the proposal of the political forces and that of

April 6, which it had put forward in July.” It called on people to maintain

peacefulness and avoid any bloodshed or incitement.243

173. The Interior Ministry released a statement saying that the roadmap

fulfils, “the people’s will and their interests” and stressed that the police

stand by the armed forces in efforts to achieve the country’s security and

stability.244

174. Tamarod reiterated the army’s warning against any possible killing of

civilians saying that anyone caught involved would stand trial and would

be held accountable by the people.245

175. In contrast, the Muslim Brotherhood website, Ikhwan Online,

denounced the announcement as a, “conspiracy against legitimacy, a

military coup that wastes popular will and brings Egypt back to

243 “Live updates: Morsi ousted; head of constitutional court to take over Egypt presidency”,

Ahram Online, 3 July 2013. 244 Kingsley, P. and Chulov, M., “Mohamed Morsi ousted in Egypt's second revolution in two

years”, The Guardian, 4 July 2013. See also “Live updates: Morsi ousted; head of

constitutional court to take over Egypt presidency”, Ahram Online, 3 July 2013. 245 “Live updates: Morsi ousted; head of constitutional court to take over Egypt presidency”,

Ahram Online, 3 July 2013.

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despotism.” It announced that, “millions in many squares have started a

sit-in in support of legitimacy.”246

176. Violence was reported in Marsa Matrouh, Kafr El-Sheikh and Assiut.247

3.2 Transitional Government

177. On 4 July 2013, Adly Mansour was declared temporary President

pursuant to the collective agreement of the attendants of the emergency

meeting of 3 July 2013,248 and in accordance with Part 5, Chapter 1, Article

84 of the 1971 Constitution.249 The 2012 Constitution had been suspended

by the collective agreement on 3 July 2013,250 and there had been issues as

to its legitimacy. Despite being approved in a public referendum in

December 2012, the Supreme Constitutional Court had ruled its drafting

committee unconstitutional on 6 February 2013.

178. On his appointment Adly Mansour sent a message of reconciliation to

the Muslim Brotherhood and spoke of the need for inclusivity and

246 “Middle East, July 3: Egypt – The Military Removes President Morsi.”, EA WorldView, 3

July 2013. See also “Live updates: Morsi ousted; head of constitutional court to take over

Egypt presidency”, Ahram Online, 3 July 2013. 247 “Live updates: Morsi ousted; head of constitutional court to take over Egypt presidency”,

Ahram Online, 3 July 2013. 248 NCHR, Findings of the Fact-finding Report issued by the Independent National

Commission on events concurrent with 30 June 2013, 11 March 2014. 249 Bassiouni, M. C., “Egypt Update No. 20, Chronicles of the Continued Egyptian Revolution

of 25 January 2011”, 17 July 2013. 250 NCHR, Findings of the Fact-finding Report issued by the Independent National

Commission on events concurrent with 30 June 2013, 11 March 2014.

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integration, 251 aims that were reflected both in his appointments and in his

Constitutional Declaration on 8 July 2013.

179. In Adly Mansour’s first speech he described Tamarod as, “an

embodiment of [the nation’s] hopes and ambitions. It was never a

movement seeking to realize special demands or personal interests.”252

Moreover, during his first interview he explained that all parties would

need to mobilize to build the nation. The Muslim Brotherhood is “invited

to integrate into this nation and be a part of it […] [i]f they answer the call

they will be welcomed.”253

180. As el-Baradei said in an interview on 4 July 2013, the coalition were,

“sending a message of reconciliation and an inclusive approach […] [t]he

Muslim Brotherhood should be welcomed back to participate in

parliamentary elections and the political process.”254

181. However, the Muslim Brotherhood and the Freedom and Justice Party

rejected Adly Mansour’s overtures and called for continued protests until

Morsi was restored.

251 Kirkpatrick, D. “Prominent Egyptian Liberal Says He Sought West’s Support for

Uprising”, New York Times, 4 July 2013. 252 Hendawi, H., “Adly Mansour Sworn In As Egypt's Interim President,” Associated Press, 4

July 2013. See also El Shafey, M., “Egypt: Adly Mansour sworn in as interim president”,

Asharq Al-Awsat, 4 July 2013. 253 “Egypt’s new president: my task is ‘very onerous’ – video”, Channel 4 News, 4 July 2013. 254 Kirkpatrick, D. “Prominent Egyptian Liberal Says He Sought West’s Support for

Uprising”, New York Times, 4 July 2013.

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182. In terms of Adly Mansour’s appointments, compromises to achieve

inclusivity and integration are most obviously demonstrated by

negotiations with the members of the coalition over el-Baradei’s

appointment. Initial reports indicated that el-Baradei would be appointed

Prime Minister, but due to objections that he was too secular by the

Salafist Nour party, that appointment was delayed, 255 and Hazem al-

Biblawi was eventually appointed as Prime Minister by the Temporary

President on 9 July 2013. 256 El-Baradei was appointed temporary Vice

President for Foreign Relations, and sworn in on 14 July 2013 by order of

the temporary President.257

183. A further attempt at integration was made by Prime Minister Hazem

al-Biblawi who said he could offer cabinet posts to the Muslim

Brotherhood’s Freedom and Justice Party. However, the Freedom and

Justice Party rejected the offer.258

184. On 5 July 2013 Adly Mansour issued a Constitutional Declaration

dissolving the Shura Council 259 and on 8 July 2013 he issued a

Constitutional Declaration which set out the system of State during the

255 Kingsley, P., “Egypt's Salafist al-Nour party wields new influence on post-Morsi coalition”,

The Guardian, 7 July 2013. 256 Bassiouni, M. C., “Egypt Update No. 20, Chronicles of the Continued Egyptian Revolution

of 25 January 2011”, 17 July 2013. 257 Bassiouni, M. C., “Egypt Update No. 20, Chronicles of the Continued Egyptian Revolution

of 25 January 2011”, 17 July 2013. 258 “Egypt Morsi: US seeks end to ex-president's detention,” BBC News, 12 July 2013. 259 “Constitutional Declaration, 5 July 2013”, State Information Service.

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transitional period and a timeline for amending the 2012 constitution and

conducting elections.260

185. The principles contained within the thirty-three articles suggest the

coalition that announced Morsi’s departure was involved in its drafting,

and indicate an inclusive approach.

186. Article 2, for example, reiterated the justification for Morsi’s removal,

stating that, “sovereignty is for the people, and the people practice this

sovereignty and protect it. The people are the source of all authorities.”

187. Article 1 appears to be influenced by the Salafists concerns,

emphasising the importance of the Sunni canons. It expanded the 1971

constitution, amended in 1980 that stated, “the principles of Islamic sharia

are the primary source of legislation” to “the principles of Islamic Sharia,

which include its overall evidences and jurisprudence rules and

established sources in the Sunni canons, is the main source of legislation.”

188. The army’s concerns also appear to be addressed. Article 21 confirms

the armed forces are owned by the people and are the sole protector of the

nation, and Article 23 does not define the President as Supreme

Commander of the Armed Forces, unlike Article 146 of the 2012

constitution.

260 “Constitutional Declaration, 8 July 2013”, State Information Service.

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189. The constitution also attempts to address concerns of the liberals.

Article 4 declares all citizens equal under the law regardless of “origin,

type, language, religion, or creed,” Article 6 states that no citizen may be

“arrested, searched, detained, or restricted in movement or freedom”

except the case of being caught red-handed or with a warrant from a judge

or the state prosecutor. Article 8 protected the freedom of the press,

removing the 2012 Constitution’s “Parliamentary Press Committee” that

would have been given the right to monitor the press and regulate which

organisations can and cannot publish.

190. The Constitutional Declaration’s timetable for the country’s

normalisation suggests it was intended to show that democracy was in the

making and that the military was not interested in seizing the reins of

power. 261

191. The timetable stated that within 15 days from the issuance of the

Declaration, a technocratic committee would be appointed to draft

amendments to the suspended Constitution of 2012 and to draw upon the

Constitution of 1971. The text would be submitted within 30 days to a 50-

member committee comprised of representatives from different segments

of society, for discussion and amendment. A public referendum would

take place within 30 days of the completion of their work. 15 days after the

referendum, parliamentary (legislative) elections would be announced

and would take within 2 months. One week after the inaugural session of

261 Bassiouni, M. C., “Egypt Update No. 20, Chronicles of the Continued Egyptian Revolution

of 25 January 2011”, 17 July 2013.

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the new parliament takes place there would be a call for the presidential

elections.262

3.3 Closing remarks

192. The events of 3 July 2013 indicate that a coalition of political and social

forces and the army collaborated to remove Morsi, in the name of the

popular will, once it became apparent that it would be impossible for

political factions to reach consensus by the deadline imposed by the

ultimatum, and that further delay risked increased fighting and possible

civil war.263

193. However, despite the temporary President Adly Mansour’s immediate

overtures to the Muslim Brotherhood to participate in building the

nation, 264 the Muslim Brotherhood rejected the offer 265 and committed

themselves to bringing about Morsi’s return,266 a strategy which became

increasingly more desperate and saw increasingly violent clashes on the

streets.

262 Bassiouni, M. C., “Egypt Update No. 20, Chronicles of the Continued Egyptian Revolution

of 25 January 2011”, 17 July 2013. See also “Egypt unrest: Interim leader outlines election

timetable”, BBC News, 9 July 2013. 263 “Prominent Egyptian Liberal Says He Sought West’s Support for Uprising”, New York

Times, 4 July 2013. 264 “Egypt’s new president says Brotherhood ‘part of nation’: report”, Reuters, 4 July 2013. 265 @Ikhwanweb, Twitter, 4 July 2013. 266 Chulov, M. & Kingsley, P., “Egypt prepares for backlash as Morsi allies reject new regime,”

The Guardian, 4 July 2013.

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CHAPTER 4

The Muslim Brotherhood’s Response

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4.1 Introduction

194. On 21 June 2013, the Muslim Brotherhood called for its supporters to

organise mass protests as part of pre-emptive measures to counter

demonstrations against President Mohamed Morsi.

195. Following the ousting of President Morsi on 3 July 2013, these protests

culminated in mass sit-ins held at al-Nadha Square and Rabaa al-Adawiya

Square (hereinafter “Rabaa Square”).

196. With pro-Morsi protesters refusing to negotiate or disperse, Egypt saw

violent clashes erupt on a daily basis. By 26 July 2013 it was estimated that

violent confrontations between the Muslim Brotherhood and the security

forces had resulted in an estimated 250 deaths and 2800 injuries.267

197. By 14 August 2013, the police force had received thousands of

complaints from local residents in Cairo, reporting the alleged commission

of serious crimes by pro-Morsi protesters, including murder, torture and

kidnapping.

198. Lasting over forty days, the mass sit-ins at the two camps became a

direct and legitimate threat to the security of Egypt. As Egyptian

authorities exercised all efforts to secure peaceful resolution to the

267 Bassiouni, M. C., “Egypt Update No. 21, Chronicles of the Continued Egyptian Revolution

of 25 January 2011”, 2 August 2013. See also “Factbox: 189 killed in post-30 June violence”,

Egypt Independent, 23 July 2013.

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protests, it became clear that the security forces would need to disperse

the camps.

199. This dispersal took place on 14 August 2013, and resulted in the death

of hundreds. The context of this dispersal is set out below.

4.2 Provocation of security forces

4.2.1 Inciting violence

200. For many Egyptians, the ousting of President Morsi and the

installation of an interim government, represented a new page in Egypt

with many abandoning the streets on 3 July 2013.268

201. However, for the Muslim Brotherhood, their rhetoric for violence and

attacks against the “enemies of Islam” escalated,269 with enemies being

made of all groups that did not agree with the Muslim Brotherhood.270

202. Immediately following the appointment of interim President Adly

Mansour on 4 July 2013, the Muslim Brotherhood convened a meeting at

Rabaa Adawiya mosque for the National Alliance to Support Legitimacy,

268 Serageldin, I., “Egypt’s Ongoing Revolution – Part II: On Violence and the Path Ahead”,

Ismail Serageldin, 27 July 2013. 269 Serageldin, I., “Egypt’s Ongoing Revolution – Part II: On Violence and the Path Ahead”,

Ismail Serageldin, 27 July 2013. 270 Serageldin, I., “Egypt’s Ongoing Revolution – Part II: On Violence and the Path Ahead”,

Ismail Serageldin, 27 July 2013.

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a coalition led by the Muslim Brotherhood.271 This was followed by a

press-conference, in which the Muslim Brotherhood-led coalition called

for a day of nationwide protests, which it dubbed as the “Friday of

Rage”.272

203. The protests were scheduled to take place the following day on 5 July

2013, to reject the appointment of an interim government and removal of

Mohamed Morsi. 273

204. At the time, Gehad al-Haddad, a spokesperson for the Muslim

Brotherhood, stated that the mass rally was, “to take all peaceful steps

necessary to bring down this coup.”274 Moreover, Ahmed Ahref, Media

spokesperson for the Muslim Brotherhood, stated that the group was fully

committed to peaceful demonstrations and restraint and would not be

drawn into violence.275

205. Both statements were part of the Muslim Brotherhood’s initial attempts

to maintain a level of plausible deniability, claiming that it had no control

271 “Islamist alliance maintains Morsi is Egypt's legitimate president”, Ahram Online, 4 July

2013. 272 “Gallery: ‘Friday of Rage’ protests in Egypt”, Global News, 5 July 2013. See also Kingsley,

P. and Chulov, M., “Morsi supporters prepare to defend themselves as tide turns in Egypt”

The Guardian, 4 July 2013. See also “Egypt Islamists call for “Friday of rejection” against

coup”, Reuters, 4 July 2013, @Ikhwanweb, Twitter, 4 July 2013. 273 “Islamist alliance maintains Morsi is Egypt's legitimate president”, Ahram Online, 4 July

2013. 274 Chulov, M. & Kingsley, P., “Egypt prepares for backlash as Morsi allies reject new regime,”

The Guardian, 4 July 2013. 275 “Ahmed Aref: Muslim Brotherhood Committed to Peaceful Protest, Self-Restraint”, FJP

online, 4 July 2013. See also, @Ikhwanweb, Twitter, 4 July 2013.

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over the “anticoup” offshoots that organized violent attacks against the

security forces.276

206. However, its efforts to do so were soon in vain and by the following

day, it was clear that senior members of the Muslim Brotherhood were

engaging in speeches inciting violence and jihad against the armed

forces.277

207. For example, at the time of the call for the “Friday of Rage”, Mohamed

el-Beltagy stated that Morsi's overthrow would push groups to violent

resistance, though not his own, to violent resistance.278 However, on the

day itself, 5 July 2013, another senior Muslim Brotherhood member,

Mohamed Badie, told the rally outside Rabaa Square that the Muslim

Brotherhood would “sacrifice ourselves, our souls and our blood, for

president Morsi.”279 Furthermore, by 8 July 2013, el-Beltagy had threatened

that the violence and state of emergency in Sinai would not end until

Morsi was returned.280

276 Trager, E. and Shalabi, M., “Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood Gets a Facelift”, Foreign Policy,

20 May 2015. 277 NCHR, Findings of Fact-finding Report issued by the Independent National Commission

on Events Concurrent with 30 June 2013, annex entitled “Nadha Sit-in Events”, 11 March

2014. 278 “Egypt ‘coup’ will push some groups to violence, says Brotherhood’s Beltagy”, Ahram

Online, 4 July 2013. 279 Stainburn, S., “Egypt: Mohammed Badie urges crowd to sacrifice ‘our souls and our

blood’ for Morsi”, Global Post, 5 July 2013. 280 “Leader of Brotherhood Beltagy on events in Sinai as response to military coup which

would end as soon as Morsi returned”, Al-Nahr TV, uploaded on YouTube on 8 July 2013.

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208. Moreover, Morsi’s speeches on 2 and 3 July 2013 had threatened

violent conflict in the event of an attempt to remove him. He had said, “if

the price of protecting legitimacy is my blood, I’m willing to pay it”281 and

that he was prepared to, “die standing like a tree.”282

209. Similarly, one of Morsi’s spokesmen had warned that there would be

considerable bloodshed,283 whilst Mohamed el-Beltagy, amongst others,

had said, “seeking martyrdom” was the only choice.284

210. As stages were erected in al-Nadha Square and Rabaa Square, other

senior members of the Muslim Brotherhood took to publically invoking a

promise of martyrdom in return for fighting for the return of Morsi and

urging pro-Morsi supporters to remain in the camps at all costs.285 These

members included, inter alia, Esam al-Arian, Mohamed Badie, as well as

high-profile Islamic militants such as Asem Abdul Maged. 286

211. The speeches were broadcasted over loud speakers throughout both

camps. 287 Moreover, pro-Morsi supporters took to disseminating the

281 Kirkpatrick, D. and Hubbard, B., “Morsi Defies Egypt Army’s Ultimatum to Bend to

Protest”, New York Times, 2 July 2013. 282 Perry, T., “Mursi thinks better to “die standing like tree” – aide”, Reuters, 3 July 2013. 283 Kingsley, P. and Chulov, M., “Mohamed Morsi ousted in Egypt's second revolution in two

years”, The Guardian, 4 July 2014. 284 Kirkpatrick, D. & Fahim, K., “Depths of Discontent threaten Muslim Brotherhood and Its

Leader”, New York Times, 2 July 2013. 285 “Pro-Morsi Wahhabis Vow to Suicide Bomb Everyone Opposed to Them & to Set

Christians on Fire”, uploaded on YouTube on 4 July 2013. 286 “Jama'a al-Islamiya leader: We will fight to defend Morsy”, Egypt Independent, 11 July

2013. 287 Klein, G., “Cairo Islamist camp angers residents”, Your Middle East, 21 July 2013.

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speeches on Muslim Brotherhood-sponsored media stations in an effort to

rally its members.288 For example, on 8 July 2013, the Muslim Brotherhood

issued the following statement on its Facebook page:

“(The Freedom and Justice Party) call[ed] on the great Egyptian

people to rise up against those who want to steal their

revolution with tanks and armoured vehicles, even over the

dead bodies of the people.”289

212. The calls for violence continued throughout July 2013 and up until the

dispersal of the two camps on 14 August 2013.

213. For the Muslim Brotherhood, the calls for an uprising would

necessarily lead to chaos and instability in the nation and thereby restore

political power to the group.290

214. Consequently, the calls for violence coincided with various attacks

made against military and police personnel and infrastructure.

288 Serageldin, I., “Egypt’s Ongoing Revolution – Part II: On Violence and the Path Ahead”,

Ismail Serageldin, 27 July 2013. 289 “Muslim Brotherhood calls for uprising after Cairo ‘massacre’”, Channel 4 News, 8 July

2013. 290 Booth, W. et al., “Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood calls for ‘uprising’ after troops shoot

protesters”, Washington Post, 8 July 2013. Booth, W. et al., “Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood

calls for ‘uprising’ after troops shoot protesters”, Washington Post, 8 July 2013.

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4.2.2 Attacks against security forces

215. In the knowledge that the international media was focused on Egypt,

pro-Morsi protesters attempted to goad the security forces into action,

thereby causing further chaos and destruction across the country.291

216. Their efforts began with organized protests planned to coincide with

anti-Morsi supporters.292 Once military or police presence was secured,

pro-Morsi protesters launched vicious attacks against security forces.293

217. These attacks occurred as an immediate response to the appointment

of the interim government. For example, on 4 July 2013, pro-Morsi

supporters were seen carrying improvised clubs and shields as they guard

the main entrances to Rabaa Square, 294 with piled stones for use as

weapons nearby. 295 As protesters marched through the streets in

Damanhour and in Beni Suef, some protesters were reported to have

stormed the governorate building.296 Similarly, on the same day, pro-Morsi

291 “The world is watching Egypt”, DW News, 4 July 2013. 292 El-Deeb, S., “Egypt military warns against violent protests”, AP, 18 July 2013. 293 “Egypt promises action against pro-Morsi protesters as death toll climbs”, AP, 28 July

2013. 294 Chulov, M. & Kingsley, P., “Egypt prepares for backlash as Morsi allies reject new regime,”

The Guardian, 4 July 2013. 295 Kingsley, P. and Chulov, M., “Morsi supporters prepare to defend themselves as tide turns

in Egypt” The Guardian, 4 July 2013. 296 “Thousands call for Morsi's return to power in Beni Suef, Beheira”, Ahram Online, 4 July

2013. See also, Stack, L. & el-Naggar, M., “Latest Updates on Egypt’s Transition”, New York

Times, 4 July 2013.

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supporters were reported to have attacked soldiers near Cairo

University.297

218. On 5 July 2013, following the call for the “Friday of Rage”, rival rallies

took place across Egypt. In Cairo, pro-Morsi protesters rallied outside

Rabaa Mosque, as well as near Al-Azhar, on Salah Salem and on Sixth of

October Bridge.298 Rallies were reported in Alminya and Alexandria.299 On

that same day, around thousands of pro-Morsi protesters demonstrated

outside the Republican Guard Headquarters.300

219. As they approached the Republican Guard Headquarters, pro-Morsi

protesters were verbally warned not to cross the road in front of the

building. 301 Ignoring this warning, pro-Morsi supporters congregated

outside the headquarters of the Republican Guard and began to tear

fences down,302 vowing to remain there until Morsi was re-instated.303

297 Stack, L. & el-Naggar, M., “Latest Updates on Egypt’s Transition”, New York Times, 4 July

2013. 298 “Egypt’s ‘day of rejection’ - Friday 5 July as it happened,” The Guardian, 5 July 2013. 299 “Egypt’s ‘day of rejection’ - Friday 5 July as it happened,” The Guardian, 5 July 2013. 300 “Pro-Mursi protesters killed as interim president dissolves Shura Council”, Asharq al-

Awsat, 5 July 2013. 301 “Pro-Morsi protest in Egypt: LIVE UPDATES & VIDEO”, Sputnik News, 5 July 2013. 302 “Armed Forces released video of events at Republican Guard”, Akbar Al-Youm TV,

uploaded on YouTube on 8 July 2013. 303 Case No. 9134/2013 Misdemeanour, Misr al-Gadida/Heliopolis police station. See also,

“Report on events of Rabaa and Nadha”, Egyptian Ministry of Interior, available at Al

Bawabh News, 14 August 2014.

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220. This resulted in violent clashes between pro-Morsi protesters and

security forces, 304 with five reported fatalities. 305 An army spokesman

confirmed only blank rounds and tear gas were used by the army.306

221. That same day on 5 July 2013, pro-Morsi protesters marched across the

6th October Bridge to try to enter Tahrir Square, where anti-Morsi

protesters were holding mass rallies. 307 Chaotic street battles broke out,

with combatants using rocks, sticks, fireworks and Molotov cocktails, until

armoured vehicles with riot police officers were deployed to restore

order.308

222. Within days of the storming of the Republican Guard Headquarters, on

8 July 2013, violence again broke out around the Republican Guard

Headquarters. Armed groups began to attack the perimeters around the

Republican Guard Headquarters, with military and police targeted by live

ammunition.309

304 “Aerial shots of events at the Republican Guard and the involvement of Muslim

Brotherhood”, Al- Bilad, uploaded on YouTube on 8 July 2013. 305 NCHR, Findings of Fact-finding Report issued by the Independent National Commission

on Events Concurrent with 30 June 2013, 11 March 2014. 306 “Army did not fire on pro-Mursi protesters – spokesman”, Reuters, 5 July 2013. 307 Hubbard, B., “Mayhem in Cairo as Morsi Backers Fight for Return”, The New York Times,

5 July 2013. 308 Hubbard, B., “Mayhem in Cairo as Morsi Backers Fight for Return”, The New York Times,

5 July 2013. 309 Owen, P. and McCarthy, T., “Egypt: 51 Morsi supporters killed in shooting at Republican

Guard compound – as it happened”, The Guardian, 8 July 2013. See also “At Least 51 Killed

in Egypt as Tensions Soar”, VOA News, 8 July 2013.

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223. At the same time, pro-Morsi protesters started to climb up the

buildings nearby and throw stones, Molotov cocktails, bombs and heavy

objects, with reports of shots fired from the rooftops at the military

compound.310 The clashes left at least 54 people dead, including 3 members

of the security forces.311

224. On 24 July 2013, pro-Morsi protesters were responsible for an

explosion outside a police building in Mansoura, killing one police

conscript and injuring 19 officers.312 This was followed by violent clashes

between pro-Morsi and anti-Morsi supporters on 26 July 2013 across Cairo

and Alexandria. 313 As the army sought to restore order and disperse

crowds with the use of tear gas,314 it was itself subject to attack from pro-

Morsi supporters.315

225. By 30 July 2013, similar attacks against security forces had erupted

across Egypt. Buoyed by the swell of protestors at the camps, clashes

310 Findings of Fact-finding Report issued by the Independent National Commission on

Events Concurrent with 30 June 2013, December 2014. See also, “Report on events of Rabaa

and Nadha”, Egyptian Ministry of Interior, available at AlBawabh News, 14 August 2014. 311 “Egypt: 51 Morsi supporters killed in shooting at Republican Guard compound – as it

happened”, The Guardian, 8 July 2013. 312 “Egyptian general calls for millions to protest against ‘terrorism’,” The Guardian, 24 July

2013. 313 Siddique, H. and Quinn, B., “Egypt: Deaths as rival rallies clash - As it happened”, The

Guardian, 26 July 2013. 314 “Clashes, helicopters, tear gas as tens of thousands take to streets of Egypt”, RT, 26 July

2013. See also, el-Deeb, S., “Two killed in Egypt as supporters and opponents of ousted

president clash in Alexandria”, National Post, 26 July 2013. 315 NCHR, Findings of Fact-finding Report issued by the Independent National Commission

on Events Concurrent with 30 June 2013, 11 March 2014, annex entitled “Al Nasr Road

Events”.

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broke out in Ismailia on 30 July 2013, with 17 people injured.316 Another

attack in Rafah, North Sinai, on 30 July 2013, led to the death of 22-year-

old Army conscript Mohamed Mahmoud Ali, killed by a shot to the head.

The attack left eight others injured.317

226. These attacks were not one-off events but rather part of the Muslim

Brotherhood’s schematic plan targeting military and police structures. The

Ministry of Interior had already announced that it had intercepted phone

calls from leading members of the Muslim Brotherhood who had

instructed their supporters to stage attacks on police stations.318

227. In total, 317 police officers were killed by pro-Morsi protestors from

the start of the sit-ins. 319 Indeed, immediately following the dispersal of

the sit-ins on 14 August 2013, heavily armed Muslim Brotherhood

protestors stormed a police station in Kerdasa, torturing and killing 14

police officers.320

228. The calls for violence were not only launched to target security forces.

Hate speeches advocating for sectarian violence were rife amongst pro-

316 “Pro and anti-Mursi clashes leave 17 injured in Ismailiya”, Aswat Masriya, 30 July 2013. 317 “More Bodies Found Near Raba’a al-Adaweya | Leaders of Wasat Party Arrested”, Tahrir

Institute for Middle East Policy, 29 July 2013. 318 “State of Emergency declared in Egypt to Foil NATO-Backed Subversion”, NSNBC, 14

August 2013. 319 NCHR, Findings of Fact-finding Report issued by the Independent National Commission

on Events Concurrent with 30 June 2013, 11 March 2014, page 25. See also, “Report on events

of Rabaa and Nadha”, Egyptian Ministry of Interior, available at AlBawabh News, 14 August

2014. 320 “Egypt refers 188 to court over Kerdasa police killings”, Ahram Online, 13 February 2014.

See also “Muslim Brotherhood massacre in Kerdasa Police Station”, CNN, 15 August 2014.

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Morsi protests.321 As the protests swelled in Cairo, Christian sects saw a

spike in the number of retaliatory attacks on over eighty churches across

the country.322 As a result of such speeches, over 52 churches in Cairo were

subject to arson attacks with 12 other churches looted.323 There was also a

rise in kidnappings of Coptic Christians with over 140 reported

kidnappings between 2011 and 2013.324

4.3 Conditions at al-Nahda Square and Rabaa Square prior to 14 August

2013

4.3.1 Disruption to local residents

229. As discussed above, following the ousting of Mohamed Morsi on 3 July

2013, Muslim Brotherhood supporters descended upon al-Nahda Square

and Rabaa Square.

230. Early on, the Muslim Brotherhood had announced their plans to move

pro-Morsi protests into provocative spaces such as Tahrir Square, a square

synonymous with public demonstrations in Egyptian history.325 However,

finding resistance in Tahrir Square, the organization settled on Rabaa

Square and al-Nadha Square.

321 Kingsley, P., “Egypt's Rabaa massacre: one year on”, The Guardian, 16 August 2014. 322 Kingsley, P., “Egypt's Rabaa massacre: one year on”, The Guardian, 16 August 2014. 323 “Fire at Evangelical church in Bani Mazaar”, Al-Balad, uploaded on YouTube on 18

August 2013. 324 “Egypt 2014 International Religious Freedom Report”, US State Department, 2014, p. 8. 325 Awad, M. and Kingsley, P., “Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood admits it has been negotiating

with army”, The Guardian, 14 July 2013.

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231. The two squares were by no means a second-rate choice. Indeed both

locations were chosen specifically in light of their centralized locality in

Cairo. In particular, Rabaa Square occupied a central location in Nasr City,

the largest district in Cairo.326

232. Following mass calls to join the Muslim Brotherhood demonstrations,

the camps at al-Nahda Square and Rabaa Square fast became the focal

point of an orchestrated mass sit-in.

233. By the third week, the crowds at Rabaa Square had reached thousands,

“swelling to tens of thousands when the Brotherhood calls special days

like Friday's ‘day of marching on.’” 327 Many of the area's temporary

residents were bused in to Rabaa Square from provinces outside Cairo,

receiving payment to occupy the squares.328

234. The disruptive effect on local residents was immense with many

describing the significant effect on their livelihood. 329 As the sit-ins

continued, pro-Morsi protesters began to occupy the squares on a twenty-

326 Dahir, A., “Rabaa al-Adawiyah: Images From the Square Before the Bloody Crackdown in

Egypt”, Sahan Journal, 16 August 2013. 327 Fick, M., “Gathering thousands, Egypt's Brotherhood shows passion and power”, Reuters,

12 July 2013. 328 Klein, G., “Cairo Islamist camp angers residents”, Your Middle East, 21 July 2013. 329 Klein, G., “Cairo Islamist camp angers residents”, Your Middle East, 21 July 2013 and

Eltantawi, S., “Day Eight in Cairo: On the Ethics of Waiting for a Massacre”, Contemplative

Yurt, 1 August 2013. See also Statement of the reported incidents that occurred in Rab’a,

Public Prosecution - East Cairo Plenary Prosecution – First Nasr City Area Prosecution, 2013,

also translated in English.

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four hour basis and soon enough, new infrastructures began to develop

within the camps.330

235. In particular, local residents complained of the imposition of new

checkpoints put in place by the Muslim Brotherhood protestors, and to

which the local residents were subject to.331 This subjected many residents

to unwarranted threats and intimidation in their own neighbourhood,

with many seeking temporary refuge elsewhere in the city.332

236. Other residents complained of the constant noise disruption and

blockages of main roads, which occurred for weeks on end. 333 In

particular, protesters were seen tearing up the concrete pavements in

order to create roadblocks.334

330 Klein, G., “Cairo Islamist camp angers residents”, Your Middle East, 21 July 2013. 331 Klein, G., “Cairo Islamist camp angers residents”, Your Middle East, 21 July 2013. 332 NCHR, Findings of Fact-finding Report issued by the Independent National Commission

on Events Concurrent with 30 June 2013, 11 March 2014, annex entitled “Republican Guard

House Events”. 333 Statement of the reported incidents that occurred in Rab’a, Public Prosecution - East Cairo

Plenary Prosecution – First Nasr City Area Prosecution, 2013, also translated in English. 334 “Pro-Morsy protesters place barriers on Nasr road”, Egypt Independent, 28 July 2013.

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Pro-Morsi supporters placed concrete blocks and stones in front of the memorial

service and Al-Azhar University gate

237. This resulted in huge traffic delays for local residents, with one

resident describing the harrowing impact this had on his elderly father’s

trip to the hospital to seek chemotherapy treatment. 335 Moreover,

ambulances seeking to assist local residents were hampered in their duties

by Muslim Brotherhood protestors.336

238. As new infrastructures and road blockages were erected, many of the

squares’ residents feared the Muslim Brotherhood protestors would

become a permanent fixture.337

335 Kingsley, P., “Egypt's Rabaa massacre: one year on”, The Guardian, 16 August 2014 and

Eltantawi, S., “Day Eight in Cairo: On the Ethics of Waiting for a Massacre”, Contemplative

Yurt, 1 August 2013. 336 Statement of the reported incidents that occurred in Rab’a, Public Prosecution - East Cairo

Plenary Prosecution – First Nasr City Area Prosecution, 2013, also translated in English. 337 Klein, G., “Cairo Islamist camp angers residents”, Your Middle East, 21 July 2013.

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4.3.2 Violence in the camps

239. The conditions at Rabaa Square and al-Nadha Square amounted to

more than just a nuisance. For ordinary Egyptians living in Cairo, the

camp at Rabaa Square, which blocked off major thoroughfares, had

become increasingly intimidating and disruptive as daily activities and

trips became impossible to carry out.338

240. The sit-ins fast became a flash-point for bloody confrontations and

violence,339 with local residents even forming an “SOS organization” to

document the criminal acts of destruction and terror perpetrated by pro-

Morsi supporters at Rabaa Square.340

241. During the forty-day sit-in at the camps, local residents filed hundreds

of complaints in relation to criminal activity committed by the Muslim

Brotherhood protestors.341 The wide-range of crimes reported including,

inter alia: (i) harassment;342 (ii) theft;343 (iii) destruction of public property;344

338 Kingsley, P., “Egypt's Rabaa massacre: one year on”, The Guardian, 16 August 2014. 339 Fahim, K. and Gladstone, R., “Egypt Vows to End Sit-Ins by Supporters of Deposed

President”, New York Times, 31 July 2013. See also Statement of the reported incidents that

occurred in Rab’a, Public Prosecution - East Cairo Plenary Prosecution – First Nasr City Area

Prosecution, 2013, also translated in English. 340 Official facebook page for SOS Organisation Rabaa. 341 NCHR, Findings of Fact-finding Report issued by the Independent National Commission

on Events Concurrent with 30 June 2013, 11 March 2014, p.9. See also, “Report on events of

Rabaa and Nadha”, Egyptian Ministry of Interior, available at AlBawabh News, 14 August

2014. 342 NCHR, Findings of Fact-finding Report issued by the Independent National Commission

on Events Concurrent with 30 June 2013, 11 March 2014, annex entitled “Nadha Sit-in

Events”. See also, “Report on events of Rabaa and Nadha”, Egyptian Ministry of Interior,

available at AlBawabh News, 14 August 2014.

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(iv) arson; 345 (v) possession of weapons; 346 (vi) kidnapping; 347 and (vii)

murder and attempted murder.348

242. Moreover, complaints reporting allegations of torture 349were prolific,

with protesters seemingly torturing anyone they suspected of being “an

agent or security personnel”, or anyone who expressed their displeasure

at the continued existence of the camps.350

343 NCHR, Findings of Fact-finding Report issued by the Independent National Commission

on Events Concurrent with 30 June 2013, 11 March 2014, annex entitled “Nadha Sit-in

Events”. See also, “Report on events of Rabaa and Nadha”, Egyptian Ministry of Interior,

available at AlBawabh News, 14 August 2014. 344 NCHR, Findings of Fact-finding Report issued by the Independent National Commission

on Events Concurrent with 30 June 2013, 11 March 2014, annex entitled “Nadha Sit-in

Events”. See also, “Report on events of Rabaa and Nadha”, Egyptian Ministry of Interior,

available at AlBawabh News, 14 August 2014. 345 NCHR, Findings of Fact-finding Report issued by the Independent National Commission

on Events Concurrent with 30 June 2013, 11 March 2014, annex entitled “Nadha Sit-in

Events”. See also, “Report on events of Rabaa and Nadha”, Egyptian Ministry of Interior,

available at AlBawabh News, 14 August 2014. 346 NCHR, Findings of Fact-finding Report issued by the Independent National Commission

on Events Concurrent with 30 June 2013, 11 March 2014, annex entitled “Nadha Sit-in

Events”. See also, “Report on events of Rabaa and Nadha”, Egyptian Ministry of Interior,

available at AlBawabh News, 14 August 2014. 347 NCHR, Findings of Fact-finding Report issued by the Independent National Commission

on Events Concurrent with 30 June 2013, 11 March 2014, annex entitled “Nadha Sit-in

Events”. See also, “Report on events of Rabaa and Nadha”, Egyptian Ministry of Interior,

available at AlBawabh News, 14 August 2014. and Kingsley, P., “Egypt's Rabaa massacre: one

year on”, The Guardian, 16 August 2014. 348 NCHR, Findings of Fact-finding Report issued by the Independent National Commission

on Events Concurrent with 30 June 2013, 11 March 2014, annex entitled “Nadha Sit-in

Events”. See also, “Report on events of Rabaa and Nadha”, Egyptian Ministry of Interior,

available at AlBawabh News, 14 August 2014 and Guirguis, D., “Brotherhood Violence,

Overshadowed”, Middle East Institute, 8 August 2013. 349 “Report on the events at Rabaa and Nadha”, Egyptian Ministry of Interior, available at

Albawabh News, 14 August 2014. 350 El-Behairy, N., “Ministry of Interior and army coordinating to disperse Rabaa protesters”,

Daily News Egypt, 27 July 2013 accessed at

http://www.dailynewsegypt.com/2013/07/27/ministry-of-interior-and-army-coordinating-to-

disperse-rabaa-protesters/

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243. For example, on 29 July 2013, an official security source stated that 11

dead bodies were found near the Rabaa Square sit-in with signs of

torture.351 Another ten people claimed to have been tortured in the sit-in

camp after being accused of being “infiltrators.”352

244. On 3 August 2013, Abdel Atty, a local resident in Nasr City, reported

that he had been tied up in a tent, blindfolded and bundled into a car by

pro-Morsi supporters at Rabaa Square, merely because he expressed

discontent at their presence.353

245. At al-Nahda Square, several journalists, amongst others, complained of

torture and mistreatment whilst attempting to cover reports on the

camp.354 Amnesty International also issued a report with testimonies from

local residents indicating that they were captured, beaten, given electric

shocks or stabbed by pro-Morsi protestors close to both rallies.355

351 “Eleven tortured bodies found near Islamists sit-in – source”, Aswat Masriya, 29 July 2013. 352 “More Bodies Found Near Raba’a al-Adaweya | Leaders of Wasat Party Arrested”, Tahrir

Institute for Middle East Policy, 29 July 2013. 353 “Fresh allegations of torture at pro-Morsy rallies”, Egypt Independent, 3 August 2013. 354 NCHR, Findings of Fact-finding Report issued by the Independent National Commission

on Events Concurrent with 30 June 2013, 11 March 2014, annex entitled “Nadha Sit-in

Events”. See also Guirguis, D., “Brotherhood Violence, Overshadowed”, Middle East

Institute, 8 August 2013. 355 “Fresh allegations of torture at pro-Morsy rallies”, Egypt Independent, 3 August 2013.

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246. As a result of these violent outbursts, local residents viewed the mass

sit-ins as an incubator for further extreme acts of violence, with many

describing them as no more than a “group of terrorists and fascists.”356

247. Faced with the increased threat to the security of its citizens and the

nation, the interim government was compelled to intervene.

4.4 Initial attempts to clear the camps using peaceful means

248. As the local residents struggled to go about their daily lives, their

tolerance of the camps began to wane. By the beginning of August 2013, it

became clear that the camps could no longer exist and that the continued

protests needed to end. The question was therefore whether the Muslim

Brotherhood would voluntarily agree to disband the camps in exchange

for political concessions.357

249. Given the alarming nature of the situation, the interim government had

from the outset, begun to engage in negotiations with various political

factions, including the Muslim Brotherhood, in an attempt to secure a

peaceful resolution.358

356 Kingsley, P., “Alaa al-Aswany on why he had to support Egypt's military crackdown”, The

Guardian, 29 October 2013. 357 Kingsley, P., “Egypt's Rabaa massacre: one year on”, The Guardian, 16 August 2014. 358 Awad, M. and Kingsley, P., “Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood admits it has been negotiating

with army”, The Guardian, 14 July 2013 and “Cairo crackdown follows failed negotiation”, Al

Jazeera, 14 August 2013.

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250. On 4 July 2013, Adly Mansour, on being sworn in as temporary

President, immediately made overtures to the Muslim Brotherhood,

providing,

“The Muslim Brotherhood group is part of this people and are

invited to participate in building the nation as nobody will be

excluded, and if they responded to the invitation, they will be

welcomed.”359

251. However, the Muslim Brotherhood responded, “unequivocally

reject[ing] the military coup against the elected President and the popular

will, and “refuse[d] to deal with the usurper regime.”360

252. Despite this cursory response and in the wake of the violent clashes on

8 July 2013, the information available reveals that the interim government

remained steadfast in its position to establish a viable political road map in

Egypt. 361 As confirmed by Gamal Heshmat, an official in the Muslim

Brotherhood's political wing, a key demand of the interim government

was that the Muslim Brotherhood cleared the camps so that further

political concessions could be made.362

359 “Egypt’s new president says Brotherhood ‘part of nation’: report”, Reuters, 4 July 2013. 360 @Ikhwanweb, Twitter, 4 July 2013. See also, Abouzeid, R., “The Muslim Brotherhood’s

Post-Coup World”, New Yorker, 4 July 2013. 361 “Egypt: 51 Morsi supporters killed in shooting at Republican Guard compound – as it

happened”, The Guardian, 8 July 2013. See also, “Constitutional Declaration of July 8, 2013 “,

WIPO. 362 Awad, M. and Kingsley, P., “Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood admits it has been negotiating

with army”, The Guardian, 14 July 2013.

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253. The efforts of the interim government to secure peace remained

unabated in the face of violent attacks against its security forces. On 24

July 2013, following an explosion outside a police station in Mansoura,

President Mansour continued to call for reconciliation talks with all

sides.363 Despite these efforts, the Muslim Brotherhood refused to attend,

pledging instead to maintain a disruptive street presence unless Morsi was

reinstalled as president.364

254. The Muslim Brotherhood’s refusal to cooperate did not mark the end

of the interim government’s efforts to restore peace and security amidst

the streets of Egypt.

255. On 5 July 2013, the military had already posted a statement on

Facebook, urging Egyptians not to heed any “invitations to gloat or seek

revenge.”365 Whilst it supported the right to peaceful protest the army

warned that violence and civil disobedience acts including the blocking of

roads would harm social peace, adding:366

“Freedom of expression is a right that everyone is entitled to,

[but] ‘unnecessary’ and ‘excessive’ exercise of this right may,

363 “Egyptian general calls for millions to protest against ‘terrorism’,” The Guardian, 24 July

2013. 364 “Egypt's army chief calls for show of support from citizens”, The Guardian, 24 July 2013. 365 Statement of official military spokesman, official facebook page of military spokesman, 4

July 2013. 366 Egypt: army insist they will allow ‘peaceful protest’ as supporters of President Mohamed

Morsi plan rallies, The Telegraph, 5 July 2013.

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“represent a threat to social peace and national interest and will

negatively impact security and economic performance of our

precious Egypt.”367

256. Affirming this position, interim President Mansour issued a public

statement in which he stated that the government, “cannot accept security

disorder, cutting roads and bridges, attacking public buildings. The state

has to impose order by all force and decisiveness.”368 In turn, the Minister

of Interior, Mohammed Ibrahim, said local residents had complained

about the sit-in protest by Morsi supporters at the Rabaa al-Adawiya

mosque in Cairo and that it would be “brought to an end soon and in a

legal manner” and had called on protesters “to come to their senses and

go home”.369

257. On 24 July 2013, the National Defence Council convened to discuss the

threat to the nation’s security following internal developments. It

subsequently issued a decision recognizing the need to protect the right to

freedom of expression whilst also protecting the security of the nation.370

367 Stack, L. & el-Naggar, M., “Latest Updates on Egypt’s Transition”, New York Times, 4 July

2013. See also Armed Forces Facebook page, 4 July 2013. 368 “At least 72 killed at pro-Morsi Cairo rallies”, Relief Web updates, 28 July 2013. 369 “Egypt crisis: Huge rival rallies as Morsi is accused”, BBC News, 27 July 2013. See also “At

least 72 killed at pro-Morsi Cairo rallies”, Relief Web updates, 28 July 2013. 370 NCHR, Findings of Fact-finding Report issued by the Independent National Commission

on Events Concurrent with 30 June 2013, 11 March 2014, annex entitled “Statement of

National Defence Council, 24 July 2013”.

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258. On 27 July 2013, the Egyptian Minister of Interior, issued a press

statement announcing “the police and the army were working in

coordination to discuss a suitable day for dispersing the two pro-Morsi sit-

ins, which hold tens of thousands of protesters.”371 In particular, he urged

the Muslim Brotherhood to stop its incitement of violence, to reopen

blocked roads, and to stop the killing and torture of “suspected spies”.372

259. Following the issuance of the press statement, the Minister of Interior

further convened a meeting with various civil society actors with a view to

discuss methods of peacefully ending the protests whilst in the knowledge

that some protesters were armed.373

260. Following the efforts of the Minister of Interior, armed forces arranged

for military aircrafts to drop flyers over the two camps on 29 July 2013,

stating, “[t]he recent events reveal that the country is being pushed into

chaos without regard to murder, violence or halting the means to normal

living, which is a matter the army is trying to prevent.”374

261. The army appealed to protesters not to be pushed into violence or

vandalism and urged pro-Morsi supporters to help the army maintain

371 “Pro-Morsi rallies no longer acceptable: Egyptian cabinet”, Ahram Online, 31 July 2013. 372 NCHR, Findings of Fact-finding Report issued by the Independent National Commission

on Events Concurrent with 30 June 2013, 11 March 2014, annex entitled “Statement of

National Defence Council, 24 July 2013”. 373 NCHR, Findings of Fact-finding Report issued by the Independent National Commission

on Events Concurrent with 30 June 2013, 11 March 2014, annex entitled “Statement of

National Defence Council, 24 July 2013”. 374 “Army throws flyers at pro-Mursi protesters”, Aswat Masriya, 30 July 2013.

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their security.375 The army's flyer called on everyone to cooperate and

respond to its instructions for the stability of the country.376

Army flyer thrown at protesters supporting deposed President Mohamed Mursi in

Rabaa al-Adawiya on Monday, July 29, 2013

262. On 31 July 2013, the office of the Public Prosecutor issued a decision in

which he called for police to take all legally required action to disperse

crowds at the camps and to investigate perpetrators of crimes alleged to

have been committed in the camps.377

263. In an attempt to further coerce protesters to leave the camps, on 31 July

2013, Egypt’s cabinet issued a warning that it would take “all legal

375 “Army throws flyers at pro-Mursi protesters”, Aswat Masriya, 30 July 2013. 376 “Army throws flyers at pro-Mursi protesters”, Aswat Masriya, 30 July 2013. 377 NCHR, Findings of Fact-finding Report issued by the Independent National Commission

on Events Concurrent with 30 June 2013, 11 March 2014, annex entitled “Statement of

National Defence Council, 24 July 2013”.

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measures necessary to confront acts of terrorism and road-blocking” and

announced that it “in preservation of the country’s highest interest”, it had

“delegated the interior ministry to proceed with all legal measures to

confront acts of terrorism and road-blocking.”378

264. Tasked with this responsibility, the following day, the Minister of

Interior urged protesters to return home, again guaranteeing safe passage,

including free transportation to the provinces, for all pro-Morsi supporters

in the hope that this would be an efficient and peaceful means to end the

camps.379

265. He repeated the same guarantee on 3 August 2013, wherein he again

undertook to provide safe and free passage out of the camp.380 At the same

time, this guarantee was widely disseminated in various media outlets

and a copy of the Minister’s statement was dropped over the camps by

helicopter.381

266. On 7 August 2013, the Minister of Interior again convened a press

conference in which he stated that he was tasked with dispersing camps

378 “Pro-Morsi rallies no longer acceptable: Egyptian cabinet”, Ahram Online, 31 July 2013 and

Fahim, K. and Gladstone, R., “Egypt Vows to End Sit-Ins by Supporters of Deposed

President”, New York Times, 31 July 2013. 379 Al-Atrush, S., “Egypt offers safe passage to Mursi supporters”, Arab News, 1 August 2013. 380 NCHR, Findings of Fact-finding Report issued by the Independent National Commission

on Events Concurrent with 30 June 2013, 11 March 2014, annex entitled “Statement of

National Defence Council, 24 July 2013”. 381 NCHR, Findings of Fact-finding Report issued by the Independent National Commission

on Events Concurrent with 30 June 2013, 11 March 2014, annex entitled “Statement of

National Defence Council, 24 July 2013”.

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and his intention to provide yet another opportunity for protesters to

voluntarily leave.382

267. Despite the efforts of the Minister of Interior and warnings from the

Cabinet, pro-Morsi supporters continued to ignore all such order.

268. By 13 August 2013, it became clear that security forces would need to

enter the camps the following day in order to secure clearance.

269. Faced with this task, the Minister of Interior embarked on a last ditch

attempt to ensure that pro-Morsi supporters would leave without

incident.

270. First, he met with several representatives from human rights groups to

invite them to observe the scheduled dispersal in order to guarantee that

international standards would be observed.383

271. Second, he once again ordered the military to disperse leaflets warning

the pro-Morsi supporters to clear the camp with immediate effective.384

382 NCHR, Findings of Fact-finding Report issued by the Independent National Commission

on Events Concurrent with 30 June 2013, 11 March 2014, annex entitled “Statement of

National Defence Council, 24 July 2013”. 383 NCHR, Findings of Fact-finding Report issued by the Independent National Commission

on Events Concurrent with 30 June 2013, 11 March 2014, page 10. 384 NCHR, Findings of Fact-finding Report issued by the Independent National Commission

on Events Concurrent with 30 June 2013, 11 March 2014, page 10.

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272. Third, he intentionally leaked the date and time of the dispersal to

various media outlets in the hope that the occupants of the camps would

leave before the scheduled time for dispersal.385

273. Finally, the Minister of Interior addressed the media and declared that

no weapons would be used against the protesters. He provided that only

tear gas would be used in order to disperse the crowds and that above all,

he wanted to avoid bloodshed.386

274. The Minister of Interior had exhausted all reasonable efforts to

encourage the protesters to return home.

4.5 Barricading the camps

275. Whilst Egyptian ministers strived to give fair and appropriate warning

to pro-Morsi supporters, the protestors were becoming more resilient,

arming themselves and fortifying the camps.387

276. Protestors at Rabaa Square were reported to have built three concrete

waist-high barriers, using sandbags, truck tyres and bricks.388 They were

385 NCHR, Findings of Fact-finding Report issued by the Independent National Commission

on Events Concurrent with 30 June 2013, 11 March 2014, page 14. 386 NCHR, Findings of Fact-finding Report issued by the Independent National Commission

on Events Concurrent with 30 June 2013, 11 March 2014. 387 NCHR, Findings of Fact-finding Report issued by the Independent National Commission

on Events Concurrent with 30 June 2013, 11 March 2014. See also “Morsi backers fortify Cairo

camps”, Evening Standard, 12 August 2013. 388 Batrway, A. and Michael, M., “Pro-Morsi sit-ins gain strength, prompt Egypt to postpone

dispersal to avoid bloodshed”, News1130, 11 August 2013.

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also seen pulling up the concrete streets in order to build fortifications

across major roads, including across the 12 lanes of Nasr Road leading into

to Rabaa Square.389 Local residents recall the area resembling a war zone,

complete with trenches and tanks.390

Pro-Morsi protesters place barriers on Nasr road, 28 July 2013

277. The fortifications were not built as a sole means of protection. Rather,

they were used to conceal a web of criminal activity. Behind the fortified

walls, footage revealed crates of homemade weapons and armed caches

stored by the Muslim Brotherhood in and around the squares.391

389 “Pro-Morsy protesters place barriers on Nasr road”, Egypt Independent, 28 July 2013. 390 Eltantawi, S., “Day Eight in Cairo: On the Ethics of Waiting for a Massacre”,

Contemplative Yurt, 1 August 2013. 391 El-Rashidi, Y., “Scenes from a Crackdown: What Really Happened in Cairo?”, NYR Daily,

11 September 2013. See also Police No. 12681 of 2013 report of the Giza Investigation General

Directorate, 15 August 2013. (link to dvd7 doc entitled nadha1 of batch received on 26

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278. Residents reported their gas supplies being siphoned off by protestors

and used in the creation of ‘Molotov cocktails’.392

279. Armed protestors were subsequently able to use the stored weapons in

gun openings built into the barricades,393 using them to launch offensives

against the police and local residences.394

Sand berms in front of Cairo University, with openings for shooting, 31 July 2013

October 2015); and “Report on events of Rabaa and Nadha”, Egyptian Ministry of Interior,

available at AlBawabh News, 14 August 2014. 392 “’Rabaa’ residents criticise pro-Morsi sit-in”, Ahram Online, 26 July 2013, uploaded on

YouTube on 26 July 2013. 393 “Sand berms in front of Cairo University, with openings for shooting”, Youm 7, 31 July

2013, uploaded on YouTube on 31 July 2013. See also, “Aerial shots to break up Rabaa Square

sit in and Morsi supporters firing on police”, Akhbar Al-Youm TV, uploaded on Youtube on

14 August 2013. 394 “Attack on police and destruction of property by members of the Brotherhood”, Hossam

Eldin Ali, uploaded on 27 July 2013.

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280. Indeed, following the dispersal of the camps on 14 August 2013, police

reportedly found hundreds of weapons including, inter alia, rifles,

machine guns and semi-automatic shotguns as well as homemade

weapons such slingshots and metal blades.395

4.6 Overview of the dispersal

281. Although much has been reported about the dispersal of the camps at

Rabaa Square and al-Nadha Square, there are a number of contradictory

accounts.

282. As a result, the following is intended to provide a brief overview of the

events on 14 August 2013 at the camps.

4.6.1 Rabaa Square dispersal

283. Whilst eyewitness accounts vary on details, it is widely reported that at

06:30 security services arrived at the Rabaa camp,396 using loud speakers to

call on protesters to leave the camps via clearly designated routes. For the

395 NCHR, Findings of Fact-finding Report issued by the Independent National Commission

on Events Concurrent with 30 June 2013, 11 March 2014, annex entitled “Memorandum

signed by Major General Tarek el-Gebily, CEO of Criminal Evidences, Minister of Interior,

Division of Public Security, General Administration of Inspecting Criminal Evidence, 26

August 2013”, pp. 16 to 21. See also, “Report on events of Rabaa and Nadha”, Egyptian

Ministry of Interior, available at AlBawabh News, 14 August 2014. and “Rabaa Square

protestor heavy weapons”, ERTU TV, uploaded on YouTube 5 September 2013. 396 “Report on events at Rabaa and Nadha”, Egyptian Ministry of Interior, available at

AlBawabh News, 14 August 2014.

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camp at Rabaa Square the exit was located via both the Nasr Street exit

and the el-Manasa exit.397

284. In particular, as shown in the following footage of Rabaa Square,

security forces noted that the dispersal was taking place by decree and in

full view of the media and international observers and thereby warned

against use of violence against security forces.398 Implementation orders

provided to the security forces, as well as the size of those participating in

the dispersal, were also published to ensure transparency of the

operation.399

285. As protestors ignored the warnings, security forces employed tear

gas, 400 as well water canons and from fire engines to disperse the

crowds.401

286. Armed with long-range acoustic devices, water and gas vehicles, police

forces began to spray the camp with tear gas.402 It is at this point that

397 NCHR, Findings of Fact-finding Report issued by the Independent National Commission

on Events Concurrent with 30 June 2013, 11 March 2014, page 10. See also “TV channel: More

than 20 bodies found below Rabaa Square's platform”, Aswat Masriya, 14 August 2013. See

also, “Rabaa al-Adaweya and Nahda Square sit-ins”, Cairo Post, 5 October 2013. 398 “Muslim Brotherhood Crimes –Egypt”, Al-Watan at 02:12 to 02:43 uploaded on YouTube

on 20 August 2013. 399 “Report on events at Rabaa and Nadha”, Egyptian Ministry of Interior, available at

AlBawabh News, 14 August 2014. 400 “As It happened: Egypt Camps Stormed”, BBC News, 17 August 2013. 401 Case No. 15899/2013, Report of the Nasr City First Police Station entitled “Dispersal of

Rab’a Square and relevant reports”, 2013, also translated in English. 402 NCHR, Findings of Fact-finding Report issued by the Independent National Commission

on Events Concurrent with 30 June 2013, 11 March 2014 page 10. See also Case No.

15899/2013, Report of the Nasr City First Police Station entitled “Dispersal of Rab’a Square

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gunfire is reported to have broken out from within the camp and

reportedly, from a building nearby where sixty snipers were subsequently

arrested.403

287. Within 30 minutes of their arrival, police reported that two police

officers had been shot resulting in one fatality, 404 as other unarmed

protestors were caught in the cross-fire between the police and snipers.405

Subsequently, matters quickly escalated at the camp with police and pro-

Morsi supporters both engaging in violent clashes.406

4.6.2 Al-Nadha Square dispersal

288. On 14 August 2013, security forces, including police and military

personnel, arrived at the camp al-Nadha Square shortly before 06:00.407

and relevant reports”, 2013, also translated in English and “Report on events of Rabaa and

Nadha”, Egyptian Ministry of Interior, available at AlBawabh News, 14 August 2014. 403 Recordings of special forces during Rabaa sit-in dispersal, Al-Watan, 14 August 2013,

uploaded on YouTube on 18 August 2013. 404 NCHR, Findings of Fact-finding Report issued by the Independent National Commission

on Events Concurrent with 30 June 2013, 11 March 2014, page 10. See also, “Report on events

of Rabaa and Nadha”, Egyptian Ministry of Interior, available at AlBawabh News, 14 August

2014. 405 NCHR, Findings of Fact-finding Report issued by the Independent National Commission

on Events Concurrent with 30 June 2013, 11 March 2014. 406 El-Rashidi, Y., “Scenes from a Crackdown: What Really Happened in Cairo?”, NYR Daily,

11 September 2013. For a list of injuries sustained by security forces see “Report on events of

Rabaa and Nadha”, Egyptian Ministry of Interior, available at AlBawabh News, 14 August

2014. 407 “Report on events of Rabaa and Nadha”, Egyptian Ministry of Interior, available at

AlBawabh News, 14 August 2014.

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Immediately upon arrival, security officers announced a call for

evacuation of the square.408

289. As with the dispersal at Rabaa Square, designated exits were clearly

announced to all protestors,409 with the identified safe exit located at al-

Gama’a Square towards Giza Square.410

290. Whilst some protesters began to leave, by 06:20 shots were being fired

at police officers from within the camps.411 Subsequently, various tents

were set alight.412

291. As part of this chaos, police officers were then fired at from snipers

located within the nearby Faculty of Engineering building. 413 Security

forces subsequently exchanged shots as violence descended throughout

the square.414

408 El-Rashidi, Y., “Scenes from a Crackdown: What Really Happened in Cairo?”, NYR Daily,

11 September 2013. 409 “Report on events of Rabaa and Nadha”, Egyptian Ministry of Interior, available at

AlBawabh News, 14 August 2014. 410 NCHR, Findings of Fact-finding Report issued by the Independent National Commission

on Events Concurrent with 30 June 2013, 11 March 2014, page 17. 411 “Report on events of Rabaa and Nadha”, Egyptian Ministry of Interior, available at

AlBawabh News, 14 August 2014. 412 NCHR, Findings of Fact-finding Report issued by the Independent National Commission

on Events Concurrent with 30 June 2013, 11 March 2014, page 17. 413 NCHR, Findings of Fact-finding Report issued by the Independent National Commission

on Events Concurrent with 30 June 2013, 11 March 2014, page 17. 414 NCHR, Findings of Fact-finding Report issued by the Independent National Commission

on Events Concurrent with 30 June 2013, 11 March 2014, page 17.

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292. The attack on police forces on 14 August 2013 was clearly pre-

arranged. As protestors gathered and stored weapons in the camps for

days on end, the opportunity to attack police officers presented itself.

Indeed, following the clashes on 14 August 2013, at least 200 pro-Morsi

protesters at al-Nadha Square and Rabaa Square were arrested for

possession of weapons.415

4.7 Use of force by security forces

293. As detailed above, the interim government had embarked on various

efforts to clear the camps and prevent confrontation between security

forces and the protesters. As pro-Morsi supporters defiantly flooded into

the two camps, it prompted police to postpone plans to move into the

squares as officials feared the possibility of causalities.416

294. However, as conditions in and around the camps invariably worsened

and the threat to security heightened, it became apparent that police

authorities would need to enter the camp in order to end the continued

stand-off.

415 Gayathri, A., “Egypt Security Forces Start Clearing Pro-Morsi Sit-Ins In Cairo; Casualties

Reported”, International Business Times, 14 August 2013 and el-Rashidi, Y., “Scenes from a

Crackdown: What Really Happened in Cairo?”, NYR Daily, 11 September 2013. 416 Batrway, A. and Michael, M., “Pro-Morsi sit-ins gain strength, prompt Egypt to postpone

dispersal to avoid bloodshed”, News1130, 11 August 2013.

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295. As a result of the dispersal efforts on 14 August 2013, the Ministry of

Health reported 632 casualties,417 including 8 police officers.418

296. With any major operation between armed protesters and security

forces, where causalities are inevitable, investigations into the cause of

casualties is standard.

297. On 21 December 2013, interim President Mansour issued a decree for

the establishment of an independent fact finding mission to be headed by

Dr. Fouad Abdel-Moneim Riad, 419 a former judge at the International

Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia. As part of its mandate, the

Independent National Commission was tasked with investigating events,

which occurred in connection with the ousting of former President

Morsi.420

298. The mission published its findings on 11 March 2014, although it

identified the Muslim Brotherhood’s refusal to cooperate with the

mission,421 and that, despite its best efforts to contact various members of

417 Taha, R., “NCHR releases full report on Rabaa sit-in dispersal”, Daily News Egypt, 17

March 2014 accessed at

http://www.dailynewsegypt.com/2014/03/17/nchr-releases-full-report-rabaa-sit-dispersal/ 418 NCHR, Findings of Fact-finding Report issued by the Independent National Commission

on Events Concurrent with 30 June 2013, 11 March 2014, page 12. 419 NCHR, Findings of Fact-finding Report issued by the Independent National Commission

on Events Concurrent with 30 June 2013, 11 March 2014. See also “Interior Ministry presents

evidence of Rabea dispersal to June 30 fact-finding committee”, Mada Masr, 21 August 2014. 420 NCHR, Findings of Fact-finding Report issued by the Independent National Commission

on Events Concurrent with 30 June 2013, 11 March 2014. 421 NCHR, Findings of Fact-finding Report issued by the Independent National Commission

on Events Concurrent with 30 June 2013, 11 March 2014. See also EIPR’s commentary on the

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the Muslim Brotherhood, including prominent figures Dr. Mohamed Ali

Bishr and Khairat Shater, it refused to engage with the mission.422

4.8 Conclusion

299. The Muslim Brotherhood’s response to the ousting of President Morsi

was a calculated manoeuvre. By engaging in acts of violence and civil

disobedience the Muslim Brotherhood sought to achieve two goals as part

of its overall plan to restore its grip on power in Egypt.

300. First, the Muslim Brotherhood sought to provoke violent clashes with

the security forces as part of a deliberate strategy to enhance their

martyrdom status, and to increase international attention and secure

worldwide sympathy and support.423

301. Second, the Muslim Brotherhood sought to use violence as a means to

disrupt the social and economic fabric in Egypt, in the hope that it would

regain power amidst the chaos created.424

presidential decree number 698/2013 creating “a national independent fact-finding

commission to gather information and evidence for the events that accompanied the June

30th, 2013 revolution and its repercussion.” EIPR, 22 January 2014. 422 NCHR, Findings of Fact-finding Report issued by the Independent National Commission

on Events Concurrent with 30 June 2013, 11 March 2014. 423 Bassiouni, M. C., “Egypt Update No. 21, Chronicles of the Continued Egyptian Revolution

of 25 January 2011”, 2 August 2013. 424 NCHR, Findings of Fact-finding Report issued by the Independent National Commission

on Events Concurrent with 30 June 2013, 11 March 2014, page 11.

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302. To an extent, the Muslim Brotherhood was successful in achieving

these two goals. It was able to create havoc and chaos throughout Egypt so

much so, that by 26 July 2013, hundreds of thousands of Egyptians staged

mass protests in support of an intervention from the army to restore peace

and security in the country.425

303. By 14 August 2013, it became clear that the security forces and interim

government had little choice but to restore security and order in Cairo by

dispersing the camps. In doing so, it demonstrably took all necessary steps

to ensure that any planned dispersal would be the most effective method

to avoid bloodshed. In contrast, there is no evidence to suggest that during

these plans for dispersal, an order for the use of force against protesters

was issued.

425 Siddique, H. and Quinn, M., “Egypt: Deaths as rival rallies clash - As it happened”, The

Guardian, 26 July 2013.

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CHAPTER 5

Comparison with other conflicts

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5.1 Introduction

304. As discussed in Chapter 4, Cairo residents were both intimidated and

angry at the presence of the protesters in Rabaa Square and al-Nahda

Square. Following the barricade of the camps, there was a swell of support

for the army to intervene and restore order.426

305. Moreover, the army was increasingly preoccupied with dealing with

the outbreak of terrorist attacks in Sinai and the prolific presence of Ansar

Bait al-Maqdis.427 At the same time, the army faced criticism from various

human rights groups for failing to protect religious minorities.428

306. For many, Egypt was now at a cross-road in which it could succumb to

extreme Islamist groups such as Da’esh (ISIS) who had a strong-hold in

neighbouring Libya and beyond.429

307. An understanding of the regional landscape at the time provides an

insight into the climate of fear in which average Egyptians saw themselves

and the pressing need for military intervention.

426 Fahim, K. and el-Sheikh, M., “Fierce and Swift Raids on Islamists Bring Sirens, Gunfire,

Then Screams”, New York Times, 14 August 2013. 427 See Chapter 2 above. See also "The Egyptian Experience of the Muslim Brotherhood in

Power 2012 – 2013”, 9 Bedford Row, 3 June 2015. 428 Goodenough, P., “Human Rights Groups Criticize Islamists for Inciting New Violence

Against Egypt’s Christians”, CNS News, 8 August 2013. 429 Eljarh, M., “A Snapshot of the Islamic State’s Libyan Stronghold”, Foreign Policy, 1 April

2015.

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5.2 Understanding Egypt in the Context of Libya and Syria

308. Egypt, Libya and Syria have traditionally held historical relations. This

is best exemplified by the Constitution of the Federation of Arab

Republics, agreed to by all three nations in 1971 in recognition of the

shared “common Arab fate”.430 Although the constitution did not enjoy

longevity, it does indicate the need for an understanding of the common

challenges faced by all three states in the regional and international

arenas.431

309. The 2011 Revolution in Egypt took place during a period in which

multiple countries in the Arab region witnessed large popular protests

calling for reform. In limited cases these protests were successful, such as

in the ousting of President Ben Ali in Tunisia.

310. However, for the most part, the so-called Arab Spring was far from a

success and, in particular for Libya and Syria, resulted in drawn out

bloody conflicts, which continue to this day.

311. The developments in 2012 and 2013 in Egypt must be understood in

the context of the tragic trajectories of the conflicts in Libya and Syria.

430 The Constitution of the Federation of Arab Republics (FAR), Middle East Journal Vol. 25,

No. 4 (Autumn, 1971), pp. 523-529. 431 “Egypt and Syria”, State Information Service, 9 January 2013.

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5.3 The Early Developments of the Conflicts in Libya and Syria

5.3.1 The Early Development of the Conflict in Libya

312. Mass uprisings in Libya began on 15 February 2011 in the city of

Benghazi,432 when anti-government protests evolved into violent attacks

on government buildings and security officials, which then turned into

full civil war.

313. The demonstrations had allegedly begun following the arrest of a

lawyer representing the relatives of prisoners killed in 1996 in the Abu

Salim Prison. 433 Reminiscent of the language adopted by pro-Morsi

supporters on 4 July 2013, the Libyan opposition protesters called for a

‘day of rage’,434 which was characterised by reports of the lynching of

security officials and the torching of municipal buildings.435 Subsequently,

senior Libyan government officials conceded that ‘protestors’ had seized

control of military bases, weapons, and tanks.436

314. The fact that the insurrection sprung up in eastern Libya was no

coincidence. As leaked cables from the US Embassy in Tripoli document,

432 “Libya profile – Timeline”, BBC News, 16 June 2015. 433 Black, I., “Libya cracks down on protesters after violent clashes in Benghazi”, The

Guardian, 17 February 2011. 434 Black, I., “Libya’s day of rage met by bullets and loyalists”, The Guardian, 17 February

2011. 435 Owen, P., et al., “Violence in Bahrain and Libya – Friday 18 February”, The Guardian

(Arab and Middle East unrest, News blog), 18 February 2011. 436 “Libya protests – as they happened”, The Guardian (Middle East and North Africa News

Blog), 20 February 2011.

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eastern Libya was “a locus of extremist activity” over which Libyan

government security services had little control.437 The cable details the

mass participation of eastern Libyans in insurgency operations in Libya

and Iraq.

315. The surge of Libyan recruits travelling to Iraq in 2007 and 2008 to fight

the US Occupation has been attributed to the Libyan Islamic Fighting

Group (LIFG).438 The LIFG was founded by veterans (‘mujahideen’) of the

war in Afghanistan, 439 and created to fight an ultimately unsuccessful

guerrilla insurgency in the 1990s against the Libyan government.440 In a

programme overseen by Saif al-Islam Gaddafi, 441 hundreds of LIFG

militants were rehabilitated and released from prison in 2008,442 2009 and

2010 after renouncing political violence and a commitment not to resume

extremist activities.443

316. However in February 2011, in a widely anticipated move, 444 the

released former LIFG members created the Islamic Movement for Change,

437 WikiLeaks Cable, “08TRIPOLI120, EXTREMISM IN EASTERN LIBYA”, US Embassy in

Tripoli, 15 February 2008. 438 Felter, J. & Fishman, B., “Al-Qa’ida’s Foreign Fighters in Iraq, a First Look at the SInjar

Records”, Harmony Project – Combating Terrorism Center at West Point, December 2007. 439 AKI, “Libya: Scores of prisoners released from jail”, Adnkronos, 9 April 2008. 440 WikiLeaks Cable, “08TRIPOLI430, DIE HARD IN DERNA”, US Embassy in Tripoli, 2 June

2008. 441 Wikileaks Cable, “09TRIPOLI148, LATEST ROUND OF TALKS WITH IMPRISONED LIFG

MEMBERS”, US Embassy in Tripoli, 22 January 2009. 442 WikiLeaks Cable, “09TRIPOLI1030, LIBYA: 2009 COUNTRY REPORTS ON TERRORISM”,

US Embassy in Tripoli, 22 December 2009. 443 Sarrar, S., “Ex-Islamists walk free from Libyan jail”, Reuters, 1 September 2010. 444 “Factbox: Key political risks to watch in Libya”, Reuters, 18 february 2011 and Stewart, S.,

“Jihadist Opportunities in Libya”, STRATFOR, 24 February 2011.

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which joined the insurrection and called for international military

intervention.445

317. The insurrection, with support from Qatar and NATO following

Security Council Resolution 1973,446 turned into a bloody civil war which

destroyed the Libyan state and left the country riddled with militias and

terrorists.447 The former head of the LIFG,448 Abdelhakim Belhadj, became

the commander of the Tripoli Military Council following the fall of Tripoli,

and has reportedly joined ISIS in Libya and is leading its forces.449

318. Notably, it is reported that the conflict – and the consequent death and

destruction – could have been avoided if the Libyan military had been

allowed to execute its offensive in February 2011, 450 which had been

mislabelled as an impending massacre.451

319. To date, Libya is considered to be a failed state, with weapons pouring

out and extremists tumbling in. 452 ISIS and other jihadi groups have

emerged and taken control over various cities in Libya, including Sirte

445 Black, I., “The Libyan Islamic Fighting Group – from al-Qaida to the Arab Spring”, The

Guardian, 5 September 2011. 446 UN Security Council, Resolution 1973 (2011), S/RES/1973, 17 March 2011. 447 Kuperman, A., “Obama’s Libya Debacle”, Foreign Affairs, March/April 2015. 448 “Libya’s Election: The Right Direction”, The Economist, 30 June 2012. 449 Shideler, K., “U.S. backed rebel reportedly leads Islamic State in Libya”, The Washington

Times, 3 March 2015. 450 Kuperman, A., “A Model Humanitarian Intervention? Reassessing NATO’s Libya

Campaign”, International Security, Summer 2013. 451 Roberts, H., “Who said Gaddafi had to go?”, London Review of Books, 17 November 2011. 452 Cafiero, G. and Wagner, D., “Four Years After Gaddafi, Libya Is a Failed State”, Foreign

Policy In Focus, 6 April 2015.

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which holds 80 percent of Libya's recoverable oil reserves.453 A further fifty

percent of territory in Libya is controlled by various militia groups,

including Ansar al-Sharia, an Islamist militant group.454

BBC depiction of Libya’s rival power bases455

5.3.2 The Early Development of the Conflict in Syria

320. The conflict in Syria began in January 2011 in the southern city of

Daraa when anti-government protestors clashed with police,456 claiming

the lives of seven police and four protestors.457 By March 2011, the protests

453 "Will ISIS’s foothold in Libya stay a ‘transit station’ or expand?”, RT, 1 April 2015. 454 “Libya's Islamist Militias Claim Control of Tripoli”, 24 August 2014. See also Irshaid, F.,

“Profile: Libya's Ansar al-Sharia”, BBC News, 13 June 2014. 455 Jawad, R., “Libya death sentences cast long shadow over rule of law”, BBC News, 12

August 2015. 456 “Thousands march in southern Syrian town”, Ya Libnan, 21 March 2011. 457 Kahn, G., “Syria: Seven Police Killed, Buildings Torched in Protests”, Israel National News,

21 March 2011.

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grew both in Daraa and across the country,458 government buildings were

torched, 459 and masked gunmen were filmed firing on police and

protestors.460461 As a result, the Syrian government expanded the use of

deadly force to break up the protests.462

321. Shortly after, opposition groups – including the Syrian Muslim

Brotherhood463 – called for the ousting of President al-Assad,464 and later

for military intervention to accomplish this. 465 In addition to masked

gunmen at protests, the Syrian military was now also engaged in large-

scale battles with rebels, resulting in hundreds of casualties.466

322. However, the presence of non-State armed groups in Syria, including

radical Islamists groups, had long pre-dated the 2011 protests.

323. Confidential cables from the US Embassy in Damascus reveal a range

of incidents:

458 Oweis, K. & Al-Khalidi, S., “Pro-democracy protests sweep Syria, 22 killed”, Reuters, 8

April 2011. 459 Al-Khalidi, S., “Syria protestors torch party outpost, smash statue”, Reuters, 8 April 2011. 460 Karouny, M., “Syria TV airs footage of gunmen shooting in Deraa”, Reuters, 8 April 2011. 461 Heinrich, M., “AT least 10 killed in Deraa – Syria hospital source”, Reuters, 8 April 2011. 462 “In Syria, Crackdown After Protests”, The New York Times, 18 March 2011. 463 Malas, N., “Brotherhood Raises Syria Profile”, The Wall Street Journal, 17 May 2011. 464 Sly, L., “Syrian opposition calls for ouster of Assad”, The Washington Post, 2 June 2011. 465 Cameron-Moore, S., “Syrians would accept Turkish intervention: Brotherhood leader”,

Reuters, 17 November 2011. 466 Karouny, M., “Syria to send in army after 120 troops killed”, Reuters, 6 June 2011.

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i. Shoot-outs between security forces and an armed group

associated with al-Qai’da in southern Syria, near Daraa, in

2005;467

ii. Bombings of a Syrian government facility by Fatah al-Islam in

2008;468

iii. Dismissals of Sheikhs from positions in charitable Islamic

groups on suspicion of terrorist funding;469

iv. Syria was considered the entry point for “nearly 90% of

foreign terrorists (many of which transited through Egypt to

get to Syria470) in Iraq” in 2007,471 and was the operating base

for the Abu Ghadiya network that orchestrated the flow of

fighters, money, and weapons into Iraq;472

v. Uprisings of Islamists extremist prisoners inside Seidnaya

prison in 2008;473

vi. Cooperation between the Syrian and Iraqi governments on

addressing the cross-border problems of (Sunni) armed

extremists in 2009.474

467 WikiLeaks Cable, “05DAMASCUS6423, TWO MORE SHOOT-OUTS BETWEEN ARMED

ELEMENTS AND”, US Embassy in Damascus, 12 December 2005. 468 WikiLeaks Cable, “08DAMASCUS814, SARG LAUNCHES NEW PR CAMPAIGN

AGAINST ISLAMIC”, US Embassy in Damascus, 17 November 2008. 469 WikiLeaks Cable, “08DAMASCUS883, SARG DISMISSES SHEIKHS FROM LEADERSHIP

POSITION”, US Embassy in Damascus, 12 December 2005. 470 Felter, J. & Fishman, B., “Al-Qa’ida’s Foreign Fighters in Iraq, a First Look at the SInjar

Records”, Harmony Project – Combating Terrorism Center at West Point, December 2007 471 WikiLeaks Cable, “08DAMASCUS908, SYRIA: 2008 COUNTRY REPORT ON

TERRORISM”, US Embassy in Damascus, 29 December 2008. 472 Landay, J. & Youssef, N., “CIA led mystery Syria raid that killed terrorist leader”,

McClatchy DC, 27 October 2008. 473 WikiLeaks Cable, “08DAMASCUS885, VIOLENCE AND FIRE ERUPT AGAIN AT

SEIDNAYA/SAYDNADA”, US Embassy in Damascus, 15 December 2008.

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324. Once the protests in Syria had turned into an armed conflict, Syrian

rebels were in direct contact with apparent Islamist victors in Libya.475

Within months both foreign fighters476 – including members of al-Qai’da -

and weapons were flowing from Libya to Syria, using the established

transnational links (the so called ‘rat line’477) between Islamist extremists.478

325. Like Libya, Syria remains in conflict acting as a battleground for ISIS

militants.479 In June 2014, former UN Convoy to Syria, Lakhdar Brahimi,

predicted that Syria would become a failed state and that the conflict

would "blow up" and spread beyond Syria's borders.480

5.4 Spill over into Egypt

326. Given the existence of transnational networks of Islamist extremist

fighters, the developments in Libya and Syria warranted a legitimate fear

of spill over of fighters and weapons into Egypt.

474 Wikileaks Cable, “09DAMASCUS218, SYRIAN DELEGATION’S MISSION TO

BAGHDAD”, US Embassy in Damascus, 23 March 2009. 475 Sherlock, R., “Leading Libyan Islamist met Free Syrian Army opposition group”, The

Telegraph, 27 November 2011. 476 Kelley, M., “Al-Qaeda Jihadists Are The Best Fighters Among The Syria Rebels”, Business

Insider, 31 July 2012. 477 Hersh, S., “The Red Line and the Rat Line”, London Review of Books, 17 April 2014. 478 Kelley, M., “How US Ambassador Chris Stevens May Have Been Linked to Jihadist Rebels

in Syria”, Business Insider, 19 October 2012. 479 “Battle for Iraq and Syria in maps”, BBC News, 9 December 2015. 480 “Ex UN envoy predicts Syria will be 'failed state'”, BBC News, 8 June 2014.

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327. For example, even in the so-called success state of the Arab Spring,

Tunisia has had to deal with its own share of difficulties as a result of the

conflicts in Libya and Syria. For example, reports have shown that

militants returning home from the conflict in Syria have attempted to

blow-up various tourist hotspots. 481 The Tunisian government has further

dismantled a recruiting cell sending fighters to Libya.482

328. By comparison, concerns regarding the movement of arms and

militants are further compounded in Egypt, by the fact that it shares a

1,115km long border with Libya. 483 This is a porous border whereby

militant groups can easily transport weapons and fighters across from

Libya into Egypt.484

329. The threat of a spill over from Libya and Syria to Egypt was very much

real in 2013 and onwards. As a result of the power vacuum and excess of

arms on the streets of Libya, many weapons have been funnelled to

terrorist organisations in Sinai.485 For instance, in early 2014, a surface-to-

air missile obtained from Libya was used by militants to bring down an

Egyptian military helicopter in Sinai.486

481 Markey, P. & Amara, T., “Insight – Tunisia Islamists seek jihad in Syria with one eye on

home”, Reuters, 18 November 2013. 482 Reuters, “Tunisia dismantles jihadi recruiting cell for Libya’, Swiss Info, 17 March 2015. 483 “The World Factbook. Africa: Egypt”, Central Intelligence Agency. 484 Elmenshawy, M., “Bad Neighbor, Good Neighbor: Libya-Egypt Relations”, Middle East

Institute, 21 March 2014. 485 Elmenshawy, M., “Bad Neighbor, Good Neighbor: Libya-Egypt Relations”, Middle East

Institute, 21 March 2014. 486 Elmenshawy, M., “Bad Neighbor, Good Neighbor: Libya-Egypt Relations”, Middle East

Institute, 21 March 2014.

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330. Egyptian security reports have also indicated that a number of jihadists

and extremists involved in violence in Cairo were caught trying to escape

to Libya.487 Furthermore, Muhammed Jamal, leader of the UN-designated

terrorist group Muhammad Jamal Network, was arrested in Egypt having

established jihadist training camps in Libya.488

331. Similarly, as of December 2013, between 100 and 500 Egyptians had

reportedly travelled to Syria to join militant groups including ISIS and Al-

Nusra Front,489 with many arrested on terrorist charges upon their return

to Egypt.490

332. As a result, Egypt has undertaken a number of measures to secure

stability within its borders. This has included various initiatives to assist

Libya to control its borders and efforts to establish an international fund

tasked with the collection and storage of weapons in Libya in coordination

with the UN and Libya. 491 With regard to Syria, it has implemented

various policies to restrict the movement of Syrians into Egypt.492

487 Aman, A., “Egypt, Libya at odds over border control”, Al-Monitor, 11 March 2014. 488 “Muhammad Jamal Network (MJN) al-Qa’ida in Egypt Jamal Network”, Global Security.

See also Hassan, A., “One of us: the militant Egypt’s army fears the most”., Reuters, 16

October 2015. 489 “ICSR Insight: Up to 11,000 foreign fighters in Syria; steep rise among Western

Europeans”, ICSR, 17 December 2013. 490 “Egypt says arrested Nusra member returning from Syria”, World Bulletin, 21 December

2014. 491 Elmenshawy, M., “Bad Neighbor, Good Neighbor: Libya-Egypt Relations”, Middle East

Institute, 21 March 2014. 492 Sievers, M., “Questions About Egypt's Syria Policy”, Washington Institute, 12 January

2015. See also, Hadid, D., “Egypt puts travel restrictions on Syrians”, CNS News, 9 July 2013.

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5.5 Conclusion

333. The conflicts in Syria and Libya have proven to be a security nightmare

across the globe.493 Moreover, it has cost both countries billions in profit

and revenue, with unprecedented increase in unemployment levels.494 For

over four years, Egypt has not had to look far to be reminded of the

precarious nature of peace and the impending growth of terrorist activity.

334. At the time of the second revolution in 2013, Egyptians were

increasingly discontent with Morsi’s handling of the moribund economy,

fuel and food shortages, and lack of political opportunity.495

335. Initially the army was reluctant to intervene and as of at least May

2013, failed to show any willingness to steer the country.496 However, as

described in this report, the discontent quickly manifested itself into a

demand for the removal of the Muslim Brotherhood-led government

followed by violent clashes throughout the nation.

493 See for example, “Foreign militants of ISIL endanger world peace, security: UN chief”,

PressTV, 30 May 2015. See also, “Islamic State 'planning to use Libya as gateway to Europe'”,

The Telegraph, 17 February 2015. 494 Al-Zayat, M., “Inter-Arab relations after the revolutions in Egypt, Libya and Syria”, Al-

Arabiya, 19 May 2013. 495 Trager, E., “Egypt’s Summer of Discontent”, Washington Institute, 28 May 2013. See also

"The Egyptian Experience of the Muslim Brotherhood in Power 2012 – 2013”, 9 Bedford Row,

3 June 2015. 496 Trager, E., “Egypt’s Summer of Discontent”, Washington Institute, 28 May 2013.

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336. Reminded of the ill-fortune befallen in Syria, and in particular, Libya, it

was clear that order had to be restored in a country which is twice the size

of its neighbour and to prevent the onslaught of bloody civil war and

terrorist insurgency.

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CHAPTER 6

Conclusion

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6.1 The Impasse and People’s Revolution of 2013

337. Events in Egypt between late 2012 and the first half of 2013 plunged

the country into an economic, political and social crisis.

338. The ever-growing discontent with the Morsi and his Muslim

Brotherhood government brought Egyptians back onto the streets as they

had during the Revolution in 2011. In 2011 it was Mubarak who felt the ire

of the disillusioned and frustrated masses. In June 2013, it was Morsi’s

turn.

339. In his refusal to compromise, Morsi worsened the crisis bringing about

emergence of the Tamarod movement with the goal to bring about new

presidential elections and relieve the country of an economic mess and the

government’s unpopular policy of blanket Islamification across all aspects

of Egyptian life.

340. The demonstration that followed on 30 June 2013 has been described as

the biggest in the history of Egypt.497 Tamarod issued a statement on 1 July

2013 giving Morsi until 5 pm on 2 July to leave and pave the way for early

presidential elections, failing which it would bring the crowds back out,

march on more palaces and launch a campaign of “complete civil

disobedience”.498

497 Abdelhadi, M., “In Egypt, all eyes are on the army”, The Guardian, 3 July 2013. 498 “ElBaradei authorized as spokesman for Egypt’s anti-Morsi 30 June Front”, Ahram Online,

2 July 2013.

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341. Tamarod warned that the protests could drag the country into civil war

and called on the military and the police to clearly state their support for

the protesters.499 In response, Defence Minister al-Sisi, acting as part of a

broad coalition (discussed in Chapters 2 and 3) issued a statement, calling

on all political factions to reach consensus and that a proposed roadmap

for the future, “if the demands of the people are not realized” within 48

hours, would be implemented.

342. The response of Morsi to both the mass demonstrations and the army’s

ultimatum was a midnight speech which was immediately interpreted by

many as a coded message to Muslim Brotherhood activists to ‘unleash

war’ on their fellow Egyptians as “enemies of the true faith” and thus as

incitement to violence. 500

343. On the evening of 3 July 2013, several hours after the coalition’s

ultimatum to Morsi to solve the political crisis had passed without

agreement, al-Sisi announced the agreed roadmap to end “the state of

conflict and division”, the establishment of an interim government and

clearing the way for new elections as soon as possible.

344. Thousands of Muslim Brotherhood members, many armed with clubs

and helmets, had been camped in front of Raba’a al-Adaweya Mosque in

499 Egypt protests: army issues 48-hour ultimatum - as it happened, The Guardian, 1 July 2013.

See also “Is the clock ticking for Mursi? Opposition sets deadline for his ouster”, Al Arabiya

News, 1 July 2013. 500 Chulov, M. and Kingsley, P. “Egypt: President Morsi defiant as time runs out”, The

Guardian, 3 July 2013.

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anticipation of a battle to defend Morsi. 501 Street battles had occurred

between pro-Morsi and anti-Morsi,502 and on 3 July 2013 tanks and soldiers

were deployed to separate the pro- and anti-Morsi protesters, in

anticipation of further unrest.503

345. As discussed in Chapters 2 and 3 of this report, the events leading up

to 3 July 2013 reflect that an impromptu coalition of political and social

forces and the army collaborated to meet the demands of the Egyptian

people to remove Morsi once it became apparent that, despite efforts, the

Muslim Brotherhood government would not concede any power, and that

further delay risked increased fighting and possible civil war.504

6.2 Transition from Revolution to Stability

346. On the evening of 3 July 2013, the coalition, led by Defence Minister al-

Sisi, announced the agreed roadmap to end “the state of conflict and

division” and detailing the transition to new elections (see Chapter 3).

347. On 4 July 2013 Adli Mansour, the head of the Supreme Constitutional

Court of Egypt, was sworn in as interim president.

501 Kirkpatrick, D., “Egypt, Its Streets a Tinderbox, Braces for a Spark”, New York Times, 29

June 2013. See also Kirkpatrick, D.“By the Millions, Egyptians Seek Morsi’s Ouster”, New

York Times, 30 June 2013 and Putz, U., “Egypt Putsch: End of the Road for Muslim

Brotherhood”, Speigel Online International, 4 July 2013. 502 “Brotherhood firing weapons at people between cars”, Al-Dostor News, uploaded on

YouTube on 2 July 2013. 503 Bowen, J., @BowenBBC, Twitter, 3 July 2013. 504 “Prominent Egyptian Liberal Says He Sought West’s Support for Uprising”, New York

Times, 4 July 2013.

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348. On 8 July 2013 interim President Mansour issued a constitutional

declaration consisting of 33 articles, detailing the ‘roadmap’ to ensure an

orderly transition to a new, elected government. 505 The constitutional

declaration detailed the process by which a referendum on an amended

constitution as well as parliamentary and presidential elections would

take place.

349. The amended constitution was subsequently approved by 98.1% of

voters in a referendum in January 2014. 506 Those international actors

monitoring the referendum confirmed the official results were legitimate

and resulted from fair and transparent elections.507

350. In the presidential elections of May 2014, Defence Minister and former

army chief al-Sisi won in a landslide, receiving 96.9% of the votes with a

47.5% turnout.508

505 “Interim president issues constitutional declaration for transitional period”, Egyptian State

Information Service, 8 July 2013. 506 Reuters, “Egyptians overwhelmingly back constitution – official results”, Aswat Masriya,

18 January 2014. 507 Democracy International, “Egypt Constitutional Referendum Observation Report”, April

2014. 508 “Presidential Elections Monitoring – Egypt Votes 2014 – Official Results”, The Tahrir

Institute for Middle East Policy. Last accessed on 14 July 2015.

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6.3 Restoring Security and Order in the Streets of Cairo

351. While for most Egyptians, the ousting of Morsi and the roadmap for

new elections represented a new chapter for Egypt, the Muslim

Brotherhood escalated their calls for violence and attacks against the

“enemies of Islam”,509 with enemies being made of all groups that did not

agree with the Muslim Brotherhood.510

352. The Muslim Brotherhood chose the stage for their fight for the return

of Morsi in central Cairo, through mass sit-ins held at al-Nahda Square

and Rabaa al-Adawiya Square (hereinafter “Rabaa Square”).

353. As the mass sit-ins continued throughout July and into August, the

two camps became a direct threat to the safety of the local residents in

Cairo specifically and the security of Egypt generally.

354. Chapter 4 made clear the numerous attempts by Egyptian authorities

to use all efforts to secure a peaceful resolution to the protests. However, it

became obvious that the security forces would need to disperse the camps

to prevent further violence and restore a measure of normalcy and calm to

the nation, which had effectively been paralysed by the sit-ins.

509 Serageldin, I., “Egypt’s Ongoing Revolution – Part II: On Violence and the Path Ahead”,

Ismail Serageldin, 27 July 2013. 510 Serageldin, I., “Egypt’s Ongoing Revolution – Part II: On Violence and the Path Ahead”,

Ismail Serageldin, 27 July 2013.

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355. In the legitimate attempts to disperse the camps the security services

demonstrably took all necessary steps to ensure that any planned

dispersal would be the most effective method to avoid bloodshed.

Importantly, this report highlights the fact that there is no evidence,

despite reports to the contrary, to suggest that in effecting the plans for

dispersal there was an underlying plan or strategy to use deadly force

against protesters.

356. What happened in mid-August 2013 was chaotic. It involved many

protestors who were armed and aggressive. There were casualties and

mistakes were made during the chaos that ensued. And those responsible,

on both sides, must be held to account for any unlawful or

disproportionate use of force.

357. There was however no indication of any design or plan to use force

until such became necessary for the security of civilians and even then the

planned action was measured and restrained. Chapters 3 and 4 highlight

the fact that safe exit passages were created for protestors to leave

peacefully after negotiations failed.

358. In taking the actions that it did – participating in the removal of Morsi

and dispersing the camps in Cairo – the security services played their role

in protecting Egypt against the threat of the Muslim Brotherhood – a

threat which carried with it a promise of violence and possible civil war.