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A cast of Egyptian characters

Mohammed BadieLeader of the Muslim Brotherhood

Pope Shenuda IIILeader of the Coptic Church

Naguib MahfouzEgyptian novelist

Field Marshal TantawiChairman of the SCAF

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• 1952: Free Officers Coup; Muhammed Naguib is President• 1956: Aswan Dam plan/Nationalization of the Suez; Nasser becomes President• 1958-1961: United Arab Republic with Syria• 1967: 6-Day War; beginning of “state of emergency”• 1970: Death of Nasser; accession of Sadat (“Nasser’s poodle”)• 1973: War with Israel (“the crossing”)• 1974: Launch of economic restructuring “infitah”• 1977: Sadat visits Israel• 1979: Camp David Accords: peace with Israel, return of the Sinai, expulsion from

the Arab League• 1981: Assassination of Sadat; accession of Mubarak• mid-1980s: Wafd party competes in elections again; Muslim Brotherhood

unofficially competes; then increasing political closure• 1989: Egypt readmitted to the Arab League• 1991: Egypt fights against Iraq in the Gulf War• mid-1990s: Islamist revolt; attempts to bring down the government; assassination

attempt on Mubarak (1995)• 2004: Increasing, organized popular protest; renewal of Islamist attacks• 2005: first Presidential election installs Mubarak for a 5th term; parliamentary

elections give the Muslim Brotherhood a substantial minority position• 2006-2009: Internal debates over Mubarak’s successor; tightening up on reform• 2010: Parliamentary elections are widely seen as fraudulent; NDP dominates• 2011: President Mubarak ousted in a massive 18-day popular revolution

Timeline of key events in Egypt

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• Presidency– Source of most political power– Appoints executive cabinet– Hosni Mubarak was one of the longest serving world leaders (30 years)

• People’s Assembly (Majlis al-Sha’ab)– 454 members; drafts legislation in conjunction with the cabinet– Dominated by the President’s NDP party, with scattered representation from

independents and opposition parties

• Consultative Council (Majlis al-Shura)– Advisory body only; 1/3 appointed by the President

Governing structures under Mubarak

President Mubarak

Gamal Mubarak

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• Presidency– Source of most political power– Appoints executive cabinet– Hosni Mubarak was one of the longest serving world leaders (30 years)

• People’s Assembly (Majlis al-Sha’ab)– 454 members; drafts legislation in conjunction with the cabinet– Dominated by the President’s NDP party, with scattered representation from

independents and opposition parties

• Consultative Council (Majlis al-Shura)– Advisory body only; 1/3 appointed by the President

Governing structures under Mubarak

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• Economic policy– State-led development vs. Capitalism– Role of the infitah

• Poverty/Unemployment– State subsidies on employment and food – Massive underemployment and inequality

• Foreign policy– Cold war neutral (initial Nasserite position)– Pro-Soviet (1954-1971)– Pro-Western (1974-present)– At the center of the Arab-Israeli conflict

• Religion– Keeping Islamists out of the state– Keeping tensions between Muslims and Copts minimal

• Civil society– Limited freedom of the Media and organizations– Corruption issues

• Political stagnation and the possibility of protest

Key political issues

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• Patterns of political liberalization– Tradition of restricted political pluralism under the British/King Faruq– One-party state until Sadat legalized 3 parties in 1976

• National Democratic Party (NDP) as a centrist party; with two legal opposition parties on the center-right and center-left

– Mubarak expanded the number of legal parties to 13 in the 1980s

• Key political parties– National Democratic Party– Old opposition parties: New Wafd, Labor– Opposition parties are historically very weak and have a small political base

• Barriers to free competition– Structural barriers to participation– High levels of political apathy– Exclusion of parties based on class or religion– Muslim Brotherhood illegal, but participated as a collection of independents

Restricted political liberalization and political parties

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• The 2000 elections– The NDP did not do well, got under ½ of the seats– But those that did well as independents were friendly to the government and joined the

NDP in parliament, so the control of parliament was never in doubt– Muslim Brotherhood independents did very well, but ran in fewer constituencies

• The 2005 and 2007 elections– First presidential elections in 2005; Mubarak dominant; relatively low turnout– Increasing number of political protests – Appearance of new political movements and parties (Kifaya and al-Ghad)– Muslim Brotherhood is a scare for the regime in 2005, doing better than anticipated– Brotherhood increasingly excluded in the 2007 shura council elections

• How should we understand top-down political liberalization of Egypt?– Parliament has remained weak– Campaign issues have revolved around political process, not just distributive issues– What role has international pressure played?

Recent elections

Ayman Nour of al-Ghad

Kifayya protest

• The 2000 elections– The NDP did not do well, got under ½ of the seats– But those that did well as independents were friendly to the government and joined the

NDP in parliament, so the control of parliament was never in doubt– Muslim Brotherhood independents did very well, but ran in fewer constituencies

• The 2005 and 2007 elections– First presidential elections in 2005; Mubarak dominant; relatively low turnout– Increasing number of political protests – Appearance of new political movements and parties (Kifaya and al-Ghad)– Muslim Brotherhood is a scare for the regime in 2005, doing better than anticipated– Brotherhood increasingly excluded in the 2007 shura council elections

• How should we understand top-down political liberalization of Egypt?– Parliament has remained weak– Campaign issues have revolved around political process, not just distributive issues– What role has international pressure played?

Recent elections

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• Home of the Islamist movement– Home of the Muslim Brotherhood and Sayyid Qutb– Long tradition of Islamist opposition to the state– Also strong neo-Sufi movement going on these days

• The state under fire– Mid-1990s was the high point of Islamist radicalism– Al-Gama’a al-Islamiyya took over Imbaba and declared it an Islamic Republic– Islamist assassinations of prominent political and judicial officials– Attacks on intellectuals, writers, tourists– Massive state retaliation in the mid-1990s– Increasing state control over private mosques, prayer leaders (imams)

• Split in Islamist movements– Younger generation of Muslim Brotherhood split off and formed the al-Wasat (center)

party in 1996– Have constraints led to moderation? Is this a good outcome for the state?

Egyptian Islamists and the state

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• Context– National Democratic Party (NDP) dominates through managed electoral competition– Economic growth, then crisis, with rising prices– Military is popular but has entrenched economic interests

• Causes– Grievances

– Corruption amid economic expansion led to a 2-tier society– Stark lack of opportunity among educated youth– 2010 elections were too fraudulent, causing challengers to doubt participation

– Opportunities– Divisions and uncertainty over who would succeed the aging Mubarak– Collective network built around “kefaya” movement and 2004-2005 protests– Online protest networks: “April 6 Movement” and “We are all Khaled Said”– Tunisian example caught the public imagination

• Development– Gradual agreement to some political reforms as popular demands kept increasing– Attempts to use vigilantes to deter the protesters– Military strategy finally fails and key officers decide to sacrifice Mubarak– Cautious rule by military tribunal in preparation for elections (SCAF)– Continued popular protest against the slow pace of reforms and lack of accountability

Revolution and the potential for change in Egypt

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Egypt

Timeline:

Jan 25

1st “day of revolt”

Curfew broken; Mubarak dismisses govt.

Jan 26

Crackdown on protests

Jan 27

Military leaves protesters alone

Jan 28

VP Suleimanappointed

Jan 29

Protests build; el-Baradei returns

Jan 30

Mubarak says he’ll quit in Sept

Major clashes with riot police

Jan 28 Feb 1

Pro- vs. anti- Mubarak clashes.

Feb 2 Feb 5

NDP rulers resign; talks with opposition

Feb 11

Mubarak ousted