the demography of religious change in the west eric kaufmann birkbeck college, university of london...
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The Demography of Religious Change in the West
Eric Kaufmann Birkbeck College, University of London
Religion in the West
• Loss through secularization• Moderation of slide by resistant remnant,
notably fundamentalists• Gain through demography
Demography and Religion
• Indirect: poor, less educated and rural people have more children than urban, wealthy, educated
• Direct: Religious have more children than seculars; fundamentalists more than moderates
The Religious Tropics: Total Fertility Rates by Country, 2008
Source: CIA World Fact Book 2008
Indirect Effect: Expansion of Islam; Conversion Effect: Decline of Animists; Both: Decline of Seculars
Past and Projected Global Religious Affiliation (World Religious Database)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Christian Muslim Hindu Nonreligious +Atheist
Other
1900
1970
2000
2025
-16%
-14%
-12%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%-1.1%
-10.7%
-14.4%
-5.2%
Decline in Numbers of White British and Christians,
England and London, 2001-2011
-16%
-14%
-12%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%-1.1%
-10.7%
-14.4%
-5.2%
Decline in Numbers of White British and Christians,
England and London, 2001-2011
Direct Effect: Religiosity and Fertility in Europe and USA
TFR
Austria 2001 Switzerland 2000
Roman Catholics 1.32 1.41
Protestants 1.21 1.35Muslims 2.34 2.44Others 1.44 1.74Without 0.86 1.11Total 1.33 1.5
TFR Wrong Not wrong DiffHomosexuality 2.5 1.98 0.52Abortion 2.47 1.83 0.64
United States, 2006 (GSS)
Source: Goujon et al. 2006
Projected Nonreligious Population of Austria to 2051, 36 Scenarios
Similar Dynamics in USA
Religion in the West
• Loss through secularization• Moderation of slide by resistant remnant• Gain through demography
– Indirect through global migration– Direct, through higher fertility
• Fundamentalists maximize gains, minimize losses