Slide 1

White Flight in the West?: Explaining thepersistence of white-minority segregationEric Kaufmann,Birkbeck College, University of Londone.kaufmann@bbk.ac.uk; twitter: @epkaufm

1White Flight?

2

3

Manchester 1991-2001London 1991-20014

USA 1970-2000Source: data from Card Mas & Rothstein 2008Source: Andersson Hammarstedt Neuman 2012

56White Flight?: Existing evidence baseUSA: white preference effects (Crowder & South, 2000); whites prefer whiter areas in showcard studies (Charles 2002; Clark 2006)Europe: No native flight in France (Rathelot & Safi 2013); White avoidance (Brama, 2006) ; As in USA, whites prefer whiter areas (van Londen 2012)UK: No white flight (Catney & Simpson, 2010)7DataUses 18 waves of BHPS (n=192171 person yrs) and waves 1-3 of Understanding Society (40,000 per yr)Attached to geo-referenced data at ward-level (BHPS linearly interpolated using 1991/2001/2011 census) to attach ward minority population, deprivation and population density.Ward-level diversity measured as either % minority, or by quintiles of minority population8

Predicted Ward Minority Change among Inter-ward Movers, 1991-2011 (BHPS/UKHLS)% Ethnic Minority in Ward a year ago% Change in Ethnic Minorities in Ward9

10

Predicted Probability of Move Away from Diversity, Inter-ward Movers, 2001-11 (ONS LS)Most Diverse WardWhitest wardProbability of move to less diverse ward quintile11Understanding Society Data 2009-12Significant sample of far right voters (UKIP, BNP, Other, N = 2,226), in addition to Tory voters to proxy for anti-diversity orientation12Understanding SocietyLarger sample size (40k v 10k)More attitudinal questions pertaining to neighbourhoodPeriod of rise of UKIP and BNPRight defined as UKIP+BNP+Conservatives, proxy for attitude to diversity among whitesRight x % minorities interaction

13White Flight?:Yougov-ESRC-BBK Survey, August 2013Moved To Whiter Ward past 10 yrsMoved To More Diverse Ward past 10 yrsSampleNot White British53%47%47White British62%38%239Total60%40%28614Comfort with spouse of different race among ward movers, White British only (Yougov/ESRC survey)To WhiterTo Diverse Samplevery comfortable61%39%83fairly comfortable67%33%33neither comfortable n57%43%46fairly uncomfortable64%36%11very uncomfortable76%24%25don't know58%42%24Total63%37%22215Local Council Wards in the UK have a population of about 10,000 to 30,000 people. Have you moved Local Council Ward to live somewhere new at any time in the past ten years? No 66.24% (1085) Yes 28.39% (465) Dont know 5.37% (88)

As far as you know, did the last Local Council Ward in which you lived have? More people from an ethnic minority background than the ward I now live in now 37.4% (174) Fewer people from an ethnic minority background than the ward I now live in now 22.8% (106) About the same number of people from an ethnic minority background than the ward I now live in now 23.2% (108) Dont know 16.6% (77)1617

18Cultural Amenities not Ethnocentrism?If the church bulletin board is where people advertise rooms for rent, blacks will rent rooms from blacks and whites from whites because of a communication systemcorrelated with color Thomas Schelling 1978White British family/friend/association networks and minority networks differ in England, affecting where people relocate once they decide to moveCultural amenities (food, recreation, religion) are also correlated with ethnic composition19Unconscious Segregation I: Social TiesSource: UKHLS 2009-1220Unconscious Segregation II: AmenitiesSource: Citizenship Surveys 2007-1121ConclusionWhites in Britain do choose whiter areas to move toWhite liberals who like diversity do not move to more diverse areas than white conservativesDifficult to support white flight thesis for BritainSegregation reproduced unconsciously through complex effects (amenities, family, status)ORCould be that pro-immigration whites are subconsciously as ethnocentric as anti-immigration whites

22White Flight in the West?: Explaining thepersistence of white-minority segregationEric KaufmannBirkbeck College, University of Londone.kaufmann@bbk.ac.uk; twitter: @epkaufm

23